Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - What Is the Mariners' Ceiling in 2025?

Episode Date: February 3, 2025

It's Mailbag Monday! What is the Mariners' ceiling in 2025 as currently constructed? Are there still moves to be made despite reports Seattle's roster is set? Ty and Colby answer that and more.Check out our Patreon!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolbySupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONMLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime.FanDuelSuper Bowl 59 is here, And there’s no better way to make every play more exciting than with FanDuel Sportsbook. New customers can bet just FIVE DOLLARS, and if you win, you’ll score TWO HUNDRED BUCKS in Bonus Bets. Download the app or head to FANDUEL.COM to get started.  Bet with FanDuel—Official Partner of Super Bowl Fifty-Nine. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

After signing Jorge Polanco, the mayor's roster is reportedly said. If that's the case, what is this team ceiling? We'll answer to that and more coming up here on Mailbag Monday. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors.

It is Monday, February 3rd, 2025. This is Tudding Azales and Colby Patnode for the Lockdown Marins podcast. part of the Lockdown podcast network, your team every day. We'll be opening up the mailbag like we do here every Monday and answer some of your Mariners questions. But before we do that, quick shout out to our title sponsor today. FanDuel, Super Bowl 59 is here. And there's no better way to make every play more exciting than with FanDwell Sportsbook.

New customers can bet just $5. And if you win, you'll score 200 bucks in bonus bets. Download the app or head to FanDwell.com to get started. And if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, check out a Patreon. All you have to do to check that out is click the link in the description of this episode. Kicking us off here on Mailbag Monday is Blake who wants to know with the mayor is reportedly being done making moves. What's one player not currently on the major league roster that you think will have an impact on the team this upcoming season? I think the obvious answer here is Cole Young.

I mean, I'm assuming we're talking about guys in the organization right now who aren't supposed to be on the opening day roster or at the very least are fighting pretty serious uphill battles to make the opening day roster. So I think Cole Young is the obvious one here. You know, I think unfortunately, if the Mariners are indeed done, they've kind of built this thing where it's like it's not impossible, I suppose, for Young to make the opening day roster, unfortunately, which is not. not how you should build this thing at all. We've talked about this a lot, blah, blah, blah. But yeah, I mean, like Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss aren't exactly hardy competition to stick in front of Cole Young to be the everyday second baseman. So maybe he makes the club out of, you know, spring training, although I think you'd have to be like arguably one of the best players in camp for that to even be a conversation. You'd have to have like a Julio level camp.

Right. It's not necessarily about the numbers, but I do think he would actually have. have to perform a little bit too and put up some pretty good numbers. You know, like he would have to leave, he would have to leave quite the impression. Like the like the same way that Julio did a couple years ago. Right.

And also they'd have to, I mean, even then like you could just leave them down for a couple weeks, service time them. And like, that's totally legitimate. Like you can, you can make the argument that that's the best thing to do anyways.

So yeah, it's one of those things where I think young is the obvious answer here. There are a couple more guys that makes them, sense. I know Ty's got one. But yeah, Cole Young is the super obvious answer. He could be your everyday second baseman. I mean, I suppose theoretically, he could be your opening day second basement, but more than likely we're talking about, I don't know, late May, early June at the earliest.

But, you know, hopefully it's because he's just too good to ignore and not the Mariners' second basement are struggling so much that they have to take a shot on Cole Young. Yeah, the answer is obviously Cole Young because he has the easiest, most feasible path to being an everyday player and being an impactful everyday player for the merits in 2025. But I'll throw out an alternative just to give you a different answer. I'll throw out of Brandon Garcia, who's probably not going to make the team out of camp. I think he'll have a legitimate shot to do so out of the bullpen, not as a starter.

And I think the stuff will play up pretty well out of the bullpen. And I think this team is at some point over the course of the season going to be looking for another high leverage option. I think Garcia has the upside to potentially be that. I'm not sure if he'll actually be that guy, but I think he does have the potential to get there. And I just think that he offers a bit more upside than someone like Taylor Sosato or Gabe Spire or any other lefty that the mayor has have in their organization right now.

Another name of author out there just because he's not written in Penn on the 26-man roster, but does have a shot of making the roster out of camp, Austin Shetton. he had a pretty good cup of coffee at the big league level maybe he's a late bloomer and he'll actually give you something with the bat next question coming from aaron can't imagine an off season where trader jerry doesn't pull off at least one trade for a starting player who's your prediction for most likely trade target who will be starting opening day is a bit weird that the only trades of the maris have made have been essentially waiver claims this off season we had another one today just cash for a guy that was recently DFA'd. So yeah, this is an interesting question. Like who's the most likely starter that the Mariners could acquire before opening day? I don't think that's likely, although I do think that early season trades and spring training trades are going to start

to become a little more relevant in our game. We actually have a question about that later on. Yeah, I don't think it's going to be anything too crazy. again, if you're telling me that the mayors are going to acquire a starter, like somebody who will be in their opening day lineup, you know, between now and opening day,

who's the most likely guy that would be? I mean, Nico Horner, I guess. Like, I don't even know about that. I just like, I mean,

it probably, it's a bullpen arm, but I think you're asking for like a starting nine type of guy. Probably be a second baseman. And Horner is the guy. We know they like, the most, but, you know, unless they signed Bregman and the mayors can find a way to clear some money, even that seems unlikely. So I'm not really sure, you know, the answer here, because Brandon

Lowe would certainly be high on that list. But again, unless they clear the money. So, yeah, I don't know there is a... I mean, can Jose Iglesias fall in their lap for three to four million dollars? Because that's probably all they have to spend at this point. Yeah. And they talked about wanting to save that for whatever. Yes, by the way. So, yeah, I mean,

like now, because you specifically ask for a trade, not a free agent. You know, it's probably Lough or Horner and neither of those guys are that likely. Maybe a Willie Castro, but again, the money thing.

Yeah. Again, all these guys that are you're mentioning are making more money than what we think the front office has left to spend. Right. So like I just don't think it's all that likely that they're going to add anybody via trade that would automatically be in their starting nine just, you know, because of their track record. It's possible they make maybe like a prospect for prospect swap or there's a pre-arb like guy who didn't have like, I don't know. Like you talk about Richie Palacios. Like maybe there's some kind of weird trade there. And he works. Yeah. Are they able to get Palacios? Are they able to get like Jonah Bride or someone like that? not making any money maybe but right that's unlikely at this stage so yeah i'm not sure there is somebody likely to be in the starting like lineup on opening day that you can go get uh right now

in the trade market um so yeah like pretty much any reliever that you can think of that's not making a lot of money is probably the answer uh like an anthony bender uh but yeah this year is Gregory Santos essentially right yeah and i don't think that guy is Like that type of player is the spirit of the question. Is that's who you're looking for is, is, you know, Andrew Nardi. So,

yeah, I just don't see it. Yeah, just in the spirit of the question. I think the answer is no one. Yeah, unfortunately. All right.

Well, we are going to answer more of your questions here in just a moment. But first, a reminder, this episode of the Locked-on-Ares podcast is once again brought to you by Fandul. All right, folks, Super Bowl 59 is here.

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We got this one from Valik, who wants to know simply, what is? the ceiling of this current team in your opinion. So if this roster is set as Adam Jude reported on what Friday, what do you think the ceiling is for this roster, Colby?

Well, sealing is obviously the key term here. As it's set right now, the ceiling, 90 to 95 wins, I think is probably a ceiling. Because again, we're talking about Julio, you know, sustaining success for an entire year.

We're talking about Robles repeating what he did last year. You're talking about a full year of a Rose Arena who's hopefully a little better than he was last year. Everybody stays healthy, you know, blah, blah, blah. So I think the absolute best case scenario. Yeah, for every individual player. Right. If that happens, and I guess probably like the 100th percentile for every single player, probably 100 wins. But that's true of most teams, like a lot of teams.

Yeah. So I think you're looking at like the 90th, 80th to 90th percentile for most guys. I think they could probably win, you know, between 90 and 95 games as it sits right now. And obviously, you know, they could add in season and guys could pop who were not even counting on the 26th man right now. But yeah, I feel like their absolute upside is, you know, like 95 wins. But again, that's the upside play. Right. Yeah.

I think maybe what you're looking for is more so like, what do we think, like, realistically this team winds up if things go pretty well. Like you get reasonable health. You get reasonable like. Yeah. You know, but like slightly. Victor Rubles regresses, but he's still pretty good. Julio sustains more, but maybe he's not an MVP candidate.

Maybe six and a half one player. Yeah. And Cal kind of does what he does and the pitching's healthy. yeah of all that happens I think about 90 like I still think it's a pretty good team which again as we talked about is why it's so frustrating

that they seem to be done adding to this team because it's a really good team right now and it could be great with just a little bit more commitment so yeah I think if all that happens I could still see 90 yeah I think there's like an 88 to 90 win team under those circumstances right now how i feel about this team in general i think this is probably an 84 to 86 win team like a wild card contender and if the

a ls underperforms like it did this past year then probably a division contender as well even in that range yeah i i think you know for me it's always about like ranges and my range is always like plus or minus eight games so like if i say they're an 85 win team you know then basically what i'm is I could see them win anywhere between 77 and like 93 games, depending on health and rebounding and, you know, all that breakout and stuff like that. So the floor should be higher and they could absolutely still make it higher. But based on what we know right now,

they're choosing not to for reasons. Nate wants to know with 7.75 million of the Mariners' ridiculous self-imposed budget going to Polanco. Is there a way that the financials add up to still get someone like Robert? Luis Robert Jr. that is, or Hazu Sanchez, as mentioned on the Patreon podcast. What are the chances the Ms are even still looking to do something like this? So I would say no on Robert, even with the report that the White Sox are willing to eat some of the money. I just don't think you're going to be able to get them to eat enough unless they're willing to take on like Mitch Hanager or Garver where it actually falls within your budget with what you have left. what the front office has unfortunately been given from ownership.

Like let's make that very clear distinction. Jesus Sanchez, though, he avoided arbitration at a number of $4.5 million. So you could probably make that work still with what you have left. Yeah. And, you know, maybe it's like you include Trent Thornton in the deal. So he's only a $2 million player or something like that. I think to answer your question, any like serious. edition who's making above league minimum.

The Mariners are probably going to have to clear some payroll. So yeah, I mean, like, could they go get Luis Robert if they move Mitch Hanigar? Like, could they go get, you know, Luis Arise or Jay Croninworth or, you know, Robert Suarez or whatever? Like maybe if they move Mitch Garber, you know, like, so, yeah. And I still think that the Mariners are like willing and, you know, and probably pretty eager to move Hanager's contract if they can at any kind of reasonable rate. But the fact that they haven't yet, you know, probably tells you what teams are asking for to eat even a chunk of that money.

So, you know, we'll see. But could they still go out and add like an everyday type of player? Sure. But they probably are going to have to clear salary one way or the other. And obviously the more money the player is making, the more likely it is. that you have to move Hanager before that's even a possibility. But guys who are Arb one making two to four million bucks, like sure, I think they would probably, in the right deal,

they would probably find a way to make that fit just fine. But once you start talking about six, seven, ten, $15 million guys, they're going to have to move Hanager or Garber, more than likely one of those two to accommodate that. You're listening to the Lockdowne Maris podcast. C. Christensen wants to know. are they still considering trading Luis Castillo? And if yes, what is the plan to replace them?

No, I think that train left the station in December around the winter meetings. And I think you can thank the Houston Astros for that because pretty much coincided with Dana Brown announcing that, hey, yeah, we're listening on Kyle Tucker. That all those talks that we had heard about that the Marys were having with the Cubs about Nico Horner. and a potential three-team deal with the white socks and the Cubs. That all died as soon as Kyle Tucker became available. And then sure enough, the Cubs wound up acquiring Tucker. They trade ESOC Paredes,

which now makes Nico Horner more important to them. And there you have it. And also I think the Marys were trying to kind of fit in this tight window of essentially turning Castillo into Nico Horner and Christian Walker. And then they aren't able to get the Hornet, corner deal done. And then Walker also signs with the Astros. So again, you can thank the Astros for all of this.

Yay. Yeah. So there was a report yesterday that the Mariners are less likely to trade Luis Castillo than they were, which, no kidding. Like, yeah. There was also a mission that like the twins did check in on Castillo. And we didn't really talk about the twins. That's weird. You know, they do have a lot of. pieces that would make sense for Seattle, the problem is that they have a stingier ownership group than you do,

even though that ownership group is literally selling the team in April. So I don't know what they're doing there, but I don't know how they would eat all that money. So I would say Castillo, like the odds that he's not on the opening day roster or he's not in the organization on opening day because he might get heard. Who knows? But the odds of that being the case, like three to five. percent at this stage, I think. I'd put it even lower than that, honestly. Yeah.

I just don't think it makes sense anymore. I don't think it made sense a month ago. No, because like you talked about or like the, whoever answered, asks this question, I forget. Like they said, like, what's the plan to replace him? Well, I'm of the belief that the plan all along was to get his replacement in the trade. And I think that's why the Red Sox thing. didn't work out. I think the marines were holding out for Cutter Crawford and they couldn't get them. It's kind of weird on the Red Sox side of things not to do that. But whatever, they didn't. And so that was dead. I do think they were probably going to lever or they were probably trying to at least acquire like a Javier Assad type to at least be kind of a true number five.

So yeah, I do think that there was some, there were some, you know, part of the reason why the mariners were frustrated by the packages they were getting for Castillo's because they couldn't check off all the boxes like we talked about. So clearing most of the salary, getting a player who plays for you every day in 2025 and replacing Castillo is, it's a lot to ask any team to accommodate for you. So yeah, I just don't think that they were going to, you know, even now, like you look at Flaherty, he basically gets $25 million guaranteed, you know, for a one year. that's not something the mayor's we're going to be willing to do.

So yeah, I think they're not going to do it now. And I think the only way they were ever going to do it was if they got a arm back in the deal that they felt like they could reasonably have be the number five starter this year. And that's ultimately why I think the deal wasn't done. Because I think if it was just about getting a bat or two for him, I think Luis Castile would have been traded. I just don't think they got the arm. that they wanted back in the deal. And, you know, we also heard that they were looking at arms from the Red Sox. And I think that, again, just reading between the lines and everything I've heard and read about

that particular thing, I think that was, yeah, we like Kossis, but we would need like Crawford as well to trade Castillo because you're not better in 2025 with Kossis than you are with Castillo if you can't replace Castillo. Last question of the day comes from Campbell. And this is something that you touched upon a little earlier, Colby. Campbell heard Shannon Dreher on 710 say she wouldn't roll out trades earlier in the year if teams underperform. Do you guys think that can become the new normal?

Not many rebuilding teams in the offseason year in and year out. I mean, it would have to be a team that we're not expecting to fall off the table to fall off the table, right? Because like I, we all expect the Marlins to be bad, the Rockies to be bad, the White Sox to be bad. But those teams, that doesn't change anything. Those teams, by all accounts, are already willing to take prospects, pure prospect returns for their major league talent. So it would have to be someone like the Cardinals out of nowhere, just being abysmal. Or, you know, the twins, you know, just pick a team that we're not expecting to be god awful to be God awful to start the year. Right.

And I mean, it probably has to be a team or it probably won't even be in April because. Because like you could go like, you know, seven and 18 in April and still totally make the playoffs. I mean, it would have to be something similar to what happens to the Marlins last year, right? When they finally decided to trade a rise to San Diego? And when did that happen? Mid May, I think. Yeah, like it was pretty early on, but like the Marlins were trash. You kind of have to look around and be like, okay, who's that team that could go, you know, 11 and 33 out of the gate?

and you're just like, wow, like, might as well jump the market. And I think the Cardinals are a good one because the Cardinals are a team that want to at least do some kind of soft rebuild at the very least. And they've accomplished nothing this entire offseason. They haven't been able to move Aeronado. They're not going to be able to move Sunny Gray, at least as things sit right now. You know, they haven't gotten Donovan signed to an extension. They haven't gotten Halsley, signed to an extension. and those are all guys who, you know, ironically, the Mariners could really use,

but they're also guys who they should trade. And if you trade a Ryan Helsley in, you know, the middle of May, you're going to get more than if you wait until July because obviously the team acquiring him gets 10, 15 more appearances out of him. So, yeah, I think the Cardinals are a good candidate for this. They could just hover around 500, though, long enough and get to the deadline, kind of like the raise last year and then decide that they're going to sell. So yeah, I think the Cardinals are a good candidate for this. You know, I don't think that like the Giants would entertain that.

They just have too much, you know, invested in this roster. But that is a team I could see struggle really early and then just kind of bail. So yeah, I think, you know, the Cardinals are probably the team you're looking at here. Maybe Toronto, but, you know, we've seen how they've operated this winter and good on them. for spending money and going after players must be nice. But that is not a very good roster. Tampa I could also see, you know, kind of doing the whole Marlins thing as well.

So there might be a few teams out there that fit this mold. And I think it also takes, though, it takes a team that doesn't have a lot of, like, a lot to lose. Like Marlins, they know their fans weren't going to show up one way or another. So they can sell early. They're not worried about selling a couple extra tickets. And I think a team like Tampa would fall into that category as well. Also, you know, technically in Miami.

Like they might get to May and be like, yeah, let's just start training some of our both in guys. Let's trade Sanchez. Why not? So, yeah, I think it's possible we see a move like this. And, you know, has Jerry DePoto ever made a move well before, you know, the trade season to kind of bolster a good roster that desperately needs help? Yes, he has.

It was a while ago, but yes, he has. So, yeah, I think it's definitely a possibility. All right. Well, we got a couple more minutes here. That we can play around with. Hey, you want to tell us about the new pitcher the Mara's got today? Casey Legamina, I think. Lagoon Man.

Yeah, the Lagoon Man. Sure. He's a warm body. He attended Gonzaga, like other baseball rates. I got nothing. Ryan Sandberg. I know he's from. Marco Gonzalez went to

Oh, there you go. Boom. By the way, bring Marco back on a minor league deal. Anti-Franc while we're at it. Why not? Fives. Why not? Yeah, the arm, whose name I still don't know how to pronounce.

Laguma. I believe it is Legamina. Legamina Beach. And he is definitely a real person and not a Final Fantasy character. Yes, I actually purchased his card for my collection. Because unfortunately, he does have like 12 games in the big leagues. Yeah, he is he's a righty. Again, he's from, he went to school at Gonzaga.

He is a pretty extreme sidearmor, just slightly above a true sidearm slot. It's, you know, 93 to 94 mile an hour sinker, slider had a 29% whiff rate in the big leagues last year, got torched this year. Based on what I can tell, he's just in the middle of the plate too much. But there is some funk to his delivery. it's interesting is in 2023 he was getting down the mound quite a bit like you had a really high extension number this last year it was only slightly above league average so it feels like they shortened him up a little bit the reds did in an attempt to get him to throw more strikes and it appears to have worked because he did throw a lot of strikes this year but he is an extreme

ground ball pitcher uh that that's kind of what you want from him sinker slider righty not a ton of swing and miss as far as we can see right now could this be an instance of the mariners you know Paul C-Walding him and being like, hey, throw the fastball up in the zone and get whiffs that way. Maybe, but I think this is just kind of a warm body that you stick in AAA. You can come up in the middle innings, you know, in May and give you an inning in a third and get a couple ground balls and all of that. It's just a more valuable player than Jonathan Diaz. At least the Mariner seemed to think so. So, yeah, I think, you know, this is just another arm to throw in the pile.

nothing super exciting about him again kind of a unique arm slot and he seems to kind of be in between here do you want him to have the high extension do you want him to be you know short enough and throw more strikes like you're probably not going to miss a ton of bats anyways like extreme sample like extreme high end maybe you can get him to be another call in snider but i don't think he's got the swing and miss stuff but you know snider wasn't exactly striking out a ton of dudes when the mayor's got their hands on him either so we'll see but it's just just another arm in the pile. It's a ground ball guy. It's a middle relief guy. It's, you know, kind of JT. Sharkwa-ish. So whatever. But probably, probably one of those, you know,

$1 trade type of guys. Sure. The Tony Zick, David McKay type. Yep. Last question. How does the Luca trade impact the Mariners? Break it down for us? Well, I mean, like, the good news is, is that I heard that he's all. going to have to play second base for the Dodgers. So it might free up, you know, Max Muncie even more. So, yeah. Now, would the Mariners pay for Max Muncie and his $12 million? Maybe if they got Brony Jr. back. But, you know, LeBron probably not too happy about that.

Probably. You would have to get LeBron as well, which, oh, darn. Yeah, I just, is LeBron worth it? Is he honestly worth it? Like is even that good anymore? Would he just put up a triple double in Madison Square Garden the other day? Yeah, he did. Yeah.

Is he even worth it? Like 40 years old, he's still like one of the 10 best players in the league. Yeah. I know everyone's looking for like other sport equivalent trades to that. I don't, I'll just say this. I don't think there is one. I think that that trade is in its own realm. That's the craziest trade I've ever seen in any sport ever in my time watching sports.

it's you and I were talking about this off air though like if I had to come up with just a fake major league trade that would be essentially the equivalent of that it'd be something like bobby whit junior for mike trout because like trout like anthony davis when he's healthy still a top 15 top 20 player in the league but he's just not healthy often it's also in you know 30s compared to the young 20 mid 20s superstar yeah and bobby wood june Junior is one of the very few true untouchables in the league right now. So, yeah, which we thought the same for Luca, but that apparently was not the case. Yeah.

Shout out to our homies that locked on Mavs. I'm sure this has been a. I happen to watch a couple of their episodes. And, yeah, I feel for those guys. How was the funeral service? Did you see the videos, by the way? Yeah. Of the three guys bringing a casket down.

Yeah. Yeah. A lot of people leaving their jerseys. You know, being a Maris fan, it's nice to see a different organization that I'm not a fan of, do something stupid and have their fans rebel against them. It's nice for a change. It is. It is fun sometimes to be like, I mean, like, things could be worse. Sure.

The Maris haven't traded Julio yet. I mean, like, notice I said yet. So things could be worse. but yeah at least the Mavs went to the finals last year. Well, that's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marriss podcast. Colby Badnode. I'm Tiding, Azzles.

Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Marrers. You can follow me at Tadine G. Colby at C-Pat 11. That's C-PAT-1. We're also in Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB, Colby, and the show at Lockdown Marrars. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day,

and we'll see you next time. Peace.