Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - What If... the Mariners Sign Marcus Semien?
Episode Date: October 20, 2021It's What If Wednesday on Locked On Mariners as hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode ponder the question: what if the Mariners sign Marcus Semien this offseason? They discuss the fit, statement an...d how to build around Semien.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: lockedonmariners@gmail.comFollow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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On today's episode of Locked-on Mariners,
it's what if Wednesday.
Today we're going to ponder the question,
what if the Mariners do sign Marcus Semi in this offseason?
We'll talk about the fit
and what kind of player the Mariners would be getting,
what kind of statement that would mean for this team overall,
and we'll talk about how to proceed from there if you do get him.
If you like what you hear,
give the show a follow or subscribe,
wherever you listen to this. We'd greatly appreciate it.
So Marcus Simeon, 31-year-old second basements, also played some shortstop, but this year played
147 games at second base for the Toronto Blue Jays.
He was worth 6.6 F4 this year, which was fourth in Major League Baseball tied forth with
or tied for third rather with Bryce Harper and Juan Soto.
He hit a career high at home runs with 45.
He drove 102 runs.
struck out just 20.2% of the time,
9.1% walk rate slash 265, 334, 538,
signed a one-year deal with the Blue Jays.
He'll be getting the qualifying offer from Toronto.
It's more than likely that he is not going to be accepting that.
He's going to be looking for a long-term deal
that is going to pay him a healthy dose of money.
Colby, what would your reaction be
if the Mariners signed Marcus Simeon
And again, this is something that we kind of expect to happen early on.
So let's say that, you know, the World Series ends, maybe a week or two goes by,
and the Mariners kick off the off season in a huge, huge way.
It's huge.
It's, you know, it's acquiring the, you know, again, a great player who, you know,
could still play shortstop if you wanted him to, but he'll settle on second, maybe third even.
But it's huge because not only does it impact your ball club,
Not only doesn't make them significantly better, it energizes your fan base.
And it kind of sends a statement to the rest of the league all in one move.
So it would be tremendous to get that done.
And obviously, you know, probably the most important thing is the quality of player you're getting.
Yeah.
Because, you know, I mean, energizing the fan base is great, but it's already pretty energized right now.
And if you, you know, the best way to energize any fan base, it's just to win.
So you don't have to have a good off or a splashy off season if you win the fan base will be just fine
But this one certainly that that does factor in it it's would be on a smaller scale probably than the Robinson cano
signing which kind of you know woke up a pretty much dead mariner fan base for at least a couple of days and that was a lot of fun but yeah simeon is is is
is one of those guys that you know that news comes across the ticker
probably being broken by Jeff Passon
that
that would certainly be a fun day to be a part of
you know with Mariners fandom
so 131 WRC plus
last year
the thing with Simeon however
though is aside from 2021
and 2019 he's been
average to slightly
below average at the plate
finally figured things out defensively
in 2018
really was when he started to turn things around.
He was known as a big error guy,
had a lot of errors and a lot of that stuff
earlier on in his career,
especially earlier on in his tenure with Oakland.
But he's really come around defensively.
And the last two out of the last three years,
he's been just fantastic at the plate,
MVP caliber type hitter.
So obviously, you know,
it all depends on,
how the rest of the off-season goes.
But if you're adding Semyon to this lineup,
what does that do for your lineup?
And also, you know, where are you hitting him?
Are you hitting him first?
Are you hitting him second, third?
Where would you like to see Simeon in this lineup?
Yeah, Simeon is a guy who you can hit pretty much anywhere you want,
one through nine.
Obviously, you're not going to hit him nine.
But, yeah, the bat itself, it lengthens the lineup.
It pushes guys down further by at least,
one spot.
So, you know, you can push Mitch Hanigar down so he's not hitting second, but he's sitting
third or fourth.
Probably should be hitting fifth.
It pushes Thai France down or maybe JP Crawford down.
So it just lengthens the lineup and makes it better from top to bottom.
As for where I would hit him, it's for me, it's lead off.
I think not enough people understand the value of the leadoff.
off hitter as more than a, you know, slaps the ball around.
He's the guy who leads off the game and that's his importance.
And it's not.
It's the lead off spot is the guy who gets the most at bats.
You know, over the course of a season, it could be 50 to 75 extra at bats.
And to me, I want my best guy to get those extra chances to win games.
And so I would hit Semyon first because I believe he's my best hitter.
You get him second and still be okay there.
if you have a strong leadoff guy.
I really don't think Seattle does at the moment.
So I would hit him lead off.
And he has some of those qualities that a, you know,
a typical leadoff hitter would have.
Like he stole 15 bases this year in 16 attempts.
He walks a lot, gets on base.
You know, he walked a double digit,
at a double digit clip in 2020 and 2019.
So he's going to get on base and he's going to be a threat on the base pass as well.
Good base runner.
he had a 4.0 BSR this uh last year or sorry in 2021 and uh yeah he's just a damn good overall
player um and the reason that we've kind of zeroed in on him for this whole episode it's because
we've heard rumblings of mariners being very very interested in marcus simeon we've heard that
he might be their top target heading into the off season so this is a very real possibility
ultimately it comes down to you know if the blue jays are going to be able to
to resign him.
Like, do you think there are going, like, obviously there are going to be other teams that are interested,
but do you think there's another threat other than the Blue Jays to the Mariners that stands out to you?
Maybe a team like the San Francisco Giants.
Simeon is from the Bay Area, and you play with Oakland, and there's some thought that maybe he wants to go back to that area, that California.
And the Giants certainly are a team that's willing to spend money.
and you know they don't they they don't need a shortstop but they could use a second baseman and we'll see because I think they're going to try hard to sign Bryant as well so would they be willing to double dip on those two guys I don't know but they're coming off a 107 win season and they're going to regress I mean there's there's really no doubt about that so they're also going to have to sign Kevin Gossman potentially you know there there's they want to Alex Wood they're going to Anthony Deskney Anthony Desk yeah
So, yeah, they've given Crawford an extension already too.
So it's one, it's, it could be, it's not going to be Oakland.
Okay.
San Francisco.
Yeah.
I can see the Dodgers being involved here, like sneak, like maybe they let Seeger walk.
And then they just signed Simeon to play second base and Trey Turner plays shortstop.
I could see, I could see the Dodgers getting in this.
Of course, the Dodgers can be involved in on anybody.
So you kind of have to throw them in.
But yeah, I feel like to me it's it's going to be Toronto, Seattle, San Francisco, or the Dodgers.
I think it's going to be one of those four.
You know, if I'm handicapping it, I probably say Toronto is still probably the most likely landing spot for him.
But I think Seattle's right there, you know, if not at the, you know, the top of the list after Toronto, it's in the top three or four.
So they definitely have a shot to grab him.
All right.
Well, we're going to talk more about Simeon and what this would mean for this ball club for the city of Seattle, you know, for this organization to make this kind of statement.
We'll talk about the contract and all those things in just a moment.
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available on all platforms. So Colby, what do you think Marcus Simeon is going to get on this market
coming off of a career year? Yeah, it's tough to say.
a little bit older,
but he's been an incredibly durable player.
He's only missed 10 games in the last four years combined.
He,
like he said,
he's a plus defender at second,
who's pretty good at shortstop, too,
if you need him there.
So,
yeah,
he's going to be 31.
Like you said,
he's coming off of a career year.
Well,
he might have been a little better in 2019,
but crew high and home runs and all that stuff.
So at 31, it's tough to see him getting more than five years.
So I think he's going to get somewhere between four to five years and, you know, probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 23 to 28 AAV.
So, yeah, I think four at like 110 or five at, you know, 140 is probably where he made.
max is out. Yeah, that sounds about right now. You know, Jerry DePoto hasn't really given out a contract like
that since he joined the Seattle Mariners as general manager, obviously dating back to his angel's days,
he did hand out some pretty heavy, hefty contracts. It's kind of more of an Arty Moreno thing,
but, you know, now he he has money to play with in Seattle for the first time, really, at least presumably.
he said that ownership has given them the okay to upgrade the payroll pretty significantly this offseason.
So, you know, what would you put the likelihood at them, you know, at Jerry DePoto and John Stanton, you know, being willing to give out a contract like that to one individual player this off season?
I think it's nothing's ever likely when we talk about players and contracts and all that stuff.
It's always more likely that, you know, something else happens.
But I think it's reasonably high considering the circumstances here.
DePoto has, you know, made it pretty clear.
He doesn't like giving out those big mega contracts.
He was not the guy who signed Pujol.
That was his owner.
His owner actually negotiated the contract with, I believe it was Scott Boris and told
DePoto, oh, by the way, we signed this guy.
So Jerry wasn't even really involved in that.
Yeah.
But I think there's a few differences here.
Number one, you know,
Simeon is still athletic and he still can play up the middle,
whereas somebody like Pujols was a corner guy who was declining quickly.
And I don't think that he's going to,
I don't like Simeon's going to get 10 years.
And I don't really see Jerry ever giving any player a 10 year contract.
So, you know, it's one of those things like when we talk about,
oh, well, why not just go sign Kare?
And it's like, well, do you want to give Kray a nine years?
$300 million?
$330 million
because that's probably what he's going to get.
And I don't think Jerry's going to want to do that.
I think he's going to want to remain fairly flexible.
So a shorter deal for Simeon,
three, four, five years,
I think is something that he would be willing to do.
And because their payroll is in such great shape right now,
I think that,
I mean,
they don't even really have a lot of guys that they have to sign,
you know,
to arbitration coming up.
It's a very young team.
So I think, yeah,
think the likelihood is reasonable that they would give out a big contract,
but I don't think they'll give out anything that we would consider a mega contract.
Right, right.
And that's what makes Semyon so appealing to me is that he's not going to command that at 31 years old.
I just, I don't see him getting a mega deal, a 10-year deal.
I see him getting five, like we talked about earlier, you know, that 5-140, you know, 4-110, etc.
I think that's going to be that range for him.
And that makes a ton of sense for him,
especially, you know,
I just,
I don't feel super comfortable giving a Carlos Carraya 10 years,
nine years,
eight years,
whatever it may be,
even though Craya is a great player.
You know,
Simian was better this year, though.
So you might be getting a better player for less years,
obviously a little bit older,
but one that fits a,
you know,
directly fits a position of need,
second base.
It's pretty clear.
and is going to, you know, has played at an MVP level in two of the last three seasons and just seems to be getting better and better.
The power that he's been able to add, you know, in 2019 and in 2021 has been, you know, really impressive.
You know, he's slugging at an incredible rate, 522 in 2019.
That was his first time over a 500 slugging percentage, 538 this year, you know, and you add the,
the defense, which is great and it has been playing up really well at second base.
And then, you know, all the stuff that he can do on the base pass as well.
He's just an all-around fantastic player.
You want to add that guy if possible.
And it seems like they've they've keyed in on him and we'll see how it goes.
But it seems, you know, the indication so far has been that he's probably going to make this decision pretty quick.
And it seems like he's probably going to, you know, make a decision here before.
the CBA expires on December 1st, you know, and all that stuff happens that might may or may not impact the off season, but, you know, a lot of guys might follow suit.
You know, would you be surprised if Simeon is still on the market come December?
No.
I just, I don't know how the market is going to react without the CBA, which expires on December 1st.
So I don't know how teams are going to act.
I don't know how agents are going to act.
I don't know if they're going to want to wait for the new CBA
or if they're going to try and get things done or under the old CBA.
It's just it's so hard to know what's going to happen here that literally nothing
in regards to how fast the free agent market moves is going to surprise me.
It's just, I mean, how could it?
We have no idea what's happening behind the scenes.
It doesn't sound like they're close to a new CBA,
but for all we know, they're finalizing it, you know, next week.
So it just, no, nothing.
would surprise me in terms of the schedule
of when guys sign, but
I feel like if any of these guys
are going to sign pretty quick, any of the short stops,
it's probably going to be simian.
Yeah, it just seems
like he's the likelihoodest to make a decision
because it just, it doesn't seem
like he's going to entertain a lot of
different teams. It seems like it's going to be pretty
condensed to about four or five,
you know, probably the teams
that you mentioned earlier with, you know, the Dodgers,
the Giants, the Mariners, the Blue Jays.
And it still seems
like that the
likeliest outcome here is that he just
resigns in Toronto.
They obviously have a great team in place
and you know,
they probably could have done some damage
had they gotten into the postseason here.
So, you know,
that team is pretty close and,
you know,
it's pretty clear that they're probably a lot closer
to a championship than the Mariners.
So that's probably going to, you know,
be taken into account here,
but also there's the giants that have great building blocks.
And of course,
the Dodgers,
are the most talented team in baseball very clearly.
So a lot of stiff competition here.
Do you think the Mariners are going to have to overpay,
or not really overpay,
but how much more do you think they're going to have to give Simeon
to convince him to come to Seattle?
Do you think it's a money thing at that point?
We talked about in the past.
I don't remember if it was on this show or on control the zone,
but we've talked about how taxes work.
In the state of Washington, there is no state income tax, whereas in Toronto, Ottawa, right, Ottawa?
Ontario.
Ottawa is a city in Ontario.
Okay.
Well, I was educated in America.
We don't learn about other countries.
So, yeah, so they're quite high.
So in terms of like real, real money, real dollars, take home money.
for Simeon. It's actually the Blue Jays who would have to overpay by quite a bit to match the Mariners if they had offered like 25 million. We did the math. I don't remember what it was. But it was a lot. So yeah, yeah, I think maybe they might have to overpay a little bit here. And that might come and giving him an extra year. So like, hey, he's willing to sign with the Blue Jays for four at 110. But he says he'll sign with you right now. You give them five at, you know, 125 or whatever. Well,
then you probably just do that.
You probably just, you know, swallow it and be happy that you got this great player.
So might they have to overpay?
Yes, but I don't think they're going to have to overpay by, you know, $70 million like they reportedly did with Robinson Canoe.
Yeah, you don't think that they're going to exceed 30 million AV here, right?
With them?
Unless it's like a three-year contract, I don't see it.
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, that just.
I feel at that point maybe it's too much
because that's going to limit what you can do
with the rest of the way.
And that's what we're going to talk about
in our next segment.
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All right, Colby, since this is what if Wednesday, say the Mariners do sign Marcus Simeon,
where do you go from there?
You got your star player now.
What do you do the rest of the way?
Do you shoot for the stars?
like what
what else are you like
does this change the
the way that you plan the rest of your off season
especially if you know say you do sign him
in mid-November or whatever it may be
early on in the off season before the winter meetings
how does this change your plan of attack if at all
you kind of has to
which is part of the reason why I think the Mariners want to get this done
early is they want to know how the rest of their offseason needs to look.
So if they can get Simeon done early, well, then they can not necessarily go easier on the other
bats, but there's less pressure to secure, you know, to pay the extra $5 million to get
player Y over player Z, you know, because Simeon should cover a lot of that, that ground
that you would need to make up.
So it does change things.
I don't think Seattle's going to go out and sign two big players.
Like, I don't think they're going to go get Simeon and Bryant, right?
I mean, it'd be cool if they did, but it just, it's not realistic.
So I don't think, I really don't think they're going to go get, you know,
Simeon and Story or Baez or whatever, right?
So I think you secure, if you secure Simeon, then what you're looking to do is you're looking to patch holes.
Okay, so there's our second baseman.
What do we do at third base?
Are we going to trust Toro there?
Are we going to go get a better?
or in like Eduardo Escobar or are we going to go maybe trade for a guy who's making some money but
not a lot of money so that we still have some flexibility to add to the pitching.
Do we now need a left-handed bat because we replace Seeger with a right-handed bat?
Do we need a left-handed hitting outfielder or left-handed hitting catcher?
I mean, so yeah, I think, you know, every move that's made is a card dealt in a hand of
blackjack.
your odds change every single time.
A card gets dealt.
So when you sign Simeon, that's a really good card.
I mean, that's a really good card to your advantage.
But you still have to go out and you still have to make the proper moves for that to make sense.
Because signing Simeon and saying done, you're going to win 80 games next year.
It's the reality of the situation.
So you have to make moves.
But again, what this does do is it says, okay, we have our star.
We have our All-Star.
now let's go make you know maybe some would say marginal upgrades around the offense and let's let's call it good
so let's go get you know edwardo escobar to play third toro's now the utility guy so we just
upgraded third base and utility um and second base and let's go get a catcher and call that good well
there's your three bats and one of them is a true impact bat and the other two are about average
maybe slightly above.
Now you can go focus on pitching.
So yes,
it does change because,
you know,
every single move
changes the calculus
of your off season.
So,
yeah,
it has to.
Now,
there's a thing that they could do here,
though you and I have kind of
joked about,
or at least I've,
I've joked about with you
for the most part,
where,
you know,
you do have the resources
to accomplish this.
You would pay Marcus Simeon.
and then go use
your prospect capital
to go trade for another MVP caliber bat
in Jose Ramirez,
who's only making $12 million this year.
Would you go for that?
Would you try to hit a home run there with that?
Or do you want to save those resources
to go out and get yourself some pitching?
I mean,
I would prefer the pitcher,
but I mean,
who's the pitcher that's available
that is as good or helps your team as much as Jose Ramirez would,
doesn't exist.
He's not available.
So,
I mean,
it would be great if Sandy Alcontra was available,
but he's not going to be.
So,
you know,
that's pretty much it.
You're not going to get Max Scherzer for $12 million
like you would Jose Ramirez.
So,
yeah,
so obviously,
you know,
if they do that great,
I don't think they would,
but hey,
you know what?
I'm not going to complain.
I mean,
how could you?
They just,
They added a couple, you know, five to seven win players.
And they're going to do it at like $40 million salary.
So they should still have enough to go out and continue to add.
So yeah, one thing I just, I don't want them to do is I don't want them to block themselves in by acquiring like two bigger name players and then saying done.
Like they give Simeon 30.
Right.
And then they're like, okay, let's go give Chris Bryant 28 now.
And it's like, well, I mean, cool.
but you know your outfield still needs work you still need pitching you still need a catcher
and now you have i don't know 15 million dollars to get that all done like like that's just a guess
and he's still got to add pitching yeah and it's just like there's an issue there so we don't
know how much salary they're going to add uh this winter but i mean i think we've we've speculated
that it'll be somewhere between they'll probably their opening day payroll will probably be
in that 110 to 130 range somewhere in there.
So you run out of money pretty quick if you go sign these two mega contract guys.
So that's the only thing I would like them to avoid.
Yeah, I just, it's interesting because, you know, if it becomes known that Cleveland is indeed
shopping Jose Ramirez, which is still pretty much up in the air.
But if you're able to get Simeon early on before the Ramirez market really, you know, starts
to heat up there.
I mean, you got to at least throw your hat in the ring on that because if you can add two MVP caliber bats for just 40 million-ish dollars and some prospects, which, again, like the, you know, we've talked about the Jose Ramirez trade a lot on here.
It's going to hurt from a prospect return standpoint.
But the return on that is just, it's so worth it.
Because, you know, again, you're adding potentially, you know, 12 to 14 wins with just two guys and, and doing it without having to spend an exuberant amount of money.
It's, it's a, it's a situation that it seems, you know, super unrealistic.
But when you look at the resources that the Mariners have, you know, it's, if you squint a little bit, it, it makes sense.
know it's not like it's not this pipe dream where it's like okay let's go trade you know for mike trout
and go get bryce harper and blah blah blah blah blah you know it's not one of those deals it's like
like there is a clear pathway where like this could happen it's a very small chance but like
this makes sense this makes sense and again if you're not going to be able to go out and get
legitimate rotation changing pitching which doesn't seem to be the case like you know honestly
the you know because they're not going to be in on the shers they're they're probably not going to give
you know they're not going to pay for a career year of uh of robbie ray they're not going to pay
you know carlos for don a ton of money after his career year they're not going to you know
they're probably going to avoid kevin gossman so you're looking at potentially adding marcus
stroman as your best pitcher this off season you know because it's not going to be al contra in the trade
market i mean jack flerity is maybe available but
But he doesn't, I mean, there's some pretty severe injury concerns there.
You know, who else do you go after in the pitching market?
You know, you don't want to overpay for Hermann Marquez,
because the Rockies are probably going to ask for a ton for Marquez.
Did I say the Rockies or the Yankees?
I'm going to say the Rockies if I said the Yankees.
Anyway, okay.
But yeah, like, you know, Luis Castillo, maybe.
I don't know.
but the reds are, I don't, I don't know if the reds are selling or not.
So, you know, you're not going to get, you're not going to get an ace this off season.
And that's pretty clear.
Like, you're not going to get that guy.
So why not use your resources and get two MVP caliber bats?
And obviously, that's a lot easier said than done.
But it's not out of the realm of possibility.
So if you get Semyon, honestly, me personally, if I'm Jerry Depoto, I'm turning all of my,
attention on getting Jose Ramirez because I think that's that's that's a that's a game
changing move right there like that's a like you're you're you're you're knocking on the
door of the Astros at that point and saying what's up you know you're a legitimate
divisional threat at that point and you know and then you still have money to to
use to to add elsewhere to still add some quality pitching to you
fill out the rest of your you know hopefully you add some you know maybe a bench piece
you know maybe you get a right fielder to pair with with Mitch Hanager or center fielder
you know whatever it's going to be and obviously there might be some holes if you have to
trade major league talent for Ramirez but yeah that's uh that's certainly uh something to dream
about here and that's you know the whole point of what of Wednesday is to dream a little bit
here and uh just talk about the what ifs of course uh
Before we hop off here, Colby, anything you want to add?
Nothing we haven't really discussed.
You know, it's one of those things where, yes,
the Mariners can have a good offseason if they don't land Simeon.
So, you know, it's, and by the way, guys,
I don't want to beat Debbie down here,
but the overwhelming odds are that Seattle won't land Marcus Simeon.
It's, you know, the overwhelming odds are that Seattle won't land any individual player.
if you guys send us a player and you're like,
hey,
will the Mariners add this guy?
Probably no,
but could they?
Yeah,
of course they could.
But the answer is probably no.
That's the way it works.
So if you're trying to like,
is it Seattle or the field,
you would always bet on the field.
So just keep that in mind.
There are plenty of ways for Seattle to have a good offseason
that don't involve them,
you know,
acquiring Marcus Simeon.
And those are also the ways that are probably most likely to happen.
So I'll be rooting for it.
I'll be watching for it.
And hopefully Simeon signs with the Mariners, that would be incredible.
But, you know, just got to be prepared for the, for the possibility or maybe even the probability that Marcus Simeon is playing for Toronto or San Francisco or Los Angeles next year.
And you have to pivot and you have to go on to plan B.
Yep.
But it's always fun to think about, always fun to dream about.
And Colby, you and I have talked at nauseam about how.
You know, we've gone over all these names and all these potential free agents and trade targets and all the stuff that they could possibly do.
And somehow, Jerry Depoto is still going to find a way to surprise us and come up with a, you know, and acquire a player that you and I hadn't even thought of because that's just what he does.
That's just what the Mariners do.
And usually most of the time, they're right.
So I'll put my faith in whatever Jerry Depoto ends up doing this off season.
Should be a lot of fun.
But that's going to do it for today's episode of Lockdown Mariners.
Thank you so much for joining us here.
For Colby Pat node, I'm Ty Dane Gonzalez.
Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners.
You can follow me at Dan Gonzalez.
It's D-A-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at CPAT 11.
That's C-P-A-T-1-1.
You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode.
Thank you again for making Lockdown Mariners your first listen of the day every day.
Now make your second listen of the day, Lockdown MLB for Paul Francis Sullivan,
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So have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you tomorrow.
