Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Should the Struggling Mariners Bother Buying at the Deadline?

Starting point is 00:00:00 As the Mariner's struggles continue, more and more fans seem to be convinced that this team is just not even worth investing in. Well, Colby and I wholeheartedly disagree with that notion. And we'll tell you why. Coming up here on the Lockdown Marrars podcast. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariner's podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors.

Starting point is 00:00:29 It is Wednesday, July 3rd, 2024. This is Tiding and Colby Patnaud for the Lockdown Marrers podcast. part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team, every day. On today's show, the athletic columnist and former Yankees baseball operations analyst Andrea Arka-Depani tells us what the data says about Julio's struggles this season. Then Colby and I will also discuss this ridiculous idea going around that the mayor should actually not add at the deadline and even potentially consider just outright selling.

Starting point is 00:01:01 But before we do that, shout out to our title sponsor today. prize picks it's the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports go to priespix.com slash locked on MLB and use the promo code locked on MLB that's all lowercase for a first deposit match up to $100 and if you want to hear from me and colby even more and help support the show check out our patreon the link is in the description and you can sign up for a free seven day trial so what is going on with Julio what is the data say about Julio's struggles right now We're going to talk to Andrea Arkadipani about just that right now. I'm now joined by Andrea Arkadipani, founder of Scoutgirl Report.com and columnist for the athletic fantasy.

Starting point is 00:01:46 She also formerly worked in the baseball ops department for the New York Yankees, and she's here to tell us all about what's going on with Julio Rodriguez. Andrea, thanks so much for coming on. Yeah, thanks so much for having me. So yesterday, well, two days ago for those of you that are watching, you put out a video, kind of breaking down the data around Julio. This is obviously a big talking point in the Marriss community right now. It's a major concern with obviously the Marriers are vastly struggling offensively.

Starting point is 00:02:16 And as I've said on this show many times and my co-os as well, those issues, they ultimately start with the face of your franchise, Julio Rodriguez, who is not even producing at a leak average rate right now. He's not hitting for extra base hits. His pull rate is significantly down. as you talked about quite a bit in your video as well. So let's dive into this a bit more. What is going on with Julio right now? Why is he struggling to the degree that we're seeing at the moment?

Starting point is 00:02:48 Well, I think it all goes back to the pitches that he has the most trouble against, which in his case, it's off speed and breaking pitches. And that's very common for a lot of players. but since he's done so well in past years, I think pitchers are making an extra effort to target him, especially in like damage counts. So if you look into like hitters counts and first pitch versus right hand of hitters and left handed pitchers and right handed pitchers,

Starting point is 00:03:19 he's getting a lot more breaking and off speed stuff. And as a result, he's a little more off balance. He's swinging and missing. He's fouling off a lot of pitches because he's not barreling the ball. So, which I'm sure fans have picked up on. And Rodriguez is the type of hitter who, like, historically has been very aggressive up front. And then if he falls behind, he's, like, a little more conservative and picky. But I don't know if that approach is necessarily working for him in this case because he's so aggressive and he doesn't hit breaking stuff as well.

Starting point is 00:03:53 And they're throwing more first pitch. He's falling behind a lot more. So it's causing him to have more of, like, a protection. kind of style at bat as opposed to free swinging and having control he's used to. So I guess the question then that's on everyone's mind is how do you fix that, especially mid-season, right? When, you know, you spent this whole, you know, he spent this whole off-season working on swing changes with his hitting coach.

Starting point is 00:04:20 He recently had his personal hitting coach come out to Seattle, work with him on the off day that they had once they got back home. that hasn't really produced anything different so far that we've seen. But yeah, how do you kind of change this on a dime? Because I've said this again, especially with the way that it seems the market is going to take shape. It really doesn't matter who you add at the deadline. The most impactful addition you can make this year midseason

Starting point is 00:04:48 is Julio getting it together. So how does that happen? Right. And the good news is I do think he is the type of player who is willing to adapt and make changes because of kind of what you said about the swing changes that he's made. Like just watching a few videos, you could see that he's like more upright this year. His hands are higher up. Like he's open to trying new things. It's not helping with the contact rates, that new approach, but I wonder if that's just because he doesn't actually see like the movement

Starting point is 00:05:19 of breaking pitches very well. So I think it comes down to a potential change in approach, maybe becoming a little less aggressive, especially if the pitcher that he's about to face has a really good slider or a really good curveball that they throw first pitch. Maybe he recognizes that and goes to an at-bat ready to lay back a little bit. So just switching things up, like being more picky up front as opposed to falling behind. Like aggressive approaches are not necessarily bad, but in these kinds of cases, when you have a weakness that is now being exploited, maybe that's something that you need to rethink and just pull back on at least in the short term so you could change it up and not be so I don't want to say easy but opposing teams know that this is a weakness now

Starting point is 00:06:04 and it's being exploited so it might be better and it would throw other teams off if he changed his approach a little bit. So let's talk a little bit about kind of the trickle-down effect that both Julio has negatively and what he could have positively on this offense if he does kind of turn it around. Again, this is one of the worst offenses the merits have fielded in team history so far. They spent all offseason trying to

Starting point is 00:06:32 cut down the heavy strikeout issues that they had this year and brought in historically guys that have historically not struck out that much in years past and yet those guys like Jorge Palanco Mitch Garver, they're all striking out at career high rates. So how much do you think

Starting point is 00:06:48 Julio, outside of just he'll give you, you know, production that is more in line with what you were expecting. How much does that also help some of the guys around him? Right. Well, he plays a major role, and they say that, like, offense is contagious, and that's not, you know, backed up by fact, I don't think. But I do think that plays a part, like, when the team is doing well

Starting point is 00:07:10 and there's, like, a nice vibe in the clubhouse, everyone starts feeling good. And, I mean, the Mariners are still in first. So they're doing well. Like, there should be a positive feeling in there. But I think it would be a big deal of, he was able to get it together and step up and then everyone would follow suit. And the strikeouts are a problem. And just in general, there's not really a ton of power coming from that lineup.

Starting point is 00:07:34 I think I saw before Luke Rayleigh was the guy who was hitting the most consistent power. And he's not, I wouldn't consider him like someone I would confidently want as my starting left fielder. And he's a high strike out hitter. So that was something that you said they were trying to avoid. which you're not going to avoid that from him. And he's more of like a power upside hitter. Like I wouldn't field him and say, okay,

Starting point is 00:07:58 this guy is definitely going to hit for power all year. So, and then there's been other disappointments in like Hanager and, I mean, Raleigh's been good, but he's a catcher. He's doing very well, but the offense shouldn't rely on him.

Starting point is 00:08:11 So, yeah, I think that if, you know, Julio gets going, then hopefully, like, others will follow,

Starting point is 00:08:17 but I agree that they could use some additional help. And, um, On top of that, like, I don't necessarily subscribe to, like, the whole team needing to be completely balanced. Like, the pitching is so good. That could get them far on its own, but it would be nice if they could, like, show more consistency in the offense. Yeah, I think they desperately need to at least try and get back to close to average as an offense on the whole. And, yeah, they have a lot of work ahead of them over the next few weeks here. You know, fortunately, at least they have one of the best farm systems in baseball to trade from.

Starting point is 00:08:50 But the market, especially with, you know, all those teams kind of bunched up in the National League wildcard race right now, it's going to be difficult to get the help that you, that you truly need. How do you think the market in general might end up playing out this year? I've been having trouble answering that question because of the expanded playoff. So do I. but I do feel like there is like a huge financial incentive to just get into the playoffs and teams are okay with being like mediocre enough to just get in. So because of that, I think that we'll see like a 50-50 approach. Like, okay, we'll make a trade to make our team marginally better, but not like an explosive deal. Look, we used to see maybe more often like before the expanded playoffs.

Starting point is 00:09:42 So I don't know. I do think that there are some players that are going to be impactful if they're traded. But hitters, like power hitters and consistent hitters are obviously very hard to come by. Like I'm having trouble thinking of one off the top of my head that might be traded this year because they're all on the competitive teams. But, you know, we'll see what happens. I thought maybe Brandon Lau from the raise be like a bath that might go because he has two club options coming up. and he's going to be too expensive for the race to keep on. So that would be like a middle infield power bat that might be appealing for the Mariners.

Starting point is 00:10:21 But I don't know. We'll see. So, Andrea, before I let you go, I really appreciate your time. I really appreciate you hopping on here and talking about Julio with us. Let us know what you got going on right now. What's new in your world, especially, you know, after you wrapped up with the Yankees and all that? Yeah. So I wrapped up with the Yankees last year, and that was like a really cool experience because I got to, you know, work on player evaluation, the trade deadline with them, like arbitration, all that kind of stuff. So I weren't a lot. And then after that, I've just been trying to stay involved in baseball however I can. So like making videos about the arbitration process, player evaluation, like how I think players will do moving forward. And just like adding on Twitter and contributing to the athletic on a monthly basis.

Starting point is 00:11:12 and depending on the time of year, more than that. And I do columns for them about scouting. So I analyze players from more of a traditional scouting lens, which is very cool. Well, Andrea, thank you so much for being on here. Let the people know where they can find your work. Yeah, you could follow me on Twitter or X at Scout Burr Report. I also have a YouTube channel that you could subscribe to and my website, ScoutGoreport.com.

Starting point is 00:11:41 And it's great stuff. been following Andrea for years now. She does great work. Absolutely check it out. Thanks, Andrea. Thank you so much. Thank you again to Andrea for hopping on and talking to us a little bit about Julio.

Starting point is 00:11:54 Now it's time for Colby and I to address what is for some reason the biggest topic of discussion in this fan base right now. I mean, look, the team is really struggling right now, but we got people that are ready to just wave the white flag on this team, even though they're still three games up in the division. And there are some people out there, folks, that straight up want this team to just sell at the deadline. So we're going to get into that in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Locktime Airs podcast is brought to you by booking.com and game time.

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Starting point is 00:13:49 create an account, and use the promo code locked on MLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Again, create an account and redeem the promo code Locked on MLB. That's LOC, KED, O N, MLB for $20 off. Download the GameTime app, last minute tickets, lowest price, guaranteed. And you're listening to the Locked on Mariners podcast. Once again, you can catch the Mariners and the Orioles tonight. and tomorrow afternoon on the mayor's hometown broadcast serious xm via the sxm app all you have to do to find that is search the word mariners and by the way folks no show tomorrow we're going to enjoy the holiday and we'll uh we'll catch you guys on friday for fan fiction friday and maybe this fan fiction friday will do something a little bit different because again some of you want to sell they

Starting point is 00:14:38 you want this team to sell for whatever reason so let's switch things up on fan fiction friday Let's see your best ideas for selling at the deadline. How about that? And we'll react to those trades. So yeah. You look at our comment sections on yesterday's show. There were some people that were like, this team isn't a buyer. They're actually a seller.

Starting point is 00:14:59 And then after last night's disaster, which, again, was a disaster. Like, you don't score any runs. You only get two hits. And both of those hits come from the same guy. It doesn't matter how good Grayson Rodriguez is and how good the Orioles bullpen is. You have to do better than that. That's unacceptable. but there's more people on Twitter after last night's game saying hey yeah this team should sell they they suck this is who they are they definitely shouldn't buy at least they shouldn't anything from this from this farm system they should keep that intact and just roll into next year and just try next year basically uh no colby what are your thoughts people are reactionary right every loss is the worst loss that we've ever seen every offense

Starting point is 00:15:43 performance is the worst performance we've ever seen. The Mariners have never looked this bad this year. You know, if you ignore the first two weeks of the season when they had the exact same record as they have the last two weeks of, right, you know, the most recent two weeks. So, yeah, for four weeks of this season, the Mariners have been a bad baseball team for the other eight to ten weeks. They've been pretty darn good. Pretty freaking good.

Starting point is 00:16:05 And we know they have the pitching. We know that they have better offense in-house right now than we've seen. Julio is better than this. JP actually been pretty solid lately, but JP's a little bit better than this. Cal can find more consistency than this. We have track record that says Polanco and Garver better than this.

Starting point is 00:16:24 They actually, I don't know, I guess we're about to find out, but there are reasons to be fairly optimistic about in-house guys getting a little bit better. But yeah, obviously, you have to go out and you have to add guys from outside of the org to really push this thing over the top. But the crazy thing to me is that it's July 3rd. Okay, the trade deadline is in four weeks.

Starting point is 00:16:44 And the Mariners are in first place. What are you talking about that they shouldn't buy? That in fact, they should sell. They are in first place by three games. It's so dumb. It's so dumb. Yeah, they're up by three games. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:17:01 Like, they could have a disastrous next four weeks and be back, three games back of Houston, and they should still buy. This is your shot. winning the division is different than getting into the playoffs winning the division get you a home playoff series guaranteed it might get you a buy and we know how good this team is at home you have the starting pitching to get this done you have enough bats in house who should improve that if you go out and you get the right mix of players on the trade deadline the offense should be good enough it should be average and that's all you needed to be you have a bullpen

Starting point is 00:17:39 that's really held its own and is getting some of the pieces back together as well. And again, I cannot stress this enough, you're in first place. Well, also, we saw this offense produced at a league average rate, basically from the Brent Brown firing leading up to the Cleveland series when this started to fall apart. And they just won series after series after series, just being a league average offense. And that was still without Julio being anywhere close to what you need him to be. We've seen the proof of concept.

Starting point is 00:18:18 You need to add to the Spock Club. I mean, hell, considering what you are fielding right now on a regular basis, three league average bats would make a world of difference right now. Right? They should do more. Not saying they should. They should do more. But this notion that it's a matter of,

Starting point is 00:18:39 of, well, they should just do nothing or they're going to just sell off their entire farm is ridiculous. And by the way, if they do make a big trade, their farm's still in a really, really good shape. And also, say what you want about this front office. They're really good at the draft. And guess what's coming up in two weeks, folks? The draft. Oh, my God, they're going to be able to replenish this farm system right now. And oh, by the way, they have a, they have a couple of dudes lined up to sign in the international signing period in January as well. It is virtually impossible for the mariners to gut the farm system at the deadline this year. It's pretty much impossible because they could trade six of the top 10 in their system at this deadline.

Starting point is 00:19:29 And still, honestly, probably be top 15 farm systems. system in all baseball, like that is what drafting and developing does. It lets you be aggressive on the trade market. And this idea that I don't want to break up the farm, why? Because you don't want to miss out on Kyle Lewis or Evan White or Jared Kellnick or the countless number of other prospects that came through the system during the rebuild who failed for one reason or another. Yeah, you hit on Julio, you hit on Kirby, hit on Gilbert.

Starting point is 00:20:01 You know who you didn't hit on or you know who you don't miss more specifically? Noel B Marte. You don't miss Noelvie Marte at all because you wouldn't have got Luis Castillo. Right. You don't miss Brandon Williamson at all. You don't miss Levi Stout at all. Right.

Starting point is 00:20:15 So this idea that the Mariners can't break up their farm because this is the only way they can win. You don't know if any of these guys are going to be good. Yeah. We don't know that Las Montes can hit Major League pitching. We're making educated guesses that Harry Ford can catch. That Cole Young isn't just some 230 slap hitter who can't play defense.

Starting point is 00:20:35 We're making assumptions on guys who are not even close to being big league everyday players. And you don't want to break that up for guys who have a track record of being proven big league players. And by the way, if you're trading the Las Montes,

Starting point is 00:20:51 if you're trading to Harry Ford, if you're trading to Cole Young, probably a track record of being all-star quality major league baseball players. But you don't want to break up this group that you've kind of fetishized in your head that they're going to be the ones to win the World Series,

Starting point is 00:21:06 Because why? Because you're afraid that you might trade away Julio instead of thinking, well, we might trade away Evan White. Instead, we might trade away Edwin Arroyo instead. Prospects fail all the time. And even the great organizations, their hit rate on prospects is less than 50%. You're going to have washout in any farm system. You're going to have players who do not produce. And you're going to look at that and you're going to go,

Starting point is 00:21:36 oh man i guess we probably should have traded them when their value was high back for this proven player it's the same concept we talk about all the time it's the same joke we make every year but it just remains true because not just mariner fans but just fan bases in general become very attached to their prospects and this idea of what this guy could be and it's the same joke we make every year las montes could be anything right what why would i want why would i want isok prade is las montes Las Montes could be anything. He could even be Issauc Paredes. Right. It's that same idea. Do you want the mystery box or do you want the boat? Oh, I need the boat. Like I have to have the boat right now. So I'll take that. And you know what? If the mystery box in five, six, seven years ends up being a plane, well, that sucks. But hey, I had the boat for three years. And the boat helped me get off the island, so to speak. So yeah, it's just this idea that, you know, I don't want to break up the prospects because. 2026 is the peak and oh we could have all these young players who are so cheap oh we're going to be the baltimore orioles and it's like first of all let's not pretend that the baltimore orials haven't

Starting point is 00:22:45 dipped into their farm pro into their farm system to go out and get players to make them better hello corbin burns that wasn't cheap that wasn't free they had to dip into their farm system to go get something they didn't have the mariners do not have enough majorly quality hitters right now what they have an abundance of is really good prospects This is a rocket science, people. It's very basic capitalism. I have something you want. You have something I want.

Starting point is 00:23:14 Let's work out a deal. Let's work out a barter here. And you know what? Maybe you get the better end of it this time around. Maybe in the long run, you'd rather have what I'm giving you. But I need to survive now. My interest is in what is happening today, tomorrow, the next day. Not in 2028.

Starting point is 00:23:35 You know what I'll worry about 2028? In 2028, that's when I'll worry about it. And you know what? You're still going to have money left in the bank for that rainy day in 2020, because you're going to continue to draft. You're going to continue to develop. And again, you're not shedding the entire farm system at this deadline. You could go get Bo Bichette, Luis Robert, and Yandi Diaz,

Starting point is 00:23:57 and you would still have ammo in your farm system left. Colby and I will pick up this conversation in just a moment, but first, a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown, I'm Aaron's podcast, is brought to you by prize picks. Price picks is America's number one daily fantasy sports app with over five million active members. All you do is pick more or less on two to six player's stat projections and watch the winnings roll in. You can now win up to 100 times your money on prize picks with as little as four correct picks. You can turn $10 into $1,000. And even though the finals are over, the hoops action doesn't stop on prize picks.

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Starting point is 00:24:57 The other thing, too, about the 2028 thing is like you're going to have four drafts in between now and then. You're going to have what, four or five international signing periods in between now and then. And you're probably going to make at least one or two moves that are more so selling oriented. Because even good teams do that, right? Like they want to make room for X player or what have you, right? Or they want to rearrange their financial situation, all that, whatever. And you'll get prospect capital from that as well. I told you very simply.

Starting point is 00:25:32 don't make any trades this deadline. And by the middle of 2025, you'll have the best farm system in baseball. Or make three trades, give up half of your top 10 right now, but you have a 50% chance to go to the World Series. If you don't pick the 50% chance to go to the World Series, if you don't pick that option,

Starting point is 00:25:52 you've lost your ever-loving mind. You've lost the plot. You're off the reservation. Like you are beyond help. Yeah. Because I've said this before and I'll say it again, you don't give a damn about what the Modesto nuts do. You know how I know that? Because you don't watch the Modesto nuts.

Starting point is 00:26:11 You watch the Seattle Mariners. This is not locked on Aqua Sox. You watch the Seattle Mariners. Okay. That is the team you care about. And I know you don't care about the 2028 Seattle Mariners. You know how I know that? Because you don't.

Starting point is 00:26:26 I don't care about the 2028 Seattle Mariners. And I care more than all of you. listening about this ball club because it's my livelihood. It is literally my livelihood that this team perform well. And I don't give a damn about who's going to play second base in 2028. It's 2024. Yeah. And I have a chance to win the American League West for the first time in 23 years.

Starting point is 00:26:51 Yeah. And I'm going to sit here and be like, oh, well, they've had a really bad two weeks. I guess we should probably just hoard Michael Oroyo, who's 19 years old and just got the A ball. It's so ridiculous. It's not just your best chance to win the ALS in 23 years. It's your best chance to win a championship in 23 years. And that's what we ultimately. Right.

Starting point is 00:27:12 This is what like for the longest time, you know, because of the drought, it just got turned into like, well, let's just make the playoffs and that's kind of and that's kind of like our goal, right? No one really had any sort of dream. There was no sort of discussion. Even from the team itself about winning a championship. It was just we got it in the drought. We got it in the drought.

Starting point is 00:27:30 All right. Well, we ended the draft. What's the next step after that? I guess winning in a division, but I don't want to just settle for that. I want to win a freaking championship, dude. And I want this team right now to do whatever it can within its power to do that. It has one of the best farm systems in baseball to trade from. Yeah, it's a limited market. Yeah, there probably aren't going to be that many bats that actually end up getting moved this off or this this deadline. But that doesn't mean you don't try, right? I'd be significantly, significantly more upset and critical of Jerry DePoto and Justin Hollander

Starting point is 00:28:04 if they did nothing or sold, then if they tried and it didn't work. We're three and a half weeks from the deadline. Yeah. And you're in first place. Buy, buy, buy. Ain't no lie. Right. scared money don't make that and all that good stuff right just go after this thing do whatever you can

Starting point is 00:28:31 and your power to add as much impact as possible at this deadline and anything short of that is a failure indeed all right that's going to do it for our show but before we get out of here a reminder that locked on has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on youtube and now it's also available on amazon fire tv and the free fire tv channels app locked on sports today is here for you covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of locked on plus our national shows covering every league find locked on sports today now available on the free fire tv channels app thank you so much for joining us here on the locked on mirrors podcast for colby pat note i'm tiding gonzal be sure to give us a follow on twitter at l o underscore merrners you can follow me at ty dame gonzalez and colby at cpat 11 that's cpat 1-1 you can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time peace

Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Should the Struggling Mariners Bother Buying at the Deadline?

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