Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - The Julio Show: Is It Time For the Mariners Star to Win MVP With Ohtani Out of the AL?

Episode Date: March 14, 2024

Ty and Colby wrap up their Mariners position preview series with a look ahead to Julio Rodríguez's third year in the big leagues.Ask us questions!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!RobinhoodRobinhood has the only IRA that gives you a 3% boost on every dollar you contribute when you subscribe to Robinhood Gold. Now through April 30th, Robinhood is even boosting every single dollar you transfer in from other retirement accounts with a 3% match. Available to U.S. customers in good standing. Robinhood Financial LLC (member SIPC), is a registered broker dealer.Amazon Fire TVFire TV recently created Fire TV Channels to deliver a constant supply of the latest videos from your favorite sports brands, all for free. That includes all of us at Locked On and most of the big pro leagues and college conferences as well. To Learn More, visit www.amazon.com/LockedOnFireTV PrizePicksGo to PrizePicks.com/lockedonmlb and use code lockedonmlb for a first deposit match up to $100! eBay MotorsWith all the parts you need at the prices you want, it’s easy to turn your car into the MVP and bring home that win. Keep your ride-or-die alive at EbayMotors.com. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase. FanDuelNew customers, join today and you’ll get TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in BONUS BETS if your first bet of FIVE DOLLARS or more wins. Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Is this the year Julio wins MVP? We'll discuss that and more coming up here on the Locked on Marrars podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked on Mariner's. Your daily Seattle Mariner's podcast, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Oh, hoys, sailors. It is Thursday, March 14th, 2024.

This is Tiding Gonzalez and Colby Pat node for the Lockdown Marriss podcast. Thank you so much for making us your first. Listen, subscribe, like, and turn on alerts. if you're watching on YouTube or subscribe and leave a five-star review on your preferred podcast platform if you like what you hear. And if you're part of the crew and rock with us every single day, let us know in the comments below.

We'd love to hear from you. And if you want to hear from us even more, please consider sending up for our Patreon. You can now get a free seven-day trial to check out the show. The link as well as our social accounts is in the description of this episode. It is time to finish our position preview series for the 24 Mariners. We're going to cap things off with one Mr.

Julio Rod Rieges. Now, Colby, looking back on Julio's 2023 campaign, very polarizing year. Incredible August that, frankly, we may never see again from any player, let alone Julio. But outside of that month, kind of a struggle at times. So what are your expectations for him in year three? I think when you look at Julio's season as a whole, you look at 5.9F war, you know, 32 homers. he went 30-30. And we're sitting here kind of like,

you know, 100 RBIs, 100 runs, 30 home runs, 30 steals. He cut his strikeout rate down. He was significantly improved defensively to the fact where he's a gold glove caliber center fielder now. He was fourth in a new VP voting. Right.

And we look at that and we go, you know, kind of left a lot on the table. And like, I think that just speaks to just how freakish Julio is. That he's just, he's a superstar. This is what superstars do.

They get graded on a different scale than everybody else. And Julio last year, as good as he was and as many improvements has he made, he was 20% worse at the plate than he was the year before. And in particular, he was pretty bad in those big situations, you know, especially in the middle of the year, bases loaded one out, Julio coming up, that should be runs. And too many times it was a double play or it was a strikeout because he was swinging out of his shoes and chasing sliders that were, you know,

eight inches off the plate. he couldn't do anything with those pitches. So it wasn't up and down year for Julio, a lot of down. The highs were, you know, the best player we've ever seen. Like that's the ceiling of Julio's season last year. And the lows were that he was, he got moved down in the order. Like, he got moved down to five and six for a couple days. Like, it was not smooth sailing for Julio.

It wasn't as consistent as you would like. And again, just by WRC plus standards, he was 20% worse at the plate last year than he was in his rookie year. So in a lot of ways, it was a step forward year for Julio. Defensively, he took a huge step. Again, 30, 30, 100 RBIs, 100 runs, like All Star, fourth and MVP voting, like huge leap forward in some ways, some steps back. And so it's, it's kind of tough to grade Julio's season only because you have to grade it using a different scale than everybody else's last year. So, you know, it's one of those things where like if you say, Julio wasn't as good as he probably needed to be last year, people get defensive.

And I mean, they have a point. Like, look at the numbers. Julio is really, really good last year. So it's just one of those things where it's like we have to remember when we talk about Julio in particular, we have to use a different scale than everybody else because he breaks the normal scale. Like he breaks it. So there's really no point in trying to use that scale to grade what he did last year and what he could do this year and what he needs to do this year, which is the point of today's show.

Right. I was very critical of Fulio at times last year. Some of the criticisms though are a bit unfair because you're placing a lot upon a very young player. So it was just year or two for him last year. And yeah, he was incredible in his rookie season and the expectations for him were through the roof. I think also a little bit of it is he's guilty

by association of that offense and having to make up for a lot of his deficiencies, especially late in games, right? That's fair. We see, you know, runners at scoring position, base is loaded late in the game mariner's need a base knock here comes Julio Julio's supposed to be the guy right Julio's supposed to be the hero he's supposed to be the savior and he doesn't come through and it's a gut punch when that happens

they put a lot on Julio a lot was riding on Julio the roster was built in a way where Julio had to carry everything and I think this year this year not as much I think this year Julio has a lot more support port, especially in that, you know, three, four, five range of the lineup. And he has guys that he should be able to trust a bit more where, look, I don't need to put the ball over the wall or else we're screwed, basically.

Because I feel like, especially, you know, once we got deeper into the season, it became more and more apparent, like, you can't count on Teoscaranadas for anything. You can't count on Eugenio Swares for anything. that Julio just felt like he had to do a lot that he had to make up for a lot of that.

So hopefully this year he doesn't feel that way and I think situationally speaking Brant Brown should help him a little bit as well just kind of be a voice in his ear in certain moments like that like hey we don't need to do too much here and when Brant Brown was speaking about

situational hitting and not everything needs to be a home run when he made his radio appearance a couple months ago. I think he was speaking directly about Julio. Because, again, that was a big issue for Julio this past year. And so I think Julio recognizes those issues. I know that he's talked about, you know, having kind of a down year last year. I think he recognizes some of those issues that he had

over the course of the season. And I think this is a very motivated player. And I'm really, really excited to see the jump from year two to year three. And I mean, dude, the sky is the freaking limit with the sky. As we're going to talk about a little bit more here once we get into the MVP discussion, like he has the potential to be one of the best to ever do it. And I mean, he's already on that trajectory as it, even with the down year, quote unquote, that he had this past season.

Essentially, if he does what he's done the first two years for the next eight years, he'll be a lock for the Hall of Fame before he's 30 years old. Yeah. like that's and that's if he doesn't get any better than he already is right which i think we know he's going to so uh yeah we'll see you know kind of what happens when he doesn't feel like he has to do everything uh when he's up at the plate and when he trusts the guys behind him to get the job done if he if he doesn't um and we'll see what happens he's he's made a made a tweak to his uh his setup and and he's a little more upright and uh you know the swing the load is a little bit shorter so

he's a little quicker to the ball. So we'll see what happens with all of that. We haven't seen him a ton in spring for one reason or another. But, you know, obviously we're going to see him quite a bit. Hopefully, fingers crossed in the regular season because also, you know, for no other reason, A, Julio's awesome. But also the mirrors don't really have a backup center field option. So Julio's going to play a lot.

He's going to play a lot as he should. And hopefully, you know, all the little things that we talked about, they just add up to an explosive season. But Julio, I think, is probably the safest bet in baseball to be a four and a half, five-win player. Yeah, because even his down years, he's going to play above average defense in center field. He's going to steal a lot of bags. He's going to hit a lot of homers. So, yeah, I think, you know, Julio last year left a little on the table, but was still very freaking good.

And if he had a better supporting cast, you know, we, probably want to be talking this much about it. No. All right. So we're going to talk about the possibility of him adding some more hardware to his trophy cabinet in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode

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Shh. So speaking of the product, big part of that product is, of course, Julio Rodriguez, who we're talking about today. 80 grade segue. Thank you. Thank you. Very impressive. Appreciate the support, friend.

Thanks. Always. So, Julio finished fourth an MVP voting last year, like we mentioned. Is this the year that he wins MVP? Because now a certain someone that was playing for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for the last five, six years, now in the National League, Joe Otani, he is no longer here. So that would seem to open. the door for someone like Julio to win MVP, but there's also

still Aaron Judge, Juan Soto's now in the American League. Bobby Wood Jr. is coming off of a great year. Gunner Henderson, Adley Rutchman. There's a lot of really good players in the American League. Yeah, Corey Seeger. The list goes on and on and on, but like we talked about, Julio's a very special player. Do you think this could be the year that he actually wins AL MVP?

Every year for the next 10 years is the year that Julio could win the MVP. Like, you just never know when it's going to happen. But Julio definitely has like eight, nine, 10 win season in him somewhere. So, yeah, because like basically whatever stat line I give you and ask if that's far fetched for Julio, the answer is no. I mean, it almost has to be because you're going to tell me there's something he can't do on the baseball field.

Okay. Considering what he's already done at 23 years old. So yes, you get absolutely. win it this year. In fact, he's a pretty good bet. If you go on Fandul, he's going off at a thousand, plus a thousand to win the MVP this year. That's third highest odds in the American League. I think that's a pretty good bet to make if you were so inclined. But yeah, it's certainly possible this could be the year. You know, he's already got that profile now. He's definitely already on everybody's watch list, which unfortunately does help quite a bit with the voters when

you're, you know, being watched all year. And I think, you know, part of this, unfortunately, is also going to come down to team success. If the Mariners win the American League West, that's certainly going to improve his odds, even if Julio is, you know, the clear winner. If Julio is the best player and the Mariners don't win the AOS,

they might not give it to them. Like, it's unfortunate that these things get voted on the way they do. But, yeah, absolutely. Julio can win the most valuable player this year. There's really no question about it. He can win it pretty much every year if everything clicks. So now what does he have to do to win it? That's kind of where the discussion gets really interesting.

Okay. So let's talk about that. What do you think Julio has to accomplish this year in order to win? Because again, you know, he's competing with Aaron Judge. She's competing with Juan Soto. He's competing with Jordan Alvarez. Like, what type of year does he need to, you know, go 40-40? you have 40 homers, 40 stolen bases this year?

He might. If the Yankees are good and Judge and Soto are good, then Julio has to, I mean, it can't be a competition. And even then, it still might not be enough. I think we remember the Mike Trout and the Miguel Cabrera MVP discussion where Trout was clearly the best player in all of baseball, and he still lost because he didn't make the playoffs. and, you know, Cabrera hit for the triple crown, and that apparently means something.

So, yeah, if both those guys are good and the Yankees are also good, then Julio's got to be great, and the Mariners have to be good. So I think, you know, as close to 40, 40 as you can get, I think he's got to hit 280, 360, 550, something like that with, you know, the same defense he brought to the table last year. So, yeah, I think he doesn't have to be August Julio for an entire year because, first of all, that's the greatest season of all time. Like, it's better than Barry Bond sitting 73 homers. If he does what he did in August for six months, forget about it.

It's the greatest single season of all time. He's going to be like a 15-win player. So it doesn't have to do that, but he does have to be very good. I think he's got to get close to 40-40. I think he's got to continue to play really good defense. You know, he's got to, I think he's got to show up in like the home run derby. He's got to do those little things that shouldn't really matter, but they do. you know like Julio won

rookie of the year because of his performance in the homerunned derby that's what clinched it for him if you hadn't had that it probably would have been a pretty close race between him and Natalie not that it should have been but it might have been so yeah I think it's about that moment solidified himself as a star on the national scale yes exactly that's when people

like who don't even pay attention to baseball were like who's this Julio guy like you remember the tweets like Steph Curry is tweeting about Julio that day and for it to happen in Hollywood and all that that was a career changing moment for Julio for sure you know it'd be nice to we wins one at some point but sure you know have the one good around and then kind of get screwed by the by the set by the set up yeah by the

format but sure uh I think Julio you know making an all-star team performing in the all-star game maybe you know another home run derby performance and then as unfortunate as is when we get to September and you're hopefully battling the Astros or the Rangers for the American League West Julio needs a Heisman moment, right? He needs the big hit. He needs the walk off home run. He needs the diving catch. And he's probably going to need a couple of them.

So not only does Julio have to produce, but unfortunately because of the team he plays for in its location, relative to where most of the voters think, you know, the world ends. He has to do things that people on the national scale can't ignore. It's impossible to ignore. His bar to win MVP is significantly higher than that of Soto or Judge. Right. because those guys play for the Yankees.

And we'd like to pretend that's not a thing anymore. Absolutely still is. It still is. Is it lessened? Yes. I think it's not as big of a thing as it was, you know, 15 years ago.

But it's still definitely there. And, you know, pretty much every game the Yankees plays on like ESPN. So when you're on a national broadcast, those moments seem bigger than they actually are. And as we know, the Mariners will never be on ESPN ever again, apparently. They'll never be Sunday,

game of the week, ever again. So remind me the last time they were on Sunday night baseball. Mariners legend Steve Seashack had a little hiccup and they lost on a walk off wild pitch to the Cubs. Actually, I think it was a squeeze bunt wild pitch tie at squeeze bun to win. John Lesser. Was it John Lund? I thought it was Travis Wood.

I think it was probably would play left field for an inning and that's kind of like the thing. I remember Travis was John Lester. Okay. So yeah, it wasn't great, but it was a great game for the game. the casual fan. And, you know, the Mariners just silly, the silly ESPN. The Mariners only have Julio and Kirby and Luis and Cal and J.P. Crawford and Gilbert and not enough star power to put Dominic Canzone. Cade Marlowe, sure. You know, the good Dominic Canzone, Kay Marlowe. Yeah. So, Leo's got to do all that stuff and he's got to perform in the few chances he gets

in like the big moments where everybody's watching. He's got to perform. And Honestly, in order for him to get those moments, the rest of his team, it's have to be pretty good. And the Mariners have to be fighting for something meaningful. And I think that's the American League West. I'm not saying it's impossible for Julio to win if the Mariners don't win the ALS. But I think if they do, Julio's going to win it, assuming that he's had even remotely what the type of season we think he can have. Well, and that's going to be a, that would be a huge national story, right? Mariners win their first division title in what, 23 years?

Yeah, that's a pretty big new story that, you know, Julio's, of course, going to be most prominently attached to. So, you know, we've talked a lot about the storylines, the really exciting storylines heading into the season, like the pitching staff, you know, that rotation, how nuts that rotation could be, how nuts this bullpen could be at full strength, you know, the depth they've built on this roster, you know, J.P. Crawford and Cal Raleigh taking another step forward, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. but the most exciting possibility still is this overarching possibility that Julio could just bust out and be a 7, 8, 9, 10 win player all of a sudden.

Because it's just, it could happen at any given time. He is that talented and it feels like he's right on the cusp of doing that. Right. I mean, and if he does do that, you know, from a, you know, forget the national narrative for a minute. If he does do that, it takes a lot of pressure off of some of the other questions the Mariners have on their roster. And it allows you to more easily absorb a Mitch Garber injury or a, you know, a Cal Raleigh regression or a JP Crawford regression or whatever, right? Whatever might happen could go wrong. Julio breaking out in a way that we know he's capable of covers that and makes it much easier to absorb.

So Julio is unique in that he can cover up for a lot of. your warts and you hope he doesn't have to. You hope that you've built a good enough team that when Julio struggles, it's not the end of your season, right? So we'll see. But Julio at the end of the day, absolutely. We saw it. We've already seen it.

He can absolutely carry the team for months at a time when he doesn't have a lot of help. But if you can give him that little bit of help, I think his numbers will improve just because of, you know, lineup protections kind of overblown sometimes. But I think just taking the pressure off of him. being like, I've got Garber, I've got Hanager, I've got, you know, Cal, I've got this. Like, I don't have to be, like if I fail, it's not like we just lost the game, right? There are guys who I trust behind me to get this done. And like you said at the beginning, didn't really have that last year.

So I think just taking some of that pressure off is going to help Julio take the next step forward. All right. So we're going to talk more about the defense in just a moment. But first reminder, this episode of the Lockdown Airs podcast is brought to you by prize picks. Football season may be over, but the action on the floor is heating up. Whether it's tournament season or the fight for playoff home court, there is no shortage of high-stakes basketball moments this time of year. Get in on the excitement with prize picks, America's number one fantasy sports app,

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for making us your first listen as we preview Julio's 2024 season. Talked about Last year and him taking the next step this year, the potential for winning MVP. Let's talk a little bit about the glove because there's some concerns about this corner outfield situation. We talked about that a little bit yesterday. Is Julio going to have to cover a lot of ground consistently this year, or are you not as concerned as maybe some others? Was the outfield defense significantly better in the summer last year when we were waiting for Kellanick to come back?

Was it really? No. Rayleigh's actually better than Tay Oscar by like a mile. He's better than Dom Kanzone. Like, Rayleigh's going to help you in one of the corners. And then we'll see what happens in the other corner. Like,

not ideal, right? Obviously, you know, Hanager and Kanzone playing a lot in the outfield. Not ideal defensively. So I don't think it's a huge deal for Julio specifically. because he had to do it last year. I mean, there were chunks of the season where Teosca Hernandez was just awful

and Julio had to cover for him. So I think he's going to be fine going Gloveside. I think he's going to have plenty of help going to his right to the left centerfield gap. And Julio can cover that. Like, we know that Julio can do it. And there's only so much a center fielder can cover for anyways. So unless you're like the elite of the elite defense,

like Byron Buxton, a fully healthy Byron Buxton, doubles are going to be doubles. You know, like there's very little that there's very little help that can be given to Julio on his flanks. And again, since he only really has to cover for one of them most days, and probably only for a chunk of the game until Dylan Moore goes in the game or, you know, Cade Marlow or whoever, right, comes, you know, off the bench to play right field for the last couple of innings, which I assume will happen quite often.

I don't think that I'm concerned about Julio having to cover more ground than he can than it's reasonable to expect. And I think, you know, Julio was great last year. He was good his rookie year. So now the question is, is he an elite center fielder or is he merely an above average one? Because last year he was elite. In his rookie year, he was above average. So which one is it? Does he fall somewhere in the middle?

Right. If it's elite defense again, then you're fine. Your outfield defense will be good enough. If it's above average or somewhere in the middle, there might be a couple balls here and there that probably need to get caught. That won't be. So it's just one of those things. Julio can really help his corner guys,

but he can't cover for them entirely. Basically, nobody in baseball can. Right. uh, Julio, despite being elite in center field last year, did not win the gold of love,

of course. You know, Kevin Kiermeyer had a really good year last year. Like, don't want to discredit him, but, but yeah, um,

Julio was, was more than deserving of that, uh, of that award as well. Um, so Julio goes down, right? Knock on wood,

first of all, just for any sort of period of time. But if it's more short term, because we know what the answer is. If it's a long-term injury, I mean, you know, nothing against Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford and the rest of the players on this roster, but season's probably over if O'Leo goes down for an extended period of time. And by extended period of time, I'm talking like most of the season, if not the entire season, right?

But if it's just more short term, who plays center field for this team? Is it Dylan Moore? I hope not. Well, what's the alternative? It's Cade Marlowe. Right. Marlowe's the alternative. Now, does that mean that, you know, Dylan Moore won't ever play it?

No, he probably would, particularly against lefties. He'd probably get the start, which, again, not ideal. Also, Luke Rayleigh has some experience in center field, and he's not awful out there. I think people look at Luke Rayleigh. He's kind of a stocky guy, and they just kind of assume, like, oh, he's just kind of a plugger out there. He's not. He can move. And he's, you know, more than capable of handling center field once a week if you need to.

And if Julio were to go down for something more long term, Luke Rayley would get some reps there too. But the answer is Cade Marlow. He's the guy. He should be average-ish in center field. He's pretty good in a corner. And then you just kind of play matchup. And you just have to accept that your center field defense, like, it's going to take a blow. Just like everything else about that position is going to be an issue.

So, you know, we'll see. depending on when it happens, is Michael A. Taylor still floating around out there? He might be. That would be the obvious choice. But assuming we're only talking about who's actually on the roster because this will happen in season and not, you know,

while there's still some free agents out there. Cade Marlow is the answer. Cade Marlowe is the number two center fielder, which is kind of funny because he's not making the opening day roster. So it's going to be some combination of Marlowe, Rayleigh, and more. maybe Haggerty, maybe Samad Taylor. You can probably do that.

So yeah, but I think first and foremost, it's Cade Marlowe is the number two center fielder in the org right now. So yeah, I think Marlowe and then Dylan Moore probably get the first crack at it. All right. Well, that is going to do it for our show. Let us know in the comments below. What are your expectations from Julio Rodriguez this year? You think he's going to win MVP?

You think he's going to win Gold Glove? Let us know. Thank you so much for joining. us here on the lockdown mariner's podcast for colby patnode i'm ty dang gonzalez be sure to give us a follow on twitter at l0 underscore mariners you can follow me at ty dane gonzolice and colby at cpad 11 that's cpat 1 1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode thank you again for making us your first listen have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time peace