Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Barth Talks Buffalo; Divisional Duel in December - 12/20/19

Episode Date: December 20, 2019

The New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills are set for a December Divisional-Duel on Saturday. Alex Barth of CLNS media joins host Mike D’Abate to discuss game strategy and provide analysis for this exciting matchup at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello to all you Foxborough faithful and welcome to your It's Almost Game Day Friday episode of Locked On Patriots, your daily home for news, notes, analysis, and the occasional opinion on your six-time Super Bowl champions, the New England Patriots. This episode is brought to you in part by Casper. The original Casper mattress combines multiple supportive memory foams for a quality sleep surface with the right amounts of both sink and bounce. Get $100 towards select mattresses by visiting casper.com slash lockednfl. multiple supportive memory foams, or a quality sleep surface with the right amounts of both sink and bounce. Get $100 towards select mattresses by visiting casper.com slash locked NFL and use locked NFL at checkout.

Terms and conditions apply. If you can't visit Casper right now, you can find this and all other offers from Locked On sponsors at lockedonpodcast.com slash offers. My name is Mike DeBate and I am your host of Locked On Patriots, which of course is a part of the Locked OnPodcast.com slash offers. My name is Mike DeBate, and I am your host of Locked On Patriots, which, of course, is a part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Please feel free to reach out to me on Twitter and follow me on Twitter at MDABATEFPC.

And be sure to follow Locked On Patriots on Twitter as well at LO underscore Patriots. And yes, it is Friday, folks, but tomorrow, Saturday, December 21st, is game day. 4.30 p.m. is the start time. Your New England Patriots welcome the Buffalo Bills to the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. And for those Patriots, there is no place like home for the holidays. There are quite a few playoff implications for this one, including the fate of the AFC East, which can be determined if the Patriots are victorious.

And I will get into all of that and much more today. Because joining me here on Locked On Patriots is Alex Barth of CLNS Media. Alex is among the best and brightest NFL analysts anywhere in the sports media world. His ability to blend objectivity and keep his finger on the pulse of the Patriots fan base is remarkable, folks. I'm honored to welcome him back to the podcast today. This will be the second time that Alex has been my guest. It's going to be a great and informative show, so settle in, folks, and I hope that you enjoy

what I have in store for you today on Locked on Patriots. But as it was yesterday, the news of the day today continues to be health and injuries. And as I speculated yesterday here on Locked On Patriots, cornerback Jonathan Jones has officially been ruled out for this contest between the Pats and Bills. Jones did not practice at all this week after suffering the groin injury in last Sunday's win over the Cincinnati Bengals. As I've stated for the better part of the week, this isn't catastrophic news for the Pats, but it is significant.

Jones has played very well in the slot this season, and they'll miss his productivity. With his absence now being a certainty, that task will now likely fall on Jason McCourty. But that's only if he's healthy. McCourty is battling a groin injury of his own, and he's officially listed as questionable on the Patriots Injury Report. Now, this groin injury has kept McCourty out of three out of the last four games. If McCourty can't go tomorrow, rookie Juwan Williams, who we haven't seen a whole lot of this year, he could end up finding himself matched up against Buffalo's Cole Beasley, and that is a tall task. Beasley's one of the best slot receivers in the league, but Williams is not an ordinary rookie. He may not have a ton of in-game experience,

but he is a second-round pick, and he's one that the Patriots targeted, and they went out and got him. He's a tough physical corner and can be effective, so if you do see Williams in coverage tomorrow, don't necessarily be scared. You might be surprised at what the rookie can do, but it is certain that if he's called upon, he will need to be up to the challenge. Other notables on the Patriots injury report include wide receiver Julian Edelman. Of course, he's still being listed with the shoulder and the knee problems. Possibility of tendinitis in that knee continues to be a concern for the Patriots. It will likely limit Julian's effectiveness in the passing game, so keep a sharp eye on his status for tomorrow.

Linebackers Jamie Collins with a shoulder and Juwan Bentley with a knee were both listed on the injury report. Both were limited in practice, and they're officially listed as questionable. But putting that aside, the practice seemed to go pretty well on Thursday. The Patriots actually practiced inside of Gillette Stadium. That's pretty rare during the season. It's actually the first time they've practiced inside Gillette since training camp. When asked about why they did so, Bill Belichick said that the field conditions on the practice

fields were the primary reason behind the move. The surface on the practice fields adjacent to Gillette Stadium is natural grass. The surface inside Gillette Stadium is a synthetic grass. So the surface inside the stadium was in much better condition than the natural grass on the practice fields that was frozen and frigid as very low temperatures continue to plague the Northeast. And in that vein, if you're heading to Gillette for tomorrow's game, stay warm. Game time temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 20s. Clear skies and light winds, which is good. So not exactly an ice bowl, but definitely not a heat wave.

Bundle up and stay safe, folks. For those of you that are watching this one at home, perhaps maybe in the background doing some last minute holiday preparations, this game will be broadcast by the NFL Network. Now that is a bit of a change from those of you that are used to seeing the AFC broadcasts on CBS. But this one is a national broadcast, and that means the NFL Network will have it. Mike Tirico will handle the play-by-play, Kurt Warner will handle the color commentary, and Pete Schrager will work the sidelines. If you're in the Boston area, WBZ Channel 4 will broadcast the game, and for those

of you that don't have the NFL Network or are not able to get WBZ Channel 4 locally, the Patriots are actually doing something really cool here. The game will be broadcast on the Patriots' iOS mobile app or Safari Mobile on Patriots.com. So again, if neither NFL Network nor WBZ are options for you, log on to Patriots.com and you can stream the game live. And of course, and as always, if you like a local flavor, Bob Sose and former Pats quarterback Scott Zolak have the call on 98.5 The Sports Hub on FM radio. I can't praise the local broadcast

enough. Bob and Zoe are awesome. They really set an amazing visual for those that are unable to watch the game, and they also sync up very well with the television broadcast. So if you want to have the TV on, put 98.5 on in the background, they're really good with the call on that as well. But no matter how you enjoy the game, be sure to enjoy it, because this will be a great one, folks. Two very good, very evenly matched teams. And this is what Teddy Bruschi likes to call a hat and t-shirt game, because with a win, the Patriots will clinch the 2019 AFC East title.

That would extend their own NFL record to 11 straight division titles from 2009 to 2019. And as I stated earlier this week here on Locked On Patriots, this would be the 19th division title in Robert Kraft's 26 seasons of ownership. Amazing, folks. To give you just a little stat that solidifies just how good we've had it here the last 26 years, in the first 34 years before Robert Kraft bought the team, the Patriots had three division titles. And that's something that's definitely near and dear to all of Patriots nation. But you know who doesn't care about the Patriots division titles? The Buffalo Bills. Because with a win, they would keep their own hopes alive for a division title. The Bills would

need to win their two remaining games, including this one against the Pats. But New England would also need to lose next week to the Miami Dolphins. So some help would be needed, but the Bills would still have a chance to win the division if they beat the Patriots on Saturday. And the Bills players believe it is a very realistic possibility. They will be ready for this one, but you know what, folks? The Pats are going to be ready too. And in just a moment, I will welcome Alex Barth here to Locked On Patriots to give you a preview of what we might see on Saturday at Gillette Stadium.

And of course, as I always do, I'll close it out here on Locked On Patriots with my final analysis and my game prediction. As I've stated here before, folks, in New England, you'll be hard-pressed to find four people that do their job better than my guest today and his colleagues. Am I talking about the Patriots starting secondary? Well, I guess that would fit, but the crew I'm speaking of is

nearly as prolific. Alongside great journalists like Mike Petraglia, Sierra Goodwill, and Evan Lazar, this man is among the best in the business at blending professionalism with a bit of hometown flavor mixed in. You know him from his amazing audio, video, and written work covering the New England Patriots for CLNS Media. It's my honor to be joined today by Alex Spock.

Alex, welcome back to Lockdown Patriots. Thanks for having me, Mike. You've got to clean up that intro a bit. That's way too kind. I don't deserve all that, really. You can just say here's some schlub from Sharon, Massachusetts. That's really all you need to say. No, are you kidding me?

Believe me when I tell you. I know I always catch a lot for the intros that I give. Believe me, they're from the heart. You guys do an amazing job. It is not easy in a media market like Boston to cover the most popular team in the NFL, whether they're loved, whether they're hated. You guys do a great job, and especially the CLNS team. I have nothing but respect for you, for Mike, for Evan, andided. You guys do a great job, and especially the CLNS team. I have nothing but respect for you, for Mike, for Evan and Sierra.

You guys do an amazing job. Last time you were on here, we talked about developing one of those cool nicknames for you guys. We're still accepting offers, folks. We're still accepting ideas for that. So send them to Alex, send them to me, and maybe in the offseason we can give you guys that moniker, maybe toward the playoffs. Who knows?

Maybe it'll be a nice holiday gift for everybody involved here. But, Alex, I don't think it's a secret that the Patriots are probably going to have their hands full with this Buffalo Bills team tomorrow. They have the third-ranked defense in the NFL, and we'll discuss that defense in just a little bit. But let's start on the offensive side of the ball for the Pats. And, Alex, or I should say the offensive side of the ball for the Pats. And Alex, or I should say the offensive side of the ball for the Bills. And the Bills' offense is playing better now than when these two teams first met back in September.

Bills' passing attack, obviously, John Brown, Cole Beasley, they're their two main receivers. But Devin Singletary, who the Patriots didn't see last time, and rookie tight end Dawson Knox, they're also factors in this passing game. Alex, knowing that Jonathan Jones is out for this game, we know that now, that's official, Jason McCourty is at best limited with his own groin injury. Do you think this is a game where Josh Allen is going to test the New England secondary, especially in the slot? I mean, they certainly could.

It would make sense. But I think the more pressing issue is that the Patriots have struggled to cover running backs in tight ends this year, especially in the second half of the season. And you mentioned Devin Singletary, who's a threat in the passing game. Dawson Knox has been one of the big rookie surprises of this year at tight end. That guy's a legitimate weapon. So, I think they could, but the fact of the matter is, even without Jonathan Jones, even without Jason McCourty, you still have, obviously, Steph Gilmore, although he'll probably draw Brown. But then you have JC Jackson, who's been playing out of his mind the last couple of weeks.

Or Juwan Williams, who we don't know much about, but is a second-round pick. There is some talent there. So they certainly could pick on him, but I think you have more of a – I don't want to call it a short thing because nothing's a short thing in the NFL. But I think if you're the Bills, you take the matchup, you know the numbers give you the advantage in, and that's attacking with the backs, with Devin Singletary in the flat, and with Dawson Knox. So that's where I'm looking upon the Bills. Yeah, and I completely agree with you, and I'm glad that you kind of talked to some Patriots fans,

even myself included, off the ledge a little bit when we did see the news that Jonathan Jones was out and look we probably knew that early on this week he didn't practice on Tuesday didn't practice on Wednesday wasn't a good sign you didn't expect to see him out there on Thursday you know with any type of miraculous recovery you figured he was going to be out uh normally conventional wisdom would say that well JC Jackson may be pulled into the slot and that's where you'll see a little bit of Juwan Williams, who you mentioned. There obviously is a lot of talent there for a second-round pick. He's a tough physical corner, not a lot of experience, so that could be a concern. But ultimately, I think you hit the nail right on the head when you said that.

They'll take the matchups, especially with the tight ends, then covering backs out of the backfield. That has been a little bit more of a struggle. This is definitely a Patriots secondary that dares you to throw on them. They love to that. They're ball hawking, and we've seen them do it so many times. So I think that's great insight. And it does lead me nicely into my next question,

and that's Buffalo likes to pound the ball early and often in their running game. In the first meeting between these two teams, we saw Frank Gore had success. He ran for 109 yards, only 17 carries. That's a 6.4-yard average. The Bills rank fifth in the league, averaging almost 135 yards per game on the ground. Now, this year, the Patriots' defense has had some occasional struggles stopping the run, although they still allow only 98 yards per game, and the defensive front, led by Danny Shelton, Lawrence Guy, even Adam Butler, they've had a great second half of the season. For the Bills, Devin Singletary, again, we mentioned that he was not active in the first game with a groin injury.

He's their leading rusher. There is also the consideration of Josh Allen being able to extend plays with his legs and get in the running game as well. From your analysis of this team, how might the Patriots look to balance both containing Singletary from a running perspective as well as Allen's mobility, especially on third downs, because that's where he's been pretty effective? Yeah, I think with Singletary, you worry about him more on the edge in the passing,

and that goes hand-in-hand with containing Josh Allen. You can't give the Bills the edge. If you give the Bills the edge, it that goes hand-in-hand with containing Josh Allen, and you can't give the Bills the edge. If you give the Bills the edge, it's going to be a nasty game, and that's on Collins, on Van Noy, maybe on Hightower. This could be one of those games where they play him on the edge a little bit, perhaps. But when it comes to Josh Allen, for me it's the red zone. That's where I'm worried about him.

He's the one who leads the league in quarterback rushing touchdowns, not Lamar Jackson. It's Josh Allen. And what he lacks being able to fit a ball into a tight window, which he needs to do in the red zone, he makes up for by being able to put the ball in the end zone himself. So the Patriots defense, especially when they've had those games where they struggle against the run.

You look at last week against Cincinnati, and I think this could be a very similar game in terms of against the run. When they have to defend the run, they've made up for it by holding teams to field goals in the red zone. Teams get to the end goal, then the Patriots defense locks down, and they force a field goal. The Bills are a very difficult team to do that against because of what Josh Allen can do with his legs down near the goal line. So if you're the Patriots, third down is big. I get that, but I think this could in some ways be a bend-don't-break game. I think they'll give Josh Allen the keepers on third down.

They don't want him to, but I think they'll let him keep the ball and take off on third down if it means Singletary's not burning them for 25, 30 yards on a wheel route. The real issue for me with Josh Allen is when you get inside the 20, can you stop him from carrying the ball himself into the end zone, whether it be on a designed quarterback run or a broken play scramble. That's where they need to make sure they have somebody on them. And again, the two guys I'll go back to, Jamie Collins, Kyle Van Nooy, I'm not necessarily saying they need to spy Josh Allen, but you have to have eyes on him down there.

You cannot let him break contain. You have to force him to stay in the red zone and find the read and make the throw because he's not going to be able to do that consistently enough to put up the points the Bills need to win this game. Excellent perspective, and I'm glad that you mentioned a couple of points that I just want to expound upon very briefly because you said it eloquently. What the Patriots need to do is to be able to give in a sense almost give Josh Allen those third down looks because containing him

within the pocket is the way to beat this this team and especially this quarterback and I think you said that very well the other part of that is the fact that the Patriots bend don't break is going to be difficult to employ it's something that they probably need to consider and need to do, like you said, but it's a little bit difficult when it comes to this team, especially with Allen, because he is so prolific in being able to make things happen near the goal line with his legs. The Bills are sort of a tricky team. The Bills are sort of a tricky team.

You didn't really see this in the NFL, and it's popped up in the last two or so years, maybe because the Patriots have had so much success with Ben, don't break the bills. Almost want you to play Ben, don't break on them because they struggle in between the twenties. They're fine in the red zone. That's actually where their strength is. They struggle in between the twenties.

So Ben, don't break in some ways actually plays to what they can do, which you, you wouldn't be saying that about any team in the league, even three years ago. This is such a new concept. But with these bigger mobile quarterbacks now and the emergence of tight ends, bend-don't-break isn't always going to work for the Patriots like it did in the past,

and this is one of those rare games where you're kind of playing in the Bills' hands if you do that. Now, it doesn't mean it won't work, but the Bills aren't necessarily great at chunk plays. John Brown, the lone exception, Bills aren't necessarily great at chunk plays. It's going to take them some time to work their way into the red zone. Once they get to the red zone, they're comfortable. So it's going to be interesting to see how the Patriots play that. Absolutely. And of course, it's going to be a matchup that everybody's got their eyes on. And Alex, we have discussed now how the Patriots' defense will look or possibly look to contain

Josh Allen and the Bills' offense. But to win, you have to score points. And the Pats' offense hasn't exactly been as prolific at doing that this year as opposed to years past. In just a moment, Alex will offer his insight on exactly what Tom Brady and the Pats' offense might do to break on through against this formidable Bills defense. Once again, I'm speaking with Alex Barth of CLNS Media. And Alex, a lot of eyes have been on Tom Brady and the Pats offense lately.

And there's some items to unwrap there. But let's start with the Patriots running attack and how that could be a factor against this Bills defense. The Bills defense, arguably the best and most complete defense that the Pats have faced this year, but one area where they could be somewhat vulnerable is defending the run. Buffalo allows an average of 101.4 yards per game. That's good for 10th in the league. That's a solid ranking, but when you take a closer look, it shows a little bit of a different story. The unit ranks 19th in average allowed per rush at 4.3 yards per attempt.

So teams have enjoyed some success there. To me, the Patriots runners, especially guys like Sonny Michel and Rex Burkhead, need to take advantage of that, specifically after they both put out pretty solid efforts against Cincy last Sunday. Do you believe that the Patriots runners can have success tomorrow against the Buffalo defense? I do. And the big one for me, I think you said that stat there.

I actually lost you for a second. But the shotgun runs, the Bills, did you mention that or no? No, I didn't mention the shotgun runs. It was the average allowed per rush at 4.3 yards per attempt. Gotcha. Sorry, I dropped that there for a second. The Bills against shotgun runs are allowing seven yards to carry. So that to me, we know how Josh McDaniels loves those shotgun runs, right?

It's almost to a fault. But this is the time Josh McDaniels break them all out. The shotgun sweeps, the shotgun draws, shotgun whatever. Rex Burkhead, James White get them both in the backfield, even go pony formation or just one. But if the Patriots run the ball out of the shotgun, I think they can gash the Bills. I really do. When you get under center and it's Sonny Michel in the one back formation, or just one, but if the Patriots run the ball out of the shotgun, I think they can gash the Bills. They really do.

When you get under center and it's Sonny Michel in the one-back formation, it gets a little bit tougher because the Bills have a good defensive front. Ed Oliver has been an outstanding addition for that defense. A guy like Shaq Lawson can set the edge, and then, of course, they've got a couple of great veteran linebackers back there in Lorenzo Alexander and Jerry Hughes, and Jerry Hughes. Jerry Hughes is more of a defensive end, but those are guys who can stop the run. This is a game where it hurts to not have a fullback, certainly.

I think if you had somebody like James Devlin leading the way, it helps, but we're going to see whether it's Matt Lacoste, whether it's Landon Roberts, whether it's an extra offensive lineman they put back there, whether it's Danny Shelton. I think this is a game where we see the Patriots throw somebody back there at that fullback formation in order to run under center because the Bills have struggled a bit, but they certainly have the ability to stop it if they can get some momentum. So for me, for the Patriots, shotgun runs and then off of that play action

screen, I think it could be a – and we say this every week, and it hasn't been, but I'll double down – should be a big game, James White game tomorrow. Yeah, I think it could be a, and we say this every week, and it hasn't been, but I'll double down, should be a big James White game tomorrow. Yeah, I agree. I think that James White definitely is primed to be able to have a breakout game. Catching the ball out of the backfield is something he's so adept at. You look for maybe mismatches. If Burkhead is matched up with a linebacker, that could be something they could exploit. And we do need to see some ability from Sony to be able to run the football.

And I think that's really the most effective way, and I think you brought that up and made some excellent points, especially about the stat about the shotgun runs. That's a huge statistic. Definitely keep a shy eye on that, folks, tomorrow when you're watching this game. And ultimately, Alex, there's always a lot of speculation about Tom Brady and the Patriots passing game. It's probably the most talked about storyline other than maybe some injuries. But there is also an injury concern with Brady. People think that his elbow, that he's more than just a bit bothered by this. And that may be a factor in his reduced productivity as of late.

But the Bills secondary has performed well all season as led by tre'davious white six interceptions uh buffalo allows only 190.5 passing yards per game that's third in the league their third overall in defense as we said before levi wallace jordan poyer micah hyde that is a tremendous secondary the unit does play well, and in the first game that the Patriots played against the Bills, they held Brady to just 150 yards passing in the first. So Julian Edelman was limited in that game as well, because I think they did a nice job of bracketing him with linebackers underneath and put extra attention out of the slot. In your opinion, with Brady maybe favoring that elbow a little bit, how do you believe he's going to find ways to get others involved, especially knowing that Julian's not going to be at 100%?

Who do you look for in this game to have a breakout game in the passing game? Josh McDaniels, if we're being honest, they've got to figure out ways to get guys open. Because between Brady's elbow and this Bill's secondary, the receivers getting open on their own is going to be a struggle, as it's been all year. And I thought some of what they did with Nikhil Harry last week worked very well.

The screens, the end-arounds, I think end-arounds to Harry should bookmark that for this week. I think we see at least one more of those. That should be effective. But at the end of the day, Brady's banged up. I don't think Edelman's playing if the division's already locked up. I really don't think he is. I think they have him out there because they really need him.

I think they have him out there because he's a distraction. Patriots should run the ball 40 times. Both teams should, really. This should be an old-school, you know, 80 combined runs, 10-3 football game. That's what we should be looking at on Saturday. If both teams play to their strengths, the ball will barely be in the air. So if you look at what the Bills

did to the Patriots last time, you mentioned the 150 passing yards, but ultimately they held the Patriots to 224 yards. That's the Patriots' worst yardage total this season. It's not even close. You think of what they've done in the second half and the offensive struggle, but from 5-2, their

worst yardage performances, they've been held under 300 yards five times. It's anywhere from 298 to 278, so the separation of 20 yards. To go from 2-1, you're looking at 40-something yards in difference. So the Patriots threw the ball almost 40 times week four against Buffalo. Whatever they did that week,

they need to do the exact opposite. So that, to me, says run the ball, run the ball, run the ball, and then, again, like I said, they've got to get creative. Screens, end arounds. Maybe this is the game that James White throws another pass, or somebody decides Tom Brady throws a pass. I think you've got to get aggressive. I think when you have chances on an offense, you need to capitalize. So, to me, the breakout is Josh McDaniels. He's had a lot of heat this year, and this is a game that depending on how they do,

the result's going to weigh heavily on how he does in the game he calls. If they win, I think everybody's going to talk about what a great game Josh McDaniels has. If they lose, I think a lot of the blame will go on him. Yeah, definitely. So glad that you made that point about McDaniels, and that's something that I actually touched on here on Locked on Patriots yesterday with our mutual friend Steve Balistrieri, who was my guest. We talked about the game planning and how the game planning needs to be solid.

It needs to be something that really gives the Bills different looks. I like the fact that you brought up perhaps we see some more trickery this week. Perhaps we see, you know, James White drop back for a pass. Maybe even Mohamed Sanu. We haven't seen him do that yet. He's definitely capable of doing that. He's got a couple of touchdown passes on his resume. Things like that are where you pull out all the stops, and I think the Patriots are at that point. Not necessarily

because they're desperate, but I think because it's the best way to get this offense involved and maybe even take a little pressure off Tom, allow him to play his game a little bit better and settle in and be a bigger factor than we've seen him in the last couple of games, which is un-Brady-like, but ultimately, as long as the Patriots are putting up wins, that's something I think that anybody in the locker room would take any day of the week and twice on Sunday. But this week, it's going to be twice on Saturday. Alex, I can't thank you enough for coming on today. You take time out of your busy schedule on an abbreviated week to join me here on Locked

On Patriots, lend your wisdom and counsel and great pearls of wisdom for our listeners to watch for tomorrow. Before I let you go, my friend, please let all of our listeners know where they can find you on social media and where they can read your great work. You can find me on Twitter at RealAlexBarth, B-A-R-T-H, at PatriotsDLNS on Twitter

is where we aggregate all of our content. Excellent. Thank you so much. And as always, please, my best to Mike, to Sierra, to Evan. Enjoy the game tomorrow. Best wishes. And if I don't speak to you beforehand, please have a very happy holiday and a very happy New Year as well. Thank you very much. You too. Anytime. Thanks, Alex.

And it's that time again, Alex. Well, quite honestly, who cares if I stay in the win column? You want to make sure that the Patriots stay in the win column. But it won't be easy this week, folks. As you heard Alex and I just discuss, look for the Patriots to try to run the ball between the tackles this week. This will help a passing game that will need it, going against an outstanding pass defense and a star-wide receiver that might be a little bit banged up. Because of that, look for Sonny Michel, Rex Burkhead, and as Alex said, James White, the big factors this week, not only running the football, but also catching passes out of the backfield. They need to be physical and get yards after the catch. To do that, the offensive line

is going to need to play their best game of the year and provide some of their best protection of the year. All of the linemen, especially the guards, have to win their matchups. From a defensive standpoint, the Patriots should be able to control the Bills' offense. Bills' offense is much better as of late, but their Achilles heel is throwing the football. Josh Allen is very good at extending plays with his legs and has become a much better passer as of late. However, he still has occasional issues with accuracy, and he's prone to make mistakes. The defense will have to force the issue this week.

They can't lay back and just try to contain Allen in the pocket. They will have to get after him hard this week and do all they can to keep Buffalo out of the red zone. In the final analysis, look for both defenses to be very aggressive this week. This almost certainly will not be an offensive shootout. Most likely, it will be another defensive slugfest. The stakes are high in this one. Playoff seeding, division titles, all up for grabs right now. But folks, the key thing here to remember is that the Patriots have written and played this

script before. And as my good friend Steve Balistrieri, who was also yesterday's guest here on Locked On Patriots, often says, they won't let the moment get too big for them. Of the collective football units you'll see on the field on Saturday, the Patriots defense is the best of them, at least in my opinion. And I believe they will be up to the challenge. I predict that they will get at least one and maybe even two key turnovers, along with some timely stops and big moments. Look for the Pats to score a razor-thin victory at Gillette, pun intended, by a final score of 17-14,

clinching the AFC East division crown for the hometown team and giving Pats Nation a pretty nice holiday gift. And speaking of holiday gifts, if you're looking for a last-minute fun sports gift for the holidays, go to BreakingTea.com slash LockedOn. Breaking Tea makes sports t-shirts to show pride in teams' most passionate moments, and they're great for all fans. Go to BreakingTea.com slash LockedOn,

and then feel free to search the site for great shirts and fun sports gifts. And as for me, I will be back on Monday to recap Saturday's Pats Bills matchup. I'll break it all down for you, and we'll see if I was right in my assessment. As always, make sure to join me each and every day here on the Locked On Patriots podcast, and subscribe to Locked On Patriots via your preferred podcast provider. Once again, I'm Mike DeBate. Thanks again to Alex Barth for his time and insight today. But most of all, I thank you so much for listening and for staying locked

in to Locked On Patriots. Have a great weekend, everybody, and enjoy the game on Saturday.