Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - What a Deadline as SELLERS Could Look Like For the Seattle Mariners

Episode Date: July 15, 2026

Ty and Colby ponder three important questions about the remainder of the Mariners' season, discuss what a selling deadline could look like for Seattle, and more. Colby's "buy and sell" plan Ty's breakdown of what a selling deadline could look like for the Mariners Click to learn more about the Everydayer Club! Join the Ahoy, Sailors Discord server! Check out our Patreon! Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11 Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolby Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! Amazon This Back To School Season, spend less on your kids, with Amazon. With Amazon’s low Back To School Prices, just spend less on your kids. Because every dollar you don’t spend on them, is a dollar you haven’t spent on them.    KALSHI For a limited time, download the Kalshi app and use code LOCKEDON to get ten dollars when you trade ten. Kalshi. Trade on anything. Gametime Today's episode is brought to you by Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase. Terms and conditions apply. FanDuel Today's episode is brought to you by FanDuel. From the opening whistle to the final kick, Let There Be Goals on FanDuel. Visit https://FANDUEL.COM to get started now.   FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Now, unless things get really bad over the next couple weeks, the Mariners are probably not going to sell at the deadline. But if they did, what could it look like? What are their options? We'll discuss coming up. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day.

Ahoy, sailors. It is Wednesday, July 15th, 2026. My name is Tadding Gazzalus, and I'm joined as always by my co-host. Colby Patnode. This episode is brought to you by Calci for a limited time. Download the Calci app and use the promo code locked on. That's L-O-C-K-E-O-N to get $10 when you trade 10. Calci trade on anything. And on today's show, the Marinus have reportedly made it clear in trade talks that they would be willing to trade from their starting rotation in order to land a right-handed bat and bullpen help. How feasible is that really, especially if the pitcher they want to trade,

is Luis Castillo. We'll talk about that, but the bulk of our conversation today will be about what a selling deadline could look like for the Mariners. We'll also discuss what a deadline where they buy and sell could look like as well.

Now, obviously, we've talked a lot about the Mariners from a buying perspective. And in the end, that's probably what they're going to do at the deadline. They are likely going to buy to try and make a run at the playoffs and hopefully beyond.

But look, They're playing incredibly mediocre ball right now. They're 48 and 49. Yes, they're only a game and a half out from first place in the AOS. They are tied for the third and final wild card in the American League. But I think it's worth at least having this conversation at this point, especially if things do indeed go sideways over the next couple weeks. So to get the ball rolling here, I want to ask a series of three questions.

not just to you, Colby, but to our listener here as well. And I'm going to read these verbatim. These are three questions that I laid out in an article that I wrote on my subsec about a week ago. Substack that I don't really use, but I had the itch to write, especially about what a selling deadline could look like. And so I wrote down these three questions. So again, I'm going to read these verbatim. So the first question here is realistically, if the Mariners finish out the season playing roughly

at the same level they are right now, but still make the playoffs in some capacity, which is certainly a possibility here with how weak the division is and how weak the league at large is. What are their odds of making a deep run with both the Yankees and the rays in their way? Not too bad, actually.

Because, you know, as frustrating as it is, if they do make the playoffs, they're still a dangerous team because we're talking about a short season in which anybody can get hot, but also the Mariners have really good starting pitching. And that can carry you in the postseason quite a ways. So, you know, and one other thing to keep in mind here is that the Mariners pitching could be even better, even if they don't make moves because in a shorter playoff series,

you're moving a couple of these starters to the pen. And that's not to factor in the, you know, the Anderson and the Sloan part of it, who could also be factors in the pen. So, yeah, I mean, like, look, if you take Bryce Miller, and Luis Castillo out of the rotation in a, you know, five game series, three game series or whatever, and put them in the bullpen, like you're going to outpitch just about anybody in that scenario. You don't have to worry about the soft underbelly of your bullpen because it's never going to become an issue in a shortened series. So, yeah, it still is something that they could do.

They wouldn't be the favorite in either of those series, certainly, but they can beat both of those teams because they have the pitching to do it. And so, you know, and plus, I'm assuming we also get to factor in Julio coming back, hopefully. And, you know, I guess Donovan, too, will factor that in a little bit here, although, I don't know. But, yeah, like, they could still make a run, even if they squeak in as like a fringe 500 team who has to play. I mean, round one, they're probably playing the White Sox or the Guardians, if they're the six seed like they are right now. okay, I'm not going to pretend like they can't beat those two teams. And then they have to go to whoever wins the East, which right now is Tampa. Like we just saw them in Tampa and we saw what happens when they play well.

You know, their only time in a week that they play well, they can embarrass the race. So it's just kind of one of those things where it's like, you know, look, as frustrating as it is, it's a team as is right now, they made no moves if they could, if they got into the playoffs, having made no moves and they just got a little bit healthier. and everybody's just kind of performing the way that they have. Could they win playoff series? Yeah, yeah, because in order to do that, they would only have to win six games,

or five games, actually, to advance to the ALCS. With this rotation, with this bullpen, and the reinforcements to the bullpen you get from just moving a couple of guys into it who are currently in your rotation or currently in the minor leagues, yeah, they could do it. Again, would they be favored against the Yankees or the race? No, then they shouldn't be. on how they're playing right now, but could they win those series?

Yeah, they could actually. So question two kind of goes hand in hand with question one. Who slash what are they hypothetically adding at the deadline? The mayor's biggest issue is that the players they've hitched their proverbial wagon to are largely underperforming, and overall on the roster midseason is not a viable option. So although acquiring, for example, Taylor Ward and Kevin Ginkle would certainly make the team better, would a deadline of that ilk ultimately make enough of a difference of, say, Cal Raleigh, J.P. Crawford, and Josh Naylor continue to struggle.

Is that worth foregoing the potential long-term benefits of selling, resulting in diminished to loss value of some of their major league pieces? Yes. It is always worth it to make the playoffs. And we need to keep in mind that, like, the Mariners, unfortunately, right now, are in a position where they're making moves to make the playoffs, not to, you know, fortify a playoff roster. Because right now the Mariners are barely in the playoffs as things stand right now.

And if they continue to play the way they have, they're not going to be. So you still have to get to the playoffs before you kind of, before you kind of like wonder about, you know, making moves to win the World Series. You have to get there first. Right now they're barely hanging on. So, you know, it is one of those. things where it's like who are they adding first and foremost right hypothetically uh is there a scenario where the players they add probably aren't worth it yeah i guess but also then now on the

flip side of that is if they sold who are they selling because what are you foregoing if you if you don't sell randy a rosarena and j p crawford right now probably not much so unless we're actually selling like real legitimate controllable pieces it doesn't really make that much sense to kind of, you know, do this the other way. So, yeah, for an organization that's made to playoffs, what, five times in 50 years, it's always worth it to try and, you know, push for the playoffs if you're in a good position. And unfortunately, or fortunately, I should say, the American League is so bad that you are in a good position to actually still make the playoffs, which is sad, but also that's reality.

And we have to accept the reality that's in front of us, not the one that we thought was going to happen. So that perfectly leads into my third and final question here. Could the Mariners sell and still make the playoffs in an incredibly weak ale? Depends on who and how much? I'm not talking about trading just your rentals. Just trading Randy and JP, right? And it depends on who and how much they get for them. They trade Logan Gilbert and the return is mostly comprised of guys that are more so going to impact you in 2027, 2028.

beyond. I think hypothetically you still could. I don't know that it would be worth it, but I think in theory, sure, you probably, I mean, yeah, I think you could. Again, it would hurt certainly, but yeah, especially if you're not getting guys who can impact you in 2027 or sorry, 26. But yeah, I think if you traded one of the starters, you could still make the playoffs, like one of the good starters, the Kirby, Logan. I guess the question ultimately is, can you find a happy medium where you accomplish both things, where you accomplish still being able to compete this year and go to the playoffs, but also take advantage of what is obviously going to be a seller's market. Every trade deadline is a seller's market because that's just the nature of the league nowadays. But like, obviously, if the mayor is sold, I don't think there's a team out there realistically that's going to sell that would have the piece.

that could compete with the level of pieces that the marries would potentially be offering. Like they could really reap the rewards of this market, potentially. Sure. Yeah, like the tigers might have the best piece, but in terms of like totality of pieces that would realistically be available if the mariners did just straight up sell, yeah, nobody could touch what the mariner's have to offer. Maybe the Padres.

Right. Maybe. So obviously like that element of it, is enticing, but still, you know, if you sell, even if you do still have a shot realistically of making the playoffs, even if you do sell, you're still kind of waving the white flag on this season. And for this organization in particular, I don't think that's acceptable. So I think ultimately the answer that we're getting to here, Colby, because I do mostly agree with, with your answers here to all, all three of those questions, is that unless this gets really

really bad, they shouldn't consider selling. So we're going to work from that point coming up here in the next segment. If things get really bad, what would a selling deadline look like for the Mariners? Or if they're still kind of middling, could they buy and sell a little bit? Talk about that in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Marriss podcast is brought to you by Game Time and Nutraful. There's nothing like watching a Mariners game.

Even better when you get to watch it live. The excitement, the fans, the only problem, getting tickets can feel like a grind. I'm talking long queues, surprise fees, and of course, prices jump in at checkout. That's where there's Game Time. The Game Time app gives fans the advantage with constant innovation. It's how you unlock amazing tickets and experiences in just a few taps. It's simple to use. The Game Time guarantee means you get 100% authentic tickets delivered on time at the best price.

and here's the best part. Fees are included in the price you see. So what you see is what you pay, period. The seat views feature is huge. I can see the panoramic view from my exact seat before I buy. In zone deals, let me pick the section and save even more while game time selects the seat. Two taps and it's done. No stress, no hidden fees, just great seats in minutes.

That's what makes it so easy to decide last minute to hit a game. Take the guesswork out of buying MLB tickets with GameTime. Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use the promo code locked on for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Again, create an account and redeem the promo code LOC, KED, ON for $20 off. Download the GameTime app today. Baseball players are known for their routines, whether it's a lucky jersey, a pregame ritual, or sticking to the same preparation every day, consistency matters.

And when it comes to hair thinning, there can be a lot of products out there making promises, but not always a lot of confidence behind them. That's why more people are looking for solutions backed by real science and trusted experts. Nutraful is the number one dermatologist recommended hair growth supplement brand and the official hair growth partner of Major League Baseball. What really makes Nutraful stand out is that it's not a one-size-fits-all approach. It's designed to fit into your routine while addressing the root causes of thinning with personalized solutions. I like that Nutraful acknowledges that everyone's solution is different. Having formulas designed for different stages and needs makes a lot more sense than expecting the same product to work exactly the same for everyone. And when I'm deciding whether to try something new, I want to know there's real research and expertise behind it.

Knowing Nutraful is physician formulated, clinically tested, and NSF certified for sport definitely helps build that confidence. Find out why Nutriful is the only hair growth supplement brand trusted by MLB. For a limited time, Neutroful is a newtriful is. is offering our listeners $10 off your first month subscription and free shipping when you visit Nutraful.com and enter the promo code Locked on MLB. And you're listening to the Locktime Mariners podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Thank you so much for making us to your first listen for all things,

Mariners, and also thank you for making Lockdown the number one sports podcast network. So if things get really bad over the next couple weeks, Colway, you know, Mariners disappointing their, first homestand coming out of the break against two teams that they really need to win against. They really, as we talked about yesterday, they really need to go at least four and two against the Giants and the

Reds coming out of the break. 5-1 would be fantastic. Obviously, 6 and O, sweeping both of those series would be incredible before hitting the road to face the Rangers and the Dodgers. But yeah, those final three series that they're playing

before the trade deadline are massive. Because again, you're playing four against the Rangers who you're chasing in the AL West right now, playing three against the defending champs. And then when you get home, you're playing three against the twins, who you are currently tied with for the third and final wild card and the American League. So that stretch is massive. That is ultimately going to dictate potentially how the rest of the season is ultimately going to go because that could heavily influence what the Mariners do at the deadline. So if that stretch winds up, resulting in disaster here.

The Mariners are essentially left with no other choice but to sell because it just would make no sense whatsoever for them to buy, at least buy anything that wouldn't help them in 2027 and potentially beyond. What would selling look like for the mayor? Obviously, Randy and JP, their rentals. Obviously, you would be looking to trade both of those guys, especially because it doesn't seem like it seems like chances of bringing both of those guys are fairly low randy especially but after that like that's that's kind of like a foregone conclusion actually you know what

let's start here what do you think you could get for randy right now i don't know what you could get for jp it might not be really much but what can you what can you get for randy and especially in this market could you get actually something better than what you traded for josh naler last year for randy maybe a little but not much um yeah like Again, the market is absolutely, there's just no right-handed bats, quality right-handed bats on bad teams that are really out there. I mean, like, again, Taylor Ward is like the best one on a bad team. Who's fine? Brandy's a little bit better.

Certainly can help you more dynamic on the basis, too. So, yeah, maybe a little bit better than Naylor, but I don't think much. And neither was get these mixed up. He was the Brandon Garcia end of that, right? Yeah, that was Garcia and Izzy. Yeah, Izzy, by the way, in AAA, Brandon Garcia having a nice, a nice year in the Diamondbacks bullpen. So they did get to one major league ready bullpen piece who struggled in his cup of coffee. And they did get a, you know, kind of a back end ceiling, you know, rotation piece.

So could the Mariners get a little bit better than that? maybe just because of the market and specifically where the hole in the market is, maybe a little bit more, but I don't think much more than that, if even that, because also, you know, there are teams that just aren't going to want to deal with Randy, but I think most teams would look at it for three months and I'm getting an all-star player who can go 2020 and certainly can get hot and hit a ton of home runs in the second half and blah, blah, blah. I do think, and plus the whole playoff performance.

thing, although it wasn't really the case last year, yada, yada. But, you know, I do think that you can get a little, maybe like five to 10% more. But I don't think you're going to get like a top hundred prospect or anything like that. The next thing that comes up with sellers is open arms, right? Whenever you're selling, believers are the next thing to go after your rentals. So I think Andres Munoz is very clearly the most valuable guy. of the group, especially with how well he's turned his season around as of late. He's still top 10 among all qualified relievers and strikeout percentage.

I believe he's in the 96th percentile on chase rate, 99th percentile on whiff rate right now. But you also have some other interesting club-controlled relievers on top of Munoz. You got Gabe Spire. You got Jose Ferrer. You got Edward Bizarro. Brash, probably not going to be healthy enough in time. for a team to want to trade significant assets for him. We'll see.

I don't know. Maybe. You'd probably be a significant discount if you trade at Brash right now. Yeah. So I'm mostly looking at Munoz Spire-Ferrearro, those four. Now, look, even if you sell at the deadline, this team is going to be looking to retool to go compete in 2027. So how much subtraction is too much subtraction? obviously we're only talking about relievers here but still like you want to put yourself in a good position to go compete next year as well so what would it have to take in order for you to move on from any of these guys or multiple of these guys yeah i mean the tricky part here is that if you're selling obviously there will be other pieces you're selling so it's like i don't want to trade too many relievers but what have i trade randy and i get like a really nice reliever prospect in the deal and blah blah blah so um um

Keep that out of mind. These are all connected together. Yeah. Which makes speaking about them individually difficult. And I would say like Munoz, the comp is probably the Yon-Doron trade from last year, which got, because he has two and a half years left of club control, their cost-controlled years. Duran at the time that he was traded last year, had two and a half years of club control. They're both relatively in the same tier of reliever.

Iran's maybe a little better, but. Yeah. And that got the twins, Eduardo Tate, who's at the time, or is now the number 39 prospect on MLB pipeline, take them from what you will. And then they also got an ML3 ready starting pitcher and Mick Abel.

Yeah. Again, all the trades are connected. I don't think they're going to want an MLB ready starting pitcher, although it's not really a bad thing to have them if you can get them. But yeah, I think you're looking at a, a, you know, top 50-ish prospect, maybe top 75 prospect, and then like a major league ready or a major league seasoned bat, probably an outfielder would be ideal if you're

trading Munoz. So, you know, I do wonder like if Bizarro or Spire might be like sneaky, expensive trade chips because Spire, he had a really bad last week before the break, but before that, he has been one of the best left-handed relievers in baseball in three of the last four seasons. In the one year he was, and he was hurt. So you get him for all next year as well. I think left-handed relievers go for a pretty good amount,

especially when they're elite left-handed relievers. And, you know, again, he's not as good against righty, so he's not, you know, he's not a luggy, but he's not, you know, a guy that you want facing a bunch of Rides in a row. But I do think that maybe he, Bizarro's got a lot of club control left himself. And he's been, you know, again, kind of scary a little bit more this year than he was last year.

But the numbers are the numbers and the results are the results. And he's pretty good at this stage. Ferrer, I think they would be selling kind of low on right now. So I actually don't think that they would be interested in selling for her. I think they still think there's another gear that they can get from him. And if you're trading a couple of these bullpen arms, he's going to probably, I mean, if you're trying Munoz, he's probably the closer. Like that's probably the role that they would put him in.

So, yeah, Munoz, it's close to the Duran deal, which is, you know, top 70, 75-ish prospect, probably top 50 in like a major league ready bat or, you know, a bat that's got, you know, multiple years of club control that has had some major league success. I think that's what you're looking for. For Munoz Spire, you know, it is. it'd be interesting because you could kind of go bulk there and you can kind of get a couple of long-term pieces or you can go like for like one big upside swing probably not a top 100 guy but like somebody close in that range so yeah bizardo tough to say i i don't know he's i really i'm not

sure how the league would value him uh i think the mariners might value him more than everybody else in the league uh and then for rare i just i think he is the least likely guy in this bullpen to be traded I just think they really like him. And they think if they traded him now, they would be selling low on him. So coming up, we'll talk about the starting rotation. There's obviously a rumor about the rotation right now. The Mariners apparently are willing to trade from their rotation, no matter what. That will kind of tie into our conversation about buying and selling.

And we'll just look at it from a selling perspective, pure outright selling perspective as well in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Locktime Mariners podcast is brought to you by Kalshi. Baseball season is here, and now you can trade every game and more on Calci. Right now, Seattle is trading at 17% to win the pennant, meaning a $100 trade pays out $590 if they do it. On Calci, you're trading against peers in a live market, meaning there's no house. And as the probability changes, you can buy in and out of your position. For a limited time, download the Calci app and use the promo code locked on. That's LOC, KD, ON, to get $10 when you trade $10.

K-A-L-S-H-I-K-CAL-Chi. Trade on anything. 18-plus only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves risk. It may not be suitable for all investors. Prices, values, and available markets may differ from those mentioned. For more information, see calci.com slash regulatory. And you're listening to the Locktime Airners Podcasts part of the Locktime Podcast Network,

your team every day. As always, if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, we have a Patreon. It's called Control to Z. and on there we talk mariners, Seahawks, all that good stuff. For more information, go to patreon.com forward slash control the zone, link in the description of this episode. So now as we turn to the starting rotation for the mariners from a selling perspective, which I don't think there is another group on this Mariners roster that stands out like how the rentals

and how the relievers do from a selling standpoint. I guess the question is, and this goes back to some of the other, you know, pieces that we've talked about as well, specifically the bullpen. How much does the fact that the Mariners are going to look to compete again next year? How does that change the calculus of, if at all, of what they would be looking for in a return? Or is it just get the best return possible, stack as many assets as possible, and then eventually use those to help you go compete next year? Yeah, it's... I think it's, I think the, I think they would value the pieces that are closer to 2027 more than they would say like the 19 year old top 20 prospect, blah, blah, blah, blah. Like, again, like they're, I don't, we don't have specifics.

It's not like you're going to get Medea or anything like that. Who's in double A anyway, so that doesn't work. But, you know, I mean, like, I don't think if you told them, hey, you can have a package that's led by this, you know, quality major league reliever, this top 50 prospect who's in AAA and like this role player blah, blah, blah, or you could have a top 20 prospect who's 18 and in low A as the headliner. Like, which one are you going to take? I think they would take the assets that are going to help them in 2027 over the, you know, just the collection of the best possible talent you can get if you trade one of these guys.

So I think they would prioritize 2027 still if they sold one of these pitchers, but without knowing the individual players, it's hard to say. Yeah. And obviously we've talked to you guys at the Erosoff about Logan Gilbert and George Kirby and trading those guys. So if you've heard any of our episodes over the last couple of weeks, you kind of already know the deal with that and where we stand on that. Colby is kind of more so on the side of focusing on George Kirby and trading Kirby

while he still has three bites at the Apple, whereas I'm more like, the clock's kind of running out on Logan Gilbert. what are you going to do with him? Obviously, there's a lockout. How does that potentially impact his trade value, all that stuff? Kai hates waffles, et cetera, et cetera. Exactly, exactly. What about French toast, though?

No one ever talks about French toast. It's top three. Sure. But, yeah, so I don't want to spend too much time on, like, that whole situation and just kind of regurgitate everything that we've said on that front. But obviously, that would be the big one, right, is trading Gilbert. or Kirby or both, probably not both, but it would probably be one or the other,

at least at the deadline. But that's kind of the big one. Like the trade that would get you the most, in theory, would be dealing Gilbert or Kirby. Yeah. And so like, I guess Wu might get you more,

but they're not trading. They're not, I just, or Miller. Yeah. And even Hancock to a certain degree, just because he's club control. He's not making any money.

I think he's separate from this whole conversation. I think Hancock is... To be clear, I don't view him in the same group as Wu and Miller. I think they would view Hancock as like the guy they would most want to trade, aside from Luis. Obviously, Luis is kind of in his own separate category. So even with the club control, I still think that they would view Hancock as the guy that they would like to move if they move any of these guys. Because part of it too is like Hancock at this stage is a bonus. like you were not expecting Emerson Hancock to be a quality mid-rotation starter.

You never planned on it or at least you haven't for the last couple of years. So it feels like you've got some bonus there. But maybe because Hancock's got that much more club control, maybe that makes George Kirby more available because it's like, look, I mean, we know we're going to lose Logan. But if Hancock is this, we don't have, we have its replacement. Like, so maybe we can trade George now and, you know, cash in on that extra year club control. but yeah i i don't think miller and woo are going anywhere uh even if they sold i think kankox

kind of like in a separate tier and then yeah logan the the tricky thing with logan is is the whole relationship with cow and his relationship with the team like the mariners want logan gilbert like like he is the the leader of the pitching staff like he is what a mariner starting pitcher is supposed to be and so for that reason i i think they'd be really hesitant. I think they would risk losing whatever it is to try and make sure they exhaust every avenue of signing him. Whereas George Kirby is

let's say unique. He's a different type of guy. And I think the Mariners are okay losing that. And that's just kind of been my stance on it. But yeah, they trade one of the starters. Like Logan and George are easily the two. would be at the top of their list, I would assume. Yeah. And I mean, like, if you are outright sellers and you don't think that you're going to be

able to get an extension done with Logan. And, you know, when we talked to Joe Doyle a couple weeks ago, he said he didn't think they were, you know, they were all that close on extension talks. So if you don't think that's going to happen, you really need to weigh it because, at that point, again, again, I've gone over this a bunch of times, but like, if you don't trade him this summer, then you

get into a real sticky situation where, you know, you only have about a month to trade him before the lockout happens in December. At that point, I mean, like, I don't even know if it's going to be possible to trade anyone with only a year left of club control

before the lockout because no one knows how many games are going to be playing. And then at that point, once the lockout happens, like, again, like the threat of loss games is very, very real. And so like if Logan Gilbert's, you know, starts go down from his usual 30 to 15 to 20, for example, how much does that impact his trade value? And at that point, is he just worth more on your roster and helping you in 2027 than whatever you could get for him?

But if you are an outright seller, I think you have to heavily consider it. That doesn't mean trade him for whatever you do. can get. No, you're open in the conversation, though. No, but like, I think you really need to consider it, especially if you don't think that this is going to end with you keeping him in Seattle long term. Yeah. So, you know, it's worth noting that the whole thing about them trading from the rotation

stems from Bob Nightingale, who is not the most reliable when it comes to this type of thing. also he did specifically mention the team willing to trade Luis Castillo which yeah we know that yeah we look obviously like I do think there is truth to what Jerry de potto and Justin Hollander have said about the purpose of the six man rotation and the piggyback and wanting to keep all these guys stretched out because you just you don't know when an injury is going to occur I do think there is true to that I am not I don't think that they are necessarily lying about that. I just don't think it's the primary reason because obviously they can't say what I think the primary reason is. They can't publicly say that, which is we want to keep

Louis stretched out so we can trade him because there might actually be value in keeping him stretched out. And there might actually be trade value there because obviously if you send him to the bullpen, no one's going to want to trade for believer Louis Castillo. Right. No. I have that money. Yeah. So obviously like that doesn't surprise me. That report doesn't surprise me at all. But this kind of goes into the conversation about buying and selling at the deadline. Now, if they traded

Luis Castillo and somehow we're able to actually get something that can help them for Castillo, I wouldn't necessarily view that as a selling move or buy and sell move necessarily because like

a location move. Yeah, this isn't necessarily to be or this isn't to be disrespectful to Luis, but I would actually more so kind of view it as a addition by subtraction, not because of anything to do with Luis specifically, just because of the headache this whole thing has caused, potentially get to reallocate some of Luis's money to a position of greater need, all that, right? So I wouldn't necessarily view that as like a buy and sell move necessarily. I wouldn't particularly quantify it as that. However, if they did trade someone else

from the rotation, I would. And I think that goes back to Emerson Hancock specifically. Yeah. I mean, the tricky part there is like, go find me the Emerson Hancock, right? That makes sense for everybody. Right. Who is the, you know, the bat with three years left of club control or the bat equivalent of Emerson Hancock who had really struck, I mean, like Nick Gonzalez. He's kind of of that similar ilk where he's finally come around. And where are you going to bench Cole Young or maybe Cole Deverson, I guess? Like, yeah, I mean, like you're not going to bench J.P. Crawford for Nick Gonzalez. So it's just kind of one of those things you're not going to. They're not going to.

It's just kind of one of those things where it's like you have to find the specific player that fits this specific criteria. And then you have to that team also needs desperately starting. pitching, like, again, this is why coming up with trades is incredibly difficult to come up with trades that work for everybody. And this is why there aren't much, much more of them in Major League Baseball. And there are still way more in Major League Baseball than any other sport. So it's just kind of one of those things where, like, coming up with trade packages is difficult.

If you're trying to thread a needle where you're trying to, you know, sell from your Major League Roster, but not get worse, you know. is very difficult needle to thread. And that's why we don't see a lot of teams do it. Very few teams do this buy and sell thing for obvious reasons because it's extremely difficult to line up with your needs and what you're hoping to accomplish. So yeah, it would be interesting to see what a Hancock swap would be.

But yeah, that one's probably like a, you know, Hancock for the bad equivalent of Emerson Hancock. And that's kind of a like Luis Castillo, that's more of a reallocation. than it is a, you know, buy or sell move. So, yeah, I mean, I don't know. Maybe there's a deeper conversation to what a buy and sell deadline look like. But we are running out of time today.

But, you know, I do think what we talked a lot about in 2023, that deadline, where they traded Paul Seawald, but they actually got a couple of pieces that ended up helping them that year. Yeah. They could do that. also still go out and get this year's Mark Kana and Tommy Bam and like just kind of improve on the fringes that way that might be a way that they could attack this. That's essentially what I wanted to get to here with the buy and sell conversation, which is like, okay, that's fine. You want to trade Gabe Spire, you know, this year's Paul Sebald equivalent or whatever. You want to trade Edward Bizarro or whatever. Fine.

You know, like assuming that you're in a very similar position to how you are now, right? like okay fine I don't think they would actually do that just considering what you know what the rumors have been and all that but like if that's what they wanted to do okay fine do that but this time around unlike in 2023 essentially have the deadline that the royals had last year

right where the royals they went out you know they were willing to sell some pieces but they also went out they got like Randall Gritchick right and they got I forget who else they got but like they added some like Adam Fraser you know, just some complimentary insurance policies. And just in case

our guys get hot and we go on a little bit of a heater. We want that veteran kind of proven backup and role players to kind of improve our chances just in case. You know, something that breaks our way. And so yeah. Yeah, I mean, for the Mariners, that's the Willie Castro

and the Lane Thomas types, guys like that. Yeah. Yeah. So, yeah, I actually wrote a buy slash sell piece on my substand. just the other day. So if you guys are curious what that could in theory look like, I guess you could check out my substack, but keep in mind,

I am, I'm guessing, educated guesses. I love the link to that in the description, by the way. Again, maybe there's a deeper buy cell conversation to have. I could probably do a whole episode with just the buy and the cell conversation,

but I think we'll probably wait for that to have that conversation until it actually makes sense, which would be late July after we see. where it feels like you're just kind of like in this awkward spot. Yeah. Yeah, like they go seven and six over these next 13 games and they're just a 500 club, like, uh,

probably a good time to have that conversation. I again, the next two weeks, the next 13 games very well could determine the entire Mariners season. Like that is how important these next 13 games are. Um, and you get off to, uh,

you know, you get to start those 13 games with six games against two of the worst teams of baseball. If you don't go four and two, you don't win both of those series. Yeah. or at least sweep one of them and, you know, salvage a game and the other. Like, you really have to go forward to.

Yeah. Otherwise, the conversation is going to get much more dreary if you don't. Yeah. The last thing that we need to touch on here, though, going back to the Nightingale report, where he said the barons are willing to trade one of their prize starters for a back-in reliever and right-handed hitter, most likely Luis Castillo. Okay. How feasible is that? Yeah.

Yeah. I mean, like, Cassio is obviously, you know, proven veteran. in pitching a lot of big games. He's been pitching better as of late. That will have some value, but then obviously there's the contract situation of it all. Does I kind of just kind of erase the value that he brings?

I don't know. It just, it feels like a very tight window to fit through here. And I'm not sure if the merits can realistically accomplish getting something that would help them on top of offloading the contract. No, if they want a right-handed bat and a back-in reliever, they're trading Hancock or Kirby or,

like, Luis is not going to get you that. It's not by himself. I mean, maybe is there like a contract swap and then like you trade like Las Montes for that back in reliever too, maybe something like that, but just straight up like Luis is,

is not going to match you two major leaguers to, you know, potentially impact major leaguers. That's just not going to happen. Yeah. I mean, it would have to be something like I saw this, trade get thrown out by a Blue Jays content creator on Twitter the other day.

And I don't know how how feasible this would be even for the Blue Jays. I don't, you know, because again, we've talked about Castillo with the Blue Jays and it's like, they already kind of have a Castio like situation. And his name is Jose Burrios. He's making basically the same amount of money. Castillo is. I mean, at the very least, Castio is available. Holy?

Yeah, and Poreos is not. But still, and obviously the Blue Jays, like this season. and seems lost for them. I mean, almost every team in the American League is still in it technically because of how bad the league is, but like the Blue Jays are in a rough spot right now. So I just,

I really don't know how much Cassio makes sense for them. Obviously, that's a team that would try and compete again next year. So maybe they look at it from that standpoint. But anyway, I'm getting too ahead of myself. The idea here was Jeff Hoffman, the reliever who has been really good this year. Like when you look at the underlying, numbers. There's just, you know, there's been some blown saves and stuff like that and

there's a lot of people in Toronto that just kind of want him out of town. And I'm sure that is some of that is also like the lingering effects of him blowing the save in the World Series and all that. But, uh, but he's making, I think like $11 million this year and then like a $11 million. I think it's actually structured a little bit different. But anyway, he's making a little bit of money. And then, uh, they also had, uh, Lenine Sosa going to the Mariners and that deal who's a right handed bat with some upside he's just been bad this year and hurt but that like maybe that's something like where it's like it's a right-handed bat who's not producing right now but you think might be able to and then a reliever that's making money or vice versa yeah something like that maybe

that's one of the only ways i could see louise actually fetching you those pieces and it's like did they actually get you a right-handed bat or did you get a rhymeless? Right. You know, it's kind of one of those. So, yeah, I mean, again, if they're trading one of their prize starters, I don't consider Luis Castillo to be a prized starter. Yeah. Well, I don't think the Mariners do either.

I think that's Bob's wording, include just kind of the way you worded it. But I do think that they would like to trade Luis, but at least I think they're at least open to the idea, of listening on one of the other five starters in their rotation as well. Yeah. Well, not William Miller, though. No, no.

I think they're willing to listen on George and Logan is what I took from that. And they would prefer to trade Luis Castillo, though. Yeah. And like we've talked about in the past, the Mariners kind of have to trade two starters in the next calendar year. Yeah. To make way for Kate Anderson and Ryan Sloan. And again, if you don't think that you can keep Loeux.

Gilbert long term and Logan could actually help you get a piece back or maybe even two that help you in other areas of your roster. I think you got to entertain that even though that rating Logan Gilbert, even as a contender, would be a weird look to say the least. Yeah. And obviously, I don't think the clubhouse would be too receptive to that, even if the Mariners did get a couple of other pieces that. that would, you know, help them this year. So it's a, yeah, it's a real weird situation, delicate situation. So see how it all plays out. But a lot of stuff, you know, to ponder here, we'll probably talk more about this tomorrow as well.

We still got another show to do before the Mariners are set to play some games again. So we'll probably talk more about this on tomorrow's show. Anyway, that is going to do it for us. Thank you so much for joining us here on the lockdown Mariners podcast. part of the Lockdown podcast network, your team every day for Colby Patnode. I'm Tiding Gazzalas. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners.

You can follow me at Tading Gzalus and Colby at CPAT 11. That's CPAT 1-1. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby, and the show at Lockdown Mariners. You can also find us on Instagram and TikTok at Lockdown Mariner's. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time.

Peace.