Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - The 5 Most Valuable, Most Realistic Trade Chips in the Mariners' Organization

Starting point is 00:00:00 It's top five Tuesday. As determined by the wheel, Colby will give you his top five trade chips to the Mariners organization and I'll give you my top five baseball movies. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, sailors, it is Tuesday, November 12, 2024. This is Tedding Azales and Colby Patnaud for the Lockdown Marers Podcast. part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team, every day. Once again, it is top five Tuesday. The wheel has commanded Colby to give you his top five trade chips in the marriage organization. And I'm going to give you my top five baseball movies of all time at the end of the show. But before we do that, shout out to our title sponsor today.

Starting point is 00:00:52 Game Time. Download the GameTime app, create an account. Use the promo code Locked on MLB. That's LOC, KED, O N, MLB for $20 off your first purchase. And if you want to hear from me and Colby, more and help support the show check out our patreon all you have to do is click the link in the description of this episode so top five trade chips in the merri's organization there is a very easy way that you could go about this colby but uh we do want our listeners to actually come away from

Starting point is 00:01:19 this episode with something right so as per usual i assume you have set a bunch of parameters heading into this top five so tell us what those are and uh let's get into the list sure this is either the easiest list that you could ever make or it's impossible to do because if it's just what five mariners could Seattle get the most four in a trade then the answer is Julio followed by the four pitchers like end of list and then or Cal is probably number six maybe get a little bit more for Cal than Wu so there's really only a debate about like who number five is whether it's the last pitcher or cow but again

Starting point is 00:02:02 And that would be the whole episode. Just okay. And most of those guys, like, are essentially untouchable. Julio's untouchable. I think Gilbert is untouchable this winter. Cal's untouchable this winter. Like, most of those guys aren't like, don't even, they're not even worth discussing in trades. So, you know, but at the same time, it's like you only, do you only want to have like a major leaguer on your list?

Starting point is 00:02:27 Because then we're talking about like Luke Rayleigh and, you know, Randy or Rosarina. And I don't think Randy at Rosarena is going to get traded. Now, most of the Mariners aren't going to get traded. That's just how it works. So I kind of had to try and, you know, is it only minor leaguers? Is it only major leaguers? Do I just stay true to the like to the wheel, what it literally says where, you know, who are the five most, you know, what could you get for, you know, what five players could you get the most foreign trade? So I think what I, what I landed on ultimately is like, how about it's a mix of minor leaguers and major leaguers.

Starting point is 00:03:02 and it's guys who I would say have at least like a five to 10% chance of getting traded this winter. So like it's not Julio and Cal even though they'd be on the list. It's not Logan Gilbert. Like Gilbert gets traded this winter. I'd call that like a 1% chance. So it's not worth putting it on the list. So I think at least like a 5 to 10% chance I could see guys getting traded. And then it's just a mix of a couple major leaguers and some minor leaguers.

Starting point is 00:03:30 because if the Mariners are trying to, if they are trading, they're trying to add to their Major League roster, right? They're not selling these guys. So these are all pretty young guys, and I think they all have pretty good value on the trade market. So do you have any honorable mentions before we get into your top five? Michael Arroyo is one.

Starting point is 00:03:55 Somebody like Gregory Santos, possibly. maybe I pitched at all last year, like to any meaningful level, he'd probably be on the list. Randy Rosarena, I still think you can get something pretty nice for. Luke Rayleigh, probably more of a strong-side platoon bat

Starting point is 00:04:12 as how he'll be viewed, but you could probably get something decent for him. So, yeah, I mean, there's a few guys, but, yeah, it's mostly the honorable mention guys are part-time players, so they're not going to get you a ton, or they're players that you're, you know, writing into your everyday lineup. So you really don't want to trade them because it's hard to trade them and get better at the same time.

Starting point is 00:04:36 All right. So give us number five. Yeah, number five is Cole Young. He is close to Major League Ready. I don't think he's like opening day roster close. But the Mariners have already said that they plan to start him in AAA. So that would tell you that they think that Cole Young could have an impact as soon as this year. And, you know, statistically.

Starting point is 00:04:57 speaking what he did at Arkansas as the youngest bat there for most of the season. Pretty impressive stuff. Didn't blow the door, you know, didn't blow the doors off the hinges or anything like that, but really solid. He had his ups and his downs, as you would expect from a 20-year-old in AA. But overall, the final numbers are really good. He can play shortstop so he can stay up the middle. He's shortstop second baseman who should, when all is said and done, be, you know,

Starting point is 00:05:22 probably a 55-60 bat. And power will see probably 40. power, but could be 45 or even 50, who can also steal a couple bags here and there. Like, he's a good, solid prospect all around. And again, he's close to Major League Ready. That's a guy who, even though he doesn't have the ceiling of some of the other guys on this list, his floor is so high and he's so close to the majors that he should. And he also plays up the middle.

Starting point is 00:05:50 Well, I might add, he should quite a bit of weight in any trade package. Number four is another prospect. we're going with Lazaro Montez, who's ahead of Cole Young, despite being further away from the big leagues, and despite not playing anywhere near as valuable position as young, and this is an upside play, right? And as much as teams like safety,

Starting point is 00:06:12 and they, like, close to the big leagues, obviously, the closer to the big leagues you are, the higher your floor is. And Young's floor is certainly higher than Montez, but Montez's ceiling is, you know, 280, 30 home runs and possibly, you know, a fringe average corner outfielder might not even just be stuck at DH, you know, at least for the first couple years of his career. He had a very good season, really struggled when he got promoted to High A at 19 years old initially, but finished very strong. Probably starts the year next year at High A. Could make the jump to double A though. And I think that the back. here is I think a lot of teams would view the bat as potentially special like possibly a 60 grade bat and like a 70 power type of guy. And I think that along with his age and just his raw tools at the batter's box is going to carry a ton of weight in this in trade packages.

Starting point is 00:07:14 There might be some teams that prefer young because they're looking for more of a quick turnaround. But if you want upside, Montez over Young is the way to go. and Montez, again, not super far away from the big leagues. He'll almost certainly see AA at some point in 2025, which means a 2026 call-up at 21 years old is certainly not out of the question for Montez. So he's going to carry quite a bit of weight in any trade talks. So we'll get into your top three here, Chloe, in just a moment. But first, a reminder, this episode of the Locktime Airs podcast is brought to you by Game Time.

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Starting point is 00:09:16 And you're listening to the Locked-on Marries podcast. It is Top 5 Tuesday. Colby has given you his top five trade chips in the Marry's organization. coming in at number five, Cole Young, coming in at number four, Lizarra Montes. Now who's number three, Colby? Yeah, we'll go back to the Major League roster for number three. I'm going to go with Andres Munoz.

Starting point is 00:09:37 Now Munoz is probably not getting traded. We've talked about it a little bit here, how he's going to be valuable on the market and all of that. But then you also have to replace him in the, you know, he's your only high leverage bullpen arm right now. So, you know, it's tough for you as a contender to trade this guy, but could you actually trade him and get better as a result and, you know, maybe get a, an everyday type of bat form and then maybe an interesting prospect on top of that or something and kind of reshuffle a few things, get some more ammo and go out and replace Munoz. Like, if you're going to trust the Mariners to trade from any position and replace it relatively seamlessly, it'd probably be from the bullpen. And Munoz is a guy who's cost controlled. He's club controlled for the next few years.

Starting point is 00:10:29 He is one of the five or six best relievers in the American League. He's young. He gets strikeouts. He gets ground balls. Like he is, he's a high leverage reliever. And those guys are usually very expensive. And the Mariners gave him that extension early on when they acquired him. And it's paying off for him right now because Munoz is a guy who is a high leverage arm,

Starting point is 00:10:51 which every contender needs. every contender needs more high leverage arms. But he's also a guy that every contender can afford monetarily because he's not, unlike other high leverage options, he's not making $8, $10, $12, $15 million, like he probably would if he was on the open market. So I think Munoz is a guy who makes a ton of sense for a lot of teams to trade. It doesn't make a ton of sense for Seattle to trade him.

Starting point is 00:11:17 But is there like a 5 to 10% chance that they get a deal where they look at And they go, wow, we can add another guy to our, to our lineup. We can add a good bullpenar, maybe not quite high leverage, but we can add these two guys from Munoz and, you know, count or try and recreate Munoz in another, you know, in another mold or look differently. But can we replace his production while getting better at the major league level? It's possible.

Starting point is 00:11:46 Again, it's a very fine line to walk if you're the Mariners, but it's certainly possible that they could pull that off. And so at that point, Munoz, yeah, he's going to carry a lot away. Look at what Edwin Diaz got the Mariners. You know, you look at what two months of Carlos Estevez got the angels, like high leverage relievers, very valuable, no matter when they're traded. And the fact that Munoz, again, is making, I think, like $3 million this year is going to be going to give him mass appeal across the entire game.

Starting point is 00:12:18 And again, he's young. You get him for a couple more years. So it's, it really is an interesting thought. Like what could the Mariners actually get for Munoz? Probably quite a bit. Yeah, it's hard not to be enticed by that. But again, it's like, all right, well, what do I do with the bullpen from that point forward? You know, their hit rate this year wasn't quite as high as it was in the path.

Starting point is 00:12:40 They did get Snyder, you know, great. And both was pretty good, but not high leverage. You know, they whipped on Vargas. They whipped, you know, on. On co-ar, although that one's not exactly their fault. But yeah, pretty interesting to think about what you could actually get from Munoz. And yeah, it absolutely could make sense. There could be an offer out there where you get better from trading your best reliever.

Starting point is 00:13:08 And then you just kind of have to adjust on the fly and kind of change your plan to address your new hole that you created to fill another one. But Munoz, he would bring back quite a haul. Yeah, 100%. All right. So number two. Number two on my list is Colt Emerson. He is the best prospect in the Mariners system. I don't think it's particularly close.

Starting point is 00:13:31 He's the best prospect in the Mariners system since Julio. I do think that he will, by the end of this year, he will be top five in all of baseball. Like, he is a special dude. He can play shortstop. He can play third base. Like, he's going to play a premium position for you. You know, the hit tool is. is already well above average at 19 years old.

Starting point is 00:13:53 The power in-game power will see if it becomes average or if it gets to above average to plus. So like there's a shot here that Emerson is a 60 hit, 60 power guy who can play shortstop. That's incredibly rare. He's 19 years old. Now the thing that's kind of holding down his value a little bit is that he's only played in about, what, 50 professional baseball games?

Starting point is 00:14:16 Like not a ton of playing time for Emerson yet. He's been hurt, been hurt a couple times. Nothing major there. It's not like he's, you know, ruptured in Achilles and, you know, a lot of really bad injuries, just a lot of little stuff that's added up. But the ceiling is high. This is an all-star caliber up-the-middle player who has a really high floor of a guy who hits, I don't know, 15 home runs, hits 260, plays really good defense at shortstop or third base.

Starting point is 00:14:43 And again, he's just 19 years old. There's still a lot of development here to do. But he is a guy who also. So could be on the fast track to the big leagues. He'll start next year, I would assume at Everett. And then he has a good shot to finish the year at, at AA Arkansas. So he is relatively close to the big leagues. It's not like Felman Celestin, who might be more tooled up,

Starting point is 00:15:05 but is three years behind Emerson. So, yeah, I think Colt Emerson, if you're, if you're including Emerson in a trade package, you're getting a star. Like, that's the only way. And you're probably getting multiple years of a star. a star. So like I'm not trading Colt Emerson for one year of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Don't tell me they can extend them. That doesn't count. That is not how that works. But whatever. You're probably getting a star and multiple years of that star. You're trading Colt

Starting point is 00:15:31 Emerson. And that's a lot. Like obviously that's a lot. So Emerson is far and away the best prospect in the Mariners system. He's one of the best prospects in baseball. And he will net you something very, very good if you do in fact decide that you should you should shop him. So with all that said, there's actually someone ahead of him. Who is that? Barely, because I think the odds that he's traded are basically like four or five percent, but whatever, splitting hairs here. I think it's Brian Wu or Bryce Miller, take your pick.

Starting point is 00:16:08 The mayors actually do end up trading one of the two young starters. They're going to get, you know, a dump truck backed up into their parking lot. and just spill over with talent because Wu, like Miller probably has more value than Wu, but I think it's more likely the Mayors will trade Wu than Miller, even though I don't think it's likely they trade either of them,

Starting point is 00:16:30 if that all makes sense. So, yeah, I mean, like, if you think, this is really Miller or Wu, I went with Wu. This is a, these are two mid-rotation starters, at least, who are one full season

Starting point is 00:16:45 into their big league careers. They still have, four years of club control plus. And Miller's probably going to finish top 10 in the Siyang this year. Wu had he pitched all year and pitched like he did in August and September. He would also be top 10 Sanyang guy. The stuff is all there. They throw a ton of strikes.

Starting point is 00:17:07 A guy like Miller, there's very little injury risk relative to other pitchers at his age and his workload. Wu, obviously there's a little bit more risk there. He's already missed time a couple different times. He's been on the IL. but this guy is special. And again, you're just scratching the surface and you get these guys for their prime. And their prime years will be spent entirely under club control at well below market value. The most valuable asset in this game is good, controllable, cheap starting pitching.

Starting point is 00:17:40 The Mariners have it in spades. And so could they trade Wool or Miller? Yes. What would it take to get them? well, we're sitting here and I'm telling you that I wouldn't trade him for Jaron Duran straight up. So there you go. Right.

Starting point is 00:17:54 Like it would cost so much. The cost is so astronomically high that I don't think any team can actually do it. I don't think any team could actually afford it where it would make sense for the Mayors to trade him. But I do think that there's a shot that they would try. Like the Mayors would shop these guys, one of these guys, if they thought it was the best way to add. impact and again you're not training these guys for a rental uh you're probably not training these guys for a two year uh solution unless that two years is like you know well aaron judge especially with

Starting point is 00:18:29 like miller for example right this guy that might finish top 10 and a l sigh young voting this year and he's still two years per yard like i don't think there's a cost for that right that's like that's realistic right that i can think of like we've never seen a guy like that get traded before not in a long long time um yeah am i missing someone like i can't think of someone that finished top 10 in sly young voting or at least close i mean he had that level of a year right whether or not he actually winds up in the top 10 or whatever is negligible to me like that's the kind of year that bryce miller had though you get him for five years yeah They'll probably be super two, so whatever.

Starting point is 00:19:16 You have to pay him one extra year of arm. Still going to be a bargain. Sure. Yeah. Maybe he's one year pre-Arb, but still. Yeah. I mean, I don't know. Like, Kintana got traded for like Eloy and.

Starting point is 00:19:30 Oh, yeah, that's right. Kintana. Yeah. But he, I think, only had three years of club control left. Dylan Seas got traded, but he had two years of club control left. coming off of a bad season. So yeah, in terms of like the big young stud pitchers who got traded,

Starting point is 00:19:50 none of them that I can think of had five years of club control and were already as established as somebody like Miller. Like pitchers with five years like Michael Panetta, cool. He wasn't as established as Bryce Miller when he was traded. Yeah. Because Miller has essentially two full seasons of, you know, data out there at the major league level.

Starting point is 00:20:11 but he's only getting credit for one full season, which means you get him for the extra year in arbitration. So yeah, he is, both him and Wu would take astronomical returns for the Mariners to even consider it. But they might get it. They might pitching, young pitching in particular, cheap pitching, that quality is the best thing you can possibly have in this game. All right.

Starting point is 00:20:38 Well, that concludes your list, Colby. So your top five trade tips in the Marys Organization, number five, Cole Young, number four, Lizarra Montas, number three, Andres, Munoz, number two, Colt Emerson, and number one, either Brian Wu or Bryce Miller. So it is my time to shine now. Top five baseball movies coming your way. Just a moment, but first, a reminder, this episode of the Lockdown Marys podcast is brought to you by Fandul. Get ready to tackle the NFL action with Fandul, America's number one sportsbook, because right now new customers can bet $5 and get $150 back in bonus bets if you win. The Fandual Sportsbook app gives you everything you need to place live bets on the NFL all in one place.

Starting point is 00:21:29 So when you get a hunch in the middle of the game, you can check out the latest stats, view live play-by-play and so much more on the same page where you place your bets. Just visit Fandual.com to join today. You'll get started with $150 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 bet. That's Fandul.com. Never waste a hunch and make every moment more with Fandual, an official sportsbook partner of the NFL. And you're listening to the Lockdown Marries podcast. It is Top 5 Tuesday.

Starting point is 00:22:00 Colby just gave you his top five trade chips in the Marys organization. Now it's my turn to give you my top five baseball movies of all time. this is a list that Colby and I have have done a couple of times on our Patreon show actually and I always flip-flop a little bit with my top five it's usually like the five same movies but my rankings of them do tend to change from time to time it's really it's kind of recency bias it's like what did I watch recently what do I continue to go to what do I find myself continuing to go to all that good stuff so let's go over some honorable mentions here first.

Starting point is 00:22:41 Hardball, R-I-P-G baby, of course. I wanted to put Ken Burns baseball on here, but it's more of a series. Documentaries count. It's more of a series than a movie, so. Like, I think you'd have to do like a specific episode to count it as a movie. So I'm going Ken Burns baseball, the fourth inning. Right, yeah. Oh, okay.

Starting point is 00:23:02 That's oddly specific, but, yeah, 42. It's a great doc series. You guys haven't seen Ken Burns baseball. watch it. I do every winner. Absolutely. I'm going to as well this winter. Forty-two. Live stream? We should. Live watch along. We should. That would be fun. They give a shout out to the Yakima Pippins. There we go. There we go. In that, Doc. So, yeah. So, side note, if you want to be absolutely terrified and not be able to sleep tonight, type in Yakima Pippins mascot on Google images. Ooh, yeah, don't do that. Don't do that. All right. So 42. RAP Chadwick The

Starting point is 00:23:42 The Natural Field of Dreams That's going to get me in trouble With a lot of people I think yeah Filled the Dreams got left off the list I mean like you could have said number five And I'll be like okay

Starting point is 00:23:54 It's got five It's number six It's number six All right If you want to look at it It's number five That I'm going to absolutely hate I know it

Starting point is 00:24:04 Number five is a movie That you think is overrated It's the sandlot And I do think... Definitely not better than Field of Dreams. I think it is. No, that's such a like a millennial thing of you to do. Again, you know how I feel about the Fourth of July scene?

Starting point is 00:24:21 It's like the best baseball scene ever. And I love the characters and I love James Earl Jones. Sure. Like, it's all iconic. I don't think it's... Fine. It's not better than Field of Dreams. I don't think it's the best movie.

Starting point is 00:24:33 I mean, iconic scenes and characters with James Earl Jones. I know. Yeah, I know. I know. Yeah, no, I get it. I get it.

Starting point is 00:24:41 I just come back to the sand lot more than Phil to dreams. I do. I'm just, I'm just, it's the honest to God, your truth. I'm just saying like, Field of Dreams even has like the baseball movie go.

Starting point is 00:24:51 It's got Kevin Kossner, right? I know. I know. But I don't continue to go back to, I don't continue to go back to Field of Dreams. I know. I know I'm going to catch heat.

Starting point is 00:25:00 I'm going to catch heat in the comments for this as well. I don't care. Phil the Dreams is number six. It's number six. Yeah. There's no way. There are five baseball movies better than Field of Dreams. I'll say this,

Starting point is 00:25:10 Field of Dreams is not close to number one. So if you're like, Field of Dreams is the best baseball movie ever. So there you go. There you go. Anyway, so the Sandlot, I don't think it's the best baseball movie of all time,

Starting point is 00:25:19 like a lot of people regarded it as. But I do really enjoy it. And yeah, so it's number five. Number four, Moneyball. Yes, it's not as in depth as the book and yada,

Starting point is 00:25:32 yada, yada, yada, yada. It's still a really good movie. I really enjoy Moneyball. I don't get the people who like hate the movie because it's like no as good as the book it's like the book is essentially a spreadsheet. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:25:47 Yeah. Like how do you make that entertaining? Yeah. I mean, you know, you had to sell this movie to a to a casual audience, right? So you can't just sell to baseball fans only either. Like you have to get people into watch it and they did. I think they did find a pretty good balance with it though. Sure. There are some things you can look at in nitpick, but like there are people like, oh, it's so terrible.

Starting point is 00:26:11 And obviously some of it is embellished like at any other biopic, you know, whatever. But I really enjoy Moneyball. Number three, a league of their own is a fantastic movie. Great cast. Characters, great. Story. Yeah. Story is amazing.

Starting point is 00:26:28 Yeah. Love that movie. Number two, the greatest baseball comedy of all time, major league. I love Major League. But to have it ahead of Field of Dreams, yeah, that's fine, actually. Major League's awesome. Yeah, Major League is incredible. That's great.

Starting point is 00:26:46 Oh, it's great. Yeah. Now, technically, number one is also a bit of a comedy. I mean, there's comedic elements to it, right? But I consider Major League because Major League is strictly just a comedy through and through. There's no drama or like that. Yeah, that's the best. I mean, there's like drama, but, you know.

Starting point is 00:27:05 in a way that a comedy does. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. It's a classic sports movie. So I consider that still the best baseball comedy of all time. But number one is Bullterham. You know, do I really need to give you a reason? Bolt Durham's the goat.

Starting point is 00:27:24 It's classic. Got Costner in it. Yeah. Iconic character. Yeah. You get the minor league lifestyle in it. Yeah. Love it.

Starting point is 00:27:35 Nucle lusch. You get the crazy pitching coach. The mound visit scene. Yeah. Iconic. All of Crash Davis's little sains like, you know, Crash getting tossed after the close play at home. That's iconic.

Starting point is 00:27:50 Yeah. The lollygagger speech. Like, oh, man, it is. It's an incredible movie. It's a great movie. So there you go. That's my top five. Just to reiterate the Sandlot, Moneyball, a league of their own,

Starting point is 00:28:04 Major League, Bold. Durham. Field of Dreams is not on the list because I exist just to piss you off, specifically Colby. Apparently. Yeah. So that's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marys podcast for Colby Pat Node. I'm Tiding Azales. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Marrers. You can follow me at Tidingazales and Colby at C-Pat 11, that's C-Pat-1-1. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby, and the show at Lock Locked-on Mariners. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.

Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - The 5 Most Valuable, Most Realistic Trade Chips in the Mariners' Organization

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