Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - What the Sonny Gray Trade TELLS US About the Seattle Mariners' Ability to Deal Luis Castillo

Episode Date: November 26, 2025

Sonny Gray was successfully traded from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday, despite the guaranteed $40 million Gray is set to make by the end of 2026. Does that deal suggest anything about the Seattle Mariners' ability to trade Luis Castillo and what they could get in return for their veteran righty this winter? Ty and Colby discuss that, then weigh the pros and cons of trading not just Castillo, but each of Seattle's five main starting pitchers. Check out our Patreon!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolbySupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!PrizePicksDownload the PrizePicks app today and use code LOCKEDONMLB to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup.PrizePicks — Run Your Game.Click Link Here: https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/LOCKEDONMLBGametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONMLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime.FanDuelToday's episode is brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA and NFL seasons are here, visit the FanDuel App today and start planning your futures bets now.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Coming up on today's Locked-on Mariners, we'll discuss what the sunny gray trade might tell us about Luis Castillo's value. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, sailors, it is Wednesday, November 26, 2025. You're listening to the Lockdown Marys Podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Now the number one sports podcast network. My name is Tadangazales, and I'm joined, as always, by my co-co's Colby Patnode.

We're two lifelong Maris fans who've been covering the team for over half a decade. And today, we're going to look at yesterday's trade between the Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals, which, of course, sent veterans starting pitcher Sunny Gray to Boston and discussed what it might tell us about Luis Castillo's trade value. Then we'll also weigh the pros and cons. of trading not just Castillo, but each member of the Mara's rotation. Before we do, though, I want to shout out our title sponsor today. Fandual, right now new customers can bet just $5. And if you bet wins, you'll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app.

Download the Fandual app today. So Sunny Gray has been shipped off to Boston, do $35 million in 20206, and also has a $5 million buyout in 2027 on a third. $30 million mutual option. So that's $40 million guaranteed for a very good starting pitcher, but not an elite starting pitcher. The Cardinals, however, sent the Red Sox $20 million in cash. And for that, they got a pretty decent return here.

Yeah, Brandon Clark, left-handed pitcher who's getting some top 100 buzz going into 2026. And Richard Fitz, who can pitch in the big leagues tomorrow. So pretty good return, again, for a guy that, you know, last week when we were doing our NL Central trade preview, I saw his salary and I was like, whoa, that's a lot of money. And I think this is the closest deal we'll see all winter that will inform us maybe of what Luis Castillo's value might be. Now, it's not a perfect one-for-one comp because obviously like Castillo in 2026,

is only making $24.1 million, and, you know, the mayors could obviously chip in some money there and make it, make him even less expensive than Gray is going to be for Boston. But his guarantees throughout the rest of his contractor are greater than Sonny Gray's guarantees. It's about $48 million guarantees for Castillo. Plus, there's also the whole best-seeing option thing for 2028 as well. And also, like, if you want to go by F-4, Castillo has been working. worse than Gray the last couple of years. If you want to go by B-Wore, they've been basically the same pitcher.

Gray has got more strikeouts. He's better on the road than Cassio. So, like, there's all of those factors that come into play here. But again, I feel like this is the closest we'll get to potentially informing us on what Castillo's value might be. So what do you think this tells us, if anything, about Cassio's value? Yeah, it's tough to say. because gray is the better pitcher, but it's not a significant difference between him and Castillo.

It's just really not in terms of the actual on-field value they provide. They're roughly in the same boat. You know, if Gray is better, he's like half a grade better, not a full grade better than Luis right now. So it's a little bit tough to say because, again, like Gray had more of a hit in year one, whereas Castillo has a second year of club control, which usually would on the trade market be worth more than a rental. But in Castillo's case, because of the trends and because of the money that he's due,

it might actually be a negative on his trade value. So you're kind of in this weird zone where it does the extra year of club control actually help you or hurt you if you're looking to make a sunny gray type of trade? because, again, you could also eat enough money to make Luis Castillo. And honestly, you don't have to eat all that much money to make Luis Castillo cheaper than Sunny Gray. And Sunny Gray again, and Louise Castillo are near the same tier. So it really is an interesting, you know, conversation to have. I don't know how much this tells us just because, you know, the splits is a big thing. The home road splits for Luis.

is a big thing that doesn't really exist with Sunny Gray. But I think you're making Mariners, and you're looking at this trade, you're going, okay, well, that's what we want because we want somebody who is, you know, like a legitimate asset. And then we want a guy that we can plug into our rotation to replace Castillo right away.

Obviously, you know, a guy like Fitz probably not going to be as good as Luis this year, but he's at least major league ready and he's better than Logan Evans. So, yeah, the Cardinals don't really have to worry about that all that much because they're rebuilding and they're okay having a true number five

starter being their number three guy because they don't care. It's not about wins and losses for them this year. So Seattle's going to want a little bit more impactful help. So I think overall when you kind of combine all these things, I think this trade cost

is like the most the Mariners could hope for from Louise Cassio. Like this is the ceiling of Cassio trade. I don't think they're doing this. I don't know if they can do as good as this. But it is, you know, honestly, I don't know if it's all that much different than the trade we came up with in our offseason plan. Because, you know, Birdsong and, and fits are kind of similar in terms of like where they're at, big league wise. And they got big league seasoning.

They both had a little bit of big league success. But ultimately, they haven't stuck yet. The big difference here is the prospect quality. that they got so yeah um i i don't know i it's tough to say again because of the roads the home roads splits boston is also a team that in theory would have had interest in louise castillo that no longer would so the market might have shrunk a little bit but then again also one of the pitchers that might be traded this winter is now off the market as well so it's a little tough to say it's a little tough to nail down i would say ultimately this trade tells us with the

ceiling of any Luis Caprio and I think that's about it. Like if you thought you could get more for Luis than what the Red Sox got for Sunny Gray, you're disappointed by this return. But I think this is the ceiling and I think if they were to trade

Luis, they would be lucky to get something I don't know, 80% of this maybe, something like that. Yeah, I don't know if it tells us a ton but it does give us some idea to shoe for. I think just the the issues that are presented with a Castio deal with a potential castio deal are too different from Sunny Gray situation that this could be like a one

for one type of comparison here like the home road splits specifically I mean that this just well the money aspect of Gray is a you know a bigger hurdle for or was in theory a bigger hurdle for teams to overcome. There's just more options there, I think. I think there would just be more teams interested in gray and there would be more willingness in putting gray in their home ballpark for half a season because of just the great difference in home road splits

between these two guys. I mean, Sunny Gray last year, opponents hit 247, 272, 429 against him on the road. Luis Castillo opponents hit 302. 3, 492, 491 against on the road. Like, we've talked about, you know, over the past three weeks, the teams that are probably going to be interested in Castillo are teams that have, you know, pitcher-friendly ballparks or, you know, ballparks that at least skew towards being

pitcher-friendly. Now, none of them are going to be as extreme as Team Mobile Park. But, you know, it's the Giants. It's the Padres. But there's only a handful of teams that both make sense to actually go out and acquire Luis Castillo, who also have the ballpark that they might feel comfortable bringing Castillo into the fold-in. So I think from that perspective, just because there's just going to be fewer options, probably. There's going to be fewer teams interested in Castillo than there were on Sunny Gray, but totally for that reason. I think the path to getting a return similar to what the Cardinals got is a lot more narrow.

So, yeah, maybe this is the ceiling on a Castillo deal, but again, because there probably aren't going to be as many teams and on Cassio, I don't know. I don't know if the Mariners can get that price that high in negotiations. Yeah, it's also possible the Mariners might just end up if they do trade. Castillo, which, I mean, I don't think we have a lot of indication that they're going to, but if they did, they might be looking at an entirely different type of deal. It might be a contract swap type of situation, which, you know, the Cardinals, they don't want, the whole point is to get rid of the money.

And so they could save $20 million on Sunny Gray and get that package. That's a win for them. The Mariners might not be all that interested in that type of deal because they still want to compete and so if they can trade and this isn't going to happen but again just hypothetically like a louis castillo for jeff mcneal thing it's like okay they save money and they get a utility guy slash second baseman slash whatever right like so they save a little bit of money on castillo and they get a player who can help them uh this year i think that is more likely the deal that the mayors would try and make uh down finding that deal as tie and i discovered on the two weeks

we worked on the offseason plan, that's the hard part because there's really not a ton of options there. But some kind of, you know, Jake Croninworth, Jeff McNeil, you know, what if Jeff Hoffman, I don't know, trade is like maybe the way that the Mariners go. But yeah, I think all in all, you look at the sunny gray trade, you look at how that impacts the Mariners in Luis Castillo. I think you say, well, that's the ceiling. Like, that's the best they can do if they want a like, pure prospect package dump a lot of the money type of trade like that's the best they can do and by the way to get that the marriage are still going to have to eat some louise castillo's money so again you know i do feel like if we are going if we are going to hear anything about a louis

castio trade it's probably going to be like just sprung on us and it'll probably be shortly after the new year when the no trade clause officially expires so let's weigh the pros and cons of not just trading castillo but every pitcher in the merri's rotation we'll do that in just a moment But first a reminder, this episode of the Lockdown Marrace podcast is brought to you by Fandul and Dewar. The NBA is back and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandul, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Even if you miss the start of the game or want to ride the hot hand, Fanduel has live bets on everything from who will score next to fourth quarter comebacks. Plus, you can even combine your live bets into a same game parlay for a shot at a bigger payout. every game exciting, especially when your team is making that late push.

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for making Lockdown the number one sports podcast network. A quick programming note for tomorrow for Thanksgiving, we're going to be taking the day off unless the mayor has decided to do something. You know, they did trade for Gene Seguera and Mitch Hanager the night before Thanksgiving. So maybe if something like that happens, either tonight or tomorrow, we'll do another show. But if that, we'll be back on Friday for probably Fan Fiction Friday. So keep an eye out for that. All right.

So we just talked about, you know, what the sunny gray trade might say about Luis Castillo's market. Now let's just talk about trading Castillo and trading any of these other pitchers in the Mara's rotation and just what the pros and cons are would be of doing that. So let's start with Castillo. The pros and cons should obviously should be obvious because we've talked about them already so much over the last few weeks. We talked about them a lot last year as well. But to you, what are the clear pros and cons of trading Luis Castillo? The pro is, I mean, the pro might be that you get out from some of this contract and you have more money to spend than you currently do. Yeah, that's really the pro.

It would also possibly clear up an opening in your rotation for 2027 when we are anticipating Kate Anderson, Gerangelo Sanger, maybe Ryan Sloan to be ready to compete for that opening. So those are kind of the pros. The con is that you don't have the Louise Castile replacement ready in-house. You're going to give up your probably safest pitcher in terms of giving you innings on a year-to-year basis. So you're going to have a lot of innings to cover without the ability to cover them in-house. And you're going to have to, you know, whatever money you save on Cassidy, Castillo in a trade, you're probably going to have to put right back into the rotation to get a pitcher who probably isn't going to be quite as good as Luis Castillo.

You kind of lose the veteran presence in your rotation, although Kirby and Logan are certainly veterans now. But you do kind of lose that veteran presence, and you lose a big game pitcher. Luis Castillo for all those flaws and whatnot really does shine when the game is more important. And he does seem to dial it in and get sharper and significantly better. And he just really is a gamer. So you kind of lose that edge in your rotation. You lose the value of the bulk innings that he gives you. You lose the relative safety of his health.

And that's important when you look around this rotation. And you see all the guys who missed time last year, Luis Castillo, the only guy who didn't. So there are certainly a lot of cons to trading Luis Castillo. Brian Wu with four years left with club control. The only pro that I could find here is that you would get a haul for him, but also wouldn't teams just go,

well, that's just too expensive. We're just going to go target X, Y, and Z instead. Right. Well, I think the idea here is that like if a team is willing to give you what you think that player is worth, what are the pros and cons to trading them? The con is you're trading your best pitcher.

yeah and again maybe you get his replacement in the trade but you don't have that like the the con for all these guys is Logan Evans is the next man up like that's the con uh to to trading all these guys uh so that's just a blanket statement there but the pro is is that woo gets you the most i think uh he uh would be the guy and he also you know the pro is that Brian Wu is probably the one with the longest injury history of any of these guys. So that could be a way, you know, you sidestep it before all the wear and tear of pitching over the next four years hits him. And then you have to decide do we sign him to an extension or not. But I think the pro for Wu is that he would net you the most because the price for Brian Wu,

who just finished fifth in Cy Young voting, who has gotten kind of better every year he's been in the big leagues. And we don't even know if he's reached his ceiling yet. doesn't walk guys he misses enough bats uh he basically dominates with two pitches and and he's shown a a real knack for for you know finding that slider at times and if you can get that more consistent you might have a legit number one on your hands so yeah the pro is that he nets you the most uh the con is a the the depth aspect of it and b you might honestly be selling a little low on him because the difference between three years of Brian Wu and four years of Brian Wu on the trade market, it's really probably not going to be that significant.

But if Brian Wu goes out there and does what he did this year again, and now he's got like, you know, the track record of being a top five, six, seven pitcher in the American league, you're probably going to end up getting more back for him. Maybe just wait a year than if you don't. But, yeah, I think ultimately, I find it hard to believe that you can. going to be a better team in 2026 trading Brian Wu than you would be just kept them. You're listening to the Lockdown Merrittor's podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

As always, if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, we have a Patreon. It's called Control the Zone. And on there, we talk Marrars, Seahawks, all that good stuff. For more information, go to patreon.com forward slash control the zone. Link in the description. We are weighing the pros and cons. of trading all the pitchers in the mayor's rotation,

not just Luis Castillo, just talked about Cassio and Brian Wu. I kind of want to put Logan Gilbert and George Kirby kind of in the same category here. Even though that Kirby has one extra year of club control, I feel like the cons are basically the same of trading both of these guys that you're probably selling low on either of them coming off of the years that they're coming off of. Now, Kirby really started to lock in there in the second half of the year and the postseason, for the most part, he had a pretty good postseason. But obviously, started the year hurts and just had a down year statistically. Then obviously we know the deal with Logan, the elbow thing, just not being able to get through starts that efficiently, you know, really struggling to put guys away in a timely manner, all that, then had a very poor ALCS on top of that.

well. So I just feel like you're selling low on both of those guys. So it just really doesn't make sense to trade either one of those guys this one. Yeah. I think the thing with Logan, though, is that like this is your last chance to get something significant for him. Because once he becomes a rental, a one year rental, that's going to severe, like the biggest gap in terms of trade value is going from two years of club control to one year. There's a steep gap. Because look at what, you know, Corbyn Burns for one year got. He got a couple, you know, a former back of the top 100 prospect who didn't really find his footing with the Orioles. And he got a back end of the top 100 prospect. And Joey Ortiz, who's really a defense first guy. And they got a draft pick. Well, you know, Logan isn't as good as Corbyn Burns right now. I mean, could he have a year where he becomes like the Corbyn's level of pitcher in 2026? Sure, but that's probably the ceiling of what you're getting. Whereas if you trade him right now, even coming off of the year, that he is, you're probably going to get more than that. So the pro is, is that, like, this is your last shot to really, you know, cash in on Logan

Gilbert as a club-controlled young, top of the rotation starter. Because after this year, you can still trade him, but you're just going to get significantly less. If you're going to trade a star, you want to do it with two years left, not three or not one. So honestly, that might be the pro to trading Logan. I think one of the cons to trading Logan is obviously that, well, it's just me. personally i don't know this for sure it does feel like logan is uh significantly more likely to sign an extension here than george kirby and i don't think you want to be in a position where you're

trading both of these guys and back-to-back years because you couldn't get an extension done uh so yeah i think that's probably and i think Logan has the highest ceiling of anybody in the in the in the rotation as well so uh yeah i think you know the whole you're selling low on him. Yeah, I just think maybe, but it's, again, he has two years of club control left. Which is why, by the way, when we talk about George Kirby, I think it makes sense to wait on Kirby, not trade him this year because if he bounces back and he has a pretty good year, or even if he has a breakout year, which would be nice.

George has kind of plateaued a little bit recently. If he has a breakout year, well, then I have two years left of that guy. I can still cash in on his dominance and I'm not selling low on him. So I think the con is that you would be selling low on Kirby without a reason to. And I don't know if there really is a pro to trading George Kirby because I think you'd still get a good haul for him. But you're not going to get, you know, what you would have gotten if Kirby had come out and had a better year. And you're probably not going to get significantly less than if you just wait a year. Hope Kirby breaks out or, you know, stays healthy this year.

and you get probably more than you would, even with less club control because he's broken out and he's proven and he's coming off of a good year. So I actually think the, you know, the argument for trading Logan is that this is probably the most you're going to get for him if you ever trade him. The argument against trading Kirby is that, well, if you wait a year, you'll probably get more.

So it's kind of a weird thing where it's like the club control matters here. And also I think, you know, the pro to trading Kirby in general is that I think Kirby is the least likely of these four to sign an extension. And again, that's guessing on my end. But I do think, I have found that that to be fairly consensus, like the idea that, hey, which one of these guys is the least likely to sign an extension with the Mariners? I think Kirby would be the winner there. If you asked 100, like, content creators and reporters and all that, like, and they were

honest with you, they probably, I think Kirby would be the overwhelming. favorite there so yeah some interesting uh pros and cons with both logan and and george i think ultimately again i wouldn't trade logan i would try to extend him and i wouldn't trade george this winter because i think you're selling low on him and and i don't think that there's a significant difference between trading him this winter and trading him next winter i guess we could also package brys miller into this conversation into that same conversation because is there a pro of trading Bryce Miller coming off of the year that he's coming off of? Well, let's see.

He's got the most club control or does he and Wu have the same? I think he and Wu have the same. Yeah. But he's not as good as Wu. He doesn't have the track record of Wu. You'd also be selling low on him. I guess the pro is, is that like you just went through most of the last year without price Miller and it really didn't cost you much because you still went to the ALCS you were eight

outs away and Miller really didn't contribute in the regular season at all. So I think that's probably the pro is that like you kind of already seen what life is like having to use Logan Evans and Emerson Hancock to try and fill in for Bryce Miller and you already thrived as a team under that condition. Would it have been better if they had Bryce Miller earlier? Yeah, of course, absolutely. but like it still didn't prevent you from from getting where you went so and i bryce is obviously a huge part in the playoffs but again for the regular season the bryce miller injury really didn't cost you that much in the grand scheme of things and so you've kind of seen that you can survive without this guy uh so i think that's probably the only pro of trading brice and also that

you'd probably get something pretty interesting for him but i don't know if you're going to get again And it's just wait a year, have them be healthy, and you'll probably get more next winter. You can just wait one more year. Yeah, like the only thing that I would be interested in trading Bryce for right now would be, you know, a position player that's basically Bryce Miller, right? Right. And can I do that right now? I don't know.

Like, would you trade any of these guys for Jaron Duran? Three years of Jaron Duran. because that's a guy who is like a three four win player he's got three years of club control left it sounds like he's almost certainly getting traded this winter so uh the red sox obviously they just acquired sunny gray so maybe this doesn't matter at all but just in theory like would you trade him for would you trade any of these guys for duran or a player exactly like duran on another team i think bryce yeah i don't think i would so the other thing too that i'm you know obviously just so but like take louise out of here yeah yeah but just to to clarify on like what i mean when i say trading for a position player that's like price i'm talking like that's like bryce before 2025 like how we view of rice 2023 2024 yeah yeah um i just don't i don't know if that's possible i i i would consider i heavily consider the jaron duran thing yeah i don't think i would it wouldn't be bad if they did

it but like also you got to give in mind bryce is making league minimum duran's making seven eight million bucks so uh yeah you'd almost want the player to be also you know roughly the same like you're looking for essentially michael pinata for hasus montero just hope this time around you get the better end of it uh than the last time you try to try like that but that's a what you're looking for you're looking for you know a young all-star quality pitcher for a young all-star quality hitter yeah the the the most popular one has been westberg you know jordan west brice miller for jordan westberg right which i think i would do that yes i would do that yeah yes i wouldn't do woo and i think that's kind of where the oriels would be so uh in terms of like

how I would rank them as my trade preference if I were like I wouldn't trade any of them just to be clear yeah yeah I think you're just better off just keeping the rotation as is and and you know maybe adding around the fringes which they kind of already have with with will Cox and and dobb knack you know they kind of added to that a pile of starters that they could stash and triple potential starters um but like if I had to rank them in terms of like who I'd feel most comfortable trading, Luis Castillo is one, but you almost have to take him out in his own separate category. Of the four young, homegrown guys, I would say, I would say Bryce won, I guess Kirby 2,

almost by default, Logan 3, Wu, 4. Gilbert Kirby one is tough. A big part of that for me is that I think you can get an extension done with Logan. Yeah. Yeah. But also, what's the elbow looking like? Sure, but obviously that would be factored into the extension. Yeah, yeah.

And if the elbow's bad enough for you not to want to sign them to an extension, the elbow is going to be bad enough that nobody's going to want to trade for him. Yeah. I think in general, though, I probably have the same list as you. Miller 1, Kirby 2, Gilbert 1, Kirby 2, Gilbert. three, woo four. That's going to do it for our show.

Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marriss podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. For Colby Pat Node, I'm Tiding Gazzalas. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at LO underscore Marrars. You can follow me at Tading Gzalus and Colby at CPAT 11.

That's CPAT 1-1. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby in the show at Lockdown Merrers. You can also find us on Instagram at Locked on Marrars. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.

Thank you.