Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Seattle Mariners 2025 Midseason Farm System Re-Rank: Prospects 30-21

Episode Date: August 12, 2025

Ty and Colby kick off their 2025 midseason re-rank of the Mariners farm system with prospects 30 through 21.Check out our Patreon!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolbySupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!5-Hour ENERGYTime to fuel up and turn it up with 5-hour ENERGY®️ Transfusion! Go to https://5hourenergy.com today and use my promo code LOCKEDONGOLF to receive 20% off your order. This offer is only valid until September 30th on one order and cannot be used with other promotions. The code is not good on subscription orders.  Supply HouseJoin the TradeMaster program today at SupplyHouse.com/TM and start ordering plumbing, HVAC, and electrical supplies with just a few clicks. Plus, use promo code S-H-5 for 5% off your first order. That’s SupplyHouse.com!OpenPhoneStreamline and scale your customer communications with OpenPhone. Get 20% off your first 6 months at www.openphone.com/lockedonmlbGameday HueLet your colors talk—because colors speak louder than words. Right now, you can get 15% off with code MLB15 at GamedayHue.com. Monarch MoneyTake control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code LOCKEDONMLB at monarchmoney.com/lockedonmlb for 50% off your first year.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONMLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime.FanDuelRight now, new customers can get ONE HUNDRED FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS when your first FIVE DOLLAR BET WINS! Download the app or head to FANDUEL.COM to get started. Bet with FanDuel—Official Partner of the NBA.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

A big draft and a busy trade deadline have brought a bunch of change to the Marers Farm System. Today we begin putting the pieces together of our midseason prospect rankings with numbers 30 through 21. Colby, edit. You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors, it is Tuesday, August 12, 2025. This is Tedding as Alice. Colby Patnode for the Lockdown Marys podcast. part of the Lockdown podcast network, your team every day.

This episode is brought to you by Fandul football season is around the corner. Visit the Fandul app today and start planning your futures bets now. And as always, if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, you can check out our Patreon. All you have to do to check that out is click the link in the description of this episode. So today, we're kicking off our 2025 mid-season re-rank of the Maris Farm System with, of course, prospects 30 through 21, 20 through 11 will drop tomorrow and then the top 10 will drop on Thursday.

And a lot of you by now probably know how this works already. But for those of you that are either new to the show or maybe this is the first time you've seen us do our prospect rankings or maybe you just need a refresher, basically how this works is. Colby makes a top 30 list. I make a top 30 list. We combine those two lists using a points based system. to create the list that you're going to see over the next three days. And this is going to be a very different looking list than the last one we did before the season.

Because thanks to the large part to the draft on the trade deadline, they're going to be 16 prospects in our new rankings that either didn't make the cut last time or, of course, weren't in the organization the last time we did this. So a lot of new faces to talk about. however we're actually going to start with a familiar face the guy that came in number 30 the last time we did this is our number 30 now carlos eminness outfieler 22 years old down in modesto colby had him 29 on his list i didn't have him ranked he was one of my bubble guys colby tell us about carlos him minis yeah uh interesting dude some tools uh to work with here he's 22 years old and he's repeating modesto which is a bit of a red flag, but, you know, when you get down this low on the list, they all have red flags. So, yeah, he's a lefty, lefty. Can play all three outfield spots.

He's fine in center field, better in a corner, but he's fine in center field plus runner, well, above average runner, let's call it. And he is running into some power this year, more specifically over the fence power, which I kind of think might be a bit of a mistake. I think he's more of a, you know, slashing into the gaps. run type of guy, but he does seem to be trying to get to more of his natural pull power that he does have. And in some respects, it's worked. He's got 13 home runs this year. That's a career high. But his slugging percentage is also, you know, 20 points lower than it was last

year at Modesto. He's stolen 22 bases this year already, which he stole 22 last year. But the strikeouts are already a new career high for him, but the walks are going to be as well. So So it's a bit more of a three true outcome type of approach from him this year. So again, I'm not wild about that. But he's a guy who can play center field. It's a guy who can steal bases. He draws a lot of walks still. And there's pop there.

Now, again, I don't love the profile change. I think this guy would be better off just trying to hit the gaps in running and playing some good defense. But there is still enough tools there still are enough tools here in a little bit of time to put it all together where I think he could. potentially be, you know, close to an everyday big leaguer. Whereas some other guys who are on the bubble for me, I don't see everyday big league, you know, ceiling for them, even though they probably have significantly higher floors, because him and his floor is that he never gets past, you know, Everett or, or, you know, Arkansas.

So I do think they need to pump him up, give him a shot here against better competition. He will be 23 at the start of spring training next year. year. So, yeah, it is a profile that's running out of time a little bit, but there's still enough tools here that with his ability to play up the middle and his ability to steal bases and draw walks, then I'm willing to give him a bit more time. But yeah, it's not indefinite. He probably won't be on this list next time we do this. But for now, there's just enough tools and just enough production that I am still intrigued by Carlos Semenez. Yeah, when I was trying to figure out my my bubble guys and who was going to make the

last few spots on my list. The question that I asked really with Jimenez is why is he not in high A? What's the reason for that? And I don't have the answer to that. But I'm really curious like why the Marius haven't allowed him to have that shot because he's had plenty of time

down to Modesto. And while he's regressed from what he did last year, he's still producing quite a bit like you mentioned. So I'm just a bit curious as to why he hasn't gotten a promotion yet. So coming in at 29 is a great example of how weaker the back end of the top 30 has gotten with some of the trades that the mayor has made over the last couple weeks. Because a profile like Charlie Bilanson who comes in here at number 29, 25 year old right-hand reliever only profile,

that typically wouldn't make this list for us. but I'm trying to look for some probability here. And that's why he made my list. He didn't make Colby's. He came in at number 28 for me. He's the first of the 16 guys that I mentioned that are new to this list. I really came down to him or Tyler Cleveland because both of those guys are pretty much in similar situations. Both are 25 years old.

Both have spent most of the season with Everett just recently got called up to Arkansas. Both are having success in Arkansas here. in the early going. If you want to go with the, you know, funky delivery of Cleveland, I don't blame you. I decided to go with violence and though. It isn't really like a super impressive fastball on the surface.

You know, it's low to mid-90s, but he's getting quite a bit of swing and miss on it. And he also has that kick change. That is pretty darn good. And in general, he's missing a lot of bats right now. He's throwing a ton of strikes as well. He's not really offering any free passes. And if you can do those two things, you're probably going to get a shot at some point at the big league level.

And that probably will happen relatively soon for Bileston because of his age. So I don't know. This is a guy that I see, you know, again, we're at the back end of the top 30. There are a lot of guys here that we could potentially put in here that might not even sniff AAA, let alone the big leagues. So I'm just going with like someone that I think might be involved in a bullpen competition, you know, for one of those last few spots in spring training next year or at least, you know, get a cup of coffee. at some point in 2026 with the parents. That's kind of what I was looking for here. I think violence and kind of fits that.

And again, he's having quite a bit of success right now, but he's a 25 year old relief only type. So there's only so much that I can be intrigued by here. Yeah, maybe like a Nick Vincent type of ceiling. Yeah, which,

you know, useful reliever for a lot of years. So, yeah, I probably prefer Cleveland just because of the, the funky arm delivery and the submarine. And it's kind of like Adam Sember to give you guys a more modern. pop to it, but both of those guys to me,

they're just kind of interchangeable, fringe top 30 guys, you know, no chance they start. So, uh, but fear not. The top 20 is,

is really good. Yeah. So don't worry about the, you know, your number 28 and 29 prospects aren't that great. Like that, yeah, that's fine.

So coming in at number 28 is another guy that you had on your list. Didn't make the cut from me. That's a, uh, right-handed pitcher Christian Little, uh, pitching right now in Modesto. What do you like about Christian Little?

Yeah, he does a little bit of everything really well, but it's never really come together for him. Like he's got pretty good stuff. He throws pretty good, you know, amount of strikes. It's pretty good delivery. It's just the results just haven't been there really ever. And this is a guy who at one point was a pretty hype draft prospect. And then he went to school.

And, you know, he was fine. Like it wasn't anything terrible, but he just, he disappointed. And he's been consistently disappointed. and he's been consistently disappointing. But when you look at the stuff here, when you look at the athleticism, there still is a lot to work with. And Seattle is, you know, if any organization is going to get the most out of this guy, it's him.

So I look at him and I say, hey, you know, with stuff and all this, there could still be a number four starter here. I don't think he's got a tremendous amount of time to get there, seen as though he was, you know, a college draft pick, and he hasn't performed quite as well as you would like. But I just, I like this stuff. I like the total four pitch. mix. I like that he throws a good amount of strikes, or at least he can. I like that he's an athlete,

and it's just a shot in the dark. You know, there, there's not a ton of, of projectable guys this low on, on the list. And I do think that there is a major league role for him. Potentially, do I think he's likely to get there? No, probably not. That's just kind of the way things work. But is there a chance at a four pitch, you know, number four, number five starter here? Yeah, and that's a lot more that could be said than, you know, when we're trying to decide, which middle relief types belong in the top 30. This guy could be a number five, number four. If everything clicks really well,

like I think you probably deserves to have a spot in the top 30. All right. We will continue prospects 30 through 21 in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Locktime Airs podcast is brought to you by open phone and Fandul. If you run into business, you know that every miss call is money left on the table.

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Be sure to tune in to the Marriss Postcast with Anderson Hurst and Christopher Crawford, available on both the Lockdown Marrers YouTube and podcast feeds. And obviously with us doing our prospect rankings today tomorrow and Thursday, we're not going to be talking really at all about the Mariners and Orioles series outside of maybe a little bit on our Patreon show. So if you want some M's O's talk, be sure to check in with Anders and Chris, the next few nights.

They got you on that front on the Marriss Postcast. All right, let's get back into our prospect rankings here. Number 27, Victor LaBrata. This is a 25-year-old outfielder. He's probably going to be 26 by the time he actually makes his major league debut.

He is, however, the first guy on this list that we both have. on our respective list. And we were both an agreement on where he should be on this list. 27, we both had him there. He's another one of these guys who is making his first appearance on this list for us. The reason that he makes this list, despite his age,

is because he's made some real tangible changes with his swing that have led to success. He dominated down in AA after going to drive line this off season, picking up, I believe they said 10 miles per hour bat speed. That's insane. I mean, it's led to some real production here, especially at Dickie Stevens Park. He dominated down there, 295, 407, 427, obviously repeating the level, but still, that is a pretty significant jump. It was a 43% jump in WRC Plus from what he did last year in AA. Now he is with Tacoma.

the hard hit rates have not carried over to Tacoma so far though he's only slugging 364 right now with the rainier's in 31 games his exit his average exit velocity is only in the 31st percentile right now his barrel rate is only the 26 percentile hard hit rate is only the 19th percentile so he's really struggled in that department since coming up to Tacoma but there are some things that he has carried over. from double a like the low chase rates, the low strikeout rates in general, the high walk rates. He's walking 14.6% of the time. He's obviously a menace on the base pass. We're talking about, you know, 30 to 40 bags. Victor LaBrata is going to be a solid major leaguer, I think. He's going to be a solid fourth outfielder for someone.

Maybe that's the merri's. Maybe that's someone else. Sure. You know, kind of similarish to Yerma Heredia, who carved out a nice little career for himself. Haredia probably has more pop. La Prada has more speed. But I just think, you know, in general, that's the type of player you're getting here.

And again, at 25, the ceiling is not just going to magically appear for him. His ceiling is a bench guy. But again, a bench guy who can play all three outfield spots, can steal, you know, with enough attempts or with enough, you know, opportunities, I should say, can steal 30, 40 bags at the big league level. Makes enough contact. There's actually a little bit of pop there, although we'll have to see how that plays out AAA, it's a little too early to call this one.

But yeah, you know, I think him and like a guy like Jared Sundstrom who like don't really have a ton of like everyday player upside and are a little bit older, you know, you put Sunstrom here. I don't really care. I think that LaBrata is just in that mix of like, yeah, probably a ceiling of a bench guy, but maybe a valuable bench guy. And, you know, if you guys have paid attention to the show for a while, you know, oh, I very much care about having a good bench and all that stuff.

And LaBrata is a guy who could help you in that role. And, you know, if everything really clicks for him, maybe he's draw Dyson, but I don't think he has the defensive chops to be Dyson. But just that kind of role, where Dyson was really mostly a fourth outfielder, who had a couple years where he played a lot. But, yeah, he's going to steal bases. It's going to make contact. And, you know, you just kind of live with that.

That is the 24th, 25th, 26 guy on your team. And then that's, you can do worse. The Mariners are currently doing worse on their bench. Coming in at number 26 here is right-handed pitcher Chi-Shen, 21-year-old down in Modesto. You had him 25th on your list, Colby. I had him 26, so we're pretty much in agreement there. He's another new face on this list as well. What do you like about Shen?

Yeah, an interesting guy kind of popped up pretty late here, or pretty recently. I should say he was a international free agent signing last year. He was kind of like one of the late ones too. Yeah. You know, he's a Taiwanese pitcher. He's six foot three, buck 85. So in theory, there's time to add good weight and muscle to the frame, but also he's 21. So, you know, how much time, I don't know.

But in theory, you could add some muscle to this guy. You could jump up his fastball velo a little bit, which would be nice because he's usually around 92, 93. He's touched 95, 96 in the past. But if you can get him sitting 95, 96, then he can really get to his best pitch, which is a very good change up. He throws a lot of strikes. He's very athletic. It's a good projectable frame. It's just a matter right now he doesn't really have a breaking ball.

and there's a question about how much fastball value you're actually going to get. The change-up can really help, but look at Emerson Hancock. Like Hancock has a pretty good change-up. It's really his best pitch. But because he doesn't really have a fastball that has value to set up the change-up, he can't usually go five, six innings without running into trouble. So it's kind of a weird thing because he is fairly new. Shen is fairly new to professional baseball.

but he's 21 years old. He's projectable, but we're not quite sure how much he can actually add to his frame. But he is an interesting arm. Again, it's a good athlete with at least one plus pitch who throws a ton of strikes. And there's some reason to believe that he could have a second or even a third above average pitch. So this is one of those guys where, you know, we might forget about him in a year or two. But stuff-wise, he's in a pretty decent.

spot and he is quite young in terms of professional baseball. This is only his first year. So this is a guy who could jump up the ranks here in a year or two. This is a guy who could fall off him completely. But right now, again, plus change up, plus command and control, good frame, athletic, repeats his delivery. There's a lot of tools here. He just has to put it all together.

And Seattle really does have to help him find fastball value, which, you know, Seattle's pretty good at. Not the best, but they're pretty good at it. So I think there's a lot of projectability here. Coming in at number 25 is right-handed pitcher Matt Tiberia, 23 years old, comes in at number 24 on Colby's list, number 25 on mine and is another new guy on this list. And Colby, if it wasn't for an arm injury that has apparently shut him down for the

rest of the year, we'd be really excited about Tiberia. but he still makes us less, but he had a really, really good start to the season before going down with the injury. And of course, this is a former Tommy John guy. We don't have the specifics

on what the arm injury is, but he's done for the year because of the arm. So that's a little bit, yikes city on that front. Unfortunate. He's the 18th round pick last year,

19th round pick. He was one of the last picks of the draft last year. And he just went out there and he threw the ball very well. Now, I'm going to say this, and I'm not saying that they're the same guy because they're not. But when you watch him throw, when you watch his kind of delivery and you watch his athleticism, you just watch his presence on the mound, you watch the pitch shape, there's some Brian Wu in this wind up in the ease of the delivery.

Now he doesn't throw as hard as Wu, but he might someday because he's a good athlete. It's a very clean delivery. It's very simple, and he's thrown 92, 93. He also throws from that low arm slot like Wu does, very similar, you know, attack angles there. So the fastball is going to play up a little bit more, even though it's only 92, 93 right now. It's a four seamer that has run, which is kind of rare. It plays up in the zone because it's thrown from such a low arm angle as well. Pretty good slider.

Throws enough strikes, I wouldn't say, has pinpoint control and command like Woo. who did or does right now. But, you know, he also had two outings where he walked four guys each, and that really ballooned his overall walk percentage. But yeah, this is a guy very athletic down the mound, very easy delivery, smooth mechanics. The ball explodes out of his hand. He's got a pretty good slider. And a fastball that I think is going to play up better than the metrics would suggest because

of the low arm angle, because he pitches at the top of the zone. This is a guy who if he wasn't hurt, he would be a prime candidate to go to the high performance camp and try and get, you know, an extra three, four miles an hour out of that fastball. Maybe, you know, we'll see what the injury is, but maybe he's a driveline guy who can go and get, you know, get a couple more ticks because if he's throwing 94, 95 from that arm slot with the slider and the ease of his delivery, he's got a shot. He's got a shot to be a starter. And at the very least, he has a good shot to be a reliever, but he's a good reliever.

But he's got to be healthy first and foremost. And he does, I think, I think the VLO is going to be a little bit, is going to be pretty important to him. So he's got to be able to throw a little bit firmer. But there's a lot of tools here to like. And he got off to a really good start in his first 10 professional outings. But again, unfortunately, the arm injury is real. And I just, because I don't know the severity of it, I just felt like I had to put him on the list where I did before the arm injury happened. And so I kept him where I had him originally. All right. We will wrap up prospects through 30 through 21. in just a moment, but first, a reminder, this episode of the Lockdown on Marys

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That's game day, H-U-E.com. The code even stacks on bundle deals. So now's the time to load up. Let your colors talk because colors speak louder than words. That's game day hue.com promo code MLB-15. And you're listening to the Locked-on Merritt podcast. We are ranking prospects 30 through 21 in the Maris Farm System. And we still have numbers 24, 23, 22, and 21 left to go.

on today's show. Let's get into number 24. Brock Rodden, utility man, down in AA, 25 years old, comes in at number 28 on Colby's list, number 20 on mine. He was 22 the last time we did this. So I guess that's on clearly the high man on Brock Rodden. I'll tackle this one. Rodden to me, again, talking about probability,

talking about, you know, is this guy going to get to the major leagues? I think he will. know how good he is defensively. He was obviously hurt this year. He's only played in 34 games at the AA level this season. But he's really hitting 294, 355, 478, 144 WRC Plus. He's actually shown some pop as well. The one concern here, and it really is just the lone concern, the strikeout rate.

He's striking out 31% of the time right now. That's not good. That has to get out, especially for his 12. As a 25-year-old. Yeah, as a 25-year-old. as a 25 year old. So that that's a bit of an issue. That's quite a big red flag there.

But outside of that, this is a guy that, again, he's getting on base a ton. He plays really good defense at multiple spots. He steals some bags. He does take a fair amount of walks as well. So he does counteract the strikeouts a little bit,

but the strikeout rate is still way, way, way too high. However, I would say that honestly, I kind of feel like if you're looking for the Dillan Moore replacement in the organization, this is actually the guy not Ben Williamson.

The reason he was quote so low on my list is he's a 25 year old who's striking out 30% of the time at double A. Yeah. Like for me that is really hard to overlook. I don't really care how good the glove is. I don't really care how good of a runner he is. He's a good runner, but he's not like an absolute burner who's going to, you know, steal 35 bases. not that he's going to play enough to steal 35 bases because the bat just isn't going to be everyday quality. But yeah, I do think that there's a shot that he's Dillan Moore. I mean, Dylan Moore strikes out a lot.

But I do think that that's a shot. And that's obviously his ceiling is that like he's like a Dillan Moore type of guy who, you know, plays a couple times a week, comes off the bench late to, you know, play defense or try and steal a money bag. I don't think he has the same power or bat speed that Dillan Moore does. but yeah it's tough for me to sit here and say like oh he puts the ball in play and it's like not really i mean 69% of the time nice he does uh and he does have a pretty high success rate of turning that limited contact into you know base hits and whatnot so uh i like the guy fine i think he's a utility guy off the bench but again the strikeout rate spending most

of the year at 25 years old i would really like to see him up in tacoma for the last month of the season. I think you need to see what you have there. But yeah, like I still think this is an intriguing player. It's just the strikeout rate and the age. He is older than most AA guys. And he's not, he's hitting, but he's not really hit. Like to me, I think it's important because of the lack of power that Rodden shows that he can hit for some average.

And I don't think the success rate of guys striking out 31% of the time at double A at 25 years old, going to the big league level and finding a way to get 260 270. I don't think that's a very big, you know, overlap. So I have concerns about that. But is he a big leaguer? Yeah, I think you will be. And I think he'll be a pretty good one for a couple of years, at least just based on the glove and the base running alone.

All right. Coming in at number 23. Is this the first 2025 draftee we have on this list? Yeah, it is. Yeah, Grant J. 21 years old comes in a number 23 on both. of our list. Yeah, if you ask Joe Doyle, he thinks he can catch.

Like, he's a legitimate catcher, which was not the consensus because I saw others that said he was a terrible catcher. So it's kind of one of those things. I don't know if he can catch, but the calling card here is power. He is a big power guy. And he's going to swing and miss a ton. So the real question is, is can he hit for enough power to make the strikeouts irrelevant? And for that to be the case, it feels like he has to be a catcher.

Now, if the Mariners think they can make a tweak here and have him make, you know, average contact and not sacrifice too much power, then yeah, he has the arm. He has the athleticism to go play right field and, you know, he might hit 25 homers for you. I think ultimately the Mariners kind of need him to be a catcher and be a backup catcher. And maybe just maybe there's some Tom Murphy here is kind of the idea. but it's a really intriguing skill set. The power is legit. And anytime you have a guy, I'm going to trust Joe on this and say,

like, if Joe says he can catch, I think this guy can catch a little bit. And I think he can catch enough with the power that he can be a good backup catcher at the big league level, which is very valuable. Most teams don't have,

you know, one catcher, let alone a quality backup catcher. So, yeah, I'm interested to see how he goes. I don't know if we're going to see him in Modesto this year or not. It seems like we've,

probably should, but I don't know if we're going to see him or not, but the power is, is a very real thing. And, uh, yeah, he is, he's going to be one of those guys that like, probably is never going to rank super high in our prospect ranks, but is probably going to be, you know, in the top 30, a couple of turns through, uh, are re ranks. And you might be a guy that that really pops and we're like, oh, you know, he's an underrated prospect in the system. But right now it's power and you're trusting him to stay behind the plate. That's the calling card. All right. Coming in at number 20. two is another 2025 draftee and there were a lot of arms the mariners took but jackson steinsma

as a guy that stood out to both of us and we were both in agreement on where he should land on this list 22 on both of our respective list so why jackson steinsma obviously again a lot of a lot of arms that could have made this list from the 2025 draft class and uh spoiler alert guys like dusty Revis and Colton Shaw didn't make the top 30 here. So why Steensmoe over some of those guys? Yeah, when Oliver Bokter

and Joe Doyle both point to this guy is one of their favorite picks in the entire draft, you notice that. And you kind of try and learn as much as you can about the guys from Appalachian State. If he hadn't gotten hurt this last year, might have gone inside the top five rounds.

He is a big boy. 64 listed at 250. But it's a pretty interesting thing. It is, it is, like I see, he's a big guy, but he moves very well on the mound. It is plus extension, which you know I like. Velocity 92 to 94, above average spin, spin rates on that pitch. It is a good fastball.

He gets down the mound. He's got big size. and there's some real value to the slider as well and the change-up. So this could be a three-pitched dude who throws a lot of strikes and gets whiffs on a four-seem fastball thanks a large part to the extension. And we don't even know what his velocity is going to max out at. So again, when two guys sit here and tell you like that's one of the best picks in the draft and, you know, 27% whiff rate on the four-seamer in college, it's a pretty good number.

you know the slider maybe it's more of a cutter sometimes is something that has some some good shape it needs work obviously which is why he's 22 and why he was the ninth round pick not a you know not a fourth round pick and in our top 15 so yeah teams with good size though pretty good athlete I think there's more fastball velo there changeups pretty good and he throws good amount of strikes and just again when when those two guys say like

he's a very marinery, like, player like this is the guy they target. Well, typically when the mariner's target a guy with this specific skill set, it works out pretty well for them. So I think they like Seen's when the fact that he was a fourth, fifth round talent coming off of an injury,

uh, is, is something that I needed to pay attention to. So good fastball, good change up, good athlete, big guy. Uh,

it sounds like it's really going to come down to how good that breaking ball is. Yeah. We'll see what the mayors can do with that. All right. Our last prospect of the day coming in at number 21. He's back. The vanilla missile. Walter Ford is back in our top 30 after being left off it.

The last couple of times. Yeah. He comes in at number 19 on your list, Colby, 24 on mine. But he's still only 20 years old, down in Modesto. And again,

wasn't ranked the last time we did this. but he's had himself a nice balanced back year the reason that I had him a bit lower than you still a little concerned about how much swing and miss he's going to get I'm still just kind of concerned about like is he just kind of a fringe number five type of dude or is he a little bit more than that

is he a firm number five is he even maybe like a low end four eventually where does Walter Ford wind up I feel like the stuff should lead to better results than it has, particularly on the swing and miss. Now, he's gotten quite a few whiffs. Like he's had multiple games with like 12 and 13 whiffs, but he's also had quite a few games this year where he's only gotten like three or four

whiffs. So I am a little worried about the consistency and missing bats, but yeah, it's nice to see that he's finally kind of started to get it going here and started to go in the right direction again. Yeah, it was a pretty disastrous, uh, 2024. You remember he, his velocity just, dropped into the high 80s. Like, and he was coming out of high school throwing 96, 97.

There was an illness there that we don't know exactly what it was, but it took him out of it. And it was just kind of a wasted year, unfortunately, for Harry Ford. But this is the guy who was a second round pick. The Mariners really like him. He's a great athlete. He throws a lot of strikes, you know, a near sub to base on ball per nine guy this year. The sliders and curb ball both flash above average to plus.

It's just really a matter of can he get the fastball back? And he's taking good strides this year to do that. He's more 93, 94 with that pitch. But if he can get to 96, 97, like we think he can. There's a lot of upside here. Again, he's 6 foot 3. He's about 200 pounds. It's good size, good build, good athlete.

He's throwing strikes, potential to have two plus breaking balls. And the fastball might get there. I don't know if it will or not. And that's going to be the big X factor here. that will determine the ceiling like you were talking about. But it's also worth noting this kid is 20 years old. He's pitching the entire year at 20. So, yeah, it's a bummer.

He basically lost a year due to the illness and all that last year. But I'm with you. He does, I do think he needs to miss more bats. He is getting a good amount of ground balls, which is good to see. But I think it's ultimately going to come down to, can he get his fastball value back?

Because all the other tools are here. He needs a fastball value, and he needs to be a little more. consistent with the breaking balls because sometimes they flatten out on them. But again, he's only 20 years old. It feels like he's been in the org forever because he was drafted in 2022, but dude young. And he's really an experience and there's still a lot of work to do year. So, I really like it. And it's easy to forget how young he is because again, he's been in a organization for what three years now? This is year three. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I think he probably,

I think they probably keep him Modesto for the rest of the year and the next year I'll start at Everett. And And if he gets off to a good start, shows a little more fastball pacing and a little more consistency with, like, I think Ford is going to be at high performance camp this fall. He might even pitch in the fall league. And I think the goal there is to try and get some of the VLO back because he throws enough strikes. The breaking balls are good. And, yeah, he's young. He's athletic. He's got a great build for it.

So all the tools are there. It's just like, can you get that one little? quarter turn on that one little minor adjustment that unlocks everything. If you can't, then yeah, he's probably not on this list next year. If you can, he might be top 10. Like he has that ceiling. Now it's much more likely he's not on this list than he's top 10 next year. Mostly because, you know, the mayor's top 10 is ridiculous.

But yeah, I still really like Harry Ford and understanding the risk that's associated with him. Walter Ford. Sorry. Yeah, we'll talk about him later. But Walter Ford is a really interesting guy for me. And yeah, I'm not going to lie. There's a little bit of the pre-draft bias, the vanilla missile. Hell yeah.

Yeah, like that's going to factor. And I'm sorry, we're not professional prospect rankers. If you want like only the facts in the logic, go talk to Joe. But I still see, you know, two plus breaking balls, a fastball that can be plus, athleticism, size, control, demeanor on the mound. and I just think this guy might be a number three. But we'll see. There's a long way to go, but very encouraging year for Walter Ford this year.

All right. So there you have it. That is Prospects 30 through 21. They get a lot better, guys. Yeah. Tomorrow will be fun. Prospects 20 through 11. We got some fun names to go over there.

And then obviously the top 10 is awesome. It is very good. Yeah. So Thursday is going to be a very, fun show and there might be a you know a surprise or two for some in that top 10 as well so look forward to that there might be a surprise or two in you know 20 through 11 tomorrow as well so look forward to that thank you so much for joining us here on the lockdown merits podcast for colby pat node i'm tennie gonzalez be sure give us a follow on twitter at l o underscore mariners you can follow

me at tini gzalas and colby at c pat 11 that's c p a t one one we're also on blue sky you can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby, and the show at Locked-on Mariners. You can also find us on Instagram at Locked-on Mariners. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.