Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Reverse Fan Fiction Friday: Ty and Colby Cook Up Mariners Trade Ideas

Episode Date: March 21, 2025

It's Fan Fiction Friday, but with a twist! This time, Ty and Colby come up with the trades for listeners to grade them on. Giveaway terms and conditions!Check out our Patreon!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolbySupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Wonderful PistachiosLooking for a snack that’s both delicious and nutritious? Get snackin’ and get crackin’ with the snack that packs a protein punch. Visit WonderfulPistachios.com to learn more.Supply HouseJoin the TradeMaster program today at SupplyHouse.com/TM and start ordering plumbing, HVAC, and electrical supplies with just a few clicks. Plus, use promo code S-H-5 for 5% off your first order. That’s SupplyHouse.com!UpworkVisit Upwork.com right now and post your job for free to connect with top talent and grow your business today! Just IngredientsVisit JustIngredients.us/Bryce-Harper and use code LOCKEDONMLB for 20% off your order! And for more wellness tips, follow @just.ingredients on Instagram.Monarch MoneyTake control of your finances with MonarchMoney. Use code LOCKEDONMLB at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONMLBfor $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime.FanDuelRight now, new customers can get TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in BONUS BETS when your first FIVE DOLLAR BET WINS! Download the app or head to FANDUEL.COM to get started. Bet with FanDuel—Official Partner of the NBA.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It's time for our last fan fiction Friday until the summer, but this time, you guys judge us. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors. It is Friday, March 21st, 2025. This is Tadena Gazzalas and Colby Patnode for the Lockdown Marys Podcast, part of the Lockdown podcast network, your team every day. This episode is brought to you by Fandul.

Right now, new customers can get $200 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. And as always, if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, you can check out our Patreon. All you have to do to check that out is click the link in the description of this episode. So it's Fan Fiction Friday, which is typically a show where you submit your marriage trade ideas. And we, of course, grade them on the 2080 scale. But today, we're switching roles. We're going to tell you our Mariner's trade ideas, and you in the comments below are going to grade us on the 2080 scale. 20, of course, being absolute garbage.

And 80, of course, being the best trade you've ever seen. Also, grading our trades is a very easy way for you to enter the giveaway. We've got going on right now. So before we hop into our trades, Colby, tell them what they can win and how to enter. Yeah, so we are doing what I would say is our biggest giveaway. to date, or at least potentially, like most of our giveaways, this is a tiered giveaway. There are certain thresholds we need to meet to add new

prizes to the prize pack. Now, typically, we just add a prize winner, but this time we're all putting it into one pile and one person who leaves a comment on a video posted between yesterday and the end of the Mariners first homestand is going to win all the prizes to which threshold we have met. So it's again, very simple to enter.

All you have to do, subscribe, leave a comment. Like Ty said today, really easy comment. You could just put a number down there. And I mean, to be fair, you could just put a number on any episode. Sure. That counts as a comment. But anyways, yeah, very easy today. But when we announced the giveaway, we had already crossed a threshold to give away this Victor Robles autograph card.

So somebody's going to walk away with that and a $25 gift certificate. to Simply Seattle. Somebody last night, we passed another threshold. And so we will be adding this J.P. Crawford autograph card and another $25 gift certificate to Simply Seattle. Next up, we're about 40 away from the next threshold, give or take, at the time of this recording. And next up would be this a Eugenio Suarez autograph card and another $25 gift certificate to Simply Seattle. Our hope is that we can get really close to 13K by the end of the Mariners first homestand. We're about, what, $240, 240-ish away from that.

So if we get there, we get all the way at 13K. The prize pack will also include this Felden-Selston autograph card and this Lazaro Montes autograph card and an additional $50 in Simply Seattle gift certificates. So, Grant Prize winner, if we reach our goal, we'll walk away with $125 in gift cards, simply Seattle and these five autograph cards. So, you know, subscribe, leave a comment. And even though it's not required, feel free to like the video as well. That would also help.

So, yeah, that's what we're doing. And, you know, like I said, already somebody's definitely walking away with $50 of simply Seattle gift cards and at J.P. Crawford and Victor Robles autograph cards. So we're off to a good start. But yeah, that's the good way we're doing this time around. And if you guys want more details, the terms and conditions are in the description down below. Yep, and also on whatever platform you might be listening to this on. But if you are listening just on a streaming platform, head on over to YouTube, leave a comment below and you're entered into the giveaway.

So, yeah. All right. Let's get into our trades here. Colby, you want to kick things off or should I go first? I would just like to say the following before we get started. Your 20 grades that are inevitably going to flood the comment section, they mean nothing. nothing to me. Hey, this was your idea. You wanted the smoke. I mean, well, first of all, I don't care about the smoke because, you know, every opinion I give without people's permission

makes me feel better about myself. So don't really care, you know, about your booze. I've seen what you cheer, blah, blah, blah. So yeah, go ahead. Do your worst. I don't read the comments anyway. So yes, he does. Only when I'm really bored. I look at the top three, the three latest. Sure. Sure. Although sometimes Google. or YouTube has like suggested, uh, uh, responses that are funny to read because sometimes are way out there. You're like, wow. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. So, uh, yeah. So, uh, yeah. So do your worst. I don't care. All right. Well, with that said, you going first then?

No, I don't care. All right. Fine. I'll go first. Why not? Uh, I got to trade here with the pirates. the mayor is get David Bednar and Isaiah kinder-falefa for

Harry Ford Teddy McGraw and Jared Sunstrom so the reason that Harry Ford is in the steel we're having to make it a lot of assumptions here right so I mean I think actually we probably should have started this by saying that we are assuming that the mares are buyers at the deadline very clear-cut buyers right and they're not doing like the buy and sell type of thing

like they are fully all in on buying at the deadline. So we are assuming here that David Bednar is pretty significantly better than he was last year and that he's closer to the guy. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. He's, he's a lot closer to the guy that he was instead of or that he was before last year

instead of the guy that he was this past year. So, yeah. So Ford, uh, McGraw, Sunstrom to the pirates for Bednar and kind of falafa, kinder of falafa. It's a rental. He gives you a guy that can move around the diamond. I give you some defense and is probably a league average bat at best. Yeah, and this deal, he's kind of a throw-in and you're just probably, the pirates are probably just looking for somebody to take that contract. Not that it would be a ton of money by the time this trade would happen.

Also, this is assuming that McGraw is healthy and pitching, of course. You need to also make that clear. Basically, it's four to McGraw for Bednar and then Sunstrom for Kenner-Falefa. Yeah, I think that's fine so long as the, like you said, Bednar is pitching well. Bullpen help is pretty darn expensive at the deadline, as we'll discuss here in a couple of my trades. So yeah, bullpen help is kind of a problem. Also, we should point out also that, you know, along with assuming a bunch of things here, we're also trying to kind of anticipate needs.

So like we may think that, you know, first base is a big need or third base is a big need. And we might get to July and be like, why waste time? They're fine there. Like look else. Maybe outfield is the need. And we just can't see that right now. So keep all that in mind. But yeah, I think that's, yeah, I think that's about right.

Again, assuming Bednar is closer to what he was in 2023. I believe he's got a year and a half left. Or he would have a year and a half left. That's why it's Harry Ford here. Yeah. Right. And I think the only reason Ford is like enough is because Badnar was really bad in 24.

Yeah. And I'm not assuming that he's like a two win reliever again. I'm assuming that he's like like a 0.7 to one win pitcher. Basically what Garcia was when the Mariners acquired him. Yeah, kind of. Last year. But you get him for the extra year and he's got just a slightly bigger track record. Yeah, he's got more track record.

All that. Yeah. At least it being like a high leverage reliever. Garcia last year was really a breakout year. for him at the age of like 34, 35. So really weird. But yeah, I have a similar-ish trade where I'm trading Harry Ford. Okay.

So we'll just jump over to that one. This is the least favorite one that I came up with. But yeah, so basically I have Trent Thornton, Harry Ford, and Tyler Guff, to the Marlins for Calvin Foshe and Anthony Bender. So Bender and Thornton, very similar. They're basically a wash, who cares? So really it's Guff and Ford for Foschet. And Fosier was very, very good last year. A big part of this, again, is he has to be as good this year.

The Marlins need talent desperately. And the Marlins have some very interesting bullpen pieces. So if you say, I don't want Fosha, I want Nardi. Like, okay. Like the cost still stands as it's, It's going to be expensive. These are relievers who are not elite. They don't have much of a track record.

So it's not going to be insanely expensive, but it's going to cost you something. It's going to hurt a little bit. Bolpin help is expensive to add at the deadline. Always has been, especially for the last four or five years. Even the, you know, you know, you could go get a rental reliever who's had, you know, having a good year. But it was kind of, you know, for the rest of his career, kind of like Garcia. You get him relatively cheap. It's still going to cost you something.

But a guy like Foshae, who's not even ARB eligible yet, a guy like Bender, who's got a year and a half, those guys are going to cost, assuming they're pitching well. So, yeah, it's aggressive. It's two relievers that I'm adding here. And again, based on what we know right now, could the Mariners use two relievers, one of them potentially high leverage to pair with Munoz and Santos? Yeah. Hopefully brash. Yeah. Like, yes, they could.

And as we know, if you're going to be a run prevention team, you probably should go all in on that a little bit and be aggressive with the bullpen. And the nice thing about this deal is, it doesn't cost you any money. You can't say, oh, we just can't afford to add that payroll in season. Yes, you can. There is no payroll to add. So, yeah, it's like I said, my least favorite. It's pretty boring.

But trades like this are trades that like really good teams make. And if the Mariners are playoff contenders and they're all in, this is a type of move I can see them making. Well, and Fochet is a high leverage reliever potentially who's also pre-Arb, right? Like you mentioned, and this costs you know money, but you also get him for a long time, right? So yeah, it's going to be pretty pricey. I know you were also kind of debating like if it was going to be Nardi or Foshae and the steel. Did you ever think about Foshae and Nardy instead of Foshae and Bender? Yeah, I mean, Nardi is interesting.

Obviously, he has to be healthy. And I, you know, I haven't been keeping track. I don't know how he's performing in spring, but did miss a good chunk of last year with some shoulder discomfort. So that's always a worrisome thing. And Nardi is probably, I mean, he's got like the highest ceiling. So there's a possibility Nardi is like, I mean, I don't want to say he's Josh Hater, but, you know, like Josh Hater, light. And now all of a sudden that cost me, Colt Emerson, like, I don't want to mess with that. He got placed on the 60 with lower back inflammation.

back on March 15th. Yikes. Yeah, so he might not even cost you Harry Ford now. Yeah. But who knows if he's even pitching by the time that we get to the. Yeah. To the. Big question right there.

But yeah. Yeah, I think Foshea and Bender, Bender feels like he's going to be a mariner this July. Yeah. But it just might be one of those like Will Schronberg or whatever for, for Anthony Bender type of deals. But yeah, I do think that. Seattle should be pretty aggressive on bullpen help, particularly high leverage bullpen help.

And I have another deal that addresses that a little bit later on. All right. Well, we'll go over that and more of our trades in just a moment. But first reminder, this episode of the Lockdown-Ares podcast is brought to you by both Fandul and Game Time. All right, folks, it's that time a year again. March Madness is finally here. And Fandul is giving you the chance to get in on the action like never before. Right now, new customers can get $200 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins.

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We are giving you our Mariners trades and you are grading them on the 2080 scale. Hope we have quite a few comments already down below on the first couple of trades that we've gone over. Here's my second trade of the day. This one's kind of a weird one. I tried to go after a player that most people probably aren't thinking about. It's a trade with the Blue Jays. It's a trade with the Blue Jays. Can I guess? Go for it.

Dalton Varsho. It is Dalton Varsho. I thought about that too, actually. Yeah. Dalton Varsho for Tai Pete and Ben Williamson. You get Varsho for, I believe, a year and a half. One year. I think it's one year. No, he's a free agent in 2027, I believe.

Oh, okay, I thought it said at the end of 2025. Yeah, no, he's, he's our, he's Super 2. So he's our four this winter. Okay, that makes sense. So Varshot, at best, a league average bat. At least that's what he's been in Toronto. And he's been well below that as well at times. I think he was like an 85 WRC plus in 2023.

But he's also arguably like a top three defender in all of baseball. Yeah, he might be the best defender. regardless of position in all baseball. Like he's in that conversation. Yeah. And I mean, like think about a defensive outfield potentially, assuming that Victor Robles is the least decent of Robles,

Julio and Varsho, right? Yeah. Um, I don't think it's enough. Uh, what was it, Tai Pete and Ben Williamson?

Yeah. I think it's really tough. The Blue Jays are kind of like the, the Rockies where it's just like they're so delusional that it's kind of like tough to navigate. And also, obviously, we're assuming that the Blue Jays are out. We're assuming that the Blue Jays are out.

We're assuming that Varsho is, again, at best, like, a league average bat, but he's hovering around a 100 WRC plus, but he's giving you elite defense. So he's still like a two and a half, three one player. Wasn't he like a five one player last year? Wasn't the defense that good? 3.3.

Was he ever a 5-1 player? He might have been Arizona. With that breakout here, maybe? Yeah. So, yeah, it's, I don't know because like It's interesting right Well because like it's just hard to factor in here because again the jays are delusional

But Randy or Rosanayna with a full extra year of club control Went for a little bit more than this in terms of talent but again it's a full year of club control So I would I would say I'd say if yeah like it's better it was a better return for randy than than this one Yeah but I mean not significantly I guess it depends on how you feel about Williamson. Yeah. Like Pete is obviously a high upside guy. Williamson's more of a floor guy.

So yeah, it's interesting. I assume the plan would be that he mostly plays left field and Randy with D.H. At that point, mostly. Yeah. Yeah. Obviously, again, you have three guys who could legitimately play center field. So everybody can rotate through the D.H and whatnot. Although you probably don't want Barshot D.Hing too much because you eliminate

the actual value that he brings. So really you want. Everyone's rotating except for Varsho. If he's playing, he's playing in the field. Otherwise he's no point playing him. Yeah, yeah. Dylan Moore at the plate. Like, okay.

A little bit better. But you know what I mean. So yeah, that's interesting. I thought about Varshow too. I thought he was a rental though. So that's where I was at. But yeah, no, I think you probably need a, you probably need like a Harry Ford in there, would be my guess.

Harry Ford, yeah. Yeah, I don't know. Because again, we talk about this a lot. Harry Ford is such a polarizing prospect. Yeah. I don't know if the Blue Jays would love them or hate them. I don't know. But yeah, it's certainly interesting.

And it is leaning into the run prevention thing, just not on the pitching side of it. So yeah, it's an interesting idea. We'll have to check in on that in July if the Jays are out of it. Because obviously a lot of the focus will be on a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. potential trade. And there are other pieces on that roster. that could help Seattle.

Yeah. All right. What's your next trade? Do I want to do the speaking of Vlad? I'll just admit right now I have a flawed trade as well. I'll save it. Yeah. We'll save them.

So next up I have a trade for a player that was perhaps more solidly linked to the Mariners than just about anybody this winter. and it's not the one you're thinking of, I can guarantee it. Okay. So I have them trading Gregory Santos. Okay. Michael Morales and Tyler Locklear. Okay.

To the Washington Nationals for Nathaniel Lowe. Ooh. So. Good call. Yeah. Yes. Lowe, the Mariners, we were told repeatedly, and not us, but like Adam Jude wrote about it, Ryan did it, Daniel Kramer, that the Mariners really like Lowe.

and they wanted to put together an aggressive offer, but the Rangers were just like, no, we're not trading low to you. The Nationals probably going to be sellers to some degree. Like, they're one of the few teams now. I do think they're building something pretty nice over there, but they're at least a year or two away. Santos gives them a desperately needed bullpen arm who can help them now

and also is, you know, club controlled for the next three, four years on top of it. Locklear is kind of like that, hey, take a shot of him for half a year, see if he's your first basement of the future, if he's not, whatever. Morales, solid prospect. He's just, he's going to keep getting pushed down the Mariners ranks. They have other starting pitcher options who are just better. So it's kind of a bulk deal. But again, we're talking about a year and a half of a non-elite, first base only bat,

who doesn't really slug all that much despite playing, you know, most of his games in Texas. So, yeah, we'll see how he does in Washington. The nice thing about Lowe is that he is, not a splits guy. He hits lefties and right. He's very well equally. He's basically left-handed tie france. A little more athleticism.

But who cares? You're trading for the bat. It is just a solid bat. You could hit him second. You get him third. You hit him fifth, you know, six,

and it just extends the lineup. And the thought here would be is that hopefully by this point, you have Brash back and he's healthy and looking good. You have COAR back. He's healthy and looking good. Taylor. And so you kind of have this extra bullpen arm that, again,

like we talk about bullpen arms, pretty expensive at the deadline. So I think this is an interesting one. Lowe is a guy that I think the Mariners are going to try to get this July. And if they don't get him July, I think they'll try to get them in the winter. It does seem like they really like Lowe. And based on all the information we have right now, not in July, could you fit Lowe onto this roster?

Sure, he's the primary first baseman. Now Luke Raley is freed up to move around the outfield and also D.H. Solano, you could still get him time at first. base at third base at dh if you need to doesn't really affect him all that much so yeah i think this is an interesting bad and and low is basically like salano only younger with more upside so yeah i think this is an interesting and he'll put the ball over the wall more than salano too sure i mean he's not like a 25 homer guy but he'll he'll he'll put up 15 like it's it's very tie france it really is like good tie france good time not 2023 24 tie france yeah yeah yeah

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You're listening to the Lockdown Airs Podcast, so we've got a couple more trades to go over. I have a three-team deal. I wanted to try and hit like all the classics of fan fiction Friday. As much as we try, as much as we say like you got to watch three team deal with Jerry de Poto. I don't know if he's made three. Technically, I don't know if he's made one because like the shed long sunny gray trade.

Like they kind of was like a day after separate trades. So I don't know if he's ever technically made one a three-team trade. At least I'm with the Mariners that I can remember off the top of my head. Yeah. So. But yeah, so, you know, we always get three team trades. Yeah, I wanted to take a stab at one. This one actually isn't going to be too hard to keep track of, though, because there's only six players involved.

So it's a deal. It's a deal with the raise and the Cubs. Okay. I'm pretty sure I know where this is going. Yep. So the Marrars get Pete Fairbanks and Nico Horner. Yep. The Rays get Harry Ford and Tai Pete. And the Cubs get Matt Brash and Brandon Lowe.

So the Cubs trade Horner for Lowe and Brash. Yep. They get a second base replacement who has the same amount of club control as basically at the same price point. you are giving up defense in that regard but you're getting more pop and that bullpen well it's a pretty decent bullpen they don't have a clear cut high leverage dude like they traded for ryan presley but presley's like not that dude anymore they don't think he is anymore yeah uh the rays get forward and pete two guys that we know that they like a lot for they have yeah for fairbanks and lough which i think if you were just trading for lao and fairbanks that would be

pretty close if not right on the money and uh yeah the marries trade ford pete and brash to go get fairbanks for a year and a half and horner for a year and a half yeah that's interesting uh the cubs seems like a no-brainer for them um now the raise i don't know um i heard some interesting information about how the race have valued Yandi Diaz this winter, including one of the most laughably awful trade proposals I've ever heard. So the race are weird. You know, he'd be like, oh, they're asking the moon for this guy. But then like, Parabanks, they're like, ooh, we really like Tyler Guff.

Like, we love his spin rates. And we're just like, okay. So the race are a tough team to deal with in regard to, like, us. knowing how to value who the raise would value. Jerry just seems to have no problem working with the raise, and that's the important part here. So it feels, I don't know if the raise would do it. I think they're the ones that would be holding this up a little bit,

but, you know, because it's such a no-brainer for the Cubs, like would the Cubs be willing to add, I don't know, Owen Casey or somebody like that? Alcantra, maybe, maybe the catcher, catching prospect they have. Maybe. And at that point, I think the raise probably need to consider it. it. Low, I don't think, they seem to really want to hold on down, but I don't know if that's just because nobody wants to pay ridiculous prices for them.

But they do seem to like them a lot. So that's an interesting trade. It feels a little light on the Tampa side, but also, again, like, who knows, you know, Tampa will make bulk deal sometimes. They'll take less than you think a player is worth. And then, oh, turns out they're right. Like, what a surprise. So, and we know that above.

all the Tampa Bay Rays freaking love athletic dudes who play up the middle. Well, yeah. And for the raise, it's like you're getting two top 10 Mariners prospects, one of whom plays a position of great need for you.

Probably major league ready. And at that point, he's probably reporting to your big league club after the trade. So, yeah, I don't know. It's a really interesting deal. It's just like, where are the Cubs

at in that moment. What does Brash look like at that moment? Yeah. But I think even if the Cubs are getting like a Matt Brash who's like 85% of the brash that we know and love, I think they go, well, let's just bank on the upside here. And we get him for what, three more years after this. Right. Yeah.

Yeah. Interesting. I think you probably also want to see how Nico Horner is. I mean, of course. Yeah. Going on the I.L. with a shoulder thing. I probably want to make sure he's okay

But obviously again, we're assuming a lot And therefore we should assume that Brash is assuming that the Cubs are competitive still Yeah, yeah, which they probably will be I would say it also assumes that the rays are competitive But again, the raise, man, like They don't they make a trade when they feel like that's the best deal Whether it makes a ton of sense for their major league roster or not

So you're not very concerned with timelines just a strange freedom. So I So I think I'll do my Vlad trade now. And I think that my proposal will be I'll be told that it's not enough,

would be my guess. Yeah, I would assume the same with mine. But it's about as far as I'm willing to go. Right. But I would say this is I brought the receipts on this one. So you get a rental. It is about 60 games of Vlad Jr.

Right. And Vlad Jr. was amazing last year. The year before, he was very good, but he wasn't elite, right? He's kind of, you know, either he oscillates between very good and elite. Yes. So there's no really knowing how you, and plus in a 60 game sample size, anybody can struggle, especially changing teams in the middle of the year. So keep that in mind.

You're getting a rental. here. And just think back to like the last 10 years, who are the biggest rental bats that have been traded at the deadline? It might take you while. There hasn't been a lot of them. Rental bats don't get moved that off, not like potential superstars. So I went back and I looked in the ones that Mani Machado, superstar player, more so than superstar bat. He was a rental to the Dodgers. You look at Nelson Cruz rental to the Tampa Bay raise. You look at Chris. You look at Chris Bryant, Rental to the Giants. And the one that I thought was most interesting is you look at J.D. Martinez,

when he was traded from Detroit to Arizona, rental there. Martinez had an incredible year that year. And he was 29 years old. And he actually saw some outfield value there. So I think Martinez is a pretty good comp. And when you look at what Martinez got, he got Dewell Lugo and I think Sergio Alcantra. Those are two good prospects. in the Detroit system, they were not elite prospects, or in the Arizona's.

They were not elite prospects by any stretch. And both of those players spectacularly flamed out. When you look at the Chris Bryant thing, again, a couple good prospects, not elite prospects. Manny Machado, it was more of a bulk deal. You know, Dean Kramer was in that deal. He was probably the best piece they got eventually. But, again, one good prospect, not an elite prospect. So the idea that you should have to give up Colt Emerson for Vlad Jr. is frankly ridiculous.

So what I'm looking for here, when I look at for two months of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., I still went aggressive based on the comps that I found, the JD, the Bryant, Machado, and the Nelson Cruz ones. I still want aggressive relative to those, but it might not be as aggressive as you think. But it is Vlad Jr. or Michael Arroyo and Taipei. And I think that is an incredibly aggressive offer for a two-month bat. So that's- Mine is more aggressive than yours. I'll say that. But you got two of the guys that are in my package.

Okay. So yeah, it's important to keep in mind that when teams do this, right, they do look at cops. It's like buying a house, right? You want to see the cops of what similar houses in your area go for. And Vlad Jr., is he better than all those other bats?

No. J.D. Martinez was really, really good. Deer, he was traded. He's younger, but if you're only getting a guy for two months, you don't really care about the age, do you? That's not actually a selling point. And something else to keep in mind is that the Blue Jays, as of this moment, are above the luxury tax threshold,

and they are not a revenue share team. They do not get revenue sharing, which means that if they keep Vlad, as things stand right now, if they keep him and offer him the qualifying offer and just let him leave in free agency he leaves the blue jays don't get a pick after the first round they don't get a pick after the second round they get a pick after the fourth round now they're only slightly over the the luxury tax so they can definitely dump some salary midseason as they would if they traded blad and they would get below that but even then they would still only get a pick after the second round so that's

the choice they have let blad leave and test free agency and progress probably can sign elsewhere and get a pick in the 70s or trade him in July and probably get a couple of very good but not elite prospects. The choice seems pretty easy. And again, this is why they should have traded him last summer because if they did last summer, the price would be probably twice as high. All right. So my Vlad package is Cole Young, Michael Oroyo, Tai Pete, and Tyler Locklear for Vlad and Jimmy Garcia comes back. yeah yeah that's an overpay based on the comps but again yeah you know you just certainly get the Mariners up by four or five games in the a west or whatever and then they're

like competing for the best record in baseball yeah you might be willing to overpay this is also this is also assuming that blue jays are out of it of course but also Vlad is on a tear right like Vlad contract year or I'm trying to maximize as much money I'm trying to maximize my contract as much as possible. It's upcoming winner. He's going nuts, right? So, yeah. Yeah.

I like my trade better. It's closer to the comps. But, yeah, again, you know, it only takes one team to blow the comps. And Seattle might be in a position to do it. And it might make a lot of sense. But understand this. Just people typing away furiously in the comments. getting Vlad for two months

does not increase the likelihood that he signs an extension before he's not at all. It is not. He's going to have. He's leaving. He's leaving. He is going to play.

If the mayor's were to acquire him, he would play 60 games max, plus whatever in the playoffs, right? Yeah. And then he's gone. Yeah. So you have to be content with trading

Cole Young, Michael Royal. Six years of Cole Young, who's major league ready, by the way, or close to it. At this point, almost certainly would be. You know, six years of Michael Oroyo,

who could conceivably be in the big leagues next year. Yeah. So, and could also, you could also kind of be selling low on Michael. If Oroyo does what he did last year again, he's a top 50 prospect in baseball. So it's a big risk here. And that is why typically, A, these elite bats don't get traded at the deadline. It's such a big risk.

But Vlad is just kind of this perfect storm of like, again, the Blue Jays are delusional. they're out of it. They're not going to get much for him. They're not going to get a great comp pick. If he leaves, that's just not going to have. At most, they're getting a pick in the 70s. At worst, they're getting a pick after the fourth round.

So trading him for a couple of good prospects who are much closer to the big leagues. Plus, Blue Jays, their team, they're not going to want to do a five-year rebuild, even if they know they're losing flat. They're incredibly stupid for not trading him last deadline. They're stupid for not trading him this winter. And as a result, unless they surprise a lot of people, and actually make a pretty good playoff run, they're going to get,

they're going to get half of what they could have gotten for them last year, and they're going to have nothing to show for it. So it's a big risk by Toronto, but this is what happens when you're delusional, you know, and you don't understand your timeline and you're desperate to save your job, Mark. So, yeah, keep that in mind.

The Vlad thing's not going to go away, especially if the Jay struggle, he's going to be probably the most talked about player in Seattle for a couple months. And if Chicago also simultaneously struggles, then we're going to hear a lot about Kyle Tucker as well. I don't have a Kyle Tucker trade, but he would fall more into the Blatt Jr.

where it's like, yeah, look at the comps of the gym. I feel like that would be, I feel like the packages that we put together would be pretty close. Yeah. They might change a little bit because the Cubs are probably, even if they lose Tucker,

like they trade him or they lose them in free agency. They're probably still going to try and compete next. year. So, I mean, plus Tucker actually helps you defensively and on the bases and all that stuff. So it might cost a little more. But yeah. Yeah.

It's going to be pricey, but I don't think it's going to be as pricey as people assume. And under no circumstance, would I give up Colt Emerson for two months of Vlad Jr. Not happening. It is immediate conversation over. All right. You have one more trade, right? Yep. Yeah.

And then that's it. Also, this one. comes with a comp. So this one will have the reverse effect where people will be like, that's way too much to give up for this. So, but again, reminder, your booze mean nothing to me. I've seen what makes you cheer. Boo.

Uh-huh. So we are trading Michael Arroyo. Okay. Logan Evans. Arroyo, by the way, could be Formello, could be Les. It's a top 50-ish prospect in baseball, probably. Sure, sure. Arroyo, Logan Evans, Tyler Locklear, and Jeter Martinez.

Okay. To the Cardinals for Ryan Halsley and Jojo Romero. It's a lot to give up for a rental reliever. For a couple of relievers, yeah. Look at the Tanner Scott trade just last year. That's true. No, you're right. You're absolutely right.

They gave up Adam Mazer. It's very close to Evans, very similar to Evans. They gave up Graham Pauley Very similar to Lockler. They gave up another high upside arm, very similar to Martinez. And the prize of that deal,

Robbie Snelling, was about the 50th best prospect in baseball at the time. He's legit, number one in a lot of systems. They gave up a ton to get half a year, or 60 games, and really because it's a reliever, 20 games.

of an elite established elite reliever. And a year and a half of a solid middle guy having a good year. They also got Brian, is it hoeing, boring, something like that. Yeah, yeah. They got two relievers out of that. But this is what it cost. This is roughly what it costs to get Tanner Scott. Ryan Helsley, same neighborhood as Scott, probably a bigger track record than Tanner Scott even though.

So it seems like a lot. But when you look at the Tanner Scott Comp, I think I pretty much matched it one for one to what that actual deal was. And interestingly enough, Helsley and Romero both had the same club control as the two arms that the Padres acquired at the deadline. So if you want an elite reliever, I've been saying this all day, if you want an elite reliever at the deadline, it's pricey. It is very expensive at the deadline to get these guys. So if you want Ryan Helsley, if he's big on your target list, this is probably what it costs. So be prepared for that. which is why I wouldn't be shocked at all

if Jerry was just like, you know, I don't think that's something they would do. I don't think. I think like the Bednar thing, the Bednar trade that I brought up is probably the most aggressive they would get on a reliever. Yeah, but hells is something better. And that's also assuming that like Bednar is just like a 0.7 to 1 one.

Right. Well, I think ultimately the Mariners would much rather just go, you know, sign or go trade like guff or mcgraw for uh here's a guy that has a sweeper that we really like we're going to trade for him yeah yeah like i think they'd much they'd much rather do the garcia thing again than they would give up elite prospects for a rental or lever that's just not something they're likely going to do yeah but again if you want ryan hellsley yeah you're in luck his price was established less than a year ago.

We know what he's going to cost. And this is pretty much point for point what it cost the Padres to acquire him. So that seems right on the money. You're not going to, you're not going to tell me that that is a ridiculous asking price. Because I did the research on this. That is the comp.

Do you want him or not? You can definitely say, I don't want to pay that for a rental reliever. That's fine. Yeah. That is what it costs to get. And that's kind of where I land, where I'm just like. Me too. I'm like, yeah.

I'd rather take the chance on Brash and CoR and like. Well, it also just depends on, yeah, it also just depends on, you know, where, where is this team at,

right? What are the other needs? This team has. Yeah. No, no, it's allocation of resources though. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. And I just, I'm not sure if that's kind of like, within their philosophy to do that. No, I don't think it is either, but again,

more than anything, this is a trade to show people. This is what it costs. Yeah. Yeah. It's absolutely the Tanner Scott deal. Yep. Yep.

Yeah. Yeah. all right well uh there you have it looking forward to uh seeing all of your thoughts and your grades uh down in the comments below uh that's it for fan fiction friday for a little while we'll probably boot it back up in in june we'll see where the team is at at that point what kind of trades you guys are thinking about uh we'll see what kinds of uh players uh kind of carry over from the off season fan fiction fridays which new players we start to hear about because that always happens Right. So yeah, it should be fun.

But that's it. And now we're going to get ready to go into regular season mode. So starting Monday, mailback Monday. Tuesday we got our flag players. Wednesday we got our Mariners predictions. And then Thursday, we got our opening day preview. So, yeah, all right. That is going to do it for us.

Thank you so much for joining us here on the Locktime Mariners podcast for Colby Patnode. I'm Tadeng Gazzalus. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Marrers. You can follow me at Tiding Azelis and Colby at CPAT 11. That's C-PAT-1. Or also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby, and the show at Lockdown Mariner's.

Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time. Peace.