Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Bounce Back: New England Patriots’ A.J. Brown Set to Dominate in 2026

Starting point is 00:00:00 AJ Brown is in New England and we expect a big, big bounceback in 2026. This is Locked on Patriots. You are Locked on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattels. Today's episode is brought to by O'Doo. Great organizations win because operations matter.

Starting point is 00:00:34 and that's why you should get O-Doo. Try for free today at Odo.com slash lockdown. That's O'D-O-O-O-com slash lockdown. On today's show, dissecting one of the team's biggest weaknesses from 2025 and why the paths are ready to address it in the second segment, making the argument to use Drake May's athleticism even more this season. But first, projecting A.J. Brown's 2026. I've given it some time to let the AJ Brown acquisition breathe. We went heavy that first week, right when the deal was made. We talked about it. We talked about it ad nauseum.

Starting point is 00:01:13 But we didn't get to what were a reasonable expectations this upcoming year for AJ Brown. What do I think A.J. Brown is going to do from a productivity standpoint as a New England Patriot in 2026. You go back to last year in Philadelphia, 78 catches. just barely over 1,000 yards at 1,03 yards in seven touchdowns. And I expect A.J. Brown to surpass those numbers. And some of those numbers significantly, significantly surpass those.

Starting point is 00:01:48 Now, Josh McDaniel's the easy go-to. We talked about a lot of what Josh McDaniels does with his wide receivers and how that could impact A.J. Brown. We obviously have had the conversation about Kevin Petulow, who was the Eagles offense. coordinator who was awful last year and quickly fired because of the bad job he did. The Josh McDaniels versus Kevin Petulow conversation isn't even a conversation. It's not close. But let's dive in deeper to what Josh McDaniels has done throughout his history in the NFL

Starting point is 00:02:23 when he has had true alpha wide receivers. Back in 2007, first season. with Josh McDaniels, West Welker had 1,175 yards and eight touchdowns. In the same year, of course, the magical 2007 run that ended badly. Randy Moss, first season with Josh McDaniels, 1,493 yards and 23 touchdowns. But it wasn't just in New England. How about Brandon Marshall? In 2009, Brandon Marshall, 1,120 receiving yards.

Starting point is 00:03:02 and 10 receiving touchdowns. But Nick, that was back in 07. That was back in 2009. Fine. Let's fast forward to just a few years ago in 2022 when Josh McDaniels had Devante Adams on his roster. Devante Adams, his first year with Josh McDaniels, even though Devante Adams complained an awful lot about the scheme,

Starting point is 00:03:24 the system, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Devante Adams still produced at a very high level in Vegas. his first year with Josh McDaniels, 1,516 yards and 14 touchdowns. When Josh McDaniels has worked hand in hand with an alpha wide receiver, and that first year, he gets big time production, whether it was Wes Wrennie Moss, Brennan Marshall, Devante Adams, big time production from those types of receivers. And I think Josh McDaniels is going to,

Starting point is 00:03:59 to scheme A.J. Brown open from time to time. He's not going to have to rely, have to depend on AJ Brown always beating up man coverage. He will scheme A.J. Brown open. He will take advantage of AJ Brown's physical tools. He will take advantage of certain matchups on the field by lining up receivers in a certain spot, making sure he gets a mismatch, at least a couple of times a game, with his number one receiver. A.J. Brown, he still has two to three good years, if not very good years left. I think he has plenty left in the tank as long as he stays healthy, which we have talked enough about.

Starting point is 00:04:43 But Josh McDaniels, come on now. The history is the history. Drake May, come on now. Against Jalen Hertz. We're talking about a quarterback in New England that can, A, make elite throws. And not just elite throws every once in a while. we've seen Drake May make a number of elite throws within games from game to game from month to month. That's what he did last year. Elite pass attempts, finding guys in tight windows,

Starting point is 00:05:13 attacking the middle of the field, being unbelievably accurate downfield. You just you look at what Drake May can do, and it's rather obvious. Drake May alone will boost A.J. Brown's numbers in 2026. It is very difficult for. me to imagine that A.J. Brown, aside from health, would take a step back with the quarterback and the O.C. He now has. Very tough. And the other part of this conversation, and I know A.J. Brown was in Philly, and you have Sequan Barkley running the football, and you have Devante Smith. But let's not sleep on this Patriots offense. I mean, there were a number of things the Patriots offense did last year, which surprised us pleasantly. They were one of the best offenses in football.

Starting point is 00:05:59 and now they've upgraded. Romeo Dobbs, your number two guy. You still have old reliable in Hunter Henry, the two-headed monster in the backfield with Ramandre Stevenson and Trevionn Henderson. And I think Josh McDaniels is going to spread defenses out. He's going to force, not all the time, but at times, he is going to force one-on-one matchups with A.J. Brown.

Starting point is 00:06:26 He's going to trust his quarterback. He's going to trust his alpha receiver. and he's going to say, go out there and make some plays, fellas. I'm going to create those one-on-ones for you. Make it pay for us. Do what you do best. The other part is from a coaching perspective. And we've discussed a lot about the offense.

Starting point is 00:06:48 And again, just a couple minutes ago, the Kevin Petulow versus Josh McDaniels beat down in favor of Josh McDaniels. But let's take a look at the head coach and Mike Frable. I think Mike Vrable clearly understands that A.J. Brown is closer to the end than the beginning of his career. And I believe that the head coach is going to manage A.J. Brown correctly. I think with A.J. Brown in 2006, it is quality, not quantity of snaps. Put A.J. Brown in advantageous positions. You don't have to play them 90% of the time. You don't even have to play him 85% of the time.

Starting point is 00:07:32 But when you play him, if he's playing 70% of the snaps, it's going to be a great 70% of snaps. Like Stefan Diggs last year, he can hover around 55% of the snaps. But when he is out there, the team is doing everything they can to make him the weapon that he can be. Same philosophy, same approach with A.J. Brown. As far as practicing goes,

Starting point is 00:07:58 No need to tax A.J. Brown. As long as Drake May and A.J. Brown show that they have great chemistry, which began at mandatory minicamp, as long as they have that chemistry, and they're on the same page, and A.J. Brown understands the offense, and Drake May is running the offense, and they are sympathetico out on the football field. There's no reason to tax A.J. Brown at practice. And I know A.J. Brown says he wants to practice. He loves practicing, wants to be a leader. Great. Morgan Moses is an awesome leader. but he was managed last year and he will be managed this year.

Starting point is 00:08:33 So just the usage of A.J. Brown, making sure his body is right, making sure that when he steps on the field on a football Sunday, he is as ready to dominate as he possibly can. Doesn't guarantee domination, but you put him in a position to succeed. And I trust Mike Brable to do that and Josh McDaniels do that much more than the guys in Philly did. So with all of that said, what do I think A.J. Brown is going to do in 2006? Here are my non-scientific numbers for you. Here's what I think A.J. Brown will do roughly.

Starting point is 00:09:12 I think instead of 75, 78 catches, I think he breaks the 80 catch point. I think you can mark him down for 85 catches. I think instead of hovering around 1,000 yards, I think you can add a couple of hundred yards to that. So let's say 85 catches, let's say 1,250 yards. And I do think that A.J. Brown will hit double digits in touchdowns this year. I'll give them 10 to be conservative, but I would not be surprised if it's more than 10. And as always, the caveat is stay healthy. But 85, 12, 50, and 10 feels about right for A.J. Brown this upcoming year. I am so excited to watch this offense. I am so excited to watch Drake May to A.J. Brown. Can't wait to watch that connection.

Starting point is 00:10:02 Coming up, run may run. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. Support for today's episode comes from Square, the business platform that helps sellers become neighborhood favorites, whether you're gearing up for a busy season or just trying to keep up with everyday demand. Square keeps your business running smoothly. Square helps businesses simplify the day to day while still giving them room to grow. There's a place. You hit up all the time and you always notice how fast and painless it is to pay.

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Starting point is 00:11:20 Drake May was spectacular during the 2025 regular season, spearheading this offense. But there's another tool in Drake May's back. the Patriots can use even more of in 2026. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer. Get your daily Patriots fix completely ad free by joining the Everydayer Club today. Start your seven day free trial right now and get closer to your team without the interruptions. Click the link in the show notes or go to lockdown patriots. com to claim your free trial. Don't forget, like, comment, subscribe.

Starting point is 00:11:56 You're watching us on YouTube. help us out, build this community. Click that thumbs up, throw a comment in. I want your projections, your predictions for AJ Brown's 2026, and don't forget to subscribe. As we get closer to 10,000 subs, appreciate every single one of you and hope that you are enjoying your June. It's the dead time, but we are giving you the content that I think Patriots fans want and that they need, frankly, during this time of year. We need to get to camp about a month away. All right.

Starting point is 00:12:28 So I poured through Drake May stats all last year. I mean, on a week to week basis here on lockdown Patriots, we went through all the analytics, all the numbers, right, completion percentage over expected, all that stuff. And Drake May was elite in practically every statistical category during his regular season run, which obviously led him to being runner up to the MVP. and I think we all agree or most of us agree he should have been the MVP. His impact, Drake May's impact single-handedly made the Patriots offense the most explosive offense in the NFL. And if you think I'm lying, if you think that's hyperbolic, hold on, wait a minute, pump the brakes.

Starting point is 00:13:17 Warren Sharp posted this several weeks ago. Most explosive offenses in 2025. The fifth most explosive offense. And by the way, defining explosive offense, Warren Sharp makes a note. He's talking about the rate of gaining 15 plus yards per play. So the rate of gaining 15 plus yards per play. Fifth, the Seattle Seahawks.

Starting point is 00:13:49 Fourth, the Buffalo Bills. Third, even with. without Ben Johnson, the Detroit Lions. Second, the Los Angeles Rams. And number one, number one, the New England Patriots. The New England Patriots, when it came to rate of gaining 15 plus yards per play, was the most explosive offense in the entire NFL in 2025. And that right there, my friends, that is a Drake-May statistic.

Starting point is 00:14:22 When you combine Drake May's explosive arm talent, his deep ball accuracy, as I mentioned in the last segment, I mean, the accuracy of those throws down the boundary, they're not a lot of quarterbacks on this planet that can make those types of throws as accurately as Drake May did last year. Think about some of the Kyle Williams catches, right? I mean, the Kyle Williams touchdown against Baltimore. just these dimes, the Kishon booty touchdown in the playoffs against Houston, in bad weather, just a dime.

Starting point is 00:14:59 So when you have that strong arm and you have that deep ball accuracy, you're going to create explosive plays. But the other part of it is Drake May's legs. Drake May's legs played a huge role in the offense last year. Did you know, Drake May had 15 runs in 2025 of 10 or more yards? Now, if that doesn't sound like a lot, I'll put this in perspective. Drake May has had as many runs of 10 plus yards last year, 15, as Ramandre Stevenson did. He had as many runs of 10 plus yards as your number one running back. And when you look at what Drake May did with his legs, the 10 plus yard runs, which are known as explosives in the NFL, right?

Starting point is 00:15:47 When you have runs of 10 or more yards, it's an explosive play. When you look at Drake May compared to other quarterbacks, how did he do among his own, among his brethren? When Drake May, his 15 runs of 10 or more yards last year was tied for fourth most among quarterbacks. So he was literally one of the most explosive quarterbacks when it came to running with the football. But the vast majority of those runs, especially the big runs, were scrambles, right? How many times did Drake May escape from the pocket and scamper 20 yards down the field? A lot of those 10-plus yard runs were scrambling. They were organic.

Starting point is 00:16:35 They just happened. And that's why I think the Patriots will design more runs for Drake May this upcoming year. I would expect more designed runs this season than we saw last season. And that should make Drake May and the offense even more dynamic. And there are reasons why I think we'll see more designed runs. I've been pumping this for the last couple of years if you've been watching me. But I'm really confident and I'm really bullish on this happening this year more than we've seen it. We've seen a few.

Starting point is 00:17:07 We didn't see many at all in 2024. We saw a few last year, especially in the low red zone. Remember after the buy week, you had two runs, two design runs in the red zone by Drake May. I believe both of them ended up being touchdowns. So we saw a little bit of it, but I think we're going to see more of it this year. Drake May can just handle more. He has more on his plate, but he can handle more on his plate. He understands the basics, the fundamentals, the foundation of this offense now.

Starting point is 00:17:37 As we've been discussing throughout this offseason, the next step is the mental step, The next step is developing even deeper familiarity with the offense and Josh McDaniels and the terminology and what you're doing at the line of scrimmage. So the more that Drake May understands this offense and has confidence and it's becoming almost second nature to him means that you can give him more and you can start throwing more plays in the playbook. And you can watch him develop and figure out what's in front of him and understanding that, oh, I can actually switch. to a different play here. I can go audible this and I can actually maybe run the football myself. Maybe I see something in that defense. I know our play call. I know how that defense is going to defend that play call. So now a little bit of sneakiness here. I'm going to call a design run. I'm going to call my own number. I think we're going to see more of that. It's not just going to be

Starting point is 00:18:36 those organic scrambles when you're feeling pressure or nobody's getting open. And the better that you run the football with your running backs and maybe the occasional fullback carry, the better you are at running the football with your running backs, that opens the door for more deception. Because now, you know, these read options, these fakes, those types of things become much more effective when your run game is more effective. So I would go into this season. If I were Josh McDaniels and look, obviously Josh McDaniels knows a heck of a lot more than I do. But if I were Josh McDaniels, I'd be thinking we're going to use Drake May with designed runs more than we did last year. We're going to add another element that the defense has to handle. And I'm not saying run Drake May ragged.

Starting point is 00:19:34 I'm not saying half him run the ball eight times a week. but sprinkling it in. You know, those perfect moments in the red zone when you're going against tougher defenses, when you feel like the defense can't contain the edge and you can maybe sneak Drake Mae out to the edge for a big game. Some short yardage situations where you just don't want to call the quarterback sneak because it might be two, three, four yards instead of one yard or a half a yard.

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Starting point is 00:21:31 That's O-D-O-O-O-com slash lockdown. It was a terrific run for the Pats. last season. But there's a left over area of concern that needs to clearly improve this year. And that's the Red Zone. Thanks for checking out the lockdown podcast network. Now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. You know, one of the weaker parts of the Patriots last year on both sides of the football was Red Zone efficiency, lack thereup. The Patriots Red Zone offense finished 20th in the league last year. their touchdown rate in the red zone was 55.7%.

Starting point is 00:22:15 Again, right down there in the bottom third, the red zone defense was slightly better, but still middle of the pack. 57.69% of the time opposing all offenses scored touchdowns on the Patriots defense when they hit the red zone. And if you remember correctly, for a significant chunk of the season last year, the Patriots defense, it was good between the 20s.

Starting point is 00:22:43 I don't know how many times I said this last year, but I said it many. The Patriots defense was good between the 20s and for a significant stretch, like really good between the 20s. But when teams got into the red zone, the Patriots were one of the worst red zone defenses in football for a pretty long period of time last year. Now, it got better, but they still finished middle of the. pack 16th. So you need to improve. You need to improve both your red zone offense and your red zone defense. How do you do that? Something that Mike Rable pointed out during minicamp, negative plays. He talked about how the offense in the red zone got bogged down by the negative plays. If you limit the negative offensive plays, your offense should be better in the red zone, right?

Starting point is 00:23:34 If you're inside the 20 and you give up a sack, it just kills. you. If you're inside the 20 and you run the football a couple of times for like a total of three yards and you're looking at like a third and seven, that just, it kills you. If you run the ball on first down, you lose two yards, even a second and 12 inside the red zone. It's a very difficult hole to crawl out of. And so that's why Mike Rable's pointing it out. Like you can't have negative plays in the red zone. And obviously you can't turn the football over at any point, but especially when you're in the red zone. Those things just, they will haunt you.

Starting point is 00:24:16 You have a great drive. You move down inside the 20 and then, whoop, fumble, whoop, interception. Can't have it. Can't have it. So the Patriots, the first step of having a better red zone offense is limiting those negative plays. And I expect significant improvement in that area because of Drake May's experience. He should not be putting the team in bad positions.

Starting point is 00:24:44 He should not be taking bad sacks. He shouldn't be taking a sack near the line of scrimmage, a one-yard sack, a two-yard sack. Throw the football away. It's fine. No fumbles inside the red zone. No ill-advised throws in the red zone. And I think the more experience that Drake Mae has,

Starting point is 00:25:05 the more comfortable he is, the better he will be taking care of, the football in the red zone and just taking care of the football in totality. The Patriots short yardage run game should also be much better, shouldn't it? I mean, you added Reggie Gilliam. You're going to have a fully healthy Ramandre Stevenson and Trevion and Henderson, fingers crossed. We just talked about Drake May's ability to run the football, designed runs.

Starting point is 00:25:33 He's actually pretty good at sneaking the football. I don't know if he's as good as Brady was, but he's good. Your offensive line is better should get more. push up front. You have AJ Brown and Romeo Dobbs who are both really good in the red zone, which should help you as well to go along with Hunter Henry, your running backs, et cetera, et cetera. So I expect significant improvement from the Patriots red zone offense this year. I also think they'll improve defensively. You know, some of the issues that we saw, especially early on in the season a year ago, miscommunication between the secondary.

Starting point is 00:26:12 not necessarily always knowing your assignments. And let's not forget, some of that can probably be chalked up to Zach Corp. He was a first-time defensive play caller. And I thought as the year went on, as we discussed, as that year went on in 2025, Zach Corr got better and better and better and better and was really good in the playoffs. The Super Bowl, obviously that had a tough time stopping Kenneth Walker. but Zach Corr, I don't think you can argue. It is inarguable to me that Zach Corr got better as the year went on.

Starting point is 00:26:50 Now, I think that showed in the red zone defense, and I think it will continue to pour into 2026. And some of it again, early season issues from the secondary communication. And everybody else, I mean, sometimes we overlook this stuff. But the other thing is, there was just a lot of new land. year, which we mentioned throughout some of the season. But when you're in the red zone, offensively, defensively, it's just easier when you know what you're supposed to do, when you fully comprehend the scheme and what the goals are

Starting point is 00:27:27 and what your responsibilities are. So the second year for the defensive system, the second year for the offensive system, some of this stuff that might have been uncomfortable last year for some of the players should be much more comfortable this season. Now, Red Zone defense, another reason why I think they should be better this year, because their run defense should be better, especially on the edge. With the additions of Draymont Jones, who is a better run defender than Caleb on Chase on, the at some point addition of Gabe Accus when he actually gets on the field,

Starting point is 00:28:05 his ability to play the run. We've heard about Elijah Ponder taking big steps. And I would imagine that also means his ability to defend the run. If he continues to get better, which according to the coaching staff, it's pretty much borderline of fate of compil at this point that Elijah Ponder is going to be better. But with the additions of Draymont Jones, the addition of Gabe Accus, you should be better on that defensive line. You can have four or five guys in that defensive line that are at least good, if not, very good against the run.

Starting point is 00:28:42 That should help your ability to slow offenses down when they get in the red zone. And just a healthy Milton Williams will help. I pray to the football gods that Milton Williams is able to play 15, 16, 17 regular season games this year. Craig Woodson in his second season, screaming downhill or playing more in the bull. Box should also help. Craig Woodson had three tackles for loss in the Super Bowl, which we just completely forget about because of how that game ended, how it went. But Craig Woodson was a demon.

Starting point is 00:29:17 Three tackles for loss in a Super Bowl by a rookie, a safety. So I do think the pieces are there. And I do think the Patriots knowing, again, Mike Vrable, his ability to coach, his coaching staff, they know the weaknesses from last year. They know they have to address. and tweak things, I would anticipate the Patriots being better in the red zone on both sides of the football in 2026. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your

Starting point is 00:29:47 first listen for being an everyday. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C Radio and don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button. Give us a thumbs up and subscribe. And if you never miss an episode, the Everydayer Club is built for you. Get Lockdown Patriots ad-free plus members-only Discord access, and I plop in there from time to time. And even more than that, head to Lockdown Patriots. Dot supercast.com or check the link in the show notes to learn even more. Have a great weekend, and we will see you next time.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Bounce Back: New England Patriots’ A.J. Brown Set to Dominate in 2026

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