Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Challenge: Patriots Face Unique Tests In New Orleans | Trench Warfare

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Pats have an opportunity for their third straight win, but the Saints, they will present some challenges. It's time for a deep dive preview of Sunday. This is Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattles, born and raised.

Starting point is 00:00:30 in New England, been covering the past for the past 16 years, also co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattels and a sports talk show host veteran. A reminder that we do live post game shows on Sunday, Saints, Patriots, we will do it again this Sunday. Don't forget. But on today's episode, we'll tell you why the biggest aspect of this game might not involve X's and O's at all. Also, we'll look at a Saints defense that won't be easy for Drake May to conquer, like you might think. But first, we break down how the Pat's defense matches up versus New Orleans. We appreciate you joining the show, making us your first listen, and for being an

Starting point is 00:01:08 every day. Don't forget, you can follow our show and hear new episodes, add free daily on Amazon music, the Lockdown Patriots podcast, a proud part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. And today's episode is brought to by Fandle. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you'll get $300. and bonus bets to use across the app.

Starting point is 00:01:31 Patriots defense, Saints offense. Let's break down this matchup. The first thing I've got to tell you is that on Thursday, pretty interesting. Christian Gonzalez was out there for the stretching period of practice, but then he vanished. And this became a pretty big deal on Twitter from some of the beat writers trying to figure out why was Christian Gonzalez limited during Thursday's practice. Well, according to cornerbacks coach Justin Hamillard. Hamilton. This was planned. So as of right now, no need to freak out. Jalen Hawkins did not practice

Starting point is 00:02:05 on Thursday. Anthony Jennings did not practice on Thursday. Keon White did not practice on Thursday. The biggest question is Jalen Hawkins. If he doesn't play on Sunday, what happens? You would think Kyle Dugger would replace him, but against Buffalo, Kyle Dugger played all of one snap. Brennan Schooler had more snaps than Kyle Dugger against the bills. So I don't know what the Patriots plan will be if Jalen Hawkins can't go on Sunday against the Saints. The Saints, they're not a very good offense. They're not spectacular. They're not hanging up 35 points a week.

Starting point is 00:02:41 But I will tell you, they will challenge the Pat's defense in certain ways. Kellen Moore is the new head coach. He is the offensive play caller, and he has a lot going on. For the majority of the snaps, they will be in shotgun with Spencer Rattler, their quarterback. But you will see heavy motion. Kellen Moore loves motion. You'll see a ton of it on Sunday. You'll see some pistol formation.

Starting point is 00:03:04 Shotgun from the quarterback running back directly behind him. You'll see some wildcat with Alvin Kamara. You'll see some wildcat with Taysam Hill. You will see quarterback keepers and quarterback read options for Spencer Rattler to use his athleticism. Kellyn Moore will call play action. He'll run some bootleg off the play action. And the Saints have hit some explosive plays off that play action. Very multiple, very, very multiple from Kellynne Moore.

Starting point is 00:03:33 And get ready for eye candy. And we have to remember against the bills, the Patriots, the two touchdowns that defense gave up against Buffalo, it was eye candy. Both of those Buffalo touchdowns involved motion. Now, New Orleans does have some offensive pieces. It's not as if the cupboard is bare. They're not super explosive.

Starting point is 00:03:54 They're not a great offense, but they do have some talent on that side of the ball. Chris Alave is a possession receiver. You know, he'll move the chains, 33 catches on the season, 244 yards. What's surprising is he's actually averaging less than eight yards a catch. So it's not a lot downfield with Chris Alave. If Chris Gonzalez is playing on Sunday, you wonder, will the Patriots go with man coverage and have Gonzalez cover Alave as much as they can. Will they go with Davis, Carlton Davis against Chris Alave?

Starting point is 00:04:26 Of course, Carlton Davis in the same division for a few years as Chris Alave. So he has experience in defending him. But I do think the Patriots have the cornerbacks to limit Chris Alave. The other guy you've got to watch out for at wide receiver is Rashid Shaheed. Super fast. Had an 87-yard touchdown from the slot last week. And you got to make sure that your GTFB against Rashid Shaheed. don't get burnt over the top.

Starting point is 00:04:51 And Brandon Cook's old friend, he is also in New Orleans, doesn't play a ton. But we know that he also brings a speed element. Then you look at the backfield. Alvin Kamara, still some juice left in the legs. He's not the same guy he was a couple of years ago, but he still has some juice. He's 14th in the NFL in yards after contact. He has the 12th most 10 plus yard runs in football this year. So keep an eye on that.

Starting point is 00:05:17 And yes, he also. also is still pretty dangerous as a receiver. So the Patriots, they can't lose Alvin Kamara on Sunday. The other running back for the Saints is Ken Drey Miller. He's a powerful running back in between the tackles type guy and he runs with some strong finish. So again, they do have, they do have some weapons on that offense. And Kellyn Moore is a good play caller. Let's look at the quarterback, Spencer Rattler.

Starting point is 00:05:44 I mentioned his athleticism a few minutes ago. And he can hurt you, whether it's. breaking away via the scramble, whether it's those read option plays, he is athletic and he can run on you. And he made life miserable for the Buffalo Bill's defense a couple of weeks ago. And he was added again, you know, against the Giants last week. So you've got to keep an eye on Rattler. You've got to keep Spencer Rattler in the pocket. He is competitive. He's got a good arm. And he's decisive. This state's offense, they get rid of the football quickly. And when you look at, you know, what you need to do, Spencer Rattler is fourth in time to throw.

Starting point is 00:06:27 2.63 seconds is what Spencer Rattler averages getting rid of the football. And you want to put this game on Spencer Rattler. The Patriots should be able to limit the run. This New Orleans Saints run game is nothing compared to the Buffalo Bills run game that you faced last week. They're 17th and 8 EPA per rush. The Patriots defense is third. third in EPA per rush. The Saints 29th in rushing yards over-expected. The Patriots third-best, third-best rushing yards over-expected defensively. When you look at this offensive line,

Starting point is 00:07:02 the New Orleans Saints, 32nd, according to ESPN, in run-block win rate, the Patriots defensive line is third in the NFL in run-stop win rate. Christian Barmore is the 10th best interior defensive lineman when it comes to stopping the run per ESPN. And here's the thing. The Saints have actually faced the second lowest amount of stacked boxes in the league. So teams are not stacking the box to stop this run game. And the Patriots, they don't stack the box a lot either. They have a lot of confidence in their defensive line and then linebackers coming up after

Starting point is 00:07:40 that. The Patriots are 24th in stack boxed rate defense. So they don't stack the. the box. Defenses have not stacked the box against the Saints this year, and the Saints have not been a very good running football team. So put this in the hands of Spencer Rattler. Patriots defense, by the way, according to the communications department of the franchise, the Patriots are the only team in the NFL this season to not have allowed a 50-yard rushing game from a running back to the first five games. It's the first time that New England has done that in its history.

Starting point is 00:08:13 Put this on Rattler. Nothing jumps out statistically or analytically about Spencer Rattler. 22nd and passer rating, 15th and completion percentage over expected, 18th in QBR, 27th, and EPA. And you'll see a lot of underneath quick passing game from this Saints offense. They are 30th in yards per attempt at 5.6 yards per attempt. And you have to make sure, you have to make sure that you can come up, rally, swarm, and tackle. Evan Lazzar noted that the Saints ranked last in the NFL an explosive pass rate at 2.8%. And one of the guys that you'd have to look out for is Joanne Johnson, who is their tight end.

Starting point is 00:08:53 He was actually limited at Thursday's practice. We know the Patriots have struggled with tight ends. So that's important. But maybe the biggest edge for the Patriots on Sunday against this Saints offense is the Patriots defensive line against the Saints offensive line. The blocking metrics for New Orleans are terrible. Let's start with the pass protection. I do want to know that Cesar Ruiz was a full participant at Thursday's practice.

Starting point is 00:09:18 That's huge news for the Saints. They need him at right guard. Torricelli Simpkins, who was the backup right guard, he was plugged in last week against the Giants. He was absolutely brutal. He got steamrolled three or four times. He got called for a hold. So Cesar Ruiz coming back this week would be huge news for the Saints. But the Saints' offensive line has struggled, 20 second in pressure rate.

Starting point is 00:09:42 30th in past block win rate. They had some trouble against Buffalo a couple of weeks ago with simulated pressure. And the Patriots, when you look at pass rush win rate, according to ESPN, Harold Landry, 16th in the league at edge. And then you got Christian Barmore and Milton Williams. Christian Barmore, 15th, Milton Williams, third. The Patriots should be able to do a good job against this Saints offensive line. Now, aside from Ruiz, the other guy you got to look at, is their center Eric McCoy. According to Pro Football Focus, he's allowed two pressures, two pressures

Starting point is 00:10:19 the entire year. And he is the holder of the highest graded center and pass protection through five weeks in the NFL. That's according to Luke Johnson of the New Orleans Times pickyune. So Eric McCoy, center, he's good. But you should be able to get after Spencer Rattler a little bit and you should be able to bottle up this run game if your defensive line. pay it plays up to its standards i think the patriots have the edge there all right drake may has played like a top 10 quarterback through five weeks but we'll tell you how new orleans offers a unique test on sunday that's next this is locked on patriots part of the locked on podcast network your team every day when the opening whistle blows on a new repair get your crew

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Starting point is 00:11:54 lower prices, and a dedicated support line. Visit supplyhouse.com to sign up for free and use promo code S HNFL5 for 5% off your first order. That's supplyhouse.com, real people, real service. don't forget to help a brother out like comment and subscribe if you're watching on youtube i appreciate every single one of you click that notify bell as well so you know when a new podcast comes out for you also another reminder live post game show on sunday following the saints and the patriots don't want to miss it we'll go live on youtube after the game on sunday all right let's talk about the patriots offense drake may against this saints defense the saints defense you know, they're not full of elite

Starting point is 00:12:40 defenders, but they do have a number of guys that you want to know. And they do have some talent very similar to what I said offensively. The defensive line is really a who's who. I mean, Cam Jordan, Devon Gotcha, Brian Buries, you've got Carl Granderson, you've got Chase Young, who might be back on Sunday. That would lift this defense.

Starting point is 00:13:02 He was limited on Thursday. So Chase Young might be back, as Ross Jackson told us during the crossover episode yesterday, Chase Young had upwards of like 70 pressures last year. So Brazzi and Granderson and Young and Godshaw and Jordan, they've got talent. And then at the second level, DeMario Davis, he is the 13th overall pro football focus linebacker grade through five weeks.

Starting point is 00:13:29 He's the 13th best linebacker in football, according to PFF. He has the fifth best run defense. grade at linebacker in the NFL. So DeMario Davis, who's 36 years old, still doing it at a high level. And in the secondary, they've got two intriguing rookies, Jonas Sanker and Koolaid McKinstree. Now Sanker, he's a safety. Pro Football Focus wrote about the top 15 rookies so far this year, this week. And pro football focus had Jonas Sanker ranked as the seventh best rookie of this class through five weeks. His overall grade is a 70. 28.3 via PFF.

Starting point is 00:14:09 He is the fourth ranked safety in PFF overall grade over the past two weeks. Been playing great football. He also places fourth in PFF coverage grade in that span. So he makes plays on the football. He's a dangerous guy back there. You got to keep an eye on Jonas Sanker if you are Drake May. Kool-Aid McKinstree. He can make you pay if you make a mistake.

Starting point is 00:14:33 Now, pro football focus will tell you he's not very. good in coverage. He's 76th in PFF's coverage grade. But I know people including Greg Bedard who liked his film. And again, he's somebody that will make you pay at a couple picks last weekend against the Giants. You can't get careless around Kool-Aid McKinstree. So Kool-Aid McKinstree, Jonas Sanker, you got to make sure you know exactly where they are every single drop back because they can hurt you. Now let me start with the Patriots side of this where I start pretty much every week, and I feel like I'm going to start every week with the run game

Starting point is 00:15:10 until the Patriots can run the freaking ball. Now, what will they do with Antonio Gibson out? I anticipate we will see somewhere of like a 50, you know, 40, 10 split between Ramandre Stevenson, Trevion, Henderson, and Terrell Jennings. I would expect Terrell Jennings to be elevated before this game and to be active on Sunday. But I still think you're going to see mostly a 50, 40 split

Starting point is 00:15:34 between Ramandre Stevenson and Trayvion Henderson. Now, the Giants, they had a lot of success against the Saints run defense with gun runs. And we know from Josh McDaniels' days in past years, he can call up some gun runs. So I would not be surprised if you see some running back draws against this Saints defense because the New York Giants, Cam Scataboo, he had a good amount of success with those play calls.

Starting point is 00:16:02 So we'll see if Josh McDaniels, tries to attack the Saints' defensive front with those gun runs. The Saints run defense. Look, I don't know if it matters how good the Saints are against the run because the Patriots are 25th in DVOA when it comes to running the football. They just haven't been able to do it. They've stunk and they have to be better. The Saints run defense, they have given up the 10th most 10 plus yard runs in the league

Starting point is 00:16:28 17. Their stuff rate is 22nd. So that means that their defensive line is not getting a great push at the line of scrimmage. You know, it's a very interesting situation because the Saints have a lot of talent, as I mentioned, on that defensive line. But the statistics, the analytics, the metrics, a lot of the stuff that you look at, they haven't been very productive. So they have the talent, but it's like they haven't fully put it together. For example, that defensive line with Cam Jordan and Devon Godshaw and others, they're 29th in run-stop win rate.

Starting point is 00:17:05 Now, interestingly, I've talked about this before. The Patriots struggling with the run, I think, has mostly been about the running backs. I've mentioned that before. I will continue to say that because you look at this offensive line. The Patriots, according to ESPN, have the sixth best, the sixth best run-block win rate in the league. So the running backs have to be better. Morgan Moses has been the 10th best tackle when it comes to run-blocking. Garrett Bradbury has been the seventh best interior offensive lineman when it comes to blocking for the run, according to ESPN.

Starting point is 00:17:40 Can you run the football, please? Then we get to Drake May. And the question is, can Drake May keep it rolling? The Saints defense, Brandon Staley is the defensive coordinator, and he loves to disguise coverages. Evan Lazar wrote about that this week at Patriots.com. The Saints are among the league leaders in disguised pressure. usage calling a schemed pressure on over 9% of their dropbacks, and then they mix match zones with exotic pressures. And as Evan Lizarr points out, that could be challenging to read.

Starting point is 00:18:14 So this is going to be a challenge. It's going to be a unique challenge for Drake May because of all the disguising that Brennan Staley does with his coverages, with some of those disguised pressures that he likes to use, this is a big homework week for Drake May. Now, here's the good news about this matchup for the Pats and the good news about this matchup for Drake May. Taylor Kyle's posted some numbers from Sumer Sports and they were they were great numbers. Drake May is one of the league's best quarterbacks versus disguised coverages. He is first among qualified quarterbacks in completion rate against disguised coverages at 82.5%. He has the third highest yards per attempt against disguised

Starting point is 00:19:00 coverages at 10.4 yards per attempt, 12.6 yards per completion against those coverages, and he has two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Drake May's closest competitors and completion percentage against disguised coverages are Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson, and Jared Gough. So Drake May's numbers would tell you he's done a very good job against disguised coverages. Brandon Staley, defensive coordinator of the Saints, loves disguised coverages. could be some good news.

Starting point is 00:19:35 The other point I will bring up is, you know, again, that Saints defensive line against the actual numbers, the Patriots pass protection should win this matchup. Even if the Saints get Chase Young back, up to this point through five weeks, the Saints are 31st in pressure rate, according to next-gen stats. They're 30 second in time to pressure.

Starting point is 00:20:01 It takes them almost three seconds. It takes them three seconds to get pressure on the quarterback. That's a lifetime in the NFL. And the Patriots, by the way, have the fourth best, fourth best in time to pressure from their offensive line. And here's another part of this. Not only are the Saints 31st in pressure rate, their 31st and pass rush win rate,

Starting point is 00:20:25 their 10th in blitz rate. So they're blitzing a lot, but they're not getting pressure, which is bad news for your defense. Now, I do think Brian Brousie is a difficult matchup. He is 19th in pass rush win rate. He popped on film against the Giants. There were two or three pass rushes that he had that were dynamite. He has a ridiculous spin move on the interior. So Brian Brousie is somebody you want to keep an eye on.

Starting point is 00:20:57 The talent is there for that defensive line. The question is, can they get pressure? Can they be consistent? Because so far, they haven't been. And if that continues on Sunday, Drake May is going to have time to pick apart some of those disguised coverages. So we'll see if the defensive line of the Saints can turn things around. I'll also say this.

Starting point is 00:21:17 The Saints special teams, they stink. Their kickoff coverage stinks. Their punt coverage stinks. Blake Groupie, who is their kicker, is very inconsistent. missed a couple of field goals last weekend against the Giants. And so the Patriots should have the edge on special teams as well. All right. Coming up, the Pat's biggest challenge might have nothing to do with X's and O's this week.

Starting point is 00:21:44 And we will give you our game prediction next as we continue with today's episode of Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. The NFL season is here, and Fandul has an offer that you don't want to miss. Right now, new customers can bet just $5 and get $300 in bonus bets if you win. That's right, pick a bet, put down $5, and if it hits, you'll unlock $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. I love how Fandul gives me so many ways to play, building parlays, trying player props, even following the live lines during games. It makes watching football that much more exciting when you've got a little something riding on the action. Whether you're a casual fan or love diving into the stats,

Starting point is 00:22:31 Fandul makes the game day experience so much better. Again, right now, new customers can bet just $5 and get $300 in bonus bets if you win. Pick a bet, put down $5. If it hits, you'll unlock $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. So what are you waiting for? Visit fandul.com to download the Fanduil app today and get started. I love breaking down matchups. I love looking at X's and O's. I love giving all of you the analytics and the metrics and the stats, but not everything is X's and O's,

Starting point is 00:23:06 and not everything is matchups. And one of the biggest questions for the Patriots this weekend in New Orleans is whether or not they can follow the big win in Buffalo up on the road versus a team that is seen as one of the worst teams in football, Now, with Cesar Ruiz coming back, likely, and Chase Young, maybe coming back to that defense, I do think the Saints are better than what they have looked like the past couple of weeks. Even though they won against the Giants, Giants had five turnovers, and they were five consecutive turnovers.

Starting point is 00:23:38 The New York Giants turned the ball over five straight times on offense. The New York Giants were brutal against the Saints. But I do think the Saints, they have talent on both sides of the football like we have discussed, and adding Cesar Ruiz and adding Chase Young, if that's what happens, gives them even more talent. But they're still, they haven't been able to put it together. They have not been able to find a way to consistently do what they have to do to win football games.

Starting point is 00:24:08 And Kellan Moore is a first time head coach. So can the Patriots follow up that great win in Buffalo Sunday night, prime time in front of a national audience? Can they follow that up down in New Orleans? Orleans on a Sunday afternoon against the team that is certainly not prime time. And it comes down to emotional maturity. How will the Patriots handle expectations? We saw how they handled being the underdog.

Starting point is 00:24:35 Will they be as effective handling the expectations? This is a young team. The Patriots are one of the youngest teams in the NFL. So how do they deal with a little bit of that success? Do they put their feet up? Are they fat and happy? now the veteran leadership like Stefan Diggs and Morgan Moses should help Milton Williams shout out to him because right after the bills game he said quote the world seen what we're

Starting point is 00:25:00 capable of tonight we got to show that bleep every week now unquote so Milton Williams right away after the bills game in that locker room said yeah the world saw what we're made of what we're capable of but we got to do that every week that is a guy who won a Super Bowl last year with the Philadelphia Eagles, who is sending the message to the rest of the locker room. Let's not rest on our laurels. Let's not put the feet up. Let's understand we have a job to do. And going to New Orleans is a business trip. The Patriots have to understand, even though they had that big win against Buffalo in Buffalo, they weren't perfect. It's not like they played flawless football. They made mistakes. The Buffalo Bills made more mistakes.

Starting point is 00:25:48 But the Patriots, when you're self-scouting, you've got to look at that game against the bills and say, well, we still had eight penalties for 93 yards, which is not good. We were still two for four offensively in the red zone, which is not nearly good enough. We still failed to run the football. We had 3.2 yards per carry. That stunk. We need to get that going. We were third.

Starting point is 00:26:15 We were three for nine on third down. That's not good. So if the Patriots want to stay humble, if they want to understand where they are at, if they want to give themselves the best chance to win in New Orleans against a Saints team that they are favored against and should be favored against, if they want to take care of business, they need to remind themselves of their shortcomings.

Starting point is 00:26:39 Understand that they're not close to being a top, top team. Not close. Clean up the penalties. Be better in the red zone. run the football with effectiveness. If you can run the ball, you should be able to convert more third downs. Don't ask Drake May to be a hero on third down all day long. And they need to handle some of the challenges, the logistical challenges, the schedule in what

Starting point is 00:27:09 they're going through. They had a game late night, Sunday night. They don't get home until about 3.30, 4 o'clock in the morning on Monday. So their entire schedule is thrown off, what they're used to. They had a three hour and 35 minute flight down to New Orleans by the time they get there. That's not a short flight. I mean, it's not as long as going to the West Coast, obviously, but that is not a short flight. Over three and a half hours, not a short flight.

Starting point is 00:27:39 Oh, in the game instead of kicking off at 425 Eastern is now kicking off at one Eastern, which means that's a noon kickoff central time. So you're going to be up earlier. You're going to be warming up earlier. You're going to be playing the game earlier than you're used to. So how do you handle those changes and those challenges? The Patriots have to absolutely keep their foot on the gas pedal. They have to go down to New Orleans, not be worried about Bourbon Street,

Starting point is 00:28:11 not be worried about what used to be Harris. I don't think it's Harris anymore. I haven't been out of New Orleans in a few years. Don't be worried about all that. And don't be smelling the roses because you beat the Buffalo Bills last weekend. The way you become a successful program in the NFL is that you treat teams with respect. And you understand that you can lose any given week. That's why the old any given Sunday exists.

Starting point is 00:28:40 Now, I do think Mike Vrable will have these guys prepared mentally. I'm confident that Mike Vrable will have his team ready. but they still have to go out there and execute. Now, before I give you my prediction, I give you one last reminder. Don't forget to like, comment, and sub. And also, we're going to go live Sunday after Saints Patriots. So you want to join us again for that live post game on YouTube. All right, here is my week six prediction.

Starting point is 00:29:10 And of course, you know, does Jalen Hawkins play? What's up with Christian Gonzalez? Was it really planned? I'm going to take the Patriots at their word and say that was planned. and he'll be out there and play fully on Sunday. Does Chase Young come back? Cesar Ruiz. Looks like he's back on the offensive line.

Starting point is 00:29:27 I'm going to go right now with the Patriots winning this football game. They're favored by three and a half points. I've got the Patriots, 24. I've got the Saints. 17. I don't think the Saints unless the Patriots have turnovers. And even if so, I don't think the Saints will score a lot of points. They struggle in the red area.

Starting point is 00:29:47 The New York Giants, again, turn the. the ball over five straight times, and New Orleans only finished, even though they got five turnovers from the Giants, they only finished with 26 points, and that included a scoop and score off a Giants fumble. So this Saints offense has struggled with scoring points. So I've got the Patriots 24. I've got the Saints, 17. All right, that wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being in every dayer. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Ray. And again, don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel.

Starting point is 00:30:22 And for your second listen, get a double dose of the Lockdown NFL podcast with Tyler the Madman Roland. I joined Tyler on Friday mornings, if you want to check that out. And Tony Wiggins, find Lockdown NFL on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcast. Have a great day. And we will see you on Sunday for the live post game.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Challenge: Patriots Face Unique Tests In New Orleans | Trench Warfare

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