Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Believe: New England Patriots & Drake Maye Set to Challenge Seattle

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Pats have a much better shot to win this game than the national media would like you to believe. We'll tell you why it's our last deep dive preview. This is Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattles. Born and raised in New England, been covering the paths for the past 16 years.

Starting point is 00:00:33 also the co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattels and a sports radio veteran. Welcome to Lock On Patriots, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. Before I go on, want to let you know we'll be doing a live post game on Sunday night following Super Bowl 60. Check us out on YouTube. On today's Super Bowl preview in the third segment, a critical Seahawk gets injured. our list of X factors and a final prediction. In the second segment, find out why this Pat's defense might just be a problem for the Seahawks.

Starting point is 00:01:12 But first, cover six, have you heard about it? We'll talk about that and more. Today's episode is brought to you by Fandul. It's the last call for football on Fandul. If you're a new customer, bet just $500 and get $200 and bonus bets if you win. We are here. the final deep dive preview for a football game in the 2025 season, even though on the calendar, it is currently 2026.

Starting point is 00:01:41 That's how it all works out, right? There's still a lot to unpack about this football game, and we're going to unpack most of it on this episode. Let me start here. I am not confident that the paths are going to move the football consistently on offense this Sunday. The key is, will the Patriots be able, capable of making the most of the opportunities that will present themselves? Because let's not get this twisted. Seattle is a great defense.

Starting point is 00:02:13 They are very talented, but they are not perfect. They are not flawless. And opportunities will show themselves on Sunday. Let's start with unlocking explosives. We talked about it earlier this week. The explosive plays in this game going to be just gigantic. Both offenses depend highly on explosive plays. If you look at Seattle defensively in the postseason,

Starting point is 00:02:37 they are playing 40% man coverage on third downs. I think that opens the door for Drake May. That opens the door for him to extend plays. When the rush might be coming after him, he can extend, he can roll out, hopefully find a friend. I think with so much man coverage on third down and maybe even more man coverage in the game than we might anticipate, that also opens the opportunity for Drake May to scramble.

Starting point is 00:03:05 Now, whether or not Seattle will use a spy, we'll see. They haven't done a ton of that during this season. But on third down especially, I do believe May will have opportunities to extend drives. He's done that all postseason long. He's done that all season long. I think that will be there for him on Sunday. He has to escape the pressure, though. If we're going into this game on Sunday thinking there's going to be no pressure on Drake May,

Starting point is 00:03:31 we are pretty much being delusional. We are lying to ourselves. There is going to be pressure on May. Will Campbell is going to get beat. Jared Wilson is likely going to get beat. Morgan Moses might get beat. We have to accept and embrace that idea and understand that if slash when those guys do get beat by this pass rush, that May is able to escape that.

Starting point is 00:03:57 pressure and still make plays. Make something out of nothing. Make sure you're not taking negative plays on Sunday. How about some design runs? Wouldn't be surprised with May being a full participant at practice the last couple of days, would not be surprised if Josh McDaniels ends up calling some design runs out of his back pocket. Now, I do think that's more likely in the low red zone area, which we have seen. We saw it against the bills. We've seen it a couple of other times. I think that's something we should be ready for. When we talk about the Patriots trying to make the most of their opportunities, we also have to talk about throwing the ball down field.

Starting point is 00:04:38 Again, this is the idea of the deep shots, but let's get specific here. Let's drill down. Two or three deep shots in this game can change this game. I'm looking at Kishan Booty versus Josh Job. I believe that Kishon Booty is capable of making a play down the boundary against Josh Job. Josh Job has given up a couple of plays. He's given up on coverage a couple of times,

Starting point is 00:05:06 given up a step or so. And I believe that Booty has the ability to find himself open early in this game. All it takes is one. So let's keep a close eye on Kashan Booty versus Josh Job. When that matchup presents itself, I feel like May is going to take a shot. Let's also think about Pop Douglas and Kyle Williams against Devin Witherspoon in the slot. I've talked about this multiple times on multiple platforms.

Starting point is 00:05:34 I will remind you again, Devin Witherspoon moves along the line of scrimmage. And when he's in the slot, he has had some struggles with speed. Ben Solac of ESPN wrote, The Rams put up 136 passing yards on Devin Witherspoon in the NFC championship game. He is not big and he is very aggressive downhill so he can lose downfield leverage and struggle. Yes, yes he can. Let's get into count the cover six conversation, right? Cover six, cover six.

Starting point is 00:06:02 There's no doubt the numbers you know them. Phil Perry has been talking about them, Evan Lizarre, everybody's been talking about Drake May's struggles versus cover six. There's no doubt he's had his struggles, but there are counters to the cover six. There are things the Patriots can do offensively that will attack that coverage. Here are a few things that I saw while watching the Seahawks deep. defense over the span of three games when I watched the film earlier this week. Here are some things that worked against the Seahawks defense.

Starting point is 00:06:34 Bunch formations. Trips to the right, to the left. Watch out for bunch formations. I'm interested to see if Josh McDaniels rolls out the three by one, three receivers on one side and one receiver on the other. That has given Seattle some trouble. Vertical routes. How about a vertical clear-out while you have routes underneath

Starting point is 00:06:58 that has also worked at times against this Seahawks defense? Whole shots. That's when you're trying to fit it between the cornerback and the safety, right? We've seen May make a number of those throws this year. He missed one to pop against Denver, but he has been very good hitting those whole shots. He will have an opportunity to hit a hole shot in this game on Sunday. Something else that you will see.

Starting point is 00:07:23 cover six, you can attack the flats. Stefan Diggs quickly, right? Those quick routes he runs, four or five yards, boom, get it done. Pop Douglas, same thing. His quickness, his agility, he can get open in the flat. Ramandre Stevenson in the flat. So these are the types of things. And one last, one last aspect of an offense that the Patriots can roll out there against

Starting point is 00:07:47 the Seahawks defense is that cheat motion. I talked about it earlier in the week, but Tess Johnson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, cheat motion, cheat motion, cheat motion. He did it at least a handful of times in that game against Seattle, and it worked. It worked a couple of times. It got Tess Johnson open. It got them open downfield. So keep an eye out for that.

Starting point is 00:08:09 Bunch formations, vertical routes clearing the underneath, whole shots towards the boundary, throws to the flats, and some of that cheat motion, that late motion right before the snap of the football. Seattle loves playing nickel defense, dime defense, and that begs the question, will the Patriots be able to run the football with six offensive linemen? If they are capable of running against the nickel and the dime, Seattle's going to have to react to that.

Starting point is 00:08:36 Seattle's done a very good job of slowing down run game, they're the best run defense in football while they are in their nickel and their dime. If the Patriots go out there with heavy personnel and do something that teams have not been capable of doing consistently, which is with their big personnel, run the football on Seattle. If they can do that, that opens up some things. Because if you're running with six offensive linemen looks,

Starting point is 00:09:00 that means you can throw out of those looks. And Doug Farrar of SB Nation, he wrote this week about the Patriots passing out of six offensive linemen looks. He wrote, Drake May has the NFL's most touchdown passes in the NFL's highest passer rating with a minimum of 20 attempts when throwing out of six offensive linemen looks. It's not just a red zone thing. Think about Hunter Henry versus the Chargers in the wild card round.

Starting point is 00:09:28 That touchdown, that nice pass over the top from May. That was a pass to Henry out of a six offensive lineman look. So early in this game, if the Patriots have six offensive linemen out there and they start to run the football with any success, that's a great sign. because they will no doubt attack with their tight ends out of that six offensive linemen look. So those are some of the things we're looking for. That's how this Patriots offense can attack the Seahawks defense. There are going to be opportunities, and you've got to make the most of them because it's not going to be easy.

Starting point is 00:10:06 Some tight window throws, some perfect reads from May and his receivers, but there are opportunities against this Seattle defense. Let's hope that they make the most of them. All right. Coming up, the recipe to slow down this Seahawks offense. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Finding a doctor you actually like and feel like discovering a diamond in the rough. You want someone in network nearby with availability, but you also want a doctor who really listens, makes you feel comfortable, explains things clearly, and helps you walk out feeling confident about your next step.

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Starting point is 00:13:14 Don't forget to comment. And of course, don't forget to subscribe. We are well short of our nine. thousand subscriber goal. Let's make one final push over the next few days leading into this game. And speaking of the game, we will be doing a live post game on Sunday night following Patriots Seahawks. There has not been nearly enough respect for the Patriots defense when people have been talking about this matchup. I understand that the Seahawks have a great defense, very talented. I said it earlier in the show. But people are overlooking the Patriots defense.

Starting point is 00:13:49 I understand all the extra asterisks placed on the L.A. matchup and the Houston matchup and the Denver I truly understand it. But here's the biggest thing. The Patriots defensive line and their pressure against Denver should have opened up everybody's eyes because you could talk about the Chargers O' line. You could talk about the Texans O' line. I get it. But Denver's offensive line is one of the best in football and the Patriots absolutely dominant. that O line in the trenches. And if they could dominate Denver's O line, they can bring a lot of heat and trouble

Starting point is 00:14:27 to this Seattle offensive line. They can make it tough. The Patriots defense can make it tough on Seattle. Let me tell you how. Number one, minimize Seattle's bread and butter. What is Seattle's bread and butter? It's play action. Play action, play action, play action.

Starting point is 00:14:42 Phil Perry, NBC Sports, Boston. He wrote this week, when using play action, the Seahawks ranked first in EPA per play, yards per pass, and second in touchdowns. Pete Collins from the Foxborough Fellows podcast, he posted, Sam Donald completed 80% of play action throws in the red zone with nine touchdowns. This is an offense that absolutely adores play action. Play action historically makes it easier for the quarterback.

Starting point is 00:15:11 They are trying to not put a ton on Sam Donald's plate. Here's the good news. New England's defense, their past defense this year, has been number one against play action. Back to my buddy, Phil Perry. When you look at the play action, right, and you think about how good San Donald is with play action, and you think about the Patriots past defense number one against play action, why is that all matter? Because when Sam Donald is not working out of the play action, Phil Perry's got the numbers.

Starting point is 00:15:44 Donald's non-play action pass attempts yielded just negative 0.07 EPA per play, which ranked 23rd in the NFL. He tied for the league lead in interceptions when pressured, and that's according to pro football focus. So when Seattle has the play action game going, Sam Donald is cooking, the pass offense is cooking. You take away the play action from Donald, no longer cooking. Sam Donald, no longer cooking. And remember, again, the Patriots past defense all the way up to this point, number one, past defense against play action. Number two, besides play action, just like every single time we talk about the Shanahan offense, even the McVeigh offense, those offenses are run-based. And Clint Kubiak, father is Gary Kubiatt.

Starting point is 00:16:38 We all know the links, right? this offense is based on the run. And the fact is Seattle was not a very effective run offense this season. And when you look at the numbers, they're run blocking, 27th and yards before contact per attempt, 25th in EPA per rush, 24th in success rate. They give up the fifth highest stuffed rate in football in the regular season. They have been very up and down when it comes to run game. in the regular season, I would argue it was mostly down.

Starting point is 00:17:11 Now, yes, Kenneth Walker has been, he's been good. He has been good in the playoffs. Has it been great both games, but he's been good. And if you look at Kenneth Walker, he's been good against stacked boxes. Here's some good news. The Patriots don't stack the box often. When you look at Kenneth Walker's numbers when defenses don't stack the box, he's actually worse, which is pretty interesting, right?

Starting point is 00:17:35 You would expect the running back to be better against, lighter boxes and worse against stacked boxes, it's the opposite with Kenneth Walker. Now, what about Kenneth Walker? Watching him on film, he's got some wiggle. He can make you miss. I think people look at Kenneth Walker. They believe he's just a powerback or they think he's a power back. He's got plenty of wiggle.

Starting point is 00:17:55 And you've got to, if you're the Patriots, and this is something that Mike Rabel said on day one, introductory press conference, effort and finish. If you're the Patriots, you have to tackle Kenneth Walker to the whistle. Do not give up until that whistle blows because he will keep churning and churning and churning. He will get extra yards. So watch out for the wiggle. And when you wrap him up, make sure the play is dead until you say, okay, enough is enough. One more thing about Kenneth Walker to watch out for.

Starting point is 00:18:27 He loves bouncing it out. Loves bouncing it out every once in a while. So watch out for that. In the postseason, he was good against San Francisco. I did not think he was very good against the Rams. Rams did a pretty good job against Seattle's run game. Of course, the question for the Patriots is, will Robert Spillane play? He's been pushing that idea.

Starting point is 00:18:46 Mike Vrable was less, you know, committed to the idea of Robert Spillane playing on Sunday, but Spillane was back out there for practice on Thursday. He was limited, but he was out there. I would expect him to at least try to give it a go. So here's the recipe. when you combine what we talked about earlier in the week with what we just discussed. The recipe for the Patriots to slow down the Seahawks offense. It goes like this.

Starting point is 00:19:13 Pressure. Get pressure on Sam Donald. Blitz him. Change your looks up front. Confuse him. But get pressure on Sam Donald. Don't forget, Sam Donald has been good off structure, off schedule.

Starting point is 00:19:26 He has been good extending plays. He will run and scramble at times. He is not this immobile statue. but get pressure on him. He's a completely different quarterback when he has pressure. If you want to see Sam Donald possibly turn into a pumpkin, you have to pressure him. So that's one, two, limit the play action success.

Starting point is 00:19:46 If you could play well against the play action to go along with some pressure, that will drive Donald crazy. Limit the run game. Because if you're limiting the run, you're limiting the play action, you're getting some pressure, you're making Donald in this offense uncomfortable. take away the first read.

Starting point is 00:20:05 Donald's numbers are not nearly as good when you take away that first read, whether it's Jackson, Smith, and Jigber, or somebody else. And if you can pressure, if you can limit the run, limit the play action, take away the first read from Donald. That's going to result in a number of third and long. So we talked about this at the beginning of the week. The Seahawks are not good on third and long. And finally, mix it up against Jackson Smith and Jim.

Starting point is 00:20:32 Be physical with him at the line of scrimmage at times. Play him and man coverage at times. Keep an eye on him in the backfield. Shadow him with a safety at times. Shade that coverage if need be. That's the recipe. A critical Seattle injury, X factors in my game prediction. Coming up next.

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Starting point is 00:23:09 Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe if you're watching on YouTube. And don't forget, live post game Sunday night following Super Bowl 60 right here on YouTube, Lockdown Patriots podcast with you. Before we get to some leftover thoughts, X factors in my prediction, congratulations to Josh McDaniels. As I record this on Thursday night, he has officially been named the AP assistant coach of the year. So congratulations to Josh McDaniels, who has been tremendous.

Starting point is 00:23:36 the vast majority of this season as the offensive coordinator. I, before getting to my prediction, lots of leftover thoughts on this game to get to. Number one, Nick Eamon Worry, who is the safety, nickelback, all sorts of just a chess piece. He plays all over the place. There's a lot of things for Seattle. He injured his ankle at Wednesday's practice. He plans on playing. Inevitably, the question is how healthy is he?

Starting point is 00:24:04 How limited will he be? He's really the Kyle Hamilton of this defense. When we talked about Kyle Hamilton, when the Patriots were getting ready for the Ravens, we discussed how Kyle Hamilton is moving all over the place. He plays inside the box an awful lot, but he can play on the back end. He can cover all sorts of different players, different positions.

Starting point is 00:24:22 He is really a chess piece. And Nick Eamon Worry has been that dude for the Seahawks. I mean, just watching the game against the Rams. He shuts down Pooka Nakuwa one-on-one on one play. and then he's stopping the run on another play. He is just very difficult to deal with. He did not practice on Thursday. He did not practice on Thursday.

Starting point is 00:24:44 So even if he goes on Sunday, it'll be fascinating to see how healthy he truly is and how he looks. Because I talked about it earlier in this episode, you look at the nickel coverage, the dime coverage. Seattle can defend the run in those packages a lot because of what Eam and Worry can do. So if he is limited, that could change an awful lot about Seattle's defense. Keep a close eye on that over the weekend. Let's talk about experience.

Starting point is 00:25:13 Patriots have a ton of it. The aforementioned Josh McDaniels, this is his 10th Super Bowl. Mike Frable, four Super Bowls. And what to expect, right? What to expect if you're walking into your first Super Bowl? You have a coaching staff. You're the Patriots. You have guys that have been there before.

Starting point is 00:25:30 Mike Vrable understands what it's like to be a player, playing in this game. Josh McDaniels understands the preparation, the planning. He understands how you need to adjust during a huge game like this. These guys can talk to the players about the pregame warm-up and how you're off the field much earlier than usual. They can talk about the halftime show, which is going to last forever in how to stay focused and involved.

Starting point is 00:25:55 They can tell these guys about how they can best conserve their energy. You have an adrenaline dump a lot at the beginning of a big game, right? how do you react to that practice prep there's the story that josh mcdaniel spoke with mike vrable uh you know before the prep started and said you know i think we should leave some prep for the following week the week of the game so these guys they stay you know they stay motivated they stay focused and we're teaching them new things so that they don't get bored we want to keep them involved and keep them active because you could have a lot of downtime if you don't do that. So I love the experience that is there for the Patriots.

Starting point is 00:26:37 These players can lean on that. Let's get to some X factors for Sunday. Special teams. Haven't talked a lot about it this week, but Rashid Shaheed is dangerous. Of course, Marcus Jones for the Patriots is dangerous on punt returns. I would expect Trayvion Henderson to play a role in the kickoff return game. I think he could, you know, break out a couple of runs if he can get going. Seattle, very difficult. Second team all pro punter, but they are the second best team in special teams in DVOA this year. So they are the second best special teams unit in DVOA in 2025. Very difficult to deal with. Other X factors. We talked about Will Campbell and Morgan Moses and protecting the quarterback earlier this week.

Starting point is 00:27:26 Special attention to not only Jared Wilson, but also. Also, Garrett Bradbury and Michael Wenow, the interior of this offensive line for the Patriots, they're going to have to do a very good job. Byron Murphy is incredibly difficult to deal with. Then you've got Leonard Williams. We remember him. You've got Jaron Reed. These are some big boys and these are some guys that can get after the quarterback

Starting point is 00:27:48 and create that pressure in the middle. You're big boys have to be better than their big boys. So Garrett Bradbury, I'm looking at you. You can't be trucked by Byron Murphy. You can't be trucked, my man. You can't let that interior defensive line pressure get to Drake May. Now, of course, May, his athleticism, hopefully he can break away from some of that pressure.

Starting point is 00:28:11 But I'm looking at Jared Wilson, Garrett, Bradbury, and Michael Wenow. Ramandre Stevenson, gigantic X factor in this game. I talked about it earlier in the week. I'm not super confident that Patriots will be able to consistently run the football. However, I also mentioned earlier in this. episode about flats getting open in the flat and how the Seahawks, I mentioned it earlier this week, the Seahawks, they force offenses to be patient, which means what? It means checkdowns.

Starting point is 00:28:41 And checkdowns can go to Ramandre Stevenson. Can Stevenson create some extra yards out of those checkdowns? Can he get anything in the run game? But most importantly, pass protection against stunts, games, surprise pressure looks, pass protection. And for Seattle, AJ Barner, tight end, haven't talked about him this week, 6-6, 251, 52 catches, 519 receiving yards, and six touchdowns. He could be an issue in the red zone. Don't overlook him. All right, let's get to the prediction.

Starting point is 00:29:14 The national media, this is no joke, ESPN, the NFL network, the athletic, the MMQB, 85 to 90% of the national media has picked Seattle. to win this game. It's the most lopsided Super Bowl, as far as predictions go, that I have ever seen, ever seen. I don't think there's going to be a lot of offense in this game, unless you've got special teams working and you create some short fields. I don't think they're going to be a ton of points. Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. Ben Solac of ESPN wrote about the Seahawks. 14.1 percent of their drives ended with a turnover. Only the Vikings gave the ball away at a higher rate.

Starting point is 00:29:59 Next-gen stats has Sam Donald with a 7.2% turnover-worthy play rate when pressured. The worst rate for all starting quarterbacks this season. And he loses the ball both ways, throwing picks and fumbling. Sam Donald has had zero turnovers in three straight games. Is he magically a new guy? I don't think he is. I think Sunday there are going to be two or three turnovers by the Seahawks. I like Vrable in this matchup.

Starting point is 00:30:26 I like an angry Patriots team, and I'm picking the paths. I'm going against the 85 to 90% of the national media, Patriots 20, Seahawks 17. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen for being an everydayer. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C Radio. Don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button and subscribe. And if you're looking for a gift for someone, make it easy.

Starting point is 00:30:51 Check out the Everydayer Club. Add free episodes of this show, exclusive Discord server. access and more. Don't forget till the Super Bowl, subscribers can use code Super Bowl to get one month free of the everydayer club. Subscriptions can be gifted through lockdown patriots. upacast.com. Have a great weekend. Enjoy Sunday as much as you can and we'll see you live for the post game.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Believe: New England Patriots & Drake Maye Set to Challenge Seattle

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