Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - The Mariners' Playoff Hopes Are All But Gone... So What Now?

Starting point is 00:00:00 A lot of you would argue we could have done this a long time ago, but after yet another series lost to the Angels, we can finally lay the 2024 Mariners to rest, correct? I'll answer that and more coming up here on the Lockdown Marries podcast. Colby, edit. You are Locked on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked On Podcast Network,

Starting point is 00:00:26 your team every day. Ahoy, sailors, it is Monday, September 2nd, 2024. This is Tadeng Azales and Colby Patnaud for the Lockdown Marrists podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team, every day. On today's show, we're going to be opening up the mailbag like we do here every Monday. But before we get into your questions, shout out to our title sponsor today. FanDuel, now through September 22nd, all FanDuel customers can bet $5 and get a three-week free trial of NFL Sunday ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV. VisitFandul.com to get started.

Starting point is 00:00:58 And if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, check out our Patreon. The link is in the description. And you can sign up for a free. seven day trial. Chum the hammerhead is going to kick us off here on Mailbag Monday. They want to know simply is there any possible chance we make the playoffs? Mathematically. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:01:20 Realistically? I mean, you've watched this baseball team, right? Colby, do you have a more positive outlook on this thing following this weekend than I do? I mean, no, not really. You didn't get any help from the Royals. They got mopped, which may have opened the door for you to pick up and be a serious contender for that last wild card spot. But unfortunately, you lost two of three. So that pretty much, you know, the Royals getting swept in four just ended up not meaning that much to you in your backdoor attempt at making the playoffs.

Starting point is 00:01:57 So, yeah, could you do it? Sure. Is it possible? Yeah, it's possible. Is it pragmatic? no, is it likely? No. You just put yourself in a position where basically the only way you're going to get into the playoffs right now, you have to do something like, I think it was the 20-21 Cardinals, maybe the 22 Cardinals, where they just, in late September, they just won like 18 games in a row.

Starting point is 00:02:23 And they were hovering around 500, just kind of like you were. And then they just rattled off 18 wins in a row. they ended up winning, I think it was 19 of their last 22 that year, and then they got into the playoffs that way. So, like, in theory, if you do that, yeah, you're probably going to make the playoffs in some position or another, but, you know, why on earth would anybody assume that this Mariners team can do that? You know, you're 100, I don't know, 140 games in, give or take right now, and you are what you are at this stage.

Starting point is 00:02:55 you're a 500 baseball team. You know, you're capable of playing, you know, two or three really good games in a row, sure. But are you also just as likely to play three or four really bad games in a row? Yeah,

Starting point is 00:03:06 you are. So, you know, it's, it's disappointing, sure. But, you know,

Starting point is 00:03:11 there is still the possibility you get in. But right now, it's just, I mean, you kind of, you've reached the stage where you need like a miracle, essentially. You need one of those insane,

Starting point is 00:03:21 like, 95 style runs. you know, like I said, the Cardinals a few years ago where you just get insanely hot at the right time and it doesn't like... And even then you're still going to need help, especially in the wild card, because you have,

Starting point is 00:03:37 not only do you have to catch up to, you know, the Royals or the twins, you also have to leapfrog a couple of teams that have the tiebreaker on you and the Red Sox and the Tigers. So, yeah, the path is just so murky at this point because you're either hoping that you're going to get hot and the Astros are going to collapse simultaneously and there is no

Starting point is 00:03:58 reason to think that either of those things are happening anytime soon or you're going to have to leapfrog three teams to sneak into the wild card which is also going to require a ton of outside help and also you probably having to win 16 games this month if not more so yeah i mean you probably, I don't know how many games they have this month. I think it's 23 or 24. Yeah, you're probably going to have to win 18 to even have a shot. So, yeah, it's pretty much over. But again, you know, the Cardinals a few years ago were in a very similar spot.

Starting point is 00:04:39 They were a 500 mediocre baseball team. And then they won, I think it was 18 in a row and 19 of their last 22 and they got in. So could you do something like that? I mean, in theory, sure. Is it likely? No. Yeah. I'd love to be more positive about this and give you a more optimistic outlook, but I also don't want to lie to you guys about this.

Starting point is 00:04:58 I just, I don't see it. I would love to be proven wrong, but I just, I don't see it. Peter wants to know, how low does the next month have to get for Jerry to be let go to? I don't think there's anything that happens this month that determines that. I think if they're going to decide to move on, that decision is going to be made on what we've seen over the last five months, right? the utter failure of this offense, the utter failure of blowing a 10-game lead in your division and seeing how everything else has played out since that happened.

Starting point is 00:05:29 I still think that they're going to get one more crack at it. I think that Jerry, Justin Hollander, everyone in that front office, they're going to get at least one more year at this. There's obviously a well-justified conversation to have about whether or not that should happen. But I think that's what's going to happen at the end of the day. yeah um you know it feels to me like they've already made their decision uh and if they were going

Starting point is 00:05:56 to fire him and and all that they would have gotten a jump start on that they would have done it when they fired service and then yeah when was jack z uh fired was that in august because they had jerry in place by september right yeah it was it was like mid august uh so yeah uh i would think they would have already done that jerry obviously has the one year uh option or whatever on his deal So my assumption would be is that they've already told them we're going to activate that. You're going to get one more crack at this because if they weren't going to do that, they probably would have let him go now. And maybe it's a chance to see Hollander in that role.

Starting point is 00:06:32 I don't know what exactly you're going to learn from Hollander in August and September to make you think that he's already the guy. But also, again, the fact that Dan Wilson was just named the manager and not the interim manager to me would seem to indicate that they kind of already know what they want their leadership structure on the baseball side of things to look like. So I guess this is that they're back. Yeah. And I'm not the first person to bring this up.

Starting point is 00:06:59 But like if you do bring in a new general manager president of baseball operations, whatever, you already have Dan Wilson in place. So either they just have to eat that, right? Or if they do want to bring their own guy in, you're really going to make your new GM slash president of baseball operations, etc. You're going to make their first task having to you let go of a franchise legend, Dan Wilson.

Starting point is 00:07:24 It's just it's a really, really tough spot that they've put themselves in here for really no reason. When they literally didn't have to. Yeah. There would be no reason whatsoever to, if you're going to bring in a new GM to be like, okay, now your first job is to fire a Mariners Hall of Famer five weeks after you got the job. Like there was no reason to do that. So that tells me that, yeah, Jerry's going to be back. I don't think there's anything that can happen on the field to, you know, change that.

Starting point is 00:07:52 Yeah, and I asked Ryan DeVish on Friday if he thought they would be, you know, maybe any front office changes, even if Jerry stayed and he didn't seem like he thought there would be. So I would just assume that it's going to be to Poto and Hollander for at least one more go at it. All right. So we are going to answer more of your questions here in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Locktime Airs podcast is brought to you by Fandul. You've heard me talk a lot about Fanduel, which of course is America's number one sportsbook.

Starting point is 00:08:20 Well, I have something a little different for you today. Now through September 22nd, all Fandual customers can bet $5 and get a three-week free trial of NFL Sunday ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV. Then with a YouTube TV base plan, you'll be able to watch every regular season Sunday afternoon out-of-market game. All you need is a Google account and a current form of payment and you can cancel any time. Just visit fanduil.com slash locked on. That's L-O-C-K-D-O-N to download America's number one sportsbook. And you're listening to the Lockdown Merrers podcast. You can catch all the action between the Marers and the A's tonight on the Marriss hometown broadcasts with SiriusXM via the SXM app.

Starting point is 00:09:01 All you have to do to find that is search the word. Marrars. Thank you guys for joining us here on Labor Day. Happy Labor Day. And I'm sure you guys are wondering, Ty, Colby, why are you guys working on Labor Day? That kind of defeats the purpose, right? well we're taking tomorrow off so colby is out of town he's going to be traveling back i'm going to be out tomorrow so we're taking tomorrow off we'll be back on wednesday uh we've moved around our our c tz

Starting point is 00:09:26 schedule as well if you haven't seen our announcement on the patreon and you're subscribed to the patreon we're doing what we typically call c tz mondays on wednesday and then we're moving our numbered ctz episode which is ctz 217 this week to friday so you guys will get those shows then. All right, let's get back into your questions here on Mailbag Monday. Kyle wants to know how safe is J.P. Crawford this winter. An average at best defensive shortstop with an average bat seems like someone Depoto would want to shed salary on. Colby, I know you have a lot of thoughts on J.P. Crawford's future. So floor is yours. Yeah, I'm just done. You know, it's it's been a disastrous year. It's an average at best glove. It's an average at best bat. It's an average at best bat. and, you know, he's making $11, $12 million the next couple of years. Yeah, I mean, it's not a salary that Jerry has to get rid of. But it is a couple of factors here. One, I think you could actually get something pretty decent for him on the trade market.

Starting point is 00:10:30 Two, you might have the answer already on your roster or already in your organization. It's possible Cole Young could be the everyday shortstop as early as opening day next year. He's at least as good defensively as JP is. you know, is it going to be at least like a 90 to 100 WRC plus bat? Maybe I, you don't want to bank on that from a rookie, but it's certainly possible. It's, I would say it's more likely than not that Cole Young could be that next year. But yeah, it's a tough fit. The real issue with JP moving on from him right now is just that you're probably already going to need a new first baseman. You're probably already going to need a new third baseman. And you might need a new second baseman depending on what you want to do with Blanco.

Starting point is 00:11:13 So it's like, do you want to build an entirely new out or entirely new infield in one off season? Can you even do that without relying on, you know, unproven rookies? I mean, no, probably not. At least one of those spots is getting filled by, you know, a Ryan Bliss or a Cole Young or someone like that. God forbid a Tyler Locklear. So it's just one of those things where you're like, you know, would it be better if we moved on from JP? Maybe. But it's always possible that JP, you know.

Starting point is 00:11:43 looks at this season as another wake-up call. He gets, you know, he gets going this winter. He puts in the work he did a couple years ago to get himself back. And JP doesn't have to be a 138 WRC-plus guy. If he's a 110 WRC-plus guy, he's still a valuable piece. And, you know, it doesn't exclude you from going out and getting a shortstop and finally moving JP to second. But you also look at just what's out there for agent-wise.

Starting point is 00:12:06 Not a lot of in-fielders. Yeah, but this year, it's kind of a different conversation than the one we've had, especially, you know, last winter where like JP doesn't have that kind of pull where he can be like, no, I'm not moving off a shortstop, right? If you find someone like if you went out and you signed if you went out and signed Willie Adamas, for example, which I don't think that's going to happen. But if they sign Willie Adamas and they want to start him at shortstop, they're just going to start him at shortstop. There's not even a conversation really to have there with JP. It's just you're moving to second end of discussion. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:12:38 JP hasn't had the year to have that kind of class. out, you know, and again, he's getting towards the end of his contract. He is two years after this year. So, yeah, if it's a problem for JP or whatever, you can pull the rip court on that deal pretty quickly and move it. So yeah, JP just running out of leverage. If you had produced a season like he did last year, I mean, A, the Mariners are probably still in a playoff hunt, a realistic one.

Starting point is 00:13:05 But B, also, you know, we're not even talking about JP coming back next year at $11 million. Of course, he's worth $11 million. And he probably still is. Like I'm not saying the guy's overpaid or anything like that because, again, an average defensive shortstop who's kind of a fringe average bat for $11 million, that's totally fine. Like that's more than fine. I mean,

Starting point is 00:13:26 Willie Adomis is probably going to get $150 million this year this off season. So, you know, we'll see. I'm certainly open to it. I think they could actually get something valuable for JP, maybe a couple of things valuable for JP. Because again, he's just because he's an up the middle. average bat. That's hard to find. But also, again, is it likely? I would say no, just because you're already having to

Starting point is 00:13:48 remake half of your infield, maybe even three quarters of it. It's just a lot to ask. It's, you know, you're adding more things to the shopping list instead of taking things off at the shopping list. And that's a really tough ask. Campbell wants to know, how crazy of an idea is it to call up Cole Young and move Jorge Palanco to third for the rest of the season? I think at this point, what do you have to lose calling up Cole Young. He only got, what did we say? 23 games left, 24 games left.

Starting point is 00:14:16 Why not? Just see what it looks like. He's been hot down in AA. He just got named Texas League player of the week. And again, he's someone that might factor into the opening day roster in some fashion. So let's just see what it looks like right now. Give him a cup of coffee at the big league level. Again, you're not really in a playoff race anymore. So how do you feel?

Starting point is 00:14:37 Yeah. My concern is, is he ready for, for major league pitching because calling up a guy just to see when you don't think he's ready is foolish. And he's had a very nice year down in AA, especially considering his age. I think he just turned 21 about a month ago. So, you know, and obviously he's on a heater right now. But to me, this is a guy that you should challenge with AAA.

Starting point is 00:15:00 If you were thinking about calling him up, you should have put him in AAA a couple weeks ago. So, yeah, there's not a ton of downside to it. But also, I wonder if there's much upside. to it. I don't know how much information you're going to gain that's going to be useful next year. Particularly if you just think that, you know, there's a chance that he's just not ready. So, you know, it'll be interesting to see what they want to do with that. It's possible. I mean, you don't have to make your September call-ups on September 1. You can still send guys up and down.

Starting point is 00:15:29 I saw a lot of people disappointed by the Mariners September call-ups. Like, those were final. Like, no, you could, you could send guys down and call other dudes up. It certainly would be something fun to watch for the last couple weeks of the season. but again, you're not, you have to do what's right for the player. And if your assessment is that Cole Young just isn't quite ready for big league pitching, like even if you think he's close, but he's not quite there, why risk it? Like, what are you gaining?

Starting point is 00:15:52 I mean, like, how much is 20-ish games going to hurt really in the grand scheme of things? Right. But how much is it going to help in the grand scheme of things? Sure. I think that's my main concern. Does it really help him? If not, then why do it? How can once know, how possible is that we finish bottom 10?

Starting point is 00:16:09 10 or top 10 however you want to look at it. The MLB draft lottery. You know, there's a decent chance they end up in the top 10 just by record wise. But Joe Doyle says that they have, as of yesterday, an 8.2% chance of landing a top 6 pick, which is pretty decent. You know, obviously it's not the odds you want, but whatever. So I would say a top 10 pick, the odds are probably 12 to 15% that they landed. And so obviously the lottery kind of mixes, you know, kind of makes things hard to plan for. Like, again, the Guardians were like a fringe 500 team last year and they ended up with the number one pick.

Starting point is 00:16:53 Like, so you could be the, have the sixth worst record in baseball and pick 10th. And it's just like, okay, well, was it really worth losing those last four games to get, you know, whatever, blah, blah, blah. So yeah, I would say decent odds that you're going to be picking in the top 10, which is a real bummer. But also, you know, if you're looking for kind of like a silver lining, which I hope this isn't a silver lining for anybody. But, you know, like giving like this front office, this scouting department, this, you know, player development group, just more talented options when they when they select next June or July, you know, and more money, more pool money to do it with. I mean, that's something. But like, yeah, I mean, I mean, you know, the common thing we hear about is like, why can't the mayor or why haven't the mayor has been able to do what the Orioles have done? Or like, you know, look at what the Orioles are doing, you know, compared to what the Marys are doing.

Starting point is 00:17:47 Well, the Orioles had a bunch of, you know, number one picks, right? Or top three picks in general. Give this group, you know, this player development, this, this, you know, Scott Hunter, give this group five top four picks in a row. Yeah. And see what they can do. But nobody wants to do that. nobody should want to do that, not where you are right now. So, yeah, they're very good at that still.

Starting point is 00:18:09 So, yeah, I mean, I guess like the consolation prize for having to live through the last three months of this season is that they give the top, I don't, five pick or whatever. You get Ethan Holiday or whoever out of it. Yeah, I guess. Cool, but like still, it's not really worth it. But whatever, it's a consolation prize. So, yeah, there's a shot they finish with, you know, inside the top 10 in terms of, like, worst record. I wouldn't say it's a great shot, but yeah, I mean, like Joe said, they have an 8% chance right now to get a top six pick.

Starting point is 00:18:43 I mean, I would imagine a top 10 pick. The odds are, I don't know, 10 to 15% somewhere in that range. All right. We have a couple more of your questions here to answer in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Maris podcast is brought to you by Game Time. So some of you may not know this, but I used to live in New Mexico. and down in New Mexico, there are zero pro sports teams. And a lot of the bands and artists that I listen to skip going there more often than not.

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Starting point is 00:20:45 are there any guys that we can be fairly certain will not be back next year uh my mind initially goes to the to the bullpen guys t thorntorton i highly doubt they're going to pay him an arbitration j t chagua he's been fine since coming over but i doubt that that they're going to pay him in arbitration. So I think those two guys are probably gone more likely than that. Anyone else, Colby, come to mind? I would say it's more likely than not that Josh Rojas isn't back. He's had pretty good week here lately,

Starting point is 00:21:19 but from basically May, middle of May till, you know, the last week of August, he was one of your worst hitters, you know, in this lineup. That's saying something. And, you know, he's probably only going to make, like, five, six million bucks. So it's not a guarantee that they don't pick that up. But again,

Starting point is 00:21:36 and we're operating under the assumption that the mayor's ownership is going to limit payroll again, you know, they're going to constrain it again. That extra five, six million bucks that you'd be spending on Rojas. That adds up. You know,

Starting point is 00:21:49 that's something that's not, you know, you could spend that money elsewhere, essentially now. Could you get in a position where, you know, hey, we've traded this guy, this guy, paying that money to Rojas makes sense.

Starting point is 00:22:02 and he's kind of a utility guy off the bench. Sure. But I think, yeah, Rojas is more likely than not getting non-tendered. I don't think there's a ton of, like, huge salaries on this team that you're going to move on from. It's hard for me to imagine that you find somebody to take Mitch Garver's contract. It's hard for me to imagine that you find somebody to take Hanager's contract. Now, they could just tell Hanager to go away and pay him a $17 million.

Starting point is 00:22:24 So that's a possibility. But, no, I think, you know, in terms of, like, just guys who are going to get non-tendered, I think Thornton is one of them. Chargwa, probably one of them, but we'll see. He's only going to cost you about $2 million. And then Rojas, I'd say more likely than not, is going to get non-tendered. As things stand right now, we'll see how he finishes the year. Then there's the guys like Sam Haggurty, who's definitely going to get non-tendered

Starting point is 00:22:50 because he tore his Achilles and all that stuff. Right, yeah. So, yeah, just on the 26th. Yeah. On the 26th man, right now, there might be. two or three guys that get non-tendered. Everybody else has an option and they're going to pick it up. So you'll probably go into this winter with 21 of your 26 guys

Starting point is 00:23:11 on the roster right now and not counting the two call-ups. They're probably going to be under contract heading into the winter. Last question of the day comes from Jaden. What do you expect from Julio for the remainder of the season? Next season. To what extent do you see his struggles this year change slash not change, your view of his potential going forward. I think his potential is still best player in the league.

Starting point is 00:23:38 Like, you see the tools are there. He's still an elite runner. He's still an elite defender. He's got a great arm. We know he has power. It's not an issue of can he hit home runs? It's, you know, can he get to the power? Can he make the swing changes necessary to elevate it?

Starting point is 00:23:52 And before this year, that really wasn't the issue. The issue was never like, oh, is Julio going to get to 30 home runs? It was like, can Julio get to 40 this year? Can he get to 50? Like we know the raw power is there. And, you know, despite all of his struggles this year, he still managed to maintain a relatively healthy batting average. So, you know, if the hit tool is your question, like he's going to hit 250.

Starting point is 00:24:11 He's been bad this year and he's still been, you know, pretty much hovering around 250 to 260 all year. So like, yeah, I feel like a healthy Julio. The floor is like a three-win player. And I'm not really concerned long term that he's not going to find a way to hit for more power. Like, why would I be? So no, I still think he's a superstar. I think this is a unfortunate timing for, you know, a real significant stepback season. But yeah, I think overall, like the guy is still for the last two years before this one,

Starting point is 00:24:44 he's five and a half win player, six one player. Yeah. At 21 and 22, like, okay, so he had a bad age 23 season, dealt with a pretty significant injury, made some swing changes that just didn't really work. And so, yeah, I mean, obviously, yes, got. He's got to put in the work. He's got to find a way to get to the pole side more, which he's done over the last week or so. So, yeah, we'll see if he puts in the work and he makes the changes he needs to.

Starting point is 00:25:07 But if he does, I have no reason to suspect that Julio Rodriguez is anything short of a star player for the next decade. Yeah, just like he had been the previous two years. It feels like he's been around forever, but he is just finishing up year three and he is 23 years old. So let's not be mad at him for not being Bobby Wood Jr. yet. Right. I mean, don't get me wrong. It is very frustrating that he's not that right now. It's very frustrating watching Gunner Henderson and Bobby Wood Jr. and knowing we have the guy that's capable of doing that and he's not doing that right now.

Starting point is 00:25:40 Absolutely. Julio can do everything those guys can do. Absolutely. All right. That is going to do it for our show. But before we get out of here, a reminder that Lockdown has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube. Now it's also available on Amazon Fire TV and the free Fire TV channel. app. Lockdown Sports Today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of Locked-on, plus our national shows covering every league.

Starting point is 00:26:06 Find Lockdown Sports Today now available on the free Fire TV channels app. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marrers podcast for Colby Patnode. I'm Tadang Azales. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Marrers. You can follow me at Tading Gonzalez and Colby at C-Pat-11. That's C-PAT-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Now head on over the Lockdown Seahawks to get all the latest on the Hawks before the The season kicks off this Sunday with Corby Smith and the gang and tell them Ty and Colby St.

Starting point is 00:26:32 You have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time. Peace.

Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - The Mariners' Playoff Hopes Are All But Gone... So What Now?

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