Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Son of "What If... The 1994 Strike Never Occurred?"

Episode Date: May 16, 2020

Back out on the road, this time in a town with a population of 676, D.C. Lundberg continues to look at what the all-time hit list may look like if the 1994 MLBPA players' strike hadn't occurred, and the '94 & '95 seasons had been played to completion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Locked-on Mariners, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Here's your host, D.C. Lundberg. Happy Saturday, gang, D.C. Lundberg here with you out on the road once again, and better late than never. It's kind of difficult to explain what happened over the last couple days. But in any case, I am out on the road once again, and, you know, this may be the only roadshow in the history of road shows with no live audience. In any case, we are coming at you on location today from Athol, Idaho. Yes, Athol Idaho, ladies and gentlemen, A-T-H-O-L, which kind of sounds like I'm insulting somebody with a Lisp, but it's not that. It's Athol, Idaho.

Just a little bit north today of Silverwood Theme Park in the Idaho Panhandle. Ladies and gentlemen, the Lockdown Mariners Party in the Panhandle is continuing, of course, and we are part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, or T-L-O-P-N-O-T-L-O-P-N-Lopin, brought to you by Built Bar. Please remember to download right and subscribe to Locked-on Mariners on Google Podcast, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher Radio, or whichever podcasting app that you personally care to use. Ask your smart device to play Locked-on Mariner's podcast or any of the other programs here on Tlopin. Follow this program on Twitter at L-O-U-U-N-R-R-R-G and follow me on Twitter as well, if you would please. I'd really appreciate it at D.C. underscore Lundberg, L-U-N-D-B-E-R-G, if you're scoring at home. On the last show, I looked at some players whose numbers were affected by the 1994 MLBPA players strike, both single season statistics and career stats.

Today I'm going to pick up right where I left off in the second half of that show, continuing to look at what some players' career numbers may have looked like if the strike didn't erase part of the 1994 and 95 seasons. As I was writing the second half of the last show, I thought to myself, you know, what the all-time hit list would look like if the strike never occurred. So for the first half of the show, I will focus on career hit totals. On the last program, I projected Tony Gwynn to accumulate 3,239 hits instead of the 3,141 he currently has,

which would move him from 21st highest to 15th. When I'm done, I will give an updated version of what the all-time hit list may look like. We will begin with Paul Molitor. Like Harold Baines from yesterday, he's got two strikes he played through, 1881 and 1994. His Milwaukee Brewers played 109 games in 1981, leaving 53 unplayed. Here's where it gets hairy. On May 3rd, Molliter severely sprained his ankle and would be out until action resumed after the strike in August.

Who knows when he would have returned if this season hadn't been interrupted by the strike, but for the sake of argument, I will say that he would have returned after when the All-Star break was originally scheduled, which would have been July 16th, and the Brewers were scheduled to play 23 games after the originally scheduled All-Star break and the season resuming on August 10th. We'll take his first 23 games upon his return and pretend those numbers would have also applied to the 23 games after the originally scheduled All-Star break. He gains 85 at bats and 22 hits, and he hit 259. Certainly not Paul Molitor-like numbers, but he had a down season overall. all as the Brewers' center fielder and only hit 267 for the year. Now for 1994, by which time he was deaching full-time and wasn't on the DL as much.

He was with Toronto in 1994 who got through 115 games before the strike cut the season short. Molly played in all of them. I'll be a sport and say just for the hell of it, that Cito Gaston gave him a day off at some point, so Molliter will gain 46 games. I'll split this two ways just like I did on the last show. First, I'll simply take Molly's final 46 games and duplicate them to mimic the unplayed portion at the end of the season. In this scenario, he gains 184 at bats and 63 hits. His batting average during the span was 342, which was also his overall 1994 batting average.

Talk about consistency. I'm not done with the 1994 yet, though. Like I said, I've been using two different methods to project potential 1994 statistics, and this next one is the reason I like working with even numbers of games. I'll take Molitor's final 23 games of the 94 season and double those numbers to mimic what he may have done in the final 46 games to wrap up the fictitious, strikeless 1994 season. In this scenario, he would gain 186 at bats and 66 hits,

three more than the previous scenario, so we'll go with this one since it's more hits. I kind of like the smaller sample size, way, it's more representative of what kind of pace. A player was on at the time of the strike. Now to 1995, which has 18 missing games at the beginning of the season. Molitor is still with the Blue Jays, but he missed 15 games this year, which means he played 90% of them.

We'll also say he played 90% of those missing 18 games at the beginning, or 16 of them. In his first 16 games of the real 1995 season, Molly went to bat 75 times and got 19 hits. so he got off to a very slow start. We'll add those 75 at-bats and 19 hits to the other at-bats and hits we've given him during the missing portions of 1981 and 1994. And he goes from 3,319 career hits and a 306 batting average to 3,423 hits and a 306 batting average. That would move him from 10th to 8th on the all-time list,

leapfrogging Carl Yastromski, and depending on which list you're used, using Honus Wagner. More on that at the end of the show. Next, we'll go to Eddie Murray, who also has both strikes to deal with. Mr. Murray, as Ron fairly like to call him, is the only switch hitter in Major League Baseball with more than 3,000 hits and more than 500 home runs. So I will look at both totals to see how many hits and home runs he may have wound up

with had the strikes never occurred. His 1981 Baltimore Orioles played 105 of the originally scheduled 162 games. So there are 57 missing. Of those 105, Murray missed six of them, but he sat five games in a row in April. I couldn't find an explanation why, but I'm guessing it was because he was slumping because he was hitting 091 at the time. So it's likely that Murray would have played in pretty much all of the Orioles missing 57 games. But for the sake of using even numbers, once again, I'll say that he was given one day off and played 56.

So I'll take Murray's 28 games prior to the strike and Murray's 28 games following the strike, add those numbers together to mimic the games that were erased by the strike. Murray was hot both before and after the strike, hitting at 333 in the 28 games leading up to the strike, and 320 in the 28 games following the strike. his career batting average was 287, so he's well above his career numbers during the stretch. He'll add 217 at bats, 71 hits, and 15 home runs. I will also note that he led the American League in home runs in 1981 with 22. Without the strike, according to this math, I've got him at 37 home runs for the year,

which would have been a career best. He may have started 1981 really slowly, but he got hot and had a very good year. Now for the other strike. Murray's Cleveland Indians played 113 games, meaning that 49 are missing. Murray played in 108 of those games, and the five games that he missed all came in a row in May, and this looks like it may have been because of an injury. So I won't count those games against him while accounting for the missing games at the end of this season. But since I much prefer using even numbers for this, I will say that Mike Hargrove sits him one day,

so he plays 48 of the remaining games. I'm not a fan of 40 or 50 games sample sizes either, so I'll divide 48 by 2, which is 24, take Murray's final 24 games of the year, and double those numbers to apply to the 48 games I'm saying he played at the end of the strikeless 1994. He ended the season in a slump, however, hitting at a 221 clip over his final 24 games,

21 hits and 95 at bats. However, during his final 48 games, he was hitting at a 234 pace, certainly not Eddie Murray-like numbers, but better than the 221, so we'll go with these numbers since they're more favorable to him. He gains 192 at-bats, 45 hits, and seven home runs. Now to 1995, and he started that year like a house of fire. Hitting at a 408 clip, he gains 71 at bats, 29 hits, and five home runs.

So with all strikes now accounted for, Murray gains 480 at bats, 145 hits, and 27 home runs. moving his home run total from 504 to 531, and moving his hit total from 3,255 to an even 3,400. That moves him from number 13 to number 10, Paul Molitor's old position, on the all-time hit list. From here on out, I'm going to refrain on updating the hit list for every player, since there are more players with 3,000 or more hits affected by the 94 strike than I thought. I'll give an update at the end of the show, and I'll also spill this in. to next week, since next week's theme across the Lockdown Network, is the same as this one, and probably expand it to include the 1981 strike as well, as if I hadn't been doing that already.

One more player to examine before we take a break, and it'll be another player who played through both strikes. And one of only three men to be drafted by four professional sports leagues, Dave Winfield. I saw Winfield at the airport going home from the Hall of Fame ceremony in 2016. As it happened, we had the same flight. he, Ryan Sandberg, and George Brett all flew into Chicago from Albany to catch different connecting flights. Winfield was not particularly pleased when he learned the flight had been delayed. I saw Randy Johnson at the airport that day also. He was flying into Vegas, but I digress.

Back to Winfield. In 1981, Winfield played for the New York Yankees who completed 107 games. Winfield played in all but two of those games, so we'll give him one day off during the Evil Empire's missing 55 games. In the 27 games leading up to the strike, he was hitting at a 299 clip, which is four points above his season average. The 27 games following the strike, he was struggling a little bit, hitting at a 262 pace. With those 54 games added together to mimic the missing games during the strike, Winfield adds 210 at bats, 59 hits, and five home runs. Now we get to 1994, which is not going to be as cut and dry as the others.

Winfield was with his hometown Minnesota twins, and not only did he miss 13 games in late June due to an injury, but he was traded during the strike. The twins had waived him, no one claimed him, and he was traded to the Cleveland Indians just before the waiver deal deadline on August 31st. Winfield was exclusively a designated hitter at this time, and the Indians had the aforementioned Eddie Murray as their DH. He wasn't going to start in the outfield either. as the tribe had Albert Bell and Manny Ramirez in left and right field respectively. And Winfield hadn't played center field since 1984. So I really have to fudge with this one. Winfield wasn't even starting every day anymore for the twins as the strike was imminent.

The twins used Winfield maybe about two-thirds of the time, with Kent Herbeck, Kirby Puckett, and Pedro Munoz, also seeing time at DH. The twins had 19 games scheduled between the time the strike was called, and Winfield's trade to the Indians. Over the twins' 19 games leading up to the strike, Winfield played 10 of them. So we'll say that this accounts for the 19 games scheduled after the strike, but before his trade to Cleveland.

He was hitting pretty badly at a 167 clip. So now he's with Cleveland. The tribe had 28 games scheduled after they acquired Winfield, but they would have used him mostly as a pinch hitter with an occasional start maybe. And to those of you saying, you only gave Eddie Murray one day off, so Winfield only gets one start,

I will say to you that Murray did in fact start 26 games at first base in 1994, so it's not inconceivable that Murray could have started at first while Winfield DH'd. This is where I really have to make crap up. I'll say that over the tribe's final 28 games, Winfield started four of them, once a week, with eight other pinch hit appearances or twice a week. So instead of counting games to calculate this, I will count plate appearances.

eight plate appearances for the eight pinch hitting appearances, and I'll give him three played appearances in two of his starts, and four played appearances in his other two. So he'll gain 15 plate appearances. In his 15 plate appearances leading up to the strike, 14 of them were at bats as he did walk once, and he collected a whopping one hit. So in his make-believe time with the Indians,

at the end of the make-believe strikeless 1994, he hit 0-71. He did play. play in 1995 for the tribe as well, but it was used very sparingly, although he did appear in 11 of the team's first 18 games. And since 18 games are missing at the beginning of the season, I'll take Winfield stats from his 11 games and apply those to the missing 18 games at the beginning of the season. He hit 174 in those games. So after I add this mess altogether, accounting for both strikes, a trade which would have changed his role on his new team,

he gains 283 at bats, 70 hits, and six home runs. His hit total goes from 3,110 to 3,180, and his home run total goes from 465 to 471. Huh, that was a cluster. I need a break. So I'll read the Mariners trivia question. It has nothing to do with the 3,000 hit club or the two strikes we're dealing with. Who is the Mariner all-time leader in Sacrifice Bunce?

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Remember to use the promo code locked on to get $10 off your first order. And now the answer to the Mariners trivia question. The all-time mariner leader in Sacrifice Bunce is Dan Wilson with 85. Harold Reynolds is second with 63. Omar Visckel is third with 53. More Locked-on Mariners from Athol, Idaho in a bit. Welcome to the second half of Locked-on Mariners. Here once again is your host, D.C. Lundberg.

Thank you once again, J.M. wrapping up the week here on Locked-on Mariners, continuing our party in the Panhandle, a couple days later than I planned, but we are in Athol, Idaho today, a T-H-O-L, yes, not an insult using a Lisp. Today begins phase one of the Gem States reopening, and meanwhile, home in Spokane,

Zilch. Anyways, we're continuing something of a project I accidentally started on Wednesday's program, looking at some players whose career stats were affected by the 1994-95 player strike, specifically those high up on the all-time hit list. I didn't really mean to open up this Pandora's box, but I did. And since there are more players than I realized with 3,000 or more hits who played through 1994 and 1995, I will be continuing this next week and branching into the 1981 strike as well.

Let's get back to it. Hopefully the rest of the show is cut and dry with no injuries or weird trades or anything like that. Next player will look at is Craig Bezier. who currently has 3,060 hits and only has the 1994-195 strike to contend with. His Houston Astros played 115 games prior to the strike ending the 94 season, leaving 47 unplayed. Bezio played all but one game, so for the sake of using even numbers, since I like to split this a couple different ways,

will say that he would have played in 46 of the missing 47 games. In his 46 games leading up to the strike, he was hitting at a 343 page, well above his season-ending average of 318. He collected 62 hits and 181 at bats. Now let's see what he did in his last 23 games and find out if he'd wind up with more hits projecting it this way. Also, gang, I'm calculating these numbers as I write the script, so I don't know which projection is more favorable yet.

In Bezio's final 23 games, he collected 27 hits in 85 at bats and was hitting at a 318 clip, which was exactly his season-ending batting. average as a train passes by. If we double his numbers in those 23 games to mimic 46, that gives him 54 more hits, so we'll go with the other projection just for the heck of it. He gets eight more hits that way. To begin the 1995 season, BGio collected 19 hits in 70 at bat's in his first 18 games. So we'll add those numbers into the equation to mimic the 18 games lopped off the 1995 schedule. That gives him a total of 81 more hits, which will bring his total to

3,141, which is the exact same total Tony Gwynn wound up with before I projected his numbers out to account for the strike. We played with Gwyn's career numbers yesterday to account for the strike, so in this alternate universe, they're not tied. BGio's career batting average has also risen by one point from 281 to 282. He also gained six home runs, bringing his career total to 297, almost a member of the 300 Club. Most of his 1994 home runs came during the 46 games I duplicated to account for the missing games at the end of the season. His season total went from 6 to 10. Next, we'll look at the man who may have had the most level swing I've ever seen.

One of the best pure hitters of his day, Wade Boggs. He ended with 3,010 hits. Interestingly, his 3,000th hit was a home run, first ever to do that, and he was not a home run hitter. His average home runs per season was seven, and that includes 1987 where he hit 24 and showed everyone that he could hit more home runs if he wanted to. But it just wasn't his game. Anyway, Boggs rookie season was 1982, so we don't have to deal with the 1981 strike, just 1994. Looking at his 1994 numbers for the first time, I got to chuckle out of the fact that Boggs hit 11 home runs that year,

the second and final time he ended with a double-digit home run total. Anyways, it was his second year with the Yankees, and they played 113 games leaving 49 unplayed. Boggs played in 97 of the Yanks 113 games are about 86%. If he played 86% of the unplayed 49 games, he would have played 42 of them. I'm glad this came out to an even number. Well, 42.14, but that rounds down to 42. Time to see which sample size is more favorable. I'll begin with his final 42 games where he accumulated 59 hits in 163 at bats.

That's a 362 clip, 20 points higher than his season-ending batting average of 342. In his final 21 games, he hit at a 369 pace, 31 hits and 84 at bats. So the smaller number of games is the more favorable projection. As we would double those 21 games to mimic 42, he gains 62 hits in 168 at bats. He also gains four home runs, bringing his season total to 15. Moving on to 1995, Boggs played a little more sparingly, and the days off he was given seemed to be pretty consistent throughout the beginning of this season. In the Yankees' first 18 games, he played 16.

And since, as I said, he was getting regular days off, I'll take those 16 games and duplicate them to account for the missing 18 games at the beginning of the schedule. He gains 57 more at bats and 19 hits, no more home runs. So overall, he gains 81 more hits, the same number of hits Begio gained during the previous projection, bringing his career total to 3,09. He also gained one point on his batting average going from a great 328 to a 329. One more player before we call it a day and enjoy the weekend. And I've chosen someone who played through only one strike, but not the 1994 strike. We're going to see what Rod Karu may have done if the 1981 strike never happened.

Carew ended his career with 3,053 hits and an identical batting average to a very similar hitter the man we just examined, Wade Boggs. Karu was with the California Angels by this time, and those angels played 110 of the originally scheduled 162 games, meaning the strike erased 52 games. Karu played 93 of the 110 games, but most of the games he missed were in late September. He missed 11 games in a row, so simply calculated. a percentage of games played really wouldn't be representative of the middle of the season. He was getting a day off here or there, so I'll just say that he plays 50 of the missing 52 games. Beginning with the 25 games leading up to the strike, Carew was hitting very well at the time.

He gains 106 at bat and 37 hits. That means he was hitting at a 349 clip, which was significantly higher than his season-ending batting average of 305. In the 25 games following the strike, he gathered 30 hits and 97 at bats. So during those 50 games, he gains 67 hits, bringing his career total to 3,120. His batting average remains at 328, and he also gains a whopping two home runs, bringing his career total to 94. So to update the all-time hit list with the projections that I have noted, Pete Rose is still obviously on top with 4,256, which will change next week since he played through 1981.

Ty Cobb is second, 4189, which a little bit of an asterisk with that. I'll get to that in a little bit. Hank Aaron's still three. Stan Musial is still four. Tris Speaker number five. Derek Jeter is six with 3,465, and he didn't make his major league debut until 1995, and he was not called up at the beginning of the season, so we're not saying that the 1995 strike affects him at all.

Cap Anson is number seven at 3435, and I will explain why that is in just a bit. He's followed by Paul Molitor's updated 3423, and he is followed by Honus Wagner at 3420, and I will get to a note about that in just a little bit as well. Number 10 is Carl Yostremski at 3419, followed by the updated 3,400 that Eddie Murray has. Eddie Collins is next 3315, then Willie May's Naples, and Tony Gwyns updated 3239. He's followed by Albert Pooholz, who is still an active player, and he's followed by Cal Ripkin, Jr., who we will get to next week. Dave Winfield follows Ripkin with his updated 318, then Adrian Beltray, the recently retired Adrian Beltray and former Mariner at 3166.

George Brett follows him. We'll change his 3154 next week. And then Paul Wainer at 3152. He's followed by Robin Yount, and his total will change next week as well. Yount is followed by Craig Bezio with 3141, which we updated today. And he's followed by Rod Karoo, who we updated today at 301. He's followed by Alex Rodriguez at 315, who sort of was affected by the 94-95 strike. I'll get to that next week.

And, of course, he was later busted for PED use a couple of times, I want to say. And he's followed by Wade Boggs' updated total of 3091. Boggs is followed by Ichiro at 3089, just two hits behind Boggs updated total. Ichero was followed by Ricky Henderson, whose total will change significantly next week since he played through both strikes. He currently has 3,055, and is followed by the man who's stolen base records, he broke. Lou Brock at 3,023. Brock is followed by Raphael Palmero, another PED All-Star, who has 3,020.

I was actually at the game in which he got his 3,000th hit, and then a couple weeks later we find out that it's all fake. Al K Al Kline follows the tainted Palmero at 3,07, and the 3,000 hit club is of course rounded out by the late Roberto Clemente at exactly 3,000. One quick note about Honus Wagner. There is a discrepancy with his hit total listed here, which is from baseball reference, and the official total Major League Baseball uses, which is from the Elias Sports Bureau. It's far too complicated to get deep into here, so I'll try to just graze over it.

Research done in the late 60s discovered that Wagner was given credit for 10 more hits than he had in reality, They went year by year to find out the real total, which turned out not just to be a simple typo. Ditto Ty Cobb, who was given credit for two extra hits. Cap Anson is a completely different story. Major League Baseball does not count the 423 hits he accumulated in the National Association, which they do not consider a major league. Baseball reference does consider this a major league, so there is a discrepancy of 423 hits between the baseball reference list and the official MLB list.

The baseball reference list is more accurate, so that's what I'm going with here. In any case, ladies and gentlemen, next week I will finish up this project. Just a handful of players left to examine and project out to see what they would have done if the strikes that claimed part of their careers never happened. And as always, please remember to download, rate, and subscribe to Locked-on Mariners on Google Podcast, Apple Podcast, Spotify, Stitcher Radio, whichever podcasting app that you personally care to use. Follow the show on Twitter at L.O. underscore Mariners.

Follow me on Twitter as well, please, at D.C. underscore Lundberg. I hope you've been enjoying this little project I kind of stumbled into as much as I have. Next week is more of the same. Plus, hopefully, an episode of Diamond Quiz, which will be the episode of Champions. Taylor Blake Ward, Paul Sully Sullivan, and Jeff Snyder will all return as the three players. who have won the three games and not only won those three games, but trounced their opponents. They will all be playing each other, hopefully next week, on Locked-on Mariners. And the Locked-on Mariners party in the Panhandle will continue,

and ladies and gentlemen, I hope that you have a wonderful weekend. This is Joey Martin speaking for Locked-on Mariners, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. Ask your smart device to play Locked-on MLB upon the conclusion of this program.