Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Robbie Ray Struggles Again as Mariners Drop 9-2 Blowout to Orioles

Episode Date: June 2, 2022

Hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode recap the Mariners' 9-2 loss to the Orioles and Robbie Ray's continued struggles, then look at Jarred Kelenic's hot start in Triple-A and debate whether or not it matters, then finally preview Seattle's upcoming rubber match in Baltimore.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you.Blue NileMake your moment sparkle with jewelry from Bluenile.com, and LOCKED ON SPORTS listeners get $50 off purchases of $500 or more using code LOCKEDON.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Robbie Ray struggled with spotty command and gave up his 11th home run of the year while Sergio Romo had arguably the worst outing of his entire 15-year career as the Orioles blew out the Mariners by a score of 9 to 2 on Wednesday night. We're going to be talking about that as well as Jared Kellnick's recent hair in AAA Tacoma and tonight's rubber match in Baltimore on today's episode of Lockdown Mariners. Colby, hit it. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. It is Thursday, June 2nd, 2020, and this is the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Thank you so much for making us your first listen of the day.

We are free and available on all platforms. I'm Taday-D-N-G-G-D-A-N-L-L-E. He's Colby-Pat-N-A-N-N-A-N-O-B-C-E. We cover the Mariners over at Inside the Mariners. Be sure to follow the show on Twitter at L-O-U-U-N-R-O-N-S. You can follow me at D-A-N-G-N-G-N-Z-L-Z. You can follow me at D-N-Z-L-Z-Z-E and Colby at C-P-E-E-T-E-E-T-E-L-E. one. Be sure to also check out our Patreon at patreon.com forward slash control of zone. We typically

post two additional shows on there every week and get into some bigger ideas and bigger topics, whereas Lockdown Mariners covers more of the day-to-day with the M's. We also get into some non-baseball discussions over on Control of Zone as well. It's a fun time. So be sure to check it out. Again, that's patreon.com forward slash control of zone. And if this is your first time joining us here on the Lockdown Mariners podcast, welcome to the show. If you like what you hear, give us a follower, subscribe, wherever you listen to this. And if you're watching us on YouTube, hit the subscribe button. the notification bell. Give this video a thumbs up. We greatly appreciate it. So as I mentioned in

the cold open, we're going to be talking about Jared Kelnick, who's off to a strong start in AAA since being demoted back in mid-May. We're also going to be talking about tonight's rubber match between the Orioles and the Mariners. Got Chris Flexing on the bump going up against Jordan Liles. But first, we need to get into last night's game, which was a brutal one for the Seattle Mariners. after shutting out the Orioles by a score of 10 to nothing on Tuesday night, the Mariners came back to Camden Yards and pretty much reversed rolls getting blown out themselves. Final score 9 to 2 Orioles in this one, and the biggest reason, of course, as is the case with any blowout loss,

was the pitching for the Mariners. Another underwhelming start in a Mariners uniform for Robbie Ray, just five innings of work with spotty command and some really bad armside misses at times. and the offense couldn't get it going either. And Robbie Ray, of course, also gave up his 11th home run of the season to Rugnett O'Dore, which was absolutely obliterated to Utah Street, a three-run shot. That is Ray's 11th home run of the season allowed, which ties him for fourth most in Major League Baseball with Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs.

And then finally, Sergio Romo got into this game in the bottom of the six, and it was actually well within reach for the YM's. It was just four to two. Orioles at the time. But Romo, and I'm not exaggerating when I say this, out of the 15 years that he's played in Major League Baseball, last night may have been the worst outing he's ever had in his entire career. He gives up three home runs.

That is the first time ever in his career. He's ever given up three home runs in one single outing. He gives up a solo shot to Ryan Mountcastle, then a solo shot to Ramon Urius. And then after an RBI double by Cedric Mullins, he gives up a two-run shot to Trey Man's, Sini. Five earned runs in total. That's just the third time in Ramos career that he's given up five earned runs. That was just the third time in his career that he's given up two home runs and a single outing. I mean, it was just one of those nights for the Mariners. It's one of those weird baseball nights. Let's talk about Ray first though, because this is, I mean, it's just it, it isn't getting better. I mean, he's not an absolute disaster necessarily, but he hasn't been particularly good either. I mean, what did you see? from him last night.

Yeah, just really struggled with mostly command. It, you know, it's just one of those things where with Ray, it feels like it's, you know, one step forward, two steps back, and it happens, you know, in innings, not even in games. And it's not even, you know, in stretches of games. It's just, you never know what you're going to get inning to inning. And, you know, last night he had three walks. A lot of, a lot of stuff. off in the middle of the plate, you know, 89 pitches and five innings. So it wasn't an easy

five innings either. He just didn't really have the good command of his stuff. You know, and it kind of looked like, well, there's the beginning. And then he settled in a little bit. But it was a real backbreaker when Seattle cut the lead to three to two. And then Ray went out there and got two outs and then just couldn't finish it off properly. It's becoming increasingly easy to see when he is going to implode. Basically, what you're looking at is you're looking for a guy to get in scoring a position and then you're looking for an armside miss. And when you see those two things or a walk and then another armside miss, it means he's

completely lost his release point. He's lost feel and command and control and it's going to take him a couple batters to get it back. And by the time he does, there's usually a lot of damage that has been done. And that just goes to show you. great for 20 batters, but if you're absolutely lose it for five, you're going to lose a lot of games because that's the level of skill you're going up against, even against bad offenses. So, yeah, it just didn't get much value out of the fastball.

He only had four whiffs on that pitch. We did see him at 96, once or twice, which was good to see, but not that meaningful. And even the slider wasn't, it wasn't bad. but it wasn't great. He threw 38 of them. He got 11 whiffs. But it just wasn't as sharp as we had seen in previous outings. Ray was on a little bit of a run there over his last, I don't know, three, four starts.

And then last night just felt like a massive step backwards because it was. I mean, to be frank. So it's just not an acceptable outing against a team like Baltimore, especially when you're trying to write the ship. and he's supposed to be the ace and all that stuff. So just combine all that. He just didn't have the good command, the good control. He walked three guys, which is a bit unusual for him.

And he just didn't generate nearly the whiffs that he should have against this lineup. And so give Baltimore some credit. They got to him. But also, Robbie Ray just did not pitch well. And it's a bummer because momentum, you know, the old adage, momentum is only as good as your next day starting pitcher. And now they have to roll. rely on Chris Flexen to try and win tonight.

And while Chris has pitched well at times, he's also pitched incredibly poorly at times. And this is a series the Mariners really need to win. Yeah. And if they don't, I mean, that's pretty much a similar feeling to, you know, how it felt after you lost a series of the A's, which was another series in which you won game one and then fell apart in games two and three. And that's been kind of a routine here now for the Mariners. I think this is now the fourth or fifth time this season here in the early going

that they've won game one and then lost game two. And then typically they've lost game three in those instances as well. So hopefully that trend does not continue in this series because they absolutely need to win. But yeah, talking about Ray, 16 whiffs for Ray in this one, which is the first time in those last three starts that he's fallen under 20 swings and misses. and you mentioned it, you know, given the circumstances of this game of the series of the matchup and who Robbie Ray is supposed to be for this team, it's unacceptable, frankly. And I mean, you know, I don't want to overreact here.

I don't think that the Robbie Ray signing is a disaster for the Mariners yet. I know a lot of people do right now, but, you know, it's still very early. But yeah, this is disappointing so far what we've seen out of Robbie Ray. I can't lie about it at this point I mean there's no other way to really go about saying this really it's just it's really disappointing he hasn't been anywhere near

as good as I expected even with accounting for possible regression from where he was last year right it's been worse than that and yeah I mean you know he's supposed to be obviously he's not an ace right he's just you know he so happens to be the number one

pitcher in the Mariners rotation though, and as the number one in that rotation, you need to get better production out of him, particularly against teams like the Orioles, who yeah, they have some talent in their lineup. We talked about that, you know, over the last couple of episodes that this is a

talented team, a more talented team than their record would indicate. Right. But even then, this is still the worst team in the ALE East. You're playing in this ballpark, which is a little bit more favorable for pitchers now, and just

weren't able to get it done. He gave up four. Yeah, that's just not going to play if you're Robbie Ray. The Mariners just need better out of him, quite frankly. So we're going to be talking about Jared Kelnick in just a moment because he is off to a pretty good start down in AAA. But does it really matter? We're going to be discussing that in just a moment. Real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by Rock Auto.

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Amazing selection, reliably low prices, all the parts your car will ever need, rockato.com. You're listening to Lockdown Mariners. Thank you again for making us your first listen of the day. Now, before we talk about Jared Kellnick, we have an important favor to ask you. We've put together a survey so we can learn more about listeners like you and make your favorite locked on podcast even better. This is your opportunity to tell us what you like and don't like about locked on podcasts.

Go to lockdownpodcast.com slash survey right now to get started. It won't take very long and everyone that completes a survey can qualify for a chance to win one of 10, $100 ticket master gift cards. To take our audience survey, go to locked on podcast.com slash survey. Thank you for your help. All right. So it's been a pretty good two weeks here for Jared Kellnick down in AAA Tacoma. Right now he is slashing 321, 367, 643 with four home runs and a WRC plus of 145. He's got a seven-game hitting street going on.

Right now he's got a four-game extra base hit street going on right now. As well, he hit a lead off home run and last night's game against Reno. But I wrote an article today on Inside the Mariners. inside the mariners.com or s.com forward slash mb forward slash mariners please check it out that's our new website and uh i talked about or i asked the question rather does it matter and frankly i don't think it does and i'll tell you why here

because look last year jerry kellnick was demoted to triple a in the summer and he played 24 games and uh he was pretty good you know he had 306 386 626 622 in 24 games. Those are pretty familiar numbers, right? And then he came back up and in, I believe it was mid-July. And he struggled again. He struggled in August. And then he broke out in September, of course, and that kind of instilled this false sense of confidence in the Mariners that he was going to be there every day. You know, left field or right-field or center field or whatever the plan was at the start of the offseason.

And they didn't really do anything in the outfield other than acquiring Jesse Winker. of course. But there was a pretty big reliance on Kellnick being good right from the get-go. And of course, as we found out, that was unfortunately not the case for the Mariners and not the case for Kellnick. And so, you know, there's also some concerning signs here with Kellnick's stat line as well. It's not perfect by any stretch of the imagination. He's had 60 plate appearances thus far. 23 of them have resulted in strikeouts.

I'd say 38.3% strikeout rate. So again, while AAA numbers are more or less meaningless, and typically the positive numbers don't necessarily translate to big league success, the high, very, very, very high strikeout rate indicates that there are still glaring holes in Kelnick's game. This is not something that he is suddenly fixed in two weeks. He is still, I wouldn't say, broken, but certainly in need of some form of repair here. And that hasn't changed with what he's done. And no box score, no Twitter video is going to change that. Really, you know, my feeling on it

right now is that none of us are going to know whether Jared Kelnick is ready or not until the Mariners say he is. Because it's really the things that he needs to work on, the things that are important here are not stats or not if he can hit a bunch of home runs and get on base a ton it's the mental side of things and it's as mechanics and both of those things we are not going to learn like i said from a 20 second twitter video or a box score from my lb mariners we're just not colby i mean am i wrong here like is there something that we should take from kelnick's success so far or is this just mean of us.

You know, I see the video, same as you and all that stuff, and I look at the numbers, and yeah, they're good. And the videos seem to show that he is at least now willing to go the other way. I think two of his home runs have been to left center field. He had to triple the dead center field. We've seen him flip multiple base hits in the left field on pitches that were, you know, on the outside corner. And at the major league level, he was not.

doing that. He was not capable of doing that. So, you know, whether that's just because the stuff down there isn't quite as good. So he's, you know, feeling more comfortable in waiting. That extra, you know, split second before deciding whether or not to swing, I don't know. But there does appear to be some positives, but at the end of the day, you can't run a 38% strikeout rate in AAA and expect to find success at the big leagues. That, that profile just doesn't work. And he's only walking 6% of the time. So it's not even like a Joey Gallo situation where he's striking out 35% of the time,

but he's walking 15. So it's, you know, okay. He needs to cut down on the strikeouts. He needs to walk a little bit more. And to me, he's still weeks, if not months away from being a realistic option for the Seattle Mariners. Especially since we know Upton will be up here pretty quick. And Taylor Tremel continues to produce.

And again, it's a very short sample with Tremel, but so far he's been good. We know that they're going to put Upton on this big league roster, and we know he's going to play, you know, get a good run, probably at least a couple weeks and not a month, six weeks, something like that. So, yeah, he's still, to me, I'm not even touching Kelnick. I'm not even broaching the idea until at least July.

And then we'll see where he's at. But he has to cut down on the strikeouts regardless of, you know, what the rest of the numbers look like. It's just it's not going to sustain major league success if you're striking out almost 40% of the time in AAA. Yeah. I mean, that's just that's that's the big red flag right there. Just flashing neon sign like, hey, calm down your expectations right now. Calm down your excitement. there is no excitement to glean from any positive numbers in AAA.

It means nothing. It is pixie dust. It does not exist. Rarely, rarely does AAA numbers, positive ones at least, translate to, you know, what you're going to be able to do at the big league level. But like you said, the concerning sides definitely translate. That definitely, you know, exemplifies what might or at least projects, rather, what might happen once you get to the big league level.

And right now he's still, he's got to work on stuff. And look, you know, I know the Mariners are 20, 21 and 29 right now. They need some outfield help. Jared Kelnick isn't that right now. And even though that the Mariners are fourth place in the EOS and things are, you know, kind of seemingly falling apart for them and all that, they are still nowhere near a position right now where they can have forfeit at bats for the sake of development. That's not this point in time yet.

and so and quite frankly, you know, they're not going to be able to give him the abats he requires because they're not going to be able to afford having the possibility of a black hole in their lineup, another black hole in their lineup

because they already have at least two right now and their lineup on most nights, if not three on most nights. And so they're not going to continue to create that again and, you know, and have Kellnick face, quality major league talent that is going to overpower him.

It would be a disservice to the team and it would be a disservice to him to call him up as quickly as they did the last time he was demoted. Because again, it was only 24 games that he was down there after he got demoted last summer. And then he brought him back up. And like I said, again, he struggled in July. He struggled in August. And then he had that breakout on September, which was honestly, now that we kind of have the full picture here of what happened, you know, after you came back from the off season

it's kind of just nothing short of a miracle like for Kelnick that that month of September. So I just, it would be unwise for the Mariners to force this issue and to press this issue because, you know, and Jerry DePoto has talked about extending a life raft to, to, you know, his,

his floundering prospects. And like Kelnick, you know, really right now, nothing in his stat sheet indicates whether he's just keeping his head above water or actually swimming ashore and we're really not going to know that until the mariners say whether or not that is the case and yeah and i mean one thing they're not going to do is they're not going to rush kelnick because they have to prove the deal was good or jerry's worried about his job now and so yeah they have to get calick has to hit so you can prove that jerry's good at his job none of that BS is going to happen

because A, well, Jerry's job is not in danger as much as some people may want it to be. It's not and it shouldn't be. But also, you know, I feel like it's important to keep pointing this out. Jared Kelnick is 22 years old. Yeah. He doesn't turn 23 until next month. Yeah, so I have an interesting note on that. So this comes from Luke Arkins, a prospect insider.

There are only 21 players right now in AAA that are younger than Jerry Kelnick. I was going to say he's about six and a half, seven years younger than the average AAA player. So, yeah, he's young for AAA. If Jared Kellanick was drafted as a college player, if he had gone to college, this would be his first year in Pro Bowl. Yeah. Right.

And he's already gotten 450 plate appearances in the majors. So the Mariners aren't going to rush him because they don't need Kellnick to be good right away. It's not hurting their window that he's not good right now. is it hurting him this season sure but is the window now shut because kelnick hasn't gotten it going no it's not he's only 22 he turns 23 in about six weeks and there's just no reason to rush him there's no reason to give up on him there's no reason to panic on him and so the mariners aren't going to do any of that they will call up jerk kellnick when they believe he can succeed against major

league pitching um i'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt i think they've earned some of that But for me, it would be at least another month and a serious reduction in the strikeouts. But we'll see what they decide. But I would be pretty shocked if he's up before, I'd say June 30th. I'd be pretty surprised. And quite frankly, at this point, especially if the Mariners are going to be in a position where maybe they turn this thing around and they're starting to compete, peace stays the whole year in AAA. So be it. If that's what helps.

If that's what fixes him, then so be it. Because the next time that they call him up, I'm just going to say it, they need to be happy. they need to be absolutely sure that he's going to be able to contribute to some degree. They have to be absolutely sure that that's going to be the case this time. They cannot, they cannot rush him back. They can not do the thing that they did last year. Like I said, we're 24 games. Oh, look, he's producing in AAA. All right, cool, we're good.

No, no, don't do that. If he give him 50 games, give him 60 games, give him 100 games. It doesn't matter. As much time as he needs, give it to him. Do not rush this thing whatsoever. Again, just let him reset. let him get into his groove and work on some things and get comfortable with those new mechanics as well. Don't just see him change certain things with a swing or a setup or whatever and give him five games with that and be like, cool.

All right, let's go. You're coming back. No, give him 20 games, 30 games with that. Let him have time. Well, even if you're in a position where like, let's hypothetically, they do get back into us and Upton is struggling and Tramel, you know, was kind of reverting back to what he was last year and Hanager is not quite rehabbing fast enough and you know Lewis is is still only able to play a couple days a week and he's not able to play the field still you would still be better off going out and getting somebody else yeah

outside of the org than just calling up Jared Kelmick so there really is no reason regardless whether the team is playing well and they need some you know some some more talent added to the roster or the team is playing poorly and their season's over and they just want to get guys at bats. There's no reason to call up Jared Kelnick at the current state that he's at, which is good, bad, or in the middle. There's no reason. So I wouldn't expect it anytime soon.

Yeah, I wholeheartedly agree. All right. So we're going to be talking about the Mariners rubber match tonight, got Chris Flexen versus Jordan Liles, as I said earlier. We're going to be talking about that in just a moment. But real quick, a reminder, this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by Blue Nile. Whether you're ready to pop the question or you're celebrating a milestone moment, find jewelry as a unique as them with the modern convenience of online shopping at Blue Nile.com. Blue Nile has simple online tools that let you choose the diamond shape, size, and clarity as well as setting style. Blue Nile's bench jewelers will then handcraft their perfect engagement ring and each ring is one of a kind.

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So shop, stress-free, and find your forever piece. Go to blue nile.com today. So again, we got Chris Flexen, Jordan Liles. Wiles has been pretty solid for the Orioles. He's leading the team in pitcher F-4 right now at one. He's just exactly one, one flat. And we know about this Orioles offense as well, the talent that it does have. And Flexen, as you mentioned earlier on in the show,

it has been shaky at times. He's been really inconsistent. He's had some good performances here. You think about the Tampa matchup, of course. but yeah it's been a very up and down year for chris flexen he kind of embodies how the mariners have operated in general this year it's very up and down you got one start you build some momentum and then the momentum completely crashes the very next outing uh let's let me just ask you this i mean what does chris flexen have to do in this uh this game to uh to get through it give the mariners a chance to to get the series went he's got a pitch pretty well It's the cutter.

It's always the cutter for Chris Flex. And the answer doesn't change. If he is a cutter is good and he is commanding it, he has a shot to go six, seven innings, give him two, three runs. If he doesn't, it's a batting practice fastball. And he's going to get lit up like a Christmas tree. It's the same story every single time he goes out there.

Does Chris Flexen have the good cutter tonight? Can he command it? Then he has a good shot. He doesn't. you know, you kind of pray for a Marco Gonzalez-like game where, you know, lots of hard contact, but well-positioned defenders make plays and yada yada. So it's all about the cutter. And, you know, we did see some changeups in his last out-in against Texas that were pretty good.

We know that he can crank up the velocity to 94-95 if he needs it. But ultimately, it's the cutter. He has to locate it on the glove side of the strike zone, on his glove side. side of the strike zone to both lefties and righties. And if you can do that, then he can go pretty deep against what is still a bad lineup. But yeah, he has to give his offense a shot. And Liles is, you know, a fringe average major league starter. But those guys have had the tendency to shut down the Mariners in the past.

Yeah, typically if you see like a really good pitcher, like a Kevin Gossman or Max Serser, It's like cool the Mariners have a chance to win tonight and then you see Jordan Liles and it's like Oh, I mean Kyle Braddish so yeah yeah we'll see what offense we get the offense is still pretty streaky but is on a bit of a good run right now Yeah, Thai France is doing Thai France thing still three more hits last night like Yeah J.P Crawford got on the board with a home run last night as well that was his first home run since May 1st and then and they made a bad throw Yeah, yeah as is tradition now. JP Crawford home runs come at a cost.

So thankfully the game was already out of reach at that point. But yeah, so, you know, Julio got on base a couple times last night, had another hard hit ball that was just double play. Unfortunate timing there. So, yeah, it's just the offense is okay. They didn't come up with the big hit they needed last night. Had a couple opportunities early. Fourth, fifth inning, didn't really take advantage.

Only got a run. a piece in those innings and they're just kind of cruise but toro's back in the lineup tonight so yeah they have a shot um it is worth noting and you guys probably know this by the time you're listening to this uh weather is rolling in uh through the maryland baltimore maryland area so there's a good chance this game gets delayed i think they're going to try very hard to fit it in because obviously seattle doesn't go back to baltimore this year so i would still suspect the game gets played but there's a decent chance it will be delayed and we'll see how that impacts uh you know liles and flexen um shouldn't be too bad because it's not like they're going to you know get hot and then like

30 minutes before first pitch they're going to be like oh let's push it back a couple hours uh we should have an answer to that pretty soon as we are recording um but uh yeah we'll see it it's a big night for the mariners so they can get this win win back-to-back series you know head to texas who's playing pretty well uh you know with some momentum and try to win another series. That's how they're going to dig themselves out of the hole. It's not going to be some random 10-game win streak that they're going to rip out. So just got to keep winning series.

Yeah, got to string together some series victories. And if they win tonight, this will be just the first time the Mariners have won back-to-back series since April 24th. So it's been a long time for the first time. for the M's and they've only done that twice right they won three series in a row back in April with the uh we believe it was the Astros Rangers and Royals that was on the homestand the first homestan and then uh yeah and now they got an opportunity to do it now after uh taking two or three from the Astros this past weekend and uh if they can get a win tonight so we'll

see if they can do it they really really need to because if not they're at the 30 loss mark now they would be 21 and 30 after tonight That's not a place that you want to be right now. So we'll see how it goes. And we'll be back tomorrow talking about it all and getting you set for the Mariners Rangers series, which starts tomorrow night down in Arlington. But that's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on Locked-on Mariners for Colby Patnode.

I'm Tad de Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow inside the Mariners at inside Mariners. You can follow me at Dan Gonzalez, that's D-A-N-Z-L-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-Pat-11. P-A-T-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode, and thank you again for making us your first listen of the day, just like you do here every day. Now make your second listen to the day, locked on MLB. That's where Paul Francis Sullivan, and please call him. Sully brings you his unique perspective on the major leagues president past. It's free wherever you get

your podcast just like us. So have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we will see you tomorrow. Peace.