Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Awakening: Mike Vrabel's Vision Comes To Life | New England's Future Bright?

Starting point is 00:00:00 As much fun as Sunday night was in the moment, it could be even more critical for the long-term health of this franchise. Let's start there. This is Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcasts Network, your team every day. What's happening? I'm your host, Nick Cattles, born and raised in New Orleans. England been covering the Patriots for the past 16 years. Also the co-host of the Greg Bidore Patriots podcast, Whitney Cattels and a sports talk show host veteran. Coming up, you won't

Starting point is 00:00:39 believe the true impact of Stefan Diggs in that Buffalo game. We've got some numbers that will stun you. Also, there's one thing the Pats have to correct quickly or this season could get derailed. But first, a look at Sunday night's long-term impact. We appreciate you joining the show, making us your first listen, and for being an everydayer. A lot of Lockdown Patriots podcast, a proud partner. The Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. And don't forget if you're watching on YouTube to click that thumbs up for us, hit that like. It helps us with the algorithm.

Starting point is 00:01:12 Throw a comment in and also subscribe. And a reminder, we're going to go live, live post game on Sunday following the Saints game. Today's episode brought to by Fandul. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you get $300 in bonus bets to use. across the app. Sunday night's win could, and I underline and highlight could be the turning of the tie. It could be a franchise turning point. Why? Let's begin here. Proof of concept. Everything that Mike Vrable's been preaching to his team since he took over, since he was hired as the new head

Starting point is 00:01:52 coach of the Patriots, every single solitary thing that he has tried to sell his team on, he can now circle back and point to the Buffalo win and say, that's why we do it this way. That's why I've been talking about this. That's why I've been talking about that. And as a matter of fact, that has already begun. If you watch the post-game video in the locker room in Buffalo, the Patriots released it on their social media channels, if you watch that video, Mike Vrable almost immediately, after giving away the game balls, almost immediately tells the team, this is why we've been doing this.

Starting point is 00:02:32 We're going to give you the chance, the opportunity. We're going to give you the information that you need. We're going to give you the ways that you can win a football game. We're going to help guide you. It's your day. It's your day on Sunday. It's the players day on Sunday. But this is why we work the way we work during the week.

Starting point is 00:02:50 Now, I'm paraphrasing, but that was the message. The message was, this is why we do what we do as a coaching staff. This is why we say what we have said, and if you follow what we say, if you follow what we want you to do during the week, this is what's going to happen. You're going to win football games, and you might even upset some of the best teams in football. That's what's going to happen. Continue to follow the program. And Mike Vrable was preaching that right after the win, and you are inching closer and closer when you have a win like the Patriots. had against Buffalo in Buffalo, you are closing in on full buy-in, where everybody in that

Starting point is 00:03:33 locker room believes in you. Now, we joke around about the Philadelphia 76ers and the whole trust the process stuff. But honestly, that's what Mike Vrable's message is to his team. Trust the process, because the process brought you to this win on national television against the Super Bowl favorite Buffalo bills. Continue to trust the process, and we will continue to get great results. I mean, just read or listen to what some of these players have been saying over the past couple of days about their head coach. Christian Gonzalez met with the media on Monday. Phil Perry transcribed this quote. He said, quote, it's been awesome as far as playing for Vrable. It's been awesome. He's done that at every game talking about Mike Vrable, greeting each and

Starting point is 00:04:19 every player after the game in the tunnel before you get into the locker room. So Gonzalez says he's done that every game. I love Vrable. That's Christian Gonzalez. I love Vrable. The things he does, the way he coaches, it's easy to go out and play for him, unquote. That's your best defensive player saying, I love my coach. It is super easy to go out and play for this guy. But it's not only the belief in the buy-in with the staff. It's also belief and trust in the young quarterback in what he did on Sunday night. Christian Barmore said this about Drake May, quote, Drake May, amazing. I told you all, I love playing for this man. Christian Barmore says, I love playing for this man. I love everything about him. I love how he carries himself. I love his style, love his

Starting point is 00:05:09 game. I know when Drake has the ball, he's going to do something special. Again, that was Christian Barmore after the win in Buffalo. And successful, organizations in the NFL. A lot of them have similarities. And it starts with the head coach and the quarterback. If you have a good head coach, if you have a good quarterback, you have a chance to be anybody. On any give it Sunday, you can beat any team anywhere. If you have a good head coach who pays attention to the details and you have a quarterback that just gives you a chance, but Drake May gives you better than a chance the way he's been playing. And that second half against Buffalo on Sunday night, he played like an elite quarterback. He played like one of the best

Starting point is 00:05:54 quarterbacks at all of football. And when you have the head coach and you have the quarterback figured out, that goes a long way towards success in that league. It's not a mystery. You got to get the quarterback right and it helps to get the head coach right. Sometimes the quarterback can help the head coach. Most of the time, the quarterback helps the head coach. But if you have both of them in lockstep, and you have belief. You have belief from the team and the head coach and the coaching staff, and you have belief from the team and your quarterback. So when he walks into that huddle,

Starting point is 00:06:29 they're looking at him believing that he can do whatever he needs to do to win that game. You're going to be competitive. You're going to always be competitive if you have those two spots figured out. And guess what? In the big picture from 30,000 feet, it also helps you with recruiting. Free agency coming. up over the next year or two if the Patriots can bottle up the vibe and bottle up this process

Starting point is 00:06:57 that led them to a Buffalo win and they continue to improve throughout the season and they continue to win football games even if they're not in the playoffs if they're just in the hunt if they're just competitive in December if they're this close index and thumb so close to each other as I say this if they're that close that's going to help you in free agency. Free agents are going to be looking at this and saying, guys love to play for Vrable, man. They love to play for Mike Vrable in Tennessee. They love to play for him in New England. I want to play for a head coach that is like Mike Vrable. You don't think players are paying attention to Drake May. Now, of course, it comes down to money. But how do you win players

Starting point is 00:07:40 over if the money is equal or close to being equal? You have a quarterback like Drake May to sell them. You got a head coach like Mike Vrable to sell them. The reputation around the league means so much when you're trying to build a program. But here's the thing. The Patriots have to carry this momentum. If you fall back, if you lose to New Orleans and or Tennessee, if you lose a couple of games over the next month that you're favored, then all of a sudden, some of this feel good starts to slide back.

Starting point is 00:08:16 you have to carry this momentum. You cannot afford to fall back because if you fall back, what happened on Sunday night against the bills doesn't mean as much. You don't want that win to be a blip. You don't want that win to be an anomaly. You want that win to begin the turning of the tide,

Starting point is 00:08:36 to create a higher standard of football in New England, to raise that bar, to send the message to everybody else. What is happening in New England is for real. Mike Vrable is for real. Drake May is for real. And we are getting closer and closer to turning this thing around. You've got to build on this momentum that you have created.

Starting point is 00:09:03 Great win against Carolina. Easy peasy. One, two, three, z feet up on the desk. Blow out at home. Follow it up on the road. Super Bowl contender. MVP of the league. Walk away with the dub, continue to build that momentum.

Starting point is 00:09:20 If you want the big picture impact that I'm talking about, you have to continue to carry this momentum into New Orleans, into Tennessee, and beyond. All right, as good as three and two feels, and it feels good after the last couple of years, the Pats have to, and I mean have to figure out how to solve one of their glaring weaknesses or this season could go off the rails. We'll talk about that next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. The NFL season is here, and Fanduel has an offer you don't want to miss. Right now, new customers can bet just $500 and bonus bets if you win. That's right, pick a bet, put down five bucks, and if it hits, you'll unlock $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. I love how Fandul gives me so many ways.

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Starting point is 00:10:51 Visit fanduil.com to download the Fandul app today and get started. All right, hand up. Hand up. I'm raising my hand. I was 100% wrong about what to expect from this Patriots offense, especially early in the season. I thought that the Patriots run game would be ahead of the passing game. Not even that.

Starting point is 00:11:15 I thought the Patriots run game would be well ahead of the passing game. Drake May learning another new offense, a lot of new pieces at wide receiver, new pieces on the offensive line. It's going to take some time. Looking at Josh McDaniels and Mike Vrable's history and how they love to run the football, they want to establish the run, they talked about it all camp long. I thought the Patriots would be able to run the football, the offensive lineman history.

Starting point is 00:11:46 You have a number of guys up front that have proven that they can run block. And what has happened? It's been the polar opposite. This team can't run the football. And they have to start running the football if they want to do what I just talked about in the last segment. If they want to, no pun intended, carry the momentum from that Buffalo win and continue to stockpile wins in 2025. They're going to have to eventually run the football. and sooner rather than later.

Starting point is 00:12:17 Too often when you're watching this offense, it's two or three yards and a cloud of dust with the run game. And that just can't happen. And it's for a lot of different reasons. Some of it falls on the running backs with inconsistent vision, missing cutback lanes, not understanding what they should be doing in the moment, running into the wall at the line of scrimmage

Starting point is 00:12:41 instead of trying to bounce it out, or again, do the cutback, just inconsistent vision from your running backs. You also have inconsistent, if not non-existent, second-level execution. From your offensive line, from your tight ends at times, even from your receivers at times, you're not getting to that second level, blocking effectively, and allowing the running back to get beyond that 5, 6, 7 yards, hit the juice, and get going. So second level execution from the offensive line, tight ends, wet receivers,

Starting point is 00:13:17 inconsistent vision from your backs, and sometimes a lack of push from your offensive line, especially on the interior. The Patriots are not getting a lot of push from the interior of the offensive line in the run game. When you look at some other runs outside, some skiing stuff, it's a little bit different, but they can't get that push from the inside. Jared Wilson has been inconsistent. He's young. We expect him to get better, and you have to be patient with him to develop. I'm just telling you why this run game has not been effective. Jared Wilson at left guard, inconsistent. Garrett Bradbury's had a very good season overall. He has exceeded my expectations and pretty much everybody's expectations as we were walking in to 2025. But Garrett Bradbury will have some issues against bigger interior defensive linemen.

Starting point is 00:14:11 and Michael Wenu has been very inconsistent at right guard. So you combine all of those factors. You've got some issues getting push inside. You've got lack of execution on the second level. And you have running backs who have been inconsistent with their vision. Three yards and a cloud of dust. That's what you're left with, man. And it ain't good enough.

Starting point is 00:14:34 Now, you can look at the silver lining. The silver lining, the great news, is that Drake May has played as well as he has played being in a one-dimensional offense. Think about how well he played on Sunday night. Think about that second half and then embrace and appreciate the idea that he is doing that without any running game.

Starting point is 00:15:00 He's been this good without that help. Now, here's the bad news. It's going to eventually catch up to the Patriots. The lack of a run game being so one-dimensional offensively is going to eventually catch up with the pads. You cannot continue to be as bad as they've been on the ground. The outside touches at times, the pitches, the tosses, those types of plays have worked from time to time. Some schemed runs from Josh McDaniels has worked. But overall, it's an ugly picture I'm going to paint.

Starting point is 00:15:38 How bad has this run offense been? They're 29th in the NFL and rush EPA. They're 27th in EPA per rush. They're 25th in 10-plus yard runs. They've had 12 runs of 10-plus yards. How many of those from Drake May? Probably half of them, if I had to guess. They're 29th in success rate.

Starting point is 00:16:02 29th. I mean, they're one of the bottom five rushing teams. teams in football. Now, you could look at it and say, well, they are facing the sixth highest stacked box rate in the NFL. So teams are kind of loading up in the box to stop the run game. Maybe that will change. Drake May keeps cooking defenses.

Starting point is 00:16:25 Maybe defenses won't be able to stack that box as much. Down in distance has also been an issue. You talk about procedural penalties. Those hurt. Those hurt the chance to run the football. If you're looking at first and 15 instead of first and 10, it hurts. Second and 13 instead of second and six, it hurts. And if you don't get the run game going, there's going to be more pressure, even more pressure on Drake May, especially on third down.

Starting point is 00:16:53 And I've talked about this. Don't want to drag on about the point, but Drake May has been terrific on third and fourth down. Thankfully, he's had to be terrific on third and fourth down. Mike Vrable's had to be aggressive on fourth down because, you're not. You're not getting the early down results from your run game. You're dealing with a lot of third and medium, third and long. And Drake May, thankfully, has been brilliant in a lot of those spots. But can you reasonably expect him to be brilliant week in and week out, third and long?

Starting point is 00:17:27 I can't. I'm happy he's been that for the first five weeks for the most part. but I think it's unreasonable to expect him to be as good as he's been on third down and fourth down every week the rest of this season. Teams are going to adjust. I think they're going to stack the box less, which means more coverage versus the receivers, more coverage for Drake made a deal with. And now you take away Antonio Gibson and you have even more questions for this run game. Speaking of the run game, speaking of Antonio Gibson, the Patriots, signed running back Jay Sean Corbyn, On Tuesday to the practice squad, they released offensive lineman Royce Newman.

Starting point is 00:18:09 Sounds like, as I had suspected, the Patriots are going to slow play the running back situation. I would expect them to elevate Terrell Jennings this weekend against New Orleans. So you walk in with Stevenson, Jennings, and Henderson. And I think, you know, you hope that Ramandre Stevenson and Trevion Henderson can give you something more than they've given you consistently. you would hope that Terrell Jennings gets called up and maybe he gives you a little bit of something. But I think the Patriots will roll with those three running backs. J. Sean Corbyn will stay on the practice squad.

Starting point is 00:18:46 Maybe they, if they don't love what they get from Terrell Jennings, they call up J. Sean Corbyn, and they play that elevation game for the next couple of weeks. And then you see what you have, you evaluate what you have as you get closer to the trading deadline, which is in early November. and then maybe you make a move then. And if you're wondering about Jay Sean Corbyn, according to Mike Reese,

Starting point is 00:19:08 he's been with the Giants, the Panthers, the Falcons. He also played for the San Antonio Brahmus of the UFO, UFL in 2025, leading the league with 514 yards on 97 carries and had four touchdowns. So that's the latest on the handling of the Antonio Gibson injury that we talked about on yesterday's episode. So how do you fix the run game? What do you need to do to fix things? A couple of things that the Patriots can try.

Starting point is 00:19:36 They can try to play six offensive linemen more often. Now, of course, they try to do that with Vedarian Lowe on Sunday night, and it backfired because Vedarian Lowe had a false start. No, Buono. But you can, every once in a while, you're not going to play six offensive linemen, 45 snaps a game, but every once in a while, you can go with six offensive linemen. You can use some of the passing game as your run game, which we've seen from Josh McDaniels.

Starting point is 00:20:02 What that means is quick game, screen passes, get it out of the hands. You get four or five yards on that first down, and that replaces your run game. But you don't want to do that too often because you want to be able to run. They could try to find a fullback, but it feels like that ship has sailed, and they might have to wait until next year to get a legitimate run-blocking fullback. You need the offensive line to improve, and you need them to, you need them to run block better than they have. Travion Henderson improving would be a big boost to the run game if he improves the vision. If he starts to cut back more often feel more comfortable out

Starting point is 00:20:44 there, that would help. Remandre Stevenson not fumbling and keeping some kind of confidence level would also help. Going outside and getting somebody could help depending on who that somebody is, but they've got to fix this run game. If they don't fix this run game and they're one-dimensional, they're not going to be as good as they could be. They have to fix it. It's a glaring weakness right now through five weeks. You're almost one-third through the season, and you have been one of the worst runoff fences in all of football. It can't continue to happen.

Starting point is 00:21:18 Before we're out of the Saints, we have some crazy stats from the Bills game and more. Next, as we continue with today's episode of Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team. every day. I'm Cody Rourke from Lockdown Broncos, and this episode is brought to you by Peloton. Peloton is shaping the future of fitness with the brand new Peloton, cross-training, tread plus powered by Peloton IQ. This is Peloton's most advanced equipment yet, giving you real-time guidance and endless ways to move, whether you're running, lifting, or you're cross-training with your

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Starting point is 00:22:39 We've got some astounding numbers from the Bills game. So let's close the book on the Bills game with a closer look at some of these stats and analytics. And then we'll move on to the New Orleans Saints matchup in tomorrow's episode when we do the crossover. But let's close the book on the Bills game. A great win. Let's close the book with a closer look at some of these stats, analytics, and a couple of more thoughts that I have as far as the snap counts go. Stefan Diggs, his impact on Sunday night's game was insane. Now, I know Captain Obvious just walked into the room.

Starting point is 00:23:13 Thanks, Nick. Stefan Diggs had a huge impact. Hold on a minute. Hold on a minute. I want to share with you the analytics, the numbers, and how much Stefan Diggs impacted that. game, went beyond what you saw with your eyes at times. Yeah, he had 10 catches and 146 yards, but the 33rd team posted some of these analytics, some of these metrics on what Diggs did

Starting point is 00:23:40 on Sunday night. Expected points added, EPA. Individually, Stefan Diggs was plus 8.6, crazy number. Drake May's passer rating was 117.4 when he targeted Stefan Diggs. And yes, we saw the yak from Stefan Diggs on Sunday night. He had 82 receiving yards over expected. He was a plus 82. And now you look at what Stefan Diggs has done through the first five weeks, got off to a slow start. I thought that was predictable given his situation, the surgery, the recovery. But now you look at what Stefan Diggs has done through the first five weeks. In pro football focus, some don't like the numbers. I'm just using the numbers from pro football focus as a gauge, as an idea. Pro football focus has an overall grade for Stefan Diggs of 85.6.

Starting point is 00:24:38 Stefan Diggs is the fourth highest rated wide receiver in the entire NFL with that 85.6 overall grade. And Josh McDaniels is starting to find a rhythm using Stefan Diggs in multiple ways. Talked about it a little bit last week, the versatility and what that does. Andrew Callahan of the Boston Herald writes, Stefan Diggs almost single-handedly powered the Pats three receiver personnel groupings,

Starting point is 00:25:06 which was their most effective and efficient grouping on Sunday night. Stefan Diggs won from the slot, the X and Z, receiver positions, and Stefan Diggs generated 80% He generated 80% of the Patriots plus plays in that three receiver personnel grouping. Absolutely bonkers. Bananas. Now, the more attention that Stefan Diggs draws, you're going to need the other wide receivers to step up.

Starting point is 00:25:40 As more teams pay attention to Diggs and now they look at Stefan Diggs and say, well, he might not be a number one with a bullet type guy, but he still did. dangerous and we have to respect that, the more teams, the more defenses start to key in on Stefan Diggs, that's going to be more opportunity for guys like K. Sean Booty and Pop Douglas, in Matt Collins, and hopefully Kyle Williams. Those other wide receivers are going to have to start making an impact more consistently if Stefan Diggs starts to get taken out because of all the attention he gets. Now, I think Kisham Booty's had a good season. so far. Given his opportunities, I think he should get more opportunities. And if Stefan Diggs is the apple of the eye of the defensive coordinator every week, Kishon Booty should get

Starting point is 00:26:32 some more opportunities. But you need those guys to step up. You need Hunter Henry to continue to be Hunter Henry. He's been fantastic this year as a pass receiver. You might even need Austin Hooper to make a couple more catches than he has if teams start to key in on Stefan Diggs. And one thing with Drake May, I hope Drake May does not get fixated on throwing the football to Stefan Dix. Make sure you throw it to him when he's open. Don't start forcing the issue in creating bad situations because you're infatuated with throwing to Stefan Dix. The one thing we've got to look out for, Drake May has to continue to play good football with great decision making and not start force feeding Stefan Diggs.

Starting point is 00:27:20 Speaking of Drake May, before the season, one number that I harped on was turnover worthy play rate. That turnover worthy play conversation, we talked about it over and over and over again in the offseason with Drake May because that was his biggest weakness during his rookie season. The turnover worthy play rate was way too high. How's he doing so far through five weeks? Well, Evan Lizarre wrote this week.

Starting point is 00:27:48 Drake May is now ninth best in turnover-worthy play rate among 33 qualified quarterbacks. The rate is at 2%. If you're wondering, Drake May in 2024 had the third highest turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL, and the percentage was 3.7. So he has almost cut that in half through the first five weeks of this season. And if Drake May can continue to limit the turnover-worthy plays, he's going to be a top 10 quarterback. he has way too much talent as we've seen there's no denying he's going to be a top 10 guy at

Starting point is 00:28:24 that position and maybe even higher than that by the end of the year if he can continue to take care of the football and make good decisions turnover worthy play rate it is the most pivotal number for drake may in 2025 if he keeps that number down it means he continues to learn and progress and he's going to continue to improve and again by the end of the year we're talking about a guy who could be top 10, maybe even higher at the position. You could argue right now, and I would argue, he's right about in the top 10 through the first five weeks. And you can look at the metrics and the analytics.

Starting point is 00:29:00 I would say he's a top 10 quarterback through the first five weeks. But he's got to keep that number down. He's got to keep that rate down. If he keeps at it, he has elite ability. One more thing, protect yourself, Drake May. Protect yourself. A couple of times on Sunday night. He made the right decision to run, but he did not necessarily finish the run protecting himself.

Starting point is 00:29:24 All right, let's look at some of the snap counts here. Would it surprise you if I told you Brendan Schuller had more snaps than Kyle Dugger? He did two snaps versus one snap for Kyle Dugger. Of course, Brennan Schuler had that bad penalty. So maybe he shouldn't have any snaps this weekend. Ramandre Stevenson had 31 snaps. Trayvion Henderson had 30. So pretty much a 50-50 split between those two guys.

Starting point is 00:29:47 And of course, Antonio Gibson's injury impacted the usage of the running backs. And we'll see how that unfolds against the Saints this weekend. Pop Douglas had 17 snaps. Kyle Williams had 10. I would like to see more snaps from Kyle Williams. He got open a couple of times on Sunday night. He just wasn't targeted. Stefan Diggs, all the numbers I gave you, he only played 50% of the snaps.

Starting point is 00:30:10 That kind of impact on half the snaps. Crazy. Christian Ellis, 54% of the snaps, and I'm going to give Christian Ellis credit. He was better against Buffalo than he had been through the first four weeks of the season. So a tip of the cap to Christian Ellis for being better on Sunday night. Milton Williams was dealing with the ankle injury all week. He played 60% of the snaps, so he seems fine. Kairis Tonga played 41% of the snaps.

Starting point is 00:30:42 That is a bump. He was terrific. Christian Barmore was terrific as well. The interior defensive line continues to do work. And Jolani Tavai played 15 snaps. And I thought Jalani Tavai had a pretty good night, especially against the run. He lost one edge for a five-yard gain at one point. But the rest of the way, he was solid.

Starting point is 00:31:01 And he will help the run defense as if you need help. Patriots run defense has been terrific, obviously. One more thing I want to share with you. The Patriots start in perspective. Mike Reese posted. The Patriots had their first two-game win streak since 2022. This is their best start in the division, 2-0, since 2019. They had their first win over a 4-0-0 team or better since week six of 2018 against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Starting point is 00:31:35 Continue to build the momentum. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being in every day. reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. Don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit the like button. Subscribe. We do live post games on Sundays. You don't want to miss those as well.

Starting point is 00:31:51 And for your second listen, get a double dose of the Lockdown NFL podcast with Tyler the Madman Roland and Tony Wiggins. Find Lockdown NFL on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. Have a great day. And we will see you tomorrow for the Saints, Pat's crossover. Thank you.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Awakening: Mike Vrabel's Vision Comes To Life | New England's Future Bright?

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