Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Article Reveals Drake Maye’s Surprising Ceiling/Floor Projection

Starting point is 00:00:00 An interesting, some would say ominous article about Drake May. That's where we start on this episode of Locked On Patriots. You are Locked On Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked On Podcasts network, your team every day. What's up, Patriots fans? I am your host, Nick Cattles, born and raised in New England, your New England Patriots expert, class is revealing itself. But first, a floor ceiling suggestion that might make your head spin. We appreciate you joining the show making us your first listen and for being an everyday or the lockdown Patriots podcast a proud part of the lockdown

Starting point is 00:00:58 podcast network, your team every day and a reminder, we're doing three shows a week Monday Monday, Wednesday, and Friday until Monday, July 14th. When we go back to a daily show Monday through Friday, I have high hopes for Drake May's second NFL season, I do believe he will be better this year than he was in 2024. But a pro football focus article came out over the past few days, it stopped me dead in my tracks. Now, this pro football focus article came out over the past few days. It stopped me dead in my tracks. Now this pro football focus article took a look at all the second year quarterbacks in the NFL looking at the top six guys. Of course, you know the names, Caleb Williams, Jaden Daniels, Drake May, and so on. And this article was written by John Cosco. And here's what he wrote in part. The Patriots unfortunately put one of the worst supporting

Starting point is 00:01:52 casts around May, so his projections moving forward really shouldn't change based on his performance in 2024. I agree with that. I think most of you would agree with that. It was so bad last year. The offensive line was so bad. The lack of weapons was so bad that it is truly difficult to gauge what Drake may is going to be in 2025 2026 and beyond from what happened in 2024. But then pro football focus, john Costco, I will call him Mr. Costco gave us his ceiling and his floor for Drake May.

Starting point is 00:02:30 The ceiling was Trevor Lawrence. The floor was Daniel Jones. Now let me start with the Lawrence ceiling. If you look at Trevor Lawrence, you could say there are some similarities to Lawrence and Drake May. You look at the arm. Both guys have very good arm strength, considered one of the best arms in college football when they were playing back in college. You could look at their athleticism, the athleticism of Trevor Lawrence, the athleticism of of Drake may you might even say that Trevor Lawrence is A bit more athletic than may is I don't even know if that's debatable. Maybe it is maybe it isn't

Starting point is 00:03:14 Then you look at the size Trevor Lawrence is six foot six Drake may is about six for both dudes around 220 pounds so the arm arm, the legs, the frame, the size, pretty similar to each other, which begs the question, how does pro football focus look at Trevor Lawrence? Because a lot of people are split on Lawrence. He's a pretty polarizing quarterback. Some people believe that he's still going to be a very good QB. Some people believe that he was overrated coming out of Clemson. And the class, when you look back at 2021, as we know, Mack Jones was a part of that quarterback class.

Starting point is 00:03:50 Everybody else makes Lawrence look terrific in comparison. But when you look at PFF and how they feel about Lawrence heading into 2025, they have Lawrence ranked as the 16th quarterback in the league. So smack dab in the middle. Thirty two starting quarterbacks day one of the season. Sixteenth is Lawrence. And here's what they wrote. The talent is undeniable, but he's yet to show the consistent high level play needed to elevate himself and the Jaguars into the NFL's elite. Now, it's it's tough to project Lawrence heading into 2025 because he only started 10 games

Starting point is 00:04:28 last year due to injury. But if you have Lawrence at 16, where do you think Drake may is? I'll tell you, PFF has Drake may ranked 22nd, heading into 2025. Here's what they wrote with variable taking over as head coach and upgrades around him. The number three overall pick from 24 is positioned to take a step forward in year two. I expect it, you expect it. One part of Drake May's game that we still haven't seen taken advantage of and I think we'll see it with Josh McDaniels is designed runs.

Starting point is 00:05:01 The run impact from your quarterback. Lawrence has had some of that in Jacksonville I believe may will have some of that this year. But what is Trevor Lawrence is ceiling because that's what we need to know we know how pro football focus feels about him going into 2025. But how does PFF feel about Lawrence and what could his ceiling be in what has Lawrence is ceiling shown itself to be so far through his NFL career?

Starting point is 00:05:27 Well, if you look at the best PFF grade that he ever got overall, it was back in 2023. He had a 79.7 overall grade. That was a career high. Brock Purdy was the 10th highest graded quarterback last year with an overall grade of an 82.4. So if Lawrence's ceiling is top 10-ish or being a top 10 quarterback, then May's ceiling being a top 10 quarterback, I don't believe is too far off.

Starting point is 00:05:58 Now maybe you have different gradations. Maybe you feel like May would be 7th sixth, eighth, ninth, tenth. But if Lawrence is seen as a guy who has the opportunity, the potential, the chance to be a top 10 quarterback, then in essence, what Mr. Costco was telling us with this ceiling for Drake May is that he could be a top 10 quarterback right in that region. So I don't think that's a huge slight to May. However, the Daniel Jones floor thing drives me nuts. Daniel Jones, I know that there were some comparisons to Jones with May when May was coming out.

Starting point is 00:06:41 I think there are a few reasons why that is. That doesn't have much to do with actually how they play football, but I digress. When you look at Jones, the first thing about Daniel Jones that holds him back as an NFL quarterback, and maybe he'll be much better this year in Indianapolis if he wins the job from Anthony Richardson, but the key to Jones being limited is his arm strength. He does not have a very strong arm.

Starting point is 00:07:06 May has a strong arm. And that's such a huge difference between those two talents. If somebody has a very good arm and somebody has a manageable arm, the very good arm is much more likely to succeed. And then I look at May's intangibles. And I wonder if Jones has the level of compete that May has. We know that May is a feisty competitor. He will fight, fight, fight. I haven't seen that from Jones. May comes across as an alpha, somebody

Starting point is 00:07:41 who will control the room, somebody who knows how to talk to the room, somebody who his control the room, somebody who knows how to talk to the room, somebody who his teammates will follow him. Jones really hasn't given that alpha aura off since he was drafted by the New York Giants. And then you have Jones who literally becomes a puddle against pressure. And we saw May and his rookie season face as much pressure as anybody has faced. Maybe you got to go back to the David Cardes in Houston. But May handled that pressure pretty, pretty, pretty well.

Starting point is 00:08:17 So I just feel like May's makeup is much better than Jones's. And I think his natural talent, because of the arm strength, is better than Jones's. And when you look at Daniel Jones's and I think his natural talent because of the arm strength is better than Jones's and when you look at Daniel Jones's stats his most productive season was his rookie season when he threw 24 touchdowns his best passer rating was a 92.5 in 2022 May's passer rating last year was 88.1 which would have been Jones's second best passer rating of his NFL career. When you look at QBR, Jones's best QBR was a 62.9 again in 2022. Drake May's QBR last year was 58.6, which would have been Jones's second best QBR of his NFL career.

Starting point is 00:09:02 And Daniel Jones during that 2022 season had Brian Dayball and Saquon Barkley in the backfield. We all know what May had and didn't have last year, beginning with Alex van Pelt. So you're telling me that's the floor of Drake-May? I just think that floor is too low. But year three is going to be the ultimate tell. It is going to be the ultimate tell of how far along may can get. Because just like Josh Allen, year two was a little bit of a bump.

Starting point is 00:09:30 And then year three was the gigantic step forward, the gigantic leap. And year three will be the ultimate tell of ceiling versus floor for me. I'm not looking at 2025 as an either or of those. I'm just not looking at it and saying to myself, well, this is the best. This is the ceiling that may can hit. And I'm just not looking at it and saying to myself, well, this is the best. This is the ceiling that May can hit. And I'm also not looking at it and saying, oh, well, that's just the floor. We'll see what happens. I would hope that Drake May's floor was last season given what he had to deal with and and I feel like it probably is going to be that. But maybe I'm wrong. I don't think I am, but maybe I'm wrong.

Starting point is 00:10:02 But next year is going to be the big year, the second year with the offensive coordinator. I think an even better offensive line. Hopefully they find a true alpha wide receiver. May has fully adjusted to the NFL after they adjusted to what he does well. But Daniel Jones has the floor. Give me a break. I could see the Trevor Lawrence stuff. All right, a local scribe has his 53 man projection and I have three important observations from

Starting point is 00:10:30 that projections coming up next as we continue with today's episode of Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Ever wish managing your money felt easier? With Monarch money it can whether you're growing your savings or planning a big purchase Monarch puts you in the driver's seat it's like having your own personal CFO giving you full visibility and control over your finances Monarch money is more than a budgeting app

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Starting point is 00:11:56 that's going to be up during this training camp for the 53-man roster. And the reason why is there's been so much turnover to this roster already that you have just a number of guys that are on this 53 or going to be a 90 man when you first walk in so many guys that this regime has brought in to rail Williams variable, Josh McDaniels, so many connections to this coaching staff. And I think you have to, you have to give the advantage

Starting point is 00:12:27 as we get ready for camp to those guys who have been brought in this off season because this coaching staff, this front office led by Mike Vrabel and Ryan Cowden now, along with Elliot Wolf, they had a clear idea as to where they wanted to go when it comes to talent. And when it comes to a guy's comportment, his attitude, his personality away from the field. So you've got a bunch of this regime's guys that are going to be walking in the Patriots camp for

Starting point is 00:12:54 the very first time and I give them the leg up given the circumstances. But Doug Kyd came out with his pre-training camp 53-man roster, and I have three observations about the 53 from Kyd. His wide receiver room is as follows. Kendrick Bourne, Kaishan Booty, Pop Douglas, Stefan Diggs, Mack Hollins, Efton Chisholm, Kyle Williams. Now, many of you are going to be very happy just with the fact that Eftton Chisholm has made his 53-man roster. But to me, the wide receiver room, when you just look at those seven names that Kyle puts on his 53-man, the wide receiver room is bananas. Seven guys? Do you think the Patriots will carry seven receivers? I find it very difficult to believe that this football team will have seven receivers on the 53 in week one. That's too much of a luxury

Starting point is 00:13:58 for me to have a seventh receiver. Carrying six, some would even argue is a bit heavy. Carrying seven. I don't think you need seven wide receivers on this 53. I do think putting a seventh is a luxury throughout the last few months. I've been talking about how I would kind of situate things position by position, numbers wise, not even just talking names, but just looking at the numbers. And I feel much better about having six wide receivers than seven. I would like to devote that seventh wide receiver spot

Starting point is 00:14:36 to another position on the roster, which I will get to in a couple of minutes. Seven receivers, too much of a luxury. It's interesting that Kyde again has Efton Chisholm in. If Efton Chisholm is in then there's going to be at least two guys out three guys out that you might not have thought would be out when last season ended. Maybe some of you did think that Jalen Polk would be out no matter what. I'm still giving him a chance. It's an outside chance but I'm still giving Jalen Pol. It's an outside chance, but I'm still

Starting point is 00:15:05 giving Jaylen Polk a chance. But if Chisholm is in, that makes it much more difficult for Polk to get in. Jayvon Baker, he's behind Jaylen Polk, and Polk's been injured. He's coming off a surgery for his shoulder. And Baker can't even get on the field with Drake May. So seven receivers on the 53 and with seven guys with seven guys in that room Doug Kide still doesn't have poke and Baker in there Instead he's got if you really look at it chism and booty so chism and booty make it over poke and Baker interesting stuff Let's look at the offensive line. Doug Kai, here's how

Starting point is 00:15:47 he breaks it down. Jared Wilson, Garrett Bradbury at center. Your offensive tackles, Will Campbell, Marcus Bryant, Morgan Moses, Kaden Wallace. Your guards, City So, Cole Strange, and Michael Wenu. Now, I want to make this note. I believe this Doug Kyd 53-man roster projection came out before the Patriots signed Yasser Durant. I don't know if that would make a big difference. Probably not, but I'm not going to speak for Kyd. Maybe it would have made a big difference. Not sure.

Starting point is 00:16:26 Nine offensive linemen feels light, just like seven wide receivers feels a little bit heavy. And it's interesting that you have nine offensive linemen, neither Robinson makes it. So Tyrese Robinson not on this roster, Leydon Robinson not on this this roster. Leydon Robinson, not on this roster. Now Leydon Robinson's having issues. We'll get to him a little bit later in this podcast. So I don't think it's a reach to say Leydon Robinson could be in trouble. Tyrese Robinson, I do think has a chance

Starting point is 00:16:57 to make this roster. The last time we saw him before his, you know, unfortunate passing of his sister, which kept him from mandatory mini-camp, Tyrese Robinson was getting some looks at left guard. He was getting reps. So it's interesting that neither Robinson is on Kydes 53. How about Ben Brown?

Starting point is 00:17:17 Now Garrett Bradbury to me is a question mark. I've said that from the beginning. His past protection issues are real issues and It's gonna be a problem if he proves to not be better in that category So do you feel do you feel good enough to not have a Ben Brown on the roster? And I'm not telling you that Brown is great I'm just saying Jared Wilson missed OTAs missed mandatory minute camp. Hopefully he's out there during training camp, but he's obviously dealing with an injury.

Starting point is 00:17:48 And so I haven't seen much of anything from Wilson just yet. He's gonna make the roster, but do you feel confident in his ability to help you day one? We have to see, but this is a pre-training camp 53-man roster. So yes, Wilson will be on it. But do you need some insurance at center given Wilson's injury situation, and the stuff that I just mentioned with Bradbury.

Starting point is 00:18:12 So it's somewhat intriguing that Ben Brown is not on this 53. Then when you look at it, you have one backup guard. I don't think that's gonna happen. Maybe it will. I don't think it's gonna happen. Doug Kight has CitySew, Colestrange, and Mike Awenu. So right now you'd say Strange would be your starting left guard. Obviously Awenu is your starting right guard, which leaves Sew as your only backup, so you have one backup at center, one backup at guard, you've got two backup interior offensive lineman with a number of injury and performance questions on the interior offensive line. I would add at least one guard to that mix. I would, I would probably take a guard over the Ben Brown center thing, because I believe

Starting point is 00:19:02 you can go out and get somebody like Ben Brown, like they did last year. But I would put one more offensive lineman. I would take one receiver away. So I'd have six receivers. I'd have six receivers and 10 offensive lineman. I don't like seven and nine. All right. Lastly, let's take a look at safety. Doug Kide, his pre-training camp 53. He has Duggar, Peppers, Hawkins, Woodson, Pettis, Schoolyard. So he's got six safeties, six safeties on the week one roster. He has Hawkins over Marcus Epps. Now Hawkins, that'd be interesting because he's more of an in the box option at safety. And you feel like you've got Duggar, you've got Peppers, both those guys can play in the

Starting point is 00:19:49 box. But maybe you keep Hawkins as that security if one of those two guys gets hurt. Hawkins also plays a role on special teams, much like Schuyler. I mean, Schuyler will be listed as a safety, but it's really just a flex because Schuyler, in case of an emergency, you got to break the glass. You can throw them back there. And we saw him play some snaps last year, very limited role, but he played some snaps last year at safety.

Starting point is 00:20:15 So that's, you know, in case of an emergency type option, Schuyler's on the team, obviously, because he's excellent at what he does on special teams. So you really got five guys, if you're not going to play a schooler, on the defense. But Hawkins is the interesting one to me, because Epps, does he fit coming off ACL? Reportedly, he didn't have the strongest OTA slash mandatory mini camp. So we'll see if he gets better as he gets into training camp. Hawkins wasn't necessarily good last year. He was he was

Starting point is 00:20:49 there. He was assignment sure at times, but I wouldn't say that Hawkins jumped out to any of us. So I do think it's interesting. I could see Hawkins be EPS given what Epps hasn't or has done in OTA's mandatory mini camp. And I'm just looking at Craig Woodson. I think it's a legitimate option for Woodson to start on this team this year, or at least play a major role as that third safety coming off. So we'll see. The 2024 draft class, aside from Drake, may all seem to have the same flaw. It's coming up next as we continue with today's episode of Locked On Patriots,

Starting point is 00:21:29 probably Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. The NFL Draft is an inexact science. You have to do the work. But even if you do the work, it's no guarantee that you're going to pick the right guy. We see it all the time. And it's not just because of on the field issues. It's also because of off the field issues. What has a guy done or not done? Personally, that that could bother you. Is that guy a leader? Is he seen as somebody who takes his role seriously within the football

Starting point is 00:22:08 team? On the field, what kind of flaws does he have? And I really want to focus on the off the field makeup stuff when it comes to the 2024 draft class. Because I read a note from Greg Bedard, and this is something that's been kind of brewing in my head for a while Looking at the class from last year Something's going on right something's going on aside from Drake May there's just so many question marks about that class from a year ago and Bedard at BSJ recently wrote about Caden Wallace Multiple league sources say he has all the physical

Starting point is 00:22:45 tools to play offensive tackle even left tackle. But something is missing, like a lot of the 2024 draft class. But something is missing. Jalen Polk was seen as a very mature leader of a team type guy. And when he got here, he wasn't as advertised. His comportment on the sidelines, his comportment on the field at times, going to social media, some of the stuff he said to the media themselves. He was supposed to have borderline perfect makeup, but quickly we saw some of these things pop up. Something was missing. Javon Baker, I think, came almost totally as advertised, talented, but the will he ever quote unquote get it reputation because something with Baker is missing. Something

Starting point is 00:23:41 in the makeup. Leighton Robinson mentioned him a little bit earlier. And many people have written about Robinson over the past few weeks. He's tumbling down the depth chart. Suffers from a lack of focus. Presnap penalties during OTAs and mandatory minicamp. Doesn't quite understand his responsibilities on the field. Seems like there's something missing. Maybe doesn't have the work ethic that you would hope for. Then you had Joe Milton, who you traded because you were concerned how he was going to impact the makeup of your quarterback room. You felt like for him to be the backup of Drake May, he wouldn't be able to handle that.

Starting point is 00:24:27 to be the backup of Drake May, he wouldn't be able to handle that. He wouldn't maturely handle the situation. Again, something was missing. Polk, Baker, Robinson, Milton. And I look at that draft class aside from May, that's full of questions. And I truly wonder why there are so many questions about these players. And why seemingly the Patriots swung and missed on almost all of them and didn't truly understand what made them tick. Or maybe they just felt like they knew what made them tick and they took some wild swings and hoped for the best crossing their fingers. Is it because Elliott Wolf's involvement was so in depth with Gerard Mayo trying to put together his coaching staff that that actually took time away from Wolf and Wolf had less

Starting point is 00:25:16 time to vet some of these prospects himself? Did Wolf have less time to vet these prospects through his staff in the front office? Had less time talking about these guys? Had less time digging into the details? I know reportedly that Wolf, he almost had to hold Gerard Mayo's hand through the staffing process because Mayo just did not have enough connections throughout the NFL. That no doubt took some time away from Wolf in the job that he was supposed to do.

Starting point is 00:25:49 And did that mean that the Patriots overall, because the guy who was running the front office wasn't around as much as he should have been, does that mean that the front office gathered less intelligence about these players? Less info, less legwork, less background on some of them. Maybe they feel like they were hoodwinked because the people they spoke with maybe didn't tell them the whole story. Was this an operational mess? I feel like it's easy to say yes. But why? Well, you got to look at how this was put together a year ago and the fact that your

Starting point is 00:26:31 front office was in between grading systems. You had the Belichick grading system. Then you had Elliot Wolff's Packers grading system. The Packers grading system is what was used this time around. Last year they did not have enough time because they were knee deep in trying to figure out all these prospects. They could not turn over the grading system and begin from, you know, scratch in February. It's impossible. So that grading system from the Packers days, it didn't hit until this last draft. So you're in between grading systems, which kind of gives you a gray area. You're kind of juggling around guys and saying, okay, well, what would we grade

Starting point is 00:27:17 him here and what would we grade him there? And well, that was what the Belichick grading system would tell us. But do we really feel great about that guy? I'm sure there was a certain amount of unknown about how they truly wanted to handle each and every prospect when they were going through that grading system. And then you look at the hierarchy of the front office, namely, Elliot Wolf, trying to find his voice, he brings in Alonzo Highsmith, Alonzo Highsmith had not worked with most of the front office last year. He was brought in as Wolf's guy. So Elliot Wolf, first time as a GM, trying to figure out his ways, holding the hand of his head coach and working with him to try to fill the coaching staff, missing some pivotal dates that Wolf should have gone to because he was

Starting point is 00:28:05 wrapped up in things he shouldn't have been wrapped up in but had to be wrapped up in in between grading systems and then Alonzo Highsmith comes on he's working with a bunch of new people. Was last year's draft more gut? Is that what happened? It's a very strange thing. And it's it's especially strange when you compare last year's class to this year's class. And yes, I know, Mike Vrabel and Ryan

Starting point is 00:28:33 Cowden came in and stretch came in. But those guys came in and you know, January. And a lot of the work most of the work was already done, which is why Wolf was here. And he was a pivotal part of the process because he had done all the work, most of the work was already done, which is why Wolf was here and he was a pivotal part of the process because he had done all the work with his front office for the past year. And variable came in and said, Okay, well, this is what I'm looking for. And Wolf took that information. And they cultivated a list of guys that variable would like and who would fit variable system. And then they went from there. But when you

Starting point is 00:29:04 look at the makeup of these players in 2025, it's fascinating because it's much different than what we saw in 2024. There's been lots of culture talk, lots of leadership talk, lots of maturity talk with this class. And it just leaves you to wonder, was it as simple as Elliott Wolf was slotted in his position, which is something that you hope was the case last year, and he was fully comfortable and had his grading system. And obviously Vrabel and Cowden and Stretch helped

Starting point is 00:29:42 out tremendously as well. But maybe Elliott Wolf, you know, he was able to go back to his scouting days more than he was like the GM try last year. And he was more comfortable kind of filling a lot of the same role that he had filled before last year. And Vrabel was the guy who he knew was going to drop the hammer and really had the final say. was the guy who he knew was going to drop the hammer and really had the final say. So maybe the strengths of Elliot Wolf is the scouting particular players and being able to put the work in and working on that side of it instead of, you know, trying to run the whole operation and delegate and talk to everybody else in the front office and try to handle all of it. It's interesting because last

Starting point is 00:30:25 draft it just feels like it couldn't be any more different than this year's draft. All right, that wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. Don't forget to throw a comment in the YouTube channel and don't forget to hit that like button and subscribe as well. Thank you for making Lockdown Patriots your first listen today. For your second listen, check out Lockdown NFL Scouting. It is tremendous. You can find it on YouTube or wherever you're listening to podcasts. Have a great day. We will see you on Wednesday.

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Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Article Reveals Drake Maye’s Surprising Ceiling/Floor Projection

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