Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - The Mariners' Rotation Could Be Very Special in 2024

Episode Date: February 27, 2024

Ty and Colby kick off their 2024 position preview series with a look at the Mariners' electric starting rotation.WIN COLBY'S STUFF TERMS & CONDITIONS!Ask us questions!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!BackblazeReceive a fully-featured no risk free trial at Backblaze.com/lockedonmlb. Go there, play with it, start protecting yourself from potential bad times! eBay MotorsWith all the parts you need at the prices you want, it’s easy to turn your car into the MVP and bring home that win. Keep your ride-or-die alive at EbayMotors.com. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase.FanDuelNew customers, join today and you’ll get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS if your first bet of FIVE DOLLARS or more wins. Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We're kicking off our 2024 Mariner's position preview series with a look at one of the best, if not the best rotations in baseball. Colby, edit. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Oh, hoys sailors. It is Tuesday, February 27, 2024. This is Tiding, Gonzalez and Colby Patnett for the Locked on Mariner's podcast brought to you by

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Listen, subscribe, like, and turn alerts. If you're watching on YouTube or subscribe and leave a five-star review on your preferred podcast platform, if you like what you hear. And if you're part of the crew and rock with us every single day, let us know in the comments below. We'd love to hear from you. And if you want to hear from us even more, please consider to sign up for our Patreon. You can now get a free

seven-day trial to check out the show. link as well as our social accounts is in the description of this episode. And we're kicking off our position by position preview of the 2024 Mariners. Today we're going to zero in on the starting rotation. Tomorrow we'll focus on the bullpen and then next week we'll get into the position players because Colby's going out of town later this week. So let's start here with the rotation, the big three of Castillo, Gilbert, and Kirby. What are your expectations for those three guys, Colby?

first, second, and third in Sy Young voting, anything less is a major disappointment. I like it, but I'm going to need specifics. Who's one? Who's two? Who's three? I mean, in actuality, probably Kirby would be my bet of the three. If you're looking for the best value in, you know, Vegas, which we do not endorse, but wink. Not in the state of Washington? No, of course not, unless you go to a casino. Gilbert at plus 2,500 is pretty good value.

So, but yeah, the three, like you said, like, there's just not many teams of any that can kind of match the Mariners one through three. There are teams that have better pitchers than any of these three, but none of them have two, let alone three better than this trio. So, you know, this is... This is the Mariners strength that is in their starting pitching, and it is particularly in the top half of their rotation. You have three guys who all could legitimately win the Siong.

These are three guys who could, in theory, all, you know, be five-win pitchers, six-win pitchers. They all have that type of stuff in them. Gilbert and Kirby are still clearly, you know, on this upswing of their careers. And even Luis Castillo, I think he still has the stuff. I think there's still a small tweak he can make, and he could put up another five-win season, or just a five-win season for the first time, and kind of had that one last huge breakout before he kind of settles in as he enters his 30s.

So this is a group that they throw strikes. They all have nasty stuff. They can get you out multiple different ways, and they give you a shot, regardless of who the other team is throwing out there, these three guys will give you a shot to win more nights than not. a good shot to win. And we've seen them all, you know, come up in big moments and pitch really well. We've seen them struggle in big moments too. So they're not quite aces, right?

They're not Garrett Cole. They're not Spencer Strider. But they are legitimate at the very worst number twos. And for long stretches of the year, they will pitch like number ones or aces. So there's still some more upside to go get from all three. but the floor is really high, and these are three guys who legitimately, like, you could put money on them to win the Cy Young Award this year, and there's a decent chance that you're going to get a return on that investment.

Like, they're all very good pitchers. And this is kind of what gives the Mariners a chance, regardless how you feel about the rest of the team, or is just these three guys pitching back to back to back. You're going to win a lot of series just on that fact alone. Gilbert was pretty consistent last year, but we did see Castillo and Kirby hit some roadblocks there later on in the season. Was there something that you saw from both of them last year

that makes you think that something can be done to help prevent that from happening this year? It was interesting. Castillo's problem last year was pitching out of the stretch. A lot of things changed when he went to the stretch. And you remember last year was kind of the first year where he didn't get to do his little pre-set leg kick thing, as that was now considered a box. So maybe just the fact that he's more comfortable with that will help. But for him, you know, he didn't really have his change up for most of last year either.

So it was four seam, two seam in slider. And if he didn't have one of those pitches, you know, he was susceptible to it because he was throwing each one of them, you know, 35% of the time is. So for him, it's just command. And then hopefully he can find the change up. He threw a couple pretty good looking ones today. Didn't have radar readings on them, so it's a little hard to differentiate sometimes between the two seamer and the changeup on live TV. But it looked pretty good today.

Kirby, it was kind of weird because for, we talked about this in the past, Kirby doesn't have like ungodly stuff, right? Like he has to locate. He has to be in the middle of the plate or he can't be in the middle of the plate. his big challenge now is we kind of know what teams are going to try and do against him. They're going to try and attack him early because they know he's going to be in the strike zone. And that can work one of two ways. Either they're going to get a good pitch to hit and they're going to do damage and they'll put up five, six, seven runs on Kirby, or they'll play right into his hands and he'll get through eight innings on 82 pitches.

And so how does George counteract that? He needs more swing and miss. His stuff has to get better. He really is that simple. We know that George is a tinkerer. We know that he's going to have probably the best control and command in the game. So if you can just find a few more whiffs on the off-speed stuff, then he can kind of get guys into these counts quicker,

into these O2 counts and put them away instead of having these long drawn out of bats because he throws so many strikes that it's a pretty easy game plan. It's hard to execute, but the game plan is easy. There's not much that's going to surprise you about a George Kirby start. So I think those two guys, it's just small tweaks. I don't think that they need to add another pitch or anything like that. I think it's just about getting a little bit more out of their secondaries when they get into a little bit of trouble. Beyond those three guys, it's a couple of really high upside arms and Bryce Miller and Brian Wu.

We're going to be talking about those guys and whatever else is behind them in case someone, you know, knock on wood goes down in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Marries podcast is brought to you by eBay Motors. Passion, drive, and patience. What brings home the winning trophy is also what keeps your ride or die alive. eBay Motors has everything you need to maintain your vehicle and level it up to peak performance. From superchargers, roof racks, exhaust kits, LED headlights, and more. Whether you're into speed, power or style, eBay Motors has got you covered. And with over 122 million parts to choose from, you'll always find exactly what you're looking

for. With eBay guaranteed fit, your part is guaranteed to fit your ride every time or your money back. Because with eBay Motors, you're burning rubber, not cash. With all the parts you need at the prices you want, it's easy to turn your car into an MVP and bring home that win. Keep your ride or die live at eBaymotors.com. Again, that is eBaymotors.com. Eligible items only, exclusions apply eBay guaranteed fit only available to U.S. customers. And you're listening to the Lockdown Eras Podcast. Thank you again for making us here first listening and as a reminder lockdown has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on youtube locked-on sports today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports

stories of the day with local experts of locked on plus our national shows covering every league go to lock on sports today on youtube and subscribe to the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel part of the locked-on podcast network your team every day before we get back into our mariners starting pitching preview for the the 2024 season. You guys have three days left, including today, to get into our giveaway to win some of Colby's stuff. Colby, remind the fine folks what you're giving away. Now, keep in mind, we're recording this on Monday.

So we don't know yet if we've reached 11,000 subscribers for the next tier of this giveaway. Right. So as you guys probably remember, we're doing a tiered giveaway of a lot of my stuff, mostly autograph cards, but today we're going to throw something different into the mix a little bit. But essentially, to enter to win this stuff,

all you have to do is you just have to subscribe to this YouTube channel and leave a comment on any video that we posted from last Monday to this Friday, Thursday, right? Technically, Thursday, 1159, 59, PM. You just have to leave a comment

and make sure you're subscribed to the channel. We will randomly pick one comment and they will get this. We're calling it a Mariners mystery box, but we're kind of showing you guys what's in it as we hit certain numbers levels in this giveaway. So for every 100 levels, we add more to the box. What we have in it so far already.

Mitch Garber autograph card, dual jersey swatch card, numbered. Jared Kellnick numbered autograph card. I don't know. I can't see the camera when I hold the card up. Randy Winn autograph card is in there. We have this Harry Fulnick. Ford Bowman Chrome

Bowman Chrome refractor card we have this Las Montes numbered Bowman Chrome refractor card we have this lovely five out of five Perlonderboro a beautiful card autographed as well now if we get to

11,000 I will be adding this unopened Kyle Seeger Bobblehead from a few years ago as well as staying on theme this Kyle Seeger autograph card. So, and so we get to 11,000, those will both get added to the box as well.

So I don't, we might already be at 11,000, at which case if we are, I'll just go ahead and post whatever is the next tier up on our giveaway, on our socials. But yeah, that's what we're giving away so far and on the line here. And I think we're about 45 away is some Kyle Seeger stuff. So if you're a big Kyle Seeger fan, again, just make sure you subscribe to the channel, leave a comment. and you have a chance to win all that. Make sure you guys check out the terms and conditions, also in the description down below. So we've talked about the big three in the Mariners' rotation.

Now let's talk about Bryce Miller and Brian Wu, who coming off of really nice first seasons at the major league level. Wu, of course, started to tire out towards the back end of the year. Miller was pretty consistent. Obviously got off to an insane start. But then, you know, kind of evened out and was just fine. Had some pretty good starts. Had some not so great starts.

He is now added a splitter like Logan Gilbert did last offseason. We'll see like we talked about with Gilbert last year when we were doing. I mean, I remember being in the same chair last year doing the same exact show talking about, you know, it's great that Gilbert has a splitter in theory, but until we see it, that pitch doesn't really exist. Right. So same thing applies to Miller. Really worked out for Gilbert doesn't mean that's going to be the same case for Miller. But what are your expectations for him? And then we'll get into Wu. Yeah. Miller last year, very similar rookie year, debut year, technically was a rookie year to Logan Gilbert. And his rookie year just living on the fastball value. And that pitch really played very well. And just seen just enough of his off speed stuff. just flashing it just enough to that if you know that if he has one of those other pitches,

he has a chance to go six, seven innings, give up two runs or less, like just on having the fastball and one secondary pitch alone. Now, last year for Miller, the secondary pitch, he tried to use more, was the slider. And again, we did see a flash as an above average pitch, but it just wasn't consistent enough this year, like you said, he's introducing the splitter. And as we say, every time a Mariner, you know, comes into camp with a new pitch, until we see it, like in action, there's really not a ton of reason to be excited about it. We know that Miller posted a ton of videos of the splitter, you know, this winter.

But keep in mind is that, you know, you only have to post the ones you want to, right? Like, you don't have to post any of the submit mixers at you. Yeah, there's that. And it also, you know, it's going to look different against live hitting. sure right so the splitter would be a very nice pitch to add for miller especially if he tunnels it well with the fastball but it's for now it's a work in progress pitch and it's not something that we can kind of factor in until we see it you also remember last year matt brash wanted to throw a cutter didn't really take now did it so uh you know now again the mariners did did get kirby and gilbert to both add the splitter last year and that was their

their decision, but they both were able to throw it and it worked, and it was fine. But again, Brash tried to learn a cutter last year, didn't take, didn't throw it. So we'll see what Miller's split looks like. I mean, we won't see it because, God forbid, the Mariners broadcast any of the games on the network they own, but, you know, whatever. So we won't get to see Miller. Or maybe we will. Maybe he's pitching on Friday. But I'd like to see the splitter before I count on it.

If it's a good pitch, like a legitimate, legitimate major league splitter, then I I think Miller could take a pretty big jump because it's a pitch that works really well with his fastball. If it's just kind of what it was last year, throws a ton of strikes, mostly fastballs, slider is a little bit hit or miss. Then he's probably a two and a half three one guy, but there's really no question that he should be fine. There should be no restrictions on his innings cap this year. He went 150 last year.

He should be good to go 180 or so this year. He's a good pitcher, and there's certainly more to go get there. If he either refines the slider or the splitter is a legitimate third pitch, he could make a pretty significant jump this year. So Miller is definitely fun guy to watch. Probably less upside than Brian Wu, but obviously the ceiling is higher. And he's a guy that you're going to trust a little bit more than Wu at this stage of their career. So Wu's very interesting was a big topic of discussion this off season. just like Miller, you know, with trade talks.

The mayor has decided not to trade either of these guys and doesn't seem like they're going to be doing so anytime soon by all accounts. But again, Wu is very interesting because still not that far removed from Tommy John surgery. And we saw him tire out, like I mentioned earlier, towards the end of the season. Had some really nice starts, but also had some big blowups as well. think about the first game against the Rangers, which was really difficult situation for him to be put in for his first career start, that Reds game as well. But the big thing for me, the big question here with Brian Wu, is how is he going to get lefties out? Yeah.

The question also applies to Bryce Miller also. Miller, kind of the hidden knock on Miller that nobody really talked about is that he also really struggled against lefties. And, you know, that's not uncommon for two young pitchers to come up and kind of struggle with opposite hand. pitch hitters. So, but for Wu, it was just a little bit even more stark, the difference. Last year against right-handed hitters, Wu held them to a 179-226-26-28-slash line. Lefties, however, touched them up to 283, 389, 540. So, you know, against right-handed pitchers, basically right-handed hitters, every hitter was

double Achilles tear, Tommy Lestella, versus left-hand hitters. Every left-hand hitter was basically Corey Seeger. So you can find a happy medium there against lefties. Again, the sky's the limit. Now, for Wu, it's interesting because we haven't heard really anything about Wu's off season. Miller was posting the new splitter. And as far as we know, Wu hasn't added any new pitches or anything like that.

Yeah. And we don't, I don't think he necessarily needs to. The two fastballs, and he does have a two same. we're in a four seamer. They're both really good pitches. He controls them very well. He has a good command with those as well. It's a very smooth delivery. It's very little effort in it. Like he can dot it at the top of the zone. He can dot it at the knees. Like it's really good both of them. Good fastballs. And a good two seamer can be a legitimate weapon against lefties too. Yeah. Typically you need something that runs in on them though to have the two seamer play. And we saw

we kind of mess around with a cutter in a slider last year through a change up once in a while. for me, it feels like Wu's, how big of a jump Wu can make obviously comes down to A health, which is true of just about any player, but Wu does have the UCL injury, and he did set a career high innings pitch last year. So it is worth mentioning with Wu at least. It's going to come down to health

and which secondary takes the biggest leap and how big of a leap is it? because if Wu just has four seam two seam and an average slider, consistently average slider, with his control command, his delivery and all that stuff, he's going to be a three-win pitcher this year, even if he only throws 150 innings. So, you know, again, I think Wu has higher upside. I think the fastball is better than Miller. It's just a matter of when slash if the secondary takes, you know, the leap forward.

And again, last year we did see Wu. throw some good cutters and some legitimately good sliders. So it's not like he's got nothing to, like he has no starting point with those pitches. It's just about finding consistency. Can that be a consistent 55 grade pitch instead of throwing, you know, five or six 40 sliders and then 160 slider?

Right. Can you find some consistency with that pitch? And I think it's either, it's the cutter or the slider. I don't think the change up is the pitch that's going to explode, although the change up isn't awful. It's useful. Like you can, it might be, maybe it's the change up.

Maybe it's a new grip on the change up and that's the pitch that he uses to get lefties out. So it's a big question. I don't doubt that Wu can find the answer to it. It's just until we see it, it has to remain the biggest question about Brian Wu. Because I actually feel pretty comfortable about where his health is heading into this year. Yeah. It's hard to not feel anything but great about this one through five for the mayor's rotation. but beyond those guys, if other starters have to make an appearance or two over the course of this season,

there's some concerns. And we're going to get into that in just a moment. But first a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Marys podcast is brought to you by Fanduel. With football officially in the books and some time before baseball gets underway, why don't you try your hand at betting on some hoops? Get buckets with your first bet on Fandul, America's number one sports. sportsbook because right now new customers get $150 in bonus bets with any winning $5 bet.

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as we preview the Mariners' 2024 starting rotation. We've talked about their one through five, and hopefully, fingers crossed, all things go well. It is only those five guys who make starts for the Mariners in 2024.

Sure. Be the first team since the 2002 Mariners to only use five starters the entire year. That seems realistic. But as we all know, yeah, like you just said, that's not a very realistic thing here.

So odds are, there's at least going to be a sixth guy that makes starts for the Mariners and potentially more. Probably more. Emerson Hancock. I think the list starts with him. You guys know how we

you guys know how we feel about Emerson Hancock if you watched our prospect rankings a week ago. And then after that, Jimmy Joyce. Somehow gets scary. Question mark. Yeah. Jimmy Joyce.

Jerry DePoto's mentioned Tyson Miller and Reed Van Scooter. Jonathan Diaz. He has some starting experience. Jackson Coar has some starting experience. Yeah. But yeah, pretty confident Hancock's going to get the first go at this. Now, the Mariners have raved pretty early on about Hancock this spring, but they won't

get into specifics, which is a little sketchy. Like, oh, yeah, he's looked really good. Like, oh, is the velocity up? Is the change up bat? Is the slider back? you're just like, you know, he looks good. It looks good. Like, can you give us some details here?

Did he add a pitch? Did he, is the slider more consistent? Is he going to throw the change up more? Because, I mean, if he just looks like he did last year, it's not good. Like, that's back. That is like at best a number six starter. And that's if everything goes well for him. So Hancock's a guy at 91 to 92, like what he was last year.

he can't even really get to his best pitch effectively, which is his change-up. He didn't throw his change-up last year in the big leagues. They think he threw it like 15 times. That's too good of a pitch to not throw. But if your fastball is 91 to 92 and your change-up is just kind of floating out there, you can't make them honor the fastball.

They're going to sit on the change-up. So for me, I think Hancock's velocity is something I want to watch. Now, unfortunately, he's pitching on Saturday, which is not televised. Yeah, we get it. We get it. You know, God forbid.

We watch Emerson Hancock. No, we have to watch. Well, Graham Bessinger or whatever, interview Charles Barkley. Oh, good programming route.

But also, also, even if he was pitching on TV, so many of these ballparks don't even have statcast data or radars or anything like that. So would we even know? we'd just be relying on reports from people at the ballpark which spotty at best reporters at the ballpark so yeah he's a huge question mark until he isn't uh i would love to be wrong because if we are the mariners have a legitimate you know number six starter maybe they're willing to move miller at the deadline or maybe hancock has more value at the deadline and you can move him so um i just man if he if he's 80% of the pitcher he was when the mariners drafted him just stuff offwise, he's totally legit number four.

Like he absolutely is. And that's just at 80%. If he gets back to what he was at Georgia somehow, finds that magic elixir. Right. He's a, you know, number three or higher. So there's still a little bit of hope, but I'm kind of running out of, you know, it's a more like hope for a guy. Yeah.

He's just, he's right hand of Marco Gonzalez at this stage. If the, and I'm not talking good like three straight, three wins season, Marco Gonzalez. I'm talking like 20, 22, Marco, where it's just kind of like, like yeah it's just he gets some outs but like he's just as likely to give six runs as he is to give up two well it's just he has he has so much wearing tear on him now yeah the shoulders and it's had a yeah he's had another shoulder injury which cut his season short this past year and look obviously he was probably dealing with that when he got called up to the bigs and maybe that did

have some sort of impact on his stuff and the way his stuff looked because when he was up, even though he had a decent-ish start against the Padres, the stuff overall looked fringe MLB quality. It's just, by the way, that's your number six starter, and he has major shoulder issues. That's not good. This is the guy you're going to go to if, you know, you have to put, you know, George Kirby on the,

on the 15 day IL, you're going to go to Emerson Hancock, who also has shoulder issues. Yeah, this, I would feel a lot better about the depth if they just had a and this sounds so weird to say but if they just had a Tommy Malone type or just Tommy Malone, I don't know if he's signed anywhere. Just go get Michael Lorenzen.

Michael Lorenzen would help this team more than Matt Chapman. You've been whispering a lot on this episode, locked on ASMR. That's right, baby. Anyways, so yeah, I think both is another guy that's going to get thrown into this mix. He has starting and starting, starting and reliever experience.

You mentioned Trent Thornton, I'm pretty sure. He hasn't started. He hasn't started, I think, since 2019 with any regularity. But he is a multi-ineraliever. We saw the Mariners kind of do this last year when they put Wu down for three weeks or so. Like they just kind of did Luke Weaver for three or four and then they go to the bullpen. I think they would just try to do that with somebody like Thornton or somebody like Joey Crable.

Crabble have starting an experience? No, but he's. He's gone multi-ennings before. Crable looked pretty good today, by the way. I think he could throw like two. Like if you just want to go opener and then bullpen day, basically. You don't want to do that like every fifth day. No.

So especially early in the year. So. Well, and we saw how much that had an impact on the bullpen down the stretch, especially without Paul Seawald. It's a lot of innings to cover. And that's if everybody else in your rotation goes six or seven, which is not a guarantee.

So. Right. I think, you know, this is why I think Jackson Co-R if he doesn't make the team, he'll go down to Tacoma. And despite the Mariners seeing him as a reliever, they'll ask him to start. They'll stick him in the Rainier's rotation. Same with Jonathan Diaz. He's clearly a reliever, but they'll stick him in that rotation. And that's kind of what you're looking at after Hancock.

Like they'll probably go both. It would be their next guy up if he makes the team. And then after that, it's co-Ried. And vote has to make the team. pretty much. Yeah, unless he clears waivers after, you know, because he's out of options. And maybe he would, but I feel like those are probably going to make this opening day open anyways.

Yeah. So yeah, I mean, like they could really use like a Marco Gonzalez type like Tommy Malone. Did Eric Lauer sign anywhere yet? I don't think so, but I think you might also be dealing with a shoulder issue himself, but like they could really use like a bad guy. That idea. Yeah. Right, right.

Yeah. Like just somebody like that. just a number five starter who can get outs. So we'll see the depth is not where it wants to be, but the one through five is as good as it gets. So like if you're grading this Mariners rotation, don't you kind of have to give it an A? Yeah.

I mean, like I understand the concerns about that I have them too, but like one through five is so good. Yeah, I think it's the best rotation in baseball, especially because Otani is not going to be pitching for the Dodgers this year. You know, if it's a year from now, maybe it's the Dodgers. But also, you know, in a year from now, we could be thinking a lot differently about Brian Wu or Bryce Miller. Yeah. So.

Or Logan Gilbert or George Kirby. Well, yeah, that's the thing, too, man. Like, Logan Gilbert hasn't had a four-win season yet. No. Luis Cassio didn't have a four-win season this past year. Which is weird. Like, I get it. he's kind of hit or miss towards the end there but like no he was really good he was really good i mean

he was what third or fourth in siung voting fourth i think yeah all right that's gonna do it for our show again we're gonna do the relievers tomorrow but we're about to record that it's actually a triple recording day for us today on monday so look forward to that thank you so much for joining us here on the lockdown marries podcast for colby pat note i'm tiding gonzalez be sure to give us a follow on twitter at l o underscore mariners you can follow me at tai dame gonzal us and Colby at C-Pad 11. That's C-P-A-T-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode.

Thank you again for making us your first. Listen, have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.