Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Things Are Happening, Folks!

Episode Date: November 30, 2021

On this week's Locked On Mariners, hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode break down what the M's are getting in newly-acquired 2B/OF Adam Frazier and what they gave up to the Padres. Then the duo react to the news of Seattle signing LHP Robbie Ray live as it breaks!Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome to Locked-on Mariners, your home for Daily Seattle Mariner's News and Analysis. Thank you so much for making us your first listen of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. And today is Monday, November 29th, 2021. I am your host, Taday Gonzalez, joined as always by my co-host, Colby Patnode. Follow us on Twitter at L.O. underscore Mariners.

you can follow me at Dane Gonzalez's D-A-N-E, G-N-Z-L-Z-Z and Colby at C-P-A-L-E. That's C-P-A-T-1-1. Be sure to also check out our Patreon where we talk about the Mariners even more and also get into some non-baseball talk twice a week. New episode dropping for our tier twos and three. So if you want to hear more free agency talk, visit patreon.com forward slash control the zone for more information. Usually on Mondays, we'll do our weekly mailbag here on Lockdown Mariners,

but since a lot has gone down since the last time we talked. talked. We're going to spend this episode breaking down what the Mariners got in new second basement slash outfielder Adam Frazier, what they gave up in the trade with the San Diego Padres and recap the wild weekend league wide and how it impacts the Mariners going forward. If you like what you hear, give the show a follow or subscribe wherever you listen to this. We greatly appreciate it. So Colby, we actually have something to talk about it. Jerry Depoto made a move.

Are you excited? Are you pumped to actually be able to talk about something real here this off season? Yeah, I am. And it was kind of a perfect depoto move because it was a name that, you know, you and I had discussed a little bit. But it certainly wasn't a mainstream name that was out there and everybody was talking about the obvious fit. And it just kind of came out of nowhere. We did get a little bit of a heads up with this deal. It didn't officially get, you know, broke by the Mariners themselves.

But still, I mean, it pretty much, we haven't even heard Adam Fraser was available. and there were reports that the Mariners had acquired him. So obviously that came from the Padres, but yeah, it's a pretty standard depoto move. It's, you know, a name that we hadn't really

or we as a collective community hadn't given serious consideration to and it kind of just popped out of nowhere on Saturday morning. So, yeah, it was, kind of checks all the boxes of a Jerry depoto trade. So Frazier last year hit 305 with a 368 on

base percentage for 11 slugging percentage he was worth three and a half wins by fan graph standards obviously acquired by the podres near the trade deadline from the pittsburgh pirates the mariners were also involved in that market they felt like they were pretty close to acquiring him but the padres ended up swooping in the mariners pivoted to abraham toro etc we know how that all went down fraser last year an all-star selection was a finalist in the gold glove race at second base on the National League. He is a gold glove caliber player at second base can also play pretty well in the outfield, particularly at left field. You can also play a little bit of shortstop, some third base. Jerry DePoto talked about the versatility and how it lengthens their lineup and kind of, you know,

keeps them in the running for everything else that they want to do positionally. So Trevor Story, Chris Bryan, all those names are still on the board here. At the time that they made this trade, Mark Simeon was also on the board. We'll talk about that later. but Colby, just talk about the fit here with Frazier for the Mariners in terms of, you know, how he fits positionally and where he might wind up in the lineup. Yeah, I think he's a great fit. You know, like you mentioned, he is a plus defender at second base, which, you know, Dylan Moore was pretty good over there himself, but when you put Toro over there,

you definitely took a step back, but you had to because the offense was significantly better. Well, Frazier is kind of the best of both worlds. He's a significantly better hitter than Dylan Moore, a better defender than him as well. And he's at right now, you have to say he's a better hitter than Abraham Toro. Will that be the case a year from now? Maybe not, but right now he certainly is. And, you know, we talk about the need to get better up the middle.

It makes guys, it opens up options, guys like Marcus Stroman, all of a sudden make a little bit more sense because you have this great double play combo up the middle. but you look at what he does at the plate this is a guy who doesn't swing and miss his in zone contact rate is like 92% that's elite when he swings at a pitch he's going to hit it

he doesn't chase all that often you know average to above average speed again doesn't strike out puts the ball in play this is a guy who kind of just raises the floor of your offseason and even if he is is just what he was or what he has been throughout his career, which is about a 100 WRC plus guy.

I think he's at 103 in his career. If that's all he is, he still represents about a 25% increase offensively to what the Mariners got out of the second base position last year. So it's a sizable upgrade. He has a four-win season under his belt. He's probably more of a two-and-a-half-win player, maybe a three, but we'll see what happens with all that.

I think he's a great fit. And obviously the versatility is something that, the Mariners are heavily, you know, investing in and having a guy who's a plus second basement, plus plus second baseman can handle shortstop and is pretty good in left field too. It makes it easy so that if, you know, Trevor's story is, you know, signed to be the second basement, well, that's okay. We can, we can still use Frazier. So I think it's a great bit. So real quick here, before we hop over, you know, let me just ask you this now. you look at the rest of the market and how it's kind of fallen towards the Mariners now,

you know, does the addition of Frazier and the loss of Simeon make Chris Bryant the most obvious fit of the top guys on the market instead of Trevor Story or whoever? Yeah, I think it feels that way. You know, we had the report yesterday from Robert Murray, a fan cited, that said that, you know, the Mariners are now very interesting. in Chris Bryant and it doesn't sound like he's going to get anything done before the shutdown, which obviously is only going to add to Mariner fans' angst. But yeah,

just reading between the lines here with no inside information, it feels like the shift has happened that, like they like Trevor's story, but they probably prefer Chris Bryant. I think he's just a better fit overall than story is right now. So we'll see. So yeah, I would say Brian is probably the, probably the top target

free agent wise right now but again unfortunately it doesn't sound like we're going to get a resolution on that end until probably sometime in February or March could also be a negotiation tactic on his part to leak that that he's not going to sign until after because it seems like a lot of teams right now

are pretty desperate to get things done and players for that matter yeah and we're expected to see here you know, pretty much by the time now that we're recording a free agent frenzy that's a bit similar to a trade deadline just in terms of volume of moves. So really interested to see how that goes and to see if the Mariners are going to be involved. We're going to talk more about free agency and trades and all that stuff in a moment. But we're actually going to talk about

the return that the Mariners gave up in the Fraser deal first. But real quick, I want to remind you this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by DirecTV. Does this sound familiar? You've got one device that lets you catch the game live, another that lets you stream your favorite shows, you're watching sports highlights on your phone, and you've got your neighbor's best friends logging for the good stuff. Well, I want to tell you about a simple way to get all that entertainment you love without the hassle and a great way to finally get your TV together.

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Content varies by package. You're listening to Locked-on Mariners. Thank you again for making us your first listen of the day. Just like you do here every day. We greatly appreciate the support. The offseason has pretty much kicked into full. full swing, even though we're probably going to come to an abrupt halt here with the lockout coming up. But real quick, we're going to talk about the return that the Mariners gave up in the

Adam Fraser deal, sending outfield prospect, Corey Rozier and 27-year-old left-hand of reliever Ray Kerr to the Padres in this deal. Rozier, the 12th round pick, this past draft, who surprisingly signed with the team. It initially wasn't expected that he was going to sign, but He came over and hit really well at low A. And a lot of folks have been really excited about Rozier. Kerr was just recently added to the 40-man roster to protect him from Rule 5 eligibility, high strikeout guy who can pump out that velocity from the left side. It doesn't really have a second or third pitch, really,

which has pretty much been the reason that he's been kept down in the miners for a while now. So Colby, you know, you look at this return. the big price is Rozier but how do you feel about the deal overall for the Mariners and giving up this package for one year of Adam Frazier?

Yeah, it's a steel and that doesn't mean that, you know, Rozier and and sorry, now I'm blanking on the name, Ray Kerr, it's not like they're going to be bad players, right? Or it's not like the Padres

aren't going to ultimately win this trade if you just look at a war perspective because of Kerr and Rozier both playing the big leagues for I don't know a couple of years each they're probably going to accumulate a little bit more war than Frazier will give you in a year

but that's not really what it's about you know we talked about this a little bit when the Astros traded for Kendall Graveman right they give up Toro and of course the Mariners are going to win that deal by war because they were only getting two months of Gravement but that's not how it works when you're a team that fancy

yourself a competitor, you're going to lose trades in the long run. You're focused on the short term. And there's no guarantee that Rozier or Kerr or even get to the big league, well, Kerr's probably going to get to the big leagues, but there's no guarantee he stays. Like you mentioned, he throws hard. But the slider, when it's on, it's a very good pitch, but it's very hit or miss. And he's probably got like 35 grade command. Like, there's a lot of left to be desired with Kerr. And he's 27. You look at Rozier. He's 20. And he hasn't played at high A yet. I mean, he crushed at low A, but again, he's 23.

So it's not like he's, you know, some 18-year-old with all these tools. He's 23-year-old who's played A-ball. So no guarantee that he's going to ever make it to the big leagues. But I do like both of these guys. I think they're nice prospects. I think they're decent prospects. Rozier is surprised to me. It was kind of funny to see Pipeline be like, oh, well, Ray Kerr is the 20th-ranked prospect

in the Mariner system or whatever. whatever, and it's like, he shouldn't be. So it was kind of funny to see them talk about occur or the way they should be talking about Rosier. But it's a steal. It's a great deal for Seattle. It makes some sense for San Diego because they're trying to clear a little bit of money.

We know they're shopping Eric Hosmer right now. Good luck. So, yeah, it's a bargain for Seattle. It really helps them. and the Padres get a couple of interesting lottery tickets, but it's just that. And with the depth that Seattle has both in their bullpen and in the outfield in the minor league levels,

it was a no-brainer for Jerry Capoto, had to do it. Yeah, no, it's a great deal for the Mariners. And honestly, like, even with the Padres looking to clear some money, I don't really get it. I think this is kind of a bit of an L for AJ Preller, which is becoming pretty common. common theme here. Yeah, to, you know, to give up to Capita Marcano and Jack Swinsky and Michelle Miliano for him just a couple months ago and then to trade him for for this package,

I'd be pretty disappointed as a San Diego fan, honestly. Yeah, it saves them $7.5 million, but is that $7.5 million going to really help them get something that helps them more than Adam Fraser in 2020 in 2020 in 2022 I don't know and the Padres are a team that that is severely underachieving you know right now and and needs to be pretty much like where it is right now it needs to be competing for pennants and it's just they're nowhere close and so I get wanting to try to rearrange things here but I don't know if Frazier is necessarily the guy that needed to get that axe, even though he wasn't fantastic when he came over from Pittsburgh. He, I believe he's slashed 267, 3, 27, 335 with the Padres.

And he was pretty bad against left-handed pitching. I think he only had 64 WRC plus during that time as a left-hander going up against lefty pitching. But still, I just, I don't know if that's necessarily the move or the message you want to send to your fan base if you're AJ Preller. that's just kind of a weird move for me to wrap my head around with the with the Padres but hey the Mariners take advantage of that and that's fantastic and Jerry Depoto once again absolutely handling Preller and the the Padres. Yeah it's kind of becoming an annual annual tradition where the Mariners just kick the Padres butt in a trade and yet somehow you know Preller gets all the praise and Jerry to Potto gets a lot of the a lot of the scorn for Mariner fans, particularly in the last 24 hours or so,

but I think things might be turning around on that front. And that is what we call a tease, people. Yeah, so we're going to have to call an audible on the show. We were going to focus on the onslaught of bad news, we'll call it for the Mariners on Sunday. And instead, we're going to talk about some great news for the Mariners that just broke in just a moment. But real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown,

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the news has come down. Jeff Passon of ESPN confirms the Seattle Mariners have signed Defending A.L. young winner, Robbie Ray, left-handed pitcher, who just pitched for the Toronto Blue Jays, to a five-year, $15 million contract with an option after the third season. It's almost like you should wait until you see how the off-season plays out before you start calling your GM names. I mean, I just imagine that idea, but holy cow, dude, like, not only did the Mariners get Robbie Ray. they did not have to overpay him by a cent.

Not one penny. They gave him roughly what Kevin Gossman got last night. Five years, $115 million. There is a player opt out after three. And by the way, you want Robbie Ray to take that opt out because that means he's pitched so well over the last three years that he thinks he can get more than $23 million a year over the next two years. So don't worry about the opt out at all.

It actually helps Seattle. This is a home run of a deal. And Robbie Ray doesn't even have to be as good as he was last year. If Robbie Ray is 80% of what he was last year, it's a home run of a deal. I mean, you cannot complain about this contract. You can't do it. I will not allow anybody to complain about this contract.

You're getting blocked on any social. This is a home run of a deal for the Seattle Mariners. It is fantastic. He's not an age. right unless he does what he did last year again which hush hush I'm just saying you're not talking about that yet we're not talking about that no no no let me finish let me finish but what you have in Robbie ray now is you have a guy who you know is starting that wild card game for you you have a guy who can go toe to toe with Beaver he can go to toe to toe with Cole who can go toe to toe with furlander on his best day he can go toe to toe with any of those guys and that's something the Mariners did not have before by the the way, they also had a guy who misses a tremendous amount of bats, which is something we have talked about all winter as being, you know, something that would be nice. It would be cool if they could get somebody who misses bats. Robbie Ray is amongst the best in the American League at doing that.

There is zero downside to this move. Zero downside to signing Robbie Ray. This is, again, all free agent contracts are risk to some degree. They're wagers. But if Robbie Ray is even just a league average starter, he's going to be worth $15 million a year. So you just need him to be a little bit better. You just need him to be a number three. If he's a number three for the length of this contract, you're getting your money back. And based on what we just saw in pretty much the entirety of 2021,

you're getting a little bit better than that. So I mean, this is a great day. I mean, you know, all hail Jerry to Poto. you can send your apologies. We'll put the mailing address to Safeco Field in the description. You can send your apologies there. Because, I mean, you talk about, there's a phrase I want to use that we'll probably have to say for CTZ. But you talk about like a move that puts other teams on notice.

This is that move. And I mean, what's fun about this is that he's not done. He's not done. Jerry DePoto is apparently also looking at Javi Bias right now, Chris Bryant according to John Hammond, which take that with a great assault folks, it's John Hammond, of course. But Chris Bryant, Hobby Baez, and others reportedly on the Mariners

radar right now. So things might be far from done here over the next 24 hours or so. So the Mariners really involved here now in the free agent frenzy making the probably the second biggest deal of the day. I would say the number one goes to Scherzer and the bets. But wow, what a statement from the Mariners. And on his way to winning the Sigh Young this year, Ray pitched 193 in a third innings over 32 starts,

11, 54K per nine and got his walks under control. That was really a big problem for him over the course of his career. Got those under the control. 242 walks per nine last year. He had a 284 E.R. 369 5th. He was worth 3.9 F4 by Fangraph standard.

So, wow, what a move. I mean, this is just, this is incredible. An incredible response to losing out on Gossmann last night. Incredible response to losing out on Simeon last night. It was getting very doom and gloom on Mariners' Twitter. And you guys owe Jerry DePoto an apology because, wow.

You know, we had, Colby, you and I had talked about a lot of guys. the soft season. We talked about a lot of the pitchers, the free agent pitchers. We talked about Gosman. We talked about Eduardo Rodriguez. We talked about John Gray. We talked about Stephen Mats.

A lot of these guys that have now signed. We didn't really talk about Robbie Ray because it just didn't feel all too realistic, especially with the year that he was coming off of and winning the Cy Young. Kind of seemed like he was sticking him in Toronto. And even after they signed Gosman, it kind of felt like maybe there was still a chance that he would stick in Toronto. But, I mean, this is your number one. like you said, he's, he's not an ace, but this is certainly a move that, you know, we talked about

where you needed someone better than Marco Gonzalez. Jerry Depoto got that guy today. He did. You know, this is just great because I've been a Robbie Ray fan for a while now. Back when he was in Arizona, I really wanted the Mariners to trade for him. You know, as a fantasy baseball nerd, he was on my team every year until this one, where I finally was like, I can't do it anymore with Robbie Ray. I just, I can't wait for the breakout and it happened.

So, you know, personally, I'm getting a player that I've liked for a long time. Obviously not as good as the version of the Mariners are getting, but I've still liked this guy for a long time. And now he's going to be wearing a Mariners uniform as the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner. It's, it's a great, it's a great day. and you know to quote to quote Kevin from the office it's nice to win one and the Mariners certainly have won the day

all I have to say is chills let's go well on that note I think we're going to sign off here we're going to hop on the mics and record control the zone so if you want to hear more of us talking about Frazier, but talking about Ray, of us talking about some of the other guys they might be targeting

right now, whether that's Bias, whether that's Bryant, go to patreon.com forward slash control zone and be sure to subscribe. It's only $3 a month to get you access to all of our, or to our Wednesday shows, $5 a month and $10 a month to get access to our

Monday shows like today's show. But it's going to be a lot of fun. We're going to have a lot of fun with that show and I hope you had a lot of fun listening to us react to the radio on this show as well. We're going to be back tomorrow and talk all about this, talk about Frazier, talk about whatever the hell else might happen over the next 24 hours or so. It's going to be pretty wild, it seems, and that's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on Lockdown Mariners.

For Colby Patnode, I'm Taday Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez. that's D-A-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-P-E-P-E-N-E-L-E. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. And thank you again for making us your first listen of the day, just like you do every day. We really, really, really appreciate the support,

and we are super, super stoked to have some stuff to talk about, a lot of fun stuff to talk about over the next few days. It's going to be a lot of fun here on Lockdown Mariners. In the meantime, before we talk to you again tomorrow on Tuesday, Make your second list of the day Lockdown Betts, your daily one-stop shop for all your gambling needs. Lockdown Betts hosted by your boy Q with expert analysis and insight from Lee Sterling

and just like us. Their show is free and available wherever you get your podcast. So have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you tomorrow.