Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - The Polarizing Case of Luis Arraez + the Mariners Are Getting ROASTED by National Media

Episode Date: January 8, 2025

Luis Arraez puts up batting averages rarely seen in today's game, but it's the only tool he brings to the table. For a team on a very restricted budget like the Mariners, while Arraez would certainly help in a key area of need, is his projected $14.6 million salary too prohibitive to land a player of his limited qualities? Ty and Colby discuss that, as well as the Mariners getting nationally criticized for their inactive offseason, and offer their own thoughts on Seattle's dreadful winter so far.Check out our Patreon!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolbySupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Rocket MoneyCancel your unwanted subscriptions and reach your financial goals faster with Rocket Money. Go to RocketMoney.com/lockedon today. SelectQuoteGet the right life insurance for YOU, for LESS, at SELECTQUOTE.COM/LOCKEDON.SelectQuote - They Shop. You Save. GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONMLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime.FanDuelYou can start the season with a big return on FanDuel. New customers can place a FIVE DOLLAR bet and you’ll get started with ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS - if you win your first FIVE DOLLAR BET ! Visit FANDUEL.COM to get started. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

So no one's denying that Louisa Rice helps, but for a team with little money to spend, is he the best option to blow your budget on? Plus, the Mariners Quiet offseason has received a lot of backlash on a national scale over the last few days. We'll talk about that and more coming up here on the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day.

Ahoy, Sailors. It is Wednesday, January. 8th, 2025. This is Tyne Gisalas and Colby Patnode for the Lockdown Merrists podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast network, your team every day. We're going to talk some Luis Arise today. A lot of talk about him going around not just in the Marys fan base, but around the league, really polarizing player. We're going to tell you what side we land on with him. Plus, the Marys are starting to be put on blast for their inactivity this offseason on a national scale. We'll go over some of the scathing thoughts from the likes of Jeff Passon on that.

And we'll wrap things up by giving you our own thoughts on the current, the current state of the offseason as well. But before we get into all that, quick shout out to our title sponsor today, Game Time. Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use the promo code Locked-on MLB. That's L-O-C-K-E-O-N-M-L-B for $20 off your first purchase. And if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show,

check out our Patreon. And all you have to do to check that out is click the link in the description of this. episode. So before we get into Louisa Rise, we do have some news. And I use that term very, very loosely, but the Marrins have made a 40-man roster move, folks, which is the first in a little while since they claimed Nick Raposo off of waivers. You know, this offseason teams are going, hey, I got Juan Soto and, hey, I got, I got Christian Walker, and hey, I got Corbyn Burns and the mares are over here going, um, Hey,

we got a, Hagan, Hagan, Hagan, Danner. Yeah. Um, the only thing I can tell you about Hagan Danner is that his nickname is apparently the ice cream man,

according to baseball reference. com. Yeah. Um, it's not as good as the hash slinging slasher, but, uh, yeah,

it's, I wonder where they got that nickname from, hard to piece out of them together. Well, Ty, you might also want to know that he is a former Little League World Series champion.

Him and his teammate, Nick Prado, led the Huntington Beach team to a World Series title, and he joins the long list. So championship pedigree is what you're saying. That will come in handy

in October, trust me. By the way, you know who else has that championship pedigree? Dan Wilson. You know who else? Gerantel Los Angeles.

You know who else? Hi, Pete. that's right the Mariners are scouting the Little League World Series Anyways Danner Not a lot to talk about really You know he's he's a pile right You throw him on the pile you see what happens They have a lot of those guys added this this winter

It's the one thing they've done they've added Free Agent minor league You know relievers essentially Danner's 95 to 98 with the fastball It's coming from straight over the top It's a very over-the-top delivery. Not a lot of value in that fastball as far as I can tell. Again, I haven't really gotten to watch him pitch.

He threw like eight pitches in his big league career, and then he left the game with the back injury. And he did not, you know, pitching the big leagues last year. So it does seem like the slider has some promise. It's above average. It's not going to be a filthy pitch. He's not a high leverage arm. He's probably more of a sixth inning guy.

But maybe he is your like JT. Sharkwaal replacement somewhere down the line. But the slider is pretty good. he'll get some whiffs on it about average strikeout rates in the minor or well, you know, in the high minors about average strikeout rates. But, yeah, there's, again, it's a right-hander who throws a fastball on a slider. Started mixing around with the curball yet or last year. And it was okay. He only threw it a couple dozen times, but it was okay.

So maybe there's something there. But yeah, it's just a bullpen army. Take a shot on it. and again, when the Mariners take a shot on an arm, pay attention. But other than that, he's just a guy. Yeah, that's enough Hagen-Danner talk. I'll do respect to Hagan-Danner, but that's enough Hagan-Danner talk for one podcast. So let's switch gears here.

Let's talk about Louisa Rize. A lot of talk about him lately. Seems like he's probably going to be on the move this offseason from San Diego. This would be the third time he's been traded over the last, what, three years. Yeah, traded from Minnesota to Miami and the Pablo Lopez deal, of course. I think it's traded from Miami to San Diego near the start of the season this past year. And, yeah, again, it's starting to look like as he enters the final year of his deal that he's going to be on the move again.

And Marin's fans have been talking about him quite a bit. You've been at the center of that discourse, Colby. but he's also been rumored a lot with the Yankees. So there's a lot of about Luis Arise in general just around the league right now. And how good is he really? So let's dive into that a little bit. Luis Arise hits a lot of singles, 161 singles this past year, 160 the year before. He does hit doubles as well.

He's not, I mean, he is. this singles merchant, but he does also hit some doubles and could hit the occasional home run, right? 32 doubles in 2024, 30 in 2020, 33, 31 in 2022. He had 10

homers. That's a career high for him in 2020. And we all remember that 2023 season. He was hitting nearly 400. I mean, he actually was hitting 400 for a little while there at the start of the year. Yeah, it was something like that. He was on a crazy run, cooled off eventually.

finished the year 354, 393, 469, 130 WRC plus 3.3F4 in 2020. He's a very aggressive hitter. He's not going to walk, but he's also not going to strike out. You look at his baseball savant page, it's one of the craziest things you'll ever see because he is literally, I mean, this year, 100 percentile in three categories and first percentile in three categories. he's on both extreme ends of the spectrum 100 percentile in squared up percentage

100 percentile in whiff rate 100 percentile and k rate again he's a very aggressive hitter he doesn't often find himself in two strike counts so he's not going to strike out much and he's up there with you know a fly swatter he's he's not going to whiff much either but that's all he really brings to the table he doesn't hit the ball hard now he did suffer a left thumb injury that he's since had surgery for this year. So obviously, that's naturally going to sap some power. But he is historically not hit the ball hard. That 469 slugging percentage that he put up in 2023 is kind of the outlier. Every year he's consistently been

in the first to seventh percentile and hard hit rate in the league. He's also just not a good athlete. Right. So he's not a good base runner. Really bad base runner. actually he's a bad defender shouldn't play anywhere other than maybe for a space and he's even not good there and so at that point you're talking about a dh who doesn't really hit for power hits a lot of singles again gets on base like there is value that louisa rise brings he is very very elite at one particular thing he's just 20 grade at literally everything else yeah so he's also do what, $14 million this year?

That's the projection, yeah. Final year of our and that's the projection, $14 million. So when it comes to the Mariners, resource allocation is a big thing to consider here as the sun is beaming on my face right now. It is probably the most important thing to consider,

unfortunately. Would it be greater if they could just spend $14 million on a single merchant and stick him at D.A. because they knew they were going to go get power somewhere else and they were going to go get, you know, different skill sets somewhere else. Sure, that would be great. That would be ideal. But that's not the reality we live in, unfortunately. So resource allocation really is the whole story on the Luis Arise debate. Do you need to close the blinds or something? We will do that in the next segment. You guys can deal with it for the next couple of minutes while we finish up our discussion here on Louisa Rise. So yeah, you know, it's it's been widely speculated, projected that the Marys have about $15 to $20 million to spend this off season in total. So if you're not having the Padres eat any of Arise's money, which is possible.

And maybe we can talk about that a little bit, like how much money do they need to eat in order for you to be willing to take on a rise or for you to be more willing to trade for a rise. but $14 million is going to eat basically all the money that you have. It's also worth noting Luis Arais had an 84 WRC plus against lefties last year. So now that hasn't been a problem in the past, but if it starts to become a problem where he's below average against lefties, then he's even less valuable than he is right now. He was only a one-win player last year, like despite having 200 hits. another guy who had 200 hits last year

who was a little bit, who is also really only should play first base or DH, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Like raw hit totals don't tell you anything. Who's the better hitter? Obviously, Vlad is. So just be careful when you're looking at just, you know, we got 200 hits last year.

And it's like, cool, what is the impact of those 200 hits? Again, it's not that a rise couldn't help this lineup. It's not that he doesn't, you know, lengthen the lineup. And it's not like you couldn't get him playing time because, again, you do have, I mean, he is not a second. baseman stops saying he is, he's not. Like, he's a second basement in the way that Thai France is a second baseman. Okay.

And Thai France is actually a better first baseman than he is too. So, yeah, it's all about resource allocation here. Do you want to drop your entire budget on a one win player, on a two win player, who struggled against lefties last year, saw his batting average drop pretty significantly, saw his power numbers drop pretty significantly. And by the way, what happens if he's a two, 80 hitter instead of a 315, 320 hitter. Well, he's not going to make up the walk.

He's not going to walk to make up the on base. So it's possible that you could be acquiring a 280, 310 guy who doesn't slug, you know, more than 370. And then you kind of have J.P. Crawford minus the base running and the defense. And it's like, is that the guy you want to drop your entire budget on? And by the way, not only that, you're giving up prospects to get him. Like, you're not getting him for free.

So, well, especially if they're eating some money. Right. Right. So again, before we wrap this up because we are running out of time here, how much money would the Padres need to eat for you to be like, okay, I'm on board with that? Half. Okay. And then what's the best prospect you're giving up?

If they're eating half. If they're eating half? Yeah. Maybe a Michael O'Royle. Like, he's just, I just don't think he's that valuable. you know, and there's a reason why he gets getting traded, like over and over and over again. And, you know, he didn't get traded for a ton when he went from Miami to San Diego. There's a reason for that.

Like, teams around the league look at this guy and they're like, yeah, he helps, but he's the like a difference maker. Does he take you from good to great? No, he doesn't. He's not that type of player. So, again, could he help? Yes. Is he worth exploring at certain cost? Yes.

Is he worth exploring for the Mariners at his current $14 million arbitration number? No, he's not. He's not. He doesn't help you that much. You'd be better off splitting that $14 million between like a Jose Iglesias and, you know, Paul DeYoung and, you know, pick an outfielder and a reliever. Like you probably spread that $14 million around three different players and pick up a second baseman. maybe a fourth outfielder and a pretty good reliever for that money. You'd be better off than just giving it all to Luis Arise.

Again, it's all about resource allocation. So we're going to switch things up, talk a little bit about how the national media views the mayor's off season so far and they're inactivity thus far. But first, I'm going to go fix my drapes and then I'm going to tell you about Rocket Money. Did Rocket Money help you find any subscriptions you forgot about or that you were paying for twice? That definitely happened to me. I had a few subscriptions that I didn't even realize I was still paying for. And Rocket Money made it so easy to track them all down. It's like having a personal assistant for your finances.

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So, hey, stop me if you've heard this before. The Marins haven't done anything this off season. I mean, I guess, you know, they picked up Hagen Danner off of waivers today. Woo. But, yeah, our disappointment, or the disappointment in general with the mayor's lack of activity this offseason has gone beyond our little show here. The mayor's fan base. It's reached a national scale at this point, folks. Started with, or at least I believe it started with Robert Murray, a fan cited a few days ago during his.

live stream. He shared his thoughts on the disappointment of this offseason for the mayor's. Jeff Passon wrote a few paragraphs the other day on ESPN about the disappointment of this offseason. Brad Doolittle of ESPN followed that up with his thoughts on the mayor's off season. And it doesn't just stop there. But I did want to focus primarily on what Passon and Doolittle had to say and then get your thoughts on this, Colby. So Passon said the the Mariners quote are actively blowing one of the best opportunities in baseball. They have a historically good pitching rotation as the envy of 29 other teams. And despite a payroll that is a full $80 million below the luxury tax threshold,

they haven't spent a single dime this winter. Smart owners understand windows and the mariner's are trying to thread the needle by transitioning from their current one into the next generation when a number of excellent homegrown bats join the lineup, which makes the opportunities right now optimal. Seattle is two bats away from being a genuinely

dangerous team. Prices and years are dropping. Bregman would be perfect. Alonzo would bring middle of the order juice. This should not be hard. That's not how it works in Seattle. The mayor has spent most of the winners seeing what they could get for one of their starters, Luis Castillo.

Sooner rather than later, they could find themselves in the same position as the Chicago Cubs, where trading prospects is the only way to acquire top-flight talent, and that is painful for any organization that would love to see the fruits of its home ground talent, not barter it. For all the urgency of Seattle's situation, the ownership group has shown zero inclination to be nimble and take advantage of market forces working in its favor. Maybe that changes, but the likelihood outcome is the mayors seek bargain contracts again and find themselves one more time victimized by self-inflicted half measures. Quite a shift in tone from the person who infamously said a couple years ago,

Mariners fans are spoiled. Yeah, he's really championed the Mariners recently and really liked what they've done. And even when other people didn't get it, Heyman, Pass and totally saw the vision and he was on it. So, yeah, not necessarily like they lost an ally because he's a reporter. Like he doesn't, teams don't have reporters who are allies. They're not supposed to at least. But yeah, it's well said. It's well reason.

And I think, you know, just in general when, you know, you wonder like as us, as Mariners fans, like we're so close to it. And you and I, we literally talk about this every day. You know, are they as close as we think? they, you know, really like, are we just too close to see anything? And then you look at these guys who have these national guys who have outside perspectives and they're looking at the roster and they're going like, what are you doing? You have this, you have this, you have this. Like you have, it is all laid out there and you have done the job of the rebuild perfectly. You have this great pitching staff. You have

homegrown stars in your lineup. You have support players. Go out there and do the thing that gets you over the top. Like you told fans you were going to do three, four years ago when you started this thing. So, you know, the fact that passing is, is, you know, basically reiterating what we all think and the fact that other national guys are, you know, are speaking like we're speaking. It's just a good reminder of that, like, not only does this suck because we're bored and like, you know, the mayors need to do something and we want content. It sucks because the Seattle Mariners are, you know, an aggressive offseason away from being one of the best teams in baseball. Yeah. And they just refuse to do it. And, you know, I think, you know, passing correctly mostly points the finger here at the front office or at the ownership group.

But it is, you know, and again, I'm not obviously the front office would love to have the budget to go get Bregman would love to be like, yeah, we can go get Pita Lanzo. That makes sense. Let's go do that. But they don't. They don't. And so, you know, Passan nails it. And I think it's good that it's not just the echo chamber of the Pacific Northwest that the biggest name in baseball, right, in like baseball reporting, like the biggest name. Yeah.

Is directly calling them out. And, you know, you hope, you hope that they continue to do more of it. But ultimately, does it make a difference? Because you know who else has passed? Passons been highly critical of? The Oakland A's ownership didn't make a difference, right? Because unfortunately, what silence buys or what money can really. buy you is the ability to not give a damn about the court of public opinion.

But you just hope that maybe you can shame them enough that they finally put their money where their mouth is. But more than likely, they'll just continue to lie and lie and throw Jerry just under the bus. They'll throw Scott's service under the bus. They'll throw the players under the bus because and some fans will believe it. They'll buy it because they want to because those things can change. and ownership probably isn't going to change.

But, you know, it is nice that other people like from like the 35,000 foot level instead of us who are at ground level, they're looking at this. They're seeing what we're seeing. And they're going to like, yeah, this is. There's something special in Seattle and you're blowing it. Yeah. Yeah. Right.

And you're in danger of becoming the, you're in danger of becoming the blue jays is what it is. Like the blue jays are you in two years. years if you don't figure this out. And even the Blue Jays, at least they tried to spend money. Yeah. At least they've tried to salvage it, right? Right. They've failed repeatedly to, but they've at least tried, like we know they got very aggressive on Otani. They were very aggressive on Soto. They had one of the highest offers on Wonsoto this off season. You know, they tried for Corrin Burns after that. They've, they're still trying for Anthony Santander. The Blue Jays at the very least have not let their short their shortcomings over the last few years stop them from trying to save it.

I want to also read what Brad Doolittle had to say in his piece yesterday. Quote, we have all had fun with Jerry Dupoto's comments about trying to win 54% of the time, but they are worth thinking about. DePoto was referring to 10-year measurements with the assumption being that within that time frame, you'd have a breakout playoff season or two, and you do it without really bottoming out. Well, the Marrars are the wrong franchise to take that approach, at least from a historical perspective.

The Maras didn't get to 500 until their 15th season and didn't get to the playoffs until year 19. They still have never been to the World Series. This organization is desperate for high-level winning, and desperation typically leads to a certain level of boldness. Seattle's past 23 seasons have yielded two playoff wins. Over DePoto's time, as Seattle's chief baseball exec,

the Maras have won 51.2% of the time. The standard of deviation and wins during those seasons is relatively low, which is really the problem. When you aim for the middle, don't be surprised when you land there. With risk comes at least the possibility of reward. And an organization that has never won anything really doesn't have that much to lose. Anything that stands out to you from that? Nothing to lose except some money. And as we know, losing money is just the worst thing in the world for a billionaire.

Which, by the way, is also BS because baseball owners don't lose money. ever, ever. Even in 2020, they did not lose money. They're going to get that back when they sell the team, guaranteed. They got it back the next year anyways. Like, yeah, the only thing that the Mariners have to lose is John Stanton might have to write a check to cover some losses for a year. And even that is highly unlikely. So that's why they're constantly aiming for the middle because it's the safest place to be.

And so, yeah, I mean, again, he's not wrong. I do think the little disingenuous to put Jerry DePoto's like win percentage in there when he had a couple, he had the big like 99 loss season in the middle. And, you know, the first three years, blah, blah, blah. Like what has it been since 2021 when like the rebuild was kind of kicked off? It's probably been about 54%. It's not where you want it to be. But he's right.

You know, if you aim for the middle and you hit that. like don't be surprised yeah like you can't be like oh i can't believe that we didn't do better than this like sure you can that's what you wanted to do this is where you wanted to be so yeah he's right and uh you know unless we forget what what kevin mather said this is the organization's philosophy this isn't even really jerry depotis philosophy i mean he might share that but like this has been the organization's philosophy since since nintendo bought it You know, we want to be somewhere in the mid, mid 80s and win total. And, you know, sometimes it breaks right and we get a little.

Sometimes that's going to swing in our direction and then, you know, hey, maybe we'll make a run. But yeah. Yeah. And Jerry DiPoto, and this is what we've talked about, one of the reasons that he probably hasn't been fired yet is the fact that he is, over the last few years at least, consistently. I mean, really, outside of one year and the years in which they were very clearly rebuilding, he has consistently built teams that have landed in that range. We talked about this. This is what,

four or five years now in his tenure where the Mariners have gotten to the final series of the season with a shot to make the playoffs. And they've missed all five times, all four times. But they've always been within one or that basically every other year or really now for the last two years, they've been within, you know,

three games of the playoffs with four or five to go. They've gotten to that final series in a position to make the playoffs. and they haven't. And why is that? It's because that's where they want to be. Yeah. Like they are hitting what they're aiming for.

And what they're aiming for is just not good enough. Nope. Man, we all deserve more than that. So let's dive a little bit deeper into our thoughts on what has happened or hasn't happened this off season in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the lockdown airs podcast is once again, brought to you by game time. So I used to live in New Mexico and down in New Mexico there are zero pro sports teams and a lot of bands and artists I listen to skip going there more often than

not. So when I moved to Toronto where there's a baseball team, a basketball team, a hockey team, even a soccer team and there's great music being played every night in the city, I was right in my element. When I want to catch a ball game or my wife and I want to see a band, I always get my tickets through game time. And that was the case well before game time sponsored our network and before I even join the network because it is truly the best ticketing service out there hands down i truly truly believe that and now it's getting even better thanks to game time picks game time picks filters out the fluff to show you only incredible deals on great seats so you don't have to waste time searching through thousands of tickets i can just go on the app it'll show me the best deal right away

it'll show me the exact view i'll have and most importantly it'll tell me exactly what i'm going to pay with GameTimes all in pricing, so there are no annoying little fees that pop up at the last second. Take the guesswork out of buying tickets with GameTime. Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use the promo code Locked-on MLB, that's L-O-C-K-E-O-N-M-L-B, for $20LB for $20. Download GameTime today. What time is it? GameTime. And you're listening to the locked on Mariners podcast. So again, it's January 8th. The Mariners have made a few 40-man roster moves,

but no clear 26-man roster move. They haven't acquired a guy that I can go, yeah, that guy is going to be a part of the Major League roster for at least most of 2025. We know that it's not for a lack of trying. We've heard them in on quite a few players. We know that they've been trying to trade Luis Casas. STO and meet this very specific criteria that they're likely not going to meet.

We know that they had interest in Gavin Lux. We know that they had a lot of interest in Heiss on Kim. They didn't get either one of those guys. And while like Tristan Kossis, who we talked a lot about on the show and Nico Horner haven't moved. At this point, again, like we talked about with Kossis on Monday's episode, how do you get those guys? You know, we know that they lost out on, on Carlos Santana.

And that was apparently one of their biggest targets this off season. That's one of the biggest things we wanted to accomplish, which is a whole other issue, right? The bigger issue, really. Yeah, yeah. That he was their main target. As much as like, look, you can connect everything to ownership and ownership's cheapness, right?

Every single decision can be led back to John Stanton, right? And that ownership group, because the budgets that they have set for this front office, ultimately leads the front office down the avenues that they ultimately go down, right? Right. But it is on the front office to, as unfair as that is, as unfair as these restrictions are, it is on this front office to do the best they can within those restrictions. And again, I mentioned it. Highson Kim, Carlo Santana, Gavin Lux, Tristan Kossis, Nico Horner.

at every direction they've turned, they failed to get these guys. They failed to get their guys that they felt that they could land realistically within these restrictions. And that's the front office issue, right? Can still be tied back to ownership. Don't get me wrong. But the front office has to execute. That's the name of the game in sports in general. Whether it's the players, whether it's the front office, whether it's ownership, you have to execute.

And right now they're not executing. And so it's not, you know, I've seen people theorize that, hey, maybe they're trying to wait this out. No, they're not. We know that they've tried on quite a few players. And yeah, while there's still options remaining that realistically fit for the mirrors, that fit within their restrictions, that fit at positions of need, they have failed on quite a few fronts. And it's very disappointing to see. Right. Yeah, I mean, the only way to change the narrative is to actually do it.

you know, like it's, I know some people are like, oh, they're waiting for the Roki Sasaki thing. And we talked about this on our Patreon yesterday. Like to what end are they waiting on Roki Sasaki to. Yeah, I don't get how that benefit. Like, okay, he signs with the Dodgers. And he signs with the Padres. And you weren't trading like Castillo at either of those teams anyway. So it just, you know, it's just one of those things.

Like, even if he signs with you like, okay, does that mean you're going to take less for Castillo? you would. Maybe, but does that really actually help? Maybe, but probably not. I just, I don't get that, that line of logic that like, we're waiting, we're waiting on that market to what end would be my, to be my retort to that. But yeah, there's no question about it. The Mariners front office has had a really bad offseason. Um, you know, and, and it's, it's frustrating about this is that like the Mariners have had good off seasons. I look back at the 20, 21 off season, which was off of the, you know, off of the COVID year. They lost money.

Lockout. Right. There was a lock out of the middle and they still manage Gino, Winker, Frazier, Ray. Robbie Ray. Yeah. Go do that. And then even last off season, now it didn't work out that great. But Garver, Polanco, Rayleigh, Santos, like, you can still go do that.

Like, and that would be a sign that you're. you're trying to win and all that. But yeah, it's it's not the first time that they've had disappointing transactional periods. It's not the first time that they've misread the market. You know, it's not the first time that they've whiffed on their first second and third choice, you know, and typically they just, you know, typically that happens in the summer. Whereas this last year, no, they actually kind of nailed the summer. And they are right now screwing up the winter. And again, it has to be crystal clear here because, well,

Jerry and Justin need to do better at their jobs. They are being set up to fail. And that is by far the biggest story. And just like the grand picture of the Seattle Mariners, the fact that the front office, the baseball people are being set up to fail is the big story. But that doesn't mean we ignore that the people who are running the baseball side of things are currently failing.

Well, and they know what they signed up for, especially this year. Because like, look, we can talk about previous off seasons where the rug was pulled out from under them. They thought they were going to have more money than, yeah, yeah. We know that. We know that. That that has happened that they were told they were going to have this and then they ended up getting X. Three years in a row now. They,

they expected this. They knew. Right. But like, they, they, they know at this point, right? They know what they signed up for. They know who they're working for. Like I said, this is on them ultimately to work within these restrictions and to figure. It's not fair to them. It's not fair to them, right? Yep. It's, they're being set up to fail and changing your GM and your base, that's not guaranteed to help you because guess what? The next group that comes in, they're also going to be set up to fail.

The one constant through all of this. Ownership. Has been ownership. Even when they went from Nintendo to Stanton, Stanton was in the old ownership group. He agreed with that philosophy. So until you get a complete outsider out of here, whoever has these baseball operation jobs, they are going to be set up to fail in the long run because that is the way they want it. That is the way that the people in charge want it.

Again, we can talk about Jerry and we can talk about Justin and their failures in this offseason. It's been a massive, massive failure. One that if it looks like this in the next, you know, in a month and a half when pitchers and catchers report, it's worth them losing their job. Absolutely. That is true. But you cannot, you cannot ignore just because it's.

People don't want to talk about it. We don't want to talk about it. But we cannot ignore the simple fact that John Stanton, Chris Larson, that entire ownership group is setting up Jerry and Justin to fail. Obviously, you know, it's the thing that we've said for for years now, right? As, you know, again, as things have come out about them, you know, expecting to have a certain budget and winding up, you know, lower than that, right? But again, the conversation shifts, especially as,

the years go by to how are you able to work within these restrictions? How are you able to build the best team possible within those restrictions? Because the restrictions are the restrictions for anyone. Whether it's Jerry Depoto or someone else. That's running the show in the front office.

So and right now, like Jeff Passon said in the blurb that we read last segment, you got to start trading your prospects. Now is that possible? Obviously the market right now is more leaning towards major league or major leagueer trades,

but we have seen prospect for major leagueer trades. That still has existed to a certain degree this offseason. Still possible to make those deals happen, and you have arguably one of the best farm systems in baseball to trade from. And look, Gavin Lux, I know for a fact that they've really liked Gavin Lux for the last couple years, and that they were talking to the Dodgers this offseason about Gavin Lux. He ends up going to a team that, frankly, on paper, doesn't really need Gavin Lux. Now, I know they're planning on turning him into like a utility player or something like that.

I don't know, whatever. But the Reds ended up trading competitive balance round A selection and Mike Cerroda, which I think the equivalent for the Mariners would be their comp round A pick that they got, which is a better pick than the one that the daughters received from the Reds. By one. By one. But still. and like Tai Pete.

Yeah. Sounds about right. Look, for two years of Gavin Lux who may not be better than just a league average bat, it's pretty pricey. But the prices are the prices. That's the price, yeah.

The prices are the prices and you have to get better. And if you don't have the money to spend to get better and you don't have the major league pieces to make major leaguer for major league of trades happen where you still feel like

you're ultimately better at the end of the day, This is your only avenue. Right. I said this on the Patreon show. You just need to get on the freaking board. 26-man edition. Even if it's just like, here's Paul Sewell.

Okay, cool. Great. You're on the board with someone that is definitively going to be a part of your 26-man roster for at least a good portion of 2025. Here's Donovan Solano. Here's, you know, Jose Iglesias. These are guys who- You just need to show that you're trying to get better.

Like, you are getting- That you understand that you are not where you need to be. Are you getting marginally better? Probably. That's what we're looking at. Is that any sort of addition that they make at this point is probably just going to be a marginal upgrade. But at the very least, you're trying something. You're taking a shot on something.

You don't want to be like the Mariners are trying to make like an impact move. And it's like, okay, cool. But while you're chasing that impact move, you're not getting better around the margins. And those things matter too. You have to have a comprehensive view of your offseason. And again, like, all right, you're waiting for the Roki situation to clear up. Again, I asked to what end, but also, but also you can still do stuff before you find out about Roki. Like, you don't have to wait on Roki to add, you know, a mid-leverage reliever right now.

You don't have to wait on Roke. You don't have to wait on Roki to give Ahmad, Amad Rizario $2.25 million. Yeah, that pissed me off today. That pissed me off today. Like that's basically a free shot on someone who is like a 280. Probably probably better than Ryan Bliss right now. At the very least gives you insurance that if you're wrong. And if he's not,

and if he's not better than Ryan Bliss, what did you lose? Nothing because you could just DFA Rosario or you could trade Rosario. And that's also a player. And that's also a player that we know they've had interest in. Right. So I just, I don't, because right now,

honestly what it looks like and that this is the biggest like this is the biggest indictment of the Mariners offseason in my opinion is it looks like they don't have a plan like they're just running like chicken with their heads cut off they did they don't have a plan well and it looks like they're basically pushing all their chips in on the market is going to fall specifically this way and we're going to be able to take advantage of it in this way and this way and this way once that They're trying to doctor strange the thing. There's four million, blah, blah, blah, 14 million. And we've seen the one outcome.

Right. Yeah. In which we win. And that's what we're going to shoot for. And it's like, so you're delusional is what you're telling me. You're not. And that also tells me you're not trying to win. You're not.

If you have one path to winning this off season or whatever, you're terrible at your jobs. And you should be fired. So that's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us. on the Lockdown Marrars podcast for Colby Fatnode. I'm Tiding Azalus. Be sure you give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Marrers. You can follow me at Tyning Gonzalez and Colby at C-Pat-E-1-1.

We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby, and the show at Lockdown Mariner's. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.