Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - What Will Work Itself Out and What Do the Mariners NEED to Change?

Starting point is 00:00:00 No Mariners game tonight, so we're going to use the off day to look back on their first month of the season. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, sailors, it is Thursday, May 2nd, 2024. This is tighting as awesome. Colby Patnaud for the Lockdown Marries podcast brought to you by Monopoly Go, the mobile hit twist on classic Monopoly. Join your friends and download Monopoly Go now free on the podcast.

Starting point is 00:00:35 the app store and Google Play. Thank you so much for making us your first. Listen, subscribe, like, and turn on alerts if you're watching on YouTube or subscribe and leave a five-star review on your preferred podcast platform if you like what you hear. And if you're part of the crew and rock with us every single day, let us know in the comments below. We'd love to hear from you. And if you want to hear from us even more, please consider signing up for our Patreon. You can now get a free seven-day trial to check out the show. The link as well as our social accounts is in the description of this episode. And on this episode, we are going to look back on the first month and some change of the Mariners 2024 season.

Starting point is 00:01:09 And we're going to look at some of the weaknesses of the team and dissect if that's something that will eventually work itself out or something that may lead to the Mariners having to look outside of the organization to make some changes or even within the organization to make some changes and just give you overall our impressions of the first month of the season as well. So let's start with the offense. were not great in the first month of the season, to put it lightly. They finished tied ninth in the league in WRC Plus,

Starting point is 00:01:46 ninth worse, rather, and WRC Plus, 93 WRC Plus tied with the nationals there. They were bottom five in pretty much every category. They were the worst, of course, in terms of strikeout rate. But there is a positive-ish spin on that. since game one of the Red series, when they started going on this series win streak that they're on right now, 112 WRC plus that's 6th in Major League Baseball. They're slashing 232, 312, 405 during that time.

Starting point is 00:02:19 They're still leading the league in strikeout rate, which is still a problem. But they're also walking a lot to kind of counteract that a bit. 10.1% walk rate during that span, fourth in Major League Baseball. But overall, not great. Every position group, aside from third base, go figure for the Mariners, finished below average in terms of WRC plus, below 100 WRC plus.

Starting point is 00:02:48 So, Colby, what were your impressions of the first month and change for this Mariners offense? And then, you know, what do you look at in this offense that you think will eventually work itself out and what do you think might need to change over the coming months? Yeah, the offense wasn't very good. I mean, we can spin it any way you want. It wasn't very good. They struck out way too much, but that wouldn't have been as big of a deal if they were also hitting doubles and home runs, but their slugging percentages way down as well.

Starting point is 00:03:23 Obviously, they're batting average. It's tough to hit for a good average when you strike out a ton. Traditionally, the more you put the ball in play, the more hits you get. Crazy, I know. but that is what the strategy was supposed to be this winter, and it just really hasn't worked out that way. So the offense has undoubtedly been disappointing. We've seen glimpses of what the offense was supposed to look like.

Starting point is 00:03:43 And we've been seeing that offense for, you know, three or four days in a row before it inevitably collapses back in on itself. So, yeah, right now you're just, you're not getting, I don't think you're getting enough damage. Like, I think you're getting a fair amount of base runners, especially lately. You're getting enough guys on base. You're just not driving them in.

Starting point is 00:04:03 You're not getting them in. So that's a consistency issue. And it's very similar to what we saw last year, where the offense overall was fine. They scored enough runs, you know, despite the strikeouts. But they didn't have a consistent, like, you know, benchmark that you can count on repeatedly to continue to score four, five, six runs a game.

Starting point is 00:04:24 It would be nine, one, two, one, one, nine, eight, ten. you know, two, three. And you're just like, I don't know what I'm going to get on a daily basis. So it's a little similar to that right now. But, you know, I kind of look around and I say, you know, what's where are the problems and what do I expect to be kind of fixed in-house? I think Julio's better than a 90 WRC plus. I think we can all agree on that. I think Cal Raleigh will eventually find a kind of a level footing where he is just, you know, more consistently good.

Starting point is 00:04:58 He's always going to be a little bit of an ebb and flow hit. because it was swing and miss. Yeah. He's been one extreme of the spectrum and the other. He's been like unplayable and like the best player in the world all in the same like week. So Raleigh needs to find some consistency and I think he will. Polanco is just way too good of a hitter, you know, throughout his career to just kind of hit 180. And he's surviving right now. He's giving you something because he's hit some home runs.

Starting point is 00:05:24 He's drawn a ton of walks. So I expect him to, to, you know, see that average jump up by 50. 60 points here. And then I think when J.P. Crawford comes back, he'll at least be average at the plate. And he was starting to figure things out before he unfortunately went on the IL. So I do think that, you know, up the middle, I actually feel pretty good about where they're out offensively.

Starting point is 00:05:45 And areas I'm not sure they have answers for right now are on the corners. First base, right field, left field, kind of, and D.H. Kind of. I'm just not sure they have the right mix there. and I'm not sure if they have the guys in their system to just kind of fix that long term, like for the rest of the season in-house. Do they have some guys who might be able to help for the next couple months until you can get to the deadline? I think they do, but I don't think that they just have like the answer to all their problems

Starting point is 00:06:17 is just in the minor leagues. I don't think that's the case here. I think this team could really use some more speed on its roster. And we saw what kind of a benefit that can get. of them with the small sample of Jonathan Clossay, who they decided wasn't ready enough for them to justify putting him in the lineup consistently to extract that speed. So it's probably going to have to be someone else at some point this season, but that speed did make a difference, the ability to make things happen on the base pass to get that extra base on a single in the left field,

Starting point is 00:06:52 for example, et cetera. And really, like, right now it's Julio, it's Dillamore. it's Luke Rayleigh. That's really where all of your speed comes from on this roster at the moment. Now Haggerty. And now Haggerty, of course. Right. Right. But I think eventually they're going to need someone that you can feel better about at the plate than a Sam Haggerty that can get on base more consistently than a Sam Haggerty. It would also be great if they were an above average outfield defender because they need some outfield defense as well. So it's possible that could be Ryan Bliss. It's possible that could be Samad Taylor. It's possible. It's possible. that could be Cade Marlowe, which does bring us back to the corner outfield discussion here. So we talked a lot about Mitch Hanager yesterday. The defense has been horrific four or five out of the last 10 games.

Starting point is 00:07:43 And obviously Mitch has been very critical of himself. He does recognize that, you know, he has been an issue out there. And it's something that he said he's going to work on. But with just who Mitch is physically, I just don't really see how that's going to to get significantly better. In terms of the range, in terms of the ground that he can cover, et cetera, which we've seen crop up as a problem, especially yesterday, especially against the Diamondbacks,

Starting point is 00:08:09 that's not going to change. So they do need someone that can cover more ground out there. Do you think that guy is in the organization, is that Cade Marlow, or do you think they're going to need to go outside of the organization at some point this year to find that guy? I think that guy right now is Cade Marlowe. he is a guy who can actually play center field a little bit so he can definitely handle a corner.

Starting point is 00:08:33 He's made some really great plays out in center field down in Tacoma this year. Like he's a guy who can make those plays, get to the balls that Hanager can't even get to and convert some loud contact into outs, whereas Hanager, he just cannot. And I think also when you look at Marlowe, you talk about a guy who, you know, you're looking for that speed element, a guy who can come off the bench and steal a bag, a guy who I can put in late as a pinch runner, who, you know, when he puts the ball in play, there's pressure on the defense to make sure they field it cleanly and all that stuff. That's Cade Marlow. He's also hitting for some power now. The strikeouts are elevated. He had 37 strikeouts in the month of April, which is just not going to cut it. But about 23 of them came in one week stretch, which is, whoa.

Starting point is 00:09:19 Like, that's impressively bad. But, you know, in the other three weeks, he's been fine. He's going to still strike out. He's got a little bit of an upper cut swing. but he's got power, he's got speed, and most critically, he has outfield defense ready to go, and that doesn't slump. So, you know, when you kind of look at where Hanigur is right now,

Starting point is 00:09:37 offensively as well, he's not making up for it at the plate at all. He is your worst player right now by far, and I think calling up Cade Marlowe and just at the very least, knowing that you can go into the seventh inning and have Marlowe and left, Julio and Center,

Starting point is 00:09:54 and Luke Rayleigh, in right field, I think that's going to help you prevent more runs, which again, because the office is struggling as much as it is, preventing runs is kind of close to scoring runs. They're almost the same thing. A run prevented is a run, you know, scored essentially right now. It has to be. So I do think that Marlowe is the answer, and I don't think that means that, you know, Hanager should never play. I think it means that Hanager should go back into the role that we all thought he was going to fill. Hit against lefties, you know, maybe play three times. times a week, be the veteran presence and all that, maybe get a D.H. Day in there, too, so he gets

Starting point is 00:10:31 three or four games played a week. He needs to do that because right now he's on pace to play like 154 games and it's not going to work and we're already seeing this guy wear it down. So to me, Marlow is the answer here. Short term, long term, I think they got to go outside the Oregon. Thankfully for them, when it comes time, when teams start to trade pieces, the corner outfield bats, they're kind of a dime a dozen. You can go get those guys. guys every year. You can go get your Tommy fam. You can go get your Mark Kana, blah, blah, blah. And you can get them for nothing terribly expensive. So when you look at the corner outfield, I think part of the solution is kind of a platoon of Marlowe and Hanager for the short term. And then

Starting point is 00:11:12 we'll see what happens when Canzon comes back at that point. But yeah, I think that's the short term answer is Marlowe needs to come up. He needs to play a little bit. Hanager needs to sit a little bit, not only because of his defense, but also for his own good for him. his health to just kind of maintain and, and kind of recharge here. Because right now the marines really don't have a choice but to play Hanager, because they don't have Can's own, right? And they're already now really playing pretty much every day. And you're not going to play Sam Harrogh every day.

Starting point is 00:11:41 No, you're not. And Samad Taylor has not hit at all down in Tacoma. Like if you think Marlowe's numbers are bad and they're not, they're not great. But if you think his numbers are if he, go look at Samad Taylor. He's not the answer down there either. So to me it's Marlowe. That's the guy. And it's a band-aid, right? It's just a band-aid right now. But you need a band-aid because right now you're hemorrh gene. So I want to ask you about Thai France and Mitch Garber a little bit. We'll do that in just a moment. But first, a reminder, this episode of the Lockdown, Aaron's podcast is brought to you by Fandul and Monopoly Go. It's playoff time in the NBA and NHL. Baseball's in full swing. And Fandul is your place to bet on every game. Right now, new customers get $150.

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Starting point is 00:13:41 And you're listening to the Locktime Marries Podcast. Thank you again for making us your first listen. Mariners will get back after it tomorrow down in Houston. You can catch all the action between the Mariners and the Astros on the Mariners hometown broadcasts with Sirius XM on the SXM. All you have to do is search Mariners. So we are reviewing the first month and change of the Mariners' 2024 season. Talked a lot about the offense, but I want to get to Thai France now. Let's talk a little bit about Ty, who's been hitting the ball hard like we talked about.

Starting point is 00:14:13 I think some of his issues so far have been more of a launch angle problem than really anything. But the overall number is not great right now, 95 WRC Plus. he's been worth negative 0.3F war so do you think the the merrers who I'm under the impression they at least considered non-tendering Thai France

Starting point is 00:14:35 this past off season do you think that there's a pretty short leash there and we could see maybe Tyler Lockley or soon or look you know right now in my way too early trade target rankings I think Christian Walker is at the top of that list I know we'll get a lot of questions about

Starting point is 00:14:51 Pete Alonzo as well in the coming months leading up to the deadline if the mares are obviously, you know, looking to buy. But. Yeah, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So how are you feeling about first base right now? Do you think Ty will eventually get it going and more slug will come from all the, you know, the hard hit balls that he's been producing or do you think they're going to have to look elsewhere? My concern with Ty, he's trying to get to this power that he thinks he has and he doesn't.

Starting point is 00:15:23 Like, Ty France thinks he's a 30 home run guy. He's not. I think he's a 20 home run guy. And I think you're tapping out that power ceiling at 20. So, you know, all the hard hit balls are great. But if he's hitting them all on the ground, you know, those aren't going to turn into hits for Thai France. Like the dude's super slow. Like he needs to hit the ball on the line and he needs to hit the ball in the air.

Starting point is 00:15:45 But when he hits it in the air, it's more likely than not going to be an out. So, you know, you're kind of in this weird spot with France where he hasn't been so bad. that you feel like he's just dragging down your lineup, especially when you compare him to some other guys who have been legitimately bad. So I don't think we're at the point now where it makes sense to call up Locklear, although Locklear has been very good. We'll talk about him in a second. It doesn't make sense right now because France isn't like isn't the big problem,

Starting point is 00:16:13 but right now he's not part of the solution. And I think we're a couple months away from the very least, the Mariners having serious talks about moving on from France in general just going out and getting a first baseman. Could that be Tyler Locklear? If he has a couple more months like he had in April, maybe. But I think we're at least two months away from that. And two months is a lot of time for a guy who has the track record like Ty France has to kind of figure it out and get it going.

Starting point is 00:16:39 But yeah, Francis definitely on the hot seat. I agree. But do you think we'll see Locklear get a taste of Tacoma before, kind of. coming up to the big leagues, or do you think they could call him up straight from AA? It's interesting. The Mariners have been pretty aggressive calling up hitters from AA to the big leagues and pitchers. And for some guys, it's worked.

Starting point is 00:17:10 Like, Julio didn't need AAA. Cal Raleigh did, you know, and Kyle Lewis didn't need AAA. But Jared Keldnick did. Like, you know, it's just kind of one of those things where it's a case-by-case basis. So it's tough for me to sit here and say like, oh, the mayors will absolutely put him into triple A because we know how like conducive that environment is to hitting. So how much are you going to learn there? But the pitching is also better. So it's kind of a, you know, a double edge sword here.

Starting point is 00:17:38 I think what's most likely to happen is that the mares would call him up to AAA so that he's close. Right. Like so that we can see him. We can keep an eye on him and all that stuff. Like he's down the road. So if we need him, he's there. So my hunches is that they would actually put him in AAA, but his stay in AAA might not.

Starting point is 00:17:58 Like I think when they call him up to AAA in their mind, they're saying he's really close to being a big leaguer. So like I don't think they're just going to call it like with Class A, right? Like class A not really that close to being a big leaguer. Like you can stay and be a big leaguer. But we'll put him in AAA for the challenge and we like some of the things he did. I think once they make that decision with Locklear, like it's like, okay, any second now,

Starting point is 00:18:19 Locklear could be on the big league roster because that's a pretty aggressive. jump for a guy who can literally only play for space. So then let's talk about Mitch Garber. He's actually been fine at T-Mobile Park. It's just on the road. He has, I believe you posted the other day, a 7 WRC plus on the road. Like we all predicted.

Starting point is 00:18:42 Right. After his, what was it, 0 for 35 or whatever it was at T-Mobile Park in his career before he made his marriage debut. you. Um, so what do you make of him so far? Because you did include DH as one of the spots that you're at least semi concerned about right now. Right. I don't know there's an answer on the roster, like or in the in Tacoma or whatever. Uh, there could be one for it. See, Mike Ford. Uh, anybody want to double dip on Mike Ford? I kind of don't. Um, but, uh,

Starting point is 00:19:17 yeah. Well, and then the thing too is like, you can't move on. from Garver paying him too much. Yeah. He's on the roster guaranteed next year. There's nothing you can do about it. Like you just got to find a way to make it work with Garver. Well, and you need him. Just flat out.

Starting point is 00:19:35 You need him. Because right now when I look at this Mariners lineup as it sits right now, they need to add like a number three hitter and like a number five hitter. Well, Garber could be one of those guys. Because right now they've basically gotten very little from Garver. So they just give 2023 Garver, well, there's your number five hitter or maybe even your number three hitter depending on, you know, what year Garber you get. So Garber can certainly be part of the solution. Right now he's part of the problem, although we have seen, again, it's continued with Garver, right?

Starting point is 00:20:07 One big step forward and then two steps back. And he's just kind of in the cycle where he's, you think he's found something and then it's right back. So he's kind of trying to work through that right now. But I don't see the answer here for him. I think if you're going to call up Locklear, right, I think he's playing for Thai France. Because I would rather take a chance on Garver's upside and him reaching that and getting back there than Thai France upside, which based on the last, I don't know, let's see, second half of 2023 all of last year in the first month of this year is like a league average bat, which is not good for a first baseman, particularly one who gives me zero value defensively and actually hurts me on the basis. So, yeah, I'm going to take a shot with Garber. I'm going down with Garver at least until like July when I might actually be able to go get somebody to help out there.

Starting point is 00:20:59 But I don't I don't think there's anybody in the org that can do that right now, despite Locklear's very impressive month of April in a really pitcher-friendly ballpark. Right. All right. So let's talk a little bit about the pitching here in just a moment. but first, a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Errors podcast is brought to you by prize picks. Baseball season is in full swing, so don't miss your chance to add your favorite players from the diamond in your prize picks entries. Whether it's strikeouts, RBI, or first-ending runs, take your pick more or less and add them to your prize-picks entry today. You can also get in on the basketball playoff action and went up to 100 times your money on prize picks as you and the world's best players take the game to a whole new level during the postseason.

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Starting point is 00:22:18 on the Mariners hometown broadcast with SiriusXM on the SXM app. All you have to do to find that is search the word mariners. All right, so let's talk about this pitching stuff. And let's just start with the rotation, which we're not really going to have much of a discussion here. I just want to talk about how good they've been real quick. So from the start of the season to April 9th, which was George Kirby's rough start in Toronto. They were 26th in the league in ERA, 521 ERA, 4.05 FIPP, that was 15th in the league. They had allowed the fifth highest opponent batting average of any rotation in baseball,

Starting point is 00:22:58 263 opponent batting average. They were 10th in K percentage, and they had the third lowest walk percentage. So those numbers were more than fine. But then, from Logan Gilbert's start in Toronto to the end of the month, 167 ERA first in major league baseball by a mile second place 314 ERA almost twice as good no one finished in the twos incredible 295 FIP first in the league of course 167 opponent batting average first lowest 29.2% K percentage first by a mile once again. And then 6.2% walk rate

Starting point is 00:23:48 second lowest in the entire league. So yeah, Mara's rotation pretty good. Detroit. Oh, well, that makes sense. Detroit's got a good rotation. Yeah. So bullpen. Bullpen's also been pretty good at every single guy in the bullpen is running a sub three ERA

Starting point is 00:24:05 through the first month of the season. But, you know, they're obviously not at full strength. It doesn't seem like they're going to get Matt Brash back this year. We'll see on Gregory Santos. I think he's getting closer to ramping up. But again, things can crop up once he starts throwing again, et cetera. He'll get that brash. Yeah, exactly.

Starting point is 00:24:26 So that's no guarantee. But Andres Munoz had a couple blowups, but he's also had some really huge moments this year as well. Most recently, Game 2 against the Braves with the five-out save. Gabe Spire has taken a significant leap this year. and has established himself as a high leverage arm and arguably the best lefty reliever in baseball this year early on. Ryan Sanek's been kind of shaky,

Starting point is 00:24:54 but for the most part, he's gotten the job done. Awesome vote has been solid. Trent Thornton's been solid. Taylor Saucato's been really solid. They've gotten really good production out of this bullpen, but I know you believe that at a certain point they need to go add another high leverage dude.

Starting point is 00:25:09 So talk a little bit about that. I think they're too high level. leverage guy's shorts. Now, the good news, I guess, is that they might possibly have one coming back off the IL and Santos. So maybe they only need the one, but Stannock is not a high leverage guy. He's too inconsistent, you know, with the walks and all that stuff. He really struggled this year to finish innings.

Starting point is 00:25:34 He'll get two outs and he'll look pretty good and he'll get two strikes on the last guy. And then, oh, no, it's three straight balls. And then he lays in a fastball and there's a single. And, uh-oh, you know, it's kind of unraveling. on him when somebody gets on base. So he's too inconsistent to be treated like a high leverage arm. I understand why they have to do it right now. But ideally, he's like the fifth guy because you would, in theory, right, you would go

Starting point is 00:25:56 Munoz, Bras, Santos, Spire as your top four. Well, Brash is down, we assume, right? And we can't really count on Santos until we see it, until we see him pitching for the Mariners. You can't count on it. Middle guys, I think you're totally fine. Now, they want to, I mean, Hunter Strickland is just out there for, performance. free, yeah, go get Hunter Strickland, bolster the middle, fine, whatever.

Starting point is 00:26:16 But I think you need a guy who is closer to that Paul Seawald level than, you know, somebody who's closer to that Trent Thornton level. I think adding another middle guy, or more specifically, you need somebody closer to Seawald and not as close as Stannock, right? I think there's a separation between those two. Stanick to me is a mid, mid-leverage guy, mid-high leverage, maybe in an emergency. Seawall's a high leverage guy, right? and that he's not the highest leverage guy, but he's a high leverage guy. So there's kind of a bit of, you know, labeling and it's beauty in the eye of the beholder,

Starting point is 00:26:48 blah, blah, blah, blah. But to me, they need another guy who can essentially, like, in layman terms, like you put him out there with a one run lead in the ninth, you feel totally fine that he's going to get that safe. There's going to be teams that are going to fall out of this. There are going to be teams who are kind of fringy in it, but it still makes sense for them to trade, you know, a bullpen piece like the Mariners last year. There's going to be teams like that this year as well.

Starting point is 00:27:09 So I'm pretty, you trust Jerry with the bullpen, pretty much completely. But can you go get, you know, Pete Fairbanks or somebody like that. Can you go get Paul Sewell? Can you go get whatever? Somebody better than Stanick, essentially. Eric is what I'm looking for. Yeah, that works too. All right.

Starting point is 00:27:32 So that is going to do it for our show. Before we get out of here, a reminder that Lockdown has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube and now it's also available on Amazon Fire TV and the free Fire TV channels app. Lockdown Sports Today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of Locked-on, plus our national shows covering every league. Find Lockdown Sports Today now available on the free Fire TV channels app. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marrars podcast. For Colby Patnode, I'm Tideon-Gazales. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L.O. underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Tideane-Gonzalez. and Colby at CPAT 11, that's CPAT-1-1.

Starting point is 00:28:10 You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Thank you again for making us your first listen. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.

Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - What Will Work Itself Out and What Do the Mariners NEED to Change?

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