Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Challenge: Can Drake Maye and the Patriots Conquer Tampa’s Elite Defense?

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Pats head down to Tampa to play one of the best teams they'll face in 2025. It's time for our deep dive preview of Bucks Pats. This is Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcasts Network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattles, born and raised in New England, been covering. The Pats for the past 16 years. Also, co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattels and a sports radio veteran.

Starting point is 00:00:37 On today's preview, we'll tell you why the Bucks offense is not as scary as you might think. Also, we'll break down the challenges Drake May will face on Sunday and tell you why wide receiver success might not be the path to victory. But first, it's another week and another test. We appreciate you joining the show, making us your first listen, and for being an everydayer the Lockdown Patriots podcast is a proud partner of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. And don't forget to like, hit that like button if you're watching us on YouTube.

Starting point is 00:01:10 Don't forget to throw a comment in as well. How do you feel about this game coming up on Sunday? And don't forget to subscribe as we slowly climb towards 7,500 subs. And remember this. We go live on Sunday following the game, live post game on Sunday, right here on YouTube following Pat's Buccaneers. Today's episode is brought to you by GameTime. Download the GameTime app, create an account.

Starting point is 00:01:35 Use code lockdown NFL for $20 off your first purchase. The Buccaneers, to me, are the second toughest test of the season so far behind the Buffalo Bills, week five in Buffalo, Sunday night football. Tampa is the second best team the Patriots have played this year. And here's another note. They're not only the second best team that the Patriots have faced this season, but they're also playing Tampa off Tampa's by week. Tampa did not play last week. They have had all sorts of extra time to prepare for Mike Vrable, Drake May, and company.

Starting point is 00:02:13 Now, the Patriots, they're 4 and 0 on the road this year. Can they possibly make it 5'0? That's a tall task, man. If you told me the Patriots would start this season 4 and 0 on the road, I would have thought you were crazy, but here we are. So the Buccaneers, let's look at them first. We're going to break it down, of course, Patriots' offense against the Buccaneers' defense, Patriots defense against the Buccaneers' offense.

Starting point is 00:02:36 But the Buccaneers, their best wins, were at Atlanta, who you just saw last weekend, at Seattle in an absolute shootout against Sam Darnold in the Seahawks offense. And then they also beat San Francisco. That game was in Tampa. They lost to Philadelphia defending champions, really good football team. They lost against Philadelphia 31 to 25. Now when you play in Tampa, you also have to think about the weather. It's going to be above 80 degrees.

Starting point is 00:03:04 Last time I checked, the humidity is going to be at about 75%. So it's going to be a warm day down in Tampa compared to what you're used to now playing football in New England. Even though New England has had some really nice weather this year, above 80 degrees and 76 percent humidity in November is warm. So the Buccaneers have beat some good football teams. They've beat some good football teams on the road. And this is going to be a challenge. The Patriots offense also, when you think about this,

Starting point is 00:03:35 you're heading down to Tampa. Tampa just had their week off, thanks to the bye. And you're also going down there if you're the Patriots, likely without two key guys on your offense. I would not anticipate Ramandre Stevenson playing this weekend. he did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. The same could be said for Kashan Bouty. He did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday.

Starting point is 00:03:58 Christian Ellis also did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. And no matter how you or I feel about Christian Ellis, and I don't think he's been great this year. He's been better than he was the first couple of weeks. Don't get me wrong on that. But Christian Ellis, even though he's not a great linebacker, he's still a very pivotal part of this defense on the second level. And without Christian Ellis, if he doesn't play on Sunday,

Starting point is 00:04:26 which again, I would expect him not to play on Sunday, you're looking at Jack Gibbons, you're looking at Marte Mapu, you're looking at maybe Jolani Tavai. So not ideal to have those guys out. You're thin at running back. You're not necessarily deep at wide receiver, and I would say you're pretty thin at linebacker.

Starting point is 00:04:43 And all three of those positions are likely going to be impacted by injury on Sunday. But here's the thing. If the Patriots fly down to Tampa and they find a way to beat the Buccaneers, you start to look forward. Buy week is week 14. So after this weekend, you've got three more games that you've got to get through until you get to your by week, which is going to be much needed.

Starting point is 00:05:12 Patriots have a number of older players that they're depending a lot on to have a by week, week 14 is very, very tough on every player, but especially guys like Morgan Moses, who's in his mid-30s and has played with a bunch of injuries throughout his career. But if you can get through this game, if you can find a way to win this game, then you host the Jets on Thursday night. Obviously a winnable game, especially after what happened at the trade deadline. Then you go to Cincinnati. Winnable game.

Starting point is 00:05:44 Cincinnati's defense has been wretched. And then the last game before your by week, you host the New York Giants on Monday night football. And we know, Cam Scadaboo, not going to be there. Malik neighbors, not going to be there against a rookie quarterback. So I don't think it's nuts. You're absolutely going to be favorites in two of those three games. And you might be the favorite at Cincinnati as well. So if you can gut your way through this game, you've got three games left that I think you will be favored in.

Starting point is 00:06:17 before you get to your buy, and then you can take a deep breath and get ready for Buffalo and Baltimore and some of the challenges you face post-by week. But this is going to be a tremendous challenge for the Patriots on Sunday. And Sunday is the type of game that made you go out and hire Josh McDaniels.

Starting point is 00:06:37 We'll explain that and more next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. If you're still overpaying for wireless, it's time to say yes to saying no. At Mitt Mobile, their favorite word is no. No contracts, no monthly bills, no overages, no hidden fees, no BS. You can say yes to making the switch and get premium wireless for just $15 a month.

Starting point is 00:07:02 Mint makes it simple. All plans come with high speed data and unlimited talk and text delivered on the nation's largest 5G network. You can even bring your own phone and keep your same number in contacts. Here's what's great about Mint Mobile. You're getting the same quality service you had before, but for a fraction of the price. And the setup is super easy. You keep your number and then you're running in minutes. Ready to say yes to saying no?

Starting point is 00:07:26 Make the switch at mintmobile.com slash locked on NFL. That's mintmobile.com slash locked on NFL. Up front payment of $45 required equivalent to $15 a month. Limited time, new customer offer for first three months only. Speeds may slow above 35GB on unlimited plan. taxes and fees are extra. See Mitt Mobile for details. The NFL season is back, and honestly, there's nothing better than being in the stadium surrounded by fans cheering on your team.

Starting point is 00:07:55 But let's be honest, getting tickets could be a hassle between queues and login screens and prices jumping at checkout. It's frustrating. That's why you should use game time. The app that gives the advantage back to fans. Game time is fast, easy, and backed by the game time guarantee. You'll always get 100% authentic tickets delivered on time and at the best price. plus all fees are included, so the price you see is the price that you pay. It's easy.

Starting point is 00:08:18 You can pull up game time, just a couple of taps. You see amazing deals. I'm talking about your favorite NFL games as low as $100. And also you want to love zone deals. Pick the section. Game Time picks the seats and you save big. Download the GameTime app, create an account, use code lockdown NFL for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply again.

Starting point is 00:08:38 That's promo code L-O-C-E-D-O-N-FL for $20 off. Swipe. Tap, ticket, go. Download game time today. Don't forget, live post game coming up on Sunday, YouTube. You want to check it out following Buccaneers, Patriots, and don't forget to give us that thumbs up if you're watching on YouTube right now. Like this podcast, like this episode, throw a comment in, who do you think wins on Sunday and why, and don't forget to subscribe.

Starting point is 00:09:10 And if you want to be notified, click that notification and that little bell right there. that will help you know when we go live like we're going to do on Sunday. All right, let's jump into this matchup here. Locked on Patriots, we do this every single week. We break it down. We have a deep dive preview. And we start this preview with the Patriots offense versus the Buccaneers defense. Now, the Bucs defense, we're talking about talent on all three levels.

Starting point is 00:09:35 Interior defensive line, Vita Vaya is a disruptor against the run. He's a disruptor in the passing game. he can be a big time problem. Right defensive end, Yaya Diabi is no joke. And, you know, if you look at some of his analytics, Yaya Diabi is 11th and past rush win rate, but he's also third in run stop win rate.

Starting point is 00:09:58 So he not only is really good at getting at the quarterback and beating, you know, your left tackle, but you're also looking at the idea of him being able to contain the edge and being good against the run. and I watched the Buccaneers Saints film earlier this week, the last game the Bucks played before they're by, and I had Yaya Diabi rated as a plus seven grade, which means he made at least seven plus plays in that game. I did not have him down for a single negative play.

Starting point is 00:10:30 So he is going to be a headache for the Patriots. They've got to take care of him. Anthony Nelson, opposite of Yaya Diabi. Now, he has replaced the injured Hassan Reddick. Hassan Reddick is not practicing. Doesn't look like he's going to play. But against the Saints, Anthony Nelson was terrific. Yaya Diabi was a plus seven.

Starting point is 00:10:49 Anthony Nelson, to me, was a plus six. He had a pick six in this game, and he was actually named the NFC defensive player of the week. Tampa loves Todd Bowles, head coach, defensive play caller. He loves dropping Anthony Nelson in coverage and blitzing from the second and third level to try to fool the quarterback. Now, let's talk about Todd Bowles. A potpourri of looks, my friends.

Starting point is 00:11:13 This guy is going to give you everything. We talk about the kitchen sink. We talk about spinning the dial. That's what Todd Bowles is going to do against Drake May. He absolutely adores pressure on the quarterback. He loves blitzing the quarterback. He loves giving all sorts of exotic looks. It's somewhat similar to what we said before the Atlanta game last weekend.

Starting point is 00:11:34 The blitzing, the exotic looks, wanting to get pressure. when Todd Bowles is literally one of the best in the business when it comes to being a defensive play caller. And he sent nonstop pressure against the Saints, especially in the first half against Spencer Rattler. And if you look at the statistics and analytics, the Buccaneers pass rush is one of the best in the NFL. Their fourth in pressure rate, they are fourth in pass rush win rate. Interior defensive lineman Elijah Roberts is 13th. by the way, in that statistic in pass rush win rate for Interior defensive line. Remember, you know, Yaya Diabi is 11th in pass rush win rate.

Starting point is 00:12:15 You've got Vita Vaya who can bother you. Anthony Nelson can bother you. And here's a number that we need to keep in mind. The Buccaneers not only get a lot of pressure, they get a lot of pressure quickly. They have the fourth best time and time to pressure in the NFL. And they do this. Again, a lot of this is similar to Atlanta. they do this by blitzing a ton.

Starting point is 00:12:36 Tampa Bay is seventh in the NFL in blitz rate, and they'll play all sorts of games. Simulated pressures, creeper pressures, they will blitz everybody. I mean, they will blitz their outside corners. They will blitz their nickel corner. They will blitz their safeties. They will blitz their linebackers.

Starting point is 00:12:53 They will run lots of stunts on the offensive line. It is going to be a headache for Drake May in the O line and the running backs on Sunday. They're going to have to deal with it. Tampa's defense is a handful. They throw a ton at you. I mean, even the backups against New Orleans gave the Saints' offensive line fits. Outside linebacker Chris Braswell was a plus four by migrating.

Starting point is 00:13:15 Marquise Watts was a plus two. So they have a bunch of cats who can get after it. But that's not the only thing about this Tampa defense. They've got some good defensive backs. Jacob Parrish, who is a rookie. He's their nickel. He's good. Jamel Dean is an outside corner who happens to be the number one ranked corner this season

Starting point is 00:13:39 according to pro football focus. He's been the best corner in football. Zion McCollum is another good corner that can play outside and also mixes it up a little bit. Now, they're linebackers. I do think, I do think the Buccaneers are a little thin at linebacker. Levanté David, we all know Levanti David. He's been in the league forever, but that also also means he's on the older side, and I don't think he's necessarily great in coverage. Servassier Dennis is their other linebacker, and he might be, you know, one of the weaker parts of their defense as well. And he has some weaknesses in coverage. So keep that in mind, stick a pin in it.

Starting point is 00:14:20 Free safety, Antoine Winfield, playmaker, ball hawk, good football player, strong safety. Tykey Smith, he's good against the run, and Todd Bowles will deploy him as a blitzer. And when you watch, when you watch this Tampa defense, they have good communication between the front seven and the secondary. They're on a string, which is what you want. And Josh McDaniels actually brought that up to the media on Thursday saying it is a Todd Bowles defense. Good communication, lots of different exotic pressure packages, difficult defense to deal with. And they also like to disguise their coverages in the secondary. Evan Lazar wrote this at Patriots.com.

Starting point is 00:15:03 Unlike other defensive schemes with one or two base coverages, the Bucks don't have many coverage tendencies. They have the sixth highest disguised coverage rate in the NFL at 25.5%. So we have covered the Buccaneers defense and told you how difficult it is to deal with. So the million dollar question is, how do the Patriots attack this defense? Let's start with Drake May. Drake May needs to diagnose things. He needs to diagnose the looks, pre-snap, post-snap, where are the blitz is coming from?

Starting point is 00:15:36 He needs to make sure that he's diagnosing these things correctly, because if he doesn't, it's going to be a really tough day at the office. So diagnose first and foremost. Secondly, be decisive. Now, here's the good thing. Similar to what I said, last week when we previewed the Falcons game, Drake May has been good against the Blitz. He has been good against disguised coverages. And so Tampa, I think, is at a different level than what he's had to face.

Starting point is 00:16:06 You know, you look at Cleveland's defense, one of the better defenses in football. Atlanta's defense. What are the better defenses in football? Tampa's defense, one of the better defenses in football. And I think Tampa's defense is better than Cleveland's and Atlantis. So every week, it's like a new test. And it's been getting tougher throughout the last three weeks for Drake and company. So when you look at what he does, got to be good against the blitz and good against

Starting point is 00:16:30 disguised coverages. You don't want to be fooled consistently against Todd Bowles because it's going to be tough. So diagnose the looks, be decisive. I, you know, I'm a little surprised that the Patriots have not worked a quick game as much over the past couple of weeks as I thought they would. I thought Josh McDaniels would sit down Drake May during the week and say, look, you know, the Cleveland pass rush with Miles Garrett's tough. Atlanta sends a lot of pressure. They're tough to deal with. We're going to get the quick passing game going.

Starting point is 00:16:58 get it out of your hands quickly, two to two and a half seconds. Maybe they do that this week. I hope they do because I do think that'll be a part of how you can take it to this Tampa defense. Diagnose, be decisive, take the profits. Watching that Saints game, there were a number of opportunities for Spencer, Rattler, and Tyler Shuck, to take the profit. Take the underneath. And they decided not to. And they paid for it.

Starting point is 00:17:26 They paid for it dearly. And we know that Drake has been taking some chances downfield. He's been very good as a deep ball passer this season. We all know that. But in this particular game, it would be a very good thing if Drake May took the profits in front of him. Check down to a running back. Check down to a tight end. Little short option routes to Stefan Diggs.

Starting point is 00:17:49 Pop Douglas. Get him going in the short to intermediate area. Get rid of it. So diagnose, be decisive. Take your profits. take a couple shots downfield. Don't get me wrong because you're so strong doing that, but be selective with the shots you take.

Starting point is 00:18:05 And maybe more importantly than anything else I've talked about is the pocket presence for Drake May. I believe we talked about it before Atlanta. We saw more of it against Atlanta, right? Six sacks. At least two of those were on Drake May. We talked about it earlier this week. He has mentioned it with the media this week saying that

Starting point is 00:18:23 he has taken way too many sacks and a lot of the sacks are on him. he has taken accountability, which he should because a lot of the sacks have been on him. It's one of his things he's got to work on. He's been terrific this year, but it is one of those weaknesses that he has to improve upon. So his pocket presence, when this pressure is coming at him, how's he dealing with it? Is he cool, calm, collected? Is he tucking his head and becoming a runner way too quickly? That's going to be huge.

Starting point is 00:18:52 He has to have pocket awareness, just like against the Browns and the Falcons. you need to see a decent amount of that on Sunday. Now, I talked about Yaya Diabi, Will Campbell, big challenge. And Will Campbell has been above average this year. I think he's been pretty darn good. Dane Bruegler of the Athletic just named him on his all-rooky team halfway through the season. And if you look at it, he has been graded, according to pro football focus, as the best offensive lineman, best tackle out of the rookie class through halfway through this season.

Starting point is 00:19:24 Will Campbell's been good, and this is another challenge for him. Yaya Diabi gets after it. Also challenging for the interior offensive line. Garrett Bradbury, Jared Wilson against Vita Vea and Elijah Roberts. You've got to anchor. You've got to hold your water. And if we talk about blitz packages and exotic looks, how about the running backs? Terrell Jennings, Travion Henderson, two young, inexperienced running backs.

Starting point is 00:19:52 they're going to have a lot on the plate on Sunday. They've got to be prepared for the blitz looks and they've got to do a good job in past protection. This is a Josh McDaniels game. This is why you hired Josh McDaniels. And I think Josh McDaniels will run the football with some bigger personnel. New Orleans only ran the ball three times in the first half.

Starting point is 00:20:15 And I know some stats will tell you Tampa's been great against the run, but you've got to run the football more than three times and a half. And I do think Josh McDaniels will do that with some bigger packages. Maybe a sixth offensive lineman, two tight end personnel. Tampa is 19th in run-stop win rate. They're 28th in yards before contact per attempt. They have the sixth highest stacked box rate. So they usually have a lot of guys in the box, roll with one high safety,

Starting point is 00:20:44 which could give Drake May some opportunities. And I think Josh McDaniels, his game plan, to go against Todd Bowles on Sunday in this defense, tight ends, tight ends, tight ends. I think you're going to see a decent amount of 12 personnel, two tight end packages. I think you try to attack their linebackers in coverage. I saw a number of openings and opportunities for New Orleans

Starting point is 00:21:07 to get the football down the seams. So attack the seams, attack the flats, attack the middle of the football field. I think that's what Josh McDaniels is going to do. Also, because this defense is so aggressive in Tampa, I would attack with the occasional screen. Misdirection plays, especially the linebackers. They tend to overreact.

Starting point is 00:21:30 Misdirection plays. Get them shifted to the wrong direction. Get a big play out of it with one of your tight ends. In play action. So against super aggressive defenses, screens, misdirection plays, and play action. One more thing. Speed out of the slot, whether it's Trayvion and.

Starting point is 00:21:50 Henderson lined up as a slot receiver, whether it's Pop Douglas, maybe even Kyle Williams. Again, I saw it against the Saints. There could be some opportunities. If you take care of the blitz packages, there could be some opportunities getting it down the seam out of the slot with that speed. This is the type of game. This is why you hire Josh McDaniels to go mono-a-mono against defensive minds like Todd Bowles. All right, the Pat's defensive strength just so has. happens to align well with a weakness of this buck's offense that's coming up next this is locked on

Starting point is 00:22:24 patriots part of the lockdown podcast network your team every day this episode is brought to you by prize picks you and i make decisions every day but on prize picks being right can get you paid don't miss any of the excitement of this sports season whether you're following the NFL NBA or both there's no better time to jump in on the action if you haven't tried it yet prize picks is the simplest way to play. Just pick more or less on at least two player stats. And if you get them right, you win. It takes less than 60 seconds to make your lineup. And you can play anywhere. Prize Picks operates, including California, Texas, and Georgia. You can use prize picks during both football Sundays and NBA tip-offs. It keeps every game exciting. And the new Stacks

Starting point is 00:23:08 feature is a game changer. You can now pick more on Jalen's points, threes, and assists in the same lineup. Download the prize picks at today. Use code lockdown NFL to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup. That's code lockdown NFL for $50 in lineups after your first $5 lineup. Prize picks. It's good to be right. You know the deal. Like, comment, subscribe, live post game coming up on Sunday. Tampa, here's the good news. The Tampa offense is not the same offense that they were three to four weeks ago. Mike Evans. is out. It looks like Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving will both be out. They haven't practiced this week. So what do you look for against Tampa's offense? You will see a good mix of under

Starting point is 00:23:57 center and shotgun from Baker Mayfield. They will sprinkle in some pistol formation, not a ton about a handful of times I think against New Orleans. They do like to motion and shift. So you've got to be disciplined against that. They like to run some play action. Baker Mayfield, his ability with his legs and he's got a pretty good arm. They will run bootleg action against you. Trips and bunch sets, they do that. They will run a good amount of 12 personnel and the Patriots have not done a great job against 12 personnel offenses this year.

Starting point is 00:24:31 They will run some empty. So they give you an assortment of things to deal with offensively. But the big problem for Tampa right now is their offensive line. Pass protection is a huge issue. They're 21st in pressure rate giving up. They're 16th in pass block win rate. Now Tristan Worf's, their left tackle, all-world player is sixth in that category. Left guard, Ben Bredesen, is 11th in that category.

Starting point is 00:24:59 But they are 26th in time to pressure. So they're not only giving up some pressure, but they give up the pressure quickly. And Tampa loves trying to get the football downfield. They love trying to go vertical, which is tough when you're 26th in the NFL in time to pressure. Now, from the Saints game, I will tell you, Sensor Graham Barton was atrocious in that game. He was on his tookus at least three or four times in that. It was absolutely brutal. He was miserable. I would think he'd be better this weekend, but if he plays like that against Milton Williams and Christian Barmore, whoof, that's going to be a tough day. Tristan

Starting point is 00:25:36 Worf's, he was uncharacteristically bad against Chase Young the last time he played. I would not expect him to be that bad this Sunday, but it is an interesting matchup between Tristan Worf's and K. Levan Chase-on. As we know, Kalevon-Chayson has been really, really good over the past month and a half or so. Right tackle's interesting. Luke Gedicki looks like he could play, and he is a good tackle. He is much better than their back-up right tackle, Charlie Heck, who has been really inconsistent. So that could change the game for Harold Land, If he's lining up against Luke Gettoke, that is a much, much tougher matchup than Charlie Heck. But the pass protection for Tampa has been a problem.

Starting point is 00:26:22 It's been a problem. If you're the Patriots, a couple things you're going to watch out for. Here are the danger zones. Mayfield Magic. Baker Mayfield is Uber competitive. He will extend plays. He never gives up on a play, which means he takes risks, which could help you in the long run on Sunday. But he will extend plays. He will scramble and make life miserable for you.

Starting point is 00:26:49 It'll be a third and eight. And all of a sudden they'll come up with an eight and a half, nine yards scramble as he dies for a first down. So you've got to try to stay away from the Mayfield magic. Another thing I would say is we know the Patriots have had issues against tight ends. And that could continue on Sunday. K. Dotten is a good past catching tight end, he could give you some headaches against your linebackers and your safeties. And I would think Craig Woodson will probably draw that assignment a decent amount because he drew the assignment against Atlanta and going against Kyle Pitts. But Kate Otten could be a troublemaker, especially on third down. And I mentioned the trips

Starting point is 00:27:31 and the bunch formations. We know what happened last week against Atlanta. When you had those bunch formations, when you had trips, it caused issues with the Patriot its coverage plan. That could be a problem. I am not afraid of Tampa Bay running the football. Number one, New England's been dominant. Number two, Tampa's just not good running the football, especially without Bucky Irving. Tampa is 28th in run block win rate.

Starting point is 00:27:59 They don't have a single offensive lineman in the top 10. They are 23rd in success rate. There are 27th in rushing yards over expected. They're 20th and yards before contact per attempt. And with all of those bad numbers, I would also like to add 22nd in opposing stacked box rate. So defenses are not stacking the box and they're still stopping the run. And I'm telling you right now, one of the worst goal line possessions I've seen in my life happened in the New Orleans game in the first half.

Starting point is 00:28:33 The Buccaneers had the football on like the one yard line and they couldn't get it into the end zone. They ran the ball four straight times. First run was up the middle. Then they ran three straight times towards the left. And the offensive line got absolutely bullied, pushed around, and embarrassed. So this team has not been able to run the football. They will use 12 personnel a decent amount, which means they ask their tight ends to block in the run game.

Starting point is 00:29:03 And I'm telling you, you know, their tight ends, not great at blocking for the run. KDontin's okay from time to time. but they are just not good enough. And on top of that, the running backs haven't been great. Rashad White is 38th and yards per carry. Bucky Irving, 46th, and that's out of 47 qualified running backs. Yards after contact, that was a big issue when we were getting ready for the Atlanta Falcons in our preview last week, with Bejohn Robinson being one of the best running backs

Starting point is 00:29:33 and yards after contact in football, not Tampa. Rashad White is 36th. out of 47 qualified running backs. And if Bucky Irving plays, he's 40th yards after contact. And because you can't run the football, Tampa's 25th on third down and 26th in the red zone. All right, time to get to the prediction.

Starting point is 00:29:55 I just gave you all the information I laid it all out. You got to limit your turnovers. Tampa is fourth best and turnover differential with a plus seven. they turn the Saints over four times, including a defensive score. You have to take care of the football. Now, as I mentioned, Baker Mayfield, he also loves to play a little bit of Sandlot, and that can get him into trouble.

Starting point is 00:30:21 This year he's had 13 turnover worthy plays, which is tied for the third most with Patrick Mahomes. And we think about Patrick Mahomes, who is also in love with kind of the Sandlot plays. So whoever turns the football over, I think is going to be in trouble. I think this is going to be a close game. Now, because it's in Tampa, I'm going to go with the Bucks 23 to 20. Would I be surprised at the Patriots won by a field goal?

Starting point is 00:30:48 I would not be surprised. Whoever takes care of the football has the best chance to win this game. I'm not sure either offense is going to show super duper Uber fireworks through four quarters. So extra possessions are going to mean something. The team that takes care of the football is the one that's, you know, it might sound obvious, but the Patriots were minus two last weekend, they still won. If they're minus and turnover differential on Sunday, they're losing this football game, and they could lose by seven to ten points.

Starting point is 00:31:20 So take care of the football, and this could be a field goal game. I think it's going to be a good game. But I do have the bucket ears. If this game was in New England, I would probably lean towards New England. But it's in Tampa. I'm going with Tampa 23 to 20. That wraps up this edition of Logging. Lockdown Patriots, thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer.

Starting point is 00:31:39 Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. And don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button and subscribe. And again, we get the Sunday live post game for your second listen, by the way. You can get a double dose of the lockdown NFL podcast with Tyler the Madman Roland, Tony Wiggins. Find Lockdown NFL on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. Have a great weekend. And we will see you Sunday live for the post game.

Starting point is 00:32:04 hopefully talking about a seventh straight win, which would be absolutely amazing. Talk to you then.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Challenge: Can Drake Maye and the Patriots Conquer Tampa’s Elite Defense?

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.