Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Time For Mariners to Pivot at Positional Needs?

Episode Date: December 16, 2024

It's Mailbag Monday! Ty and Colby answer your Mariners questions, including if Seattle landing the third overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft increases the chances of a Logan Gilbert or George Kirby trade next winter, if the Mariners could pivot to Willi Castro and/or Yandy Diaz in their search for infield help, and more.Check out our Patreon!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolbySupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONMLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime.Omaha SteaksFrom legendary steaks to mouthwatering desserts and more, save fifty percent off site-wide at OmahaSteaks.com. Plus, our listeners get an extra thirty dollars off with Promo Code MLB and a thirty-dollar reward card when you shop early.IbottaDownload the FREE Ibotta app now and use code LOCKEDONMLB to get 100% cash back on your Thanksgiving feast starting November 1.FanDuelYou can start the season with a big return on FanDuel. New customers can place a FIVE DOLLAR bet and you’ll get started with ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS - if you win your first FIVE DOLLAR BET ! Visit FANDUEL.COM to get started. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Well, the Marers still haven't done anything. Is it time for them to pivot? And pivot to what exactly? We'll discuss that and more coming up here on Mailbag Monday. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day.

Ahoy, Sailors. It is Monday, December 16th, 2024. This is Tading Azales and Colby Patnaud for the Lockdown Marys Podcasts. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team, every day. Today, we'll be opening up the mailbag like we do here every Monday. But before we get into your Mariners questions, shout out to our title sponsor today, Game Time. Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use the promo code Locked-on MLB, that's L-O-C-K-A-D-O-N-M-LB for $20 off your first purchase. And if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, check out our Patreon.

All you have to do to check that out is click the link in the description of this episode. So we are officially into our winter schedule. So for the next couple months, until pitchers and catchers report, we'll be posting three shows a week here on lockdown mariners instead of the typical five that we usually do. Those episodes will release on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. And our CTZ Patreon episodes have been moved to Tuesdays and Thursdays. So if you didn't know, now you know. All right. Let's get into your questions.

Bryce wants to know, do you think the mayors take Tyler Bremner or Jamie Arnold, who Joe Doyle mocked to the Merrars, and make the big trade of one of the non-Castio starters next off season? Evans and Morales might be ready by then as well. First things first, obviously a lot can change between now and draft day. Guys, we're not even thinking about, I mean, there might be a new number one pitching prospect by the time. The Mariners come to draft. but yeah, Arnold and Brimner are both pretty special guys. So I think what's most likely to happen here, I mean, the Mariners are going to take the best player,

that whoever they grade out to be the best player, they're going to take that. I don't think they're going to do anything, you know, funky with the slot value and try to, you know, I don't think they're going to do that. I mean, if everything goes well this year, you're not going to pick in the top, you know, 20 next year. And your goal is to never pick in the top five.

So this is a gift that you've been given. You have to take advantage of it. And so could they take Brimner or Arnold? Sure, yeah. If they have them as one of the three best players on the board and they're there. And then, yeah, they absolutely could and should. Like this is not a time to be like, well, you know, they've taken, you know, they need a third basement.

So they kind of have to force a third base pick at their base. Like, no, that's not what happens in the draft. You take the best player you can. And with Brimner and Arnold, you get a couple of guys, both those guys, probably in the big leagues, you know, by 2026. Like in theory, those guys could pitch in the big leagues in 2025. Like, that's how good they are. So, yeah, it's a very interesting situation.

I don't think they take a guy just so they can trade one of their pitchers that they have now, right? They're not going to be like, well, we like our cat more than Bremner, but we want to trade, you know, Logan Gilles. over it this winter. So we're just going to take the pitcher and set. I don't think that's happening. I think they're just taking the best player that will take the money that they're offering. So, yeah, I don't think that it's, I don't think the two are necessarily connected. Is it a happy coincidence that, you know, you have an option, an opportunity to take a guy who probably slots in as a mid-rotation starter, like at a 21 years old? Yeah, that's a nice little bonus. obviously, you know, it's something to consider.

But I don't think that they're, I don't think they're like pushing those guys up their board so that they could trade Castillo or trade Gilbert or whatever. I think that's just going to end up being a byproduct of taking the best player you can. And there's a shot, those two guys go one and two. So you might not get that opportunity. But right now, based on what we can tell, both of those guys, at least mid-rotation, you know, Arnold is a lefty who gets Chris Sale comps. That's pretty interesting.

And Bremner is a guy with two elite pitches from the right side, who's a good athlete. They both throw a ton of strikes. Bremner has probably the best change up in this entire class. And he throws, you know, 95 miles an hour. So with a pretty good slider. So yeah, both of those guys are really good. But I don't think the Mariners are going to value them any higher than they already would just under the thought process. I'm like, oh, now this allows us to trade Gilbert or curvy or anything like that.

John St. Hates the Mariners, which is not just this person's name, but also just a factual statement. With Nico Horner now unlikely to be traded, do you guys think they target Willie Castro more heavily, considering he can play second or third any given day? And with them saying they aren't sure about paying a 34-year-old Christian Walker $20 plus million, do you think they target Yandi Diaz more heavily now? I think they should. I like Yandi Diaz.

Depends on what the race want, but I like Yondi Diaz. And it depends on, you know, what the twins want for Castro and what they're doing. Because the twins are weird. They're looking to sell. They're not going to add payroll. But also it doesn't seem like they're going to trade Carlos Correa. So they probably should still try to compete. Castro would help them do that.

And I don't know if there's a major leaguer that the mayors have that. the twins would want that the marries also feel comfortable trading for one year of willie castro so yeah i'm interested in both of those guys um you know we've talked about castro a lot on here uh yondi is someone that uh i really like uh he was i think he made it on my like top five trade targets list when we did that on top five tuesday a long while ago um but yeah it just depends on what these teams want because it seems pretty clear to me the mares are hitting some brick walls on the trade market with what they're willing to offer yeah you know it's interesting the mariners were in on dyes last summer right up to the deadline it doesn't sound like they were ever the

favorite to land him but they were in in the mix certainly and this is after they acquired randy or rosarena so i continue to kind of think that the whole like randy and dyes can't coexist together, blah, blah, blah, I don't think that's actually a thing. Now, we haven't heard the Mariners linked to Diaz this year, or this winter, as far as I know. So that's a little bit interesting

because they've been linked to just about every other first baseman who has been available this winter. So that's interesting. Tampa Bay is also an interesting situation because they just traded Jeffrey Springs for mostly prospects, but they did get kind of a reliever back, a upside reliever.

And so it does feel like Tampa also they were willing to take pure prospects for Rosarena. So it does feel like the raise are a team that is one of the teams that is still willing to take prospect capital. You know, for their big leaguers. But they did also get a big leagher back in the in the Springs deal. Given the conversations that you've had with them, that should be a trade. like if you are wanting to explore Yandi Diaz trade, that should be a trade that comes together relatively quickly. Like you know what they want.

You know what they like in your organization. Sure. And maybe it's, again, a three team trade where you trade Castillo for, you know, this and then you flip that guy over to the raise for Diaz, you know. So, yeah, I think the raise are still interesting.

I think, you know, Diaz still makes a good deal sense. I don't think that the Randy, you know, Yandy thing is anything, honestly. I think that's an overblown. And even if it is, work past it, your major leaguers.

Right. They did it for two years. Yeah, you guys played together for a couple of years while this was apparently going on. Right. Without incident. So at least, you know, on the field. So, yeah, it's just one of those things. Diaz would be a good fit.

It still sounds like the race one of major leaguer and prospects. Well, again, if they consider Joe Boyle to be a major leaguer because he's pitching the big leagues, then the Mariners certainly have guys like that. and then they can have prospects that they could throw out there too. So, yeah, I think the race still make a lot of sense. Diaz would be a fun target. It's weird that they haven't been. He's the one first baseman in the history of baseball.

They haven't been linked to this winter. And then, yeah, Willie Castro, again, that's all about cost. The twins are the one team that's been, like, quieter than you have than you've been this winter. And they didn't do anything at the deadline. They didn't do anything last winter, except for, you know, trade away, Jorge Polanco. So they're very much, like, at their cap, like, at their payroll cap. I would imagine Castro is not going to cost all that much. They could save a little bit of money.

Maybe it's a, it's a Trent Thornton for Willie Castro. They save a little bit of money. They get a major leaguer, blah, blah, blah. So yeah, I think both of those are good, like, you know, pivots, if you want to call them that. And I would probably rather have, I would probably rather have Diaz than Walker, depending on. Yeah, because we're talking about two years of Diaz,

and one of them is an option. At what, $11 million? I think it's like 10 and like 15 or something like that, yeah. And then, yeah, or give a 34-year-old $20 to $25 million a year for the next three or four years. Right. Yeah, that's a no-brainer to me. Yeah, so, yeah, I'd rather have Diaz than Walker anyway. So, yeah, I think those are both, you know, good pivots.

And I would really like, and the race seem like one of the few teams that will take a prospect heavier package than other teams. And so that to me just makes a tremendous consensus. Yeah. All right. We are going to answer more of your questions here in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown on Marys podcast is brought to you by both

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That's selectquote.com slash locked on. And you're listening to the Locked-on Mariners podcast. It is Mailbag Monday. We're answering your Mariners questions. Jeff wants to know of the teams interested in Luis Castillo, which one would offer the Mariners the best deal? To me, it's the Cubs because they have the infielder that the Mariners apparently covet.

also have some interesting back end of the rotation pitchers that could also be included in the deal to help you kind of offset the loss of casio at least a little bit right um but yeah the ken rosenthal article that came out a couple days ago makes it sound like horners no longer a possibility because of the trade of isaac paratus now is that just posturing on the cup side who knows but uh it's possible that that's now dead uh for the But yeah, that's the one team that to me made quite a bit of sense that lined up pretty well on a Castillo deal. Everyone else, though, that's been mentioned publicly at least. Doesn't make a ton of sense for me. Like Red Sox a little bit. But we went through this last week when we talked about all the teams that were mentioned. Like the Orioles. They really don't like Casas.

Then Red Sox don't really make that much sense. Yeah, the Orioles, who's the headliner? Again, the Mariners have, I mean, the Rosenthal article laid it out. The Mariners feel like they are only going to trade Castillo if that deal makes them better, or at least sets them up to be better. Right, for 2025, not just for the future. I'll throw this out there about the Orioles. I thought of this weekend.

Kobe Mayo, which again, we've talked about. That's a bit of a risk. But what if you also get Cedric Mullins? So you have one guy who's like a floor player who's probably a platoon guy, but whatever, he helps. And then you have the upside play. Now that eats into the money that you save. Right. It's about eight, eight, nine million bucks.

Yeah. So you would only be saving about 15. But so would so would Horner. Right. Right. Right. Right. You know, a couple of other guys that we've talked about.

I do feel like if Castillo is traded, which right now I'm at about a 50-50, like a true 50-50. It's probably going to be to a surprise team. Like a team that we're just like, oh, wow, we didn't even talk about them. So maybe it's like, I don't know, like a Detroit. Maybe it's like, I don't know, Arizona or something like that. If it was Detroit, it'd have to be Carrie Carpenter, right? We know they love him.

The players, I am fairly confident, the Mariners, have attempted to acquire from Detroit over the last few years. Or Carrie Carpenter and Parker Meadows. Now, Meadows isn't good enough to be the headliner. That would be hilarious after what Parker Meadows

did to this team last year. He's not good enough to be the headliner. But he's pretty good or he's pretty good secondary piece. Yeah, it probably have to be Carpenter unless the Mariners really like like Jay Young. But again, that's kind of

of the Kobe mail thing where it's like we hope this guy helps us this year we're not really 100% sure he will so yeah like and that's kind of what you run into with all castio trades it's like they have a headliner but it's like kind of an unproven major league guy like who you still like the like the upside of plenty sure but yeah you know and so um yeah it's it Detroit's semi interesting but again i kind of run into the same problem i do with uh baltimore where it's like is carpenter even a headliner, a platoon bat, a really good one. But, yeah. You know, strong side platoon, but yeah.

It's Luke Rayleigh. And also, yeah, he, he doesn't play a position that you're right now, by all accounts, looking to address. Right. And even if he, like, like, Cedric Mollins, for example, he's also an outfielder. Right. But Cedric Mollins is a plus base runner and a plus defensive player. You can play all three outfield spots at a well above average clip.

Carrie Carpenter is. corner outfield only and probably he's a D.H. Yeah. And he's a platoon DH2. So is that enough to headline? Probably not. It's probably a situation where you need co-headliners at which point is Detroit just out. Like, they might not even just want to trade Carrie Carpenter

for him straight out. So yeah, I think a lot of teams are like that. They either they have a headliner either he plays in the outfield, which the Mariners don't really need or he's not a proven player yet. So you kind of feel like you need more there. And Yeah, so that's why I'm a 50-50, but yeah, I think the Castillo odds are probably 50-50.

And in terms of who's the best fit, it's tough to say because like it does seem like the Cubs and the Red Sox were the best fit. But obviously things have changed since we first. Yeah, if the Cubs are out, then it's probably the Red Sox. But the Mariners don't like Casas. I don't see the path to a deal there. Yeah. So I think, again, at this point, it's probably a player that we, we, we've either or it's probably

I mean if the Mets actually want to trade Mark Viantos then that's probably the team. Right. And you do that in a heartbeat, but yeah, they also have like they have McGill who they could give you and they have maybe Peterson like who knows like they might actually be able give you an arm back too. So yeah, but I would still say the Cubs and the Red Sox until we know that they're not in it. And then I think

I think the good old fashioned mystery team is in player And I still think the best way for the Mariners to extract value from Castillo is going to come via three-team trade. But we just kind of have to wait and see. We're going to answer more of your questions here in just a moment. But first a reminder, this episode of the Lockdown Marys podcast is brought to you once again by game time. So I used to live in New Mexico. And down in New Mexico, there are zero pro sports teams. And a lot of bands and artists I listen to skip going there more often than not.

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Terms apply. Again, create an account and redeem promo code L-O-C-D-O-N-M-LB for $20 off. Download game time today. What time is it? Game Time. And you're listening to the Locked-on Marriss podcast. We are wrapping up Mailbag Monday with a couple more of your questions. Kito O'Rourke wants to know, which are the next three seasons.

So 25, 26, and 27 would give you the highest odds of success, or would you give the highest odds of success given current contracts and upcoming prospects. I mean, that order. Really? I mean, because like I'm not going to sit here and pretend like Colt Emerson is going to come up in 2026 and be Julio Rodriguez. Like, for all we know, the prospects aren't any good until 2028 if they're ever any good. You know, and how many of them have to be good?

Like right now you still have, you know, Gilbert and Kirby and cow and. you know like you still have those guys and that might not be true in 26 or 27 so I think in the closer we get to 28 the more likely it is one two or all three of those guys are on a different team and I'm not going to bank on Harry Ford being as good as Cal Raleigh I'm not going to bank on you know whoever Logan Evans to be Logan Gilbert absolutely not there so I feel like yeah 25 is their best shot. 26 is their second best shot. And by 27, you know, I think by 27, one of Gilbert, Kirby, or Cal is definitely gone and maybe two of them. And at that point, like, there's a couple all-stars I have to replace. And I don't trust this team to spend the money to keep them or

replace them. So yeah, I think this is your best shot, unfortunately. And they're, you know, because ownership won't let them. They're not acting like it is. I mean, 23, 24, 25 should have been their go-for-it-a window. And they, you know, screwed around and they lost two of those three years. So I think this is it. You know, after this year, you're going to have to start making some really tough decisions, particularly about Gilbert. And then the next winter after that, it's probably going to be Cal and Kirby.

I mean, at some point, if your ownership is going to pretend their mid-market team, you've got to do the things that mid-market teams do, unfortunately. that is trade guys at their highest value. You get as much as you can out of them to help you. And then when their values at their peak, that's when you trade them and you try and recreate them. And you try and do that and you hope it doesn't blow up in your face. Yeah. Yeah, I feel like the order is as it's laid out.

If you guaranteed me no trades of those guys by 2027, I might say 2027 because you are going to have an influx of a lot. of talent because we're talking about you know cole young and potentially harry for this year uh colt emerson probably at some point in 2026 uh the number three pick whoever that is um you know las possibly uh michael royale possibly like there will be a lot of guys that at least give you options but yeah i mean a couple of these guys are going to get traded So it's probably this year because you know what you have this year And that's what makes this off season so frustrating Yep

Last question of the day comes from Matthew When would you guys move on from someone you don't think you can sign an extension Two three years like Logan has two years like crochet in Chicago Let them play most of the contract in one year like Tucker in Houston Or play it out and have them leave leave as a free agent, offer the QO, and get the draft pick. Depends on the player, but also, like you mentioned, if you are a mid-market team, it would behoove you more than other organizations to try and trade these guys,

get what you can for them, and then try and recreate them, essentially. Right. And like, here's like you trade, Crochet gets traded with two years left, and people think, like, okay, well, if you trade Logan Gilbert, next winter, that's what he's going to be worth, roughly. Maybe, but also Gilbert will at that point, assuming he finishes this year healthy, like Gilbert is going to have, what, at that point, five seasons of track record that says, you know, that he's this good and this is his level, whereas Crochet's had one, right?

So it's one of those things where it's like, it's entirely dependent on the player. I think the earliest I would ever consider trading Logan Gilbert is next winter. but if they want to hold on to them because you're still going to get quite a haul but for one year of Gilbert but you're going to get more at two years of Logan Gilbert and there's a tipping point to me where it's like I don't think what you can

get for three years of Logan Gilbert is going to be significantly more than what you can get by trading two years of Gilbert so keep them and try to get Yeah Well if you're looking at one year of Gilbert it's probably something close to what the brewers got for Corvin Burns which was Joey Ortiz and DL Hall

and didn't they get also a competitive balance pick? I think so, yeah. Yeah. So, yeah. That's not bad, but like if you trade them with two years left, you're probably getting, you know, twice that. So. Yeah.

Yeah. Gilbert is the guy I would trade next winter. If, you know, if I'm, and the other thing, too, here is that like, this is why you should be trying to figure out an extension now, right? You need to start having those talks right now so you know, two years out, one year out, like, hey, how realistic is this? Because if you can sign Gilbert to an extension, that should be your priority. Like far and away, that should be the priority is to get Gilbert signed long term.

If you can't do that, then I think next year, but a guy like Cal, he probably makes more sense to just roll into his free agency and put the QO on him and try and get. Because I don't think you're going to replicate the value that he gives you in a trade. I don't think you're going to find that. So I think, and by the way, Cal probably gets less valuable the closer he gets to free agency because he has more wear and tear on his body. And so I think, you know, Cal I would probably just play out the line with. If I can get him to a team friendly extension, fine.

But I probably just let him walk and slap the QO on him and thank him. And, you know, still try and resign him, but let him test free agency. at Gilbert, I'm probably, Kirby, I'm probably going to do the same thing I do with Gilbert. So it really depends on the player. But I think like just trying to factor in like keeping your window open and maximizing trade returns and all that stuff, I think trading a guy when he has two years left. So the team acquiring him gets two full seasons. I think that is the optimal time to trade most players.

It's going to be fascinating to see how they maneuver this. and we don't even know who's going to be the one pulling the trigger on that. Nope. So, yeah. We'll see. All right. Well, that's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Locktime Marries podcast.

For Colby Pat Node, I'm Tiding, Gazzalus. Be sure give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Marrers. You can follow me at Tiding Azales and Colby at C-Pat-11. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby, and the show at Lockdown Merrors. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.