Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Seattle Mariners 2024 Preseason Farm System Re-Rank: The Top 10

Episode Date: February 22, 2024

Prospect Week wraps up as Ty and Colby offer up their top 10 Mariners prospects heading into the 2024 season.WIN COLBY'S STUFF TERMS & CONDITIONS!Ask us questions!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!BackblazeReceive a fully-featured no risk free trial at Backblaze.com/lockedonmlb. Go there, play with it, start protecting yourself from potential bad times! eBay MotorsWith all the parts you need at the prices you want, it’s easy to turn your car into the MVP and bring home that win. Keep your ride-or-die alive at EbayMotors.com. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase.FanDuelNew customers, join today and you’ll get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS if your first bet of FIVE DOLLARS or more wins. Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It's time to give you our top 10 prospects in the Marers Farm System. Colby, hit it. You are locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Oh, Hoy, sailors. It is Thursday, February 22nd, 2024. This is tying us and Colby Pat node for the Lockdowner's podcast.

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And if you want to hear from us even more, please consider sending up for our Patreon. You can now get a free seven-day trial to check out the show. The link as well as our social accounts is in the description of this episode. And on the show today, we're wrapping up prospect week with our top 10 Mariners prospects. If you haven't watched our episodes covering prospects 30 through 21 and 20 through 11, go do that now and head back over here when you're finished. Number 10 here, Tyler Locklear. Let's just get this out of the way first because we've gotten a lot of questions about it.

Locklear isn't a third baseman. All right. Like, he's not good there. Yes, that's the position he was drafted at, but that's not where he's going to play. He's going to be a first baseman and probably a pretty decent one of that. But because he's going to man the least important position, position on the diamond he has it absolutely has to especially in the power department and so far we've seen solid power output but not the kind of power you hope he can eventually give you

which is somewhere in the ballpark of you know 23 to 30 home runs and another 20 to 30ish doubles it's kind of a long swing right now too um you have anything that i just i think you need to be much higher on the low end. I think law clear for him to carry the value is that he's going to have to hit 30 home runs unless he's going to hit like 270, 280, which maybe he does. Sure, sure, maybe.

Yeah, I just, I think you need more power than even like the 20-ish mark for him to be a everyday big leaguer. Yeah, he's probably going to be ready for his first taste of the majors at some point this year, but like we've talked about on previous episodes, the

path for him doing that in Seattle, right now isn't super clear just as far as 2024 is concerned. Now, if Thai France struggles again, I think the opportunity is there for Locklear and if France ends up getting non-tendered next winter I think the door is wide open for

Locklear to at the very least stake his claim. Doesn't mean he is the first baseman of the future or should be, but I do think he gets the chance to be that guy if France doesn't turn it around. But if France does, I think Locklear is playing first base somewhere else later this year or early next

year. Yeah. Like he said, he's got a hit. He's not a great athlete, but he's functional, let's call him on the bases and in the field. His swing is interesting. Like I said, it's pretty long.

The bat speed, there are questions about that. It's partially long because he has this kind of hand movement he does. It's like a very light Gary Sheffield, where he kind of like cocks his wrist back before as he starts a swing and that means the end of the bat is kind of facing the pitcher. So now the barrel has to go that additional couple of inches as he whips it through the zone. So I have some concerns about whether or not he can hit high, you know, velocity up in the zone.

And like you said, the power has been fine, like the slug has been fine. And he's hitting lots of doubles and a fair amount of home runs. But it hasn't exactly popped to where it needs to be, which I think is 60 because because of the bat wrap, because of the kind of, you know, fine but not great bat speed. I have questions about whether or not he can hit much higher than 240, 250 at the big league level. And if he's going to do that and he's not going to provide any value defensively or on the bases, he kind of has to hit 28 to 35 home runs to be like an everyday good

big league first baseman. So I'm not saying he can't get there. I'm just saying I have questions about if he can or how soon he can. And he's, you know, he's a college draft. he's 24 years old. It's not like he's got, you know, three years to figure that out

before he's get challenged with big league pitching. He's going to probably get challenged either this year or next year. And he's got to produce. I imagine he starts here in double A. And it's going to be a little tough to judge his power because we know right-handed power hitters in Arkansas's ballpark. Not a great combination. So we'll see.

I'm still fairly optimistic on the bat. I think there's a chance if everything goes really well. He could hit 280 with like 360 on base and 500 slug and, you know, hit 28 home runs and hit 35 doubles and, you know, play an average first base. So I still like the player. It's just there are some legitimate questions and concerns with the swing and the load and whether or not he can handle, you know, pop-in stuff at the next level. I do kind of wonder if he's just C.J. Cron.

who has had a couple of good years, but overall pretty mediocre. Or if he can be something more than that. Feels like Thai France is kind of his ceiling right now. With more over the wallpower. Maybe. Maybe. Yeah. All right.

So coming in at number nine is Johnny Farmello, one of the Mariners' three essentially first round picks this past year. Farmello's a sensational athlete who has a very good chance of sticking in center field and when he gets a hold of the ball he can do insane amounts of damage but the problem is that swing for me and I'm not a swing guy so if I can notice something looks weird

there's kind of a problem right? He looks so stiff especially in his upper body the arm bar is so painfully obvious I was watching him again last night I remember that video that came out of him, taking BP when they invited him up to T-Mobile Park right after the draft. Just the elbow sticks out so much,

and it's so locked into place. It's really awkward looking. So now, so far, he's been able to succeed in spite of it, but I have a hard time imagining that that's going to translate well to his first full season of Pro Bowl. But like you and I were talking about off-air, if it works, fine, but I just, I don't really see how it's going to work, but I, you know, I'm not an expert here.

The, I'll make that abundantly clear. The only rule that matters in hitting mechanics is that it has to work. Yeah. That is the only rule that matters. So if he can make that work, like you, why change it? Like, if he can make it, if he keeps on hitting it at every level, you're not going to change it. Um, once he starts to struggle, though, like, it's pretty. clear that he needs to be a little more flexible on the on the top half so if he ever does start

to struggle so as long as it works he's going to keep it that way but yeah I have some doubts as to whether or not that's going to translate uh you know to the big league level but like you said 70 runner like yeah probably 60 raw power 65 raw power yeah uh I have my concern is like can he hit for average can he get on base enough but I think he's going to be a really good center fielder. I think he's going to, you know, hit some homers. He's going to steal some bags. Like he's a good player, a good prospect who is, you know, four years away from the big leagues. So we'll see. I imagine he probably starts the year Modesto and he'll spend most of his year there. But there's a chance that he could really pop. And I think Kylie McDaniels had him as high as four in the Mariners organization and top 100 prospects.

So, you know, that's it's a pretty notable name in the prospect community. And for him to be, you know, so high on Farmello definitely should open some, you know, open some eyes and, and he's definitely got to track. But yeah, like, if you're telling me, like, who's the guy who eventually pushes Julio off the center field, who's in the org right now, it's probably Farmello.

Like, Farmello's glove is, is so good that, like, it might finally force the Maris to be like, okay, it's time for Julio to play right field. All right. So the top 10 continues in just a moment, but first, a reminder of this episode of the Locked-on Maris podcast is brought to you by game time. buying tickets to your favorite events shouldn't be stressful.

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Again, create an account and redeemed promo code Locked-on. That's L-C-K-D-O-N for $20 off. Download game time today. Last-minute tickets, lowest price, guarantee. And you're listening to the Lock-D-Ares podcast. Thank you again for making us your first listen. And as a reminder, Lockdown has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube. Locked-on Sports Today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day

with the local experts of Lockdown, plus our national shows covering every league. Go to Lockdown Sports Today on YouTube and subscribe. to the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. And before we get back into our top 10 mergers prospects, Colby, for those that have maybe not watched the last few episodes or they're new to the show,

tell them about what we got going on right now with this giveaway. Yeah, we're doing a spring training giveaway to celebrate, you know, the fact that baseball is back. So why not? Essentially, I'm giving away. a lot of my stuff, a lot of my Mariners baseball stuff. So yeah, basically for every new tier of 100 new subscribers, we get to this YouTube channel, I will be adding something or I'll be adding items into a Mariners mystery box.

And we will randomly select one comment from the videos from any of the video during the duration of this contest. And that person will win the mystery box. Again, every 100 new subs, subs we add. add more stuff to the box right now already in it includes a Mitch Garver dual jersey swath our autograph card numbered a Jared Kellnick autograph card and you know once we get to the next tier which for us would be 10,900 subs we'll tell you guys what is getting added into the box when we hit 10,000 or when we hit 11,000 we'll tell you what the next step is so tinter is very easy all you got to do is just subscribe to this channel

and leave a comment, you can comment whatever you want. And we will, the contest ends on February 29th. March 1st was kind of the day we were planning on drawing the winner. But we might have to push that back because I'm not going to be here next Friday. So we'll see. We'll let you know on that in. But again, just subscribe to the channel, leave a comment down below. And you'll be entered to win a really cool prize pack.

And let me tell you guys, we're getting close to 10, 10.9. you're going to want us to get to 11. There are some good stuff coming down the pipeline. And, you know, if you want to know exactly what's in the box right now, you'd go watch yesterday's episode around this timestamp. And you'll see everything that's in the box so far. Yeah, it's really dope what Colby has planned. So definitely help us get there because you certainly want a chance to get some of that stuff.

All right. Let's get back into our top 10 Marius prospects here. We are at number eight. and at number eight is Aiden Smith, who's made quite the jump. He was number 18 the last time we did these rankings. He is now number eight, and I thought I was going to be the high man on Smith

by putting him 10 on my list, but then Colby went ahead and just put him at 7 on his. So Colby, I don't know if I'm there with you on him being over Farmello, even with the concerns I have about Farmello's mechanics, but I think I can wrap my head around why you came to this conclusion. Is it that you think he's a safer bet to just be at the very least a solid big leaguer? It's because he's the next Julio Rodriguez.

So 80 speed, 80 raw power. 80s across the board. Literal generational talent. Yes, once in a lifetime. Mike Trout ain't got nothing on this guy. Right. Also a number three starting pitcher on top of it. Like, who knew?

But, yeah, no, so Aidan Smith is a guy who really came up late in draft talk last year. He blew away the little combine they had. He, like, won the combine that they had pre-draft. And the Mariners were able to draft him in the fourth round. They give him second round money to sign. There are a lot of tools to work with. He is a freaky athlete, which kind of becoming a trend here, the last few episodes. We talked a lot about, you know, freaky athletes in the mariner system.

and this guy is one of them. I think he's a more natural hitter than Farmelow. I think Formalow probably has more power. But I look at Aden Smith and I just see tools to dream on. He's six foot three, like a buck 80. So there's still some muscle to add, something to go get. He's got a good shot to be a center fielder. And it's a very quick swing.

It's smooth. It's like butter. It doesn't have the arm bar issues of, Johnny Farmello. I think he could hit 25 home runs at the big league level with some average and, you know, at least average to above average center field defense. So to me,

he's just a higher floor than somebody like Farmello. He has less to work on. But again, guys 19 years old, just like Farmello. Anything can happen. And the difference between number four and number nine on my ranks are, is basically negligible.

So this is just me kind of, you know, playing on a playing on a little bit of a hunch here and just talk and just listening to the glowing reports that the Mariners had about, uh, Aiden Smith and the high performance camp and all that stuff. Like they love this dude.

And so, uh, they're excited. I'm excited. And so that's why Aiden Smith came in at number seven for me. There's just a lot of bat speed here. There's a lot of raw power. There's good defense.

There's plus runner plus arm. Like there's just a lot of really cool tools. Now it's just about can he put them. into, you know, into practice. Can he like actually get to those tools and be a successful big leaguer? And I think he can. So we'll have to wait and see. But I am very much on board, Aden Smith.

It's coming in at number seven is Michael Arroyo. Arroyo is one of the few guys on this list that I'm going to be honest. I don't feel great about where I put him. Because right now I think he's kind of positionless. he's not going to be a shortstop. He might be a second baseman, and that's probably where the bat ultimately profiles the best, though from a pure defensive standpoint,

he's probably better at third. The problem with that is, can he justify playing third with the bat? Because I keep hearing the power's going to come. The power's going to come, but it still hasn't really taken shape. And while I know he's only 19 and he's still filling out physically, I just have no clue what his profile is ultimately going to be, you know.

But the hit tool, I think, is legit, even though he had an inconsistent first year state side. And if he's just, you know, a high average, high on base guy with very little over-the-wall pop when it's all sudden done, there's still value in that. But that's not really what I've been dreaming on here with Michael O'Royo. So I think this is a pretty big year for him in terms of making strides towards more power development.

And with my higher ranking of him, I'm kind of betting on him making good on that. But if he doesn't, I think he's falling into the teens the next time we do this. Yeah, I mean, last year, it was not great. Right. In the California league, it was one month he was really good. The next month he was really bad. The next month he was good. The next month he was really bad.

And he finished on a low note. Right. He had 234 with a 373 slug. Now, I did get on base 39% of the time. So it's not like it was an awesome. awful year for him. There's nothing to build on there. But how much power is he going to hit for? Can he get to some of the natural bats? We can he utilize it? Is he going to grow anymore? He's 19 years old and he's about 5-9-170. Like there doesn't feel like there's a lot of my concern with

Royo is that he just ends up being Ryan Bliss in a few years where we're like maybe, you know, maybe Bliss is an everyday big leaguer, but maybe he's just kind of a platoon like part-time guy. So that's my concern. How much power can you get to? And, you know, I don't know if he's ever going to be a 20 home run guy. Maybe he can get there. But I think he could hit 40 doubles. Like it's a line drive approach. And if he's doing that at second base and he's an above average second base one,

which I think he can be. I think he has the tools to be. Then that's a really good player. So my concern, the reason you're higher on him than I am, at least in the individual ranks, is just that I have serious concern whether or not he's ever going to get to the power. And I know he's not a shortstop.

And I don't think the bat's going to profile a third. it's pretty much second base or bust for him. And he was, again, wildly inconsistent last year. He'll start the year and A ball again. I assume he'll be back in Modesto. And again, he's only 19 years old. He'll play the entire year at 19 years old. So still plenty of time.

But last year was, I would say he kind of got stuck in neutral at the very best last year. Yeah, that Modesto team is going to be so fun this year. Very good. Very good. Also, Arkansas. Even never, it sounds like pretty good. I mean, even the rainiers are going to have some fun like, hey, that guy could help you in the big leagues this year. For sure.

For sure. So coming in at number six is the one they call Baby Yordon, Lazaro Montez. God. And Colby, yeah, well, hold on, hold on here. Because you've said time and time again, how you typically lean towards players who have multiple paths to the majors. And you usually avoid giving out high rankings to guys that strictly have to hit in order to be a big lear. but Montes has jumped from 13th in your individual rankings the last time we did this all the way up to fifth in your individual rankings now in just a few months time. So clearly you're making a bit of an exception here.

Clearly you're drinking the Kool-Aid to a certain degree. Why? Well, for starters, he's Yordon Alvarez. Like, who cares if he can't play anywhere else, but first base? Can they just go ahead and give up on the whole outfield thing with that? him please please like you're just slowing down his progress at this point yeah so yeah it is a bit of an exception here but montes is like the ceiling is at least last year he had a ball 118 miles an hour at 18 years old it's 80 grade power it is 80 grade raw power and i think he's got a chance to get

to 50 maybe even a 65 hit tool yeah so the raw power starting to show up in games again he's only 19 years old so last year he also hit lefties pretty well Yes, he's not a split guy. He played all of last year at 18 years old. He's going to play all of this year at 19 years old. And he's got a shot, an outside shot to end of year at double A. This is an advanced bat can move quickly. My favorite part is that in the DSL as before last year, he was running like a 34% strikeout rate.

And that's a red flag for a guy who's supposed to be. Last year, he dropped that down to about 26% despite seeing better competition. That is significant. he draws plenty of walks he's got 40 45 home run power like i look at this guy and honestly i say you know he's probably not yord on alger's like come on that is so unfair to put that on that guy because there's one yorda on alvarez right could he be kyle schwarber yeah i think he could and how he's a dang good baseball player who yeah who you know might strike out some he might only hit 220 but he's going to get on base 38% of the time and it

35 bombs so you live with it. And I think that's kind of the direction that Montes is in. And I still think there's a shot that he is a 260 hitter with 40 home runs. And again, the fact that he's going to play this entire year at 19 and he might get to double A. Like the bad is the raw hit tool and the raw power is so special and I'm willing to make an exception here. Because I think Montes is a guy who could be in the big leagues by the middle of next year and succeed like at 20 years old. Yeah, I said his ETA, rather, at 2027 on the graphic. Which is, yeah, I mean, that's probably more of a stickier than like a debut year.

But like, the bat, it has a chance to carry him to the big leagues quickly. Yeah. So again, I think Kyle Schwerber is like a reasonable ceiling top for him, not Yordon. This is by far the most surprising thing on your list for me. Because I just, I almost came. believe the words that are coming out of your mouth because it's i'm buying it dude it's not typical for you a hundred and eighteen miles an hour at 18 years old so could o'neal cruise and you don't like him yeah that's because o'neal cruz doesn't have 40 home run power i i just i think he's going to i really

do think he's going to end up being a 250 guy with about 370 on base and he's going to slug 40 homers um as hopefully a dh only but obviously again that there's a lot of risk there because he will give you nothing on the bases and he will hurt you in the field. So he has to kind of get there to be. He is slow. Very slow. So. Very slow.

Yeah. Just stick him at first base, DH and just let the bat ride. Like there's no reason to try and think, try and trick us into thinking you can play right field. Okay. It's not going to happen. Can we just stop with that?

Yes. All right. We are halfway through. We are going to be going through the top five in just a moment. But first, a reminder, this episode of the lockdown air is. This podcast is brought to you by Fanduel.

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That's Fandual.com slash LOC, KD-O-N. Fanduel, official sportsbook partner of the NBA. And you're listening to the Lockdown Marins podcast. Thank you again for making us your first listen as we rank our top 10 Mariners prospects, and we're in the top five now. And coming in at number five, Felnan-Selston. For as good as the next four guys, we're going to be talking about our. it's hard not to find someone who knows a thing or two about the mayor's farm system who thinks

Celestin has the most upside out of all these prospects. It's for good reason because we're talking about a guy who's about as sure of a bet to stick at shortstop as you can get for an 18 year old and be plus at that position as well. The hit tool is supposedly legit and there's an expectation he's going to grow into 15, 20, Homer power if not more. The only issue here is he still hasn't played pro ball. And while I totally

believe the people who know way more about Celestin than I do that he's a special dude, I just can't in good faith get super aggressive with my ranking of him right now when we don't know how he looks against professional ball players of any kind. Sure. I think the fact that he's

number five on our list, despite having zero games of professional experience, kind of points to what an insane talent this guy is. Scouts and like baseball people, they don't throw around like Hall of Fame comps lightly because if they're wrong, they look like idiots.

So when I tell you multiple people have told me he's got a shot to be Francisco Lindoror. Right. Like you pay attention to that. It's a switch hitter. He's good size already. You can still add another 20 pounds of muscle. He's,

the Mariners apparently love him. They love his attitude. And he's going to start the year at Modesto. though. Like his first taste of pro ball is going to be at A ball as a guy who, you know, just turned 18 five months ago. Like special, special talent here. Long way to go. A lot of speed bumps coming.

Right. But the dude in terms of just raw talent, just raw skills might be the best guy in the org. And again, when people who know like the game and they know the industry and they talk to other people in the industry, when they tell you that they've heard more, Multiple people say that he has a shot to be, again, Francisco Lindor, a legitimate Hall of Fame short stuff. Right. You have to pay attention to that.

You have to. Right. And if the expectations of him are true, I think we might have a new number one prospect the next time we do these rankings. And by all accounts, I think this is someone that could be a top 10 prospect in the entire game in a couple of years, if not sooner. All right. So coming in at number four, Ty Pete. now this isn't really the analysis you guys are probably looking for

here but Tai Pete has the it factor whatever it is he's got it right the way he carries himself it's abundantly clear he has all the confidence in the world like I've watched him from afar and I've talked to some people who've interacted

with him and I feel very confident in saying the dude has a superstar personality and a superstar aura about him. And he has the raw tools to back it up as well. The key here of course is going to be putting it

all together and it really comes down to the hit tool like it usually always does. The raw power from the left side though is insane. There is quite a bit of swing and miss though and we saw that during his cup of coffee and Modesto. So there's going to

need to be some work done with this swing and there's also some conflicting opinions out there about where he's going to wind up defensively. I've seen some say with confidence that he's going to stick up the middle, whether it's at shortstop, second base or center field, while I've seen other people more so project third base or corner outfield. I was in the camp of thinking he'll stick up the middle not too long ago. I think we even answered a question about that of who of all the prospects could stick at shortstop.

And I think I said type Pete. but he is a bit bulkier for his age. So I think I might be leaning towards the ladder now instead that he might actually end up at third or in a corner outfield spot. But dude's highly athletic and wherever he plays. I don't really care. I think this dude has a very high ceiling and I'm really, really excited to follow his career.

Yeah, it's potential 60s across the board. And like I said, he's got a lot of work to get there to actually hit those marks, particularly in the batters box. But yeah, like he came in behind Celestin for me because Celston is going to play shortstop. Like there's no doubt about that. And Pete, I think probably ends up at third. And then he's got to hit a little bit more if you're going to play third

versus if you're going to play short. But I do think Pete's power comes easier. And he has got an incredible arm and he's an incredible athlete. So it's really easy to be excited about him. But he's got to watch. I assume he'll probably start Modesto as well. But we'll have to see how he handles the breaking ball. We'll have to see if you can get the swing of

under control a little bit and it's probably going to take him a little bit longer than other guys on this list but the payoff is just as high if not higher if you guys are using process of elimination I think you can figure out who are top three and it's pretty much in line with consensus so starting with number three Harry Ford Ford was our number two prospect the last time we did this the big question here for me is where is he going to play because that does change the way we view of the bat and the value that carries. Because if he can stick behind the plate with the way his bat projects, I mean, we're talking about potentially one of the best players at that position.

But there are real concerns about his ability to catch. And it seems the Mariners are already starting to flirt with the idea of moving him to another spot. I mean, we've already heard that we might see him at a few different positions over the course of the spring. We're not at this point yet, but I think we're, We are getting closer to the point that we've talked about a lot over the last couple of years since they drafted Ford, where the bat will be too good to be kept down for the sake of holding on to the hope that he can catch. And that's really going to be put to the test right out of the gate because I'd be pretty surprised if he's not on that Arkansas roster on opening day or at least shortly there after.

He's going to be. Yeah. Yeah. So he's shown an elite feel for the strike zone. it's high walk rates, low K rates, wherever he's played, and the power is starting to come in droves. And if that carries over against double A pitchers this year, I think the Barrens will have a pretty big decision to make sooner rather than later.

Right. It's a tough ballpark for, you know, it's a tough ballpark to judge power from right-handed bat. So that's something to keep an eye on. But my question is, does he have enough over-the-wall power to play a corner? Like a lot of people have mentioned third base for him, Does he have enough power to play third? Maybe he can get there. I haven't seen it yet.

It's a lot of doubles right now, but I did watch a lot of Harry Ford tape last night highlights, whatever you want to call it. He abuses the right center field gap. And he has home run power to that side. And that's not typically something you can fake, right? You can't, you know, kind of hit an accidental opposite field home run.

Like that doesn't really happen, not to right center field. So the power is there. The bat speed's there. he great, great control of the strike zone, draws a ton of walks. He probably needs to be more aggressive at the plate. He doesn't swing enough.

And at times it almost looks like he goes up there to take a walk. Which again, walks are good. Hits are better. Right. It's do more damage. Especially with what he can do to a baseball. Right. Right. And again,

he's going to put up some decent exit Velos. I don't think he's ever going to be like a masher in that regard, but he should hit 270, 260, 270, he's going to have high 300 on base percentages, and then it comes down to what can he do power-wise. And if he's catching, he doesn't have to do much with the batting average in the on base to be an all-star level player. I'm still really high on Harry Ford.

Harry Ford didn't lose his number one job. He didn't do anything to lose the number one prospect spot. These two guys ahead of him just came and took it from him. Right. It's a really, it's credit to the Mariners drafting that Harry Ford is not the number one prospect. So coming in at number two is our former number one the last time we did this, Cole Young, which should say a lot about who comes in at number one, but we'll get there.

Young's coming off of an insane first full season in Pro Bowl. He was really good in Modesto and somehow was significantly better after getting called up to Everett. HitTool is great. He has a really good feel for the strike zone. importantly he started to show some over the wall power as the season progressed now 11 home runs over 600 played appearances isn't really anything that write home about but for young specifically it's a really interesting development because it was the one part of his offensive profile that was seemingly missing when they drafted him and what led to some comps on him like adam fraser right so if the power output takes another step forward i mean colby is it too far for me to say, young could be 2023 J.P. Crawford. Like maybe shave off a few homers

for more points in the batting average department, but still a guy that's going to run a sub 20% K rate, you know, 12 to 14% walk rate and hit a ton of doubles. That sounds a lot like 2023 J.P. Crawford to me. Sure. I don't know that it's going to be, you know,

a 380 on base, but I can't say that that's not his ceiling because I think he could hit 15 home runs. He could, you know, and he can still play shortstop. Cole Young is going to end up being a second baseman, I think, but he can certainly handle shortstop. He's not bad at short. So in fact, he might be good enough that JP moves to second base next year or the year after. But I think ultimately he's homes at second base. And, you know, he only doesn't strike out, draws a ton of walks. He doesn't chase at all. That's like, like, I think it was like a 17% chase rate.

last year, which for a 20 year old or a 19 year old in high A is insane. That's nuts. Yeah. Yeah. So he's very much like Harry Ford in that way, except for he doesn't go up there to walk like it sometimes seems Ford does. He's up there to hit. He just has a very good idea of what he can and can't handle and he just won't chase anything. So, yeah, I think there's a shot he could hit 300 at the big league level. Um, there's a shot that he is, you know, he could have a 400 on base season or two because he's going to draw a ton of walks. The, The ceiling is going to be determined by the power. And if he can get to 20 home runs without sacrificing too much of the bat,

the bat of all skills, then he's an all-star. And I actually do think an Adam Frazier comp, like prime Adam Frazier is actually still pretty spot on. Guy's going to hit 280, play really good defense at second base, draw a lot of walks. All right.

So that brings us to number one in the Mariners Farm system. It's their first. pick in this past year's draft, Colt Emerson, who went into God mode to begin his pro career. It was, now, it was only 24 games, all right? But he made it look very easy, very easy, which considering he was 17 at the time is incredibly impressive. He has a very advanced understanding of the strike zone. His swing is buttery smooth and generates a ton of quality contact.

and his path to adding more power is a lot clearer than it is for someone like Cole Young, which for me is why he comes in at number one. I don't think he has the highest upside in the farm. Like if you asked me to pick one prospect from this group to win an MVP in their career, he wouldn't be my answer. That's Celestine. That's Pete. That's maybe even Ford.

But it's not hard seeing Emerson being a consistent three-win player. in his career with the upside of being a perennial All-Star. Yeah, you're telling me to bet on somebody who's going to make five All-Star teams in their career. I'm probably picking Emerson. You're telling me, like, who's going to be, like, a legitimate, like, Star, like, Ronald Acuna.

Like, it's probably, like, Celestine or Pete or maybe Formello, but, like... Right, yeah. The fact that Emerson comes with floor and ceiling, yeah, like, is huge. The fact that he just destroyed a ball pitching or complex league pitching. He played at both levels, right?

Yeah, yeah. He was on that playoff run with Modesto. So he'll definitely start there in Modesto. Drew plenty of walks, doesn't strike out, plus raw power from the left side. And we've heard recently that he actually bulked up to 225 in about a month,

in about six months, about six months, sorry, in about six weeks, he went from about 195, 200 to 225. And that it was good weight. Like it's not because he didn't eat his way there. He worked his way there. And it was so much that the Mariners had to be like, hey, maybe ease back a little bit.

Let's calm down there, Jerry Kelnick. Sure. Let's get you to 215. And he's there. Like he did that with ease. So he's already added muscle and speed. And like he's a worker. He's everything you want from your top prospect.

He's a guy who's a grinder. he's got all the natural skills in the world but he doesn't want to just rely on those he's a worker there's a chance he's Corey Seeger just going to throw that out there I think ultimately probably ends up playing third base so I mean that kind of eliminates the Corey Seeker

cop a little but like offensively I can seem to be a Corey Seeger and as weird as it is to sound to say for an 18 year old I feel like his floor is Kyle Seeger like so you're getting like 31 player at the very least, but you might just have a Hall of Famer. Who knows? So, yeah, like, Colt Emerson to me, like, I didn't consider anybody else for a minute to be the

one prospect, like, not for a second. And that, that was only reinforced repeatedly over the winter as I heard more and more about the things that Emerson was doing. Like, right. Kid could be something special. He could be, you know, the top five prospect and all baseball by the end of this year. Like, it's not zero chance he ends this year at, at, double a like i wouldn't expect it i expect he finishes it ever but he could get to double a and

he's in double a at the end of this year we're talking about him for 2025 yeah you're talking about him possibly making his debut at the end of 2020 along the side airy for kohl yachts 2025 could be very exciting from a peer just prospect call up standpoint it could but you kind of hope they're not up because you want the guys who are blocking them to be so good that they can't get their foot in the door. So right. Let's quickly recap our top 30 and then get out of here. So coming in at number 30, Luis Swee spell, number 29, Logan Evans, number 28, Walter Ford, number 27 Ben Williamson, number 26, Jimmy Joyce, number 25, Cole Phillips, number 24 Alberto Rodriguez, number 23, Michael Morales, number 22, Brodie Hopkins, number 21 Levi Stout, number 20, Blake

Hunt, number 19, Samad Taylor, number 18, Emerson Hancock, number 17, K, K, Marlowe. Number 16, Carlos Vargas, number 15, Jonathan Classe, number 14, Teddy McRaw, number 13, Jeter Martinez, number 12, Dewell Joseph, number 11, Ryan Bliss, number 10, Tyler Locklear, nine, Johnny Farmello, eight, Aden Smith, seven, Michael Oroyo, six, Lazaro Montez, five, Felon & Celestin, four, Ty Pete, three, Harry Ford, two, Cole Young, and one, Colt, Emerson. And there you have it. Those are our top 30 prospects before the start of the 2024 season. That's going to do it for our show.

Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Colby Patnode. I've been your host, Tiding Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at LO underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Tidang Gonzalez and Colby at C-Pat 11. That's C-P-A-T-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Thank you again for making us your first listen.

Have yourself a beautiful baseball day. And we'll see you next time. Peace.