Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Should the Seattle Mariners Trade a TOP PROSPECT For Stephen Vogt?! | Mailbag Monday

Episode Date: October 5, 2026

It's Mailbag Monday! Ty and Colby answer your Mariners questions, including what they'd be willing to trade the Guardians for manager Stephen Vogt.Check out our merch store!Check out our Patreon!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_MarinersFollow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolbySupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!IndeedListeners of this show get a $75 Sponsored Job Credit to help give your job the premium placement it deserves at http://Indeed.com/podcast.Gameday Mens HealthGameday Men’s Health is a real, in-person men’s health clinic that looks at the full picture  before developing a treatment plan. Book your complimentary test and consult at https://join.gamedaymenshealth.com/reasons_to_choose_gameday-1201?utm_source=lockedon&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=MLB&utm_network=lockedon&utm_adgroup=corp&ghl_tag=national,corpKALSHIFor a limited time, Download Kalshi and use code Locked On to get $25 when you trade $25. Kalshi. Trade what’s next.  OdooGreat organizations win because operations matter. And that’s why you should get Odoo. Try for free today at https://Odoo.com/lockedon.GametimeToday's episode is brought to you by Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase. Terms and conditions apply.FanDuelThis season, FanDuel is making the excitement go beyond what happens on the field with the all-new FanDuel Rewards Club, featuring exclusive offers, surprises, and more. Every week, check the FanDuel app to see what’s waiting for you or visit https://FANDUEL.COM to get started. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

What would a trade for Guardians manager Stephen Vote look like? Let's talk about it. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors. It is Monday, October 5th, 2026.

My name is Tedding Azales, and I'm joined as always by my co-host, Colby Patneau. This episode is brought to you by Fanduel. Make this your most rewarding season ever with Fandual Rewards Club. every week. Check the Fanduil app to see what's waiting for you. On today's show, we're going to open up the mailbag and answer your Mariners questions, starting with Claude Tloficus, who wants to know?

If Stephen Vote was available, who would you trade for them? Top 10 prospect, 10 through 20, a Lazaro Montas, Corbyn Dickerson, or Brock Rodden. I think we need to start by looking at the three managerial trades that have happened this century. There's only three. And the last one was 14 years ago. So who knows what a managerial trade would look like in 2026. But the last one was John Farrell from the Toronto Blue Jays to the Boston Red Sox.

And that netted the Blue Jays, Mike Avilis. We had been in the league for four or five years at that point. Coming off of a really good defensive year, pretty mediocre offensively. I think he was worth one and a half wins by Fangraph standards that season. So that really wasn't a lot. Now, obviously, John Farrell, in a bit of a different situation than Stephen Vote. Stephen Vote has been one of the most accomplished managers in the entire game the last few years since he took over in Cleveland. One yet another division this year.

And who knows how deep of a run he and his team are going to make here in October. Obviously, they're off to a one-nothing. deficit in the ALDS, but we'll see. So by the time that, you know, voting, the guardians are eliminated, the Mariners very well might be so deep into their process that they're going to go elsewhere, no matter what. And then, I don't think this is going to happen, but that's a much deeper conversation than you're asking to have right now. And then, yeah, what would I be willing to trade for Stephen vote?

Not a lot. because again look at other manager trades obviously vote far more accomplished than a John Farrell but still like Mike Avelis was it and I think like if Stephen Vote goes to the Guardians and he's like

hey I want to go home because he lives in Washington during the off season I want to go home I want to go manage the Mariners if he makes that abundantly clear to them I think at a certain point Cleveland just has to go okay. Right? Yeah.

So I don't think you would have to trade a Laza Romantus. I wouldn't. Even if I, you know, if that's what it took, like I just, I wouldn't.

I wouldn't trade anyone in the top 10. I wouldn't trade Felning Seleson. I wouldn't trade Luke Stevenson. I wouldn't trade Bosset Smith even. My list would probably start with, yeah, like Corbyn Dickerson.

At best. And again, It doesn't necessarily have to be a prospect. It could be, you know, a player on your major league roster. Maybe it's Gabe Spire. Maybe it's Edward Bizarro. Whatever. You know.

But, yeah, I wouldn't trade a top prospect for him. And I don't think you would have to if this actually became a real possibility. Yeah. I mean, again, keep in mind you can't technically trade for a manager. You have to trade for a player. and then the team can let the manager out of his contract. Wink, wink, nudge, nudge. Right.

It is like, look at the only example we have in the history of this franchise when they traded Lou Pinella to Tampa Bay for Randy Wynn. It's not technically what happened. They traded, was Antonio Perez, I believe was his name, uh,

to the Tampa Bay raise for Randy Wynn. And then they let Lou Pinella, you know, get out of his contract so he can sign with Tampa. Like so. And the Farrell deal, the Red Sox got a reliever. Right.

So again, it is. It is like a, like, for all purposes, for all like realism, you are trading a manager, but technically you're not. So you'd have to get a player back from Cleveland too. So is that player, Stephen Kwan, who the guardians are not going to pay $12 million to for one year? Is it, you know, Matt Vesta, a reliever who could actually help you this year? Or is it just some, you know, 25 year old and double A?

So keep that in mind. Like this could drastically change the conversation. if you're actually getting like a real player, then maybe you are interested in trading like a top-ish prospect. But in general, no, I'm not trading really anything for Stephen Vogue. I think the more prudent thing to do would be to go out and try and find the next Stephen Vogue and then use your prospect capital, your trade capital, on actual players who make your roster because this is a team that they're not going to spend a ton of money in free agency.

I think we know that. So you're going to have to trade to get these pieces. And you have a front office who's on the hot seat. They're going to want those assets to go towards fixing the major league roster more so than they are to fixing the bench and all that, meaning like the field staff. So yeah, I just, I wouldn't trade much. I would much rather keep that, keep that ammo to trade for like actual players who can help me. And then I'll go and I'll try and find, you know, a manager who maybe he's not as good as Vogue. but like can be a significant upgrade over Dan Wilson still and I can keep all my players and trade them for actual players who are actually going to help me on the field.

So I wouldn't trade much for Vogue. Again, like if Kwan's involved, maybe we could talk then, like, but I'm just, I'm not trading, you know, I'm not going to trade much of anything to get Stephen Vogue because I would just rather trade those players for players and hire the manager. Yeah. you know, maybe it's that guy. Maybe it's Lanieres. I don't know, but I think that's a better way to go.

Yeah. Again, if it's like a Brock Rodden or, sure, yeah. I mean, I like Corbin Dickerson a lot, but I can talk myself

into trading Corbyn Dickerson for Stephen vote. Like, that's fine. Yeah, I'd be like, okay. Yeah.

Like, if it's one of those guys, sure. But yeah, if we're talking about like actual, like a dude in my farm system, no. If it's a guy who can headline

a, deal for an everyday player. No, I'm not trading that guy for a manager. Or is like a real second piece and a trade for for a guy like that. Yeah. Like multiple years of a major league. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's where I'm out as well.

But yeah, if it's like a Brock Roddenner or whatever, it's just like, hey, throw us a bone here. Sure. Yeah, that's fine. If it's like Gabe Spire even or Bizarro, it's like, fine, I guess. Like, I wouldn't hate it. But it just now, I'm not giving up like real substantial value for a manager. I'm just going to hire one and use that, use my resources on the players, not on the bench or the field staff. Next question here comes from Colin who wants to know using MLB trade deadlines are predictions.

And with the money coming off the books, plus some easy non-tenders, the Mariners will have around 30-ish million dollars to spend without quote unquote raising payroll. Will we actually see some legit free agent activity from this front office or will ownership be who they've been? Always hammer the ladder. Always. If we assume that they are going to spend roughly what they did this year at least, right? And I did do the math on the payroll and the MLB trade rumors are projections were roughly in line with what I was expecting. them to be a little bit more here, a little bit less there. But in the end, it all came out to, yeah, I came up with about 130 million to 135 million,

maybe 128, depending on who they tender and who they don't tender, because there are some legitimate questions here about who they might not tender, mostly Luke Rayleigh. So, yeah, anyways, I think, regardless of that, if we accept everything in that statement, that they it's going to be about 1.30 to start. It's going to be about 30, 35 million dollars of payroll to get back to where they were this year. Will the Mariners go out and spend significantly on free agents? No. Not.

I don't think they're going to go out and spend like on like one free. Like they're not going to get $25 million to anybody. Yeah. I think you see that money start to add up in smaller deals and guys that they bring in via trade. Now the interesting thing here though is like if they also trade George Kirby, who is projected to make what what was his MLB TR projection 9 10 million bucks yeah so like that's a pretty significant chunk that you would take off that number as well remember a couple years ago they were trying to get Cody Bellinger from the Cubs maybe this and I don't know who

this guy would be this year I haven't done enough research on that but maybe match yeah I yeah I don't know if there actually is a guy um that's like just that's like got a year left who's making like 25 million bucks or whatever. Maybe this is like actually the offseason that they do trade for a guy like that, though. Yeah. I think that's, uh,

I think that's a possibility. I just think that like if they spend the $30 million, I think it'll be broken up into like four different guys. Um, and, and so again, we'll see like you said, they could trade George Kirby to open up some more money depending on who they trade

him for or what they trade him for. they could, you know, non-tender Luke Rayleigh and that would save about three million bucks. They could trade, you know, Matt Brash and that would only save like two million bucks. But like still, like they can expand or, you know, they could extend Logan Gilbert and lower his number this year and add, you know, payroll that way, payroll flexibility that way. So yeah, the payroll is going to be a little bit fluid here. But, yeah, assuming they have about $30 million to spend, which I think is a fair estimate, give or take. I would be pretty surprised in like a huge chunk of that, like more than half of that went to one player. So I think they will make moves.

I think it'll be a fairly aggressive offseason. I just think that they're going to be more, I don't want to say bulk because that is kind of a negative connotation. But they're not going to be like, well, we just got Raphael Devers. We're done for the winter. You know, like, no, they're going to look to add four or five pieces, I think. All right. Coming up, we will answer more of your questions, but first, a reminder of this episode of the long-time-airous podcast is brought to you by Fanduel and Odu. Welcome to your most rewarding NFL season ever, only on Fanduel.

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And that's true in sports just like it is in business. You know, when we're talking about the Mariners, we talk about how they have the same philosophy at the majors as they do all the way down at the lower levels of the miners. Even with all these different factions, the organization itself is one. They have a vision, they stick to it, and last season showed us what's possible when everyone is working from the same playbook.

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And also thank you for making Lockdown the number one sports podcast network. If you enjoy the show, give this episode a like and hit the subscribe button if you're watching on YouTube or if you're listening on your favorite podcast platform, leave us a five-star review. It only takes a few seconds and really helps us out. Let's get back into your questions here on Mailbag Monday. NWFXC wants to know. I know the namesake control the zone was a mantra for the Mariners for years.

Is this the player development piece that DePoto was referencing during his presser that gets deviated from upon making the majors? I think it's a big part of it because it's still something that they really hammer home to their prospects, control the zone, dominate the zone especially. And this is coming from people that I've talked to that are in the Mariners farm system currently. Like that's still very much something that they are hammering home with their young players. But clearly that is getting lost. You can just look at the numbers. That is clearly getting lost at the major league level, especially this year it got lost in a pretty big way at the major league level.

They had the second lowest in zone contact rate of any team in Major League Baseball this year. They had the seventh highest strikeout rate. So yeah, they were not controlling the zone. They were not dominating the zone specifically on the offensive end. And then when you listen to Jerry talk about the. second half pitching struggles as well. That's also very much a control zone, dominate the zone issue, you know, when he was specifically talking about their two strike execution.

So, yeah, that's a big part of it. I don't think it's the only thing that he was referencing, but I do think that's a big part. Yeah, I think, you know, a pretty big part of the reference is like, hey, you know, down in the farm system, we preach playing clean baseball and, you know, always knowing what to do and and being prepared and, you know, doing all the little things, which we know that they do talk about a lot down there. I mean, they give awards for stuff like that. And that just was not present on the major league team whatsoever this year.

So it's probably a lot of things. The control of zone thing is something that they've dialed back a little bit in that, like, they haven't like outwardly gone out. But they still have like to dominate the zone award and all that for their minor leaguers. So it's always going to be an important part of what they do. But yeah, they have dialed that back a little bit here. But it did seem like this year there was just a lack of identity at the plate. Like they kind of started out being ultra conservative at the plate. And then they got really aggressive in the middle of the year.

And then they kind of like tried to do this whole thing where they were going back and forth. And they talked, I mean, Dom Kanzone talked about this in the middle of the year. Like, yeah, you know, we're just not really. We just don't seem to have a cohesive, you know, thought process on how to, you know, the best way to hit and all of that. So I'm sure that's a huge part of it because that's just a huge part of the Mariners and who they want to identify as as a team. So, yeah, I'm sure that's a huge part of it.

How much of it is that? Like, is it 90% that? Is it 50% of that? Is it 25% that? I don't know. We probably won't know. But, yeah, I think it's fair to say that that mantra was more ignored at the major league level than it ever has been.

before and I think that's part of the reason why Dan and Siteser and I mean I know Edgar's technically not fired but I think we also know he's definitely not you know the everyday hitting instructor or anything like that he's going to have a different role this year so I think that's why you're seeing pretty much the entire you know offensive side of the staff the position player side of the coaching staff that's why they're all gone all right shenay wants to know with the mariners not being in the playoffs are there things that the mariner's can learn from the teams in the playoffs. I wouldn't say learn necessarily,

but maybe the playoffs can put things into perspective for the Mariners. And what I mean by that is that while defense and making things happen on the base pass and all the things that the Mariners were utterly terrible at this year are incredibly important in October and the Mariners absolutely need to get better

in those departments this winter, they shouldn't lose sight they shouldn't overcorrect and get too far away from the formula that ultimately got them as far as it did in 2025 because that's what ultimately reigns supreme in October and that's dominating with your pitching and hitting the timely home run so you still want to build a roster that is capable of doing that with consistency once you get to October. But obviously, again, like they need to address all those other things as well.

But that's ultimately how you win in October. That's the proven method to winning with any sort of consistency and making the deep runs in October. Yeah. I mean, you just look at the games that we've watched. The Yankees or the Raes literally just beat the Yankees with a solo home run and elite pitching,

like one-nothing win in the playoffs. Like those games are, fairly common. The low-scoring games are kind of the norm. I think across the entire league in the playoffs this year, players are hitting sub-200. Like, you're just facing really good pitchers and managers are more aggressive with their best bullpen arms and you're not seeing a starter three times

through all that often. So, yeah, you're really are facing the best pitching in the world. And so it's really hard to string together a bunch of hits. And you can do it every once in a while. And, you know, the Brewers won a game. last night doing that against Mason Miller of all people. But they also won game one by hitting a home run in the seventh. They go ahead, home run in the seventh and just having dominant pitching.

So, yeah, the Mariners know how they have to build a team to win in October. They literally just did it. And they tried to do the same thing again. They just failed. And the reason they failed is because, you know, Cal Raleigh didn't hit home runs and Josh Naylor didn't hit home runs. And Julio had a down year on top of them being tragically awful, base running and defensive teams.

So again, this team does not have to go from the worst defensive team in baseball to the best defensive team in baseball to make the playoffs next year and do damage. No, they just have to be closer to average. Because at the end of the day, to win in the playoffs, you have to hit home runs. You have to pitch really well. And the Mariners were built to do both those things. They just didn't this year. And because there's so much focus was put on those things and they didn't happen,

things like the base running and the defense got magnified. On top of those, also getting significantly worse in 2026 and they were in 20, 25. So yeah, I don't think there's really lessons to be learned, so to speak, because I think the Mariners are well aware of how to, you know, play baseball in October and win in October and like how to get there. I think they understand all that. But, you know, there are like, I just don't think there's going to be like, it's not, it's not like football, right, where there's like this revolutionary scheme and you're like, whoa, we can integrate that into our system. And like, no, no, it's not really like that.

The baseball, I don't want to say it's a solved game because it's not, obviously, it's a constantly evolving game, but we generally know how to succeed in major league baseball this year, and it's just up to the players to go and do it, and they just didn't this year. You look at teams that are still playing,

they did, and that's why they're still playing. So, you know, Cleveland is, they don't hit a lot of home runs, but they pitch very well, they play good defense. Can they win a World Series with that formula?

They haven't yet. you know and you know the white socks strike out a ton and and but they also hit home runs they don't have elite pitching but and they win a world series that way i don't know i guess we're about to find out there are obviously ways you can win a world series i mean the royals won one one with speed and defense in a bull but a predominant like predominantly the world series champion hits a lot of home runs has really good pitching and that's what they do in october to get there well ideally you find a happy balance right you find a way to be a chameleon so you can win in a multitude of ways in october right where one night hey i need to hit the big home run and limit the other team to two or fewer runs the next night i might need to play small ball and so hopefully the mariners find that this winter where they can maintain that formula that i got them as far as it did in 2025 and hopefully beyond and then in the future, as well as addressing the problems that they very clearly had over the course of

this season that allows them to also find ways to win in different ways in the upcoming year. Yeah, I think there's mostly just a lot of reinforcement of what the Mariners central tenants are. It's just a matter of them going out and executing it better than they did this year. Yep. All right, coming up, Mailback Monday continues, but first, a reminder of this episode of the Locktime Marys podcast is brought to you by Indeed. When workplace chaos hits and you need the right hire, Indeed sponsor jobs helps connect employers with candidates who match specific needs like skills, certifications, and location. The less time gets spent searching and more time gets spent finding the right fit.

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Sponsored jobs. And you're listening to the lockdown air is podcast. Part of the Locktime Podcast Network, your team every day. If you like the podcast, one of even more. more content from us, head on over to our Patreon at patreon.com forward slash control the zone or show some love by grabbing yourself a t-shirt hat or sticker on our merch store at a Hoysailers dash shop.4thwall.com link in the description of this episode. Next question here comes from Plato Steak.

He wants to know, do the Mariners finally start to make a competitive push for MPB players this offseason? unlikely like they're not going to go they're not going to get taraki sato that's not going to happen they're not going to get heromito be very surprised very very surprised if they landed either of those guys this winter or even aggressively pursued them in the first place think both of those guys are going to get paid but we'll see especially on sato you know some some murakami cops there and obviously murakami's market completely cratered so We'll see.

You know, always leave room for the possibility of that. But I think if they're going to sign anyone from Japan, it would probably be, it would probably be Kima, Tyra, the 5 foot 8 dude who throws 100. We know that they have scouted him,

at least a little bit already. So there is a connection there. But outside of that, yeah, I don't think there will be much action for the Mariners in that market once again. Yeah. You know,

aside from the possibility that a market collapses, which again did just happen last year, I just kind of two markets actually. I think in my East market also crashed pretty hard. So there is a possibility that that happens again with one or two of these guys. And at that point maybe, but like we talked about at the beginning of the show, this team's only got $30 million to spend.

I really doubt they're going to give, you know, 20 million of that to Sato, who's just a big question mark entering this year. I just, I don't think that would be prudent necessarily. So, you know, I don't think this is the year that they get back into it. Maybe I'm wrong, you know, and maybe the Mariners do have more money than we think. Or maybe there is a way to, you know, get kind of creative with the contract and structured in a way that, you know, helps you and, you know, is good for the player and all that. Like those things are possible.

I would just say it's pretty unlikely that the Mariners get involved this winter. And it's really hard when you have this, this limited payroll that the Mariners are having, you know, forced upon them by crappy ownership group. It's really hard to gamble on these players for huge amounts of money, which is exactly what you're doing. Do you want to give any rookie in baseball $20 million? And that be the only move, the only like sizable move you could make for the entire winter. If I was Jerry and Justin, I'd be very hesitant to do that as well. So I understand where they're coming from. This is kind of the problem with the mid-market teams.

You're not really allowed to make mistakes, not expensive ones. If you make expensive mistakes, you could be screwed for a couple years. And then you get fired. Yeah, well, Jerry and Justin already on the hot seat, I don't think that that would be something that they would do. But there is a path where it does make sense for them to do something like that. But the market has to behave a very particular way. And it just happened last year. So it might happen two years in a row.

but seems unlikely. All right. That is going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Mariner's podcast. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day for Colby Patnode. I'm Tadding Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at LO underscore Mariners.

You can also find us on Blue Sky at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby, and the show at Lockdown Mariners. You can also find us on Instagram and TikTok at Lockdown Mariners. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time. Peace.