Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Seattle Mariners 2025 Preseason Farm System Re-Rank: The Top 10

Episode Date: February 21, 2025

Ty and Colby's 2025 preseason re-rank of the Mariners' farm system concludes with the top 10!Check out our Patreon!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolbySupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Wonderful PistachiosLooking for a snack that’s both delicious and nutritious? Get snackin’ and get crackin’ with the snack that packs a protein punch. Visit WonderfulPistachios.com to learn more. SelectQuoteGet the right life insurance for you, for less, at SelectQuote.com/LOCKEDONMLB.  FanDuelRight now, new FanDuel customers can get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in Bonus Bets if your first FIVE DOLLAR bet wins!Download the app or head to FANDUEL.COM to get started. Bet with FanDuel—Official Partner of the NBA.  FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It's time to break down the top 10 prospects of the Marriss Farm System heading into 2025. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors, it is Thursday, February 20, 2025. This is Tanya Gonzalez and Colby Patnode for the Lockdown Marys Podcasts. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network of your team every day. Our top 30 re-rank are the Maris Farm System.

comes to a close today with the top 10. But before we get into the top 10, a reminder is always that if you want to hear from me and Colby of more and help support the show, you can check out our Patreon. All you have to do to check that out is click the link in the description of this episode. So let's go over how we got

to this point, folks. Coming in at number 30 was Carlos Jimenez, 29, Blas Castano, 28, Jared Sundstrom, 27 Grant Nip, 26, Ashton Izzy, 25th, Jeter Martinez, 24th, Kendri Martinez, 23rd, Tyler Guff, 22nd, Brock Rodin, and 21st, Brock Moore. And then on yesterday's episode, we did Prospects 20 through 11, coming in at number 20 was Teddy McGraw, 19, Troy Taylor, 18, Josh Karen, 17, Hunter Cranton, 16, Tyler Clanton, 16, Tyler Lackleyer, 15, Michael Morales, 14, Ben Williamson, 13, Logan Evans, 12, Brandon Garcia, and a 11, Your Hair, Batista.

So if you want to hear our thoughts on all those guys, be sure to check out yesterday and Tuesday's episodes. But now let's get into the top 10. And like I talked about a little bit towards the end of yesterday's episode, this top 10, going to look a little bit different, particularly once we get into the top five. So without further ado, let's kick things off with prospect number 10. That's Ryan Sloan, who was number 10 on this list?

the last time we did it back in mid-August 19-year-old right-handed pitcher comes in a number 11 on Colby's list number nine on mine second draft pick of the Mariners this past year they were able to sign him to an overslot deal for three million dollars he was a guy that was getting a lot of first round buzz but the mariners were able to double up on him and uh draen sanja who spoiler alert we're also going to be talking about at some point today but yeah sloan uh well built dude six foot five 220 that's what he's listed as uh here um and uh he's already throwing mid 90s can top out at 99 a lot of stuff to be excited about here with the 19 year old who uh again is already physically filled out it's just we haven't seen him in pro ball yet so how are you feeling

And it's not like really anything could have changed between the last time we did this and now, because again, he hasn't pitched yet. Yeah. You hope he probably, you know, got stronger. You know, he's just 19 years old. So naturally, he should get stronger as he goes through the rigors of professional sports. And so the velocity should, you know, pump up even more. He should sit 95, 96, you would think, going forward. Like a lot of Mariners starters, he has a really.

good fastball. He's going to get value out of that pitch. But what's kind of interesting about Sloan is his best secondary, at least when he was drafted, it's actually a changeup, which is kind of different. There's a lot of focus now on spin and velocity, even at this young age. So most arms, their best pitch is fastball. And it's either a slider or sweeper or curveball. There's an obsession with that. And Sloan has a pretty decent slider. But his best pitch is actually the change up. So it's a fastball change-up slider combination. He repeats his delivery pretty well.

It seems very likely that he's going to throw enough strikes to stay in the rotation. And he might be a relatively fast riser for a high school pitcher. Now, obviously, there's a lot that goes into develop. It's not just your stuff has to be good and you have to throw strikes. You have to build up workload and you have to learn how to take care of your arm and your body and all that stuff. So still a long road ahead for Ryan Sloan. He is really polished for a 19-year-old. He's got an opportunity to have three plus pitches.

You could argue right now he's got two already. And we'll see what the slider does. The slider is certainly going to be good enough to be a quality third offering as things stand right now. So he should be a three-pitch starter who throw strikes with all three pitches and has the opportunity to have two or three or all three of those pitches be plus. That's a minimum, a mid-rotation starter. So, yeah, and plus he already has the size. Like, there's not much dreaming left to do on like, can to get taller, can it get bigger?

He's pretty well filled out. So Sloan is a super interesting guy because he might be, he might be big league ready, at least in terms of repertoire and build and all that stuff, strike throw. And he might be big league ready, you know, in a year. But then it's just making sure you take care of them and you kind of ease him in. So, yeah, Sloan's jump really quick in this list. I don't think he'll probably ever be number one just because, you know, there are some younger guys who are even like Feldman. It just he'll probably.

So you also have the number three pick in this upcoming draft. That might very well be your next top prospect. And Sloan has a chance to graduate before any of those other guys because, again, he is. It's a relatively polished pitcher for a 19-year-old kid. You make it sound like we could see him at 21, 22 years old at the big league level. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Which, yeah, that's exciting. And you can obviously, I mean, you just look at the height and the weight and the repertoire. Like you said, it's very easy to see why the Marys really like him. And why it was such a unique opportunity for them that they just couldn't pass up on to go overslaught on him as well. Yeah. It's also worth noting that he'll be 19 all year. He just turned 19 about a month ago. So true 19 year old.

And, you know, we'll see where he finishes this year or where he starts this year even. I don't know. He might just, they might just stick him in the Arizona League just to keep an eye on him, or they might challenge him with Modesto out of the jump. And maybe he and Zier and Everett. It'll be interesting to see how they handle him because, again, there are workload concerns with any young arm. And Sloan, as polished as he is, just can't escape that.

There are going to be workload limitations on him this year. So we'll see how the Mariners handle that. But Sloan is very exciting. Coming in at number nine is Ty Pete, one of the Mariners, essentially three first round picks back in 2020. Comes in at number nine on Colby's list, 10 on mine. He was ninth. The last time we did this as well, still just 19 years old. He's played everywhere, pretty much, in the field, and just had his first full year of pro ball,

which was mixed bag, some good stuff, some not so good. stuff he struck out 31% down in Modesto that's not great i'm really interested to see where he winds up positionally and if the mariners make a decision on that uh this year at some point because again he's played some second he's played some shortstop he's played third he's played all across the outfield so do they finally find a home for him at some point in uh in 2025 we'll see on that so uh how are you feeling on on type heat Pete's really fascinating because he might be the best athlete in the entire organization, regardless of level. Plus speed, plus arm, plus raw power.

It really comes down to is can he take those skills and be a good baseball player or is he just kind of a freaky athlete? And those are the type of guys who go at the end of round one, where Pete did. But, you know, he had his ups and downs last year. Finished on the high. He was very good in the last month or so. Down there in Modesto, he struck out 31% of the time. He also stole 45 bags, had 26 doubles, 9 triples, and 7 home runs. And, you know, a fair amount of walks, 55 walks in 468 plate appearance or at bats.

That's not bad. So, yeah, he's really interesting. I think the sooner the Mariners pick a position for him, the easier it'll be for the bat to develop. And that's the real question right now is how much contact can he make and can he get to the raw power? Right now, strikeouts are too high for him. But basically anywhere you put him,

he's probably going to be above average to potentially plus. Like I could easily see him being a plus outfielder, just the speed and the athleticism he has out there, plus the really strong arm, easily play all three outfield spots. He's certainly athletic enough to handle center. Basically put him anywhere except for maybe catching. And yeah, don't forget, he also pitched a little bit in high school.

And I think he hit 96 miles an hour as a pitcher. So, yeah, Tai Pete is super fascinating player. There's definitely some floor here. And that's probably why, you know, there's some range in where Pete ranks. I've seen him rank. He's the top 100 prospect. And I've seen him like, yeah, he's like the 12th best prospect in the American system. That's a pretty wide gap.

So there's some floor here, but there is immense ceiling with Tai Pete. And like you said, he's just 29. years old or 29 19 years old uh yeah he was 29 years old we would have a problem he would not be on this list but uh yeah he's just 19 years old and he will be 19 for most of this year doesn't turn 20 until august yeah all right well we are going to continue with the top 10 here in just a moment but first a reminder folks that this episode of the lockdown marries podcast is brought to you by wonderful pistachios looking for a snack that's both delicious and nutritious crack into a good source of with wonderful pistachios. Wonderful pistachios is one of the highest protein nuts. Each one-out

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We are in the midst of ranking the top 10 prospects of the Maris Farm System. Just went over numbers 10 and 9. That was Ryan Sloan and Tai Pete, respectively. Now let's get into number eight, which is, This is going to be an interesting conversation, one that we've already had a few times on this show and over on our Patreon show as well. But Harry Ford has taken a dive in our list here. It goes from number three, the last time we did this list back in mid-August, down to number eight today. 21-year-old catcher comes in at number eight on both of our lists.

So we are in total agreement on this. again like we've talked about he didn't hit for power this year and double a and if Harry Ford can't hit for power how good is he really how good of a prospect is he really is also the question of where is he going to play

specifically if he does make his major league debut and play major league games as a Seattle Mariner so how are you feeling about Harry Ford right now I know you've been a big Harry Ford guy since he since before he was even drafted by the Marys, who were a big Harry Ford guy, but where are you at with him right now? It's all about the power.

There are a lot of concerns here because Ford is starting to gain a reputation as somebody who's too patient at the plate, almost like he's going up there trying to walk. And walks are not bad. They're very good. But the problem is when you go up there trying to walk at the major league level, you are going to fail. It's just nobody has gone. nobody has played in the major league level trying to walk right walks are a result of discipline

not a result of i'm not swinging at this pitch no matter what and i hope it's ball for and ford's approach at the plate lately has seemed to be very timid like that he's not hitting for high averages but he's posting these astronomical on base percentages because he's walking so much and it's not because pitchers are afraid to pitch to him it's because he's not swinging the bat. And he's basically taking every pitch that's not right down the middle. And that is not a recipe for success. He hasn't shown any over the over the fence power either. And while I'm not really that concerned about whether or not he can catch, I think Ford is a fine catcher. Like I don't think that there's, to me, that's not really a thing. Like,

yeah. And generally speaking, yeah, he can absolutely stick behind the plate. But specifically within the context of being a mariner, obviously you have Cal Raleigh. Like if Harry Ford is a corner outfielder for the Mariners, at least in his first year or two, then he's got a hit for more power. Yes. Plain and simple. Right. And so, yeah, it's just, it's one of those things where it's like maybe he can hit for an average

and maybe he can post better ex of Velos and maybe he can, you know, tap into power. but his whole approach right now seems to be, I'm going to walk. Like, that's what I'm going to do. And he won't swing at pitches he can do damage on because they might be balls. You know, it's just one of those things where it's almost a timid approach at the plate.

And I need him to be more aggressive at the plate. So I still like where he's still a great athlete. He's still steel bags. And again, you know, there's a reason he's still in the top 10. Yeah, yeah.

He's still a really good prospect. Yeah. He's in the top 10 of a really good farm system. Like, really good prospect. And by the way, on the power front, I mean, yeah, like you mentioned, there hasn't been a ton of over the wall power that he has displayed, but this was also a pretty typical season for him power-wise. Like he had slugged well above 400 and each of his other stops leading up to double A. And of course, that ballpark down in Arkansas is hard on righties,

especially when it comes to hitting for over-the-wall power. Right. Doesn't change the issues or the concerns that people have with his approach at the plate, though. It doesn't change the fact that he was just frankly disappointing at the plate last year either. So, yeah, there are very real concerns here. Again, I'm not really all that concerned about his defense anymore. He's such a good athlete that if he does end up having to move to right field or whatever, he'll figure it out. He'll be good out there.

I'm really not concerned about the defense. I think he's at least a playable catcher at the big league level. And if you can catch at all and also play other positions, that's insanely valuable on the bench. So I'm so it's weird to say like I'm not super worried about Ford, but I'm a little worried that his ceiling is just lower than we thought it was. It's just is he a good prospect or is he a great prospect? That's really the conversation here now, right?

Because again, he's still a top 10 worthy prospect. It's just if he winds up elsewhere or if his role old. ultimately at the major league level becomes, you know, a corner outfielder or a utility player or what have you. How does his offensive profile fit? And if he does start to chase power, how big of a drop is that and is on base skills? Because he's not hitting for a super high average.

He's just drawing an insane amount of walks. So, you know, it's just one of those things where Ford at the plate is kind of a tweener right now. and a lot of people in baseball feel that way about him behind the plate as well. Is that it's like, eh, you know, I don't know if he can catch or not. Again, I think he still can. I think he's going to steal bases. I think he's going to, you know, still draw a fair amount of walks.

He's starting the year in AAA by all accounts. So he's getting out of that ballpark. We'll see how the PCL treats him. But one other, one last thing I do want to note here on Harry Ford. I believe he's entering his age 22 season. I think this is his age 22 season, not his age 23. Yeah, he actually turns 22 tomorrow. So happy early birthday to Harry Ford.

There you go. Yeah, so he's only 22 years old. It feels like we've talked about him forever, but he's just 22. He would be in his first full season of pro ball if he had gone to college. You know, like he's still a very young prospect. He just happens to have, I don't know what, 2,000 played appearances in the minors now. like it's been a lot and so we'll see how this goes and it it just takes a little change not even by the way like about a little over 1500 yeah so it just takes a little tiny tweak in your approach i think

there's bat speed there i i think that there is you know 20 home run power there just he's got to get to it and we have to see it before we can just assume it at this stage but uh yeah like we're down on harry ford but we're not like just down on him relative to the top five yeah yeah Right. He just, he got passed up. Yeah. It's all it is. Which, again, it isn't to say like he's now, like, is he just a lottery ticket at this point? No, I don't know.

He's still a really good prospect that I think is going to be a quality major leaguer. It's just how good exactly is he going to be? Is he going to be a two-win guy or is he going to be a four, five, six-win guy? Right. I think Harry Ford would probably be the number one prospect in about five or six farm systems right now. like he's still a good prospect it's just you know other guys have a really good farm yeah coming in at number seven is the mariner's first round pick in this year's or this past year's draft he comes in at number seven on both of our lists that's gerangelo sanja switch pitcher

21 years old he came in at number eight the last time we did this list gets the one spot bump pretty much because of harry ford's fall uh we we we still haven't seen him pitch and pro ball just like with Ryan Sloan so our opinion really isn't able to shift much here it's really just where does he start the year right that's kind of the big question here probably Arkansas would be my guess uh I don't really honestly I don't think that would be too aggressive frankly I don't see really any reason for him not to start the year in Arkansas um so yeah uh yeah uh you know, we know about Sanger.

He's smaller dude relative to, you know, what you think your frontline starter should look like. But he throws strikes. He's got good stuff. From the, from the, this is all from the right side where he'll actually do most of his pitching. You know, it's a pretty good slider, good basketball value. He's going to throw strikes from the left side. It's a lot of average, you know, kind of mediocre stuff.

But it is something cool that he can do. And so long as it does. doesn't interfere with his development to the big leagues. I don't want to see a big problem with it. There is an outside shot that Sanja could get innings for the Mariners this year. I would say that's pretty unlikely. I think my guess is that they would just like to have him stick around in Arkansas all year and get his workload in there. And again, like it is with all first year pitchers, workload is a concern here.

So you do have to be on the lookout for short scripts and you do have to be on the lookout for skipping starts. and that's not necessarily a red flag. But yeah, Sanger, it's kind of on the smaller end, stature-wise, but some pretty big stuff, some pretty loud velocity as well,

and the cool switch pitcher thing. There's a lot of Marcus Stroman comps thrown out there, which I get, but also I think he's got better stuff than Stroman. So we'll see how it plays out. But if Sanja is just... That's also his favorite pitcher growing up.

So, you know, there's going to be some influence and how he handles himself on the mound and all that. So yeah, the Sherman comps are very easy to make. Yeah. So Sanja, really excited to watch and pitch. And outside shot, he helps the Mariners at some point in 2025. But I think 2026, you know, is very much on the table, depending on how this year goes. Coming in at number six is Lazaro Montes, 20 years old, first base slash outfieler, quote, unquote, slash DH.

comes in a number six on both of our lists. He was number six. The last time we did this as well. So no change here for the Las Montes who crushed Modesto, went to Everett, got off to a really slow start, and then crushed that level for the last few weeks of the season as well, and wound up turning his overall numbers down there into something pretty nice. So again, how good is the bat going to be?

be because he has hit. He's not an outfielder. He's been playing outfield. He's not an outfielder. He's a first baseman or a DH and probably a DH. So, yeah, I mean, we've all heard the insane comps of like Yordon Alvarez. He's baby Yord on, all that stuff. I actually did hear kind of an interesting comp.

I forget who exactly mentioned it. It was in the Fangraph's interview with Justin. and tool, though. Sorry to whoever did write that. I'm forgetting who did and who presented this question in this comp. But Nolan Jones was the name that was thrown out there

on Las Montas. You see some Nolan Jones there with Las? Nowhere near the athleticism. Like no defensive value really whatsoever. Las is a tough

comp. He really is. because he's so big and he's so powerful. It's just so unique to see this type of profile. But, you know, like you said, he really struggled in high A. And then he kind of figured it out. And he'll probably start this year back in high A. He should and earn his way to Modesto. And the back could be something special.

Like, it very well could be. But there's still swing and miss issues. There's still defensive versatility issues. like the idea that this guy could just be Carlos Bigero is still very much real. That is still a very real outcome for Las Montes. The Yordon Alvarez outcome, it was never real. I mean, that's been a joke from the start. It's ridiculous to comp anybody to Yordon.

So, yeah, there's just such a wide range of outcomes here for Laz that I really don't love putting him in the top five. I didn't. I know that some people have him as like the second best prospect in the mariner system. I really don't know what they're looking at to suggest that. Maybe he's athletic enough to play the outfield for the first couple of years of his career, but ultimately we know he's a DH and that limits his ceiling. And you have to be an elite hitter to be a full-time DH.

And I don't know if Laz can get there because the swing and miss is still a problem. But lots of loud contact. Power is not a question whatsoever. Yeah. you know, seems to have a reasonably good understanding of his strike zone. So, yeah, it's one of those things where I think it's a good thing that he went to Everett and struggled and then figured it out. And I think it would be great if that happened again in Arkansas sometime in the middle of this year.

So, well, as is still a guy I like. I just, I have concerns about what happens if he's just a DH. And can he make enough contact to add value as a DH-only type of hitter? because there's only a handful of players right now in the baseball who have enough offensive value to be a full-time DH. By the way, it was David Lerilla who wrote the article on Fangraphs and did the interview with Justin Tool. I believe he brought up Nolan Jones specifically to Tool

because I think Tool worked with, I think he was. Yeah, he was in Cleveland.org. Yeah, he was Nolan Jones' hitting coach. Yeah. You know, Jones has some swing and miss issues. He's got some power as well. but he's got 20 stolen base upside and I just I think that's a stretch but sometimes it's not a statistical comp. Sometimes it's just like, oh yeah, it just reminds me of this guy based on work ethic and swing and all that stuff.

So who's to say? But yeah, I think I just wanted to mention it because it's like anytime you hear a pro comp on on Las Montes, it's either Yordaun Alvarez or Carlos Pagero. and those are two complete ends of the spectrum, complete opposite ends of the spectrum. Yeah, it's such a unique, like, build and, like, skill sets. Yeah. That it's just very, very hard to come up with a good comp for them. And there may not be a wider range of possible outcomes of any prospect on this

entire list. And that's enough for me to keep them out of my top five in a very good mariner system. Yeah. but the fact that he still is number six and a really good Mariners system says a lot about how special the bat could be and yeah I'm really excited to see how his year plays out this year.

All right, we are going to wrap up the top 10 with the top five coming your way in just a moment but first, a reminder of this episode of the Locktime Marries podcast is brought to you by Fandul. When the game tips off, the NBA action is just getting started and there's no better place to get in on it

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Let's hop into the top five, Mary. earners prospects heading into the 2025 season. Coming in at number five, Michael O'Royle, 20-year-old infielder, comes in a number five on Colby's list, number four on mine. He was number four the last time we did this. Arroyo is coming off of an excellent season down in the minorism, which he answered quite a few questions that we had about him going into the season. Was he actually going to be able to hit for power?

And he did that. and then some. He slugged 500 in Modesto and then 519 in Everett. He actually wound up being a better hitter once he got to High A than when he was in Modesto. It's pretty ridiculous. He ends up hitting 23 home runs on the year as a whole. So I guess the question now is, I mean, one,

probably going to start in Arkansas, but where does he start? I would assume it's going to be Arkansas. And two, once he gets to Arkansas, whether that's at the start of the year or sometime relatively soon relatively early on in the season how is that power going to play in that ballpark for all the reasons that we just talked about with harry ford yeah i mean i think kind of a side uh you know note here is that he's a smaller dude just a smaller stature guy so how much of the power in general is real now he made some changes like some legitimate changes but is a royal actually a 20 home run guy or is he more of a 10 to 12 home run guy who it's a lot of doubles. You know, we'll see. But yeah, there's plenty to like about Arroyo.

Again, he'll be 20 all year. So he's also a very young guy who even if he doesn't start the year at Arkansas probably finishes the year at Arkansas. So this is another, you know, he'll be 21 years old when there's a very real possibility. He's major league ready. So, yeah, I mean, not quite sure. where he's going to play defensively, I think probably second or third. I think shortstop's out, but he should be able to stick on the dirt. We think the arm is strong enough to play third.

And, you know, he's going to steal some backs too. He adds some base running value as well. So there are some swing and miss concerns here, but he also walks a ton and he did hit for power last year. And those are two things that kind of can negate some swing and miss. And again, you're not looking for prospects who never strike out. That doesn't exist. But you look at the exit velos that we have, you look at the raw numbers that we have,

you look at the year-to-year improvements that we've seen. Like, Oroyo is a player on the rise in just about every farm system rank you can find. And, yeah, there's a shot he's, you know, there's a shot he's top top two or three, you know, when we do this again. And he might very well play himself into the upper echelon of prospects in the entire game. He's not well on his way. And he's a really fun player to watch. And Arkansas is going to be a challenge for him, I think, at 20 years old.

And we'll see how he responds. And if he can kind of, you know, go through his growing pains and then come out the other side even better, which he did last year. So, yeah, Arroyo is really exciting. And, you know, I think Keith law threw a Jose Ramirez comp on him as like a ceiling. It's like, slow down a little bit, Keith. If you squint your eyes and tilt your head to the side, you kind of, you can see a little Jose Ramirez there. Sure.

I mean, Jose Ramirez is a Hall of Famer, so I don't like to put Hall of Fame comps on players, but, uh,

sure, yeah, I suppose that's in like the 150th percentile outcome. Sure. I mean, why not? They got,

they got Yornaan Alvarez. They got Jose Ramirez. And they've got Francisco Lindor and Felonin Seleson, who comes in at number four. Look at that transition. me go. Colby has him number three on his list, number five on my list. He was number seven the last time we did this. So a nice little jump here for Felman-Sullesden. A 19-year-old infielder who's already stateside had a hundred and forty-four played appearances in the Complex League and crush it in those 144 played appearances. But injuries have been the big story here with Celestin. He's had a lot of stop and start. in his early pro ball career.

And he just underwent surgery to repair the, the hamate bone in his, was it his right wrist? I can't remember what it was. It doesn't say here. But yeah, so we'll see if he can say healthy. That's kind of just the big thing here.

But so far, it seems like Felon and Celston, as good as advertised. Yeah, it was his left hand, by the way. That was a left hand. So, yeah,

last year it was in the summer. the hamate and he had the hamstring. So he only played 32 games last year. And that's really the only thing that slowed him down. He is just incredibly talented. It is, you know, we talk about Tai Pete the athlete and all that. Celston's not as good of an athlete as like a Tai Pete, but he's pretty close. And his, you know, athleticism to baseball skill like that ability is off the charts. Like he shows it he's going to be a shortstop. The only reason he wouldn't be a shortstop is if the mayor just have a guy there by the time he's ready and they need to move him. There's really no doubt that he's going to wind up up the middle or third base.

There's no concern that he's going to end up being a left fielder as of right now. Good size. He's getting bigger and stronger every year as well. The power, the raw power is there. He's a plus runner, double plus runner, plus arm, above average shortstop, lots of hit tool, draws walks, hits line drives. Really, the only question for Felon is how much power is going to be. develop. Now, again, he's 19 years old. He's barely played stateside. He'll be 19 all year. We'll see what the mirrors want to do with them this year. I assume he gets to Modesto at minimum.

He might start at Modesto. Who knows? And in Everett, but yeah, we'll see how slow they want to take him because he's pretty polished for a 19 year old. He just doesn't have a lot of reps for a 19 year old, not in-game reps. So kind of this weird balancing act here and you don't want to rush the kid. Again, he's only 19 years old. But he's the guy who could rock it. through the big leagues and be, you know, ready to go by 2027 at some point. Probably 2028 is more realistic. But yeah, the ups, the sky's the limit for Felston. He's a really good prospect.

There's just a lot of risk there because he's young and because he's so far away level-wise from the big leagues. But skill set-wise, he's as good as any of them. All right. Coming in at number three is Johnny Farmelow, another one of those essentially first-round picks, three first round picks that the mayor has had back in 2020. 20-year-old outfielder comes in at number four for Colby, number three for me, and he ranked fifth the last time that we did this. Farmello's coming off of a torn ACL,

yet his stock has continued to rise and rise and rise over the last few months. You look at pretty much every top 100 list or individual farm system ranking of the errors and Johnny Farmello is higher than he was the last time. The previous iteration of those lists came out. I mean, it's not hard to wrap your head around why. Farmello is an excellent athlete. ACL injuries are not the death knell that they used to be in any sport, really. He's still really young as well.

So you would think that he should be able to recover from it fine. And that athleticism should still be present in. then some. And he showed some really nice things in his first year of pro ball. He only played 46 games, 221 played appearances before he tore the ACL. But a lot of stuff there to dream on. And really, again, just the question is, what does he look like coming back from the injury? I have high hopes that he'll look more than fine. But yeah, that's obviously going to be something that lingers here until we actually see him back on the diamond. So how are you feeling about Johnny Farmello. Yeah, I mean, before the injury, 70, 70 speed, probably 60 raw power, maybe 50.

Yeah, when we had Brody Hopkins on the show, he said, Farmello hit a ball into the gap, and like by the time that he blinked, he was at third. Yeah. Like, there's a shot, Farmello is the fastest guy in the organization, including Julio. I believe Hopkins also said Farmello is the only guy in the org who's a better athlete than he was, and Hopkins is a freak. So, yeah, now, Again, obviously we'll have to see how he feels coming off that injury, but he's also a really good size, 6-2, 200 pounds already. There are some concerns here. He does kind of have that arm bar where he locks his front arm in the swing. Very similar to a prospect, we're probably going to talk about a lot over the spring.

Jace LaValle, I believe he said he pronounced his last name. Is that actually how you say it? I'm pretty sure, yeah, for A&M, who was projected top by pick. He's kind of got this stiff arm. We have to learn all these guys, at least the top guys. Right. So he's kind of got this stiff arm, but it's one of those things where it's like, you know, you don't change it until you have to, but that is a concern. There was some swing and miss in his game. Yeah, just stays kind of locked. There is some swing and miss in his game. Again, the hit tool is pretty raw, but the raw power is plus. The speed is double plus. The defense is going to be really, really good. Assuming he comes back at, you know, back to what he was pre-injury. There's a shot that he is like poor man's Jacoby Ellsbury. or possibly you guys remember Grady Seismore when he was healthy like that was a that was put on Jerich Kellnick a little bit as well well that's Farmelis floor is is Jared

Kellnick sure who is still technically a major leagher but his ceiling is you know it's really good maybe if you're kind of looking for a middle ground comp here you might be Cedric Mullins so yeah I really also seen Christian Yellich thrown out there yeah yeah I mean that's pretty maxed out but yeah maybe not quite you know 30 home run power but steal some bags 15 home runs lots of doubles high on base like yeah i i think farmello could be a special player but lots of questions still it's not just about the acl i don't know how to explain this i'll just say it anyway johnny farmello feels like a yankees prospect i'm just going to leave it at that all right coming in at number two is cole young 21

year old infielder last played in double a number two on both of our list and was number two the last time we did this so not much has changed and of course we've talked to your guys zeros off about cole young this off season so do we really even need to go over it he's going to make his debut this year he makes a lot of contact and still play shortstop but he's going to be the mariners long term second base but that's how they've been probably steal you 20 bags is he going to hit 10 15 home

runs is he going to hit seven i guess we'll find out but he's probably going to hit for a pretty good average. He's probably going to get on base. He's going to steal some bags. He's going to play a good solid defense up the middle. The Adam Frazier comp, like prime Adam Frazier, still a really good comp. All right. Well, here we are. Number one, it's not a surprise whatsoever. He's been our number one the last few times we've done this list. And that is Colt Emerson, 19 year old infielder. Comes in and number one on both of our lists was number one. The last time we did this, just like I said. And I mean, what else can you say about the guy he's going to be really good yeah i mean we certainly think so um i guess it's really my question

is is he going to be kyle seger or corey seger yeah i think kyle seagher's a really good comp for him offensively uh sealing probably cori it does feel like the mariners view emerson as their shortstop of the future not their third baseman yeah i heard that he's slimmed down a little bit heading into this year yeah which uh you know it can work either way maybe he's a little bit more athletic and wippy, but also maybe he loses some of the strength. So it's kind of one of those, you know, catch-22s. But Emerson doesn't turn 20 until the middle of July.

He'll start the year in Everett. That's about it. I feel as locked in with that as just about anything because he went there last year and he struggled. He struggled in Everett. And that's fine. That's good. I guess what I would say about Emerson to kind of just highlight how good he is,

at least for me, the Marius have a top three pick. There are, right now I'd say there are four players that are, I would deem to be acceptable picks at number three. Right. There's Arnold, there's Arquette, there's LaValle, and there is runner. Arnold, I would rank ahead of Emerson. Okay. I probably rank Arquette ahead of him just because he's also a shortstop, who also, very similar, just older, you know, closer to big leagues. I don't know that I would rank the other two ahead of Colt Emerson.

That's how good I feel about him. So Emerson has still has a shot to be the number one prospect, even after the Mariners make that selection. He's very good. And I do think the Kyle Seeger comp is really solid in terms of that's just not floor. Because if your floor is Kyle Seeger, you're a Hall of Famer. But that feels like the 75th percentile like middle of the. Yeah.

And the 100 percentile is Corey. I think yeah, Corey Seeger's probably the 100th percentile Or maybe Gunner Henderson, maybe So yeah, he's a very good Well, how much power is he going to hit for? Sure. Because I mean, like, how many homers did How many homers did the Gunner Henderson hit this year?

I'm not sure. Now, remember, Colt only hit four last year. 37, so. Colt only hit four last year. Yeah. But, you know, he also only played 70 games. And Corey Sears has hit 30. plus three times in his career as well.

Right. Right. But the raw power is there. The swing is there. The bat speed is there. I think he's going to get to 20 home runs. I feel pretty comfortable about that. That's ultimately why I think Kyle Seeger is like a really good solid com for Emerson.

He's a good player. And just think about Kyle Seeger's offense, like good Kyle Seeger's offense, but he can actually play shortstop. That's an even more valuable player than Kyle Seeger, who was really, really freaking good. So, yeah, Emerson, I am, he's number one. There was never a doubt of my mind. I think the gap between number one and number two on my list is probably larger than the gap between like two and seven.

Like it's, it's pretty, it's pretty noticeable, just how big of the difference is because there's floor and upside with Emerson. And they're both really high. All right. Well, there you have it. That is our top 30. Let's go over it real quick again. One more time. Number 30, Carlos Amenez, number 29, Blas Castano, number 28, Jared Sunstrom, 27, Grant Nip, 26, Ashton Izzy, 25th, Jeter Martinez, 24th, Kendry Martinez, 23rd, Tyler Guff, 22nd, Brock Roden, 21st, Brock Moore, 20th, Teddy McGraw, 19, Troy Taylor, 18, Josh Karen, 17, Hunter Cranton, 16, Tyler Locklear, 15, Michael Morales, 4th, 4th, Ben Williamson, 13, Logan Evans, 12, Brandon Garcia, and 11, Your Hair, Batista. Number 10, Ryan Sloan, number nine, Tai Pete, number eight, Harry Ford, seven, Gerangelo, Sanja, number six, Las Montas, number five, Michael Oroil, number four, Felon, Celestin, number three, Johnny Farmello,

number two, Cole Young, and number one, Cole Emerson. There you go. so the next time that we do this will be sometime after the trade deadline to allow for the Marys to maybe clear out some of these guys obviously the draft will have happened by then and all that good stuff so if you're interested in Prospect stuff we'll see you again on this front in August so yeah all right that's going to do it for us thank you so much for joining us here on the locked on Maris podcast for Colby Patnode I'm Tadigazalas be sure give us a follow on Twitter at LO underscore Mariners.

You can follow me at Tiding Gazzalice and Colby at C-Pat-11. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby and the show at Lockdown Mariners. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.