Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Seattle Mariners 2025 Preseason Farm System Re-Rank: Prospects 20-11

Episode Date: February 19, 2025

Prospect Week continues as Ty and Colby rank prospects 20 through 11 in the Mariners' farm system.Check out our Patreon!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolbySupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Wonderful PistachiosLooking for a snack that’s both delicious and nutritious? Get snackin’ and get crackin’ with the snack that packs a protein punch. Visit WonderfulPistachios.com to learn more. SelectQuoteGet the right life insurance for you, for less, at SelectQuote.com/LOCKEDONMLB.  FanDuelRight now, new FanDuel customers can get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in Bonus Bets if your first FIVE DOLLAR bet wins!Download the app or head to FANDUEL.COM to get started. Bet with FanDuel—Official Partner of the NBA.  FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Prospect week continues with our 20 through 11 rankings of the Marriss Farm System coming up here on the Locked-on Marriss podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors. It is Wednesday, February 19th, 2025. This is Tadeng Azales and Colby Petnode for the Locked-on Marys podcast. Part of the Locked-on podcast network, your team every day. Our top 30 re-rank of the Marries Farm System continues today with prospects 20 through 11.

And boy, has this been a hell of a show to try and record today. We've had several resets. OG listeners remember that Lockdown Marys used to be synonymous with technical issues. Now, we haven't had as many over the last year and a half or two years, but today has been quite something. So, yeah, we're ready to have the same conversation about Teddy McGrath for the third time in a row. Spoiler alert. Spoilers. Yeah. Before we get into the list, a reminder that if you want to hear from me and Colby even more

and help support the show, you can check out our Patreon. All you have to do to check that out is click the link in the description of this episode. So before we talk about McGraw and the rest of the 20 through 11 prospects, let's go over the guys that we talked about yesterday. Coming in at number 30, Carlos Jimenez, 29, Blas Castano, 28, Jared, Sunstrom, 27, Grant Nip, 26, Ashton, Izzy, 25, Jeter Martinez, 24, Kindry Martinez, 23, Tyler Guff, 22, Brock Rodin, and 21, Brock Moore. So now we are in the top 20.

And by the way, if you want to hear our thoughts on all those guys, you can go check out yesterday's episode. So coming in at number 20, of course, is Teddy McGraw, the 23-year-old right-handed pitcher 19th on Colby's list, 21 on mine and he came in at 19 the last time we did this shortly after the trade deadline McGrath is a fascinating pitcher. A lot of upside here, but he's had elbow surgery twice, one traditional Tommy John surgery and the other one to put in an eternal brace. He threw eight and two-thirds innings of pro ball in 2024, but was quickly shut down due to a flexor strain.

Joe Doyle, friend of the show, has said that everything has checked out on that front and he's good to go for spring training. But obviously that sends up some red flags. So the two surgeries, this flare up now, how are you feeling about Teddy McGraw at this point? Yeah, I think it's fair to be concerned about McGraw's long-term viability because, you know, at some point, you just you have to be available and you just can't help the team from you know the IL so McGraw having this many arm issues this early in his career is certainly a red flag but the upside of McGraw is is still present this is a guy who you know four pitch mix

throws strikes good size projects very well to be a mid-rotation starter and had he not gotten hurt at Wake Forest in his draft year he probably would have been a top top 15 or 20 pick instead of falling to the third round where Seattle scooped him up. So the upside is immense. And that's why he's still on this list despite the obvious warts there with his health. He is a projected mid-rotation starter, maybe even some upside for more. And if he was healthy, there is a good shot. He would be the best pitcher in the Mariners system, the most high pitching prospect in the mariner system.

So I get the, you know, the concern. it's understandable. Again, he's only thrown eight innings right in his pro debut in his pro career. And that led to him being shut down. But according to Joe Doyle, he's healthy. He's throwing already with the Mariners. And he's expected to be ready to go, you know, full slate, full send, you know, at whenever minor league opening day is.

So I imagine he'll start the year back in Modesto, but maybe they bump him up to Ever just because of his age and his kind of advanced stuff. Modesto probably not going to be too much of a challenge for him, but we'll see how they want to handle it, you know, in terms of like trying to keep him healthy. They're obviously going to, you know, short script him at times. They're going to skip start sometimes in an effort to just get him through an entire season for the first time and then they can start to build up, you know, the workload a little bit. So he's thrown 80, 90 endings this year. I think that's a real win for the Mariners and I think they'll take it and we'll see what they do in regards to trying

to keep him healthy all year. It does feel like sometimes you just get over that initial little hump, then you kind of clear the danger zone. And so I do think that the Mariners are going to be cautious with McGraw, but, you know, he's 23. He's missed basically his entire career. Like at some point, it's you put up or you shut up. You're just in the tank if you can't stay healthy. at a certain point. So we'll see if that's this year or not. I still really like McGraw and because of his upside. That's why he's still in the top 20 for me.

And I think, you know, I'm really interested to see what the Mariners can do with an arm like McGraw. If he's healthy, I think the Mariners are going to get really good value out of McGraw. Either be a trade, you know, a trade acquisition or as a potential replacement down the line for Kirby, Castillo, Gilbert, whoever. So it's a pretty important year for him, but this is more about just actually making the next step, getting to the next step than anything else for McGraw. There's still time here. But, you know, 23 years old, eight professional innings. You got to get some work in this spring and summer.

He has to. Yeah. McGraw was one of the guys that I was most conflicted on when putting my list together. admittedly I had him I think at one point either 24th or 25th but I thought about it more and for all the positives that you just laid out I ended up putting him back pretty much

where he was the last time we did this list because again the upside is immense but also on the other hand like you just talked about he's 23 years old now he's going to be 23 all year long but he only has those eight and two-thirds endings of work so far at a certain point it's go time for this guy and you've got to be like you have to balance ramping him up so he's still on some sort of worthwhile timeline while also you know keeping his health and mind so

going to be a fascinating year for teddy mcgraw and hopefully the next time that we we do this list we have a bit more of a positive outlook on him coming in at number 19 is troy taylor who we got to see with the big league club coming out of their pen uh towards the end of last year, 23-year-old right-hand of a reliever. Comes in at 18 on Colby's list, 19 on mine. He was 20th, the last time we put this list together. My biggest question with Troy Taylor right now,

well, actually first, let's get into this real quick because we haven't talked about it. He obviously suffered a lat strain during his off-season workouts. We weren't sure exactly when he was going to be ready for spring training, but he's already been cleared to throw. So it seems like he'll have enough time to get ramped up to be able to make the opening day roster. And so if nothing else changes in the Mera's bullpen,

I think the bullpen's probably set right now with Munoz, Snyder, Santos, Pizarro, Thornton, Spires, Sauce, and Taylor, of course. But yeah, so my biggest question with Taylor is, what role is he going to wind up in? Is he going to be a mid-leverage guy? Is he going to be a high-leverage guy? Or is he going to be somewhere in between, kind of like a Trent Thornton,

where he can do some high-leverage stuff, but you'd probably prefer that he doesn't do that often. So where do you think he winds up, Colby? Yeah, right now he's kind of in the middle. It's worth noting that, you know, towards the end of the season, he was being used in more high-levered spots and, you know, even got a couple of eight-ninth-annibaline appearances in the last week of the year.

So he certainly started to earn Dan Wilson's trust a little bit more, and you could see why you had a 11.5K per 9 and just a 3.26 based on ball per 9, almost a 40% whiff rate on the slider, you know, with one of the hardest fastballs in, you know, in Major League Baseball. The average Velo on the fastball is, you know, 80 plus percentile. So he throws hard. He's got a good sweeper. He throws strikes.

So what's not to like? Well, there were some concern. He gave up, you know, some home runs. He had some home runs at home run issues in the big league. after not giving up a single home run in the minors, he gave up four in 19 innings, you know, an 18% home run to flight ball rate.

And there were just times watching Troy Taylor where, you know, he would lose it for a little while. He would walk a guy on four pitches and then the next guy, he'd pipe a fastball or something. And, you know, uh-oh, all of a sudden our, you know, four to three lead is now we're down five to four in the seventh eighth inning.

And as we know, this offense, not necessarily built to come back from late game deficits. So, yeah, it'll be an interesting year for Taylor in that regard. I think he probably starts, you know, is just kind of, my guess is he's kind of that pivot guy when the season starts. You know, starter gets through five and a third, but there's a runner on second. They need a couple outs. They probably go to Taylor.

You know, it's a role that the Mariners do place value in. We know in the past it was been guys like Steckenrider and Chirgwa have filled that role. Last year was kind of Trent Thornton who kind of filled that role a little bit. Colin Snyder as well. So yeah, they do value that role quite a bit, that kind of that pivot guy that you hand the ball to to get it to the back end of the bullpen type, back end of the bullpen types. Could Taylor outperform that role this year? Sure, absolutely he could.

Is there a possibility that the home run problem kind of lingers and he ends up back in AAA to work on some things? Yeah, there is. But I think you look at the numbers, the strikeouts, the whiffs, the slider, sorry, the sweeper that he has. it's all very good. The fastball veal is very good. He throws plenty of strikes, especially for a reliever. So it's all there for him. And if he is, you know, kind of pitches his way into being a another high leverage option for the Mariners,

I wouldn't be shocked. But I think this year he settles in nicely as kind of that, you know, a little bit better than Thornton, not in the brash, Munoz tier. So I think he's probably, you know, what Colin Snyder was last year, I think is probably where he ultimately settles and maybe not as good of numbers, but I think that's the role he'll eventually be in. Coming in at number 18 is catcher Josh Karen, the mayor's fourth round selection last year's draft, 21 years old, comes in at number 20 on your list, number 17 on mine, and he was 22nd the last time we did this list.

So, I mean, two very obvious things here with Karen that makes me very interested in him. One, pretty good shot he's going to stick behind the plate, and two, he has a lot. above average power for a catcher. We probably use this comp too much when talking about catchers. I mean, we've talked about it with Blake Hunt. But with Karen, it's like, could he eventually become 2019 Tom Murphy? You know, a guy that's going to hit for above average power and give you at least average defense. So that's the hope there with Karen.

He's also someone that I think is going to rise pretty quickly through the minors. Really interested to see how his year goes. this year. Yeah, Karen's one of those guys who really sprung up late in the process. He was a prospect. He was going to go on day two regardless, but he had that big, big 10 tournament. I think he had like six home runs in that tournament, seven home runs, showed some real power at all fields.

He's a pretty good defensive catcher as well. I think the, you know, another comp that Mariner fans are familiar with. There's a shot he's Mike Zanino and Zanino, you know, didn't live up to his number three overall pick billing. but, you know, he was an All-Star once. He had a really good career, really solid catcher, you know, and just hit bombs. I do feel like Karen is kind of destined to be that type of guy. So, yeah, he's a really fascinating player.

He could end up being the next catcher after Cal Raleigh. All eyes are on Harry Ford, but, you know, we know some of the problems with Harry and also some of the problems with, you know, the timeline of Cal and Harry Ford. Karen's a guy who probably sees, I mean, probably could see double A this year. I think that's a real good shot and we'll see how he does there. I imagine he's going to start the year. I think Everett. I think Everett.

Yeah. I think so. And he got off to a really good start with the Mariners last year in Modesto. So he's an older player. He's a catcher. So I do think Everett's pretty likely. And then eventually Arkansas, he's a really interesting guy. And if you're a major league catcher, right,

and you're a quality defensive major league catcher, you only need one other tool, really, to be an everyday catcher. And Karen has power. So, you know, if the hit tool comes around at all, if you can draw a walk at all, and he maintains his raw power and maybe it translates a little bit more into games than it currently does,

but it doesn't have to be that much more, then you might have an everyday catcher here in Karen, certainly not a Cal Raleigh type, but there's only one of those. So no shot at Josh. But to further your point and go back to your Zanino comp, even if you only hit a buck 98 or whatever, but you can also hit 20 to 25 bombs

and provide at least average defense behind the dish, you're going to be a major leaguer for a while. Yeah. So, yeah, so I really like Karen. I'm fascinated by him. And again, like I said, I'm really interested to see how he's, year plays out this year with its first full year of pro ball.

All right, we're going to get into more of these guys here in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the lockdown marriage podcast is brought to you by wonderful pistachios. Looking for a snack that's both delicious and nutritious? Crack into a good source of protein with wonderful pistachios. Wonderful pistachios is one of the highest protein nuts. Each one out serving has six grams of protein, giving you over 10% of your daily value. Plus, they're packed with fiber and better free.

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Visit wonderful pistachios.com to learn more. you're listening to the locked on merri's podcast we are ranking prospects 2311 in the merris farm system teddy mcgraw comes in at number 20 troy taylor number 19 josh karen at number 18 coming in at number 17 is 24 year old right-handed reliever hunter cranton mayor's third round pick this past year's draft comes in at 17 on your list colby 18 on my list 21 last time we did this list you and i are both really on Hunter Cranton and he's gotten quite a bit of buzz in spring training so far. I believe Ryan Dibish was the one that tweeted out. We could see Cranton pretty soon in the big leagues.

I think right now he could get major league hitters out. You feel the same, right? Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Cranton is third round pick last year. He was a money saver after they went overslaught with their first two picks. And pretty good one, pretty good money saver.

If you're going to grab a guy who pitched to Kansas last year, not a ton of workload in his career, kind of an older player too, 24 years old. But he had, you know, fastball, it's a classic four-seam slider power righty combo. So, you know, the four-seamer last year, 95 to 99 tops out at 101, had a 36% whiff rate in college. The slider, 86 to 88, had a 51% whiff rate. Now, obviously those will go down in, you know, pro ball, but 36% whiff rate on a four seamer would be elite. I mean, Luis Castillo is an elite whiff on the four seamer type of guy, and he's typically between 28 and 30%. Now, again, those are college stats.

Cranton's got to do it against, you know, the big boys and whatnot. But again, it's a very, there's no delusion from the Mariners that he could start. So there's no reason to go through that hole back and forth. He's going straight into the bullpen. He's throwing 98 to 100 with the fastball. He's got a pretty filthy slider. And it is just a classic two-pitch power-riding approach. And this dude's going to be in the big leagues at some point this year.

And I think he'll probably hit the ground running. I would expect him to be at least a mid-leverage reliever to start. And it really does feel like, you know, his floor. Now, again, you never know with relievers. Sometimes they just lose all field and they can't throw strikes. And that throws everything off. But if he is near the strike zone with his stuff, he's going to get high leverage outs for a few years for the Seattle Mariners at least. So, yeah, Cranton, big fan.

I had him just ahead of Taylor in my individual ranks. I get why some people have him flip-flop, but I think Cranton's got a little more upside. I feel a little bit better about him being a high leverage army eventually. And again, the slider is just, it's filthy. It is very much a classic, you know, 2004 close. type of mold where now seemingly everybody has you know throws 96 with a slider but cranton is plus fastball plus slider command control probably waivers between 40 and 45 so that's the one hang up here and the fact that he's just a reliever obviously that hurts his overall value

but yeah cranton is going to be a good one feel really confident about that yeah i feel like even if everyone in the bullpen stays healthy granton's going to force their hand at some point. They're going to look at what they have and they're going to go like, we like Trent Thornton, but we love Hunter Cranton. Right. And, you know, again, one of the bonuses for Cranton, 780K versus 2 million. Right.

So, you know, should that matter? No. Does it? Welcome to the Seattle Mariners, baby. Like, that's all that matters. So, yeah, I wouldn't be shocked at all if Cranton like, I'd be a little shock, but if Cranton has a really good spring and the mayor's confined to take her for like a Thornton

type of arm, I wouldn't be shocked if they made a small trade and just put Cranton on the opening day roster because if Cranton, if you only need two of these guys really to hit between Cranton, Snyder, Taylor, and Santos, if two of those guys reach their ceiling, you have one of the best bullpins in the American League. Maybe the best. So, yeah, that's, that's,

kind of upset we're talking about here with with cranton yeah not bad for money saving pick coming in at number 16 is tyler locklier 24 year old first baseman slash dh comes in at number 16 on both of our list so comes in and number 16 on the master list uh you and i are actually kind of lockstep on a few of these guys i believe uh here um in between uh 20 through 11 i think we're going to see a few more of those guys that we're aligned on uh but uh five spot drop from the last time we did this list for Locklear Colby. His cup of coffee in the bigs did not go well. He struck out 40% of the time.

Yikes. Yeah. Yeah, my concerns with Locklear pretty much the same as they've been for the last year or so. Can he catch up to velocity, particularly on the inside third of the plate? Didn't see that. Didn't see improvements on that front this past year. So it's just a really long swing. And I'm just, I'm not sure if that's a fixable thing for him right now.

Yeah, he's got the little kind of hand, uh, Twitch thing before, you know, in the load, uh, it's very much not as exaggerated as Sheffield, but it's that kind of little hand, you know, Twitch. I can't see, but you guys know what I'm talking about before he starts his swing and it's a longer swing on top of it. So yeah, uh, you know, I think the Mariners weren't too impressed with with, with Locker's. either because again all winter they had a need at third base they had a need at first base and tyler lockler's name didn't come up once all winter like that probably should be the big warning flag now to be fair uh we found out that locklear was dealing with a pretty annoying wrist injury uh last year uh and that his exa velo and a lot of his underlying stats in tacoma were fine.

They were really good, actually. So a bit of bad luck, a bit of injury risk, or a bit of an injury that wasn't well known at the time either. But at the end of the day, it's a 40% strikeout rate. And Locklear is a first base only. You have to crush the fastball. Have to. And right now, I don't know if he can or not.

So, yeah, I actually had them lower, but Ty forbade me from putting Ryan Bliss on this list. I thought we got past out yesterday. Yeah, you thought you would think. But, yeah, Locklear, you know, he'll start the year in AAA. I don't want to give up on him entirely. But he already kind of kind of had a lower floor, 25 home run. First baseman was kind of the ceiling there in my mind.

And we talked a lot about his raw power for the last couple of years, but it's never really shown up in a big way in games. He doesn't put up Gotti home run total. so I am very much, you know, about done with the Thai Locklear, you know, hype train. But we'll see. You can certainly turn it around. And it's guys have added bat speed and guys can make swing changes to have a quicker path through the zone.

So it's not definitely over, but this is a big year for Locklear, I think. Yeah. He did save Edward Bizarro that one day, though, when Bizarro almost blew that hugely against the Rangers. but yeah that that was really the I mean that and who did he homer off of was it crochet it was crochet that's wild to be fair crochet crochet crochet tried to throw him a change up yeah which is not necessary so took advantage of a dumb pitch selection uh from the 99 mile an hour garret crochet he threw a 90 mile an hour change up yeah uh lock clear can catch those yeah so those were the two things that stood out, two positives that stood out from his,

what, 16 games that he played at the Major League level this past year. But yeah, I have some pretty big concerns about him offensively. So we'll see if he's able to make the necessary tweaks to kind of fix his offensive profile. All right, coming in at number 15 is Michael Morales, 22-year-old right-handed pitcher, comes in at number 15 on both our lists. number 14 the last time we did this list really no fault of his own though Morales had a great year we had a lot of questions about Morales heading into 2024 and he was actually able to finally take that step forward that we were hoping to

see out of him so how impressed were you with with Morales's 2024 and how much has his profile kind of changed in your mind mildly and not that much I think his ceiling is that of a number four starter. I think he's probably at best a number five starter. There's just not a lot of, you know, wow here in the profile. It throws enough strikes. The stuff is okay. There's not one.

Not a lot of swing and mess, though. No, no. So he's going to rely on contact. He's going to try to do soft contact, work the corners. And, you know, we know that that type of, you know, profile can get dudes out still at the major league level. it's just when you have that little upside, you get pushed out pretty quick, right? You know, there's always going to be somebody

who's going to miss more bats, and that is something that is more valuable in Major League Baseball than a ground ball. You know, I know an out is an out, but a strikeout, nobody advances. A ground ball, people can advance and those turn into base hits sometimes. So, yeah, I just, to me, Morales,

is on this list because he's probably a major leaguer, and he's probably going to eat some innings, you know, like kind of Emerson Hancock like, whereas just he's going to battle and he's going to work the corners. And now you're going to just mercilessly rake him over the coals every chance you get? Yeah, because it's not special. So, you know, and people should stop acting like it's special.

So, yeah, I think Morales is a solid prospect. I would say there is, as things stand right now, a 0% chance he ever goes any higher in these ranks because to me he's just going to end up being a number five starter. I mean, unless the command and control are like 65 grade, 70 grade, his stuff's just not going to play up enough to be much more than that. You know,

he'll be kind of that two-win pitcher because he goes 170, 180 innings with pretty good, you know, like four fifths and that type of thing. And he'll just kind of guile and will. will himself to eat innings and go six every time out. And I think that's his future, which does have value. But you're that close to being Emerson Hancock. And that is not a major equality pitcher. So yeah, it's kind of a low ceiling, super high floor profile.

I mean, the two things that concern me about his 65 innings and double A, you mentioned, you know, you got to keep the ball on the ground. Right. but he didn't even really do that. 32.2% ground ball rate in AA and a 14.1% home run to fly ball rate. The home run to fly ball rate needs to be lowered and the ground ball rate needs to go up pretty significantly by the time that he gets the majors.

If he's not going to miss enough bats. Now, he did average a strikeout per inning in AA, but again, the stuff to me just isn't good enough to consistently rely on swing and miss at the major league level. So he's got to keep the ball on the ground. far more than he has down on the miners. It's kind of Chris Flexen-y, and we know how small margin of air was for Chris Flexen.

So, yeah, we'll see. I mean, I think Morales, I think the best way Morales can help the Mariners is being the guy that gets them this year is Justin Turner. Like, he's a solid prospect. There's nothing wrong with Morales, and a lot of clubs would love to add him to their farm system. It's just in the Mariners system

and where the Mariners' strengths currently lie, there's just not a ton to get, hyped about in regard to Michael Morales. But solid prospect, and he had a good year last year. You got to give it to him. All right. We have a few more prospects to go over in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Locktime Marys podcast is brought to you by

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Coming in at number 14 is Ben Williamson, 24-year-old infielder for the Mariners. 14 on Colby's list, 13 on my list. Came in at number 15 on our master list the last time we did this. So kind of same thing that we talked about with Brock Rodin yesterday. talked a lot about Ben Williamson as the potential Dylan Moore replacement because Moore is obviously going to become a free agent at the end of this year. Now, Williamson doesn't hit for the power that Moore does, but he's a really good defender. He can play quite a few positions, good athlete, and he did have a pretty good offensive year done on the minors this past year. So how are you feeling about Ben Williamson?

Yeah, it's a plus glove at third base. He can play shortstop if you need them to. it's just totally going to come down to the bat. You know, if he can hit and he can hit for some power, he's probably going to end up being an everyday player. Do we have a lot of proof that he's going to be able to do that, though? Not really. He wasn't terrible in double.

Only four home runs last year. Right. And that's not a great ballpark for right-handed power. We get it, but that's still not great. I mean, he only played half his games there. So there's really a plus defense, and you're probably hoping he hits 260, 270. But even in Everett, when he slugged, it was gap power.

It wasn't over the wall power. Yeah. Yeah. So the over the wall power hasn't shown up yet. And obviously we know if you're a third baseman and you don't hit for power, it's not enough to just be a great defensive third baseman. Otherwise, you're Josh Rojas, which is fine in a stopgap, but it's not a long-term outlook type of player and you're always looking to do better.

So if you're Ben Williamson and you're only and you're going to max out at 12 home runs, even if you're Matt Chapman defensively, which I don't think he's quite that good, but he's really good. Then you probably need to get 260, 270 with 350, 360 on base and 35 doubles. So I think offensively, you're really hoping he can be like good tie France. And if he's good tie France at the plate with his defense at third base, he's probably a four and a half five one player. So there's certainly

starter upside here, but he's 24. You know, he was a second round pick. Like, it's time to put up or shut up at the plate because either you're going to be

a role player at the big league level and a defensive replacement, or you have still have an opportunity to be, you know, an everyday player and maybe just maybe if you can find the right tweak, if you can make the right adjustment at the plate, you might end up with an all-star third basement here.

Built on the back of, you know, elite defense. So we'll see how it goes for. him, big year for Williamson. He's going to start the year of AAA. Good chance we see him at some point this year at the majors, I would think. But he has to hit, and he has to have more impact at the plate. If he's going to be anything more than kind of, you know,

two or three times a day, defense-only infielder. So it's time for him to put up some numbers. Coming in at number 13 is Logan Evans, 23-year-old righte. He comes in at number 13 on Colby's list, 14 on mine. And he was right here at number 13 the last time we did this list. So we haven't changed our opinion on Logan Evans really at all. You know, we had Jerry Depoto on the show about a year ago at this point, exactly. And he was beaming about Logan Evans.

And made it sound like maybe Evans is the next great find for the Mariners and the draft. You know, it kind of sounded like, oh, wow, could this guy be like the next Bryce Miller or Brian Wu? and as 24 progressed obviously Evans looked a lot better than he did in college because college was kind of a disaster for him, especially in his last year at Pittsburgh, but

he wasn't he wasn't blowing mines, right? He was just yeah, he was just solid down on the miners. Then, you know, they tried to experiment with him coming out of the bullpen, they decided we don't really like how that works and then they ramped him back up as a

starter so he had kind of a weird year overall kind of a stop and start year uh ends up throwing 107 innings for me it's just it's a very similar conversation to michael morales there just isn't a standout swing and miss pitch here so what is logan evans ultimately is he just another emerson hancock type of arm i think the stuff is better than hancock and morales and i think the commanding and control is better than both of those guys. And that's why he's ranked higher than Morales. By the way, at the very least, he kept the ball on the ground last year, unlike Morales. Right. And so, you know, also the bullpending also kind of a convenient way to, you know, keep his innings intact without shutting him down, his workload in check. So, yeah, I think this

will be a really important year for Evans. My guess is they send him back to double A. They don't like to send them their top pitchers to AAA anyways. So they'll probably send him back to double A. and there is some upside here. The slider's fine. The two seamer gets, get some ground balls and whatnot. So there is still the upside of a sinker, slider,

you know, kind of kitchen sink starter who gets maybe eight Ks per nine and doesn't walk anybody and gets ground balls to get out of a tight spot. Like I still think he has a higher upside than Morales. But yeah, I was really hoping that at this point, you know, we would be talking about Evans as like a top five or six guy based on how Jerry was hyping him up.

And based on how the, the velocity was was trending and all that stuff and ultimately he just ended up being 94 to 95 you know which is fine uh with good secondary stuff but not great not not plus nothing like that so overall i think the hype kind of kind of destroyed uh Logan evans and kind of made a season look less good than it was if that makes sense but uh i think Evans is a good solid prospect and I think a lot of teams would like to have Logan Evans in their farm system. And yeah, there's still, there's still enough here for me to say, like, he might be a three, might. But he's probably a number four.

And I feel that like he's going to be a big leaguer, a safer bet to be a big leagher than a Michael Morales with more upside. So that's why he ranks higher. Coming in at number 12, it's another one of these guys. Brandon Garcia, 24-year-old lefty, 12 on Colby's list, 12 on my list, and 12 the last time we did this. So pretty much chalk here with Garcia. You know how we feel about Brandon Garcia. I've talked about him quite a bit on this show over the last few weeks. I think he could really play up out of the bullpen. And I think that's where the Mariners are going to get the most value out of Garcia as long as he's in their organization. And I think that could happen relatively soon. I think with that cutter,

the cutter is the key. I think the cutter is going to allow him to be able to effectively take down righties and lefties and potentially build himself up as a high leverage reliever sometime down the line. Yeah, it's fastball cutter, the cutter and the slider are both swinging miss pitches. They both get generated a lot of whiffs. It sounds like the Mariners have already made that decision that Garcia is going to be a reliever for them. And because of that, he has like Cranton, he has a outside shot to make the opening day roster. Wouldn't be shocked if that happened. But more than likely he's one of the first guy's called up if there's an injury or if spire or Saucato or ineffective, they'll make that call

pretty quick, I think. So Garcia, you know, maybe he's Tanner Scott. That's probably the ceiling. That's a lot to ask of anybody to be Tanner Scott. That's the best left for you in the game right now. Yeah. I mean, like maybe he's Andrew Miller. Maybe he's Drew Pomerantz. But, you know, maybe he's just good, Gabe Spire. Like, 2023 Gabe Spire was really, really good. And if he's that to any degree for you this year, your bullpen's in good shape. So, yeah, he's probably just a peer reliever right now. I don't think he couldn't start if you wanted him to, but I just think the Mariners are trying to figure out how to get the most value out of him as soon as they can. And that's why he's moving to the bullpen.

I don't think they don't think he can start. I just feel like they feel like he's a big leaguer right now. It's very similar to the DS. And also, you know, your rotation is your rotation. We don't need to talk about it. Yeah, we know what the deal is there. So what's the best or what's the easy? this path to actually get some value out of Brandon Garcia

so long as he's in the mayor's organization. It's as a reliever and he actually has the tools unlike Logan Evans to make it work. And he gives you a look that you might not have in your bullpen. I mean, you might have in Gabe Spire if Spire's able to bounce back, but hey, maybe you have another

guy like that. You know, maybe hey, cool, if Gabe Spire is great but also Brandon Garcia is great, awesome, perfect. I'm relatively bullish on Spire this year. So we'll see how that goes. But it's also worth noting just because he's a reliever now, doesn't mean it entirely closes the door on him being a starter down the line.

Garrett Crochet is an example of that. So we'll see how it goes. But yeah, Garcia, I think he is the arm in the system that has the greatest chance to truly impact the 2025 Mariners. All right. So our last name to go over today coming in a number 11 is your hair, Batista, 17-year-old outfielder was one of the top prospects in the international

signing period. The Bears end up landing him last month. Comes in a number 10 on Colby's list, number 11 on mine. Of course, wasn't ranked the last time we did this because he wasn't in the organization the last time we did this. Again, it's a very similar

conversation to the one that we had about Kendri Martinez. He's a 17-year-old kid who you and I, we haven't seen, right? We're hearing the reports. We hear how excited people are about your hair, Batista. But from our perspective, we can only go off of so little information when it comes to him. But

yeah, I mean, it's big power. He's a defender right now. It's a true five tool profile. Yeah, it's exciting. Like the things that you hear about your hair, Batista sounds like there's a path here that he could be a superstar,

which, look, that's the case with a lot of guys that come out of the international signing period. And, And, you know, things changed very significantly over, over the years. But, yeah, Batista is someone that definitely has the potential to be one of the best prospects in the Mara's farm system eventually, if not the best prospect in their farm system. Right. It just time. Time is his enemy right now.

He just doesn't have any in the minor league system. And, you know, the nice thing about Batista is just like Felman. There seems to be very little doubt that he's going to stick up the middle. So you have a five-tools centerfielder. potential at 17 years old. It's going to rank high in a lot of lists. And the fact that he has no track record of facing pro pitching, and we still have them in our top 10, 11,

you know, that speaks a lot to just how insanely talented this kid is with his raw tools. So there's a shot we're talking about him like Feldman in a year or two. But, you know, it sounds like the Mariners got a really, really good one. one of the only guys who carries a five tool, you know, label out of this international free agent class. So Marin fans should be excited. It's just, it's going to be a while before you see him. I think 2027 is probably when you see him state side. Maybe next year, 2026, he gets to the Arizona League or something like that.

But I think in terms of Modesto and that and, you know, actually getting on the road to the big leagues, I think 2027 at the soonest. And obviously there's always the DeWall Joseph, like qualifier. you never know with these guys. They could just completely fall apart early. But Batista certainly has that type of pedigree and that type of skill set where it's like, yeah, he might be Felman. Like he might be that next guy. So we'll have to wait and see.

But yeah, very excited about Batista. All right. Well, there you have it. The top 10 is coming your way tomorrow. And I've got to say, it's going to be a fairly different looking top 10 than the last time we did this. So look forward to that. But thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marrars podcast for Colby Patnode. I'm Tiding Gazzalas.

Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Tadigazales and Colby at C-Pat-E-1-1. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby, and the show at Lockdown Mariner's. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.