Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - The Ryan Sloan Effect, Jurrangelo Cijntje's Outlook, and More Mariners Draft Thoughts w/ Joe Doyle

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Mariners put the weight of their 2024 draft class on their first two picks. Was that the right call? Joe Doyle, a future star series joins me to break it all down. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, sailors. It is Friday, July 19, 2024.

Starting point is 00:00:27 This is Tiding Azales for the Locked-on Marries podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. On today's show, Joe Doyle. A future star series will break down the Mariners 2024 draft class and also help preview the trade deadline. Tell us which prospects he thinks could get dealt by Seattle here in the next couple weeks. But before we get into our show, shout out to our title sponsor today. Booking.com booking dot yeah. The right stay can make you a fan of any city, even your rivals. Check out booking.com for your stay today. And if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support

Starting point is 00:01:04 the show check out our patreon the link is in the description and you can sign up for a free seven day trial all right let's visit with joe so if you follow mariners content you're likely already familiar with our guest's work he's the host of the overslaught podcast on patreon and a senior draft analyst for future stars series then we could take that even a step further and call him a draft sicko if you will because look he already has his he already has his 2025 mock draft up on futurestar series.com, not even three days after this year's draft wrapped up. So Joe Doyle, welcome back to the show.

Starting point is 00:01:43 Ty Dane. Thank you for having me. So you were down at the draft this week in Texas. Really interesting class for the Mariners. A fun one, but one that is heavily reliant upon the first two picks in this draft, especially the second round pick, Ryan Sloan, because they went significantly overslaught with him. $3 million is a report.

Starting point is 00:02:08 The original slot value of that pick is $1.64 million. Obviously, that has a pretty substantial trickle-down effect on how the marries could approach the rest of the draft and what they could do and what they couldn't do. So first, I want to just get your overall reaction to that draft approach. And then why was Ryan Sloan worth doing that for the Mariners? Yeah, in terms of the draft approach, I would say ordinarily, I wouldn't be a huge fan of it. For me, I like it when a team has some athletic upside in the fourth, fifth, sixth round. I like it when the team has some starter clay that they can kind of work around in the six, seventh, and eighth round.

Starting point is 00:02:54 And by taking Ryan Sloan in the second round, they effectively punted the third round. They punted the fourth round. And depending on what it ends up costing to land Aidan Butler, the, the six foot six inch righty from the juco i would imagine that probably cost them the ability they probably had to punt the seventh and eighth round so uh long story short they you know they they definitely cleaned up with relievers in this class do i think ryan sloan is the type of kid that you do that for absolutely but to to bring it all full circle i guess my my opinion on doing it specifically in the 2024 draft is if you look around at other draft classes from around the

Starting point is 00:03:31 league there was so much trash i mean like to put it kindly this was not a good draft there were not a lot of exciting players to be had in the sixth seventh eighth ninth ninth round so if there was ever going to be a draft to do quality over quantity and kind of take a couple of shots at the all-star apple i think twenty twenty four is probably that year so let's let's dive into ryan sloan a little bit more what do you like about sloan what do you think his upside is all that well Well, I mean, he's already bigger than every starting pitcher on the Seattle Mariners roster. So he's a grown man. He's every bit better than a grown man.

Starting point is 00:04:08 I saw a video of him the other day. And, man, he is built. For an 18-year-old kid, he is built. Yeah. Yeah. There's no beer belly there. It is tree trunk legs. It is broad barrel shoulder. I mean, the kid is built like Lance Lynn.

Starting point is 00:04:23 And that's why I've compared him to Lance Lynn for, you know, this whole time. I heard that I wasn't watching, obviously, but I heard that in the telecasts, they compared him to Garrett Cole. That seems rich. I mean, I'm not saying Ryan Sloan can't become Garrett Cole, but comparing him to the best pitcher of his era is a little rich for my blood. But no, listen, it's fastball, it's cutter, it's slider, it's changeup. The fastball value is going to be something that I watch for in the minor leagues

Starting point is 00:04:54 because at times he would ride the ball, at times he would sink the ball. I think the way that his arsenal is built being so change-up reliant, they might end up going sinker, well, a little bit more sinker change-up rather than forcing ride change-up. He's going to definitely add a cutter with the way that his pitch metrics grade out. The slider, the biggest thing that I have with Ryan Sloan that I'm concerned about, and I think it's the reason that I don't believe in him becoming a number one, is his spin rates on breaking balls was always fringy at best.

Starting point is 00:05:25 I mean, it was definitely below average. We're talking like 2250, 2,300, at least when I saw him. So I don't, I think that will probably preclude him from becoming an ace. But even if he turns into Lance Lynn and you get a solid number two in your rotation for, you know, six, seven years, that's a risk that you take. And, you know, I've said this on other shows. I know people on the radio have said it. People in blogs have said it. High school pitching is not a safe demographic.

Starting point is 00:05:53 but this is about as safe as you're going to get when it comes to a prep arm. So let's talk about Duranelos Sanger, first round pick for the Mariners. You had mocked Trey Yassavage, the East Carolina Ritey to the Marrars, right before the draft. Yassavage fell to them. He was someone that a lot of other outlets had mocked to the Marys at one point or another as well. Felt like that was kind of the slam dunk there, though we had heard Sanger's name a lot with the Mariners as well. What do you think led to them ultimately picking Sanger over Yassavage? Yeah, I would say it's just ceiling.

Starting point is 00:06:31 It's just upside, right? If you trust in your player development staff, I think you look at Sanja, you look at a better athlete, you look at a better spin of the baseball, you look at better release traits, better metrics. I think there's just more interesting clay there. With Yassavage, he's very plug and play. I've said that since like May. It's fastball. It's splitter.

Starting point is 00:06:52 it's slider all of them are above average but with with gerangelo i think there's legitimately a little bit more that can be they can be pulled out of there another thing about treya savage is that's a high mileage arm i mean that guy has thrown a lot of innings two years in a row he also had some strange medical and durability things that came up right before the draft you get less miles on gerangelo you get more interesting clay you get some meta when it comes to the way that his fastball approaches the approaches the plate. I think it was the right choice.

Starting point is 00:07:26 I think for two-thirds of the league, Trey Yassavage would have been the right call, but for teams like the Dodgers, Tampa, Seattle, and some of these more advanced pitching metric teams, I think Gerangelo is going to be the right call. So I know our listeners

Starting point is 00:07:38 are really curious about the switch pitching element with Gerangelo. I've, from everything I've gathered, what I've said on the show and what Colby has echoed as well, is that it's probably not going to last long term. Like it's probably not going to be a part of his major league profile.

Starting point is 00:07:56 Do you agree with that or do you think this is actually something that the Marys could develop into a part of his repertoire? I would say if it does become a part of his repertoire, if it's part of his arsenal, it's probably a problem because it probably means he's in the bullpen. Right? I mean, you just, the idea of Gerangelo having four average to plus pitches from the right side and needing to go to the left side for any reason

Starting point is 00:08:26 whatsoever when we've all seen that from the left side he's 90 to 91 with a worse slider and worse feel for a changeup. I just maybe, hey, listen, maybe we're all wrong. Maybe he is just so much more athletically gifted and Seattle sees untapped potential from the left side. but for me, I just think if you can develop him into having an above average change up with a flat vertical approach angle fastball and a back foot slider, that's probably just as effective against left-handed hitters than is an 80-mile-an-hour slider and a 92-mile-hour fastball. So I think, you know, there could be the situation where it's just not working in a rotation. You've got to throw them in the bullpen. And then you kind of do some interesting, unique, weird things. But so long as this guy is planning on pitching six innings at the big league level,

Starting point is 00:09:20 I just don't see any reason from the pitch left-handed. More for my conversation with Joe Doyle in just a moment. But first, a reminder, this episode of the Lockdown Maris podcast is brought to you by booking.com and eBay Motors. Passion, drive, and patience. What brings home the winning trophy is also what keeps your ride or die alive. eBay Motors has everything you need to maintain your vehicle and level it up to peak performance. from superchargers, roof racks, exhaust kits, LED headlights, and more. Whether you're into speed, power or style, eBay Motors has got you covered.

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Starting point is 00:11:20 we already talked about how going after Sloan, given Sloan $3 million impacted the rest of the class. And they had to, you know, sacrifice some potential talent over the course of the rest of the draft. And you already talked about how bad the draft is or the draft was in general just in terms of talent, especially in the later rounds.

Starting point is 00:11:39 But yeah, who are some of the guys that kind of stand out to you or at least intrigue you from this class? Yeah, so for me there's three guys that really stand out. I'm quite a bit more bullish on Brock Moore from Oregon than I think a lot of people are. It's 6-6, it's 235, 240 pounds. He's up to 101 miles an hour. He's got an 88-mile-an-hour slider.

Starting point is 00:12:02 He has thrown quite a few change-ups this season, and they really stretched him out at Oregon towards the end there. I think you've got to give him a chance to start. He throws enough strikes. I'm not saying that he's going to be special by any means. And of course, he's already 24 years old. So there's limitations into what he can become. But this is a, I mean, listen, six foot six and 100 miles an hour doesn't grow on trees, right? Like you can't just pick this guy up off the scrap heap.

Starting point is 00:12:29 I would be pretty bullish on what that can become. I think the one that nobody is really talking about enough is Will Riley. I found myself watching for better or for worse. I watched Will Riley like three or four times and full disclosure, it was always the beginning of the season. It was always a non-conference opponent. It was always against a team in the SEC. And he got rocked more often than not. But I have to preface that by saying, Will Riley always looked like a pro.

Starting point is 00:13:03 It's a very, very athletic delivery. It's a super fast arm. It's a really good breaking ball. Is it kind of a Logan Evans situation? I don't think so. He was someone that really struggled in college as well, but a year later, look where he is. Well, I think the thing with Evans is he just unlocked a new gear. You know, he just, he turned into something that he wasn't.

Starting point is 00:13:27 He started throwing more cutters. He started throwing more four seamers and the sinker, you know, jumped up to 94 to 96. Will Riley, I mean, I've seen him up to 97. I've seen him up. I think I saw him touch 98, at least on a television broadcast. And he can really spin the ball. He's another short righty, but anyways, I'm blabbering a little bit. I think he is the type of clay that the Mariners player development can sink their teeth into and get more value out of.

Starting point is 00:13:55 Yeah, he wasn't great in college, but I do think that he could be a better pro than he was a collegiate. And the last guy that I'll point out is Anthony Donofrio out of North Carolina. I don't know how this kid did not get drafted over the first, over the last two. years. I mean, another 24-year-old, but he's six-foot-three. He's 200 pounds. He runs like a deer. He's got above-average raw power that he's flashed in games. For my money, it's a plus throwing arm in the outfield. He can really go get it. Yeah, like, yeah, Anthony Donofrio might only be a below-average hitter. He might be a guy that hits 235. But I think there's a real case to be made that he turns into something like a Jake Fraley, and to get that in the 10th round is

Starting point is 00:14:42 is pretty exceptional. So I was really high on that guy this year. I'd tell you if it was 2022 when he was a 21 year old or a 22 year old, he's probably a fifth or a sixth round pick. So I'm pretty bullish on that one. Some of this is obviously just a byproduct of the top of the draft and how the top of the draft went for the Mariners. And again, you know, how they've had to sacrifice talent in other rounds. But, you know, last year, we saw them go. heavy on the pitching, you know, these reliever types, these mid-leverage reliever types, it seems. Do you think the Mariners kind of see that as like, this is, with our pitching development, this is our easiest path to getting like an actual major leaguer out of this pick. And that's why they

Starting point is 00:15:27 go so heavy on the pitching. I, you know, I think in general relief pitchers are a bit of a market in efficiency right now. I think there's a narrative, there's a misconception that they don't carry as much value as a starter, which, hey, listen, that's true. But a seventh inning reliever is more valuable than a starter that never gets there, right? He's more valuable than a starter that gets stuck in, in Arkansas. So I'd always be a fan of taking a Hunter Cranton over a kid in the fourth round who is 90 to 92 with a couple of fringe average secondary. So like I see the value in selecting starting pitching prospects if you have a plan to unlock more. But if you don't see a path toward them becoming a better version of themselves, just take the kid that's thrown 100 with a 65%

Starting point is 00:16:20 whiff rate on his fastball and, you know, throw him in the eighth inning in 2025. So I don't know if it's that they see that they see that they're pitching is just what they're what they're best at. I just think this draft kind of bored out that way. There wasn't a whole lot of position. There wasn't like, for an example, there wasn't a lot of Josh Hoods in this draft class that you could just take a shot on tools. Danofrio is kind of the exception. So Scott Hunter said, I think he said they have about 90% of this class already locked down in terms of getting them signed. Anyone that you know of that might be in danger of not signing from this class? I would take two shots. And I don't know this for sure. I haven't reached out. I would say Aiden Butler is probably a pretty safe bet to be one of those guys.

Starting point is 00:17:05 Listen, he's a ninth round pick. The slot value for that pick is about $190,000. He's six foot six. He throws 93. He's committed to Florida State. He's 20 years old. Everything I just said is leverage. I mean, that is leverage personified. So I think he is one that probably needs to get pushed across the finish line. The other one is probably Brian Walters. I think he was the 19th rounder out of Miami. It's really, really good stuff. He is already 22 years old, or if he's not 22, he's going to be 22 pretty soon. He barely pitched this year. I mean, there's a chance that he wants to just take a shot on himself,

Starting point is 00:17:42 maybe thinks he can start at Miami in 2025. So those would be my best guesses. And I sure hope they land Brian Walters because that's a really, really unique arm. My conversation with Joe Doyle continues in just a moment. But first a reminder, this episode of the Lockdown Marys podcast is brought to you by Tax Network, USA and Stitch Fix. Here on Locked-on, Mariters, we pride ourselves on getting you the latest news for your team, whether it's the off-season, the draft, spring training, or the playoffs.

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Starting point is 00:20:26 able to replenish more and more. Obviously, they just did that with the draft, you know, this past week. And they also have the international signing period coming up in January. So for those that don't know, who do they have coming up here in the international signing period? Oh, man. I've been checked out of that for a few months. I'm trying to remember your, oh, so they have yorger. I almost lost it there for a minute, man. The draft absolutely cooked me. Now, the big one, the big one is definitely Yor-Bautista. 6'1, 180. pounds left-handed it's enormous bat speed it's a really loud really noisy really weird uncharacteristic unconventional swing that might get exposed a little bit in pro ball but you got

Starting point is 00:21:08 time for him to figure that out it's tools he can run he can throw it's a massive throwing arm in right field or center field some scouts think he can play center field i mean he to me he doesn't look like a center fielder but well i mean we'll let time tell i've certainly been wrong with Julio before, so never discount it. That's the big one that I'm aware of. I could go back and look at my notes. I've got them all written down, but for now, that's going to be the guy that takes the cake. He's going to be the big dollar guy. I think he's a top 15 player in the international class, and by some accounts, he's a top 10. Trade deadline coming up, like I said, Mariners might be big game hunting here. We've heard a lot about Luis Robert. If they were to do

Starting point is 00:21:51 something like that or you know jazz chisholm or whoever pick a guy pick one of the the bigger names that's getting thrown around right now which prospect do you think is most likely to be traded from this farm system i have to think it's tie pete it's either tie pete or aiden smith and the reason i say both of those well tie pete is is left-handed athletic shortstop super young i mean it depends on the team, there are teams that don't want someone that is that far away. And I don't know if Tai Pete's ever going to be able to hit left-handed pitching. His swing is entirely different lefty-lefty. So that's something to consider. But you have Emerson, you have Celestine, you have Cole Young, you got Michael O'Royal. There's just a numbers game on the infield. So you got to think one of them

Starting point is 00:22:41 is going to move. And I guarantee you teams are going to be far more interested in Tai Pete than they are Michael O'Royal. The baseball card doesn't matter. Scouting screams Tai Pete. And the other one is probably Aidan Smith. He is right-handed. He is running a bit of a K-rate right now in Modesto, but there's a lot of tools there as well. He honestly reminds me quite a bit of what Mitch Hanigur looked like when he first arrived in 2016, 2017. So those two certainly stand out. That won't be enough for the team to land any sort of Titanic Hall. I mean, certainly not enough to get a Luis Robert. If I were to guess the premium guy that would be included in just about any premium package, it would have to be Harry Ford. It would have to be Harry Ford. How do you think this roster is actually going to

Starting point is 00:23:26 look 12 days from now when it's all sudden done? You know, sad as it is to say, I think if Mitch Hanigur is on the roster on August 1st, they probably didn't do enough. I mean, there are ways to keep him on the roster and it makes sense. You can upgrade. Do you think that's realistic that they would actually move on from him and eat that money? I think, Jerry and Justin would be happy to. I don't think they have any, I'm sure they have no qualms admitting this is not a value to the big league roster and he's actively hurting the team when he's on the, when he's on the lineup card.

Starting point is 00:24:10 Would ownership do it, especially for a guy like Mitch who has been revered and beloved, both by ownership and by fans? It's just been so incredibly rough this season watching him trying to perform. Do I think they would eat the money? I think the alternatives are DFAing players or sending down players that are much better players than Mitch Hanigar is. And the other part of this is I can't imagine another team would be in a hurry to take on that contract, even if Seattle paid 12 million of it. Who's going to buy Mitch Hanigur for $4.5 million in 2025?

Starting point is 00:24:45 I don't see an avenue toward him making sense for anybody. So as rough and brutal and brash as that sounds, he probably shouldn't be on the team on August 1st. So who are some other prospects outside of the big names that you think could be attractive to other teams at the deadline? Maybe on, you know, like a lower tier deal like for, you know, the Michael Confortoes of the world and guys like that. Well, I mean, Felny and Celestin is quite a bit down the road. But I think, you know, he's had a hard time staying on the field. I mean, we're talking wrist injuries. We're talking hamstring injuries. We're talking, you know, he's been beat up over the first calendar year that he's been a professional baseball player. So I am not as reluctant to move him as I think the fan base is. I think Felny and Celston, while you don't have a good idea what he is, I think Seattle might be willing to move him for the right deal. Guys that make sense elsewhere, I mean, Brody Hopkins is a guy that's going to garner a lot of attention, right? I mean, it's mid, it's, it's, it's, It's mid-90s heat.

Starting point is 00:25:52 It's a weird release. It's probably going to move pretty quick once they take the, once they take the training wheels off. I think he makes a lot of sense. Beyond that, you know, I'm not sure how many guys that you look at in this farm system and go, okay, there's quite a bit of ceiling there outside of the top, you know, 12 guys. There's not a lot of, you know, the Jeter Martinez types, the Ricardo Covas, the, you know, Carlos Jimenez, like those guys are so far away. a little bit tooled up, but they're so far away that while they're going to garner interest,

Starting point is 00:26:25 they're going to be the third piece to something. How aggressive do you want to see the front office get in terms of paying, you know, a dollar 25, a dollar 50 for a dollar essentially in these trade talks? That's a tough question. I mean, I think it depends on, I think it depends on the player. I think if the fit is right, like Nico Horner is such an enormous step up from Josh Rojas right now if you move the infield around a little bit. Rojas has been so, so rough since, you know, May that I think finding a suitable replacement to plug into the, plug into the offense for him would be really smart. I would pay a dollar 20, you know, on the, it's such a weird conversation to have. I'd pay a dollar 20 for Nico Horner right

Starting point is 00:27:15 now, but if you're asking me what I'm going to pay for Pete Alonzo, like I'm not paying a dollar 40 on the dollar for Pete Alonzo. I'm not paying for mostly for a rental. I'm not going to, I'm not going to blow up the farm system to improve this team. I do think there are going to be deals to be had for guys that are on the fringes, the Jake Fraley types that would make sense not to blow up something that is going to look pretty good in a few years. Thank you once again to Joe Doyle for joining the show. Be sure to check out the overslot podcast on Patreon and all of his draft thoughts on future starseries.com. That's going to do it for our show.

Starting point is 00:27:57 But before we get out of here, a reminder that Lockdown has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube. And now it's also available on Amazon Fire TV and the free Fire TV channels app. Lockdown Sports Today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of Locked On, plus our national shows covering every league. Find Lockdown Sports Today now available on the free Fire TV channels app.

Starting point is 00:28:20 Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown, I'm Marriars Podcast. I've been your host, Tiding Azzalus. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Tiding Azzalus and my co-coes Colby at C-Pan 11, that's C-PAT-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time. Peace.

Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - The Ryan Sloan Effect, Jurrangelo Cijntje's Outlook, and More Mariners Draft Thoughts w/ Joe Doyle

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