Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - The REAL Reason the Seattle Mariners Likely Won't Trade For Nico Hoerner | Mailbag Monday

Episode Date: January 12, 2026

It's Mailbag Monday! Ty and Colby answer your Seattle Mariners questions, including how Alex Bregman signing with the Cubs could impact the M's and their pursuit of Nico Hoerner. Click to learn more ...about the Everydayer Club!Join the Ahoy, Sailors Discord server!Check out our Patreon!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolbySupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Rocket MoneyLet Rocket Money help you reach your financial goals faster. Join at http://RocketMoney.com/LOCKEDONFanDuelToday's episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Every Friday night, before the games tip off, FanDuel gives fans a new way to kick off the weekend with NBA Happy Hour. Check the FanDuel app and see what’s dropping during NBA Happy Hour — every Friday from 6 to 7:30 PM Eastern.FanDuel — the Official Sportsbook Partner of the NBA.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Does Alex Breggman signing with the Cubs actually help the Mariners? We'll answer to that and more coming up here on Mailbag Monday. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors, it is Monday, January 12, 2026. You're listening to the Locktime Marries Podcasts,
Starting point is 00:00:28 part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network. My name is Tadeng Azales, and I'm joined as always by my host. We'll be Pat node. We're two lifelong Mariners fans have been covering the team for over half a decade. And today, we're going to open up the mailbag like we do here every single Monday and answer some of your Mariners questions. But before we do, I want to shout out our title sponsor today, FanDuel. Playoff football is here and FanDuel is officially in playoff mode. So visit FanDwell, an official sportsbook partner of the NFL and grab your profit boost pack every NFL playoff game day, including tonight.
Starting point is 00:01:01 Hopefully that game is a lot better than the one that I actually got a chance to watch yesterday. I only got to watch one game yesterday, and it was Pat's Chargers. It was by far the worst one. Yeah, I didn't even finish watching it. That's how bad it was. But also old man Rogers against the Texas defense. I don't like my chances. You also have that the Bears were cook, so, you know.
Starting point is 00:01:23 True, fair. We'll see what happens. But, yes, a lot of big game energy from the first round of the playoffs, except for the one game. you happen to be able to watch. Yikes. Anyway, this is a baseball podcast, so let's answer some baseball questions.
Starting point is 00:01:42 Nate wants to know, clearly the Cubs are going for it, so it's hard to see them trading Nico Horner, even at the risk of getting nothing for him if he leaves a free agency next year. Is there anyone we could offer that would help their MLB club this year
Starting point is 00:01:56 and make it worth it for them? Mariners, Major League roster is a lot like their minor league, the farm report, right? it's a little top heavy and there's not a lot of depth. Yeah. You get past that top layer. And so, yeah, the major league for major league or swap is tough.
Starting point is 00:02:12 I think that, you know, in general, could the Cubs be interested in Bizarro, Spire, Brash, Munoz, heck, maybe even for rare? You can trade them. You can have, you can trade them if you don't need to. I don't think they would, but you can. Like, yeah, I think that would be of interest to the Cubs and it might kickstart something. and then it's like, okay, but are they going to want to Cole Young on top of that? Like, it just kind of is one of those things where there's not a good fit. And this was true before the Bregman signing as well.
Starting point is 00:02:44 I really honestly don't think the odds of the Mariners acquiring Niko Horner have gone up or down since the acquisition of Bregman because the odds were always pretty low. But I don't think that we should just assume that the Cubs are going to act like a big market team. they never really have before. And so I don't think that we should just assume, oh, they'll just eat it and they'll be fine. The cubs were shopping Horner last winter. They shopping him this winter. And now even after pregnant,
Starting point is 00:03:14 they will not close the door on keeping Horner because they know that they're not going to get an extension done. And so it's kind of one of those things where it's like, look, do I think it's super likely that Horner gets traded? No. Did I think it was super likely before? No, no, I don't like it's super likely after. And I think the problem is the same as it was prior to what happened this weekend.
Starting point is 00:03:38 Is that like if they're not willing to take a prospect package, what do you have to offer? And this is kind of the problem with just about anybody the Mariners went to acquire. If you can't get that player for prospects, you're in a bit of a pickle because it's very difficult with how close you are to your budget already to continue to add death pieces. after you trade away these, you know, these contributors. So that's the big problem with any kind of trade is like, hey, once you start telling me like I need major league talent in return for this guy, the trade gets very, very dicey. Even if you want to consider the Mariners have some starting pitching depth,
Starting point is 00:04:19 which they don't. But even if you're okay with Logan Evans, right, you're not trading two years of Logan Gilbert for one year of Horner. You're not trading three years of Kirby. You're not trading four years of Wu or Miller. So it's just one of those things where it just, it's a really tough fit right now because the Mariners want to trade their good prospects. They're not trying to get cheap, right?
Starting point is 00:04:41 They're just want to trade prospects, not their major league talent because they don't have the major league talent really to spare right now. They need to add major league talent, not subtract from it. So yeah, it's a really weird spot. But, yeah, a still in corner could be made available this winter. I think he could be traded. I would just say, like I've always said, if the demand is that there's a major league player involved, like a good major league player involved, it's going to make it very difficult for the Mariners to acquire him. Yeah, I think it's, you know, less about like, oh, well, now they've had a Bregman,
Starting point is 00:05:14 so why would they trade Horner? Because they were clearly like trying to go for it and trying to win a championship in 2026. And that's true, right? And that makes it, that makes, you know, keeping Horner making. make even more sense but I think in the end it's less about that and more about
Starting point is 00:05:34 can the Mariners actually fit the bill right can they meet the asking price that the cubs are putting out there and it might not be as ridiculous as like yeah we want Brian Wu for Nico Horner and that's the only way we're trading Nico Horner is if you're going to give us something
Starting point is 00:05:52 and just insane right if you're just going to blow us out of the water I don't think it's necessarily that. I think it's also just like, even if it is, you know, Gabe Spire plus a prospect, is that something the mirrors are willing to do? Do they feel like they can withstand the blow in the bullpen, even though that they're going to be adding an everyday player,
Starting point is 00:06:12 a really good everyday up-the-middle player? Like, do they feel that they can withstand the blow in the bullpen when they have spent this off-season trying to bolster that group, especially after all those guys through as many innings as they did this past year? you know, or like, you know, Randy, I don't know why Randy or Rosarana would appeal to the Cubs, but I'm just using it as an example here. Just, you know, for, you know, just the general discussion about major league for major league swaps for the Marrists. Like, is that something the Marys feel like they can withstand trading Randy or Roserana to get better elsewhere?
Starting point is 00:06:45 Like, I don't know, you know. So I think it's, again, I think it's less about the presence of Bregman and more just about can the mariners meet that. cost regardless of what the situation is in Chicago. Yeah. It's hard to see it. Yeah. And that's where I get hung up right now. So I think if you dangled Matt Brash,
Starting point is 00:07:11 the Cups would get interested real fast. But again, how do the Mariners then go and replace Matt Brash? Right. They kind of can't. So they're in a weird spot. Yeah. At that point, you just have to accept like our bullpen is just going to be worse. going into 2026.
Starting point is 00:07:28 Yep. I hope you can recreate Matt Brash, but there's no guarantee that you can and the likelihood is you won't. But maybe, maybe Hopi is that guy. I don't know. But yeah,
Starting point is 00:07:40 I think that's what we're talking about to get like the interest, because you're not trading one of your starters for Horner, but I think if you put Matt Brash on the table, I think the Cups get interested real fast, but like Ty's been talking about, how do you weather that?
Starting point is 00:07:54 Like, is the tradeoff worth it? could be. It might not be. And there's no reason to think right now that they would trade Horner just for a pure prospect package. Now, again, maybe like I talked about on Twitter yesterday, maybe they just see this as such a great opportunity, too great of an opportunity to pass up. You know, with all the, because of how limited the market is for up the middle players and the demand for them. And obviously the marons are not going to be the only team that call the Cubs about Niko Horner. this winter. So with the kinds of offers that I think would be very lucrative that are going to be, you know, waved at the Cubs.
Starting point is 00:08:34 Could they just see this as like, all right, this is too good to pass up on? But in general, do I think that they're going to take a pure prospect package for Nico Horner? I have a hard time seeing it. You know, because like, yeah, last year, they were willing to trade him even when they were simultaneously attempting to go for it. but they were trying to do that specifically for Luis Castillo. So, yeah, we can use the evidence of like, well, they were willing to do it last year when he had two years left of club control. So clearly they would do it now that he only has one year left with club control. But like, it's probably still for a major leaguer swap. It's probably still for a guy that helps them in 2026.
Starting point is 00:09:19 So we'll see again, maybe maybe they just see, you know, like maybe the the barons are willing to offer them like gerangelo sanger and michael o'royo right not saying that they actually are but like maybe the merrists are willing to do that because they just love nico warner so much and the cubs look at that and they go okay well those guys don't help us in 2026 but that's just too good to pass up on maybe that happens maybe but i have a hard time seeing it all right we will answer more of your questions in just a moment but first a reminder of this episode of the lockdown airs podcast is brought to you by Fandual. Football playoffs are here, and Fandual is officially in playoff mode. Every game day during the NFL playoffs, Fanduel is giving customers even more ways to get in on the action. Because right now, every NFL playoff game day, Fandual users get a profit boost pack waiting for them inside the app.
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Starting point is 00:10:41 playoffs get rolling. So visit Fandul, an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, and grab your profit boost pack every NFL playoff game day. And you're listening to the Locktime Errors podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Thank you so much for making us your first listen for all things, Mariners. And also thank you for making Lockdown the number one sports podcast network. You are a live your team every day. Now take it up a level and go add free. Join the Every Day or Club today and get locked on Mariners with no interruptions,
Starting point is 00:11:11 members only Discord access and more, all for just $5 a month or $50 a year. Go to lockdownmeritors.supercast.com or check the link in the show notes to learn more. And before we get back into your questions here on Mailback Monday, I got a shout out special lady in my life and also in our community. She is our number one viewer on YouTube. You can see this in our analytics goalie. Shout out to my wife, Caroline, whose birthday is tomorrow. Happy birthday. It's my beautiful, beautiful wife.
Starting point is 00:11:43 She's 100% real. She's to my beautiful, very real wife, Caroline. Very real Canadian wife. Yes. Again, her birthday is tomorrow, but obviously we're not doing a show tomorrow. So if you're watching on YouTube, greatly appreciate it. If you'd help me out and wishing this beautiful woman, a happy birthday down in the comments below. Sweet Caroline.
Starting point is 00:12:08 This isn't a Red Sox podcast. Thank God. Ross has a question here. Rank by likelihood for 2026. Dominic Canzone, equal or better? than his 2025 regular season. Victor Robles equal or better than his 2024 season. Luke Rayleigh equal or better than his 2023 and 2024 seasons.
Starting point is 00:12:32 At least one is within 10% of their peak. All three are closest to how they ended 2025. I mean, I think mathematically speaking, the correct way is to say that at least one of them will be within 10% of their peak. Yes. Those are just the best odds. but if you throw that one out, I think Rayleigh is the most likely to bounce back to where we think he needs to be.
Starting point is 00:12:58 Then I would say second most likely is probably that they're all closest to out they ended 2025. Now, I don't know if you mean specifically like Canzone how he looked in the playoffs or if you can just repeat what he did, blah, blah, blah.
Starting point is 00:13:16 So it's a little tough to answer it that way. But I would say Rayleigh is the most likely guy of the three to kind of bounce back to their norm. And then I can zone and in Robles, I have a really hard time imagining Victor Robles ever being anything close to what he was. I mean, he was one of the best headers in all baseball. Right.
Starting point is 00:13:37 So I would say that's far in a way the least likely. But I don't think it's very likely that Don can't own is a 140 WRC plus again. He's a 300 header. Yeah. Yeah. I just, I don't see that. Because it wasn't just power output, right? it was also high, high batting average, you know, and I just, I don't think Kenzo, like, his swing is, yeah,
Starting point is 00:13:55 I don't think his, like, swing is conducive to a high batting average over the course of a full season. You know, even if, even if he does kind of pick up where he left off in the regular season, I'm saying, not in the playoffs. Like, even if he does kind of carry that over into 2026, which would be great. I still don't think that he's going to be, like, a 300 hitter. He doesn't have to be, but, like, yeah, that's, I think if Canzone proves season every day type of bat, It's going to be because he gets 250 with a decent on base and then he's going to slug a lot. I think that's the path to Canzone being a, you know, an everyday type of guy.
Starting point is 00:14:30 But I would say that is more likely than ever seen second half Victor Robles again. So, you know, it's, I would say to using all the options, the most likely is at least one percent or at least one of them is within 10 percent of their peak. the second most likely is that Rayleigh is is gets back to 23 24 so uh I would say how they ended 2025 is probably the third most likely I think Canzone repeating what he did last year is uh fourth and I think Robles being what he was in 2024 is is far and away the least likely yeah I mean the safest bet like for number one would probably be like all three are closest to how they ended 2025 yeah who knows how Rayleigh is going to bounce back, but I'm pretty optimistic about that.
Starting point is 00:15:21 So I'm with you. I'll put him number one as getting, you know, closer to his 20, 23, 24 seasons being equal or better than that. I mean, but like, you know, for him to be equal or better than that, like he's got to be a 129 plus WRC plus guy. So like, I don't know. I kind of feel like maybe I, maybe it's at least one is within 10% of their peak. Maybe that should be number one, actually. Yeah. because I think Rayleigh will bounce back to I think he's going to be a 130 WRC plus though I don't know can he be like 115 120
Starting point is 00:15:55 120 10% of the peak then 1 17 or higher yeah so yeah yeah so I'll do I'll do at least one is within 10% of their peak and that one is specifically for Rayleigh I'll do that number one yeah I'll do the Rayleigh equal or better than is 2023 and 2024 seasons for number two I'll do all three or closest to how they ended 2025 is number three. I'll do Canzone number four and then Robles number five. I think that's how I had it. So yeah. Yeah. Yep. I'm buying a Luke Rayleigh bounce back. And I'm hoping that one of Canzone or Robles is remotely close to their peaks that we've seen them in Mariners uniform. I would like to not be banking on either of those things. But we are right now. All right. Seesaw effect wants to know all the talk has been on trade options, Are there any bets that the Maris could still be interested in in a free agency?
Starting point is 00:16:52 Realistic signing options, not guys like Bichette or Tucker. To me, it starts with, you know, Yoha Macata, you know, play some third, play some DH, Willie Castro, Luis Renhifo. Reese Hoskins. Reese Hoskins, yeah. There just, there aren't a lot of guys, to be honest with you. I think Ramon Uriis might be kind of interesting. resting. It's a war for career WRC Plus, which
Starting point is 00:17:21 honestly kind of makes him like Alec Bone, except he's a better defender and he can also play second. So I watch Ereus as a possibility here. I don't think they're going to dive into the Tommy Fam waters.
Starting point is 00:17:38 There's, you know, I could see him maybe trying to chase a bounce back on McCormick, but they've already got enough issues on their outfield to kind of add another guy like that. I don't see them outy and a free-hielder. I think the only way that they would, you know,
Starting point is 00:17:54 break up the Ref Snyder-Kanzon platoon or the Rayleigh Robles platoon would be for someone like Stephen Kwan, like we talked about on Friday. Like if they traded for like a really, really good outfielder. I don't think they would just sign like a fringe type of outfielder. Probably not to a major league deal. Maybe to a minor league deal, but whatever. Yeah, I think it's Hoskins.
Starting point is 00:18:14 I think it's maybe Andahar. they might have some interest in. Yeah. Yeah. I think those are probably the two biggest. And then Willie Castro, Renhifo, Yohan Moncada, I think three other guys that make a good deal since. I don't think they'll get to this point, really. But I would just mention it because he's still out there. We know the Mariners have really liked Nathaniel Lowe in the past. Do they want him to be the full-time D.H., though? Probably not, which is what his role would be. but he's only 30. You know, he's fit and he has been a target in the past.
Starting point is 00:18:48 So I'll throw him out there as maybe a deeper cut. But yeah, there are, there are a handful of guys who are not in that top tier who still makes sense for Seattle. And honestly, the Mariners, the way the market's going right now, they probably have enough money to get two of those guys that they wanted to. So we'll see what happens. But yeah, I think we've talked about those guys a fair amount and they still all make sense for this club. So yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:19:13 I think those are just to watch. to me though if they are signing a free agent you know a lower tier free agent it's either going to be a guy that can play third or second or you know a super utility type that can also you know play some corn outfield etc but primarily is going to play in the end field that's a that's a roundabout way of saying like i don't think they're going to sign just strictly an outfielder or strictly a dh yeah i would say the nathaniel low and the carlos santanas and the paul colchmits like i just don't see and even maybe recent Hoskins. Yeah. Honestly. Although I think Hoskins as a pure DH makes
Starting point is 00:19:48 more sense because he's right-handed and he can hit for some power. And he probably had the best year of everybody we talked about. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:19:57 So, I mean, with the exception of Makata, who was hurt. So yeah, there are some pretty good options. Well,
Starting point is 00:20:03 they're not exciting options, but there are guys out there who would definitely help this lineup, length of the lineup and provide depth at the same time. So,
Starting point is 00:20:10 yeah, they should definitely be checking those guys out as well. And you're listening to the Lockdown Marriss podcast, part of the lockdown podcast network, your team every day. As always, if you want to hear from me and Colby, even more and help support the show, we have a Patreon. It's called Control the Zone. Not only where we talk, Marys, Seahawks, all that good stuff.
Starting point is 00:20:30 For more information, go to Patreon.com forward slash Control the Zone link in the description of this episode. Also in the description of this episode is the invite link for our new Discord, which we launched last week. we got what 200 people in there now something like that close at least uh yeah and uh it's pretty active now at this point i think people have kind of found their groove in there and i've seen a lot of discussion happening in there so uh if you want to talk mirrors there's also you know football talk in there's you know non sports talking there there's video game discussion all that type of stuff so if that's interesting to you uh join our discord and that's also the best way to connect with us as well all right getting back into your questions here on mailbag monday
Starting point is 00:21:12 Hey, he wants to know. Multiple Mariner trade targets are on two-year contracts with what many believe is a certain and significant lockout coming in 20207. Do you think part of the inability to strike a deal comes from the Mariners not wanting to pay for two years of use when they might only get one? I don't think that's really a factor because I think if it was, we would see the Mariners being just as aggressive on rentals as they have been on the Donovan types. because again, like, if you think you're only getting one year of club control for a guy, why would you pay for two? When you could just pay for one, in theory, the one year guys are cheaper. And, you know, we know that one of the incentives of trading a guy with the one year left on his contract in the winter is you get a lot more.
Starting point is 00:21:54 Like if things go south for the Cubs and they go and try and trade Nico Horner this summer, they're not going to get much for them. That's just the way the deadline works for rentals. So no, I don't think that the Mariners are kind of looking at this to be like, like, oh, there might not be a 2027 season. So we're only going to offer you one year prices on Donovan. I don't see that at all. I think one of the big things that pulls them towards a guy like Donovan is that he's
Starting point is 00:22:19 going to be here in 2027 and he basically can serve as the Randy a Rosarena replacement in left field when we kick him out to have Cole Young and Colt Emerson in our infield. So I think that's, you know, the fact that Donovan has two years is the reason why the Mariners have been as consistently involved with the Cardinals. We got a little thing from Derek Gould, is that his name? Yeah. Cardinals Ryan Divish says that the Mariners are still engaged and they're still talking to the Cardinals about what package of young players it would take to get Donovan.
Starting point is 00:22:53 And so they're still in on that market. And I think a big part of that is because he has two years. If Brennan Donovan had one year of club control left, first of all, he probably would have been traded by now. But second of all, I don't think the Mariners would be nearly as aggressive. as they happen. I think that extra year matters to Seattle. So just based on how they've acted in these trade talks,
Starting point is 00:23:13 I don't believe the Mariners are looking at 2027 as a potential lost year and not something worth investing in in terms of acquisition costs. So no, I don't think that's what's happening. Yeah. And while I do think the lockout is going to be significant and drawn out, I don't think we're going to lose baseball for the entire year. I think baseball will be played to a certain degree.
Starting point is 00:23:36 And at that point, right, like, it doesn't matter how many games, ultimately. It's just I need that player for the run that I'm trying to make. If it's only a 60 game season or whatever, so be it. I'm still trying to win the World Series next year. Right. So, you know, Brendan Donovan helps me do that. By the way, they were worried about 2027, not, you know, being played or being significantly delayed. They'd probably be shopping Logan Gilbert a little bit harder.
Starting point is 00:24:03 Right. Now, now, I get what you're saying from the perspective of, just like, you know, it's obviously the value is different if I'm paying for, you know, 162 games or 100 or 60, right? Because then you're talking about it's essentially a year and a half left of club control, not two years, right? So that should impact the the trade cost, you know, to a certain degree. But, you know, unfortunately, you just, you can't foresee what's going to happen with the
Starting point is 00:24:32 lockout. And for all we know, you know, they actually come together on an agreement. I don't think this is likely, but for all we know, you know, they come to an agreement, you know, in short order and, you know, we don't even miss games, right? Like maybe they have to push some games back, like how they did in 2022, but like you don't even, at the end of it, like, we still play 162 games in 2026 or 2027. Right. Right. Not to mention the offseason next year is probably going to be severely impacted. So it's going to be shrunk down. So the less you have to do next winter, the better in theory.
Starting point is 00:25:04 So I think, you know, as many holes as they can fill in the 2027 roster as possible is actually going to be appealing to the Mariners because they're already going to have a lot. J.P. Crawford and Randy O'Rosan are gone. You know, they're highly doubt they're resigned. So you're already going to have a couple holes. So you can get Donovan to, you know, fill one of those spots. And then you assume Everson is a shortstop. And there you go. You have a couple less moves you have to go make if you get somebody who is under club control through 2027.
Starting point is 00:25:32 So I don't think it's really impacting anything in that regard. But yeah, the point that I was trying to make, though, is like, that's kind of the risk that you have to assume. Yeah. Right. You know, yeah, next or 2027, you could be playing 162 games.
Starting point is 00:25:48 You could only be playing 60, but you don't know for sure. I think this is what at the end of, like if there was no CBA going on next year, like if this was signed and they were five years away from this, you know, talk, do I think the mirrors would be off? offering Sanja and Las Montez for Donovan because they know they're going to get two full years.
Starting point is 00:26:08 No, I don't. I don't think that would change all that much. So yeah, yeah, interesting thought, but I don't, based on the actions of the team and just kind of walking through the strategy that they would be deploying in that case, I don't see that as being the case now. All right. Last question of the day comes from Taylor. How many wins would this current roster get in 2026? what would the floor slash ceiling be? Also, those are our first discord question.
Starting point is 00:26:35 So if you join our Discord, that's another benefit you get. You can also submit mailbag questions in there as opposed to Twitter and Blue Sky. So many of you guys don't have the social media as we use. And this is just a way to keep everything organized. So yeah, there you go. There's your other option. Right now, the Mariners roster as it sits, 85 wins. Yeah, I'm somewhere in the 80s.
Starting point is 00:27:03 to 88 range. Now that obviously changes a bit, like if Colt Emerson pops, right? Sure. Yeah, there's obviously some things that could swing in it. This is me assuming that like Dom Kanzone isn't the guy that we saw last year. But also that he's not terrible. Yeah, Victor Robles is probably a fourth outfielder. Luke really does bounce back a bit, but maybe he's not like a 130 WRC plus guy.
Starting point is 00:27:30 The rotation is healthier. Yeah. Yeah. the bullpen is better spread out, you know, with like the arrival of Ferreira and all that. Cole Young is at least a major leaker. Yeah, yeah. Josh Naylor is, by the way, we talked a lot about, you know, Cal Raleigh regressing, which is going to happen. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:27:55 Josh Naylor is pretty heavy regression candidate, too, because what he did in Seattle last year in just a third of the season, it's not repeat he was a two-win player in a third of a season like that's he's not a six-win player that's that's his peak yeah he's not a six-one player he's only ever been a three-win player once yeah so just keep that in mind like you'll have them for an entire year sure but the value will just probably more than likely be spread out over 162 instead of 54 yeah like i don't think nailer's going to be an MVP candidate which is what he would be if he could spread that 53 or 54 game sample size over the 54 over the span of 162 so just keep there are regression candidates there are boom candidates as well progression candidates as well so you kind of have to
Starting point is 00:28:43 balance all that out and I look at it and I say right now if the over under was 85 and a half I'd wait and see so all right what if cold Emerson is a rookie of the year caliber type of player. 87? I was thinking like 90. I don't think it's going to take more than Colt Emerson. Even if Emerson's like four or five one player? I think it's going to take more than that because I assume that then I assume Cole Young's not going to be very good.
Starting point is 00:29:12 Like my baseline is, you know, based on my assumptions is Cole Young and Colt Emerson, fringe major leaguers this year. I think Robles is a fourth outfield. who doesn't hit much. I don't really trust Canzon. So he's a league average bat. I think Rayleigh or I think Raleigh falls back. I think Naylor falls back.
Starting point is 00:29:34 I think Culeo probably takes a step. I think Randy's a little more consistent with more rest. I think JP is what he is last year, blah, blah, blah. I add all that up and I go, okay, so I'm not going to, if I assume Emerson's already a two-win player, then if he's a rookie of the year candidate and he's a four-five-win player, that's two or three more wins. like I'm not letting that carry Cole Young's projection for me. So I think, yeah, 87. And keep in mind that when we do these,
Starting point is 00:30:03 there's generally like a five game swing in either direction. Right. So, all right. Last one. What if Cal passes the baton to Julio for like legitimate MVP contention? Like Julio's the nine win player and Cal's the six win player. Yeah. And Emerson is just kind of.
Starting point is 00:30:27 And let's say Emerson's like a three win player. I could see 90. Yeah. But that's a lot of like what ifs. Like the floor for this team, by the way, 77, 77, 78. I really don't. I mean, obviously the floor is always catastrophic injuries. And they just, it's a loss year.
Starting point is 00:30:54 But like, realistically, I think the floor, 78 to 81 wins. somewhere in that range. I just don't think the ceiling is very high right now. I think if they stay healthy, their floor is like 82 ends. I just don't think they have the depth for me to think that their floor is a 500 ball club. Like the lineup after you get through one through four, it's pretty dicey.
Starting point is 00:31:20 So I think they need to add at least one more bat to lengthen that lineup a little bit. It probably is another bullpen arm as well. I just, I think there's a real danger here. I think the, I think the bigger danger is that the ceiling's not nearly high enough. But, you know, if Emerson and Young aren't ready to go, which is totally possible since they're 21 and 22 years old,
Starting point is 00:31:45 you are one or two key injuries away from being, you know, a bottom tier roster in the American League. So I, I, I don't love the build right now. I think it's banking on a lot of things going well for you for you to fall in the positive side. Unfortunately has been a constant in the depoto regime. Right. Like you're too much as relying on coin toss is going in your favor.
Starting point is 00:32:13 That's what I feel. I feel about this roster right now. So unless every single one goes in your favor, I have a real hard time. I'm seeing them get to 95 plus wins, which is probably what the goal should be. So I think I'm pretty safe in the 80s. 84, 85 range plus or minus four or five wins. So we'll see what happens. But I don't love the roster right now.
Starting point is 00:32:36 I've not honestly convinced it's better than Houston's at the end of the day, which is a problem. So they have work to do. They go get Donovan. They go get, I don't even know who the reliever would be now at this point. Then, yeah, it's probably more like an 88 to 90 win team. And I feel like at that point there, probably a little better than Houston.
Starting point is 00:33:00 All right, well, that's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marriss Podcast. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. And once again, if you never miss an episode, it's time to make it official. Join the Lockdown Every Day or Club and get ad-free audio, access to our members-only Discord and more, all built for our most loyal fans. Colby Pat Nod, I'm Tadigazales. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L-O-U-U-U-N-Souris.
Starting point is 00:33:23 You can follow me at C-Pat-E-E-E-L-E-E-E-C-P-E-E-E-1. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby, and the show at Lockdown Merrittors. You can also find us on Instagram at Lockdown Merrittors. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.

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