Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - What Could a Logan Gilbert Extension With the Mariners Look Like?

Episode Date: March 17, 2025

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What could a Logan Gilbert extension look like? We'll answer that and more coming up here on Mailbag Monday. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. O'hoys, Sailors. It is Monday, March 17th, 2025.

This is Ted and Gazzalus and Colby Patnaud for the Lockdown Mariner's podcast. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. This episode is brought to you by Monarch Money. Take control of your finances with Monarch Money. use the promo code locked on MLB at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. And as always, if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, you can check out our Patreon. All you have to do to check that out is click the link in the description of this episode.

So it is time to open up the mailbag like we do here every Monday and answer some of your merrous questions. Downward Optimus wants to know any thoughts on Miles Master Boni and Ryan Bliss. They seem like the most likely last two guys on the roster plus Routy Telez of Han Starrison, Starr Boni is only with twice the spring, and both of them have generally hit the ball hard consistently.

I don't consider Ryan Bliss to be one of the last guys. I think he's won the second base job. And so that puts Dillamore back into, assuming that that's true, into the role that you would prefer him to be in, which is as the team's primary utility man. And so from that standpoint, you don't need someone like Miles Master Boney

if you don't want him. It really just comes down to how much are the Mariners willing to deploy whichever player fills in that roster spot. Now, if they only plan on using that roster spot once a week, then yeah, throw in Master Boni on there, Samad Taylor, whoever, some player that you don't care if he only gets, you know, maybe two to three played appearances a week, right? But if you plan on using that spot more,

then I would think like Dominic Canzone, Tyler Locklear, Austin Shenton, And someone like that would be a better fit for that spot. Someone with more upside, someone that you'd like to see a bit more at the major league level. The Tellez thing is interesting because like you mentioned, there's a possibility here that Hanager starts the year on the IL. He's got shoulder discomfort going on right now. Maybe this is the writing on the wall of what's going to happen here with Hanager. And maybe the mayors are actually going to choose to move on.

We'll see. but he hasn't been in the lineup the last few days with the shoulder issue. If that lingers into the regular season, then, yeah, I mean, like, as we talked about with TJ and Lyle last week, that's the only way that we could see Rottie Tellez on this roster is if Hanager is not on it. So maybe the lineup that we saw today, you know, minus the Julio subtraction because he's sick, maybe that's the opening day lineup right there with, with Telez is the, as the DH.

So we'll see. That's a really interesting piece to this. But yeah, I think Bliss has won the second base job. Yeah, seems likely. Dan talked the other day about, you know,

they have eight, nine more games to go and it's still an open competition. But Bliss is playing with the regulars more often. He's in the opening day lineup today. I think he's going to win that job. So Dillamore is going to be on the bench. And yeah, I mean, basically if Hanager doesn't get into a game in the next day or two, there's a 0% shot. He's going to be ready for opening day.

He just won't have enough time to get the reps in that he needs to get in and he'll hit the I.O. And if that happens, then I would assume Tiles is also going to make the opening day roster. But that would, so that would leave one roster spot open when Handerer hits the I.L. And we should mention that they have to make a decision on Teles soon here. The first of, I believe, three deadlines that he has over the next two months is coming up on March 23rd for him to potentially opt out of his contract. Right. And the Mariners do have an open spot on their 40 man with the DFA of Seth Martinez. So, yeah, it seems likely they'll probably add him, which point he'll be owed $1.5 million.

So, yeah, he'll probably be the opening day, D.H. or first baseman. We'll see how the Mariners want to deploy him against left-handed pitching. They'll face lefties in both game two and three. So we'll see how much he plays. So yeah, what do you do with that last bench spot? You have Dylan Moore who kind of covers a lot of the holes.

You have Garber and you have Solano on the bench. And all three of those guys are probably going to play game two and game three in some role or whatever. So what do you do with that fourth spot? you know, versatility because you have Dylan Moore, it probably helps. I don't think you want to, I don't think you want to anchor that spot down with another corner infield only type. So I don't really see Austin Shenton making a lot of sense here.

But could somebody, yeah, or Locklear, but could somebody like Master Boney makes sense? He's having a nice spring. You kind of want to, you know, reward him fine. He also runs pretty well. He's a good base runner. I can obviously play multiple spots. So he kind of, you know, get you out of some tight jams. but if you're just looking for like speed and you don't care about, you know, who's, you don't care about like, you know, he's going to play once a week, then Samad Taylor's probably the right guy for this for this spot.

Wouldn't rule out the possibility they trade for somebody, though. Just keep that in the back of your mind. We are getting to the point where guys who are out of options are going to be DFA or traded or they're going to be stuck on a roster. So keep an eye out for that. but I do think that ultimately Master Boney makes a lot of sense here. I don't think it's going to be Canzone. I don't think it's going to be Shenton. I think those guys,

I think the mayors are going to want those guys to play a lot in case they need them later on in the year. So I think those guys are headed to AAA. Same with Locklear. So yeah, I think that last spot is going to be Master Boney, Rivas, or Samad Taylor. And of those three, I really don't have a.

strong preference. But I think to me of those three, it just comes down to what the best tool is. And to me, that's that's Samad's run. Yeah. I mean, do you want a left-handed bat on the bench? Because right now you have three righties and Samad's a righty. And so, you know, Master Boney's a lefty. So is that going to make a big difference?

I don't know. Probably not. If you need a big home run or, you know, you're probably going to Garber. Like he's probably right or left. you're probably hoping that he runs into one. So yeah, we'll see what they do with that last spot. Again, wouldn't roll out a trade, but I do think it's going to be between Miles,

Rivas, and probably somebody like Samad Taylor, because I don't think partners really see, obviously, long-term future with any of those guys. So they're only going to get, you know, 15 at-bats in the first month. They don't really care.

Yeah, yeah. So if they see a much larger role for that roster spot, then I would like to see them take a shot on someone with more upside. but again if that's a you know once maybe twice a week type of role for that roster spot then master bony is fine Samad Taylor would be the preference but Rivas as well you know could also fit yeah I mean maybe they want to carry a third catcher I don't know why they would but like Blake Hunt could be a guy here and then I'll just throw out a name that might be available via trade here

Aggie egg he's out there man I got of options he is yes he He's out of options. He'll probably make that team. I don't think they're just going to give up on him. But as we know, he's not going to play much because he's blocked everywhere in the infield. So keep an eye out on Eggie Rosario. I think that'd be a fun little ad.

And it kind of feels like a mariner type of guy. All right. Next question comes from Deepanky. What player or two are you most curious to see how Dan Wilson handles this year as far as playing time, especially if they are struggling and clearly hurting the team? I mean, the one obvious answer here would be Mitch Hanigar,

but again we'll see what's going on with the shoulder thing and if he's actually going to be a part of this or not. Jorge Polanco is the other obvious answer here. And this is more so like beyond April and May. Like if things are just really not going well for them, like how long are they going to sit by him, specifically at third base? Anyone else come to mind or is it just Polanco and potentially Hanager? Yeah. I think I would say that

ignoring the second part of the question. I'm interested to see how they handle Mitch Garber. How much is he going to play? Is he just going to hit against lefties? Again, I would really like to give him opportunities against righties and lefties, but you're going to bench Rayleigh. You're going to bench Talaz. Tellaz is the obvious answer there, but whatever.

You know, what are you going to do there? So I am interested to see how much he's going to catch, how much is he going to DH. So Garber is an interesting one. on. And then I think, you know, Ryan Bliss, you know, how much of a leash is he going to get to go out there and struggle? And, you know, because Demo, well, he's been awful this spring. I think he's literally one for 30. He is the veteran. You know, you can count on the glove. You know he's going to hit for power. He's going to strike out. He's going to walk. You know who Dillemore is. How many times have we seen Dillamore go one for 30 over a stretch? Probably a lot. Yeah. Probably a lot. I don't have the specifics. And maybe it's not specific. So maybe it's not. specifically one for 30, but still, like he's had these stretches over the six years that he's been here. Right. And then I'll have two weeks where he's like 14 for 34 with four homers and all that. So yeah. So I'm not concerned about it if you're curious about that. Yeah. So yeah, I think Ryan Bliss and

Mitch Garver are the two guys that I'm looking at here. And then obviously Polanco. But Dan's probably a little tied like hands tied with Polanco. Like he is the third baseman. You don't really have a better option on your roster right now. So I really don't think that's much of the decision that he gets to make. I do wear his Garber and Bliss. I do think that he has more control over that decision. So yeah, and then obviously Hanager, if and when he's healthy. You know, we probably already have an answer to that.

They didn't play him at all last year, basically in September. And he hasn't played at all this spring. So it feels like they have their answer there. And Dan doesn't get to decide DFA's. So for me, Palanco and Her, sorry, Garber and Bliss are really interesting guys. Sure. All right. So we are going to answer more of your questions in just a moment.

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Three? four? Well, if we want to assume that this year is like just tacked on, like they're not carrying up his contract for this year. Like he's going to pitch this year on his like $7.5 million, whatever he got in arbitration or well, whatever they agreed to. If you just ignore this year and the extension starts next year,

he has two years of club control left before he's a free agent. And so if you want to buy three years of free agency, you're buying, you're giving him a five-year extension, essentially. Well, I mean, technically three. You know what we're talking about. Yeah, yeah. Five years. Yeah, so we assume he's going to make seven this year. Next year in arbitration, probably 10 to 12, hard to say.

Yeah. In the final year, probably $15 to $18. So probably $30 million, roughly on Logan's side. That's what he's going to ask for for those two arb years. So it'd be five years, $114 million. million, give or take. Now, the Mariners are going to be looking for, not a bargain, but obviously to give him this contract two years before you have to, and to buy, you know, to pay him top of the market

money in his age 31, 32, and 33 season, you're going to have to, like, Logan's got to give something here. So I think 5 and 115 is like the max, the max amount. That's the Robbie Ray contract, right? Right. It's pretty close to the Louise Castillo contract as well. Castillo, of course, one full year closer to free, a year and a half closer to free agency than Logan Gilbert currently is. I think of a guy like Logan Webb, who got a five-year, $90 million extension. And that was only two years ago, I believe. I look at a guy like Pablo Lopez, who also got a very similar extension, although much more team friendly. So, you know, that one's probably not a good comp. But it's. I think Logan Webb is a pretty good comp. So I think if we kind of look at it, Webb, by the way, when he signed his extension was 27, Gilbert will be 28 in early May. So pretty close.

I would say the Mariners would probably want to counter with something like 5 and 100 would be my guess. And so maybe 5 and 90 what Logan Webb got, but you have to adjust for inflation and all that stuff, blah, blah, blah. also. I think the range on a five-year contract would be $90 to $115 million, and then it's just kind of a negotiation about how much, you know, you want to beat Logan Webb's contract and how much does Logan want to be here. And so, you know, the more willing he is to leave in free agency than the cluster he's going to get to the 115. But yeah, I think this settles in pretty nicely in the five years,

100 million to 105, somewhere in that range. would be my guess if it is just a five-year contract. Obviously, if it's six years, seven years, the money goes up. But on a five-year deal, paying for a guy's age 28 through 32 seasons. Yeah, I'd say five and one, 10, $22 million. Gilbert on the open market is worth $28 to $30 million. So the mayors do save some a little bit there. And Logan gets the $100 million secured and in his pocket right away.

with the opportunity, they still hit the market at 32, 33 years old. All right, Max wants to know, two-parter. Do you think they will give Garver DH at bats in the beginning of the year? If not, how often does he play? If he does do well in the DH role,

can you see the Marin is bringing up a third catcher to have them back up Cal while Garv is deaching, their intention in 2024? The answer is yes. Yeah, the answer is yes, they should. Will they? I don't know. They seem hell-in on giving Roddy-Tiles at bats,

So we'll see what they do. I would give Garber opening day. I would give Garver like I talked about. Garber would be my starting DH 15 times in the first 20 games. And then he'd catch two or three times. So, yeah, I would play Garber a lot. I want to see what I have. And Garber's upside is significantly higher than anybody else that's, you know,

you have questions about. So yeah, I would play him. I do think he'll start game two and game three. Again, like I said, they're both against lefty. So he's going to play early anyways, just because. of the matchups that are going to be presented to him. But I would be aggressive with him on righties and lefties. And yeah, if he proves that he's an everyday DH,

like he is close to 2023, Mitch Garber, then they're probably going to want to take catching off his plate, at which point, goodbye, Rowdy, to Les, hello, Blake Hunt. Well, depending on how far into the season we are. Yeah, like it weren't June before they pull that trigger, then maybe Harry Ford at that point, but probably Blake Hunt. John Brown's beard once to know. Would you sign up for Julio duplicating his rookie year performance for the 2025 season?

Also, yes. Or would you be willing to go in with just uncertainty, hoping that he gives you a seven to 10 wins season. He gives you more than that. Because it's like, hey, like how much worse than that can Julio be? About two wins? Maybe two. Could he be more than two wins better than he wasn't his.

rookie year. Yes, he could. Yeah. So I take that shot. Like if you told me right now, like his floor is his rookie year, like that's the year he's like, okay, yeah, that's great. But if you're telling me like, that's his ceiling for 2025, 2025, I'd rather just roll the dice, I think.

But man, if you can if I could just guarantee Julio's going to be a six-win player this year, that's hard to pass up on. Because that would help a lot. He was also a 5.8 win player in his second year. Yeah, less consistent though.

But if we're talking about just a repeat of his rookie year where he was pretty consistent for five months. Tye is just afraid to fail. He was a 148 WRC plus that year. He doesn't want to go for glory. He just wants to just put his little money in his checking account and all that stuff. I think I would be more than fine. 1.2% growth every year. Just kind of little.

284, 345, 509, 148 WRC plus 5.8F4. 28 homers, 25 steals. Yeah, I'll just, I'll just take that. Why are you limiting Julio? Ty hates Julio confirmed. I hate you confirmed. People already knew that. The NCAA tournament is here, and so is the bracket breakdown.

Locked on podcast network and Amazon Fire TV channels are teaming up to deliver NCAA tournament coverage like never before. Watch studio shows featuring former players and Lockdown's local experts. as they guide you through every upset, buzzer beater, and bracket matchup. Stream it all for free on Amazon Fire TV channel. Search Bracket Breakdown to see it all for free. It's your team every day. You're listening to the Lockdown Mariner's podcast.

Got a couple more questions to go over here on Mailbag Monday. David wants to know if you were to make a Mariners fantasy team of current players rostered on the Marys and or former Mariners that got traded away as big leaguers or prospects, what would your rosters look like? I think the easiest way to go about this would be just to, identify the guys that have departed that we would like to be on this roster, which isn't a lot in the grand...

Catele Marte. Yes, Catel Marte. Now, see, again, that one's tough because we're going like all the way. I assume we're talking depoto, like, depoto era only. Just active players who were married. Oh, any active player who was one of the mariner. Yeah, Catel Marte at second base. Gino back at third.

Would you put any, would you put Freddie Peralta over any of the five stars? I was thinking about that. when I was Freddie Peralta or Pablo Lopez or Pablo Lopez yeah I don't think so interesting like maybe Luis like if you tell me Louise definitely over Luis I'm like okay yeah no I get that yeah but it's like can I get both of them into this rotation you want me to throw out Brian Wu because I'm not doing that stuff yeah stuff I'm not throwing out Bryce I mean as much as I don't love George Kirby, like his, his poutiness and all that stuff. I do think he's a better pitcher than Lopez and Peralta.

Peralta and Lopez are really good, though. Yeah. But yeah, I think Cotel Marte at second, Gino at third. I mean. I mean, Chris Taylor over Mitch Hanigar, sure. I mean. Sure, like, sure. I guess, but like, you really sad that you don't have Chris Taylor on your roster right now?

Modern day Chris Taylor no No and that's what we're talking We're talking about modern day Their production in the modern day So no Chris Taylor doesn't count I don't know You want Kendall Graveman Modern day Kendall Graveman

I don't know what he looks like right now I mean he's hurt I think so Yeah yeah So yeah but I think Marte and Gino And then it's like maybe I replace Luis Castillo With like on a very minor I'm just trying to think of all the guys That they've traded away

that are actually like pretty decent to good like on a very minor level Tyson Miller over like one of the relievers that you have. Which one? Like Thornton I guess. Sauce. Yeah.

I'm sure there's somebody we're forgetting. Yeah. There's probably a really obvious one and people are screaming at us right now. Paul Seawald maybe. But like modern day Paul Cee, well he was really bad last year. Yeah.

I mean you'd probably still rather have Seawald than like Bizarro, Thornton. you know, saw. So I guess maybe Seawald. Yeah. I think that's it. Like a Tel-Marté, Gino, and then... Carlo Santana?

No, I'm fine with Rayleigh. Yeah. But over, like, Solano? I'm fine with that decision. Okay. Same with Turner, you know? I don't know if it was necessarily a decision, but yeah, sure. Well, but, you know what I mean?

like I'm fine. Yeah. Especially for the role, I need Solano to play. Yeah, like Turner, I'd rather have Solano. Yeah, I don't think Turner crack. I mean, like I guess technically Turner over Teles. But like, again, yeah, I would say the big ones are Marte, Gino, and then there's some pitching ones that are like, yeah, like you don't put Freddie Peralta in over

Brian Wu because of the track record, fine. but would you trade Brian Wu straight up for Freddie Peralta right now? No. So it's just kind of one of those things where it's like, depends on how you want to, you know, it depends on how you kind of want to word this. But now like, yeah, no, I can't think of anything.

Except for the ones we talked about. Question for you guys down in the comments below. Would you put Pablo Lopez or Freddie Peralto over anyone in this rotation? Specifically, the four homegrown guys. he said maybe louise yeah but I don't know I feel like the hate on Louise has gone a little too far

last question of the day from Michael what do you think about Logan Evans and Emerson Hancock sharing the load of the fifth starter three-ish endings each twice to the order for both of them have them empty their tanks nah I don't want to use the extra roster spot on getting essentially a piggyback starter on the roster

right do Evans or Hancock provide you value on any day but the day that they would, you know, start. Can they help you in other days out of the bullpen? Probably not. Yeah. And so, you know, again, you might say, well, Hancock only helps you once every five days anyways.

It's like, yeah, but the eight guys in the bullpen can help me, you know, two or three times in those five days. So. And I think like the way that those guys would help you. out of the bullpen, Evans or Hancock would be as long relief. And at that point, they're probably throwing two or three innings in a blowout game. And then they're not available to piggyback one another. Yeah, plus the Mariners haven't ever really carried, at least recently, like a true long relief type.

They just usually, it's just if they need like multiple innings, they just go to sauce. They really do try and get guys to only go. I mean, they really don't like the relievers to go sit down and then get back up and go back out there and get more. routes. Typically, once the ending ends, the reliever is done. That's the way it's operated mostly for the mariner. So no, I just get the ball to Evans. He's better than Hancock. Not that that's saying much, but get the ball to him. Just pick a guy and roll with it. And then just, because like what, if you're going to put one of these guys in the bullpen, that means you're sending down Legamina or your DFA

and Bizarro. Like, I'd rather roll with those two guys. they have upside out of the pen. Whereas Evans and Hancock, they tried Evans in the bullpen last year, didn't really work out that well for them. And, you know, you also don't want, what if you get into a situation where, like, Brian Wu hits the I.L. And now, you know, Evans hasn't remained stretched out, right? What if you need Logan Evans to just jump?

Now, what, you're going to use an opener and two, like you're going to try in Detroit Tigers the whole thing for an entire year? like, no, just stick Evans back in double A and call them up when you need them or Hancock. I would prefer they stick Hancock in AA, but I think we all know what's going to happen there. So yeah, I just feels like a bad use of a roster spot to me. Yeah, agreed. All right. That's going to do it for our show.

Thank you so much for joining us here on the lockdown Marrars podcast for Colby Patnode. I'm Tiding Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Marrers. You can follow me at Tiding Azales and Colby. P-Pat 11 that's CPAT 1-1. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby, and the show at Lockdown Marrows.

Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.