Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Thanksgiving Mailbag: Fixing Robbie Ray, Leadership Changes and More Mariners Questions

Episode Date: November 24, 2022

Take a break from your Thanksgiving festivities to join Ty and Colby for a chill holiday mailbag in which the two discuss if Robbie Ray can fix himself in 2023, which Mariners will step up as leaders if Marco Gonzales and Mitch Haniger depart, under-the-radar second base targets for Seattle and more!Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Whether you're cooking in the wee hours of this Thanksgiving morning or chowing down on your first, second or hell, even your 10th serving of all the good food and treats. Thank you so much for making us a part of your day here on the Lockdown Mariners podcast. We're going to answer a few listener questions. Colby, hit it. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Hello, hello. It is Thursday, November 24th, 2022. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

This is Ty Dying Azales. I love Thanksgiving and Colby for the Locked-on Mariners podcast. Thank you so much for making us your first listen, subscribe, like and turn on alerts if you're watching on YouTube or subscribe and leave a five-star review on your preferred podcast platform. If you like what you hear and if you want to hear from us even more, please consider signing out for our Patreon. The link as well as our social accounts is in the description below. Should be a pretty quick show today. We've got some leftover questions for Monday's mailbag episode that we're going to get to and then we'll be on our way. So let's just hop right into it.

Our first question comes from Rick who says, Hey, guys, love your show. Thank you so much, Rick. Rick says my question is what happened to Robbie Ray at the end of last season. And can he fix it? So, Colby, very simple question. Can Robbie Ray fix himself? Yeah, sure.

Why not? He was very good for the vast majority of 2022. The big struggles came. right at the end. Unfortunate timing in that aspect. Ray really had two stretches where he struggled quite a bit. One was from, you know, kind of late April to mid to late May. And the other, unfortunately, was in October in his last handful of outing. So it's for, you know, 25 of his 32 starts or whatever, he was, he was very good.

So just, you know, bad timing on that end. But, yeah, his fastball command, he just kind of lost it, and the slider really flattened out on him. Didn't have the same bite that it used to. So when you're a fastball slider pitcher and you don't really have either pitch, you can't make it do what you want, you're going to get hit around. And that's exactly what happened to Robbie Ray. But, you know, Ray has a history of, you know, tweaking and grinding and, you know,

making necessary changes. We've already seen them do it. We saw him do it in Toronto to turn himself into a Syung Award winner. We saw him do it last year when he added the two seamer. So Robbie Ray's is a tinkerer. He's a grinder. And yeah, you know, he's got to put a rough end to his 20-22 season behind him. And, you know, it's kind of the beauty of, it's kind of the beauty of, you know, baseball, really is that eventually your struggles will end.

the calendar turns it's you know start of something new and you get to go into spring training and really try to pitch as well as you did for a majority of the season for the entire season and if Robbie Ray does that then he's a very strong number three probably number two and at times it'll look like an ace so I have high confidence in Robbie Ray that he'll he'll get this fixed yeah I think for for him really it was a confidence issue because you know you talk about the slider flattening out. I mean, he really didn't have an out pitch. He wasn't able to miss bats when he really needed it the most,

especially against Ritey's, right, with that slider. It just wasn't existent for quite some time. And so I think that kind of belt and snowballed, especially once it kind of got away from him again towards the end of the season. And then, you know, he goes into Toronto to his former ballpark, playing against his former team, pitching against his former team for the first time, he signed with the Mariners because of course he wasn't able to make the trip up to Toronto the first time and uh just craps the bed right like no one on it just had an awful appearance gives up a couple

home runs to say Oscar Hernandez the crowds chanting Robbie Robbie all that stuff and that's got to you know that's got to do something negative to a guy's psyche and you know the mental aspect of things is is an important part when it comes to pitchers especially later on in the season and then you know three days later he's asked to do something that he hasn't done all season, first of all, to get ramped up in that quick of fashion, but also to pitch out of a bullpen roll. And, oh, by the way, you got to go get the most important out in Mariners history of the last 20 years against one of the best hitters in all baseball. And lo and behold, he can't against Jordan and Alvarez, who, you know, hits that three-run home

run. And that's really it for Robbie's season. Of course, he made an appearance in game three of the ALDS. and, you know, towards the end there of that absolute slog and had a pretty good outing. You know, so hopefully that, you know, builds a little confidence back for him just to end the season on not necessarily a high note, but a more positive note than, you know, where he was the last two outings. But, yeah, I think it's, you know, it's really just a confidence thing for him. And the thing that really will probably heal him the most is just time, right? time away from the game. You know, just enjoy the off season,

enjoy some time with his family and, you know, work on some things during the off season. And I think once we get back to spring training, Robbie Ray is going to be a bit more refined and a bit more, you know, a bit more focused and ready to go for 2023, which leads into our next question here from Antonio, who asked, what can we expect out of Robbie Ray next year?

Is it reasonable to expect a bounce back or is he just destined to be our number four starters? Colby, you kind of already touched on this, but what can we expect from Robbie Ray next year? Yeah, I expect Robbie Ray to essentially be a really good mid-rotation starter. That doesn't mean that he won't also be your number four, which is pretty exciting. But if Robbie Ray is your number four starter, it's not going to be because he's pitching like a number four. It's just going to be because the three other guys are better, which is certainly in the realm of possibility. So, yeah, I would expect Robbie to, you know, come back next year.

He's going to put up his, you know, 10, 11K per 9. He's probably going to walk around three and a half guys per nine and probably throw up some, you know, sub four fifths. And we'll see. Like I think he's still a number three starter. I think that's what the Mariners paid him to be. And I think for essentially 75% of the season, that's exactly who Robbie Ray was. And there were some stretches in there where he was, you know, flat out dominant. So I expect to see a lot more of that.

I don't really have any concern about Robbie Ray entering 2023. You know, I think it's important just to remember how good he was for about four months there. So, yeah, if, again, if Robbie Ray does end up being the Mariners number four, it's probably because Castillo, Kirby, and Gilbert are all pitching, like, number threes or number twos or better. So it would probably be a good sign if Robert was actually your number four. Yeah, maybe they land a starting pitcher. this off season. Kodai Senga,

you know, maybe one of the, they, you know, one of the veterans like Nathan Avaldi or someone like that, you know, maybe someone like that out pitches him.

And that's a really good thing for the Mariners. So yeah, at the end of the day, I'm not too concerned about Ray. Like I said, I think we're going to see a refined Robbie Ray once we get back to spring training

and one that's ready to produce. So we got more questions coming up in just a moment. But real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by BetOnline. Betonline. dot net is your number one source for sports betting info, stats, news, and analysis. Get the latest odds and trends for every professional and amateur league out there.

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So let's hop back into our questions. Well, real quick, just to pull back the curtain a little bit, we're recording this on Tuesday. So if anything has happened between when we're recording this and Thursday, we may have gotten to it on our Wednesday show, or we'll get to it on Friday. We'll also probably do some fan fiction Friday stuff and all that, but we'll let you guys know about all that on our social platforms

at LO underscore Mariners on Twitter. You can check our YouTube page as well. We post some updates on there. All that good stuff. All right. So next question comes from baseball nightly. What do you think would be a fair trade to go get Colton Wong? Also, who would maybe be an off-the-radar guide you guys would like to see come in at second through trade or free agency?

So let's first address the first part of this question. What would it take to go get Colton Wong? What would be a fair deal, a fair return for the brewers? It's a little tough to say. The brewers are the definition of a mid-market team. They act like it. And they have some payroll issues that they need to address. They have, I think 19 guys going through ARB.

I think they've only non-tendered a couple of them. And they're getting to the point now where they're either going to have to, you know, extend or trade Corbin Burns and Brandon Woodruff and both those guys are going to be expensive and they've already got so much money getting eaten up by Christian Yelich who's not

performing worthy of the contract so yeah it really comes down to what do the Brewers want to do in 2023 and where are they trying to save money because Wong's $10 million is a pretty easy way to save money and also I believe he

has a $5 million deferred bonus. So I think the brewers are technically on the hook for $15 million towards Colton Wong. It's a lot for the Milwaukee Brewers. And they have some options up the middle. They have Willie Adamas, who's also making some money this year. They have Uriahs. They have options in the infield. So if Colton Wong is more of a quote unquote salary dump,

which I don't know if they would view him as that, but it's essentially what he is, then the Mariners are going to get him for something pretty cheap. cheap. I would imagine for one year of Colton Wong, honestly, I think you know, you're looking at probably a top 15-ish back into the top 15 prospect. Maybe somebody outside your top 25 as well. You're really not talking about much here. I don't think. I think, you know, at most, at the high end, we're talking about, you know, Peralander Baroa maybe, but I don't even think it's going to cost that. I think you're looking at, you know, maybe something like Juan Pinto and...

I'm going to call my shot here, actually. Oh, okay. Zach Deloche and Joseph Hernandez. Okay. Well, we'll see. Fernandez is, uh, was not, uh, he is required to be on the 40 man. Uh, not required, but he is rule five eligible, I should say. Um, so we'll see, but yeah, I, again, I think that's pretty close to right because

it's really tough for the brewers to pretend they have leverage here when they own $15 million and they don't want to pay him $15 million. So, and honestly, the Mariners are probably going to get some money from Milwaukee for that package. So, yeah, it's not going to cost a ton, which is why I think the Mariners are interested on top of Wong being just a really pretty good player. So I think that's why Wong makes a lot of sense. He's going to be relatively cheap to acquire pay.

you know, his salary doesn't really matter to the Mariners. And he's a good player. So, yeah, I really don't think it's going to cost all that much. I don't think you're going to look at the trade cost of Colton Wong and be like, wow, that's, I am not a big fan of that. So I think you're just going to look at it and be like, yeah, okay. Like, kind of like what Adam Frazier went for last year, right? Like Ray Kerr and Corey Rozier, interesting guys, but neither is a guaranteed major leaguer.

or so. It's probably going to be less than that because, I mean, Frazier's contract situation was a bit more favorable for the Padres. Whereas like you mentioned with the Brewers, it's not as much here with Wong, even though that they did pick up the option on him, the $10 million option on him. Yeah.

I mean, like they probably did that because they know that they can get at least something that's interesting for him. And I think that, you know, a Deloche Hernandez package, that's pretty interesting. There's a lot of folks that are really high on Joseph Hernandez. is and, you know, Deloche is a guy that's close to the major league level, fairly close, needs to start

producing a little bit better than he has as of late. But he's someone that's probably going to be, you know, a fourth outfielder at the major league level might provide some value and might have a better chance to actually play in Milwaukee. So we'll see. There's a bunch of different combinations, but I think that's generally the range that's going to land you, Colton Long. next question here comes from Vanessa Sarah who says with the potential loss of clubhouse leaders

examples being Marco to trade Hanager signs with another team who steps up into those roles we saw how important it was when Santana came in and turned team attitudes around in the clubhouse and on the field so you know I think there's a lot of candidates I mean some of them have already established themselves as leaders like Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford and I think you know, we're seeing some growth out of some other guys like Julio, right? Julio, you know, I mean, Julio adored Carlos Santana. I'm sure took a lot of notes from how Santana led and we'll apply that to how he leads in the future.

You know, Tom Murphy's a big clubhouse leader that's already been established. So, you know, I don't think that they're really short on that. I don't think that even if they do, you know, end up trading Marco, which is still kind of a big gift because of the money that's attached to him and, you know, who knows what you might be able to get for him, if anything. Who knows who's actually going to be interested in him all that? Even if you lose Hanager to free agency, which is starting to look more likely by the day, I think they're pretty good on that. Is there anyone else that comes to mind in terms of taking on a leadership role here?

You know, it's interesting. Hanager is very much a quiet leader. Like, that's kind of his role. Marco's very much the same. They lead by example. So it's not like they're missing the big, you know, raw, raw rally around me type of guy. And, you know, you mentioned Julio. Tom Murphy being back is going to help.

That is part of Murphy's reputation. And I mean, we can't forget, A. Eugenio Suarez and, you know, how much the clubhouse loves him. Like, I don't think it's going to be an issue really at all. And Scott Service has created a culture that allows players to be themselves and for leaders to step up when they're needed. And so I really don't think it's a concern.

I don't think it's something that Jerry is entering, has entered the offseason with thinking about it all. It's not like, oh, we can't trade Marco because we're going to lose Mitch because now we don't have any leadership or anything like that. He doesn't care about that. He has it. He knows he hasn't. And so, yeah, I think Cal Raleigh is probably the big one to step up.

and we started to see that at the end of last year. You know, bullpen guys start, pitchers really can't be that guy for teams because they just don't play every day. It's typically the everyday players that you want your leadership positions to come from. And we just talked about Cal Rale and Tom Murphy and A. E. Hounio Suarez and Julio and J.P., like, you're going to be fine. It's not a concern. Yeah, A. E. Junio Sor is another great call there. You know, he's someone that clearly took on a, you know, a bigger leadership role as, you know, of the season progressed and I mean that whole clubhouse loves him.

I think Tay Oscar Hernandez is going to be another guy that the clubhouse rallies around, you know, just because of the personality and all that. You know, we talked about that when they acquired him on our show that day. So yeah, again, I think the Mariners are in a really good spot when it comes to leadership. Next question here comes from Hayden says, love the show, guys. Thank you so much, Hayden. At which point do you see the Mariners giving Adam Frazier another shot if they don't land a bigger name or is there someone in-house that you would rather see at second base?

Hayden, to be quite frank with you, I don't think we ever get to that point. Mostly, honestly, I think this becomes a moot point because Adam Frazier ends up signing relatively quick. It seems like the Cubs are really interested in him. I've heard the Cubs quite a bit for Frazier. He seems pretty open to taking on a utility role in the Mariners. Detroit. is another team I've heard.

Yeah, and the Mariners have Sam Harrodite, they have Dillamore. I don't think they're trading either one of those guys, and you know, they're going to find a second baseman. They're going to find a second baseman that's not Adam Fraser. Whether or not it's one of the top short stops, it'll be a glaver torres. It'll be

brand and jury. It'll be someone like that. Yeah, you just can't stick to the status quo at second base. It wasn't good enough last year. That reminds me. By the way, we did not answer the second part of baseball nightly's question. Oh, we'll get to that in a second. Yeah, yeah.

We'll get to that in the moment. You can't stick to the status quo at second base. It didn't work. You had like a 74 WRC plus or whatever last year. It's not good enough. You have to get better there. There's no guarantee or really probability that Adam Fraser is going to be, you know, significantly better than he was last year.

So, you know, you just can't do that. again, you're trying to catch the Astros, not maintain your playoff spot. You have to improve at second base. So Adam Frazier, to me, never becomes an option because even as a utility guy, right now, I'd rather roll with Dylan Moore and Sam Haggurty and whoever they bring in to kind of platoon with those two guys. I would rather roll with that than Adam Frazier. So I think Frazier is probably going to get like two and like 15 or something like that,

and the Mariners have no business doing that. just pay the extra to go get Colton Wong or Glaber Torres or whoever. Yeah. All right. So let's, let's, uh, you turn back to, uh,

baseball nightly's, uh, wait, wrong. So that's a Seattle overload thing. Never mind. We're, we're crossing over here.

Uh, let's, uh, let's go back to baseball nightly's question here. Also, who would maybe be an off the radar guy you guys would like to see come in at second through trade or free agency? So I mentioned one of them,

Glaver Torres. But the other guy for me is Brandon, Drury, who actually made my top 10 free agents list when we did that whatever it was a week ago or two ago. Drury, you know, wasn't as good as he was in Cincinnati

when he went over to San Diego at the trade deadline, but he was still, you know, pretty useful. He made a swing change. Like he hit 24 bombs this year and really no one's talking about him this offseason. And it kind of seems like he's going to end up getting a deal somewhere in the $9 to $10 million

dollar aavre range like that's really affordable for a guy that hit 24 home runs and got on base quite a bit and hit for you know a bit of power outside of the home runs so I like the drury idea as a you know a fallback option here is there anyone else that comes to mind for you I feel like we've talked about literally everybody already and it's only November um outside the box you know I really don't think you can afford this guy but if you're looking for a name that really nobody's talking about. Jorge Polanco would be an absolute steal for Seattle.

He's a very good player for Minnesota. I just don't think he's likely to be available or that the marriage are likely to acquire him. So yeah, I like the jury call this guy wanted them to get in free agency. They didn't are in, sorry, at the trade deadline,

they didn't. They have a shot here, but by all accounts, they weren't interested in jewelry at all. Now, whether or not that was because they don't like the player or they or if he was just a rental and they weren't interested in rentals, I don't know. But I think Drury is a guy who Mariners fans aren't talking enough about. And there are other tradeoff, you know, Brandon Lau, Polanco, Jeff McNeil, it's just hard to see how the Mariners can make those deals happen. So, yeah, I really do think that the Mariners starting second basement next year is going to be either Colton Wong or Glaber Torres.

I just think they make the most sense. All right. Next question here. Oops. That's the wrong one. This is our final question of the day. Nebraska dude 74 asks, what do you think the baroners have to give up in return for Max Kepler? Max Kepler is a favorite of ours, Colby.

What do you think it's going to take to land him? He's got $8.5 million o to him this year than a $10 million club option next year. Yeah, not a ton. It's been pretty widely reported that the twins would like to trade Max Kepler. They have Byron Bucks and they have Alex Kirill off. They have Trevor Larnick. They are looking, they have Nick Gordon. They are looking to clear up some outfield space.

I think this is a spot where a Chris Flexen and a prospect type of deal makes some sense here. Both are due a little bit of money. The twins need back in rotation help. They want to clear Kepler off the roster. So it's kind of a major league for major league swap. I think it would probably still cost flexin and a pretty decent prospect. Maybe somebody in that. the, you know, 15, 10 to 15 range, uh, just because, you know, the twins can kind of go get a Chris

flexen in free agency if they want to, but the twins don't have unlimited funds either. Uh, so we'll see what they want to do with Kepler, but I, I really do think this is a good spot for like a flexin and, you know, Juan Pinto or, or Michael Arroyo or whatever, you know, pick a prospect. I don't care which one, uh, within reason. I think this is a good spot for that. Uh, I don't think Marcos is going to get. Marco would be the guy that would get that done. I think it would have to be flexing, but I think he's going to be reasonably cheap because, again,

the twins have made it pretty clear that they're looking to kind of move past Max Kepler. And I love Max Kepler as a possibility. You know, he's got tremendous power to his pole side. He's a guy who's baseball savages is red as red can be, which is good. And he's also a guy who's been hurt by the shift. You look at the expected numbers last year even. based on his batting ball profile, he should have hit like 260 with a 420 slug instead of what he did. It's just I think Kepler's going to have a year.

He's only 29, I believe, 30 maybe. I think he's going to have a year where he pops 30 home runs again. He's had one year where he hit 30 home runs. I think he's going to do it again sometime in the next two or three years. And you get gold glove defense out of him in right field. So I think he's a great fit for Seattle. Oh, and he's left-handed. Yeah, there you go.

So he led all right-fielders in Alts above average this season with 12 plus 12. So at the very least, you're getting that. You're getting a guy who walks a lot. So that's nice. And like Colby mentioned, the power upside is really something, right? Because, like, he only hit nine home runs this season. That's not going to happen again. It's just not going to happen.

I think there's a really good chance that Kepler, by the end of the year, is the guy who against right-handed pitching at least is sitting in like first or second because he's hitting 260 and he's getting on base, you know, 33, 34% of the time. And you've added a little, you know, a little bob to the top of your lineup and you can kind of go Julio, Kepler, Tay Oscar, you know, Wong, whatever it is, right? It doesn't really matter. But I think Kepler's that type of player. I really do. I buy into Kepler quite a bit. I know others aren't. aren't so sure and I get it. But I think Kepler's

going to be a, you know, three or four win player this next year. All right. Well, that's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Mariners podcast for Colby Pat Note. I'm Taday and Gazzalas. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Dan Gonzalez. That's D-A-N-ZL-Z and Colby at C-Pat-E-E-E-Pat-E-E-E-C-PAT-E.

You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. And thank you again for making us your first listen. For your next listen, check out the Lockdown Sports Today podcast. featuring the biggest stories of the day, plus instant reactions, big game recaps on the take of the day. It's available on the Odyssey app, YouTube, and wherever you get your podcast just like us.

And with that, have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you tomorrow. Peace.