Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - THIS OR THAT: Should the Seattle Mariners TRADE Lazaro Montes or Michael Arroyo This Winter?!

Starting point is 00:00:00 If we had to trade one this winter, who would we rather deal? Michael O'Royo or Laza Romantos? Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors, it is Thursday, September 17th, 2026. My name is Tadding Azales, and I'm joined, as always, by my co-coes Colby Patnode. Today's episode is brought to you by Calci for a limited time.

Starting point is 00:00:34 Download Calci. and use the promo code locked on to get $25 when he trade $25. Cal She, trade what's next? On today's show, as we gear up for the off season, we're going to test around a segment we're planning to do this winter, and we still don't have an official name for. So for now, we're going to call it this or that, but it's also like, would you rather, whatever?

Starting point is 00:00:55 Maybe that winds up being the actual name, this or that. But basically, Colby has a few topics planned today, and he's going to present us with two options to choose from, and then we'll go from there. So Colby, get us started. Yeah. So first up, we'll just follow along the little board here. Ty, the Mariners have a very interesting decision to make this winter.

Starting point is 00:01:17 Either they can try and fix their offense or they can try and fix, let's call it, run prevention. So what should be the priority this winter? Scoring more runs are giving up. fewer runs and obviously there's some crossover here but what should be the priority the bat or the glove speed pitching whatever you want to call it run for run scoring versus run prevention what should the mariners focus on this winter i'm going to go run prevention because i think the run scoring even with the loss of randy a rose ranna the expected loss of randy a rose arena this off season uh i do think the offense will be better in 2027 because of cal because of cal because

Starting point is 00:02:04 because of Huli, like, because Josh Nailor, like, I don't think those three guys are going to be as bad as they were for the majority of this season. So to me, it's clearly run prevention because that side of things for the Maris has been killer for them this year. They're so bad at the little things. And especially here in the second half, they just can't pitch. Rotations been bad. Bullpen's been bad. They don't play good defense. They don't run the base as well.

Starting point is 00:02:34 like you know and that's not part of run prevention but that goes into the whole like they they are just bad at the little things right and I want them to focus on getting better at the little things and some of that I think is just coaching some of that I think is just hopefully new new year and you know things just kind of naturally changed that way but I think also some of it is bringing in some some new talent as well and guys that are particularly good at at those things good at defense good at base running all that. So yeah, so specifically on the run prevention front, though, I mean, we talked about this. They need to make significant changes in the bullpen.

Starting point is 00:03:12 Yeah. And I would like to see them get better defensively and make moves specifically in order to do that, right? Instead of spending $6 to $7 million on this year's Rob Refsniter, you know, the lefty masher who's only a bat and doesn't do anything else, rather see them spend that kind of money on a glove first player who, Yeah, he might be a black hole or something, you know, akin to that offensively, but he's a really good defender and still is a net positive because of that. Yeah, I think there's this kind of, I mean, first of all, obviously part of run prevention is acquiring, you know, players who play defense. And those players who play defense also do have to hit. And so ideally, yeah, you want somebody who's a good glove and a good hitter.

Starting point is 00:04:02 Right. The problem with that is, is that the Mariners are changed. cheap and those players are expensive typically speaking. So obviously, you know, it's you're not acquiring a glove just to play. You're hoping they hit a little bit. But oftentimes the bat is more expensive than the kind of well-rounded player. And so I think when we hear people talk about like offense or we hear people say like, oh, they need to be run prevention.

Starting point is 00:04:29 I think there's this idea that like the Mariners need to be top five and, you know, defensive runs saved. They don't. They don't have to be top five. They can just, they just don't have, they just can't be like the worst team in baseball. They just need to be competent and they're not competent this year at those things. Just be at, if you're an average defensive team this year, I think you probably legitimately have seven, eight more wins this year. If you're just average defensively, that's how bad you've been this year.

Starting point is 00:04:58 And can you find average gloves who are also, you know, decent hitters? Yeah, those players do exist. they're called everyday players. And there are quite a few of them out there. And they cost a little bit of money, or they cost a little bit in prospect capital, but they're not like actually super $30 million year players to get. And I also think people undervalue how valuable average is. If you are an average everyday player, that's a good player.

Starting point is 00:05:26 That's a player that's worth about $20 million a year. But they usually only cost about $10 million. million dollars a year. Like they're a good bargain because they're not all-stars. They don't have upside. They don't do they don't have a carrying tool. There's kind of, you know, 50s across the board. It's a good player.

Starting point is 00:05:42 The Mariners could use some players like that. And I would agree with you. You know, the offense I think is naturally going to get better next year, hard for it to get worse, even though they're losing Randy. I mean, at this point, it'd be more shocking if Dan Wilson came back than if Randy or Rosa Rana did. So he's probably not coming back. But you're going to get a better cow.

Starting point is 00:06:03 You're going to get a better. Julio, you should get a better Josh Nader. You should get a healthier Brennan Donovan. And those guys just playing better and playing more is going to kind of lift the tides of your offensive output. And remember, you can replace value in a lot of different ways. You can replace Randy's 140 WRC plus with a 100 WRC plus guy who is an elite glove or whatever, like Stephen Kwan.

Starting point is 00:06:26 And they're going to be roughly the same value of a player. So you can just kind of reallocate some of what you're looking for. I think there is this idea that when we say you have to get better at the glove, you have to get better at the little thing. There's this idea like, oh, just rebuild the entire team with slap hitters. Like, no, that's not what we're saying here. But if you can get a player or two that kind of improve these key positions, third base, shortstop, corner outfield, like you need to get better defensively there

Starting point is 00:06:55 and at least two of those spots. And again, you don't have to be top five. You just have to be average defensively. And again, like if you are going to swim in these shallow waters and free agency and you're only going to be willing to give a couple of guys a one year seven-ish million dollar deal, give it to the guy that plays good defense and runs the base as well instead of, you know, the guy that has, that is essentially a one-trick pony like you've been doing with the Solanos and the Pollux and the rough centers the world. because if their one trick suddenly falls off a cliff, then as we've seen, like, they don't provide value. Yeah, they don't provide value anywhere else. So you need to just cut ties.

Starting point is 00:07:36 And then we see this thing where they just let it linger for on and on and on and on because they don't want to wave the white flag on the steel that they've made, but it's like pretty clear like the writing's on the wall. So instead, get you a guy that has a multitude of ways to contribute, multiple paths to contribute. And, you know, I look at someone that you've been talking about quite a bit as of late, like Maricio DuPone, who's never been a 100 WRC plus bat.

Starting point is 00:08:02 But he hits for a high average. He runs the bases fairly well, and he's a good defender who can play multiple spots. And that's probably a guy that's going to make seven to ten-ish million dollars this year in free agency. Much better to give him the money than to give it to an AJ Pollock or Rob Refs Snyder or Donovan Solano. And we're going to talk about a lot of these guys. We're going to talk a lot about Lane Thomas and like, you know, guys like that. And we're going to have a couple trade candidates who are glove first and you kind of hope the back comes along. But like there's going to be stopgaps too because Colt Emerson could be a part of helping your defense.

Starting point is 00:08:38 But we have to be sure he's a major leaguer. And we don't know that he is yet. So it's kind of one of those things again. Like I think there might be a tendency to like over correct and be like, oh, we have to be top five defense. Like you don't. You just have to be average. Last year's team, by most metrics, the 2025 team, were middle of the pack. Like they were 15 to 20, somewhere in that range.

Starting point is 00:08:58 They weren't outlier bad. And this year that the Mariners were just atrocious at pretty much any metric you want to use, except for fielding percentage. And by the way, if you're still using fielding percentage in the year of our Lord 2026, seek help. That's a terrible step. That's an awful stab. Oh, look, the mirrors are fifth and fielding.

Starting point is 00:09:16 Who cares? That just means they don't get to enough balls to have a low fielding percentage. Oh, yeah, like, no. We saw how many times have we seen a slow ground ball leak through the infield? Because J.P. Crawford doesn't have a range to knock it down. Also the way that errors and hits are handed out nowadays. Like, yeah. Oh, we can do a whole, we could do a whole episode of just being like, look at this ball right here.

Starting point is 00:09:36 They call this a hit. Yeah, right. Isn't that stupid? So, yeah, fielding percentage is terrible. Don't look at it. But the Mariners do need. I would agree. The mayor's do need to focus on run prevention.

Starting point is 00:09:45 We talked a lot about our defense in that segment, but also the bullpen very clearly is a huge. is a huge area of need there. And that's probably where a bulk of your run prevention additions would come from is actually the bullpen. And that's why it's a no-brainer to me that it's run prevention over run scoring here because like that it's dire, frankly. The situation in the bullpen. Like you need to make significant changes and make significant additions to that group. And then on top of that, yeah, you need to get better defensively. you need to get better at the little things.

Starting point is 00:10:21 And so, you know, again, we talk about winning on the fringes, winning on the margins, right? The Mariners haven't been particularly good at that. This front office hasn't been particularly good at that. Well, this is the way that you start to reverse course on that a little bit. If you start to value these things like defensive, you know, first type of players, like a Mauricio Du Bonn. Like if you start focusing on that, that might be a way to, you know,

Starting point is 00:10:46 turn things around here in that regard. All right. Coming up. Would we rather trade Lazaro Montas? Michael O'Royo. But first, a reminder of this episode of the lockdown airs podcast

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Starting point is 00:13:44 your first listen for all things, Mariners, and also thank you for making Lockdown the number one sports podcast network. So we're playing a little game of this or that. Colby, what's our next topic here? It's the young guys. And it is essentially you have to trade one of the only reasons we've watched baseball this month. Are you training Lazaro Montez or are you trading Michael Arroyo?

Starting point is 00:14:08 Because while you may not want to trade either of them, the simple fact of the matter is is that this team cannot run out both of those guys in their opening day in line up next year and be taken seriously about anything. it is just not acceptable to have two 21-year-olds in your opening day lineup when you're trying to win the World Series. In addition to possibly Colt Emerson, you might have three 21-year-olds in your opening day lineup next year. That is just not acceptable in any way, shape, or form. And we've seen nothing from Colt or Las or really a Royo. They haven't really played that much, so it's kind of tough to say. But we haven't seen enough to be like, oh, yeah, they're definitely ready for the major leagues next year. So, yeah, I mean, I think you're going to have to try.

Starting point is 00:14:50 one of these guys, which one would you rather trade? Well, if I have to trade one of them, I think the answer is pretty clearly, Les, for a couple of reasons. I mean, in 2027, you just mentioned that, like, right now, as things are currently constructed, you'd be running out 3, 21-year-olds, one of whom in Cole Emerson is not going to swing a bat for an entire off-season that we don't know, you know, when the season is actually going to begin and if he's going to have enough time to ramp up because of the, because the season

Starting point is 00:15:22 just gets pushed out enough, but still, like, he's going to be behind. There's just no certainty, or there is very little certainty, right? This team needs certainty. And of the two guys that you've presented me with here, Arroyo and Las,

Starting point is 00:15:38 Royo to me brings more certainty. Now, he doesn't in terms of a defensive fit, you know, I don't know where he's going to play. We all kind of assume that he's going to be Randy's replacement in left field, but like, we haven't seen it. We don't know if he's actually going to be a viable left fielder. So there's obviously that.

Starting point is 00:15:59 It's not like Las's glove is leaps and bounds better. No, and I'm not really trying to make that comparison. I'm just saying, like, you know, there's obviously some uncertainty still with a royal, but I think he's going to hit. Las with high strikeout rates, obviously we've seen the upside of Las and that power. Boy, have we. It's, he's electric. is electric. No one is denying that.

Starting point is 00:16:21 But obviously the high strikeout rates, the incredibly low end zone contact rates, I'm not sure what that's going to look like over the course of a full season. Now obviously he can put in the work over the course of the off season, get a lot better and look like a much different hitter once opening day finally swings around whenever that is next year. But if I'm just going off of the information

Starting point is 00:16:43 that I have right now, to me, Laz is because he has just the much lower floor and also because he has the much higher upside. Now, obviously, Beauty's in the eye of the beholder, and he's a very polarizing prospect. So I don't know how every single team views him, but I feel like if you have to trade one of these guys and you want to maximize the return,

Starting point is 00:17:02 while trading Lads could absolutely blow up in your face, and I want to acknowledge that. I want to be sure to acknowledge that. I think you trade Lazz here to maximize the return. Maybe. I mean, like some teams, like you said, beauty's in the eye of the beholder. Lazz isn't even like on their board. They're just like, there's no way that guy is going to hit.

Starting point is 00:17:24 He's got a 66% in zone contact rate. Very small sample size, but like that's basically what we assumed would happen, right, at the major league level. So confirming priors a little bit. But yeah, like it's one of those things where it's like also not to mention like, you kind of have a lot of guys like Lazz already on your roster. You have a lot of left handed bats already on the roster. They clearly don't think Lazz is ready to face major.

Starting point is 00:17:50 league pitching, at least left-handed pitching, because he hasn't in his cup of coffee here. And he wasn't particularly good against lefties in the minors either. So there's some real platoon risk there. You already have Canzone, who's kind of looked like he's played his way into part of your long-term future. And maybe they trade Canzone. And then, you know, that's something else we could talk about. But, you know, Las being a big swing and miss lefty, who's only got really one tool right now is certainly not a profile that, the Mariners are short on in their system and certainly not a profile that works particularly well with the current roster as it's constructed.

Starting point is 00:18:28 Now, we should acknowledge that, like, of course, you could keep a Royo and, you know, maybe have him start opening day and left field. I wouldn't like that, but, you know, whatever, maybe. And then you could just send Laz back down to AAA and you can keep him there and you can mature him and he can work on things. And, you know, you don't have to trade one of these guys. I would just say you can't have both of these guys on your roster. at least on opening day.

Starting point is 00:18:51 Now, injuries could happen and things like, obviously there's a lot of nuance to these conversations, but for our purposes here, Oroyo's just the better fit. He's a right-handed bat. He's a better athlete. He can run a little bit more. We don't know for sure how good he's going to be in left. He's barely played out there. But with a full off season, working in the outfield, getting those reps in left field,

Starting point is 00:19:11 I don't think he's going to be worse than Randy defensively. Probably not worse than Las. As hard as Las has worked. out there to be like a playable right fielder. I think a Royal will probably be fine. And also there is a little bit of versatility in Arroyo on that he can at least play second, you know, well enough for a day or two to not kill you.

Starting point is 00:19:33 So that also does factor in here. I think you have to give the edge to the right-handed bat who can, you know, who can impact the game in more ways. And you just have to take the shot that Laz is, you know, unfortunately, either you have to sit him down, in Tacoma for most of the next year, which wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Or you have to trade him because you have to get better for 2027.

Starting point is 00:19:58 And Laz is one of those guys that makes sense to trade. I mean, again, they could keep them. They could trade Stevenson or they could trade Feldman or Formello. But in this scenario, like, it really, it's almost like trading to makes the most sense, but you could also just be like, hey, look, this could be this or that, which one of these guys is making the opening day roster, which one of these guys is going down to AAA. it's also a very plausible scenario. Sure.

Starting point is 00:20:22 Sure. But if we're talking about specifically trading them and like and if you want to make the comparison to like trading Felneen or trading Luke Stevenson or whoever instead, well, the meta in the game right now and the meta in the trade market is guys who are close to or are major league ready and Felneen is probably, he probably has a chance to make his debut next year and so does Stevenson. But like more than likely 2028.

Starting point is 00:20:53 But teams can look at Laz or Royo and go that guy can be in our lineup tomorrow. Right. You know, so, and that's also easier to sell to a fan base and all that as well. So yeah, so there's obviously going to be a lot

Starting point is 00:21:09 of interest in both of these guys, I would expect, even with some of the deficiencies that they have, Lazz, with obviously the, the, the strike. outs and the end zone contact rates and then in zone contact rates and then a royal with his defense but still i think there's going to be a lot of interest just because look they're here they're ready to go right now right i i would say i do think it's close enough um this is total

Starting point is 00:21:33 hypothetical by the way but like i i obviously i would say i do think it's close enough that if like the reds were like yeah we'll trade you l e la cruz but like we need a royo in the package not las like okay buy you know like whatever sure if there is an impact player out there and that team wants a royale specifically instead of las or whatever fine do it but like if the cost is about the same for these two guys like i can get the same type of player uh for either one of these guys my preference would be to trade las uh the end zone contact stuff just scares me so much and and i i don't know how long he's going to be a viable defender uh so there's a chance that he ends up being like this 28 to 35 home run guy who strikes out 38% of the time hits like below 200 and you're just

Starting point is 00:22:22 you're basically rolling with you know joey gallo minus defense uh and that's that's a little terrifying to me so um yeah acknowledging the upside baked into las i think i would take the relative safety and i just think erroyo is a better fit uh his profile is just a better fit on the 2027 squad so that's kind of how i have to look at this going forward yeah like obviously there's a lot of nuance and this is admittedly a very flawed discussion right but like again in a vacuum we have to trade one one of these guys my pick would be lost yeah agreed all right we'll get into colby's last topic in just a moment but first a reminder this episode of the lockdown era's podcast is brought to you by calci make baseball season more this year on calci

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Starting point is 00:24:10 if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, we have a Patreonist called Control the Zone. And on there we talk Mariners, Seahawks, all that good stuff. For more information, go to patreon.com, forward slash control the zone. Link in the description of this episode. So, Colby, what is your final this or that topic of the day?

Starting point is 00:24:30 Well, it involves my absolute favorite player, George Kirby. We just had another stellar outing last night. I think we would agree that the Mariners are going to trade at least one of their starters this winter. And I think you and I both tend to agree that it should be George Kirby. So my question to you is this or that. Would you trade Kirby for one really good prospect, like top 40-ish prospect? Or would you rather trade him for a,

Starting point is 00:25:11 we'll call it like bulk but like quality bulk like a major league bullpen arm and like this this like solid three win outfield you know what I mean like it's not like a bunch of 15 through 20 like organizational prospects but it is like no stars you're not going to get a star out of this deal you're not going to get like an all star even but you're going to get like two solid major leaguers out of this who can help you right away and like a yeah maybe like a Boston Smith. type of prospect. I know this is hard to do without names, but yeah. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:25:50 I mean, are we sure George Kirby could still get you that? I don't know. I don't know. That's, I don't know. I mean, like, I do think so because I think, like, we talked about a while ago. Yeah. Like, I think, well, and also I think teams, there are some teams out there that think they have the fix for George Kirby, right?

Starting point is 00:26:10 And think they can take him to another level. right um and hopefully if there are multiple teams that feel that way then the mares you know use that to their advantage but yeah the last what two months now for george have been rough it's been bad and last night previous you know two years have been amazing either yeah he's well he's he's been he's been good but it's been yeah no he's been solid but like not but he hasn't but he hasn't gone to that level that a lot of people have stagnated he would get to yeah Yeah, he's definitely plateaued a bit. So me personally, I would rather just take the highest upside shot.

Starting point is 00:26:57 You know, try to get like a legit, like, dude, you know, for him. Sure. But the bulk route is probably the route that, like, a team like the Brewers would take. And honestly, it's kind of funny. It might be a cup or might be the Brewers as a team we keep going back to. they might have the two comps we're looking for. Would you rather trade him, would you rather trade George Kirby for the Willie Adomas package,

Starting point is 00:27:21 which was J.P. Fire Eisen and Drew Rasmussen, who were just two relievers that really helped the raise. And then obviously Rasmussen became what he, what he is now. Or would you rather trade him for Jet Williams and, who's the other? Brandon Sprote. Brandon Sprote, like the two good prospects or the two major league relievers that really help you right away. like maybe the brewers have the the right answer for that too maybe that's the comp we should be

Starting point is 00:27:45 looking at but yeah i do think it's interesting because i i think in theory you always want to get the best player you can in any trade but there are scenarios where it's like look i mean yeah this guy's better than the two we're getting but the two we're getting we get an eighth any bullpen arm and kind of a you know athletic shortstop third baseman left field whatever it is you know and who's got some years of club control, that might make more sense than just, you know, maxing out the,

Starting point is 00:28:16 the headliner in a trade. Well, and the Mariners have so many things that they need to address this offseason. And we know money's going to be tight. So while, again, my preference would be to take the biggest shot. And maybe that is just Kirby for,

Starting point is 00:28:33 you know, a top 20, 30, 40-ish prospect. Again, I don't know what George Kirby's value is, right? So I don't know how high. Yeah, I don't know what level of shelf you can actually shop from here with George Kirby. But like if it's one of those guys and then some filler at the back end or instead it's like a really good reliever and maybe an everyday player. Right.

Starting point is 00:29:02 Or a guy that could be an everyday type. Yeah. I think probably the better way to phrase this instead of like bulk versus it's like, would you rather trade Kirby for a prospect package that has a higher ceiling or for major league help right away. Like certainty. You want upside for George or do you want

Starting point is 00:29:20 2027 certainty or at least as certain as we can I mean it's baseball. Nothing's ever certain. But you get the just. Yeah. Safeguards. I don't know. Whatever you want to call it. Yeah. That's probably the best route for them to take. And again,

Starting point is 00:29:39 we've talked about this like the mariners probably need to model themselves more after a team like the brewers or the guardians and that's probably the deal that they would take yeah again devil's in the details obviously like we could sit here and be like oh i'd rather take the bulk package but then you hear the the prospect that you could actually get for george kirby and you're like oh uh no i'll take that actually uh so devils in the details for a lot of these things same with the montes and errol like, well, what can I get for those guys? How different is it? So keep that in mind here. We are talking very abstract here. And maybe once we get more into the offseason, we'll have like, would you rather make this trade or this trade or would you rather do this or that, with like specific players attached to them?

Starting point is 00:30:27 And that will be more legitimate conversation. But yeah, I think it is important to have these kind of philosophical like discussion points because we don't quite yet know who is available this winter. on the trade market. We're maybe learning a few things here and there, but we don't quite know quite yet, and that won't be for another month or so before you really start to get rumors. But once we can put names to these types of things,

Starting point is 00:30:52 it'll be a lot easier to have a definitive like, this is the route I would go or this is, or that is the route I would go. Yeah. I see what you did there. Well, if you like this. If you have any name suggestions too, yeah.

Starting point is 00:31:06 Yeah, yeah. If you like this, let us know in the comments. if you're watching on YouTube or if you have name suggestions for the segment that isn't as boring as just would you rather or this or that or whatever, then let us know, hit us up. All right. That is going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marriss podcast. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day for Colby Pat Note.

Starting point is 00:31:29 I'm Tadeng Gazzalas. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L.O. underscore Marrers. You can follow me at Tadangazales and Colby at C-Pat 11. That's C-PAT-1. We're also on Blue Sky. can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby, and the show at Lockdown Mariners. You can also find us on Instagram and TikTok at Lockdown Mariners.

Starting point is 00:31:45 Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.

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