Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Seattle Mariners Second Half Reasons For Optimism and Pessimism | Mailbag

Episode Date: July 14, 2026

Ty and Colby dive into the mailbag and answer your Mariners questions, including what their reasons for pessimism and optimism are for the second half and more. Click to learn more about the Everydayer Club! Join the Ahoy, Sailors Discord server! Check out our Patreon! Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11 Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolby Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! Amazon This Back To School Season, spend less on your kids, with Amazon. With Amazon’s low Back To School Prices, just spend less on your kids. Because every dollar you don’t spend on them, is a dollar you haven’t spent on them.    KALSHI For a limited time, download the Kalshi app and use code LOCKEDON to get ten dollars when you trade ten. Kalshi. Trade on anything. Gametime Today's episode is brought to you by Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase. Terms and conditions apply. FanDuel Today's episode is brought to you by FanDuel. From the opening whistle to the final kick, Let There Be Goals on FanDuel. Visit https://FANDUEL.COM to get started now.   FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's show, we'll tell you what makes us both optimistic and pessimistic going into the second half of the Mariners season. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Oh, hoi, sailors, it is Tuesday, July 14th, 2026. My name is Tadding Gazzalas, and I'm joined as always by my co-coast, Colby Patnode. This episode is brought to you by Kalshi for a limited time, download the, Cali app and use the promo code locked on.

That's LOC, KED, ON to get $10 when you trade 10. KALSH, trade on anything. It's time to open up the mailbag and answer your mayor's questions, starting with this one from Jeff, who wants to know, what is the new top 30 prospects list going to look like after the draft? I don't know, because we're not going to do it until after the deadline, and obviously things could significantly change once the deadline comes and goes. But of the 50 or so minutes that we talked about the draft,

on yesterday's show, Colby, we didn't really talk about where some of these guys are ultimately going to at least roughly slot in to our top 30 when we do that here in the next couple of weeks. So I did want to pick this question out and talk about that a little bit here. Yeah, I mean, like you said, it doesn't make a ton of sense to kind of do the re-ranks now because the Mariners could trade a lot of these guys. also were only two or three days removed from the draft. And quite frankly, I only recognize like two names after round three. So yeah, we need to learn more about these guys before we properly slot them. And thankfully, it sounds like we're going to have Joe back on on Friday to tell us a little bit about this class. Yeah, Joe Doyle of overslaw, baseball will be joining us on Friday.

Right. And so there's that. There's also the possibility, kind of sad, but. It's true. There's also a decent possibility that there are new players acquired that end up on our top 30 prospect list because this Mariner team is two bad weeks away from selling, probably somewhat aggressively at the deadline this year. So, yeah, it doesn't make a ton of sense to do it right now just because, you know, it's going to change so much. And so, like, we could rank the top 30 now, but when numbers 7, 11, you know, 25 are all traded, and then we have to redo the list in a couple weeks anyway.

So, yeah, we always wait until after the draft. But, yeah, I can tell you, you know, just very quick, you know, kind of on my running list that I keep going all year. I've added a few guys from this draft class, kicked off a few. And it looks like right now, just kind of eyeballing it. I have seven to eight of the draft class in my top 30. And that number could go up or down, depending on what we learn over the next few days. and depending on what kind of information Joe can give us.

But, you know, hey, look, we're not prospect guys in general, like more so than the average fans, certainly. But we're certainly not on the same level as like Joe and, you know, people who actually could tell you things about this. So our prospect list are more about fun and just kind of like how we like the players in general. And so we're still trying to learn about these players a little bit. So no prospect list yet, but I do have the top two picks currently right now are sitting inside my top 10 Mariners prospects. I think I have four or five of them in the top 25 and then a couple right there at the end.

So yeah, it's, you know, and some of them are like the Eric Gian and the white queens of the world. And then there's obviously a couple more. It's really that, you know, that everybody after Henry Ford, I just, need more information on before I definitively say they're going to be in the top 30. But yeah, I feel pretty confident there's going to be at least six to eight of these guys in the new top 30. And that's before any trades get made one way or another. So we can't really answer that question right now.

Check back. I don't know, probably the second week of August because, you know, the first week of August tie is going to be here. And I don't know, we're going to, or maybe we pre-record that episode so that tie can go ride the ferry boats one day. I don't know. But yeah, it's going to be early August when we actually released the top 30 because by then you're pretty much locked in. We should have enough info on these guys, new guys or the guys who are left that, you know, we can replace them. So yeah, I would say about at most half of the draft class is going to be in the top 30, but I would say more than likely

it's going to end up being six to eight. Maybe a ninth or, my ninth and tenth and maybe sneak in there. But it's pretty good year for the Mariners Farm System. And then there are a lot of guys in-house. who have really improved their stock this year. So it'll be interesting to see where the Steinsma's and the Torex and all these guys kind of line up relative to the new draftees. But yeah, I would say minimum six probably of this draft in the top 30. And I think maybe up to 10, depending on if there are trades, it could be more than 10, I guess.

But yeah, it's a solid draft class. I don't think that there's going to be any major shakeups like there was last year when he drafted Kate Anderson, obviously. You have the number three pick versus the number 24 pick. It changes quite a bit. Right, right.

I am interested to see if you and I differ on who our number one is between spoiler alert, Anderson and Sloan. But we'll see. We'll save that for a discussion. Okay. That's right.

Michael Orois and stand up. Okay. But yeah, I have Reese and Brown in my top 10. I feel confident that that's not going to change at all. No matter what happens here in the next couple of weeks. Ford and Nathan Taylor probably going to be in like the 11 to 15 range.

And then Lucas, Yost, Wyn, Ecclman, Whalen, Gian, Queen, Marshburn. At least a few of those guys are probably going to be somewhere in the top 30. Maybe even a couple of them will make it into the top 20. I have a rough draft. of a top 30 right now. And I have, let's see here, I have Reese Brown.

I think I have seven of those guys in there right now. Sounds about right. But hey, you know what? I really like that 19th round pick. So maybe I find a way to sneak him into that. Oh, Michael Petit.

Yes, because he takes daddy hacks and his last name is Petit. I just find that to be hilarious. Very funny. But also pretty interesting profile. And I tell you what, if they've gotten Conor Shoes done, he probably would have, you know, flirted with that top 10.

I really like that guy and keep him in the back of your mind for next year when he's a junior and he has a lot less leverage. But yeah, I think, yeah, you said seven. I think I have eight, but that could go up or down. I would say safe bet is at least six of the new guys will be in our top 30. Yeah, and there's a couple of guys that are kind of like on the friends that I want to learn more about. and depending on what I learned, they might crack the top 30 when it's all sudden done. So we'll see.

All right. We will answer more of your questions in just a moment, but first a reminder of this episode of Locktime Airs podcast is brought to you by Calci. And indeed, baseball season is here and now you can trade every game and more on Calci. Right now, Seattle is trading at 17% to win the pennant, meaning a $100 trade pays out $590 if they do it. On Calci, you're trading against peers.

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soan once now are the mariners the most disappointing team relative to expectations in major league baseball this year no because i mean the blue jays were literally like a foot away from winning the world series not even a year ago and they're worse than you are right now. They're in last place. Yeah. Yeah, pretty definitively. They have a far worse chance of actually making the playoffs than you do as well. Pretty definitively, the Blue Jays are without question. Way more disappointed than the Mariners.

Now, the Mariners are probably top five. Don't get me wrong. Like, they've been very disappointing, but. Yeah, the Mariners might be top two. Honestly, they might be second. Yeah, but like the Blue Jays are still definitively ahead of the Mariners in the disappointment column. But yeah, the Mariners definitely top five and probably the second number two if we're being honest.

Yeah. Red Sox as well, even though they're starting to turn things around. Detroit. Detroit, for sure. Yeah. Orioles. A lot of people were hoping that the Orioles would bounce back. And, you know, last year was just kind of a weird down year for them. And they'd get back on the trajectory that they were on, especially after adding guys like Pete Alonzo in the offseason.

But that hasn't happened. San Diego. Yeah, San Diego. go. Yeah. They're 14 pack. Yeah, I'd say Blue Jays with a bullet and then Mariner's probably number two and then Red Sox, Tigers, Audrey's just all kind of like in that mix right now behind them.

Yeah. I think that's probably about right. Brian wants to know. Hopefully the All-Star break helps us hit the reset button. Let's hear your most optimistic and pessimistic outlook for the second half, only a game and a half out of first place in the AOS. I think a lot of the reasons to be optimistic kind of go hand in hand with the reasons to be pessimistic. Right.

I think a big reason to be optimistic is like Cal Raleigh can't be this bad. Right. But also we have half a season worth of data that says that he is this bad this year. You know, and it's like, well, they should get healthy. But also this entire season has been riddled with injury. So what, you know, how confident should you be in their ability to stay healthy over the last couple of months of the season? You know, hopefully they're able to get Ulio back, you know, hopefully on Friday. You know, hopefully they're able to get Brennan Donovan back sometime and, you know, by like mid-August or so.

I don't know. I don't know how long he's going to be on his rehab assignment whenever that finally kicks off. You know, hopefully they're able to get all of these guys together in the same lineup. up that also kind of hinges on what they do over the next couple weeks and you know if they're actually going to be in a position where it makes sense for them to buy and really go after this thing um you know to me the biggest uh moment of the entire season is coming up right after the all-star break for the marries they're playing the giants and the reds at home those are two very bad teams mediocre to bad teams. I should say the Reds are okay.

You need to go at least four and two in those series because after that you go on a road trip to Texas and then you're playing the Dodgers in L.A. And then you only have one more series after that before the deadline.

Yeah, the next 13 games are critically important to the Mariners and obviously again you play two bad teams but you're going to have to beat Webb in Robbie Ray and probably Hunter Green. To, you know, so, but everybody else has found a way to beat those guys, you know, and so you need to find a way to do it.

And then, yeah, you have the rare four game wraparound series against the Rangers, and you got to go to California, play the, you know, best team of baseball. So, yeah, that, that, that's why those, these next six are really, really important. And even obviously the four game series after that against the Rangers, you probably need to at least split that. series. But yeah, I mean, like the optimistic route is that they win those first three series. You know, they go seven and three out of the break. And, and, you know, they kind of put some distance between them and the Rangers by virtue of their, you know, winning a four game series against them. And then, you know, kind of regardless of what happens against the Dodgers, you're going to be above 500. And you're going to be buyers, certainly, at the deadline. And so, you know, it really is the next 13 games are probably going to determine the Mariners. there's direction of things and where they go and what's reasonable to expect from them. So it's huge.

And so like Ty said, the reasons for optimism is, is that, well, they get healthier. They certainly can be a lot better without any major acquisitions at the deadline. But the pessimistic route is they haven't been healthy all year. Why should I believe that they could get healthy? And, you know, the deadline is kind of works both ways because you could say, well, hey, look, the deadline's coming. Jerry and Justin are very aggressive at the. the deadline every year. And there's very few teams, if any, that are as well positioned to

make these types of trade, any type of trade. They could do buyer for buyer. They could, prospect for major leaguer. They could, they could do a lot. They have a lot of options to them. And then the pessimistic route is like, yeah, but like there are no sellers. So you're kind of who you're going to buy from if nobody's selling them. Like the clear sellers, like there aren't a lot of pieces that line up with, like what you need. Right. So, yeah, again, it is, it's, it's two sides of the same coin, right? Optimism and pessimism. So, yeah, I think the optimistic outlook would be like, look, they played terrible baseball.

They haven't had a, you know, a really cohesive opening day looking lineup since May. Their best players been, you know, one of the worst players in baseball this year. That probably isn't going to continue for the entire season, blah, blah, blah. But, you know, the pessimism is that we're 90, what, 96 games, whatever, 95 games. into the season and you are who you are. And who you are has been painfully mediocre. But the optimistic outlook is like, so is the rest of the American League. So yeah, they really, they really are two sides of the same coin here.

But I think, you know, health is a big thing that you can hopefully be optimistic about and the fact that this team has proven over and over again that like very few teams are as good at the trade deadline as the Seattle Mariners. but again, obviously there's the pessimistic spin on both of those sides of optimism. So, you know. Yeah. Yeah, the optimistic outlook here is if you were going to have this kind of season, this was the year to do it, right? Because of just how weak the American League is. You're still very much in it.

Everything that you set out to accomplish this season, you know, before the season began, is still very much within your reach. And look, you have, you know, the, most valuable starting rotation in all baseball by F4. It's a top five rotation in a lot of different categories. Obviously, if you get that rotation into the playoffs, you have a shot to win any series that you play in just because of how good your rotation is and has been.

Julio has obviously historically been a second half player. Again, Cal Raleigh cannot be this bad, right? It just, he cannot. And like we have seen some solid things. things. I wouldn't say that it's been great, but, you know, we've seen some, some improvements here and there from Cal over the last few games. You know, Josh Naylor, hopefully he can eventually, you know, figure things out. Obviously, JP's been in a little bit of a funk, but I thought he had a better road trip. You know, Cole Young has been awesome. Randy Rose Raina's

been awesome at the plate. You know, and then hopefully you get Brendan Donovan back. And that's a huge piece. That obviously shouldn't be overlooked. If you are able to get Donovan back and he's able to stay healthy and he's able to contribute both at the plate and also give you some of that versatility you were hoping to add defensively as well, that helps you a lot. And that makes you very flexible in terms of what you can add at the deadline as well. It's just the issue with the deadline is again, what are you getting? Who are you getting? Who is even available to get? Right. Exactly. So we'll see. But yeah, there's absolutely reasons to be optimistic about this thing. but also, again, those reasons to be optimistic,

kind of go hand in hand with the reasons to be pessimistic as well. All right, we will wrap things up with a couple more of your questions in just a moment. But first a reminder, this episode of the longtime era's podcast is brought to you by Nutraful. Baseball players are known for their routines, whether it's a lucky jersey, a pregame ritual, or sticking to the same preparation every day, consistency matters. And when it comes to hair thinning,

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Locked on MLB. And you're listening to the Locked on Mariner's podcast, part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. As always, if you want to hear from me and Colby of Moore and help support the show, we have a Patreon.

It's called Control the Zone. And on there we talk Mariners, Seahawks, all that good stuff. For more information, go to patreon.com, forward slash Control the Zone. Link in the description of this episode. Let's get back into your questions here

as we open up the mailbag. Klotz of Lovicus wants to know, does it seem like the Dan Wilson, in the era features aside from the end game management issues, less adjustment to current performance and a lack of benching for mistakes. Cal for example was in the number two spot for much

of the first half of the season. Players have not been benched for lack of hustle Cough, Randy Cough. Castillo has not been shifted to the bullpen when Hancock was much better. It's not a big change from the service era or hasn't always been like this. In terms of benching, no, Scott

never really ever benched guys. I can't remember a time that Scott Did he bench Robbie at one point? Or was that Lloyd or not? I feel like maybe that happened. I don't know. I have like a vague like memory of Robbie getting bench. I don't remember Scott ever pulling somebody in the middle of a game.

Yeah. After they displayed like a, you know, a lack of hustle or anything like that. I don't remember Scott ever doing that. Yeah. Lineup changes. I could be wrong on this. I do feel like lineup changes were more frequent from Scott.

than they have been with Dan. Dan more so has stayed the course and has really trusted his guys to just kind of be who they are, you know, just figured it out. Dan's big on grace, you know, and so like, hey, you make a mistake. Well, I don't want to be seen as punishing you when you make an honest mistake. So I'm just going to keep doing the same thing over and over and over again until it just becomes literally unbearable. And then I'm still going to do it for like another three weeks before I finally move Cal down in the lineup. And then, well, that's only going to last, you know, until Julio gets hurt. And then. oh, my hands are tied. What am I going to do? I have to pivot. So, yeah, you know, the, to me,

the Dan Wilson features, um, are, uh, you know, not all that dissimilar from Scott, at least like on the field. Now,

Scott was much more willing to do the new school bullpen approach, especially towards the end of his tenure where it was just, a best pitcher in the highest leverage spot, let's go. But, you know, Scott would also play that stupid game where he'd leave his starter in, try to get an extra out or two out of him, and then lose the game. And Dan does that. Scott, you know, platoon guys and rode with them quite a bit, even when they clearly weren't working. So that's also very familiar. And again, part of this, a good chunk of this is like the front office lays out.

It's a front office directive. Yeah. about platoons and stuff like that. So really the only like the huge difference, A, Dan Wilson is just not, you know, as emotional,

outwardly emotional as Scott. Like Scott would get ejected. Maybe would be the better word. Scott, well, like Scott would get like when he got, when his temper flared up, who he could,

he could, you know, go out there with the best of them. Yeah. Dan Wilson never seems to have a temper, honestly. And, and Dan,

and Dan has picked, a couple of weird times to actually show some fire and show some emotion. There was a where there's no impact. Yeah, there was a game last year where like, you know, they had been screwed over on so many calls. Like I think like early on in the season last year, if I remember correctly. And like there were so many times where he could have gone out there

and given an umpire what for and he didn't. And then there was a there was a call that was actually the right call. And then he, that was the time that he picked to go out there. and you know light them up and i was just like so yeah so like he doesn't show a lot of emotion and when he does he kind of picks weird times to do it indeed so yeah it's just kind of one of those things like the in game management stuff it's mostly the bullpen where scott was much more new school and and dan is much more like i want guys to know what inning they're going to come in the game

at and and that's obviously stupid uh but that is obviously also some signed off on by the front office. So, like, it's kind of one of those things, like, the endgame stuff, you can't always separate them. But there are times where I think, like, a manager has to have feel for, like, the situation and, like, when to pivot. And, you know, this was a criticism I had of Scott as well. Like, not great improv guys.

Like, oh, this didn't go exactly the way we wanted it to exactly the way we scripted it. I need to make a change here. And they react too late often. Our final question of the day comes from code mode, who wants to know is a time to bring Ryan Bliss back up to the majors. What would his role look like,

platoon with Colt Emerson against the lefties, or would you try to find a way to play him every day? Ryan Bliss has been awesome lately. He's been on a heater. He has two, three, four, five, he has

six three plus hit games since the end of June. Now, obviously, the last series that he played in where he had three plus hits and four of the five, six games that they played was in Las Vegas

where the ball just flies and flies and flies and flies. There's a billion hits and there's a billion homers and all that. Still, he's been really good. He's had a really good approach as of late. He got back into the swing of things here after being on the injured list for a little while on June 16th.

And since June 16th, He is slashing, let me bring up the advanced numbers here, he is slashing 417, 459, 677. So 182 WRC Plus. Again, yeah, it's the PCL, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And he's been around for a while, but. WRC plus is league adjusted. So even with the, the PCL being a band box, he's been 82% better than the rest of that bandbox. Yeah, yeah, exactly.

that's yeah like I don't care what league you play in a 182 WRC plus is massive yeah so to answer your question yes it's time for him to get another shot here because you're rostering weston wilson wilson and buddy kennedy right now also miles master bony and miles master bony which that's probably going to be the course more outfield willio gets gets back but still like let's be serious here for a second yeah you absolutely have opportunities to give to ryan bliss right now and i think he's earned them yeah plus you know plus you know he's a really good athlete you don't have much athleticism on your bench right now he's got he's got power like he's got surprising pop for his size he's a good runner he can steal some bases for you and he's added some versatility he's played a lot of shortstop in tacoma he's played some third base he's played second base and he's even gotten a starter two in centerfield yeah uh so there's more versatility there and again no i don't try to get him in the lineup every day I don't think he's that guy.

But, you know, platoon him with Colt Emerson. Sure. But, you know, Cole Young has played every single game this year. Giving him a day off against the tough left, he would not be the worst thing in the world. Yeah. So, yeah, because he can play second, because he could play a little short, because he can play third. Again, he's not going to be great at any of those spots. Probably second.

He'll be, you know, above average at. But there's still arm strength limitations and all that. Yeah, he deserves to be up, not in an everyday role. certainly would bring more value than Buddy Kennedy, who I know had a nice game on Sunday, but who cares? More value than Buddy Kennedy. And once you get Julio back,

he has more value than Miles Master Boney because Bliss is a right-handed hitter, and you could use some more of those guys on your bench. And again, late game, pinch runner, versatility, got some power, he can run into one. Like, yeah, Ryan Bliss deserves to be on this roster right now. You know, does he deserve to be on it more than Weston Wilson? I mean, I could see why the Mariners are intrigued by Wilson.

He does have a nice track record of hitting left-handed pitching, and he also does have some of the same versatility and better runner than I thought when the Mariners acquired him. Unless he's at second and the ball is set to short stuff. I didn't say he was a smart page runner, just that he's faster than I thought. Sure. So, yeah, like Master Boni will be the move. When Donovan comes back, whenever that is, or if they acquire another infielder,

would I be upset if they picked Wilson over Bliss? as things stand right now, no, but also Bliss might be better than Wilson now. So he definitely deserves to be on the major league roster, get some opportunities, pick your spots for him a little bit, don't ask him to, you know, not swing the bat for a week and then ask him to get a bunt down against Josh Hader in the ninth. Like, let's not do that. But, yeah, I do think he definitely deserves to be up at the big league level. He's earned it.

And he is one of your 13 best position players, healthy position players in the org right now. So make it happen. All right. That is going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marrars podcast. Part of the Lockdown Podcast network, your team every day for Colby Patnode. I'm Tading Azalus. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L.O underscore Mariners. You can follow me at C-Pat-E-T-1-1. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at MLB-Colby in the show at Lockdown Mariners. You can also find us on Instagram and TikTok at Lockdown Mariners. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time. Peace.