Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Seattle Mariners' Payroll and Arbitration Thoughts + How Much Will Josh Naylor Cost?

Episode Date: October 24, 2025

Ty and Colby take a look at the Mariners' arbitration projections, react to Jerry Dipoto's statements about the club's 2026 payroll, and discuss what Josh Naylor's contract could look like.Check out our Patreon!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolbySupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!5-Hour ENERGYEnough with boring, flavorless caffeine, it’s time to give your caffeine a flavor upgrade with 5-hour ENERGY®️ shots. Get the favorites you love or be bold and try something new in-store and online at https://www.5hourENERGY.com or Amazon today. NutrafolSee thicker, stronger hair with less shedding in just 3–6 months with Nutrafol. For a limited time, get $10 off your first month’s subscription and free shipping when you go to https://Nutrafol.com and enter the promo code LOCKEDONMLB. ZippixGo to https://ZippixToothpicks.com and use promo code LOCKEDON for 10% off your first order.Zippix Toothpicks—energy and focus, anytime you need it.PrizePicksDownload the PrizePicks app today and use code LOCKEDONMLB to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup.PrizePicks — Run Your Game.Click Link Here: https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/LOCKEDONMLBMonarch MoneyTake control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code LOCKEDONMLB at https://monarchmoney.com/lockedonmlb for 50% off your first year.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONMLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime.FanDuelToday's episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Football season is around the corner, visit the FanDuel App today and start planning your futures bets now.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

So next week will be our first real week talking about the off season to come for the Marrars. But today we'll set the stage for those discussions. Colby, head it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors. It is Friday, October 24th, 2025.

This is Tadangazales and Colby Patnode for the Lockdown Marys Podcast. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. This episode is brought to you by Fandul. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if you bet wins, you'll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download the Fandulowl app today. And as always, if you want to hear from me and Colby Vamoran, help support the show. We have a Patreon.

It's called Control the Zone. And on there, we talk Mariners, Seahawks, all that good stuff. For more information, go to patreon.com forward slash control the zone. Link in the description of this episode. So on the show today, we're going to set the stage for some of our off-season discussion. in the weeks to come. We're going to finally go over the Mariners' arbitration projections and familiarize ourselves with them. Jerry Napoto also spoke to the media yesterday. We'll talk about one of the things he said, and that should lead us into our final topic of the day, which is the

Mariners' biggest free agent, Josh Naylor. We'll talk about what we think he'll get, what the biggest obstacles in those negotiations might be, and all that. But let's start here with the arbitration projections from MLB trade rumors, which dropped a couple weeks ago. I think it was actually while the bears were still playing the Tigers, but obviously we were still busy talking about playoff baseball, so we never got around to them. So we're finally getting around to them now. And MLB trade rumors is very accurate with these things.

We use them pretty much as the gospel when we go to do our off-season plan and all that. They might be like, you know, a couple hundred thousand dollars off here and there. on some of these projections, but for the most part, they're pretty spot on. So 10 Mariners eligible for arbitration this winter starts with Trent Thornton, $2.5 million. Randy or Rosarana, the big one here, $18.2 million, Logan Gilbert, $10 million. Gabe Spire, $1.7 million. George Kirby, $5.4 million.

Taylor Saucato, $1.1 million. Matt Brash, $1.8 million. Luke Rayleigh, $1.8 million. Gregory Santos, $800,000. and Bryce Miller, $2.4 million. So the guy that jumps out is the first one that I mentioned here. Trent Thornton, $2.5 million coming off of the torn Achilles. I think it's pretty safe to assume that he's getting non-tendered.

Now, I do think the Marys will maybe try to bring him back and let him rehab under their supervision, but they're definitely not going to pay him $2.5 million to rehab from a torn Achilles. after that though you know there's sasado at like 1.1 million dollars obviously you know he didn't have really much of an impact at all on the 2025 club but it's also not a ton of money Luke really had a down year

but $1.8 million isn't a whole lot Gregory Santos is another guy that's kind of in the Saucato range of like it's not a lot of money and for Santos it's like what $20,000 above league minimum but obviously he didn't have really any impact at all on the 2025 club. So any of those guys you go on, you know, I'm good, even though it's a small number.

I mean, like Thornton and Saucato are no-brainers. You can not tender them, probably get them back for league minimum. Thornton, you might throw some kind of incentive deal at them where, hey, you know, if you pitch 30 games for us this year, I don't know what the recovery is on an Achilles tear for a pitcher. but I think it's safe to say that, you know, it's going to be a while. So, you know, if you can get 30, every 10 outings, you get like 100 grand or whatever, and you sign them to a league minimum, maybe even a minor league deal with an opt-out date. Now, they didn't do that with Sam Haggarty a few years ago.

A different situation, I know, but Haggurty wasn't going to make a ton in ARP either, and they didn't tender him, and then they didn't sign him to a deal or a mine. minor league deal. So, but yeah, 2.5 million is just, I mean, it's a decent chunk of change just for who Trent Thornton is, not that he's not worth it when he's healthy. But even if he was healthy, that would be a number you would look at and be like, you know, maybe, maybe not. But he's not.

So Thornton's an easy one. South Sato, I don't care if it's 300 grand over a league minimum. It's 300 grand over league minimum. Like you're not paying that guy three, you know, more than league minimum. him when you're probably DFA in him anyways. Like he's not going to be on your for demand. So there's no reason to tender him. So those two guys are pretty easy.

And I say easy, meaning like from a baseball, payroll standpoint, easy decisions from a, we like those guys to say obviously not that easy. None of these are. But those are the two that stand out right away. The Luke Rayleigh one is probably the most interesting.

because Rayleigh at 1.8, he was kind of a non-factor this year, unfortunately. A couple different oblique injuries, or, well, one oblique injury, and then a re-aggravation of it. Also had some back issues, had some vision issues. So, you know, it's an interesting point because we know Luke Rayleigh when he's healthy and when he is utilized properly is a good player. He was good for you in 2024. he was good for the raise in 2023.

And it's pretty easy to excuse this year with all the injuries that he had to deal with. And, you know, you look at where your current roster is right now and you say, well, we do not have an answer in right field as things stand. And we are pretty sure we're going to have an answer at first base in Josh Naylor. We're certainly hopeful that we have an answer at first base in Naylor. So we don't need to worry about Rayleigh, you know, learning how to play first. And it's less than $2 million for a guy who's, well, It was a 130 WRC plus, just two years ago.

Yeah, something like that, yeah. So I think that's an interesting one, but he is a platoon bat. I shouldn't really face lefties at all. And the Mariners got essentially 2024 Luke Rayleigh from Dominic Canzone, who's going to make the league minimum, which is a million dollars less than Rayleigh is going to make. Now, Rayleigh isn't anywhere near as good of a base runner or a defender. So that's an interesting one. would pay him the 1.8. I think he's well worth it. Even if like let's say I don't know,

maybe he doesn't make the team, maybe he doesn't get better, you're going to be able to trade that or at least eat $1.8 million. It's really not that we would do. So I would tender him the 1.8. I'd be very surprised if they did not tender him. At the very least, they're going to trade him. They're going to trade him. They could easily trade him to Colorado or Chicago or just a roster that just needs warm bodies and wants to take a shot on a guy and maybe they can flip him at the deadline or it's you know

a you trading for a guy and the other team might want a major league piece back so that they can compete next year while trading one of their better players and so you flip him Luke greatly spoiler alerts for my offseason plan so yeah it's kind of one of those things I think the value of tendering him

is much greater than the risk but I think there's also a better than zero chance that they just choose not to tender them. But I think they should and I think they will ultimately. Yeah. Yeah. Santos. Yeah.

No brainer. It's 20 grand over. Yeah. Like you still have a shot. You saw him for two more years after this. You don't want to not pick up, you know, 800 grand and then have this guy go back to what he was before you acquired him. so and if he's not ever going to be that guy again who cares it's 800 grand you non-tender him next year

like that's the same amount you're going to spend on emerson hancock you wouldn't rather take a shot on gregory santos than emerson hancock or or luke jackson like come on so uh yeah yeah that's a no brainer yep so lastly here um because everyone else no brainer obviously rana they're going to tender um there's no risk of of you know that not happening there but at 18.2 million dollars given you know what our expectations are for how the barons are going to spend until we're proven otherwise you know and we'll talk a little bit more about payroll in the next segment but uh is that too prohibitive at 18.2 million dollars for the player that randy ultimately is really good hitter this year had one of his best offensive

of seasons, but also a very bad Cornell field defender. Yeah. Like $18.2 million again for what the mayor is spending habits are. Yeah. It's a bargain compared to the player that Randy is. Yeah. Randy goes on the open market this winter. He's making at least $20 million a year.

Yep. I mean, like there's no reason he wouldn't. So, yeah, it's, again, because of how the Mariners spend, it's the only reason it's a question. This was the Yankees, right? Like, of course they'd pick them up. If it was the Dodgers, of course, they'd pick them up. But the Mariners, you know, I think it's fair to ask, like, can you better spend that $18 million and get a player who better fit your ball club? But, like, I think they really like Randy in the clubhouse.

I know obviously, you know, Julio are really good buds now and all that. I would say to that question, can you, you know, spend the money better? I would really not like to see them try. I don't think I have high confidence in their ability to actually properly accomplish that. Like, look, we already know they need to add another outfielder because Wrightfield was a disaster for them. And really, it's from September until the end of the year. So they need to add another outfieler. Do you want to have to try and add two?

and one of them has to be better than Randy, who's a three-win player, you know, could go 30-30. I know the defense isn't great, but you can live with it, especially if he's going to hit. And Randy, the offensive floor is still actually pretty high because he walks a lot. So at the very least, you're going to get walks and he steal bases as a result. So it's kind of one of those things where, you know, can you do better for $18 million? Maybe is it a risk worth taking? no because you can fit him in like we talked about this like even with the Rb estimate of $18 million the Mariners are still you know uh 20 30 million dollars under where they were to end the year

which we're talking about here in a second is the minimum starting point according to Jerry to Poto but we'll talk about why that's iffy uh in just a second so uh I don't think you should try you obviously you're going to tender them you might trade him because he's only got a year left. I don't think they see Randy as an extension candidate. Wrong side of 30. Defense is already declining all that. Same reasons to Oscar Hernandez wasn't really all that much in consideration for, you know,

resigning and all that. But there's also a decent chance, you know, you could just slap the qualifying offer on him at the end of this year and get a draft pick the next year. Assuming he has a good enough year that you think it's worth slapping the QO on him, it'll be $21, $22 million. dollars. As long as he's a three-win player, he's worth that. So even if he accepts, you're still fine and you get him for an extra year. So I think, you know, Randy, it's really no question you're going to slap the key,

or you're going to tender him. And then you see where it goes from there. Maybe you end up trading him in the middle of the year. I don't know. Maybe you end up trading him this winter. I don't know. But Randy, to me, at $18 million, I know he didn't have a great postseason. But his floor, offensive floor, is still pretty,

darn high because he walks a lot, he steals a lot of bases. And you kind of live with the defense because, you know, he could also pop 30 homers as well, and he's well liked. So I think, you know, the decision on Randy is pretty easy. You tender him. And I would be pretty surprised if he wasn't at your opening day, left fielder or DH. Yeah. Yeah, I'd be surprised as well.

Like, I think he'll stick around. I just, I don't think whatever you would get via trade for him is worth it and worth the headache of trying to replace him and all that. So, uh, and I just, like you said, I do think that they really, really like him and they really like the fit. Um, and he's kind of found a home here. And now it might still be temporary. He might only be for 2026. Uh, but it does seem like he's, he's fit very well. And obviously he has a great relationship with Julio and, and all that. So I don't know if you also want to disrupt that as well. All right. So we're going to switch things up here. We're going to talk a little bit about what Jerry Depoto had to say to the media yesterday at T-Mobile

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MLB. Make sure to use our code so they know we sent you. And you're listening to the lockdown era's podcast. So yesterday, Jerry DePoto, Dan Wilson, and Justin Hollander all made themselves available to the media. It's more of like a, hey, we're here if you have questions type of thing rather than a more official press conference slash state of the organization. The general tone yesterday, pretty somber, pretty emotional, obviously coming off of what happened earlier this week. Justin Hollander fighting through tears talking about Monday nights game. Jerry fighting through tears.

I think that's the first time I've ever seen Jerry be emotional like that in that sense, like where he's like on the verge of crying. So that was, that was pretty wild to see, frankly. But yeah, you know, I want to talk maybe a little bit about all that. stuff, but for the most part, I want to talk about what Jerry had to say about payroll for 2026. As we, you know, again, we're kind of set in the stage for our offseason discussions to come here in the coming weeks. DeBotto said that, you know, he expects payroll this

offseason to start where it was at the end of 2025, which is, you know, one of the highest payrolls that the mayors have ever run out there. Now, we have heard. did Jerry say similar things of the past. And while it's technically been true in the end, it hasn't gotten to a point where it's been satisfactory to us, to the fan base are really noticeable. Yeah, right. It hasn't been like that significant of an uptick in payroll.

So who knows how this is ultimately going to turn out? I did find it interesting though. I'm not sure who exactly asked him. But someone asked him yesterday, they were like, you know, do you think because of the playoff run that that incentivizes, you know, an ownership group to spend more and all that? And Jerry said, I don't have the answer for you. I'm not the person to ask that question to. I thought that was some actual growth there from Jerry who has at times done backflips to try and, you know, cover for ownership. Carry the water, so to speak.

Yeah. I thought that was actually kind of a cool answer from Jerry. Like, I don't know. You asked them, right? So. In like a three-day span, we got Russell Wilson finally taking off the mask and taking shots and Jerry to Potto. Doing the same. It's a good day for, good week for Seattle sports, you know, aside from the first three days of it.

Yeah. Yeah. But, yeah, I mean, we talked about it a lot. We got a mail-back question the other day yesterday about. Um, you know, has there ever been an ownership group that's like actually spent after a deep playoff run when they normally don't? And yeah, the Diamondbacks, uh, pretty famously did it. But, you know, as for whether or not Stanton and company are going to do it, I think, you know, seeing as believing in this case and once until they actually do it, assume they won't.

Uh, you know, Jerry's talked about this in the past. He's talked about like, yeah, we've got total, you know, like we got all the money we think we need, blah, blah, blah, blah. And then we come to find out, not that Jerry will ever say it, but the rug gets pulled out from under him, and it's happened, you know, a couple off seasons in a row, and it still could happen here. We are much closer to free agency, but I believe one time the rug was pulled out from under Jerry's feet about 24 to 48 hours before free agency started. So there's still time for ownership to do another 180. But Jerry's saying it's going to start where it ended this year.

And then also indicating that it would go beyond that as well. is pretty, you know, to amongst the highest we've ever had with the Mariners. I think their high was, what, 180, 188, something like that in the last year of the Canoe Cruise, Seeger era. So we'll see what winds up, but, you know, if it is 165, which is about where it ended this year, then the Mariners right now, assuming they tender everybody and assuming, you know, they didn't make any outside additions, their payroll would be about 130, 135, somewhere in that range. It's a little hard to tell. There's some wiggle room there, which, you know, in theory would give them about $30 million,

but obviously they have nailer. They want to resign in Polo and Gino. And so that $30 million is going to dry it pretty quick. So we'll see what the ultimate number is, but it does need to be higher. And at least Jerry, you know, seem to indicate it would be. But also, so it wouldn't be the first time that ownership sent Jerry out there to the media and then called them back behind closed doors and was like, actually, yeah. Or, you know, it will be higher than that. It'll be 166 million.

Yeah. I mean, they talked about like adding like last year. Remember, they had like $60 million to spend. Their opening day payroll last year was only like a million dollars more than the previous season's end of year payroll. So who knows. And obviously there's the whole, you know, the lockout is looming and there's a TV deal that they don't have anymore. So there's a lot of things still in play here. Again, I'm a big believer in make the ownership prove it to you before you do anything.

So until they do, I don't think that I'm not going to take Jerry's word for it. But I mean, he said the right things, which I guess is something. Yeah, I just thought it was nice to see. you know, Justin and, Jerry kind of be real about it, you know, for a moment and be real about how much it hurt them.

Because, I mean, like, you know, for us, like, especially like you and I, like,

you know, this thing is almost every day for us. I mean, it is every single, you know, week day for us. Um, but even then,

like, there are times that we can take a step back and kind of remove ourselves from baseball. Um, and, you know, same thing. with the fan base like you can just turn the game off and just be done with it you know but for for jerry

and just and it's like you're living this right this is your life i mean the hours that they've probably spent at that ballpark are insane would blow our minds um so you know to see them just be real about it like how much it hurts and like you can just see it on their face like it was nice because you know especially for i think it was good for the fan base to see that too because you know a big criticism of jerry is that he's like too robotic and he's you know too much of a gm quote unquote you know he's fantasy baseball yeah yeah and and that's you know and that's conflicted with how he's tried to present himself over the years that he's been here as well as trying to be like the super transparent guy yeah and i've talked about this before how like it

kind of you know it has felt at times that like jerry is like at conflict with himself because he's still like trying to be an executive but he's also trying to be super transparent and you can kind of see him like grappling with that in real time at times when he's like speaking into a microphone so yeah i thought it was just a nice like real like human moment from those guys um and uh yeah i just i can't imagine how how much it hurts for for those guys right now uh obviously the players but just for everyone that's like been super involved in this and put so many hours into the saying over the last, you know, eight, nine months. Lastly, you know, Jerry is saying that, you know, nail is a priority, but also they don't want to say too much to the media until they actually talk to the player, all that stuff, all the typical stuff you expect to hear.

But yeah, I mean, like, not a surprise at all. Naylor is a priority. We've talked about this. Of the three big free agents that they have hit in the market, he's clearly the guy of the three of them. So we're going to talk more about Josh Naylor in just a moment. But first a reminder of this episode of the lockdown errors podcast is brought to you by Fandul. The NFL season is here and Fandual is making sure you're ready for kickoff with a can't miss offer. Right now, new customers can bet just $5.

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So again, very clearly, Josh Naylor is the Mariners priority heading into this winter. But what's he going to make? And that's a pretty big question that I'm not still super sure on you and I, Colby, We've talked about this a little bit amongst ourselves, but I think we have like a general idea of where he might wind up landing. But yeah, what kind of contract do you think Josh Naylor is going to wind up getting when it's all said and done? Yeah, it's a little tough to say there's not a ton of great comps here. I mean, Naylor is a first baseman who doesn't hit for traditional first base power.

He's hit 30 home runs once, but it came at quite a bit of. a sacrifice to his batting average and is on base. So there's kind of a, do you want him to be a 30 homer guy or do you want him to be the guy that we saw last year? I mean, there's kind of that whole thing. He's also 29, I believe, going to be 29, 28, 29. So that's a good age to hit free agency. So that's a plus on his side.

A lot of first basemen don't reach free agency until 30, 31. The body type is going to be something that's going to be held against him, unfortunately. That's just kind of the way it works. How does that age, so to speak? So I think that'll lower more of his years, not his AAV, uh, average annual value, if you guys don't know. Basically, what's the average take home pay dirt through the course of the contract? So yeah, it's a little bit of a gray area here. Like Christian Walker got 20 million, but Christian Walker was 34, but Walker was also a plus defensive first baseman. Naylor's merely good at first base. and Walker was 35 home run guy. Naylor's a 20 home run guy. So it's a little tough to nail this home, but I do think that my hunch is that Nailer is looking for four to five years at 20 million per.

And I think the market is probably going to limit him to three to four years guaranteed. Maybe there's an option somewhere out there for him. I don't think he's going to get, five guaranteed years from anybody. And I think ultimately, because of the first base, because he's only had one three win season in his career, it was last year, or this year, I should say. And because, you know, a big part of that value is the stolen bases and people are going

to wonder how repeatable that is. I think he's probably going to be looking at somewhere between on the low end, $16 million a year on a four or five year deal, or three, four year deal. maybe a fifth year option. And at the high end, 20, 21, somewhere in that range, he's not going to get Pete Alonzo.

He's not going to get, I'd honestly be pretty surprised if he got Christian Walker, even though he's better than Christian Walker, but he wasn't last year when Walker signed. So, yeah, ultimately the number I keep coming down to is about $18 million per on about

three or four years. So that's kind of where I'm, at. Obviously, if it's 18, it could be 20, it could be 16, you know, but I think I'm landed somewhere in the 470 range plus or minus, you know, a couple million bucks here or there. And keep in mind, the Mariners can maneuver it where he only makes $6 million this next year. And then in the final year of his contract, he makes 24 or whatever, right? So it's not just a straight pay line. Like, it's not just 15 a year for four years. But I do think the average is going to be, Mike hunch would be somewhere around 18 million up to about 20, 21 million.

Yeah, so, you know, for all the reasons that you mentioned, again, you know, first three wins season ever this year. Big reason for that, the sole and bases, how repeatable is that. I don't think any team, especially the mayor, is going to buy into that being repeatable. Because again, it's the, you know, second percentile in sprint speed, all that. obviously he's an incredibly smart baseball player but yeah is he going to steal 30 bags again would love to see him try but that's probably not going to factor into the negotiations on any sort of like serious manner

I have a hard time seeing that like I'm sure he I'm sure he and his representation will try to have that factor into things but I just I don't know if any team is really going to take that too too seriously the other thing though is the shoulder. How much is that going to get flagged by teams? And how much is that going to hurt him in negotiations? Maybe not at all.

It's possible that, you know, teams just, you know, and the mirrors, especially, they just don't see it as much of a long-term thing. But obviously, it's something that he dealt with all year long. He was able to play through it. Did he make it worse playing through it? There's a lot of questions involved in that. That probably more so teams on the outside rather than the mirrors have. the mayor has probably already

have a very, very good idea of where he is health-wise. But I guess if we're going to talk about concerns, potential concerns here, what might get in the way of the mayor is being able to bring him back. To me,

it starts with the Mets. What's going on with them and Pete Alonzo? Sure. If Pete Alonzo signs elsewhere, he feels like such an angel signing by the way. Yeah. But let's just say, you know, Pete Alonzo goes elsewhere.

Doesn't have to be the angels. He just goes elsewhere. I feel like the Mets would probably pivot to Josh Naylor if he's still around. Maybe he's not around by that point. Part of this is why you want the marriage to get things done pretty quick. Like don't give yourself the opportunity. But also I would just say, you know, to that idea, Josh Naylor strike you as a New York City kind of guy.

no but money talks and you know i i do worry about getting in anymore with right you know steve going sure but like if the money is hey do you want you know do you want 80 million from the met's or do you want 70 million from the mariners i feel like that's pretty easy 70 male plus the whole income taxing we're not going to get into the whole no state income tax it's not as cut and dry as people think but it is a factor and it's something that we're never going to get into, but agents and players certainly do, you know, take home pay and all that. But, yeah, I just, Nailor to me doesn't strike me as a, I guess really even an East Coast kind of guy, but I mean, Cleveland, East Coast adjacent, like kind of more good list.

I mean, he didn't choose to be in Cleveland. Right, right, right. I mean, he's from your neck of the woods, which is close to the East Coast. So it's certainly, like, possible. I just don't know, it doesn't strike me as a New York guy. But sure, there are going to be other teams. bidding even if it's not the Mets. Yeah. And so yeah, I think

it'd be great if they could get this thing done. He's not a free agent officially until five days after the last game of the World Series. So you know, I'm sure Nailer wants some time right now to just kind of, but if you're Jerry and Jesse, you might want to get on the phone and be like,

hey, Josh, what gets this done now? Like, yeah, which would be very hard. I'm going to assume that he, I'm going to assume that he's going to want to, you know, go see what's out there for him and all there. I mean, he's a new father, all that. Like, you know, he's going to want to do what's best for him and his family. And, you know, as he should, he's earned that right to explore all that.

But, yeah, I do think like if you're the mirrors, you need to get on this as soon as possible. Yeah. No reason to wait around and then be left, you know, at the altar. Like, you can't be in a situation where, like, your plan is Carlos Santana. And then at the last minute, that gets ripped away. And you're like, oh, well, also, you shouldn't be in a plan. You shouldn't have a plan where Carlos Santana is the key to your entire plan. but you know we saw this happen last year and the Mariners didn't pivot well after that happened well and the thing too is like you want to try and get this done before Pete Alonzo signs but also is Nailor going to want to sign before Pita Lanzo signs

I don't think anybody reasonably thinks that Nailer is going to get Pete Alonzo money so I don't know I don't think it's because of that but I do think it's like all right well now Alonzo's off the board Now I'm the, you know, the next best guy at this position. Like, maybe, but maybe. I don't know. Like it's, I don't know, Nailer that well. He's only been here for a couple months. So I don't really, and I don't know if you know this or not. He doesn't like to let people in.

Like he's a very private person. Yeah. So it's tough to, to really know, like have good feel for whether or not Nailer. I mean, he said all the right things. Everybody seems to imply that he likes it here. Yeah. But you just don't know. You don't know. And like he seems to like hitting at this ballpark. It appears he was not lying about that. So, you know, we'll see. I think the Mariners certainly have a major advantage over everybody else in these negotiations.

So that's good. We talked about this, you know, when they acquired him, like, even if the Mariners hadn't gotten Josh Naylor, we assumed he was going to be very high on their, on their big board for free agents, on their wish list. And now they've had him for a couple months. They know he works in the clubhouse. They've said as much. They've said that he's their priority.

So you really, really hope they get this one done. I don't have a great feel for how the market's going to go this year because of the lockout, how many teams are going to be less willing to spend because they're quote unquote worried about not having, you know, not making money in 2027 or the TV deal, like all the excuses that will be used. Will that apply to the Mariners? It has in the past. But I do think Naylor is probably going to get somewhere in that $18 to $20 million range for three to four years. I think the shorter the deal, the bigger the AAV.

And if the Mariners, I think if the Mariners were willing to go five years, they get this done pretty quick. But I don't think they're going to be willing to go five. And I don't really blame them for that. But I expect them to be a very competitive offer. And I would say if I was handicapping it today, I would say the Mariners have like a 60% chance to resign Naylor. I have a hard time seeing him not be in a marriage uniform. 2026 and beyond. I'll say that for whatever that's worth, which isn't a ton.

But like, I think most Mariner fans, it might be more devastating to them. If Naylor was wearing a different uniform next year, then, you know, game seven. Like talk about like Mariner fans and they embrace guys fast. They've really embraced Josh Naylor. Well, it's that it's also like, you know it works. You know, he works in the ballpark. Like, you know, once you identify. of those guys and there haven't been too many of those guys that have come through here.

Like you kind of need to hold on to them as much as you can. So yeah, it would, it would, it would, it would hurt. Like, it would, it would hurt a lot if they weren't able to get this done. But plus I, I think they'll get it done. I do, I do think they will, I do think they will get it done. Let's get it done early though. So we don't have this hanging over our heads the entire winter. And also, just to put this out there, if,

not Josh Naler. What's the plan at first base? God. Yeah. You're the Luke Rayleigh thing again? Giving Luis to rise $15 million bucks.

Yeah. Even though he's only worth like five. Just get this done. Yeah. Exactly. All right. Well, that's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the lockdown era's podcast for

Colby Patnode. I'm Ted and Gazzal. Be sure. Give us a follow. on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Tadine Gzalus and Colby at CPAT11. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLV Colby and the show at Lockdown Mariners.

You can also find us on Instagram at Lockdown Mariners. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time. Peace.