Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - What's Holding Up Luis Castillo Trade to Boston? + Joe Doyle Talks Mariners 2025 Draft

Episode Date: December 18, 2024

Luis Castillo is still a Mariner for now, but rumors about a potential move to Boston continue to swirl. Ty and Colby take a closer examination of the potential fit with the Red Sox to try and figure out what might be holding up the completion of a deal. Then, Joe Doyle of Future Stars Series and Over-Slot: The MLB Draft Podcast joins the show to discuss the Mariners landing the third overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft and which draft hopefuls fans should keep an eye on once amateur ball kicks off in the coming months.Check out our Patreon!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolbySupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONMLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime.Omaha SteaksFrom legendary steaks to mouthwatering desserts and more, save fifty percent off site-wide at OmahaSteaks.com. Plus, our listeners get an extra thirty dollars off with Promo Code MLB and a thirty-dollar reward card when you shop early.IbottaDownload the FREE Ibotta app now and use code LOCKEDONMLB to get 100% cash back on your Thanksgiving feast starting November 1.FanDuelYou can start the season with a big return on FanDuel. New customers can place a FIVE DOLLAR bet and you’ll get started with ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS - if you win your first FIVE DOLLAR BET ! Visit FANDUEL.COM to get started. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

So, if not Tris and Kossis, what do the Marrars want from the Red Sox for Luis Castillo? We'll discuss that and then talk some 2025 Mariner's draft with Joe Doyle coming up here on the Lockdown Marriss podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors, it is Wednesday, December 18th, 2024. This is Tadigazilis and Colby Patnaud for the Lockdown Marriss Podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast. part of the Lockdown podcast network, your team, every day.

Today, we're going to talk a bit more about what exactly the mayors want from the Red Sox for Luis Castillo. And we'll also be joined by Joe Doyle, a future star series to talk some Mariners 2025 draft. But before we get into all that, a reminder that the college football playoff is here and you don't want to miss a moment of the action. The college football playoff presented by Allstate begins with four first round games, December 20th and 21st on ESPN, ABC, TNT. and Max. I'm really looking forward to those on-campus games, especially Tennessee versus Ohio. That's going to be a really fun one.

Hey, also, if you want to hear from me and Colby, even more and help support the show, check out our Patreon. All you have to do to check that out is click the link in the description of this episode. So Colby, it's another week of recording, and the Mariners still haven't done anything.

Luis Castillo is still a mariner for now. but those rumors, the speculation around Castillo haven't died yet. Still hearing a lot of speculation out of Boston. Mark Feinstein the other day in his mailbag article that he did was asked, you know, who would be more likely to be traded this winter, Delin Cicester Castillo, he said Castillo. And even, you know, Ryan Divish and Adam Jude have continued to mention it. Daniel Kramer as well, who did say that, you know, the mayors do like Tristan Kossis,

which contradicts what Peter Gammons reported the other day. You know, obviously there's been a lot of conflicting information about Kossis and whether or not the mayor is actually like him and if he's actually part of these trade negotiations or not. But Kramer's been, Kramer and Jude and Divish have been pretty consistent that, yeah, they do like Casas. They just don't love them enough to trade Castillo for him one for one. Divish in an article last week did say that, or did speculate that, you know, the Marys could trade Castillo for Casas and a prospect.

Maybe that's their preference. So let's start there as we try to figure out what exactly the Maras went back in a Castillo deal. Because we're still not entirely firm on what that is. is what is essentially the tipping point for the mayor is to go forward with a castillo trade so we talked about this on our patreon show yesterday and you and i kind of both came to the conclusion that like all right if they like cossus but they don't love them and they want a prospect on top of that like that has to be a fairly significant prospect now they're not going to get marcello mayor they're not going to get roman anthony they're not going to get christian campbell that's not

realistic. But I highly doubt that we're also talking about like, you know, the Red Sox version of Brock Rotten here, like some guy that's like in the 20 to 30 area of their rankings, right? So it has to be a pretty significant prospect. So what are we talking about here? Are we talking about, you know, like a right handed pitcher who's pretty much ready for major league action like Richard Fitz or what's the other guy, Hunter Dobbins. Yeah, or David Sandlin. Or are we talking about, you know, maybe a high upside kid that's down and, you know, low A or high A or what have you that they really like?

What do you think? Have you done any research on the Red Sox farm at all? And have you seen maybe anyone that you think makes sense for the Marys? And, you know, that might be the hang up here. A little, but first things first, it's interesting that, like, the people who in theory have connections inside the Mariners run office are saying like no the mariners like casa's fine peter gammon says the mariner's don't like cossus at all well where do you think peter gammon's is getting his information from the redsocks front office so what we appear to have here is that like the mariner's like no casas is fine he's just not enough

for louise cass de and the red sox are saying like no he should be more than enough i guess if he's not you just don't like him And it's like, that's not what's being said. So, yeah, it's very much a he said, she said type of situation here because it's pretty clear where, you know, Kramer and Jude and Divish are getting their info. And it's clear where Gammon is getting his info. And when you just follow that line, it makes a ton of sense that, you know, the Red Sox would be like, no, they just don't like, they just don't like, they just don't like cost us because they wouldn't give us Bryce Miller for him.

And it's like, that that's not what's happening here. Right. But the whole like antiprospect thing is weird because if you're the Red Sox, if this is just kind of a, you know, a fringe major league prospect, keep in mind they traded two of their top five in that Garret Crochet deal. They won't trade any of their top three. So basically the top five for the Red Sox is off limits. And the rest of their farm, there's talent there, but it is a ways off.

Most of the impact talent is way off. from the big leagues and that's it they ever get there a lot of 2028 ETAs and whatnot so you know those guys i can't imagine they're that appealing to the mariners um and if you're the red sox like why wouldn't you if that's really what they want is the guy who's three years away why wouldn't you just add that on we know that prospects right now aren't carrying a lot of value in trade talks we already know that so it's very weird because it feels like unless the mariners are really like you have to give us Marcelo mayor or whatever ever, which doesn't seem like they're doing that, then I don't see anybody else in this farm system,

aside from those first three guys, Anthony, Merrin Campbell, I don't see anybody else in this farm system that I would let hold up a Louise Castillo trade if I really wanted Castillo for costs. Like if I'm the Red Sox and that's the deal I want to make. Like, why am I saying no if the marriage are like, but you need to throw in David Sandlin too? Like, cool. Sandlin is, you know, coming off of a pretty. bad year. He's only pitched at double A. Stuff isn't amazing. He throws some strikes. He's a strike

thrower. But he's like a number four, number five ceiling guy. And I'm going to say no to that, even though I'm acquiring Luis Castillo. Like to me, that doesn't make sense. And then from the mariner side of things, everybody who's kind of like above Sandlin, they're two, three, four years away from even sniffing the big leagues. And why if you're the merits, does that carry any value for you? It really doesn't. So the whole like for a prospect thing to me. me it doesn't make a ton of sense because I can't find the guy unless they are like convinced that you know Miguel Bleas or Blyse is like some star and they can get him to the big leagues within a year or whatever I just don't really see a guy here in the system that I'm like yeah

that's a guy that's you know good enough to bridge the gap but not good enough to but not so good that the Red Sox would say no. And so I really don't see a prospect being the hang up here, to be honest. So I feel like there's something else at play here. Or maybe Kossis isn't the headliner. And as that result, the Mariners want Campbell in the deal, right? And so they want one of those top three prospects because maybe Kossis isn't the headliner.

But we know the Red Sox really want to trade Kossis, even though they continue to say, no, we don't. Well, you do. Right. And so the Mariners, and the Mariners very clearly, they don't love Tristan Kossis. They like him. They'll take a shot on them. But they would clear $24 million and saw one of the biggest holes in their lineup with a young, controllable player. And they've looked at that and said, like, no, it's not enough.

Like, we're not better because of that trade. So I think you just kind of read between the lines here. And I don't know the whole like Kossis and a prospect thing makes a lot of sense because again like why would the red Sox say no to that unless the mergers are asking for anthony mayor Campbell and there's no way they are right so maybe i don't know i don't know i'm not sure it's a little weird and and again i mean i mean maybe they are maybe maybe that's why this isn't happening because they're they're going okay this is the only way we're trading louis castillo's if we get something just insane back for him which i mean you know when you start out asking

prices should be high, but we talked about this with the Dumbrowski thing. It's like they still have to be somewhat realistic. But even if, all right, like, even if it is one of the pitchers, which it might be because maybe the mayors are trying to check off two items off there.

Like they get a controllable pitcher who's not making any money in return. Possus and Cutter Crawford. Yeah, well, we'll get into that aspect here in a second, but if it's just like Richard fits. right yeah i don't see why the why the red sox would have any issue doing that because all right

they'll have crochet they'll have halk they'll have bayo they'll have crawford and then if they're worried about depth well lucas gilito should be ready to go relatively soon uh he had the the brace put in his elbow back in i believe march and then uh garrett whitlock as well also had the the brace put him back in may i believe so he should be able to pitch at some point in 2025 as well. They've got Sandlin and Dobbins too. Yeah. A couple guys who are more Emerson Hancock than anything, but like.

So to your point, I don't think the hang up here would be one of the pitchers. So if it is coming down to like a prospect on top of Kossis and that's kind of what the hang up is here and maybe it's not. But if that is what the hang up is here, maybe they are shooting for the moon. Maybe they are asking for Roman Anthony or Christian Campbell or Marcelo Mayer. Which, yeah, I can see why the Red Sox haven't budged on that. So, yeah, yeah, maybe it's that situation. And maybe the mayor is like, and at that point, maybe the mayors aren't all that serious

about trading Castillo. Right. They're looking for the Godfather offer. Yeah. So it's interesting. So we'll talk about the Cutter Crawford aspect here in just a moment because Alex Spire, the Boston Globe has talked about that a little bit. So we'll get into that in just a moment.

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slash locked on. And you're listening to the Locked-on Mariners podcast. We are trying to figure out what the Mariners want exactly for, Luis Castillo, especially when it comes to the Boston Red Sox. So we talked about the, the speculated Casas in a prospect package that Ryan DeVish has thrown out there. Now let's talk about what the other side has thrown out there. Alex Spire of the Boston Globe,

who was the one that reached out to a source when the rumors were really swirling about Castillo and the Red Sox. Ask them, hey, does a Casas for Castillo deal have any lead? and his source said outright no. Spire has further said that the marers are actually looking at pitching when it comes to the Red Sox. And then he went on a Red Sox podcast, I believe it's called Three Ten to Left and said, yeah, the Marriers have been looking at like Cutter Crawford and then some infield help on top of that. So again, that goes back to what I was saying just a couple minutes ago. maybe the bearers are trying to check off a couple boxes here. Trade Castillo, free up the money.

Get his replacement back, who's not really making any money. And then hopefully address one of your positional needs as well. But if you're trading for Cutter Crawford, I don't see the Red Sox also trading Tristan Kossus on top of Crawford. So at that point, we're probably talking about if they want infield, help. We're talking about Saddan Raphaela. Who can't hit. That's why his report doesn't make a ton of sense to me because you look around that Red Sox infield. Are the Mariners really going to trade Luis Castillo for Cutter

Crawford and David Hamilton who had an IDWRC plus last year? No. They're going to do it for Raphaela, who's pretty much all of his values baked into defense and some base running. no, that doesn't make sense because you're not actually, you're just getting worse at the plate or on the mound and you're not actually improving your lineup because statistically speaking, neither Hamilton nor Raphaelah are better hitters than Dylan Moore. In fact, I don't think either of them were a better hitter than Ryan Bliss last year. I'm not sure. I think, I think Josh Rojas was better than Raphaelah,

and I think he was just a few percentage points worse than Hamilton. by WRC Plus. And so obviously you're not getting Devers, right? Like, no. And so, you know, story doesn't make any sense because then you're not saving any of the money, which would be a big part of this. So you look at it and you say like, it kind of has to be CASIS. If they are dead set on it being an infielder, it has to be CASAS.

He's the only one that makes your lineup better. And I like Raphael as a player. He's a fun player. He's got some pop. He can steal some bags. He can play all over the place. You really don't want him playing. shortstop, but you're covered there. You don't need them to play shortstop for you. But he can't hit.

This is like a 74 WRC plus. He can't hit. And so you're not better if you make that deal. And the only way the Mariners have said repeatedly, they will trade Luis Castillo if they get better from the trade. And they're not. That trade does not make you better because, again, I wouldn't even write, you know, Raphael and Pencil as the starting second basement next year because Dillan Moore might just be better. That's not an upgrade. So it kind of has to be awesome. I mean, at best, he's, he's filling Dillamore's role because Dimo is the everyday third baseman or second basement. Right. So it's like, do you want to trade Luis Castillo for a number five starter?

Pretty good one. I mean, Crawford's fine. He's good pitcher, but he's not, he's not great. Like, his ceiling is a number four. That's what he is. Like, he's fine. As a Luis Castillo replacement, fine. But if you're not upgrading.

with Crawford, there's no point in doing it. It puts so much pressure on what you do with the money. Right. And I, again, for me, like if you're trading Castillo, the money has to be secondary. So, like, I can't be like, oh, well, yeah, I mean, I took a little less for Castillo, but I use the money to hopefully make my club better by going out and signing, you know, Christian Walker or whatever. And it's like, I mean, that's a lot of hope.

But. Well, and, you know, you. said this on the Patreon show yesterday like when it comes to this front office and what you trust them to do and be able to succeed at like identifying offensive talent in the free agency market pretty much at the bottom of the list which it has to be like how could it not so so like yeah there is this is no slam dunk that you're going to trade castillo

and you know the freeing up the money is like the you know is a huge part of that and you're going to wind up getting better. Especially because like who else are they going to use now they can use it on multiple someone's right. But like who else if we're talking about big free agents who else are they throwing that money at other than Christian Walker who's a 34 year old first basement. A good one but when is the cliff coming for him? Yeah and maybe you're a big fan of you know bat speed equal being equivalent to your ability to hit fastball below got some bad news for you about Christian Walker.

Like, are you going to give Pete Alonzo, really? Like, that's the, Lonzo's been pretty, I mean, he's been good the last two years, but he has not been the superstar he was a couple of years ago. So, yeah, and that's pretty much it, right? Like, there's not an outfielder to go spend that money on. There's not a third baseman to go spend that money on. I mean, I don't think you're going to all of a sudden being the Alex Bregman thing,

but even if you were, what is not accurate, what would not be accurate, is to trade Luis Castillo for, we'll just say, Crawford and Raphaelah. And they'd be like, well, in reality, that was actually Castillo for Crawford, Raphaelah, and Christian Walker. Like, no, that's not a thing. Yeah. Would you rather have Crawford, Hamilton, and Walker, or Luis Castillo, Carlos Santana, and Hysung Kim?

Yeah. Like, that is not a slam dunk. It's not. So it's just one of those things where I don't think, like, you cannot look at a Luis Castillo trade and pretend that the money you saved is the same thing as acquiring a player. Because it's not. It's not. So I don't really get the, feels like somebody is getting lied to here or somebody is getting bad information. Because it's just, it's not lining up.

And also. It doesn't add up. No. So. And by the. way like this whole notion that they might wait until roki sasaki signs i don't buy that either because at that point again because freeing up the money from castillo is a big part of this it isn't the biggest part of this or at least it shouldn't be yeah it can't be but it is a big

part of this by the time that rokey signs if he signs with you or another team doesn't matter Christian Walker might be off the market Anthony Santander might be off the... I mean, it seems like he might sign with the Yankees here in a couple days. Yep. Whoever else you might be interested in might be off the market. So then you're just going to have that money and no one to really spend it on.

I mean, again, you can spend it on... You can spread it out to multiple free agents, but who's going to be left at that point? So I also think, like, if you were going to try... trade Luis Cascio, you need to do it in the next week. I don't think you can wait for the new year, and I definitely don't think you can wait for Sasaki to sign. No, it'd be,

you'd be playing a really dangerous game. Yeah. So, yeah. And so again, if they're asking the Red Sox for, like, Roman Anthony, for example, sure. Then they're probably not even being serious about training. No, they're not that serious about training.

If they're asking for Cossus and Roman Anthony, Anthony, they're probably not all that interested in actually trading Castillo. They're hoping somebody gets desperate, essentially. Yeah. Which is fine. Like that's a totally legitimate plan. Like, again, at the end of the day, the worst thing that should be on the table for the Seattle Mariners is that they have to keep Louise Castillo. Oh, no.

That would be terrible. Oh, darn. Right. The worst thing on the table that could actually happen is that the Mariners get desperate enough that they trade Castillo for less than he's worth just for the money and their ball club as a whole gets worse as a result that yeah and if you're and if you're doing that for the sake of trying to sign a 34 year old first baseman who is showing signs of decline particularly with the bat speed yeah that that terrifies me i mean yeah so it's just

it is a weird situation i would i would say this i think a happy medium here. Because again, I don't believe that there is a single player who works as a headliner for Castillo on the Boston Red Sox besides Casas. And maybe Willier-A-R-Ray-U, but Abrae doesn't make a ton of sense for the Mariners. So it's kind of Casas or bus. I also wouldn't trade Castillo for Cascio for Casas straight up. Casillas had the rib carlidge tear thing. He's 250 pounds.

He's already a big dude. those guys don't tend to get more athletic as they age. And he's been good at the big league level. He hasn't been a great hitter. He hasn't been an elite hitter. So I wouldn't do it straight up anyway. So I think the mayor is asking for more than causes is fair. But what is more that makes sense still for the Red Sox to do that trade?

That's where we run into some issues. Yeah, I don't think it exists. Right. Unless the possibility here would be the mariner, and this is just a hypothetical, The Mariners trade Castillo and like Harry Ford. Yeah. And they get Casas and Cutter Crawford. Yeah.

That is a scenario where the Mariners clear money. They get their Castillo replacement. So if they get Sasaki, great. They still run with a six-man replacement. And they don't have to spend money on the replacement either. Right. And that's the big point right there. Instead of spending $15, $16 million on a number five,

you're spending $3 million or whatever. Crawford's supposed to make an arbitration. You're getting Kossis and the Red Sox, while they're giving up Crawford, who is going to get pushed out of the rotation anyways by Castillo, they also get a pretty good, solid prospect, top 100 type of guy, who also still catches, which they just traded Kyle Teal. So, you know, that could be, you know, coming to play here. I think I look at a deal like that and I go, you know what?

The Mariners upgrade at first base. They replace Castillo, save a lot of money. in the process and they get a quality number. They get a guy who's good enough that I don't feel like you have to go out and spend the money you saved on Castillo on an arm. I think that is the happy medium right there. It's something in the lines of Castillo and Harry Ford for Casas and Cutter Crawford. I think that's in the ballpark affair.

I think that's realistic. And I think it helps both sides pretty darn well. So that's what I would be looking for. That's where I land. And it kind of is a melding of all the reports we've heard. yeah so that's where i'm at like i think i do think that works i do think that works quite a bit i think if something happened and maybe again maybe it's like yeah harry ford fine but like we really we'd like some bullpen help then and seattle goes okay well like we still like i don't know

richard fits do you want gregory santos or trent thornton or colin snyder whatever right sure like but i think the basis of a new trade castillo and somebody like harry ford in that range for Cutter Crawford and interesting costs. I think that's fair. Yeah, so it's really interesting because again,

you know, you run down the list of the teams that have been connected to Castillo. Really none of them makes sense, especially if the Cubs are not willing to trade Horner. There really isn't another team that jumps out to me like the Red Sox do.

I'm like, all right, that makes sense. I can wrap my head around that. Well, I don't love. love Tristan Kossis. I don't. And it doesn't seem like the Marys do either. I can at least wrap my head around, Kossis being the guy in a Castillo trade. That is an appropriate shot to take is how I would phrase it. Like that young enough, enough upside, enough production that you're like, okay, like maybe it doesn't work. You never know. These things are a gamble anyways. But that's the guy that you're like, I understand like that is defendable. That is justifiable. That is logical.

like it all makes sense and you just hope that it works and that's pretty much all you could ever hope for from any trade does it make sense does it make your major league team better like does it logically can you see why somebody would think it would yes the process is good yeah then you just hope that that the results match the process and that's all you can't do in any trade all right so i want to tell you guys a little bit about fanduel and then on the other side of that we're going to talk to joe doyle about the Mariners in the 2025 draft. Get ready to tackle the NFL action with Fandul, America's number one sportsbook, because right now new customers can bet $5 and get $150 back in bonus bets if you win.

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Well, the Mariners had a quiet winter meetings on the major league front, but you'd be hard pressed to find a team that had a better week than they did as far as the 2025 draft goes. It started a couple days before the winter meetings when they were awarded a competitive balance round a selection, which is pretty cool. And then a few days later, they worked their way from the second lowest lottery odds to landing the number three overall pick in next summer's draft. And because of those special circumstances, I'm planning on having a lot more draft coverage than usual here on the show. And that starts today.

Longtime front of the show. And draft expert Joe Doyle is here. You can find his written stuff over at Future Stars series and get incredible draft coverage over on his Patreon with the. overslot MLB draft podcast. Joe, thanks for coming on. It's certainly a fun time for you now that we have the draft order set. You just posted your first mock over at FutureStars a few days ago,

but I don't think anyone could be having as much fun as Scott Hunter in that marriage draft crew right now. Yeah, I mean, you went from having, I mean, anytime you can go into a draft with like five million more dollars than you were expecting to have, like the possibilities that it opens up for Scott and Jerry pretty limitless. And especially when, you know, I talked to scouts throughout the year. And there's a lot of scouts like scouts in Florida, scouts in Southern California to a lesser extent, scouts that cover Texas A&M who didn't plan on spending more than a minute on Jamie Arnold or, you know,

Jace Lobulet. But now it's like, I've probably got to go in there four or five times and just, you know, check my bases here. So yeah, I think Scott Hunter, Jerry DePoto, and all of the scouts for the Mariners organization are having a pretty good week. Yeah, this is certainly uncharted waters for Colby and I. The highest pick that they had since we started covering the team was the sixth pick in 2020 when they took Hancock. But this is even more different than that because like literally anyone's on the table now. So before we dive more into the Mariners, I want to get your thoughts on the, the Draft Lottery itself.

This is now what the third year of its existence. Last year we saw the Guardians jump up to the number one pick with just 2% odds. And the Reds right behind them at the second pick despite having what like 0.8% odds, I believe it was. Yeah. And then the mayor is this year. So is this work in the way you had hoped? Are the results maybe a bit too extreme?

Where do you land on that? Yeah. I think selfishly as someone that covers this year around, it's awesome. because it gives me something in December. But in terms of like the way that it's actually operating, I don't know if it's really curbing, tanking too much. I think the penalties are a little bit on the extreme side. You know,

I think there's a misconception or a misunderstanding within the industry of what the lottery is. Like the lottery itself is only 16. There's only six ping pong balls that are actually pulled. And then after that, it just goes by the worst record to the best record. So like Seattle, for example, could have never landed the number 12 or 14 or 15.

pick. It's impossible. But for the for the white Sox to come off the worst year in baseball history, 100, what was it, 121 losses and be relegated to the number 10 pick, you know, the White Sox weren't trying to be bad. And they didn't not spend money. So I don't know if they should be penalized. I think the two things that I would do is one, I would move the penalty back to pick seven, not pick 10. That way it's just outside of the lottery. And then if you're going to pick, keep pick 10, at least give the teams back what they lost in the previous year's lottery. So like in 2023, the White Sox ended up picking, I think it was five. And they were actually supposed to pick four.

So they lost a spot in that lottery. If you lose a spot in the previous lottery that also disqualifies you from the top six the next year, give them that spot back and let them pick ninth, for example, in the following year. So I don't know, it's a long-winded way of saying, I think it's a very interesting, unique concept that certainly brings eyeballs to the winter meetings, but I don't know if it's actually accomplishing what Major League Baseball wanted it to. So obviously getting the third pick in any draft is great,

but compared to other recent drafts, how good of a year is it to have this pick? How good is the top end of this class, or at least how good is it shaping up to be? Yeah, so the top of this draft is probably, I wouldn't call it spectacular. It's a deeper draft than it is top-heavy. It's not as good as like the 2020-3 draft with Max Clark and Cruz and Langeford and all those guys.

But I do think that there is a, at least this thing stand right now, a bit of a tier drop-off after the top, for me, after the top three guys. And Seattle's going to get their crack at any of those guys. And to be clear, my top three are not Ethan Holliday, are Jace LaVuette, Tyler Bremner, and Jamie Arnold. I think any of those three would be a great player to come away with. I think the thing that's particularly encouraging about this class is you could lump any of those three players into the top three, and you could probably lump in five or six guys into that mix as well and make a really good case that they're the best player on the board. And that should afford the Mariners the chance to do an underslot deal, a slight underslot deal. This is a very, very good draft.

It's a very deep draft in terms of high school hitters. And so Seattle should have the ability to land a pretty exciting high upside high school bat at 35. And then I think they'll pick again at like pick 60. And they should have extra money there too. So as people that follow the draft, you look back on this 2024 draft and it's like, okay, they cooked all of their money on Ryan Sloan. And rounds three through six were college relievers that are 23 years old. I don't see that being the case this year. quite a few outlets you know you mentioned Ethan Holiday quite a few outlets have Ethan Holiday as the number one prospect in this draft but you're not nearly as high on him right now I believe you had a mock to go 10th to the white socks

um so I wanted to ask you about that because obviously that's a name that's getting thrown around a lot in the Marys fan base son of Matt Holiday brother Jackson holiday a lot of helium around him it seems at least in terms of like the the pipelines of the world right but uh yeah what Why are you relatively low on him? Yeah, I mean, it's not a, for me, I don't think it's a hot take. It's, it's well researched and well thought out. I've seen Ethan Holiday. I saw 26 plate appearances from him this summer. He hit 240 this summer. He only slugged 350 this summer.

He had a 30% whiff rate. He really struggled with velocity anywhere in the strike zone. There are things about Ethan Holiday that are impossible not to like 6'4, obvious bat speed, good frame, bloodlines, like, there's a lot to buy. But if I'm buying a high school player in the top five picks, you know, like you look back at Colt Emerson, for example, Cole Timerson hit 390 and he slugged and he ran and he played shortstop. Ethan Holliday played third base, projects to play third base, is already an average runner and

didn't really hit as a junior and didn't really hit as a sophomore either. So I don't know if it's a case of. you know, other outlets not wanting to backtrack on the guy that they've had number one and, you know, the family ties that are associated with Ethan Holiday, you don't want to bet against that. He's a, he's easy to be a household name. But yeah, like if the draft were today, I'd take I of Arquette over, over Ethan Holiday. I fully expect Holiday to prove me wrong in the spring and make some adjustments. But as things stand right now, I would have a hard time selecting him in the top five. So you mentioned I of Arquette, you mentioned your top three guys.

Obviously, there's still a lot of, or there's still a whole season of amateur ball to be played. So things can change pretty significantly over the next eight months. But right now, as we head into the next season of amateur ball, who should we be keeping an eye on for the merits of pick three? Yeah, there are some guys that I expect to make a jump. The guy that I just, I have to circle in it. Maybe it's not the best situation with what Seattle currently has in house, but Luke Stevenson, the catcher at North Carolina, is just a guy.

Like the one thing that Seattle has targeted year after year after year in the draft is players that project to play somewhere up the middle. You look at Cole Young, Harry Ford, Colt Emerson, Ty Pete, Johnny Farmello, all these guys that they've drafted high all play up the middle of the field. And one thing that you're going to find at the top of this draft is, you know, I've Arquette, probably. moves to third base. Luke Stevenson is going to play up the middle of the field. He has a chance to hit 25 homers. He's got that Kyle Schwabre kind of, you know, powerful left-handed swing, even though

he's definitely going to catch. So Luke Stevenson is certainly on my radar. I don't think you can discount a guy like Cam Canarella who's dynamic and can run and can hit for a little bit of power and it is a spark plug. He would be a guy that I would circle. But I think you would honestly be remiss. not to look at the top of this draft and look at Tyler Bremner and look at Jamie Arnold and look at the state of the Seattle Mariners rotation and look at the state of the control years of the Mariners rotation and not say, okay, we don't really have a top of the rotation ceiling type of arm that projects to join this rotation in the next two or three years. There's such a big drop off after Jamie Arnold and after Tyler Bremner in this class as

things stand here in December, I would be very, very surprised if, you know, if you're in Vegas right now, you have to put your money on one of those college arms. And I think it would be money well spent. And I still think you could go under slot with either of those two positions. Last question for you because, you know, I wanted to keep things fairly basic. Again, we have eight months until the draft. We're going to have you on on the show plenty of times in between now and then. But, you know, you mentioned at the top of this thing, options are limitless for the merits in this draft. Tell us a little bit more about what they could do. And do you have a preference yet when you envision, you know, eight months down the line of how you'd like to see

them maybe attack things. Yeah, I mean, I think college pitcher with your first pick is the safest, most rational thing to do. And, you know, I say underslide, it triggers people, you know, because people say, oh, don't save money. Just take the best player. Don't take the haircut. Well, 72% of top three picks in the last five years have been underslide. It's just the nature of picking in the top three.

It's the top of the class. So I would like to see them go with Bremenor or Arnold. I really don't have a preference. They're two very, very, very different players. And then once you get to pick 35, it's going to afford you the ability to, take some chances on on a player that maybe is in high school like a Slater de Bruin or Tate Soutacine. And then there there should be more enticing college pitching available in the second and third round that I think you should go for. So I would go college pitching twice in

your top four picks. I would take a high upside overpay high school shortstop with pick 35. And yeah, I mean, this is this is it's it's gearing up to be a really good draft for Seattle and a draft where they can really restock the cupboards for extending this competitive window. Joe, appreciate your time. We'll, again, we'll definitely have you on here a lot more over the coming months as we get close to the draft. Again, for those of you listening, and you can find Joe's work over at Future Star Series

and overslaught the MLB draft podcast on Patreon. Joe, what you got coming up on both of those? Yeah, Patreon. We're, you know, continuing to bring in scouting directors week over week. I think I've had 17 scouting directors in. We are overdue for a Scott Hunter podcast. He will certainly be on in the next few weeks, I would hope. And then I usually have Jerry to Potow on in January as you do.

So we'll probably do that. And yeah, just a weekly show talking about this draft and what it brings and what to look forward to. And I'm sure future star series, we're going to have new draft rankings coming out here within the next five or six weeks. Looking forward to it. Great stuff. Be sure to check it out. Joe, thanks again. All right, man.

All right. Thanks again to Joe Doyle for hopping on the show. And that's going to do it for us. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marrars podcast. Colby Paddode. I'm Tiding Gonzalez. Be sure you give us to follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Tadig Izzalus and Colby at C-Pat-11.

We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby, and the show at Lockdown Mariner's. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time. Peace.