Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Will It Be 'Sonny' in Seattle?

Episode Date: December 9, 2021

The Mariners lost two and gained three (before trading one) in the minor league Rule 5 draft, are reported to have made a formal offer to free agent Trevor Story and may have been on the verge of acquiring Reds RHP Sonny Gray prior to the lockout. Hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode cover that and more on this episode of Locked On Mariners.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome to Locked-on Mariners, your home for Daily Seattle Mariner's News and Analysis. Thank you so much for making us your first listen of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. Of course, today is Thursday, December 9th, 2021. I am your host, Tadian Gonzalez, joined as always by my co-host Colby Patnode. Follow us on Twitter at L0-U- underscore M.

Mariners. You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez. It's D-A-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-P-A-T-1-1. Be sure to also check out our Patreon where we talk about the Mariners even more and also get into some non-baseball talk twice a week. Visit patreon.com forward slash control the zone for more information on that if you're interested. The lockout is, well, it's still going on. So nothing's really happening. However, yesterday was the minor League Rule 5 draft. The Mariners lost a pair of prospects and added three, though they ended up trading one of them because Jerry Depoto just can't help himself even amidst the lockout. We'll tell you who those players are and were.

And if any of them are interesting on today's show, we're also going to talk about Trevor's story. And we've also heard some things about some of the Mariners trade discussions leading into lockout. So we'll talk about that as well. If you like what you hear, give the show a follow or subscribe wherever you're listening to this we greatly appreciate it and we greatly appreciate your support so colby the rule five draft on the minor league side of things was still able to operate during the lockout because uh players who did not play at the major league level in 2021 are exempt from the lockout orio's selected

mariners right-handed relief prospect nolan hoffman whom they drafted three years ago in the same class as Logan Gilbert. They also lost Elvis Alvarado, who was acquired in the Roanis-A-Steel Alvarado. A converted outfielder, turned right-handed pitcher, hard-throwing right-handed pitcher, who just hasn't been able to

find the strike zone consistently. So any thoughts on either one of those guys and disappointed maybe about losing them, either one? Not really. You know, like they drafted Hoffman, in as a pure reliever, there's no chance he's a starter.

And if he drafted him in the same draft class as Logan Gilbert and a peer reliever is not really all that close to being major league ready, it's a bad sign. Let's say a college reliever who's not ready for the big leagues after three years, like not even sniffing it. It's really not that big of a loss. Elvarado is a fun arm. He throws very hard, but he can't throw strikes at all. So, yeah, it's, it's really those are not big losses.

Either of them are in the, your top prospect ranks. They're down in the 50s or 60s. And honestly, they probably shouldn't even be that high. You're hoping Alvarado would take a step forward, but he just hasn't. So, no, neither one is a huge loss. And, yeah, I hope they both get to the big leagues with their new club. But it's still very much a question. So the Mariners first pick of the Rule 5 draft was outfielder Tanner Kerwer,

25 years old from the Blue Jays organization. He reached AA this past season, spent half of the year at High A as well. There he slashed 285-4-24-74 with a 145 WRC plus, 25 stolen bases, and showed some power, went to AA, struggled a little bit, 208, 324, 333 with an 87 WRC plus,

but he did walk 12.8% of the time, struck out 27.1% of the time. And he stole 18 bases there as well. So the dudes got speed and has tapped into some power this year. What do you like about Kerwer? The speed, mostly. 43 stolen bases and 48 attempts. He doesn't strike out that much.

He's willing to take walks. He's a very CTZ type of hitter. You hope the power. is legitimate and maybe he's just starting to add that. But it sounds like it's dead pole power only. It's, it basically, it sounds like this guy is Braden Bishop,

just not nearly as good defensively. And yeah. So he's a minor league depth, basically, probably going to start the year in double A, in the year in AAA. Outside chance, he's a September call up,

because, again, if you can steal bases, you have value late in the season coming off the bench, somewhat similar to Terrence Gore. Now he's managed to not have an app at in like four years and still be a major league player. So, yeah, hopefully that's what's going on here. But hey, you know, maybe the Mariners see something in the swing and they think they can unlock even more power. And if that's the case, then you might have a bench bat here. in a year or at the end of the year. And so it's definitely worth the risk.

You can see why the Mariners would like him. He checks a lot of their boxes. They added another outfielder in the next round, Walking Cabrera, aptly named, who actually, you know, walked 12.8% of the time this year in the Complex League for the Rockies. Struck out just 18.9% of the time. Had six home runs there, 11 stolen bases,

252, 352, 460, with a 111 WRC plus. Since the pick yesterday, have you learned more about Cabrera, possibly? Anything else you could tell us about him? He lives up to his name,

and he does strike out some. So that is a concern. So he's whipping Cabrera, then. He is either walking Cabrera or whiffing Cabrera. But, I mean, this is, he's 21 years old. this is it's tools right there's a lot of loud tools here again the fact that he's already you know a pretty good judge of the strike zone and he does have some some really good power and speed raw power and a good speed combo you're this is a 21 year old that you're kind of

hoping to uh you know maybe there's a swing change maybe there's a setup change maybe there's a a hand placement or a stance change. And I think you're probably going to see him in probably Modesto with the hopes that he can work his way up to Everett. This is, it's an interesting name. It's more tools than than baseball player right now. But, you know,

these are the type of guys you can grab in the AAA Rule 5 draft. So I think Joe Doyle and a Prospects Live had him inside the Rocky's top 40. prospects. So interesting get, but nothing I would, I, I wouldn't put him inside the Mariners top 50 yet, but he's, he's interested. And lastly, in the third round of the Real 5 draft, the Mariners made their last pick. They ended up passing on the fourth round. They selected Tommy Wilson, right-handed pitcher out of the Mets organization, 25 years old, who's reached 96 with a fastball, and has flashed a plus change. But none of that matters. because a few hours after selecting him,

Jerry Depoto ended up trading him to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for cash considerations. Our favorite player. It's Colby. You know, Jerry DePoto just couldn't help himself whatsoever here. Despite not being able to make any official major league related trades, he still found a way to make a deal amidst this lockout. It's weird to take a guy and then probably trade him for like 25 grand,

50 grand, 100 grand. But hey, yeah. I mean, Jerry heard our cries for any kind of roster moves. And he's like, okay, I'll give you a roster move. It's just minor league free agent signings is what we were asking for, Jerry. So not quite.

I will take it. I will take anything that is new that is related to the Mariners because I am down bad. That's it for the, Rule 5 guys. Pretty interested in Curwer and Cabrera. Those are some interesting names, like you said, Colby. We'll see how it all turns out.

We're going to be talking about Trevor's story and where the Mariners left off with him before the lockout started last week. But real quick, want to remind you this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by Bet Online and a new sponsor of ours, Stance. Bet Online had you covered all season long with more props, odds, in lines than ever before as football continues the march to the playoffs. And bet online remains your number one spot for all the sports action as a whole this season. Head to our new updated desktop or mobile website to sign up today and receive your 50% welcome

bonus on your first deposit. Just use our promo code locked on. That's LOC, KED on to receive your bonus. From basketball, football, NHL, boxing, and UFC right to your favorite Vegas casino games. Don't wait to take advantage of all the amazing offers available for the 2021 season. Bet Online is the fastest and easiest way to bet on all your favorite sports. Bet online, where the game starts. Now I'm a sucker for some comfy holiday clothing,

but the designs and patterns used are frankly too common and boring for my taste. However, with Stance's products, I can feel good and look good during the holidays and all year round. Founded in 2009, Stance Apparel represents a radical reinvention of socks, underwear, and active apparel. With a sharp focus on comfort, quality, and creativity, stance brings in a typical aesthetic alongside some of pop culture's hottest collaborators for the ultimate in style and self-expression. Because everything you wear should be a direct extension of who you are and how you feel. About six or seven years ago, I got my first pair of stand socks on Christmas depicting the rain man himself, Sean Kemp, preparing to do what he did best.

Absolutely snatch the souls of those who dared stand in the pain against him. From Seattle sports to Major League Baseball, Star Wars, Marvel, The Office, and more, you can find apparel that represents you and what you love with Stance. They believe that the perfect fit matters more than fitting in, that those who feel good do good. So go see for yourself. Register for an account at Stance.com and get 15% off your first purchase. Use promo code locked on at checkout to apply. That's LOC, KED On. Enjoy the color and comfort of a life less ordinary with Stance. You're listening to Locked-on Mariners.

Thank you again for making us your first listen of the day. We greatly appreciate your support. So Colby, somehow, some way, for some reason, and this kind of attests to being down bad because of the lockout. Our good buddy, Jerry Savage to Poto, at Savage to Poto on Twitter. Listen to a full John Heyman podcast and actually got a nugget of information out of it. He was rewarded for dealing with that, for listening to a whole hour of that or whatever, however long it was. When Heyman himself reported that the Mariners made a formal offer to Trevor Story, the Rockies, well, now free agent shortstop, formally of the Rockies.

The Mariners have been pretty clearly tied to for a while now and seem to have a pretty big interest in him playing either second base or. or third base for them. So what are the concerns here with the contract and how do you feel about where negotiations might be between the Mariners and story and how they might pick up once the lockout ends? Nothing too surprising here. It certainly seemed like, you know,

before any of the lockout report, it certainly seemed like the Mariners were prioritizing story over Bryant, which is interesting. It's not something I necessarily agree with. There are some legitimate concerns with story. And, you know, a big part, a big part of it is that if he's not going to play shortstop, he's less valuable to you as a player because he's a good shortstop.

So if he's not giving you good shortstop defense, then giving you good defense anywhere else is downgrading his player value. He's also had an elbow issue that caused him to miss some time. So there's some concerns about his throwing. There are obvious concerns about him, you know, hitting a, from Coors Field. There's definitely a noticeable difference there. There's also, you know, he's not coming off a particularly great year. The numbers look pretty good, but again, you know, there's the Cores thing, and that leads

you to a 100 WRC plus. And it sounds like he wants five, six, seven years. And I don't want the Mariners to go six, even five years. I'm pretty hesitant on. So it sounds like the Mariners are very. interested. They are, I mean, they're consistently linked to him and now we know that they made him a formal offer. My guess is that it's somewhere close to the offer that they were going to make Marcus Simeon or that they did make Marcus Simeon. And I believe that's somewhere in the five-year

$120 to $125 million area. And that to me is really stretching it. based on the potential downside of Trevor's story. All right. I am officially activating the Colby say something nice about Trevor's story challenge. So what is the upside of Trevor's story here? What are some positives you're looking at with story, considering the fact that the Mariners are really interested in him? Dave Sims can have fun with his name when he hits a home run.

I mean, that's story time. Like literally, that's the home run. call. Time to read him a good night story at the walkoff home run. There you go. And for the record, Ty and I are definitely gave Simps stands. So you could leave your hate at the door. Simsy is a goat.

Yeah. Like you see, he's a good defender at shortstop. So if you have to move him to second base, he should be, you know, good there too. Might take a little while to get used to the adjustment. Um, third base, if the arm checks out, fine. His bat should play well enough at third base. I mean, his down year last year was 251, 329, 471 with 255 home runs, 24 home runs. And he stole 20 bags.

He's still a very good, uh, base runner, base stealer too. Um, look, he's a good player. And, uh, he's, you know, just turned 29 earlier this month or earlier last month. So it's not that he's over the hill or anything like that. It's just that there are some concerns that we're starting to see a decline, and that's troubling when you're going to give the guy five years. But no, he can hit for power. He's a good defender.

He can steal bases, which is something the Mariners need. Good overall base runner, not just aside from the bases. Career 112 WRC Plus, I think that probably surprises some people. like when I think Trevor's story just the name alone you're like oh that's like a 125 WRC plus guy he's really not he's only hit that mark once

and that was back in 2018 there are some strikeouts are about league average so he's not great but he's not bad and making contact look overall he's a good player and I would rather have him than not have him but five years

125 million and I'm guessing. I mean, he might want Javier his deal, and he's better than Baez, so he probably should. Assuming that he,

or that they do go six, or they have gone six on the offer, why go six on him and not go seven on Marcus Simeon? Well, you know, Simions a year older. I don't think the Mariners want to go six on anybody. So I would be pretty surprised

if they actually are willing to go six on story. Because like you said, if they're willing to go six on Trevor's story, aren't they at least willing to go six on Marcus Simeon? And the reports we have are that Seattle would not go six years. So, yeah, we know that they wanted Simeon over story. Like, that's not really up for debate. So to me,

I just don't see them giving story six years, like, at all. It's five years at this number or we're going to move on. And like I said, if I'm a story, I'm looking at Hobby Buy as this deal and I'm going, well, I'm better than that guy. So fork over the cash, you know. So maybe the AAVs enough. Maybe there's an option or a mutual option or a vesting option or something to make this work. And we've already seen that Jerry is willing to compromise on things that he has been hesitant to do in the past, like no trade clauses and opt-outs. So maybe there's a vesting option that Jerry can tack on at the end of this.

but yeah i just to me that's kind of the problem if i'm willing to go six years on story i should have been willing to go six years on simian i don't know that six year like if you offer simian simian six years that even work that gets it done but it i mean it definitely would have been a more competitive offer for for lack of a better term if that makes sense so um yeah it would be kind of puzzling to see them go six on trevor story Yeah, it just doesn't make a ton of sense. Like I get the age difference, but still, I just,

Simian is over the last three years. And obviously, you know, there's kind of a down year in between those, the two really big years for Simian. He's been a, you know, pretty much across the board, a better player than Story and probably has less downside, less caveats to him to his value because obviously the big one with story is the the arm issue the shoulder issue so yeah when i i just i i don't like if they if we see story get signed for for six years by seattle i'm going to be scratching my head a little bit here when it comes

to the simian situation when you know we're hearing from fine sand that they went five on simian and he ends up going for seven to sign with a team that's on a way worse trajectory than the Mariners. So you kind of figure that they would have some advantage there in negotiations with Semyon against the Rangers. But those two years matter. All that money mattered. So, yeah, it's just, it's really strange to me. This, you know, the idea here that the Mariners might actually be willing to go six. I just, I'll believe it when I see it.

And if it does happen, I mean, that's kind of a head-scratching thing for me. So Jerry Depoto talked about it about 24 hours before the lockout officially happened, that he was in the middle of a bunch of different trade talks. And we personally have actually heard something about at least one of those trade discussions that so happened to be with the Reds who have plenty of starting pitching to offer. And we were told, directly that the Mariners had a deal set up with the Reds for Sunny Gray. That was going to include Levi Stout and at least one other prospect.

So Colby, what do you think this may say about the status of Tyler Malley, Luis Castilla? Do you think that maybe the Mariners understand now that those two guys are probably a little too rich for their taste? Yeah, it's definitely possible. We've also heard that the Reds really love Brandon. Williamson. But if you're the Mariners and you're not willing to give up Brandon Williamson for any of those three guys, A, I think that's probably a mistake. I like Williamson too, but I mean, Castillo and Mallee are help right now and really good help. So first and foremost, if that's the case, I would think that would be a mistake. But, you know, if the Mariners really believe in Brandon Williamson and they think

Sunny Gray is pretty darn close to Mallee and Castillo, and honestly, he kind of is. There's not a huge gap there. And the difference is, you know, a package centered around Levi Stout, then that's certainly something that I understand why the Mariners would go that particular route. I like Levi Stout. He's a tier below Brandon Williamson, at least. And so if that is the case and there is, and we don't know what the other prospects are, or if it even is a prospect, maybe it was a player, we don't know. But if the deal is centered around Levi Stout, and you get Sunny Gray out of that, two years of Sunny Gray, that's a really good value for Seattle to snag there because Sunday Gray is, he's the number three. He's a legitimate number three, who sometimes looks like a number two.

And if you can get out of this offseason with Robbie Ray, Sunny Gray, Marco Gonzalez, Chris Flex and Logan Gilbert as your five, that's a really good rotation. that is a division winning rotation. You can win a division with that rotation. Obviously guys have to stay healthy, yada, yada, yada. And you still have to add, you should try and still bring back like a Tyler Anderson at that point or a Michael Panetta at that point. Bring back somebody, Chris Archer,

somebody who has some upside in case you need them. But yeah, that would be a really good deal. So I like it. I hope the report ends up being correct. But Sunny Gray is, he's right there with Mania and Bassett and Malley. I mean, he might be better than those guys. So I think he's a step below Montas and Castillo. But again, if the difference in price is that much,

you can totally understand why the Mariners might want to go to the Sunny Gray route. So Gray, of course, of A's fame, 135 in a third inning's pitch, 26 games. started last year for the Reds 1031 case per nine three three three walks per nine four one nine ERA three nine five he was worth two pretty much two and a half F four two point four F four yeah I I totally agree with you on the front that that that this would make them really strong in that rotation like that's that's a massive upgrade when you when you when you add Ray and gray to that yeah is is great not, you know, Castillo or Montes, sure, but he is a lot better than his numbers would

indicate, at least in terms of the ERA and stuff like that. He is fantastic pitcher. It would be an amazing addition to this rotation. His last full season before 2021 and 2019, he threw 175 in a third innings, 10, 52K per 9, 3, 49, walks per 9, with a 287 IRA, 3, 4, 2, he was worth four and a half wins that year. You know, I don't know, I don't think that you're going to be getting that guy exactly. You know, at least I wouldn't be banking on that. But that's kind of the ceiling with with Sunny Gray. Like he can be a number two.

You know, we always talk about number three is number two is number ones. What qualifies those guys. Sunny Gray is at least going to be a number three rotation and has the ceiling to be a number two. Yeah, he's a he's a three-win. pitcher. That's that's the floor, really, assuming health. And he's been relatively healthy. He only made 26 starts, but, you know, the year before, he made all 11 of his starts. In 2019, you made 31 starts. He's a pretty safe bet to give you 20 to 30 starts a year, which is, again, part of the reason why you need to go get a competent six, so you're not relying on Justin Dunn or

Justice Sheffield or Nick Mark Havages. But if Sunny Gray is the second edition that you made, your rotation, you had a very good offseason in regards to building a rotation because Gray is simply, he's good. I mean, there's really no way around it. I think he's only supposed to make $22 million over the next two years as well. So that's not an issue. It doesn't prevent you from doing anything else you want to do.

And, you know, we know that Jerry was in on Sunny Gray the last time he was traded from New York to Cincinnati. He even found a way to get involved in that deal. But he was absolutely in on the sunny gray market the last time around. So it would make sense that he would circle back and be interested again. Yeah, for sure. And he just kind of feels like a guy that they would love. Right. Like just with the way that he, you know, for life of a better term here, controls his own, right? Gray is an excellent fit. And like you said, you know, when you add him to the Robbie Ray deal, right? because in the buildup to this off season,

you and I looking at all of these starting pitching candidates for the Mariners, you know, we looked at, you know, maybe Sunny Gray is the guy that you get and you add a Tyler Anderson on the back of that, right? Like, just kind of thinking about realistically what they might do in the rotation. But having Sunny Gray as your second guy instead,

man, that's like, you really knocked it out of the park here. So to have, you know, Gray and Ray join Marco Gonzalez, Chris Flex and it also takes some of the pressure off of Chris Flexen to perform right because now you push them further down the rotation you know it takes some of the pressure off of Logan Gilbert who's going to be your five or four you know depending on what they do with flexin as well it's just it lengthens your rotation it raises the floor of your rotation and it raises the ceiling of your rotation ultimately and then you know you got guys coming up through the pipeline as well with George Kirby Brandon Williamson, maybe even Emerson Hancock factors in later on down the season. We'll see. But you're in a really good position if you're able to add someone like Sunny Gray to your rotation.

So hearing that they at least were fairly close on a deal heading into the lockout is encouraging. And it seems like, and we've been saying this for the last couple of weeks before the lockout even happened. that we're fairly confident that of the six pitchers that the A's and Reds combined are offering, the Mariners are going to get one of those guys. And so it seems like they are going to end up. That is going to end up being the case. Whenever we come out of the lockout, honestly,

I wouldn't be surprised if they were able to agree upon the parameters of the deal before the lockout happened. They just weren't able to file it to the league and get it announced and everything. So, hey, maybe, you know, lockout ends. Day one, we hear the Mariners have acquired Sunny Gray. It's certainly possible. So that's going to do it for our show today. Thank you so much for joining us here on lockdown Mariners for Colby Pat. I'm Ty Dan Gonzalez.

Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Dan Gonzalez. It's D-A-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-P-E-A-T-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. And thank you again for making us your first. listen of the day, just like you do here every day. We greatly appreciate your support. Join us tomorrow for Fan Fiction Friday. We're actually going to be recording that right after this show. So by the time you're listening to this, we've already recorded for tomorrow.

But while you're waiting for that episode, make your second list of the day locked on bets, your daily one-stop shop for all your gambling needs. Locked on bets hosted by your boy Q with expert analysis and insight from Lee Sterling. And just like us, their show is free and available wherever you get your podcast. So have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you tomorrow. Peace.