Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Why the NEXT BIG TRADE Between the Seattle Mariners and Cincinnati Reds Could Be Coming SOON

Episode Date: July 23, 2026

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The Cincinnati Reds and Seattle Mariners have been natural trade partners many a time. So why change things now? You are a locked on MLB crossover. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Your team every day. I'm Jeff Carr from Lockdown Reds. He's Tyne Gonzalez from Lockdown Mariners. And today's episode is brought to you by O'Doo.

Great organizations win because operations matter. And that's why you should get Odu. Try for free today at odu.com slash locked on. That's ODOO.com slash lockdown. A little bit later on, we'll look at the rest of the season for both the Mariners and the Reds. There's one key caveat in all of that because one of us is competing for a playoff spot. The other is in Cincinnati. In just a few minutes, we'll talk about why both teams are basically Spider-Man means of each other.

Both organizations, again, key difference in 2026. But we will start. with the trade deadline because this year's deadline is going to be very interesting as the Cincinnati Reds are one of like two and a half teams that have called themselves sellers at this point. And I don't believe that changes with the series win. I know that the Reds did just take two out of three. But the Reds have to go on a run that like even the Boston Red Sox would go, oh, wow, nice winning street for them to get back into this thing by at this point.

And so looking at the trade deadline, the Reds are going to be sellers. the Mariners have a good shot at least going for the AL West, if not an AL Wildcard spot. So when it comes to where the Reds stand with the Mariners, who are you most looking at for them to go get time? Yeah. So it's fascinating because even with the series lost today to your Reds, which now puts the Marrars back under 500 by a game, the Rangers won't let them die. The rest of the American League won't let the Mariners die. So while the Mariners are honestly not that much better than the Reds and the standings right now, like I think it's like a five game difference, I believe. The Mariners are obviously in a much better position than the Reds.

And the Marys are most likely, unless things go really sideways here over the next week and a half, they're probably going to be buying. And I think pretty aggressively at the deadline. And I think the Mariners and the Reds specifically line up. pretty well. There are quite a few names here that I wanted to ask you about. I got a list of five guys here that I want to ask you about that. I think our listeners are really curious to hear about as well. Some of these guys we've been asked about when we do our fan fiction Friday episodes. I see a lot of Spencer Steer trades. So let's start with him here. Spencer Steer,

who he's a super utility man, right, Jeff? He's an everyday super utility man, correct? right he can play all these different a field second base he'll tell you he can play shortstop he's played third base he's best at first and and I think

in fact give me your assessment because I'm pretty sure I know what you're going to say yeah so look even if he is just a first base DH type right the Mariners and obviously the mayor has Josh Naylor locked up for for a long time here

the Mariners need to be better against left-handed pitching. They have been by far the worst offense in all the baseball against left-handed pitching. They need to give themselves a better shot against lefties. And they have a couple of guys that they can very easily platoon with, specifically Luke Rayleigh in a DH role. So like steer still makes a lot of sense for the Mariners. And, you know, looking ahead his splits this year against lefties

if Fangraphs wants to comply here as we're recording. steer has a 184 WRC plus against lefties. So that would be a very ideal fit here for the Mariners. But again, because of the limitations, because he is a weak side platoon bat, because he is mostly a first base DH type, despite all the places that he has logged innings at this year, I do think there would be a limit on what the Mariners would be wanting to spend on him. That's going to be the interesting part about all this,

is that I think the way that Nick Crawl and the Reds front office value Spencer Stier, it's going to probably mean he isn't traded. And Steve and I have talked about this on Lockdown Reds, as recently as just yesterday, in fact, that there is a chance that the Reds could field some sort of bidding war for Spencer Steer because right-handed bats are at such a premium right now, and I don't think that there's going to be a ton available. But at the end of the day, I think you're right.

I think like if Jerry Depoto were sitting on the other end of the phone, or if the Reds were talking to the Phillies and Dave Dombrowski, if they were talking to the Guardians and whoever it is that's running that ship and they're really good at their job, they're all going to be asking for a certain price that Nick Carl, I don't think is going to be interested in because if I were looking at a Spencer Steer deal and I had the decision to make on it, it's going to be a guy that I think can really help out next year.

and probably not a guy who has yet to make his debut. So probably looking at a major league caliber player that's ready to go. I don't know if that's Victor Robles. And that probably sounds ridiculous as far as an asking price right now. That's probably what they're. I mean, I think it would be ridiculous for the Reds to want, honestly, because Robles is, he's at the end of his contract. The Mariners aren't going to pick up that option year that he has for, I believe, $8 million. He's been below, you know, replacement level as a hitter. Still a good defender.

You know, and when he does get on the bases, he can make some things happen. But as we all know, you can't steal first base. So, yeah, he just hasn't been able to hit much. I know he had a pretty good series this week against your Reds, including a game where he went four for four, but it was kind of a cheap four for four. We all saw the Caleb Ferguson thing with Bill Miller and that hit. So, you know, yeah. So that, you know, I think Victor Rubles, just my assessment, if you guys want Victor Robles for Spencer Steer, I think the Bears would be like, yeah, sure, man, take them.

Awesome. So a knit crawl deal is what you're saying. Yeah, exactly. But, you know, if you're looking for someone with maybe a little bit of Major League Seasoning who, you know, has kind of maybe fallen out of favor with Mariners, maybe Ryan Bliss is someone that, you know, because they acquired him a couple of years ago in the Paul Seawall deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He was one of the more main pieces that they were bringing back in that deal. And for a little while, they did try him out as their everyday second baseman.

They gave him that opportunity at the start of 2025. Unfortunately, he, I believe he tore his peck. I think that was the injury that he sustained. Or maybe it was a bicep injury. I can't remember exactly. someone will absolutely correct me in the comments below. But, you know, he basically missed all of 2025 last year. And he's been down for a little while this year.

But he has been red hot since getting back into action down in Tacoma. And I think he has like seven multi-hit games in his last like 10 games. There's something crazy like that. He's just on fire right now. Obviously, it's Tacoma. It's the PCL. So who knows? but maybe Ryan Bliss is someone that the Reds would be interested in there.

Maybe not as the headliner in this deal, but certainly someone to at least round out a package. Yeah, that's going to be an interesting thing as to how the Reds attack this deadline. Because I just believe that it's got to be to get next season better. It can't be to get two or three seasons better, unless you are talking about a relief pitcher, in which case, if they're not tacked on to a deal that, includes a Spencer steer or somebody else like that.

I think we're probably talking about a guy that's a couple of years down the road. Like if the Mariners are looking for a guy like Caleb Ferguson or like Pierce Johnson or Brock Burke or somebody like that, obviously the asking price is not going to be, you know, rhymeless or something like that. But it could be somebody who is speculative and, you know, ultimately the Reds just need to get better for the future because the president just doesn't look like it. So there's a couple other bats that I want to ask you about here very quickly. Dane Myers is a guy that I've had my eye on since he was in Miami.

If I remember correctly, pretty good defender down in Miami. I'm not sure how well he's done defensively in Cincinnati. But obviously another right-handed bat, outfielder, and, you know, can play all three spots. That would probably be someone the mayors would be interested in it. But with all of his club control, I'm kind of curious, like, what the cost would be on him. And then obviously, Gino.

I know it's been a struggle for him this year. But again, the Mariners could use some better vibes, frankly, in the clubhouse. And there's no one who brings better vibes than Ehuhenio Suarez. That's right. Good, good vibes only. Don't forget it. And I know, like, yeah, he's been almost worth, like, a negative full win by Fangraph standards this year.

But, like, right-handed bat. You obviously know him. He's loved dear. in Seattle and everywhere that he's played obviously. So I'm sure there would be some level of interest there. But I am curious if maybe the Reds would want to hold on to him just for, I don't know, sentimental purposes maybe. I don't think so.

He's got a mutual option for 15 million. I don't think anybody's picking that up. But I think that what could have been with Ehuyaheño Suarez is Althador. And the Reds are probably going to. to be looking to trade him to anybody that's looking to make a deal. He has looked better recently. Like if you put a microscope up to what his last month has been, it's looked better than the rest of the season.

But the rest of the season has just been that bad. He's really had a low baseline to how he has performed this season. He's not been the power bat that we expected to come in here and not necessarily anchor the lineup, but be your fourth or fifth guy that really provides that power. It's just not been that guy. and they've tried to get that to work and it hasn't happened. I think it's likely that they would just about take any offer for a Eugnio at the moment, get him to a contending team because he deserves that.

And then, you know, say thank you again for coming on back. I hate the fact that the reunion tour is just about thanks for the memories, but that's kind of where we are right now. Dave Myers, on the other hand, is interesting because you're right. Like the extra year team control for me might make this a hard sell. he's not a guy that's getting rumored a lot, but that doesn't mean that he's not available because this Reds team likes to keep things close to the best.

In fact, my theory has been that the reason we've heard Spencer Sear and Hunter Green and guys like that in different trade rumors is because Nick Crawl's like, glad you called about them, can I interest you, and a nice shiny Tyler Stevenson. Or how about a Caleb Ferguson for your lefty out of the bullpen? I think that there's a little bit of let's just talk. and then we'll talk about who's really available as opposed to

are they going to move guys with team control? Yeah. And then lastly, just a couple of guys out of the bullpen because the mayor is do need bullpen help. They have been decimated by injuries on the bullpen. They are hoping to get healthier here in the coming weeks. Matt Brash, hopefully back before the end of August,

Cooper Criswell as well. But my guess is, and there's some thought that maybe they'll go, you know, big time shopping here in the relief market. Maybe Mason Miller is a real possibility. for the Mariners here in the coming weeks. But I can also see them, even if they do go out and they get a Mason Miller or they get a Luke Waver, maybe getting another like complimentary bullpen arm as well.

And so there's a couple of guys that I have my eye on here. Emilio Pagan, who obviously has had some great struggles this year and he's making a little bit of money. I'm not sure how realistic that would be for the Mariners or how realistic their interest would be in him. But he's someone that obviously came from the Mariners organization. They are like fairly familiar with him. and he has been, you know, he has had some success in the past. And maybe that's a guy that they see and they think that they can fix here in the coming weeks.

And then T.J. Anton, who's got, I believe, one year left of club control after this year. I think he's ARB three, correct? Yeah. And all of the, all of the good feels around T.J. Anton is going to make it hard to see his name on deadline day, but the good fields don't add to the price tag. Like, I think any of these relief pitchers probably bring back a low-level prospect. if they were by themselves. Even Emilio Pagana. Emilio Pagana actually has an option for next year,

but it's a player option for $10 million. So that might actually change how negotiations go with that one. Because he would be getting paid like a closer, even though I don't necessarily think he is. But I thought it was a club option, to be honest. Yeah, with the player option, that's probably a dead mission at that point for the Mariners. Yeah, I think he's sticking here for no other reason

that I don't think any other team is going to meet any sort of asking price for a guy that they might be stuck with for two. But I know this. These two organizations link up for quite a different, quite a bunch of reasons. And honestly, there's one advantage that the Mariners have over the red legs that we'll discuss. Running a business shouldn't feel like you're just trying to connect a bunch of systems that were never designed to work together anyway. There's one app for accounting. There's another for inventory. there's another for sales and somehow none of them talk to each other.

That's where Odo comes in. Odo is an all-in-one business management software that brings every part of your business together in one powerful platform. From sales and accounting to inventory and marketing, everything works together in one place, helping your team move faster, stay organized and keep growing the business instead of just managing software. I mean, when we think about the organizations that work the best, they are aligned. from top to bottom. It feels like there's one central idea that keeps the organization moving forward.

And as we always say, we hope that the Reds will get there someday. So when you're looking for your organization to grow and stop just managing software, become a great organization with O-Doo. They win because operations matter. And that's why you should get O-D-O-D. try for free today at odoo.com slash locked on that's odo.com slash locked on. Thank you for making lockdown Reds and Lockdown Mariners part of your day and making it's your first listen.

However many listens you make us, we invite you to subscribe because we've got you covered whether it's Reds or Mariners talk all throughout the year as we head through the trade deadline, as we head toward the playoffs, whatever that looks like. We're right here for you every single day. And I think it's the Mariners that are going to be talking a lot more about the playoffs like you mentioned they are much closer to the al west they are much closer to the a l wild card than the reds are and there's a lot of analysis that was done for the reds made

the playoffs last season they made the playoffs because the meds collapsed the reds put themselves in a position to make the playoffs but they needed that collapse from the met's to get there on this side now the mariners have an american league where no one has taken control. Quite frankly, I think that the Mariners are more talented than their win-loss record would say right now. I think that there's a chance. And you might disagree with me.

You might agree with me. I don't know. There's a chance that that talent really starts to come through. And I think ultimately, that's something that really puts the Mariners well ahead of the Reds in this comparison. But when I was texting with you about setting up this crossover, you asked, do the Reds have a lot of players that have trouble staying healthy? and do they have a lot of guys that just can't seem to consistently perform the fundamentals?

And I said yes and yes. And so that's where we are. Yeah. Yeah, this team has not been able to stay healthy. You know, their biggest acquisition in the off season, Brendan Donovan has been gone for like three months now. You know, Cal Raleigh has missed significant time. Julio just missed a considerable amount of time with a concussion.

Randy or Rosamorana had landed on the aisle for a little. a while with a hamstring thing, so on and so forth. Like so many injuries, I mentioned the injuries on the bullpen as well. Matt, you know, they have been without Matt Brash. They've been without Cooper Chriswell. They have like four guys that they really trust in their bullpen and then four guys where it's yikes city. So, you know, it's just right now for this team, it's all about just trying to stay afloat

until the trade deadline where you, where it still makes sense to go out and buy. And thankfully, the American League. has made that very possible. I think the biggest difference, actually, between the Mariners and the Reds, is that the Mariners play in the American League, the Reds play in the National League. And the National League is way better this year

than the American League is. Yeah, especially the AOS. The AOS is a joke. I don't know how many hockey fans we got watching, but the American League West saw what the Pacific Division did this past year in hockey and said, hold my adult beverage. And yeah, it's been,

it's been rough to watch. It is, it's been a classic mid-off between, you know, for a while, four teams. Then the A's have really fallen off as of late. Now it's been kind of three teams. The Astros have kind of not gone away, but they're also really not all that competitive right now. So it really does feel like a two-horse race between the Mariners and the Rangers. And these teams like, whenever one team loses, they also lose on that same day. Whenever one team wins, the other team wins on that same day.

They're just kind of in lockstep with one another. And both of these teams just refuse to leave the 500 market. It has been very frustrating. But like you said, the thing that still gives the fan base optimism in the Marinersphere. And what I think gives the organization itself quite a bit of optimism, again, is that they haven't been able to get all these guys healthy and playing together at once. and a lot of guys have performed well under expectations, especially Cal Raleigh, who I think at this point,

I think it's fair to say, is having one of the greater hangover seasons than the history of Major League Baseball. He has, his WRC plus has gone down by almost 100 points from last year. You know, we all expected regression from Cal Raleigh, you know, just he wasn't going to hit 60 home runs again, you know? Like hardly anyone has ever hit 60 home runs.

runs in a season. That's what made last year so special. It may have been the greatest catcher season of all time. At the very least from an offensive standpoint, it was the greatest catcher season of all time. And now he's basically 2021 Cal Raleigh who got sent down. It's bad. It's zero percentile outcome, Cal Raleigh. They were talking about this on the red side of the broadcast on Tuesday night, night after he hit the Grand Slam that was like, remember last year when the Reds and Mariners played in Cincinnati and cow rally went on a bit of a home run streak and then just didn't stop hitting home runs after that point yeah maybe the grand slam that the reds gave up on monday night

kind of ignites something for him and you know i guess kudos the tariffranconer for daring cow rally to come through in that situation i still i get it and i think i even said it that night i was just like i get it the big dumper is having a big dump of a season but you don't the bear yeah what he did like I was like how do you want the basis for this guy come on yeah and it's it's kind of funny how Terry Francona respects Dom Canzone against a lefty more than Dom Canzone own manager does like for the longest time this season despite Canzone being really good against lefties last year Dan Wilson refused to put him in against lefties for like the majority of the first half of the season he's finally started to do that and guess what I think Frankona mentioned

this post game he was like yeah that guy has like a 900 ops against against uh left hit of pitchers it's like yeah yeah like there you go that's what we've been saying all year long let this guy hit against some lefties but yeah i thought like i i get it but also like you said don't poke the bear and so i am hoping that that moment and specifically what led up to it the sheer level of disrespect shown to cow raleigh and what he did did on the very first pitch of that at bat. Hopefully that gets him going, you know, even if he could just be, you know,

40% better than what he is right now, which would essentially be a league average bat. That would be a massive shift in the right direction for this Mariners ball club. So hopefully we see it. But also, you know, at this point I think we're kind of desperate just for like any little positive moment from Cal to be the moment,

the turning point. So, you know, we'll only find out here in a couple weeks' time. I'd say he's probably one of the biggest reasons to look at the rest of the season for the Seattle Mariners, but I know that there are multiple other things that are going to be super important for the Mariners to make it back to the playoffs the rest of the year. As for the Reds, well, what comes next is it's time to figure out who some of these guys really are. A big thank you to Amazon for this limited break of this back-to-school season. spend less on your kids with Amazon. We all know how crazy back to school shopping can be. It starts with just a few items on your list and then all of a sudden you're shopping for

supplies and clothes and lunch gear and tech and about 10 other things that you didn't see coming. It adds up fast. The school supply list when you look at things for your kids each and every day, you initially know what you're going for and then all of a sudden your child decides that they need to tell you about this and that and all of the other things. And then all of a sudden, your first grader's got as much inventory as somebody who's traveling in the world. Shopping like this can get out of control if you're not careful. Or, you know, when school says that your child needs a calculator and headphones and a

tablet for class and somehow you're buying another one before the school year even begins, since when did kids need so much tech for school anyway? Remember, with Amazon's low back-to-school prices, you just spend less on your kids this year. Because every dollar you don't spend on them is a dollar you haven't spent on them. Shop back-to-school at Amazon and spend less on your kids. We encourage you to keep the conversation going with us after the show is over. You can follow me on social media over on X or on TikTok at Jeff Carr with three Fs. You can also follow Ty on X at Ty Dane Gonzalez, all one word, or over on Blue Sky,

at TDG.BSk.y. Dot. Social. All right. So when it comes to what's left, because we're going to hit the deadline here in a couple of weeks, and then it's all systems go down the stretch run for that playoff race. I'd say cow rallies probably is,

is cow rally the most important or is there something that's above him of getting him going? Well, I think there's a more general thing and a more immediate thing that we're all going to be watching here, especially pertaining to the trade deadline and pertaining to what the Mariners are ultimately can do at the trade deadline. You know, coming off of this homestan, and unfortunately, they did not secure a winning homestand, which I was hoping that they would do going up against two of the worst teams in the National League and the Giants and the Reds coming out, they all start a break.

Unfortunately, they only go 500 on that homestand. They're about to go play four against the Texas Rangers team that they're, you know, vying for first place with. And then after that, they're going to L.A. to play three against the back-to-back depending champion Los Angeles Dodgers. So things are about to get brutal. This is going to be a massive test for the Seattle Mariners. And obviously, you know, I alluded to this earlier.

Things go completely sideways here over the next week on this road trip. Then maybe the approach changes at the trade deadline. But also, as I said earlier, the Rangers won't let the Mariners die. So maybe, you know, maybe they split that four game series and then the Mariners get swept in L.A. But the Rangers also get swept in whatever series they're playing around that time. So who knows? But I think that's the big thing, the most immediate thing that we're going to be looking for. But yeah, individually speaking, yeah, it's Cal Raleigh getting him going.

It feels like the Reds have declared themselves sellers. And I don't think that, I mean, they said they're open for business. they're open to talk to anybody who's willing to listen as far as deals are concerned. I don't think Nick Carl has specifically used the word sellers, but basically, too, they are. And if they're going to change, that means they've got to hit a winning streak like right now. And I don't even think it's like winning series streaks. It's got to be like five, 10 games in a row.

If they think they're going to change their minds, I just don't see that happening. This thing was 20 and 11 after April. And they were in first place and it looked really good. And ever since then, they have just been bad. All aspects of the team. I mean, you always see these different posts. If you follow Thomas Nesico on X, he talks about, you know, Fangraphs, War rankings and all the stuff.

The Reds are dead last in Team War this year. They have better pitching than some, but worse hitting than everyone. And the run differential is not good at all. They're only a couple of games better than the likes of. of the Rockies, albeit they did just beat the Rockies, two out of three, but like, congrats, Bravo. That's not where they should be. They should be much higher than that.

They've just fallen into this malaise. And I, and I don't necessarily know that that's going to turn around. So what I'm looking for now is something we didn't see a lot of in this series. Something we haven't seen a lot over the last week is playing Noel V Marte every day. We got to figure out what this guy is. And I mean, kind of links in with what the Mariners know because he was former. Mariner prospect. Noelvie Marte once upon a time was a shortstop prospect of the Mariners system. He's played third base, right field and center field for the Reds. I don't think

he's played any games of shortstop, albeit he's not going to unseat Elliott of the Cruz there. But everywhere else he's played, I just, I haven't seen a moment where I'm like he belongs, even though he had like the moment of the year for the Reds last year when he robbed the Homer against Brian Reynolds and the Pirates. I remember that. That was phenomenal. But ever since then he's super inconsistent still takes bad routes, doesn't have the best arm accuracy from right field. Arm power is there. Arm accuracy isn't. So it's like, who is this guy?

The Reds have to figure that out. And they're not going to do that by playing them once every five days. It's just not going to work. And then on the other side of that, the other mariner prospect that they got in the Louis Castillo deal, Edelioro, needs to play second base every single day. Got to see who this guy is because we know that Matt McLean ain't it. and that's what the rest of this year is going to be. Let's figure out who these guys are.

After some of the trades go down, call up Hector Rodriguez. It's unfortunate that the year has turned to this, but now the Reds need to look to the future, and the future is not October. Yeah. It's unfortunate, especially after, you know, and I get it, it took a massive collapse from the Mets last year in order for you guys to get in and all that.

But still, like, you have that momentum getting in last year. you know, get to have that series against the Dodgers. And then, you know, you get out to the hot start. And then it just kind of all falls apart. It's very, very disappointing. And, you know, it's a bummer too, especially with, you know, how like Chase Burns, you know, how good Chase Burns has been this year. Obviously, I'm a big Andrew Rabbit guy.

You know, like they're obviously, I'm a big L.E guy. Like there's some real, like, legitimate pieces on this club that, you know, I think Reds fans should be very excited about what the, you know, hopefully the immediate future or not. not the immediate future, but the near future holds for this club. But, yeah, disappointing season for you guys, unfortunately. And that is where we will end today's crossover. Thank you so much for checking out today's lockdown Reds,

lockdown Mariners crossover. We are covering both teams every single day. So make sure that should subscribe right here on YouTube or on your favorite podcast app. And also make sure you go check out Lockdown MLB. They got three different shows covering the league from three different angles every single day. So you know you get everything you need to know about. major league baseball. But as for Ty and myself, we will be talking at you tomorrow about the M's and the Reds because we are part of the lockdown podcast network, your team, every day.