Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Why the Mariners Will Yet Again Pass Up on Signing Blake Snell This Winter

Starting point is 00:00:00 For the second year in a row, Blake Snell is a free agent. So that begs the same question that dominated last off season. Should the mayor sign him and trade one of their pitchers? We'll answer that and more coming up here on Mailbag Monday. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day.

Starting point is 00:00:27 Ahoy, Sailors. It is Monday, November 4th, 2024. This is Tanya Gazales and Colby Patna out for the Locked-on Marers podcast. part of the Locked-on podcast network, your team every day. We'll be opening up the mailbag like we do here every Monday and answer some of your Mariners questions. We'll also be spending the wheel for our top five Tuesday topics at the end. So be sure to stick around for that so you know what's coming up tomorrow.

Starting point is 00:00:49 Before we get into your questions, shout out to our title sponsor today. FanDuel, new customers can place a $5 bet and you'll get started with $150 and bonus bets if you win your first $5 bet. Visit fandual.com to get started. And if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, check out our Patreon. All you have to do is click the link in the description of this episode. All right, let's get into your questions. We're going to start with Zach, who wants to know, instead of attaching a legit prospect to rid the money,

Starting point is 00:01:19 should the M's look to bad contract swap Garver or Hanager for a bounce back pitcher type, maybe Stephen Mats, to help with position player flexibility? Yeah, we talked about this. you don't necessarily have to, you know, attach a good prospect, and nor do we think you should to just rid yourself with the Hanager money or the Garber money. I don't like that idea. Just eat the money and, you know, deal with it later. But, yeah, if you can find us contract swap for either of these guys,

Starting point is 00:01:48 these are really the only two, the Mitches. You do that, sure, but, you know, it also has to make sense for your roster. And a guy like Garber, for example, If you trade Mitch Garber for an expensive number six starter, you know, you really don't gain much there. And now you need to go get a backup catcher because Garber at least serves that role as a backup catcher. Hanager is a little bit tougher. He's much more easier if you can find a contract swap. Yeah, like you would absolutely rather have a sixth starter that you stashed in the bullpen all year than, you know, fifth, sixth outfielder.

Starting point is 00:02:25 But Hanager has less trade value. Andy's more expensive than Garber. So, you know, it's one of those things where like, yeah, if you can find it, great. I don't necessarily love the idea of Stephen Matt's. But yeah, if you're really trying to swap out money, you know, and you're looking for a player who can help you more. Does a six starter slash long reliever in the bullpen help you more than a backup catcher? No, probably not because, again, you still have to go get a backup catcher.

Starting point is 00:02:56 this would be a different topic of like Harry Ford was major league ready and we knew that he was going to be ready for the opening day roster. We don't. And so, you know, it's like, would you rather have Mitch Garber? Do you want to try Sebbis of All again? Like at least Garber hit lefties a little bit. At least Garber has power, you know, and Garber has at least a shot to kind of rebound and be more than just a backup catcher. So you have to be careful here about who you're trading, who you're swapping, like what position you're swapping for. Hanager is tough.

Starting point is 00:03:26 I think the way you can move Hanager is not necessarily as part of a bad contract swap, but as more of a, you know, to cut the cost of a bigger contract. A tool to balance out the money. Yeah, you're not going to trade Mitch Hanager for a one-for-one contract swap. I just don't think that exists. But could you trade him plus prospects for someone that's making money like Rizzoa Glacius or Boba Schett, maybe? Yeah, I mean, maybe or maybe it's like, just throw this out there.

Starting point is 00:03:59 It's like Nolan Aeronado, like don't love the idea. He's due a lot of money. But, you know, maybe if you attach Mitch Hanager to that deal, then all of a sudden, Aronado's only making $6 million this year. And then I don't know, maybe the Cardinals eat half with the rest of the money that are owed to him and they paid all the deferred money, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, right? It's stuff like that, like where it's like, hey, Hanager can take a chunk out of it. So like, here's this $20 million player.

Starting point is 00:04:23 this team wants to move on from. Well, we'll trade you Hanager in the deal. So we only have to pay three million more. But because you're taking on salary, here's some prospects to kind of offload it. So I think that's the only way you're moving Mitch Hanager in a trade. Garber, yeah, there's probably a couple of arms. I've mentioned John Gray before. So yeah, Garber.

Starting point is 00:04:45 But then again, you have to find the backup catcher. So yes and no is the answer to the question. Like, yeah, you should consider that. you should look at that. It's probably not feasible for Hanager. It's that specific just one for one contract swap. It's more feasible for somebody like Garber because he is a better shot to bounce back. And he has value on the roster as it's built right now.

Starting point is 00:05:08 Code wants to know. Let's get this out of the way early. Should the mayor consider signing Blake Snell and trading a starter away this winter? Well, considering that he was on his hands and knees, essentially begging the Mariners to sign him last winter, especially at a point where he was going to sign a very reasonable deal that would have opt-outs like the one that he wound up signing with the Giants and the mayor still said no I'm going to assume that they're going to say no again this winter when he's probably going to get a more long-term contract yeah the answer is no and also side note Blake's Nell missed time again he's over 30 years old I still have the same concerns about him as I did last winter if if nothing else last year proved why the Mariners were like, no, just not that interested. He's not durable.

Starting point is 00:05:57 He's not dependable. He's pretty good when he's out there. He was amazing. Yeah, for a while. It's okay, cool. If he's going to be out there for 100 innings, 120 innings at most, like how valuable is that really? It's not. Not to the Mariners, not to a team that's, you know, really trying to crunch their budget,

Starting point is 00:06:17 unfortunately. So no, there's no chance. They're trading a starter to sign Blake Snow. No. Nope. Yeah. If it wasn't going to happen last winter, it's certainly not going to happen this winter. Nope.

Starting point is 00:06:26 I don't know. Yeah. All right. So we are going to get into more of your questions here in just a moment. But first, a reminder, this episode of the Lockdownerror's podcast is brought to you by Fandool. Get ready to tackle the NFL action with Fandul, America's number one sportsbook, because right now new customers can bet $5 and get $150 back in bonus bets if you win. The Fandul Sportsbook app gives you everything you need to place live bets on the

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Starting point is 00:07:12 Never waste a hunch and make every moment more with Fanduel, an official sportsbook partner of the NFL. And you're listening to the Locktime Marries podcast. Yes, it is Mailbag Monday. We are answering your Mary's questions. And at the end of the show, we'll be spinning the wheel for our top five Tuesday topics. So be sure to stick around for that. Next question today comes from Christopher, who wants to know thoughts on a potential Devin Williams trade.

Starting point is 00:07:38 So Devin Williams had his club option declined by the Brewers a couple days ago. That makes them ARB 3 eligible now. He's projected to make about $8 to $9 million. as opposed to the, I believe, $10.5 million that he was supposed to make via that club option. So the brewer's probably looking to trade him. But for me, I look at some of the other expensive reliever options out there. I'm like, why not just trade for one year of Ryan Helsley? Who's projected to make less than that, right?

Starting point is 00:08:12 Because I think at that point, at that dollar figure, Helsley is supposed to make $6.9 million, nice, as opposed to, you know, the eight to nine that Williams is supposed to make. I think the the difference there in talent is negligible. Yeah. Devin Williams is still really good. Yeah. But again, it might seem weird to be like, well, the Mariners might spend $7 million on a reliever, but they're not going to spend nine.

Starting point is 00:08:41 Like that might seem like such a small amount. But again, for the Mariners, for Jerry Depoto, for Jess and Hollander, unfortunately, that $2 million probably is pretty massive. And, you know, honestly, a guy like Kelsey is probably just best. better. But yeah, Devin Williams, like, I've, I've been long been an advocate and a supporter. And by that, I mean, last offseason and this off season of building what I can't say on this podcast, but what I will call it on this podcast is the screw you bullpen. The heck you bullpen. Yeah. It is a four-letter word. So, yeah, I even pitched that idea again this weekend. Like, I really like that idea. And to their credit, the Mariners did try last

Starting point is 00:09:23 year. They brought in Santos, right? And they had Spire and Brash and Munoz and you're like, yep, they're doing it. And they even brought in Stannock late. You're like, okay, they're, they want to do this. Unfortunately, Brash, Santos and Spire all pretty much missed the year more or less. I mean, Spire was up and down with his injury, but Santos only made eight appearances. Brash didn't make one. So they did try last year. They at least gave it an effort. It just fell apart on them pretty quick. but now with Snyder and Taylor, you know, kind of,

Starting point is 00:09:56 I don't say establish, but like in the mix a little bit, Muno's coming back. Santos should be healthy this winter. You hope Brash comes back at some point. We'll see what happens with Spire. Yeah. I mean,

Starting point is 00:10:07 like it does feel like if they get one more like Munoz level piece and then hope that Brash comes back in June, July or August, it seems like they could get there. So if the price is right, yeah, I would spend, you know, a decent prospect return to get another, a true high leverage reliever, not somebody you hope can pitch in high leverage spots.

Starting point is 00:10:32 Yeah. So I'm still interested in that. I just feel like. I think that's a really important thing for them to get the soft season, frankly. So they're not having to ride Munoz as much as they did this year. Yeah, the bullpen again, and you can sound like a broken record, this one, I can already tell. The bullpen was a problem last year. And I know people like to sweep it under the rug.

Starting point is 00:10:50 And they're like, oh, you know, it was really only in the last month. It's like, okay, but there's only six months in a season. So if your bullpen is a problem for a month, that's pretty massive. And a lot of those problems stem from guys being overused or pitching in roles that they aren't necessarily, you know, their stuff doesn't play in. Like, Colin Snyder should not be your number two leverage option. And he was for most of this year out of necessity, right? You shouldn't have to ask Andres Munoz to get five, you know, five out saves 10, 11 times in a year because you don't have another high. leverage option that you trust.

Starting point is 00:11:22 So again, I'll continue to say this all winter. The Mariners need to address this bullpen and they don't necessarily need to address it with money, but they need to address it with effort. They need to make a conscious. Yeah, to improve this bullpen. And so, you know, they should be searching for another Gregory Santos. They should be searching for another Matt Brash. And that guy, maybe somebody we've never heard of.

Starting point is 00:11:43 So like, I'm not going to be like, oh, they didn't trade for Ryan Helsley. They didn't trade for Devin Williams. They didn't try and build this bullpen. I don't know. I didn't know anything about Gabe Spock. fire. I decided I like Colin Snyder after looking at his stat cast page once. And it was like, oh, the mayor should probably take a shot on that guy. And both of those guys worked out pretty well, at least for one full year. So yeah, it may not be a name we recognize, but the mayor is absolutely

Starting point is 00:12:05 need to try and find more leverage arms for this bullpen. And so if Devin Williams price is reasonable, fine. You do have to prioritize here a little bit. If $9 million on the reliever cost you, you know, an everyday second baseman, then you're out. I mean, you do have to kind of triage this a bit. But if you have the money, if you have the prospect capital that the brewers like, if you can find a deal that makes sense and it works within your budget, you absolutely should be interested in the guy like Devin Williams. Seattle John wants to know, Dillamore just won a gold glove as a utility player. His value may never be higher. Could it be a valuable addition to a trade package this winter? Well, real quick, before we get into your question, congratulations to Cal

Starting point is 00:12:45 Raleigh and Dillamore. I went in gold gloves. That's pretty incredible. I mean, I think Cal was certainly expected, but Demo, I didn't expect him to win that thing. So that's pretty cool. So congratulations to both of them. Obviously, I, you know, I remember the first thing that hit me when I saw that he won gold glove was the memory of that first game that he played against the Red Sox. What is that? He's at third base.

Starting point is 00:13:10 He makes a three and second event. Dillmore has come a long way, let's just say. And then Brock Rodin also won minor league gold glove at second base. which is pretty cool because they only give those for it doesn't matter the level right it's just just one per position in all minor league baseball yeah so that's really cool that's really dope too so congratulations bro yeah uh so has demos trade value increased or improved now that he's become a gold glover and could he be a valuable addition to a trade the answers are no and yes like no his value isn't more than it was yesterday in a trade package but could he be a

Starting point is 00:13:56 valuable piece in a trade i mean like a headliner no not for anything significant but could he be like a second or third piece in a deal that pushes it over the top where the mergers can maybe add impact uh by giving up dillam more to be you know a utility guy for this team in a prospect uh you know like yeah i mean you could the thing you have to keep in mind there is that if you do trade dillamore you have to get a new utility man uh one who could play shortstop that's important that's the most important part there uh one who provides some offensive value because as annoying as it is to watch and play uh sometimes dillamore does provide some offensive value uh and you have to find that guy for less than i think dmo's making 3.8 this year in the last year of his contract not the easiest thing in the world to do uh so

Starting point is 00:14:43 uh yeah no his value's not that much higher or really any higher than it was before he won the gold glove. Yes, he would carry some value in a trade. So I guess technically that makes him a valuable trade piece. But I don't think any teams are like knocking on the mayor's door, being like, hey, what would it take to get Dylan Moore? You know, I don't think that's a conversation that's happening too much. And I will throw this in there to, you know, just it's a,

Starting point is 00:15:12 corollary question here. Somebody wanted to know. It's not in our hopper. because Ty, anyways. I forgot. I forgot. Yeah. Cal Raleigh. Somebody asked, does Cal Raleigh's Rabe number change now? Because he won the gold glove. The answer is no.

Starting point is 00:15:30 Yeah. He'll make a while. Sorry to ever ask that. I'm not sure who you were. Yeah, but I forgot to put. I bit to put your question in here, but I forgot. He's going to make around the 5.5, I think is what MLBTR, major league baseball trade rumors. I think they have them at 5.5.

Starting point is 00:15:46 he's going to make roughly that because Cal Raleigh being a great defensive catcher was already baked into that price already and the hardware isn't needed to confirm that Cal Ralee is a great defensive catcher so yeah he's going to make the 5.5 give or take 100,000 or so that's

Starting point is 00:16:02 what he's going to make regardless of if he won the gold glove or not. We're going to answer more of your questions here in just a moment but first a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Marries podcast is brought to you by game time so I used to live in New Mexico and down in New Mexico there are zero pro sports teams and a lot of bands and artists I listen to skip going there more often than

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Starting point is 00:17:33 Download game time today. What time is it? And you're listening to the Locked-on Maris podcast. It is Mailbag Monday. We are answering some of your Maris questions. We've got a few more to go over here. also figured out who asked the Cal Raleigh question. It was Jeff Holstein.

Starting point is 00:17:51 So, Jeff, thank you for your question. All right. Let's get into some of your final questions here. Scott wants to know, I know that Demo has been a great utility guy for the M's, but why not just make him the everyday second baseman for the M's? He's got great defense, and who knows, maybe some off-season bat work and every day at bats during the season will help to improve his offense.

Starting point is 00:18:11 First of all, the whole, who knows, maybe he puts in, you know, some work. do you think he hasn't worked the previous five, six years on a swing? Like obviously Dylan already puts in the work, right? To be a big league or all that stuff. We've heard nothing negative about his work ethic or anything like that. I mean, do you think you can go to drive line and become an everyday player? Because as we've talked about, that's not a silver bullet, right? You just don't go to drive line and everything's fixed.

Starting point is 00:18:36 Taylor Tremel went to drive line. Ty Francis Lowe. Yeah. So like, you know, I don't think it's just a matter of him putting in a little bit more work. this winter to fix anything. Dylan Moore, might surprise people. He had 441 plate appearances last year. That's pretty much an everyday player.

Starting point is 00:18:56 Like more or less, that is a, like, that's a strong side platoon player. Like, if you get over 400 plate appearances, you're, you know, more or less an everyday player in context, right? So, especially in today where there's a lot of platoon. So Dylan Moore played a tonne last year, and he still only hit 201, 3101, 3.4. 320, 367. We know who Dylan Moore is. He is going to strike out.

Starting point is 00:19:21 He is going to draw walks. He is going to swing very hard and very violently. As a result, he's going to have some power. He does have pop. We know that he's going to hit some home runs. We know he can play all over the field pretty well. We know that he can steal bags. He's a very good base dealer.

Starting point is 00:19:39 We know these things about Dylan Moore. The unfortunate truth is that we also know is that Dylan Moore is not an everyday major leaguer and he never will be. It's not going to happen. It is too inconsistent. The swing is too grouped. He would have to completely overhaul his swing in one winter. And then the Mariners would have to trust that his completely new swing that he developed

Starting point is 00:20:01 over one winter would be enough for him to play every single day and not have these peaks and valleys. Because Dylan Moore, every single year, we see this, right? It gets super hot for two or three weeks. The Mariners start to use them a little more. or more and then all of a sudden he goes straight downhill. Because he's not an everyday player. He's a solid role player. He's a very

Starting point is 00:20:19 good role player. And he is a valuable member of your team. Just not in an everyday capacity. He's not going to go away for the winter and come back and be an everyday hitter because he's been able to do that. He's had the opportunity to do that for the last six years,

Starting point is 00:20:35 six, seven years now. He's been with the Mariners. And he's not capable of it. Like Dillamore is who he is, which is a valuable big leaguer. and you should be very happy that you have Dylan Moore. In fact, after this next year, you're going to have to go find a new Dylan Moore. And that's going to be a really underrated, you know, goal of the Mariners is to replace Dylan Moore.

Starting point is 00:20:54 Maybe it's Brock Roden who we talked about. But it's not easy. Dylan Moore's a good player. He's a valuable player. He is not an everyday player. He's not going to drastically change who he is. He's going to hit in the low 200s. He's going to have an on-base percentage, probably 100 plus points higher than his batting

Starting point is 00:21:10 average. and then the slug we'll see. He could slug in the right circumstance. If he build a right roster around him where he doesn't have to be the guy, you know, every time somebody else gets hurt, then he might slug 450. Like he's got that power.

Starting point is 00:21:25 But he might, if you overuse him, he's probably going to slug under 400. He's going to steal 25, 30 bags and he's going to hit 10, 12 home runs. Like valuable player, not an everyday player. Ross wants to note,

Starting point is 00:21:35 do you think the batters I will be fixed? While I don't think it's the problem, the fact that it's so out there after Teo, is a problem. We need to attract free agent hitters and we don't need one more thing in our players' heads. It would be sad if ownership didn't even try to fix it. I believe Ryan Divish said

Starting point is 00:21:51 I don't know if it was on Marine Lair or Jason Puckett Show. I don't think it was on our show when we had him on. That is something he expects to be addressed this winter. So yeah. Yeah. I don't think that addressing it is going to help you

Starting point is 00:22:07 sign a free agent this winter though. No, no, no. Players are going to have to see it with their own, you know, their own eyes and they're going to have to, there's going to, it's going to be a couple years even after they fix the batter's eye before people will start to be like, oh, okay, so you can't hit a team old part. And that's if the batter's eye is actually the problem. That's assuming that actually leads to some sort of offensive success that we can see. And we can like go, well, there's the obvious difference like the, you know, pre-batters I change and then post-batters-I change. Like the offensive numbers are so significantly better.

Starting point is 00:22:39 Yeah, it's like if they change the batter's eye, but they also get like Brent Rooker and Jose Ramirez. It might not be fair to be like, oh, the batterers eye fixed everything. Like, no, I guess at that point,

Starting point is 00:22:49 you would look at road team numbers. I guess, but you know what I mean? It's like, do you think they'll try to address the batters eye, whether or not they'll do a good job of it? I don't know, whether or not it'll make a difference.

Starting point is 00:23:01 I don't know whether or not it will help attract free agents. That I do know. This year, absolutely not. Maybe in a couple years, maybe. All right. Last question of the day.

Starting point is 00:23:11 comes from the Mariner Maniac. I know Colby's going to love this question. Nice burner, Ty. Yeah, yeah, right. Why is Ty a Seattle fan? From what I can gather, he has lived in New Mexico and the Toronto area. Did he grow up in Washington? We'd love to hear your life journey while you live in Canada, etc.

Starting point is 00:23:29 I'm not going to give you my life journey on today's episode. My wife lives here. That's why I live in Canada. Very short to the point. That's why I live in Canada. I was born in Washington, though, and I lived there for the first 12 years of my life. I moved to New Mexico, eventually moved up here. There you go.

Starting point is 00:23:44 But, yeah, it was born and raised, Mariners fan, Seahawks fan, Sonics fan, etc. All right. So as you can see, we only have four options on the Mariners wheel, the serious wheel. We still really need to come up with a better name for this. So we're going to come up with more topics later. But, yeah, we're spending for me. It's my turn to tackle one of these topics. And the lovely sound effects are playing, folks.

Starting point is 00:24:11 looks like top five concerns top five concerns hmm I feel like we already did that one no you did top five regression candidates right right optimism so yeah I did top five reasons to be optimistic

Starting point is 00:24:29 so now top five reasons to be concerned about the mirrors tie gets to be his true pessimistic self that's right baby that's right so yeah so there's there's my topic all right let's spend the wheel for yours call me so now we are at the silly non-mariners wheel

Starting point is 00:24:46 even though there's mariner's topics on this again we need better names for this if you guys have ideas let us know in the comments below so let's see what Colby's going to be talking about tomorrow maybe we should merge the wheels because then there's a chance that we get like two silly topics and it's like are we going to be able

Starting point is 00:25:05 to make a whole shout out of that best pitches in major league baseball current current current yes the best pitches not pitchers pitchers yes

Starting point is 00:25:18 will any mariners make an appearance I mean one should even though he hint had missed all of 2024 so there you go we have our topics we'll be talking about those tomorrow top five reasons to be concerned

Starting point is 00:25:34 about the mariners coming from me and then top five pitches in major league baseball coming from Colby that's going to do it for our show before we get out of here a reminder that Lockdown has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube. Now it's also available on Amazon Fire TV and the free Fire TV channels app. Lockdown Sports Today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of Lockdown.

Starting point is 00:25:57 Plus our national shows covering every league. Find Lockdown Sports Today now available on the free Fire TV channels app. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marrars podcast for Colby Patnode. I'm Tiding Azzalus. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L.O underscore Marers. You can follow me at Tiding Azzalus and Colby at C-Pat 11. P-A-T-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.

Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Why the Mariners Will Yet Again Pass Up on Signing Blake Snell This Winter

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