Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - These 5 Players Will Determine How the Mariners' 2025 Season Plays Out

Episode Date: March 11, 2025

Ty and Colby list the top-five players who will have the largest influence on how the Mariners' season plays out.Check out our Patreon!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolbySupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Wonderful PistachiosLooking for a snack that’s both delicious and nutritious? Get snackin’ and get crackin’ with the snack that packs a protein punch. Visit WonderfulPistachios.com to learn more.Supply HouseJoin the TradeMaster program today at SupplyHouse.com/TM and start ordering plumbing, HVAC, and electrical supplies with just a few clicks. Plus, use promo code S-H-5 for 5% off your first order. That’s SupplyHouse.com!Monarch MoneyTake control of your finances with MonarchMoney. Use code LOCKEDONMLB at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. FanDuelRight now, new customers can get TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in BONUS BETS when your first FIVE DOLLAR BET WINS! Download the app or head to FANDUEL.COM to get started. Bet with FanDuel—Official Partner of the NBA.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

These five players will have the biggest influence on the Marriss season this year. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors. It is Tuesday, March 11, 2025. This is Taddy Gonzalez and Colby Badnode for the Lockdown Marys podcast.

Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. As always, if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, you can check out our Patreon. All you have to do to check that out is click the link in the description of this episode. So today, Colby and I will be going over the top five swing players on the merits. These players will have the greatest influence over how this season plays out, whether it be positive or negative. They will swing the season in one direction or the other.

And we're looking at players, of course, who have the widest range of realistic outcomes. So, for example, like if Mitch Hancock, Ringer puts up a three-win season out of nowhere. Of course, that would have a massive, unexpected effect on the team. But if he's bad, well, you weren't expecting anything anyways. And on the flip side, Cal Raleigh falls off cliff. That too would have a massive unexpected effect. But if he's great, I mean, how much better is that really than what our reasonable expectations for him are?

And then there's middle ground players like Dillamore. How significantly worse? or how significantly greater could he realistically be than what his median ultimately is, right? Hopefully that makes sense. And that's why you're not going to see any of the pitchers on here and a couple of other notable position players. Now, one through four, it should be pretty obvious

why these guys are on this list. At number five, though, the first guy that we're going to talk about, Colby and I went back and forth on a lot. We wound up settling on Ryan Bliss. So Colby, why is Ryan Bliss on our list? We talked about a few guys. We talked about Dylan Moore, but we didn't pick him for the reasons that, you know, Ty just laid out.

We talked about Mitch Garber, but like kind of like with Mitch Hanigar, like if he's great, cool, that's really helpful. But if he's not, isn't that kind of what we expected anyways? And we weren't allowed to pick the bullpen, even though the bullpen probably has more sway over the success of this team, then probably three or four of the guys on this list, but we can't do a whole position group for some reason. So bliss is what we landed on. You know, this is your segment idea, by the way.

Excuse me for trying to get us to swing players. You know, excuse me for trying to get us to opening day. All right. I'm just saying that if you wanted a position group in here, you could have just done that. It's your idea. Now you're gaslighting me like you did with the prospect rings, not having. it. So anyways, Bliss is here because we're not really sure what he is. And, uh, you know, there, there's a wide range of possibilities for him because we kind of don't know what

bottom is with him. We're not really sure. So he played it. What? He was here for 60 days last year. I don't even know how many plate appearances that was. Uh, not a lot. And he was pretty good. Like he flashed certainly. He showed some good things that he can do with the plate. but and in the field and on the basis. So we certainly know, like, in small spurts, what he's capable of, but we don't know what he can do with sustained playing time. And so if he is bad, that's not the end of the world, but the upside, if he's good, is immense.

It's not just that the Mariners would have their first good second baseman since Robinson can know. So it's not just that. It's that Dylan Moore can now go back to the role that he's supposed to play, which is the utility role. He plays multiple spots. And he fills in a lot of the gaps that are left on this roster. You can do that with Dylan Moore instead of having to try and do it with like Luis Rivas,

or anything like that. It clears up a spot on your bench as a result, too. It also allows you to kind of be extra patient with Cole Young and just kind of see how this plays out. And if Young takes the job from somebody else, fine. You're fine with that. But if he doesn't, you don't have to push him. You don't have to rush him. And maybe just maybe you might actually consider trading him in July, a major league

ready middle infielder. It's going to have a lot of value to you. So Bliss, like, if he's good, if he's a three-win player and, you know, he's going to hit, I don't know, 12, 15 home runs and it looks like he's going to steal 30 bags and he's got really good range. So he's going to be a solid defender and all that stuff. If that happens, the Mariners are in, you know, the Mariners infield, which is a big question mark.

I mean, it's one less spot you have to worry about. Yeah. If you actually establish real production at second base, that's a huge swing and the positive for you, right? Right. That would do that would have such a large effect on just the rest of the roster. Like you laid out for what kind of roles it puts guys in and how much less of a burden it kind of puts on you to, you know, get something out of Cole Young eventually and all that stuff, right? it just has such a positive effect on just so many different things

so yeah to me it just kind of felt like whether it was Bliss or Cole Young felt like we had to put a second basement on here just relative to what the situation is at that position right again if you get just like he doesn't even have to be a three win player in order for it to be a positive swing in my mind a significant positive swing if you can just get league average production both defensively and offensively and that probably is more like a two-win player that's a massive difference than what you've gotten out of that position over the last half decade yeah by the way if you think this spot should be cole young basically everything we just said about ryan bliss also applies to cole young so in a way it's really second baseman not named dylan more but we had to pick somebody because no position groups so

we picked Ryan Bliss just because he'd actually, you know, debuted in the big leagues. Again, you're a segment. If you are not gas-liding me. You are not gas-liding me. I will not let you John Schneider me. Okay. Move along.

Number four on our list, Corey Polanco. I think this should be obvious, but do you want to dive a little bit into why he's on here? Polanco, really bad last year. And obviously, unlike second base, there's not a lot of fallback options at third base. unless you really believe Ben Williamson is like a dude.

Yeah, there really isn't a Ryan Bliss or Koyant at third base right now. No. So Polanco, if he's bad, you are putting a lot of pressure on probably Ben Williamson, who hits for no power, has a very flat swing.

There's just, it's a lot of risk to trust. The reason, just to be clear, real quick, because I know you guys are typing away about Ben Williamson and what I just said. The reason that I don't,

view him in the same light as Ryan Bliss and Cole Young is strictly because of the power. He just right now, unless he starts hitting for more power, he doesn't profile as an everyday option at third base, at least a legitimate one. Right. I mean, like you can get away with it for a little bit of time like Josh Rojas last year because the defense should be so good. Sure. But yeah, there's just not a lot of fallback options.

And, you know, Williamson just doesn't have the prospect pedigree. And he was not amazing in AA last year. was fine. He was good, but the power is legitimate. And at third base, you kind of need a little bit of power. So if Polanco's not good and he just can't play, then yeah, you have more questions about who can take over for Polanco than you do at second base. If he is good, like if you get 2021 Polanco, 2022 Polanco, 2023 Palanco for more than half a season, then it's massive because that guy, that Jorge Polanco is, I mean, I don't think he's quite a middle of the order bat, but like, if you're hitting, if you get that Horri Polanco, he's hitting second, third, fourth, fifth, and he's probably a borderline all-star.

Like, Jorge Polanco prior to last year was one of the most underrated hitters in all of baseball. He was very, very good. Now, the big key here is defense. We don't know what that's going to be. But if he's even average defensively, that is significantly higher than what our expectations are. So if you get an average Polanco offensively what he's done for most of his career and you get, you know, pretty good like just even like fringe average defense at third base.

That is probably a three and a half one player, which is a significant bump over what you had last year with Josh Rojas. It'll look different, but, you know, that that's fine. So Polanco, if he's really good, he's a borderline all-star hitter. And if he's really bad, I don't know how you recover from that because either you're moving down. Dylan Moore around and now you have to trust Ryan Bliss or you have to hope Ben Williamson is able to hit Major League pitching, which is far off of Toulano is basically the everyday guy there. And then you kind of lose your platoon with Rayleigh. So there's a lot of different things that happen if Polanco is bad or if he gets hurt, but if he's good, if you get good Horace

Polanco and everything else just stays like it was last year, you make the playoffs. You probably win the division. Like that's a pretty big swing there. If they're wrong about Palanco, though, but they're still able to be competitive in spite of that heading into the deadline, then we're having the same exact conversation that we just had this offseason, where we're talking about how limited the options are at third base. Probably the biggest thing we would be talking about is Nolan Aronado again, unless he gets dealt here out of nowhere over the next couple of months. And that conversation is still the same as it was this off season,

where we're having to talk about the money and all that stuff and how complicated that is. But the path to getting better at third base, if this isn't it for a Polanco or anyone else on your roster or in your organization right now is not it. It is so incredibly narrow. So whether it's Polanco or Williamson or someone, someone has to step up within the organization at third base. And if not, odds are you're probably doomed. Yeah, you're probably doomed at that spot this year. Yeah. So, yeah, we'll see how that turns out, but we're going to get into the top three of our swing players in just a moment.

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And start ordering plumbing, HVAC, and electrical supplies with just a few clicks. Plus, use promo code SH5 for 5% off your first order. That's supplyhouse.com. You're listening to the Lockdowner's podcast. we are going over our top five swing players on the 2025 Mariners. Coming in at number three is Victor Robles, who just like Corey Polanco should be pretty obvious why he's on this list. We've talked a lot about the regression that is likely going to happen.

We talked about this quite a bit when we did our outfield preview what last week or the week beforehand. It's just a matter of how significant is the regression going to be. And that's exactly what. why he's he's a swing player right because there are he might have the widest range of possibilities of anyone that we're talking about today i mean last year he was literally d f aed by the team that you know signed him developed him won a world series with him not just d fade outright released yeah he was a free agent right and then after he came to seattle he was playing roughly MVP level baseball for a couple months.

So the range doesn't get any wider than that. So it's one of those things where it's like, look, if Robles repeats what he did last year over the course of 162 games, he won't. But if he does, then you have probably three MVP candidates in your lineup. Like, yeah, I don't want to tell you how that changes that he's going to cause havoc on the basis. He's going to be a plus defender in the outfield.

He's obviously brought the energy and all that stuff. And it's one of the best deals that Jerry ever made. Right. He could also just end up being DFA'd. Like that that's on the table. I'm not saying it's likely because he has a two-year contract. But like, it's not a lot of money. I mean, well, remind yourself real quickly,

which organization you're talking about. It shouldn't be. a lot of money. So, I mean, in theory, they could defam or they could bench him, right? And then you just kind of have this defense only fourth outfielder. So that's what we're talking about. The range is like All Star, you 26 men on the roster who's literally just there to run and play some defense at the end of the game. Yeah. And if he's not that, if he is on the bench, if he does become a bench guy, your outfield depth isn't great, especially if you're committed to Luke Rayley playing first base as much as he's going to. to so yeah they they did nothing to protect themselves we talked all we wanted robles insurance we talked about it all winter they didn't do it they didn't right now again they would probably

just move raley out to to right field but hypothetically let's say they needed ready to play first base if robles wasn't good who would be they put in the outfield right now dillan moors slated to be the second baseman he's not never it would it would be Mitch hanniger or dom can zone Adomacan's own, maybe Samad Taylor. Like, that's what we're talking about here. Like, the gap is massive. And obviously, if he's very good, if he does what he did last year over the course of 162 games,

you're probably the favorite in the American League. Well, and it's not like Johnny Farmello's walking through that door anytime soon. No. Right. No. So, yeah, the mayors have a bit of a gap in their outfield, you know, in terms of the position players. Most of their high-profile position players who are even close to Major League

ready. infielders. Yeah. So if Robles is so bad that the Mariners can't put him in the lineup every day, they're in trouble. Now, obviously you get to July, one of the things that is usually readily available at the deadline are corner outfielders. So yeah. And that's probably why he's not number two because he does play a somewhat more replaceable position. But the Mariners in the short term, they do not have an answer if Robles is bad.

if Robles is great, that's amazing. If he's bad, you're in a little bit of trouble. He's probably going to land somewhere in the middle. Yeah. The reason why he's higher than Polanco, despite there being an easier path to replacing him, is because of just how wide the range of possibilities are. Polanco's got more of a track record, so it's easier to make on.

He is the swing player, basically. Honestly, I think you could even make an argument that he could be higher on this list, but you'll see why he isn't. once we, you know, get further into the list, right? So, yeah, it's going to be a fascinating season to play out with Victor Robles. So hopefully there's just some middle ground that he finds, right? Yeah. And if you're a big spring trainee does matter type of guy,

should be a little bit concerned about Victor right now. He is not looked great. So we'll see, you know, really we can't make a call. about whether or not Robles is having a, you know, could be trending towards just being on the bench again until at least what, May 15, like middle of May. You got to give them six weeks or so. But yeah, we'll see. But yeah, obviously, I mean, it's ridiculous. I like he's either an everyday player or he is off the team. Like those are, I mean, the absolute ceiling is literally all-star MVP level. We saw it last year. Yeah. The floor is. We saw that last year too. Yeah, it could get ugly. We didn't see that in Seattle, but we saw it in the year of 2024 for Victor Rebel.

So we'll see. But yeah. Yeah. All right. We will get into our final two players in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the lockdown marriage podcast is brought to you by Fandul. All right,

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No waiting around. So visit Fanduel.com and get in on the college hoops action all tournament long. That's Vanduel.com And you're listening to the Locked-Oamaraners podcast. So let's wrap up our top five swing players. To recap, Ryan Bliss came in at number five. Corey Polanco at number four, Victor Robles at number three.

Now let's get into number two, J.P. Crawford. mentioned earlier when we're talking about Victor Robles. Can Robles, you know, just find some middle ground, right? J.P. Crawford is a guy that needs to find some middle ground. 136 WRC plus I believe it was in 23, 89 WRC plus in 2024. Can you just find somewhere in the middle of that? Which is where he sat for pretty much the entire career.

It's square in the middle of that. But yeah, I mean, that that's what right, like with all these players, if they just kind of meet expert, like if they just kind of meet in the middle of ceiling and floor, you're probably going to be fine. You're probably going to have a shot to win, right? And what makes them a swing player is if they reach the ceiling or they hit the floor, then your odds or your ceiling yourself or floor as a team crashes or shoots through the roof. So if J.P. Crawford is what he was in 2023.

This team is the favorite in the American League West and maybe perhaps the favorite in the American League. Like he was that good in 2023. last year he was really bad. He was bad, objectively bad. The one thing that helped him a lot last year, defense is still there. And actually it improved last year over where it was in 2023. There's a non-zero chance,

although pretty close to zero, that if you take, if you get 2023 J.P. Crawford offense and 2024 J.P. Crawford defense, we're talking about a 6-1 player. And last year, I believe he was a 2-1 player, a little bit less than that.

And that was mostly based on defense and walks. So, you know, it's interesting we're having this conversation. JP hit a monster home run the other day. And he said, you know, he did something in the cage and it felt like it did back in 2023. So you hope that carries forward. We'll have to see. Obviously, one spring training home run doesn't really mean anything.

But yeah, JP Crawford has a pretty wide range of outcomes. And like it is with Polanco, you kind of don't have the guy, right, to replace JP. I mean, Cole Young. Maybe. Unless you need Cole Young to handle second because Ryan Bliss can't do it. And we saw what this team looked like with Dylan Moore playing shortstop every day last year for about a month. Yeah. And like Polanco and like Bliss, but unlike Robles, if he can't do it and you don't have that replacement in house, good luck finding one at the deadline.

And short stops are hard to find. So it's one of those things where it's like JP's not that easily replaceable. and he does have a wide range of outcomes, which is why he's going to rank so high on this list. You hope that he finds the middle ground, just like Robles, and if both of those guys do that, you have a shot.

You have a shot to win the division. You have a shot to go to the playoffs and all that stuff. If JP swings, you know, towards 2023, you might be the favorite in the division. If he repeats 2025, you're probably, and this is if nothing else goes seriously wrong, you're probably battling for the last while,

card spot again and we'll see if you make it this time by a game or two instead of missing it by a game or two. But yeah, J.P. Crawford is, I mean, it's the definition of a swing player this year. There's just a little more track record with specifically with the Mariners and Victor Robles. And his position is a little bit harder to recover from if he's not good than Robles' would be at least in the, you know, in trade season in July. And so I think that's why it should be number two. What makes J.P. so unique on this list is that his success or lack their of this year, not only has an obvious large impact on 2025, also has a massive impact on his future, specifically in Seattle and on the Mariners future at shortstop.

We're going to learn a lot over the next few months about where things are ultimately heading, not just for this year, but beyond this year as it pertains to JP in that position in general. So coming in at number one, Julio, obviously. I think we saw Julio's floor last year, which is for a couple of months, he's going to be objectively bad. And somewhere along the way, he's going to balance out and be about a, you know, three and a half, four one player. Right. The ceiling, in my mind still is he can win an MVP. Yep.

So that's a very wide range of possibilities as well. It is. And so while Julio easily has the highest floor. of anybody on this team. Like you're not worried about Julio being a bad player. So it might not seem like he's that big of a swing player because you can bank on, you know,

really good everyday player type of production or value at least. The ceiling, which we haven't seen yet. I mean, I don't think it's really possible to know the ceiling of a 24-year-old. But we haven't seen it yet for six months. But the ceiling is 10-1 player. Like, I'm not saying,

that's likely ever going to happen, but he can do it because while Judge does it with home runs and offensive prowess, Julio probably not going to hit 60 home runs, but Julio can steal 40 bags, and he can play gold glove defense in center field. And he can hit bombs. And he get 30 home runs. And so, yeah, Julio could be a 10-win player. That is the upside here. And as we've talked about in the past, when Julio Rodriguez is swinging the bat well,

the entire offense is good. Like, it's one of those, his bat is. so impactful that when he's swinging it, you only need one or two other guys in the lineup to swing it to, and you can consistently score runs, which we know has been a problem for the Mariners. So, you know, it's really crazy that,

you know, Julio is so talented and his upside is so immense that just him being good at the plate alone is enough to take you from a bad offense to at least an average one, at least a decent one, because he does so much for you in terms of scoring runs. And so that is something that has to be, you know, accounted for.

And that is something that we have to factor in when we're trying to think of swing players. Like, yeah, just because Julio is probably no worse than a four-win player, three and a half four-win player, doesn't mean that the upside is not that he could be the best player in the league. And therefore, he has the widest range of outcomes. Right. So it really is something when Julio's going. If Julio does reach that peak or at least close to that,

that just has such a major trickle-down effect on the rest of the roster. That means at that point, like, third base could be a disaster and you're still fine. Because Julio is making up for that by being an MVP caliber player. Right. That means that second base could be a disaster instead, right? So on and so forth. It makes the blemishes or just the holes on your roster much less apparent if Julio is being that dude, right?

Yep. But if he's a three and a half four-word. player, then you need those other pieces to play up. Right. And that's what makes him so crucial. And that's what makes him so very obviously the number one on this list. He's the rising tide that lists all the other ships. Like that's who he is.

And Julio understands that. He's talked about that this spring about how important it is for him to produce and produce right away. We hear it all the time. The mares will go as far as Julio will take them. And if Julio is an. MVP candidate or if he wins the MVP this year, the Mariners are probably American League favorites. Like forget the West, forget they're probably winning the American League if Julio's a 10-win player.

If Julio is an eight-win player, they probably are going to be the favorite in the American League. Like that is what we're talking about here. And again, we've seen Julio do it for a couple weeks at a time where he is that dude. And, you know, he literally brings the Mariners back almost single-hunt. You remember 20, 23, August? The Mariners were once 10 games back, and they came back, and they were leading the division by the end of August because Julio literally dragged them, you know, to that point. And then he stumbled in September and what happened to the rest of the offense?

So Julio is that important. He is that impactful of a player. And he is, without a doubt, the most important player to the Mariners. He hasn't found enough consistency yet to be kind of be left off of this list. hopefully that starts to come this year and we can just start banking on you know 6-7 win Julio Rodriguez for the next half decade

but we're not there yet we're not there yet so hopefully this year is the year and if it is again then you just you've just expanded your margin of error substantially so just because the floor

isn't nearly as low as Robles or JP or Polanco or any of those other guys doesn't mean that his you know, his impact can't be felt more than any of those guys if he's just okay, Julio. Yeah. So probably a glaring omission for some is Randy or Rosarena. Just wanted to quickly talk about him.

To me, he's another one of those middle ground guys where like, I don't think that he's going to be a disaster. And I don't think that he's going to be so exceptional beyond our expectations that it would have a massive swing in one way or the other. Yeah. I don't think Randy just, I don't think anybody. out there is thinking Randy Rosanerana could be a 6-7 win player. You know, I think we're all pretty comfortable with who Randy is at this stage of his career. And I think we're pretty comfortable that he's going to produce roughly at that level,

you know, plus or minus in either direction. There's always variance in a player's performance. But, yeah, Randy to me, is just stable enough, I guess, without the ceiling. You know, it's weird when you say a player doesn't have a high ceiling. it makes it sound like you're saying they're a bad player. Obviously, Randy Rosarin is a very good player, but he's been like a 125 WRC plus guy for pretty much his entire career.

And I think you should probably bank on that or expect to be roughly that for 2025. You know, I don't think you're ever going to see playoff Randy for an entire season. But if that happens, then yeah, again, like Julio, you're probably an MVP candidate.

So, yeah, uh, yeah, Randy is, is another guy who, it doesn't really fit he's he's yeah

kind of kind of Cal Raleighish where it's just like yeah I view him Cal and all the starting pitchers pretty much in the same bucket like maybe Brian Woo that was another guy that we talked about potentially for for number five like if he throws more innings what could that do but yeah I just I kind of viewed

all those guys kind of in the same grouping you think we're wrong on that you guys guys love to let us know when wrong. So let us know down on the comments below. Let us know who your top five swing players would be on this club. Sure. And I just like to reiterate the bullpen as a whole would be on this list. But how do you differentiate between Santos and Spire? Like if Santos is really good, but Spire just isn't like, you know what I mean? Like it's just one of those things. Brash, if Brash gets back and he's healthy and that's great, great. If he's not, okay. that doesn't mean that like Colin Snyder can't pick up his slack.

So it's just one of those things where it's tough to differentiate. It's really tough to be like, oh, you know, Colin Snyder's a swing player. And then everybody's like, well, why is Colin Snyder a swing player, but not Gregory Santos? You know what I mean? Right. That's why. But the bullpen is hugely important to the Mariners success in 2025. And there's unfortunately more variance there than I'm comfortable with.

Yeah. Even more so than just, you know, average year to year variance with the bullpen. There's a lot of question marks out there. All right, that's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marrars podcast for Colby Patnaud. I'm Tading Azales. Be sure, give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Marrars. You can follow me at Tadine Gzalus and Colby at C-Pat 11.

That's CPAT-1. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB, Colby, and the show at Locked on Marrars. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time. Peace.