Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - THIS IS IT: The Biggest Moment of the Seattle Mariners' Regular Season Is Here
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The series we've all had circled for months now is finally here.
Let's talk about it.
Colby, hit it.
You are Locked-on Mariners.
Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast.
Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day.
Ahoy, Sailors.
It is Friday, September 19th, 2025.
This is Tedang Azales and Colby Patnode for the Lockdown Marys Podcast.
Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.
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All right, it's time.
The Mariners are down in Houston for the biggest series of the regular season.
The Ms and Astros, of course, are tied atop the AOS at 8.0.
84 and 69 apiece.
They're tied in their season series as well at 5 and 5.
So something has to give this weekend.
And while neither team can technically clench the AOS this weekend,
a series win for either team would put them in the driver's seat
for the division crown with six games to go.
So we'll get into the specifics of the series in segment two.
We'll also tell you what to keep an eye on around the league in segment three.
But to kick things off, Colby,
just tell me your overarching thoughts heading into this.
one. I mean, I don't think it's hyperbole to say this is the most important regular season series
in the history of the franchise. And even if you want to be, you know, contrary in there and say,
no, it's not. I went back and I looked and I think the only thing that comes close to the series,
I had to go all the way back to 2000, where the Mariners went down to Anaheim to play the Angels
in a three-game series. And what ended up happening is they needed to win game one.
to get into the playoffs that year.
And they did.
They won it.
And they got in with 92 wins over the Cleveland Guardians at 91 wins.
So they needed that win to get in and they got it.
So that was probably the biggest series before this.
And that was to get in as a wild card.
So this is to, again, give yourself a leg up on the division.
If you sweep or if the Astros sweep you, the division is over.
Like it is done, maybe not statistically, but it is over.
So sweeping on either side is, you know, your season's over, your focus on the wildcard at that point.
So it is that big.
But like you mentioned, they're tied five to five in the season matchup.
They're tied record-wise.
So they're just basically at zero and zero all the way around.
So the winner of this series is going to have the tiebreaker.
not only will they have a one game lead.
They also have the tiebreaker on top of it.
So like the stakes couldn't be higher.
This is the most important series of, you know,
in terms of regular season series,
if it's not number one,
it's top three or four in the entire history of the franchise.
So, you know,
it's one of those things.
This is a playoff series.
If you want to playoff baseball,
wake up, you're getting it.
This is a playoff series.
And it needs to be managed like it is.
We'll see if,
Dan Wilson is willing to do that.
I think it probably will be, but that is the importance of the series.
You have a team in Houston who has been at the top of the ladder in this division for pretty
much a decade.
I think the only year they haven't won the division was in 2020, which doesn't really count
for obvious reasons.
And while Texas has knocked them out of the playoffs recently and they were a first round
exit last year, like this is the Astros division.
They have run this thing for a day.
decade. And right now, you really, for the last four or five years, you have been the best
consistent challenger to that title. So you are the usurper. You are trying to take their crown from
them. And they are trying desperately to hold on to it. Because when you give an inch,
you know, that's all it takes for your entire empire to crumble. And so that's, they're protecting their
turf. They're at, they're in their home ballpark, trying to protect the legacy of their of their team and
and of this specific run trying to maintain dominance over the American League West.
And while the Mariners have played very well against the Astros and have won season series a couple times here in the last three years,
you know, they have not quite been able to slay the dragon over 162 games.
And they have that opportunity to do that today.
Like the stakes could not be higher for either side.
So it is, you know, just in terms of pure baseball, this is as good as it gets for regular season baseball.
Like if you're not a fan of either of these teams, you would probably be circling this series and being like, I'm going to watch that because that is peak regular season baseball.
The only way it gets better is if this was game 163 and they don't do those anymore.
So like it doesn't get any better.
The stakes can't get any higher for a regular season series.
And one of these teams is going to walk out of, you know, this weekend with a great position and not only in great position to win the American League.
but to also get a buy and get a direct path to the ALDS, which could be huge, especially in this American League where anybody can win it.
Anybody can win this American League right now.
And so to only have to win, you know, 11 games or sorry, to only have to win seven games to get to the World Series instead of having to win nine is huge.
Like that could be the difference.
So everything's on the line.
The stakes can't get higher.
This is it.
This is what all those, you know, all those clunkers you played in.
in July and in June, and this is what it all led to.
And the 10-game win streak and, you know, the Gino trade and the Nailor trade, like, all of that led up to this.
This is what you make those moves for.
This is what you grind out those slow days in spring training for.
And this is what we as fans sit in April and, you know, when they're playing in Minnesota and it's 15 degrees and they're down six to nothing in the eighth.
Like you do all that.
You make all those sacrifices to get to this spot right here.
And in the next 27 innings, at least, we're going to find out.
We're going to find out who the better team is.
And it all comes down to this.
I mean, there really is, you can't ask for anything more.
But it's a huge opportunity.
And, you know, I think 2022 taught us anything is you don't really know when these opportunities are going to come again.
You can't take them for granted and think like, oh, well, they'll get back here, you know, shortly if they don't get it this time.
Maybe not.
Maybe, but maybe not.
It's not a guarantee.
So, you know, you're facing an Astros team that just swept the Rangers.
You've won 11 of your last 12.
You're both playing good ball recently.
You know, they're not going to have Yorra's.
We think they are going to have Isok Paredes, who that should underline the importance of the series.
Isok Paredes is coming off of a massive hamstring tear.
And he's being thrown into the lineup today without a rehab assignment.
Like he's got, what do you say, 14 at-bats, like against live.
That's what a spot is.
Yeah, that's what a spot has said on the, on Wednesday.
Yeah.
So this is best foot forward for both teams, as best as they possibly can right now.
And that just speaks to how, you know, this game, how the series means everything.
And you can see that just from the way that the both teams decided to line up their pitching matchups.
It was not lined up like this originally.
They had to skip or they had to move guys around a little bit a few weeks ago to make sure that they get this lineup and get this group of pitchers going against each.
other. So I mean, it's, it's great. Like it is, it is a little bit like, it's a little bit like
Super Bowl, was that 49? Seahawks Patriots is that 49? Where it's like, yeah, it's an all time
great game. Like this is going to be a fantastic series. But if you're on the losing side of it,
you're probably never going to want to think about it again. So it, you know, it has, the stakes aren't
quite that high because that was a Super Bowl. And this is just, you know, games won 150,
four through 156 or whatever like uh but it's up there i mean it doesn't get any better than this it
doesn't get any bigger than this and yeah yeah if you're not a little bit nervous about that if you're
not a little bit uh panicked about that uh you know when the mariners are down one to nothing in the
third inning tonight i i don't know what you're doing like i i don't know how you're consuming
baseball if you're not both you know equally excited but also terrified uh of the outcome of the
series.
Yeah.
Look, you know, we all know the history and the storyline setting into this one.
You talked about it a little bit.
I mean, this is, it's little brother versus big brother.
You know, it's the team you and everyone else in the ALS have been trying to put
to bed for almost a decade now.
You know, and like you said, this is the biggest regular season series the
Maris have played in and at least something like 25 years.
So, you know, there's a lot of pressure.
and anxiety that comes with that.
But look, in the end,
the road doesn't stop with the Astros.
This isn't the finish line.
The Astros at the end of the day,
they're just another team in the way of where you ultimately want to go.
Just like the Rockies are going to be.
Just like the Dodgers are going to be.
And whoever, you know,
you would face in October if you get there.
So to me,
this series isn't really about proving anything
to a certain team or a certain fan base or the division as a whole or whatever to me it's just
another crucial stepping stone towards winning a championship and if you want to win it all you got to
win games and series like this and like you said it's going to be a great series you know you got
your best guys against their best guys it all wraps up on national television it's the only
baseball game that's going on on sunday night this is real baller
And, you know, I think this club has what it takes to meet the moment, you know, to seize the moment.
And I hope they do.
All right.
So let's dive into the specifics of this series.
Let's get into the pitching matchups, all that in just a moment.
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So whichever team wins this series is at least going to walk away from it with essentially
a two game lead because of the tiebreaker.
It would be one game in the standings, but then plus one because of the tiebreaker or
potentially four games if they sweep with the tiebreaker.
And again, these two teams, they're throwing their best guys against one another.
For the Astros, it's Hunter Brown tonight against
Brian Wu and then Frumber
Valdez against George Kirby
and then Jason Alexander against Logan Gilbert
and you know like you mentioned
Esoc Paredes is back
he's had only
14 live at bats and live BP
maybe more but that's what a spot has said
on Wednesday
Yordon Alvarez is
probably going to be the corresponding move there
if I had to guess
they're trying to you know
play mom on this thing for whatever
reason, but it's, I mean, you look at the freeze frame of Yordon's injury. Like, it's,
it's not good. The fact that they've already said he's going to be out a while, but they still
haven't put him on the IL. And yeah, it's the posturing of like, oh, you don't know who we have
available to you. Like the Mariners don't already have a game plan for Yorda on Alvarez anyways,
but, uh, yeah, it's, it's posturing right now. But yeah, I mean, you watch that video,
you pretty much read between the lines of what's being said. Yordawn's problem.
not coming back this year at least not in the regular season yeah so it'll be interesting to
see how the Astros construct their lineup because someone that's hitting right now is probably
going to get left out I assume Paratus is going to be the DH yeah which probably means
Victor Quarantini is going on the bench or Yoner Diaz is going on the bench yeah I mean
last time the mariner saw houston carrentini was the biggest threat in the entire lineup so
we'll see how that goes but yeah somebody's going to have to find the bench here yeah and uh yeah
like you said you know a lot has changed with this roster just like a lot has changed with the mariner's
roster since these two teams lost saw one another you know now it's hazo sancho it's carlos
korea's back obviously you know they got romona rius on the bench uh they don't have
Josh Hater in their bullpen anymore.
Right.
You know, he's hurt.
Craig Kimbril is now in that bullpen, though.
And the Astros, they haven't seen Aeohaniosaurus.
They haven't seen Josh Naylor.
Hope.
So.
Caleb Ferguson.
Kevin Jackson.
That's right.
Luke Jackson.
They're not ready to deal with Leo Rivas.
Yeah.
So, you know, does Zach Cole get left on the bench so they can move Altuvae to the outfield and
Paratus plays on the field?
Like, I assume Paratus is only going to deevasis.
but maybe in order for them to make all of this work and get their nine best
offensive players in the lineup maybe they force them out there I mean they're
forcing him to play in the series in general with no rehab assignment and him you know
having a what a plasma injection instead of having season ending surgery like so who
knows you know maybe they force him out there but yeah it's you know it's Jake Myers
it's Altuve it's Jeremy Pena it's Christian Walker you know the deal with this Sam
So Brian Wu, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, all going to have to be at their best in this one.
There isn't a break in this lineup.
They got guys that can come off the bench to play matchups as well.
And thankfully, at the very least, like we talked about yesterday, the smearys bullpen in pretty good shape.
Gabe Spire is not going to be available tonight.
We'll see about if he's available tomorrow.
But there also aren't many opportunities to sign up.
and, you know, if they bring him in against Hazu Sanchez,
they're just going to pinch it, Cam Smith,
or they're going to pinch it, you know, Dubon.
Yeah, the absence of Yordon kind of makes Spire's importance here a little bit lower.
Now, I still trust Spire against Rides.
So, you know, if it's, hey, let's force them to go to the bench early
by bringing in Spire here and all that, like, fine.
I still trust Spire to get out Dubon.
and you know cam smith for the most part uh but yeah i mean the the absence of yordawn in the
middle of that lineup uh kind of makes planning your bullpen a little simpler but it doesn't
make it easier it just simplifies things a little bit for you yeah so uh yeah i mean the pitching
matchups are incredible uh these lineups are great for the mariners you need to get to this astro's
bullpen. They've been incredibly shaky.
Brian and Brayu has been especially shaky
trying to close out games. I mean, if you
watch the Rangers Astro series,
you know that for San,
especially with, you know, the way that
ninth inning went in that six to five game
that was at one point six to one.
Yeah. So,
you know, last time you faced Hunter Brown,
you got him out of that game in four innings.
That's going to have to be the game plan.
I don't know how many runs, if any, you're going
to get against Hunter Brown tonight.
Yeah.
The focus should be getting him out of the game,
just like it was against Cole Regens the other night.
Now,
Regens was obviously,
you know,
on a pitch count.
So you kind of knew exactly when he was,
you know,
when the Royals were going to tap out there.
Mm-hmm.
You know,
I don't know how much a spot is going to force these guys to go.
Because again,
this is a playoff series.
So maybe Hunter Brown goes over 100 pitches in this one.
Maybe Framberg goes over 100 pitches on this one.
I mean,
we saw,
you know,
Dan Wilson have Luis throw away.
114 pitches or whatever it was the last time they were down in Houston.
So that could be the case for the Mariners too.
They have the off day on Monday to kind of reset everything.
So would they push Munoz to pitch in every game in this series?
They might because we're at that time of the year.
Again, it is a playoff series.
It needs to be managed as such,
which means, hey, you know, maybe like Mitch Garber is going to be in the lineup
against Framber on Saturday.
We know that.
Well, if you chase Framber after five and Garber's coming up against, you know, a tough righty,
you probably have to be okay, pinch hitting, you know, Dom-Can zone or Luke Rayleigh for him in the sixth or in the fifth even.
Like, you have to be prepared to do that.
You have to be prepared to be like, hey, we're up by four in the sixth or we're up by two in the six, whatever it is.
Like, let's take, you know, Dom-Can zone out of this game and get Victor Robles.
And even though Canzone has another bat coming up, we need to play kind of some run prevention here.
so let's get our best defense.
Let's take, you know, Jorge Polanco out of second base,
even though, you know, we're only up by one in the eighth.
He might get another bat.
He might not.
Well, we have to prioritize defense.
You have to do that.
You have to be, the bullpen has to always be active, right?
You can't just sit and wait for a starting pitcher to figure things out.
You have to be proactive here.
And that is one of my concerns going into the series is Dan Wilson's
inexperience in situations like this and his complete failure that
we've seen throughout the year in situations managing like this.
So we'll see if he steps his game up.
It's certainly possible.
But these are playoff games.
Like anyway,
most I say these are playoff games.
And it's a series that you have to win.
If you want any shot to win this division,
you have to win the series, period.
Yeah.
Because you look at what the Astros have coming up after you leave.
It's significantly easier than what you have because you still have the Dodgers
who are still trying to hold on to the,
to the National League West.
right now.
So like you have to win the series, period, end of story.
You're not going to gain two games on Houston in the last six.
It's not going to happen.
So you have to win this series.
And whoever wins tonight has such a massive advantage over the weekend that I would venture to say,
the winner of tonight's game is going to win the American League West.
So certainly not a guarantee, right?
Obviously Seattle could lose and they win the next two and nobody cares about losing on Friday.
I understand that's a possibility,
but just because of the advantage you have
of managing with one game in your back pocket over the weekend,
cannot be overstated.
It's the same thing in the wild card round.
Winning in game one was so important for Seattle
that it afforded them to be aggressive with their bullpen in game two,
even when they were down by seven or eight,
because they had a win in their back pocket.
It also forced the Blue Jays to go to guys earlier than they wanted to,
to take guys, I mean to take Gossman out,
when he probably shouldn't have because they couldn't risk it because they can't blow this game
because they're already down a game.
That is what winning game one affords you.
So hopefully the mayors can get it done tonight.
It will not be easy.
It never is.
But you've beaten Hunter Brown a couple times this year or well, you should have.
You beat him once and then you should have beat him the other time and then you blew it.
So, you know, there is some track record here.
You can get this guy out of the game early, put some pressure on him,
get to the bullpen early in the series and wear those guys down.
for Saturday and Sunday.
One other thing I would keep in mind here,
Framber Valdez has been, you know,
really good overall.
And, you know, the Mariners kind of hit or miss against Framber.
They either really handle him very well or he'll go seven scoreless against them.
Like they have the same game plan and Framber doesn't change his game plan against
the Mariners.
The Mariners don't change it against Framber.
It's just who executes better.
But keep in mind, look at Framber's last five starts.
He went four innings, gave up five runs.
he went seven innings gave up four runs he went five innings gave up six runs went seven shutout
innings against the rockies and then he went five innings and gave up seven runs yeah and his last five
so he has you know how easy it is to make him crash out yes he is he is kind of george kirby
coded in that way where something doesn't go right he will implode on himself and i mean he
we literally saw it the cross up the famous cross up like yeah against
the Yankees. That is what you can do. You can get inside Framber's head. But you have to put pressure on him.
You can't, you know, and the mayors are going to be aggressive with Framber. They're not going to try to
work counts. They're going to look for that pitch that's a little bit elevated and they're going to swing at it.
Yeah. That is what they've always done against Framber Valdez is what they're always going to do.
So that's that Saturday matchup in particular is really interesting because Framber certainly can, you know,
throw seven scoreless against you. You could also get five or six off of them and make him have a very short
day. So keep that in mind. It really is going to come down to the counter of Wu, Kirby, and Logan. I wish
I felt better about Logan. I wish I felt a little bit better about Kirby right now. But it is what
it is. And this is where you step up. Like the year of angst and, you know, disappointment surrounding
Kirby and Gilbert can largely be wiped away by a couple really good starts this weekend.
So we'll see how it goes.
But yeah, I really do think the winner of tonight's game is going to win the American League West.
Just that advantage of having that game one in your back pocket.
And I would say, unfortunately, the matchup tonight favors the Astros.
So you're going to kind of have to steal one to win this series.
But again, it's not 100%.
Of course, you could just win the next two after tonight and just be fine.
Winning the first one and losing the first one and winning the next two.
is certainly better than winning the first one and losing the next two.
It doesn't really matter what order you win the series in,
but it does feel like winning tonight is so important.
It sets you up so well for the next two.
And you got Wu going tonight.
Right.
And that's your best shot.
So yeah,
I think the winner of tonight's game is going to win the series
and therefore is going to win the American League.
The American League West.
Yes.
Well, maybe the American League too.
Probably the favorite one we get to it.
but yeah I mean again if you're this marron's offense you just got to be annoying the series
yeah I don't know how many runs you're going to be able to score off of all three of these
starters especially hunter brown but you know if you're going to have a scoreless inning or
you're going to go up three up three down you got to make sure that they earn that right you got
to take a piece of them with you every single time right if it's a three up three down
then it better be a 17 pitch three up three down right you know maybe you know
On the surface, it's like, oh, you messed up an opportunity.
You had first and third and two outs and you didn't score there.
Yeah, but at the very least you ran that pitch count up.
And you got to get into this Houston bullpen.
You have to get into this Houston bullpen.
Right.
Houston bullpen's still pretty good, but they are struggling a little bit right now.
It's still pretty good, but it is weaker.
And, you know, especially with no Josh Hater there at the back end.
Yep.
It is a lot less daunting than it has been over the last couple of years.
So we'll see.
All right.
So let's wrap things up here.
and look at the out of town scoreboard what's coming up this weekend because that's also still a bit important, even though the most important thing is obviously happening down in Houston.
We'll go over that in just a moment.
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And you're listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast.
So let's take a look at the out of town scoreboard before we get out of here and what's coming up this weekend across the league.
First and foremost, I guess we'll find out just how down bad the tigers are because they're hosting the Braves and what should be a get
right series for them at home.
But if that series goes sideways for them, then, yeah, they might be in real trouble.
So definitely want to keep an eye on them.
And obviously, if you win the series and they lose a couple, you know, you get, you
would be at the very least tied and technically have the second seat over them because of
the tiebreaker.
So definitely want to keep an eye on the tigers, but you also want to keep an eye on the
guardians in case this series goes sideways because what you don't want to happen here,
If you do lose a series or God forbid gets swept by the Astros, you don't want to come out on the other side of it and go, oh, no, now we're on the outside looking at the playoff picture.
Because if the Guardians sweep the twins and you get swept, you technically would be out of the playoffs for the moment because the half game wouldn't be settled yet from the guardian standpoint.
So even though you have the tiebreaker over them, that you would be on the outside looking in on Monday.
if those two things happen.
Boston and Tampa Bay are playing.
That's another kind of like,
let's see how down bad this team is right now.
So I want to keep an eye on them as well
because on the flip side of the,
you know, the Guardian stuff, right?
Like, I mean, the Guardians are chasing the Red Sox right now.
They're not chasing the,
they're chasing the Red Sox at the moment.
And, you know, if you can continue to have that buffer
between you and the Guardians, that would be nice.
I would, you know, help ease my anxiety.
at least a little bit as far as making the playoffs goes.
So yeah,
a lot to keep an eye on.
Obviously,
the thing to most focus on here is the series.
And if you win the series or even sweep,
I mean,
you're in the driver's seat to win the division and the rest of the stuff doesn't matter,
except for the Tigers.
Like you're not worried.
If you win the series slash sweep,
like you're not worried about the guardians or the Red Sox.
You're not worried about what any of those teams are doing at that point.
Yeah.
So go Mariners,
go raise,
go twins.
And that it?
No, like we have to worry about Texas and Kansas City anymore.
No.
Mariners, Astros, Braves, Tigers,
Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox, Rays.
Oh, and Cleveland, Minnesota.
Yeah.
So there you go.
Those are the only games you need to pay attention to,
and really the only game you need to pay attention to
is the one that your team is playing in,
because that is the most important one by a mile.
Yeah.
If the twins could just get one one here, though, this weekend, that would put my mind at ease a little bit more.
Because there is, like, on top of all the anxiety of this.
Rocky series, still only not to a playoff spot.
Yeah, on top of all the anxiety and the pressure just of this series in general, there is like that thing in the back of my mind of like, oh, if this goes sideways and the guardians continue to stay hot and just keep on winning, then you might have real, real, real problems.
So, yeah.
If the twins could just win one.
And hey, they beat the Yankees once.
Almost beat them twice.
Yeah.
Scored nine unanswered runs after trailing by 10.
So twins have not given up.
Pablo Lopez on the bump tonight.
So, yep, wouldn't count them out.
But yeah, it's really all about you and all that.
Like in terms of the division, you need to win the series, period.
In terms of the playoffs, just like if that's your only concern, you cannot get swept.
Yeah, just won one.
Just make sure you win one.
So we'll see.
I will see if they get any help.
But right now,
the only help the Mariners need is from the 28 guys in that clubhouse.
Yeah.
And that starts as we record this in about six hours.
All right.
Well,
that's going to do it for our show.
Thank you so much for joining us here on the lockdown Maris podcast.
For Colby Pat Node,
I'm Tadangonzalez.
Be sure you give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners.
You can follow me at Tading Gonzalez and Colby at C-Pat-11.
We're also.
on blue sky you can follow me at TDG
Colby at MLB Colby and the show at Lockdown
Marrors. You can also find us on
Instagram at Lockdown Merrers. Have yourself
a beautiful baseball day and a beautiful
baseball weekend and we'll see you next time.
Peace.
