Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - The Only Solution to the Mariners' Offensive Issues: Get New Players (And, Well, Get the Core Going)

Starting point is 00:00:00 We've known for quite some time that the mayor's offense is currently constructed is a recipe for disaster. But while significant changes are undeniably needed, can anything actually be done right now? You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on podcast network, your team every day. Ahoy, sailors. It is Monday, June 24, 2024. This is Tiding Gazzalus and Colby Patnode for the Locked-on Marers podcast. That's part of the Locked-on podcast network, your team every day.

Starting point is 00:00:38 On today's show, we're going to open up the mailbag like we do here every Monday and answer some of your Mariners questions. Before we get into this week's batch, though, shout out to our title sponsor today, prize picks. It's the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports. Go to priespix.com slash locked-on MLB and use the promo code, Locked-on MLB, that's all lowercase for first deposit match up to $100. And if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show,

Starting point is 00:01:03 check out our Patreon. The link is in the description, and you can sign up for free seven-day trial. Gregory is going to kick us off here on Mailbag Monday with a question about Julio, saying Julio has just 13 extra base hits as we approach 81 games played. How has he done this? What does he need to do in his final 81 games to salvage his season? Colby. How he's done it is he made some changes to a swing that had left him completely vulnerable.

Starting point is 00:01:34 to really any kind of velocity on the inside corner. He's just getting eaten alive by that pitch. As a result, you know, you could probably notice this just by watching Julio regularly. He's not driving the ball to left field, hardly ever. And he's also not hitting the ball in the air to left field, hardly ever. And those are two things that, you know, kind of important when you're trying to hit doubles and home runs. Like it's very hard to hit a double on a hard hit ground ball. It just those balls don't find the gap that often.

Starting point is 00:02:05 It's even harder to hit a home run on a ground ball. So he's sitting a ton of ground balls. He's not pulling the ball enough in the air in particular to really generate those extra base hits. And while Julio has the power to go to dead center field and he can go to right field, we've seen him do it a few times. A good chunk of his home runs are going to come and extra base hits are going to come to his pole side because that's the type of hitter he is. certainly capable of, you know, hitting a double into the right center field gap of, you know,

Starting point is 00:02:36 hitting a home run to right center field. He did it against the White Sox a few days ago. Like, we know he can do that. It's just he's not going to do that enough to hit for enough power that it's going to be, you know, the type of player that you need Julio to be. Like, you need Julio to be a guy who's hitting 30 home runs. Like, you have to have that because a lot of your team is built around the idea that like, yeah, we have a little bit less power at third base, but we're going to make up for that because we have elite power from a center fielder. And right now you don't. So now you have a power shortage in your lineup.

Starting point is 00:03:07 And it's because of Julio. So he's got to hit the ball in the air more. He's got to hit it to the pole side more. And, you know, when he is sitting the ball in the air, it seems like he's mostly flying out to right field or he's, you know, lining out to right field or he's dropping base hits into right. And, you know, the base hits are fine. Like Julio's batting average is not the problem. Nobody's going to be upset if he's hitting 260, right? That's fine.

Starting point is 00:03:29 It's a little low, but it's fine. It's within the range. It's slugging sub 400. And it's, you know, like you said, 13 extra base hits and half a season. It's just not going to fly. He should have, you know, 13 home runs by now, not just extra base hit. So he's got to get to the pole side. He's got to figure out how to hit that inside pitch because right now he's incredibly easy to pitch to.

Starting point is 00:03:49 And it's not even like he's taking, you know, the, he's chasing off the plate inside too. So it's just, he's just a mess right now. And ultimately, you know, we can. blame the hitting coaches. We can blame whoever we want. It's on Julio. Julio has to be better. It's really that simple. He's the one who has to make the adjustment. And there's only so much a hitting coach or the Mariners can do to help him do it.

Starting point is 00:04:10 At the end of the day, it's on him to figure it out. You want to know what's wrong with Julio? Go into the day app. Look at yesterday's game. Look at his second to last at bat. Look at specifically pitch number two. It's a cutter. Middle, upper third of the zone.

Starting point is 00:04:27 And he swings right through it. he has to do damage on that pitch he has to and he is consistently not doing damage with pitches like that peter wants to know does mitch hanniger survive the trade deadline or is there another bad contract swap that he might be a part of or just d fade um you know he's not hitting lefties really he's not hitting righties really so yeah he's uh you know obviously he's hurting you defensively as well uh they tried to play him in the field a little bit less they've tried to use them him only against lefties and nothing's really working. He's still hitting okay at Team Mobile Park, which is kind of weird.

Starting point is 00:05:05 But, you know, he's just, he's, I just, I don't think he's a major league quality player right now. And it's unfortunate because Annerger's done some great things for you and he's had some big moments. And even this year, he's had some, some, you know, good stretches and Andy's helped you at times this year. But now you just look at what he is and it's just, he's a guy whose body is just kind of finally shut down on him a little bit. just not able to do what he's been capable of doing. And it's a bummer, you know, because it's mostly injury related. It's not really his fault. But it is just reality.

Starting point is 00:05:39 And the Mariners probably should face that reality and just eat the money. But I don't think they're going to. And I do think they value some of his clubhouse stuff a little bit. It's just, you know, it's tough to justify that at $17 million. But this isn't the NFL. You're paying that, you know, whether he's on the roster. or not and it's just tough to say right now that there's somebody who is down in the miners who absolutely should have Mitch Hanaker's spot like they just don't have a ton of bats who are

Starting point is 00:06:11 performing down to AAA so it's a little bit of a gray area there they probably should move on I I don't think they will yeah yeah with the way that they have operated they are not just going to say all right here's your money go away now if they do I'll believe it when I see it but for now I just I have no expectation of that happening, even though it probably should. All right, we're going to answer more of your questions here in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Marys podcast is brought to you by Fandul and Prize Picks. I know I'm saying the obvious here, but I love sports. I love them so much.

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Starting point is 00:08:20 And you're listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast. The M's kick off a three game series with the Tampa Bay raise tonight or rather this afternoon for those of you in the Pacific time zone. You can catch all the action on the Mariners hometown broadcast, Sirius XM via the SXM app. All you have to do to find that is search the word Mariners. We got another question here from Seattle sports fan here on Mailbag Monday. Seattle sports fan asked,

Starting point is 00:08:45 what are the long-term ramifications, if any, to the Johnny Farmello injury? It's not uncommon for guys to lose a chunk of their quickness, even years after recovery and speed was maybe his best tool. Does this change your prospect outlook slash trade value for him? in the future. So Farmello, for those of you that don't know, did Terra's ACL a couple weeks ago?

Starting point is 00:09:07 To answer the last part of your question, no, because we don't know how this is going to affect him long term, if at all, because look, we're not doctors, but ACL injuries, players have recovered from, you know, because you look across all leagues, right? Not just MLB, but also NBA, NFL. Guys have come back from ACL injuries, and they've looked pretty much basically the same player.

Starting point is 00:09:30 if not even better in some instances. So it's not as much of a death knell as it used to be. But yeah, obviously there's a level of concern of how this could impact him long term. But until we see him, we can't definitively say one way or the other. Any thoughts you have on that, Colby? Yeah. You know, there's different degrees of ACL tears. There's complete reconstruction, which can be a little bit troublesome and all that.

Starting point is 00:09:58 But, you know, I think what people, you know, I think when we think knee injuries and the Mariners, we think of a guy like Kyle Lewis. It wasn't until the second knee injury that he just kind of lost all of his speed and agility and all that stuff. And Formello, you know, again, it may not seem like a big deal, but he's, what, 19 when he gets hurt. Like it's a little bit different when you tear your ACL at 19 than it is when you're 25, 26, 27. And you have all the wear and tear on it. So, you know, to me, I'm not going to downgrade him. at all in my prospect ranks, not until we actually see what he looks like post-ACL injury. It's a bummer.

Starting point is 00:10:36 It certainly is, but it's also worth noting that he probably plays sometime next year. So I don't think this is going to be a huge deterrent on him. And speed might be his best tool right now, but there's plenty to believe in the bat and the arm and the power department as well. And I doubt he goes from 70 grade runner to 45 grade runner because of one ACL injury. But again, we don't know. We're not doctors. We're not quite sure I was going to bounce back from this. It'll certainly be something to watch.

Starting point is 00:11:09 But right now there's really nothing I can do about it. So I'm not going to worry about that. In terms of trade value, I mean, I can't imagine a lot of teams right now are looking to trade for someone that just recently tore their ACL. So yeah, his trade value might be a bit down right now. I don't think it's like completely gone. I think teams would still be very much interested in acquiring Johnny Farmelow, but they're probably in that regard taking the angle of like, hey, can we get Johnny on the cheap?

Starting point is 00:11:37 Next question from Hunter. Who do you think is more likely to be sent down when Polanco returns? Ryan Bliss or Tyler Locklear? If Locklear is sent down, how do you give both Bliss and Polanco playing time? Most likely to be sent down would be Locklear just because he didn't play this weekend. you didn't appear in the series whatsoever. And again, well, he pinched ran in game one. What to do?

Starting point is 00:12:02 Yeah. Now, some of that is because the Marlins didn't start the lefties that you thought they were going to start in games two and three. But yeah. You still couldn't find a way. And again, it's not like Thai France is destroying the baseball right now. He's walking a lot, which is fun, which is fun, I guess. But it's not like he's been so good that you can't put him in the lineup over Thai

Starting point is 00:12:20 France or Garber had a really bad series at the plate. So, yeah. Yeah, they just, they didn't play them. and there's no point in having them on the roster. You're not going to play him. So he should be the guy they send down. How do you get Bliss and how do you get Polanco in the lineup? Well, you'd DH Polanco.

Starting point is 00:12:37 Polanco can play third. Bliss can play some shortstop if you need them to. So there are ways to get both guys at bats. Bliss obviously was the best player the Mariners had this weekend, which is not a good thing, as fun as it was. It's certainly not a good thing. but yeah so it's just it's tough to when you look at how the offense is struggling right now it's tough to justify sending down Ryan Bliss at the moment because again he also helps you he's

Starting point is 00:13:06 he's one of the better athletes on the team you can play up the middle you can steal a bag he's shown some power maybe not over the wall power but he's certainly got the pop and right now he's strikeouts aren't really a problem he's putting the ball and play consistently like you just you find a way to make it happen and you know, Polanco's got plenty of experience playing third. So you want to give Josh Rojas more time off and use him more situationally. You can do that. But also, you know, against right-handed pitching, Bliss can be on the bench and he can be

Starting point is 00:13:37 a weapon off the bench late, which Locklear just can't. Versus a left-handed pitcher, then, you know, he should, bliss should probably be in the lineup. That second base, and maybe it's shortstop and JP gets a day off against the lefty. And then maybe Rojas just plays third against. left-handed pitching and Dillamore goes and plays right-field for Dom-Kand-zone against right-hand pitching. Like, you can make it work. Obviously, Bliss will get fewer at-bats than he's gotten over the last four or five days, but you can still get them enough to justify keeping them on the roster.

Starting point is 00:14:09 Yeah, for sure. I think Bliss, especially over the last few games, dating back to that last game in Cleveland, has done more than enough here to kind of, you know, look, it's basically like a short sample size that you're having to base this off of. But within that short sample size, I think Bliss has proven his value far more than Locklear right now and a multitude of ways for you. So I think Bliss is the guy here. I should get the call. All right.

Starting point is 00:14:34 We are going to answer some more of your questions here in just a moment. But first a reminder, this episode of the Lockdown era's podcast is brought to you by Supplyhouse. Get supplies from the site that's made for the skilled trade. Supplyhouse.com. Supplyhouse.com is the reliable way to order plumbing, HVAC, and electrical products online. Their easy-to-use website is packed with helpful resources and the latest product info to help you get the job done right. Shop a complete inventory of over 200,000 parts from over 400 top brands and get your order delivered right to your door with fast shipping from coast to coast. Need help with an order?

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Starting point is 00:16:01 more questions here on mailbag monday before we get out of here this one comes from jes smart what would jazz chisholm and a j puck costs and where would jazz theoretically play if the ms acquired him colby um yeah yeah jat where jazz plays probably still i mean probably a corner outfield spot at this stage but also play second base So you can put jazz in left or right field for now. And then you kind of see how Polanco and Bliss works out for, you know, a few weeks. And then, you know, if you can't do that, then Jazz can go back to his natural position, which is, I mean, technically short style.

Starting point is 00:16:41 But he's played a lot of second base as well. So, you know, the fit for Jazz really not that hard in terms of getting him regular playing time. He would help you in the outfield. He could help you at second base as well. So that part's not too hard. As for the cost, you know, tough to say, jazz is a fun player, certainly. But he is a guy who has a lot of red flags. He has injury risk, quite a bit of it, that, you know, he's missing a few times,

Starting point is 00:17:13 very similar to Luis Robert in the past. There have been severe split issues. He hasn't hit lefties at all. This year, I think he's doing pretty well against lefties. but you know there's still a huge sample size that says he shouldn't hit against left-handed pitching he's young though so this could just be him getting better that could just be a skill that he's developed so I can't say for sure that he's a platoon guy but that's probably you know what based on the evidence that we have that's probably what's most likely going to be the case

Starting point is 00:17:45 there but yeah it's it's the it's the health that's the big red flag on jazz chisholm and it's just tough to trust a guy like that right now. But you're the Marlins is the guy who's got, I think, two years after this year, two full years after this year, left to club control. He's a above average center fielder. He can play second base.

Starting point is 00:18:06 He steals bags. He's got power. And now he's starting to hit lefties. Like, yeah, that's going to be a player that Miami is basically going to demand. They get the price that they want or they're not going to move them. So a little bit tough to put a good value on Jazz. Chisholm. A.J. Puck is a guy who is really struggling this year, but he obviously does have high leverage stuff. Just, you know, he's a bit pricier than I would like to pay.

Starting point is 00:18:37 He's, he's not my choice of the Marlins bullpen options. I would put it that way, especially for the lefties. I would, I would prefer Tanner Scott. And honestly, I'd probably prefer Andrew Nardy when just comparing potential costs over Puck as well. Yeah, I mean, I don't want to pay extra for puck. If they're throwing puck in as like a literal throwing, fine, whatever. But I'm not paying an extra penny to get AJ puck. There are other guys in this bullpen that I would pay a little bit more for. But yeah, the other thing with Jazz too is that he does have a bit of a strikeout issue,

Starting point is 00:19:11 although this year it's been fine. He's at 24 and a half percent right now, which again is fine. But it's not great, but it's not bad. And he's a 114 WRC plus guy. He's probably going to be a three-win player if he plays enough. That's a good player. It's not an all-star. And I think Miami's going to look at Jazz Chisholm and they're going to look at his age

Starting point is 00:19:32 and they're going to look at kind of his, you know, appeal. And they're going to say, yeah, he's a star. So you need a pass like a star. And he's not. He's not a star. So I think that the Marlins would want somebody in that top four or five. They'd want a Montez. They'd want a four.

Starting point is 00:19:50 they'd want and to me i don't like jazz is worth that uh they want to talk you know tie pete and uh you know somebody in that range the aiden smith if they want to talk a bulk deal they want to talk ty locklear uh then fine i'm i'm interested in that but if i'm having to give up board young emerson las even farmello at the stage i'm elin i'm just i'm not interested in that uh again We're talking about a 115, 120 WRC plus guy, not a 140. And that comes with all the injury risk that is associated with him too. Yeah, yeah. I think the highest that I'm willing to go is Taipei.

Starting point is 00:20:34 And that's, and if I'm the mayor, that's why I'm telling the Marlins. And if they want something better than that and they're not willing to move off of that, then have a great day. I'm moving on. I'm looking elsewhere because, look, I like jazz. I think the upside is immense. But even then, you add someone like that. like that, it's not a slam dunk. And I need something closer to that right now. I need something

Starting point is 00:20:54 closer to a guarantee that I can, if I'm going to pay top dollar, if I'm going to subtract from one of the better farms in baseball, I need someone that I can put in my lineup because right now that's what I need that can give me some stability. This team desperately needs stability and they need someone that you can feel good about providing that in jazz. Well, again, the upside is very high. I don't feel great about him being able to give them that stability, whether it be in terms of the production or just from a health standpoint. Yeah. If you're, if the Marlins are insistent that they get one of those five or six like premier prospects in the system, I would rather, or I would probably be like, okay, then you're talking about jazz and like Lizardo, even though Lazzardo is going to be out for about a month. Like I just, jazz just isn't that guy to me.

Starting point is 00:21:45 He's a good player. He's not a great player. You wouldn't give up, you know, Colt Emerson for Lars Newbar. Right. And Jazz is pretty much the same player with more injury risk. Last question of the day comes from David. When do you consider moving J.P. down in the lineup?

Starting point is 00:22:04 He is running a 286 OBP since June 1st. That seems unacceptable for a leadoff hitter. I agree, but also what other options do you have? I guess Luke Rayleigh I guess Josh Rojas Yeah You know there are a lot of people demanding Big lineup you know shakeups and moving guys up and down

Starting point is 00:22:27 And it's just like okay cool Who's the better option? Yeah Like you need better players at this stage You know could they try some things? Sure Crawford's striking out a ton right now I know he's had some disagreements with the strike zone

Starting point is 00:22:44 And he's been right on a lot of them but he's still striking out way too much on this road trip to be anywhere near the leadoff spot. There are some players who can strike out and you live with it. J.P. Crawford is not one of them. He's got to find a way to put the ball in play more consistently. But Julio's not an option. I don't think Rojas is an option, although he's been better recently. Still, you know, not great.

Starting point is 00:23:06 I don't think you're trusting Ryan Bliss to be a leadoff hitter yet. So, yeah, you kind of look at it and you go against the right-handed pitcher. Luke Rayleigh is probably the best. choice. And then, but then, okay, who would second? How far are you moving down JP? Second? You can move Julio up. Is he earned that. Sticking with Rojas? Okay, who would start? Yeah. Right. You kind of start to see and say, okay, well, Gar, like we know Garber, Julio, JP, you know, Ty, Cal, they're going to be in the lineup. None of those guys are playing that, are hitting that well right now, especially over the last week or two. So at some point, you're just kind of

Starting point is 00:23:45 rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic and you just have to make better you just have to get better players so they did it a little bit today they tried dom can zone in the four hole so it's not like they haven't tried to do things and they haven't tried to get some of their hotter hitters up to the plate a little bit more frequently but there's just not really a good configuration that makes a ton of sense and you know maybe horre polanco comes up and he's you know he's a kind of the number five type of hitter that he's been for most of his career. And maybe you can put him at the number two spot. And you can go Rayleigh and him or you can go Rayleigh and JP and then him.

Starting point is 00:24:24 And maybe he can push everybody down. But we haven't seen that guy. We haven't seen Polanco play like that all year. So it's not really feeling great about his ability to come up and just kind of set everybody else up where they should be. Like Julio probably shouldn't be hitting third. Okay. Who should be? Yeah.

Starting point is 00:24:41 Who should hit ahead of him. So like, if you say Luke Grayley, be like, okay, fine. Luke Grayley hits third. Now he's not hitting lead off, right? So JP probably still hits lead off. Yeah. It's just kind of a mess right now that they're trying to figure out.

Starting point is 00:24:54 And they're trying to survive until the deadline or until, you know, once the market opens up, which again, at this point, your solution is get new players, get better hitters. It's really, yeah, it's really all you can do. But again, we're 81 games then. I think you got to start looking at guys for who they have been this year. And you can certainly say, oh, though they might be better than they've been. But to expect, like, Jorge Polanco or Mitch Garver to get the guy that you got last year or that they gave those teams last year, probably not going to see that guy. Now, you want them to get closer to being that guy,

Starting point is 00:25:30 but you're probably not going to get Mitch Garver being a 133 WRC plus the rest of the year. But can he be a 110? Yeah, he could. And that's kind of what he needs to be. So ultimately you have to get new players, but there's only so many new players you can get. What it really comes down to is your stars have to play like stars. And if you just look at this series, Julio, terrible.

Starting point is 00:25:55 Made a couple nice plays defensively fine, whatever. Terrible at the play. Cal Raleigh, terrible. J.P. Crawford, terrible. Nothing else matters. Right. Literally nothing else matters. Everything begins and ends with that.

Starting point is 00:26:08 Yep. if your core is not producing, there's only so much that the secondary characters or the secondary pieces can do to lift the boats. And they won you a game on Saturday. They literally won you that game. You know, well, that and Logan Gilbert looking like a stud. But it was the bottom of the lineup that that won you that game on Saturday

Starting point is 00:26:32 and Logan Gilbert shoving. So yeah, it's unfortunate now. the offense was bad yet again yesterday and really in the series except for Saturday but they did score four like they had a chance to score more uh you know Bryce Bryce Bryce Miller's at the top of the list for those to blame for for Sunday's loss but yes the the offense as a whole is still a problem how all he's under 200 now yeah I think he said two home runs this month he had a really bad series in Miami J.P proper's had a really bad series

Starting point is 00:27:07 including some really bad at bats and big moments. Yeah. So if those three guys aren't hitting, or if all three of those guys aren't hitting at the same time, which is the case right now, you're in a lot of trouble. Right. Well, and the other thing, too,

Starting point is 00:27:20 is there are only so many roster spots that you can open up. Yeah. One because, you know, your core is your core. The other is because, going back to our discussion about Mitch Hanager, with the way that the mayors have operated as an organization, some guys that are making quite a bit of money, they're more likely than not going to keep those guys,

Starting point is 00:27:43 no matter what. They're not going to be willing to move on from them. Right. So Mitch Garver, Mitch Hanager, Corey Polanco, probably here to stay unless they find a way to include those guys in some sort of contract swap at the deadline or near the deadline. So it's just,

Starting point is 00:28:03 it's a mess that Jerry DePoto and Justin Holland are going to have to try and figure out. But, you know, like you said, big part of this is just core has to play better. That's what it is. And, you know, some of it is also you just need to get new players because this just isn't working out. This mix is just not working out. And this is not sustainable whatsoever. All right. That's going to do it for our show. But before we get out of here, a reminder that Lockdown has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube. And now it's also available on Amazon Fire TV and the free Fire TV channels app. Lockdown Sports Today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of Locked-on,

Starting point is 00:28:41 plus our national shows covering every league. Find Locked-on Sports Today now available on the free Fire TV channels app. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Mariners podcast for Colby Patnode. I'm Tad and Gonzales. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L-O- underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Tide-N-Gonzalez and Colby at CPAT-11. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time.

Starting point is 00:29:04 Peace.

Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - The Only Solution to the Mariners' Offensive Issues: Get New Players (And, Well, Get the Core Going)

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