Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Chasing Greatness: Drake Maye Overtaking Josh Allen? | Shattering Expectations

Starting point is 00:00:00 Since before the 2024 NFL draft, Drake May has been compared to Josh Allen. And as we get ready for Sunday, you might be surprised by how close they really are. This is Locked-on Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcasts network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattles, born and raised in New England and covering the Pats for the past 16 years.

Starting point is 00:00:35 Also the co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattels and a sports radio veteran. Welcome to Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. On today's episode, we'll give you a defensive stat that will shock you in whether or not we should believe in it. Also, as tough as it might be, we'll try to convince you that this run game,

Starting point is 00:01:00 yes, this run game could turn around over the final month. But first, Josh Allen versus Drake May. Today's episode is brought to by Fandul. If you want to be right in the middle of the action this season, visit Fandul.com and place your NFL live bets all season long. Drake May is in the MVP conversation. It is my opinion. I think it's many people's opinions that Drake May is the MVP,

Starting point is 00:01:26 right now. If you were going to give out the award with one month left, Drake May would be that guy. And of course, last year's MVP was Josh Allen. So you have last year's MVP facing off against possibly this year's MVP on Sunday. And both guys are having high-level seasons. But the question is, how close, how close is Drake May to Josh Allen? truly. How close is this race? Is Drake May still racing from well behind? Is he catching up to Josh Allen? Has he caught up to Josh Allen? Let's first not be disingenuous. It's one of my favorite words. Don't be disingenuous. Let's be honest. Let's be fair. Let's be objective. The Buffalo Bills have had the tougher schedule than the Patriots. As we get ready for week 15,

Starting point is 00:02:22 there's really not much of an argument for that. And it comes down to two games so far because when you look at this season, a ton of common opponents for the Bills and the Patriots in the same division. They play against the same division once a year. So when you look at the commonalities, a lot more commonalities than differences,

Starting point is 00:02:43 but it comes down to two games so far in a third game that the Buffalo Bills have yet to play. The Bills played Kansas City in Buffalo. It's because the Buffalo Bills had the first place schedule, and Kansas City was the first place team. The Patriots, meanwhile, had the Vegas Raiders in Foxborough. Huge difference. Even with Kansas City not being as good as we thought they were going to be, Kansas City is a much better football team than the Raiders. Then you look at the AFC South component of the schedule.

Starting point is 00:03:17 The Bills had to go to Houston and play the Texans. Very tough game. The Patriots instead had to go to Tennessee and play the Titans, a not so tough game. And then you look at the final game, you know, the Giants in Foxborough on Monday night, that's the NFC East, AFC East matchup. Meanwhile, the Bills, they have to host the Eagles on week 18. So the Eagles are likely going to be fighting for at least playoff seating, if not the division, the way they're playing recently.

Starting point is 00:03:49 So, of course, if you're looking at the Patriots versus the Bills, Kansas City, Houston, Philadelphia is a much, much tougher slate than Vegas, Tennessee, and the New York Giants. There's no arguing that. I would also say that the Buffalo Bills wide receivers are worse than the Patriots wide receivers. I would take the Pats wide receiver room over the Bills wide receiver room every single day of the week twice on Sunday. You see what I did there. But again, not being

Starting point is 00:04:21 disingenuous. Let's also look at Drake May's side of this conversation. Some of the things that are working against him. Josh Allen has a tougher schedule and he has less at wide receiver. But Drake May, he is playing in this Josh McDaniels offense for the first time. This is his second offense in as many NFL seasons that he has had to master, so to speak. We know that Josh Allen, very comfortable in Joe Brady's offense. You look at the offensive line, it's not even close. The Patriots offensive line in 2025 is obviously better than it was in 2024, but the Patriots offensive line is not close to the Buffalo Bill's offensive line.

Starting point is 00:05:06 It's just not close. The Bill's offensive line has been really, really. really good. They've got two top tackles and Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown. And obviously Spencer Brown was out last week. If you didn't know that, now you know. Maybe he come back this week. But when you look at those two

Starting point is 00:05:23 tackles, Connor McGovern, in the middle at center, the Buffalo Bill's offensive line is much, much better than the Patriots offensive line. And it should go without saying the Bill's running game is much better than the Patriots run game. James Cook

Starting point is 00:05:39 has been one of the best running backs in the NFL this year, the Patriots have been trying to find consistency on the ground. So while Josh Allen has the tougher schedule and has less at wide receiver, Drake May learning a new offense, shake your offensive line, in a much worse run game. So how do the numbers stack up? Let's look at passer rating, and I'm just looking at passing numbers. Passer rating, Drake May, better than Josh Allen, 11.9 against 102.9. QBR Drake May 72.2. Josh Allen, 65.2. EPA, Drake May, 102.2. Josh Allen, 79.6. EPA per dropback,

Starting point is 00:06:27 you've got Drake May at plus 0.22, Allen at plus 0.18. And completion percentage over expected. Drake May plus 8.2, Josh Allen plus 1.9. So, Drake May is analytically better than Josh Allen this year in passerating QBR, EPA, EPA per dropback, and completion percentage over expected. What's interesting, and of course, some of this is on the quarterback, and in Drake May's case, a decent amount of pressure rate is on the quarterback, but Drake May has faced more pressure than Josh Allen, which goes. goes hand in hand with the offensive line conversation. Drake May has faced a pressure rate of

Starting point is 00:07:14 38.6%. Josh Allen is under 30% at 29.6. Now, I'm not making the argument that Drake May is a better quarterback than Josh Allen in this 2025 season when you look at their careers and where they're at. Josh Allen has won an MVP. Josh Allen has won playoff games at the NFL level. That's not the argument. But here's what's fascinating. Drake May, when you look at it analytically, statistically, when you put the context in there as well like we did, the fact is Drake May in 2025, this season is nipping at the heels of Josh Allen. In the very fact that Drake May is even nipping at those heels is absolutely unreal. If you told me that by week 15 of this season, that we could have a conversation about Drake May versus Josh Allen, and it's not

Starting point is 00:08:12 Josh Allen laughing, walking away? I would have been surprised. And I thought that Drake May would get better throughout this season. But as I said before the season, a leap for Drake May to me was getting into the top 10 conversation, the discussion, being maybe the 10th, 11th, 12th best quarterback in the league by week 18. Drake May is now the frontrunner for the MVP. And there's no doubt that when you go back and forth on this battle between these two quarterbacks that are going to play in this game on Sunday with huge stakes on the table, there's no doubt that Drake May, the second year quarterback in his first year

Starting point is 00:08:54 in this Josh McDaniels offense is right there. As far as 2025 in a vacuum, he is right. there with Josh Allen, and he is having the better season than Josh Allen. Josh Allen's been terrific. It's just Drake May has been dynamite. I'm not telling you that Josh Allen is not the better quarterback. Looking at these statistics in the vacuum and looking at how far Drake May has had to come, I think it's just a tremendous, a tremendous feather in the cap of the Patriots

Starting point is 00:09:29 that we can even have this talk. May is only 23 years old. Josh Allen was 23 in his second NFL season. And he completed less than 60% of his passes, had 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. If you're wondering, Josh Allen turns 30 in May. But just this talk, just this talk itself,

Starting point is 00:09:52 that you won't get laughed at, having this conversation about, is Drake May catching up the job? Josh Allen, you're not going to get laughed at. He is absolutely nipping on those heels. There's no doubt. All right, maybe we are high on opium, but we'll tell you why thinking the run game could be on the precipice of turning around

Starting point is 00:10:13 is not necessarily outlandish. That's next as we continue with today's episode of Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. If you're still overpaying for wireless, It's time to say yes to saying no. Admit mobile, their favorite word is no, no contracts, no monthly bills, no overages, no hidden fees, no BS. You can say yes to making the switch and get premium wireless for just $15 a month. Mint makes it simple. All plans come with high speed data and unlimited talk and text delivered on the nation's largest 5G network. You can even bring your own phone and keep your same number in contacts. And here's what's great about Mitt Mobile. The setup is super easy. Again, you keep the number. you're running in minutes. You're getting the same quality service you had before,

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Starting point is 00:11:58 Don't forget to help us out by clicking that thumbs up if you're watching on YouTube, like, comment. How do you feel about the Drake May versus Josh Allen conversation now as we get ready for week 15 of this season? And don't forget to subscribe as we continue to march towards 8,000 subs. During a by week, it is a top priority for any NFL team to fix some of their issues. And we know the Patriots, they've had some issues in certain categories. this year. You know, I talked about it earlier in the week when we were discussing the red zone offensive problems for the Patriots, especially recently, going against teams that did not have good red zone defenses. It's okay. It's okay to admit that the Patriots are falling

Starting point is 00:12:45 short in a few categories with also saying that they've had a terrific season. They're 11 and 2 in the two seat in the AFC. And they have absolutely exceeded all of the grandest expectations. that anybody would have had for this team going back to August. Both things can be true. And one of the issues for the Patriots all year long is the run game. They have not had run game consistency, and it needs to improve over the final month. The Patriots are 29th in run game success rate.

Starting point is 00:13:21 They are 27th in rushing EPA. And this is with Drake May's ability to scramble in some of his big runs, some of his explosive runs. You're still one of the worst run offenses in football when looking at a number of different categories. So is there any room for hope? Yes, I am here to tell you, my friends, there is still room for hope.

Starting point is 00:13:47 There is still an opportunity to fix this and let's start with their rookie running back out of the Ohio State, Trayvion Henderson, who happens to be the reigning offensive rookie of the month. In November, Trayvion Henderson was really good. Taylor Kyle's from CLNS posted recently on Twitter. When you look at Weeks 9 through 12, Trayvion Henderson, pretty dynamite, man,

Starting point is 00:14:20 among 32 qualified running backs, his yards per rush were tied for the 5th. most. His yards after contact were the second most. His yards after contact per attempt was third most. His breakaway percentage was the fourth highest in the NFL, and he was tied for the most rushing touchdowns with four. So he was top five in yards per carry, yards after contact, yards after contact per carry, breakaway percentage, and touchdowns. And by the way, when targeted in the passing game, Drake May had a 100. 11.4 passer rating when targeting Trayvion Henderson, which was ninth among qualified running

Starting point is 00:15:02 backs. Taylor Kyle also threw this note in. Only Derek Henry had more rushing yards after contact. Pretty, pretty, pretty good company to say King Henry is the only guy who had more rushing yards after contact than Trayvion Henderson. Just look at the size of each dude. Not even close. Now, for people screaming, if it weren't for the Bucks game, I'm going to scream back. That is a part of the Trayvion Henderson package. Part of the idea of Trayvon Henderson is that he can break a big run at any moment, that he can make a 75-yard house call at the drop of a hat. That is part of the allure of Trayvon Henderson. It's why you drafted him with a top 40 pick, his home run ability. I'm not going to hold that Bucks game against him.

Starting point is 00:15:56 He had two huge touchdown runs because that is a part. That is a part of his game. That is part of the fabric of what makes him so enticing. Why you bring him in, why we talk highly of him during camp, why he's been as good as he's been over the past month. Because he can break those runs. It is part of the package. That's the deal with Trayvion Henderson. So Trayvion Henderson, coming off the offensive rookie of the month in November, playing his best football yet at the NFL level, still very young, no reason to believe that he won't get better.

Starting point is 00:16:36 Meanwhile, you got Ramandre Stevenson. And I'm going to look back at Monday night. I'm going to look back at Ramondre Stevenson's first half against the Giants. because that first half against the Giants looked more like Ramandre Stevenson. Now, he hasn't had everything figured out, that's for sure. There were one or two runs in the second half where he should have gotten more out of those runs.

Starting point is 00:17:02 But I think you will see a better Remandre Stevenson after the bye week. I think he will be as healthy as he has been since going back a month, month and a half ago. And I still think he is a good running back. The fumble problems, we all know about him. Aside from the Pittsburgh game, he's done a good job of taking care of the football. And if he can continue to do that, I still think he can give you production.

Starting point is 00:17:31 And you look back at that first half when you had both Ramandre Stevenson and Trevionn Henderson going a little bit. And they were right around, both of them were right around six yards per carry. That's what I'm talking about. That's the hope. look that first half that's the hope and let's not forget that you have josh mcdaniels as the offensive coordinator and part of the by week is self-scouting i'm sure josh mcdaniels spent a good amount of time looking at the film and i'm sure he spent a good amount of time trying to figure out what they do best in the run game and how they can accentuate those strengths

Starting point is 00:18:10 Accentuate the strengths, hide the weaknesses, the most important part of being a coach. And so you've got the self-scouting that Josh McDaniels just did, his history of figuring things out, especially in the run game. I feel like looking at Trayvon-Hentersons November, looking at a Ramandre Stevenson, who should be healthier than he's been in a good month,

Starting point is 00:18:32 month and a half, Josh McDaniels getting a week to look back and figure out what they can do better. I think that gives them the, opportunity to improve their run game over the final month of the season. Am I guaranteeing it? Heck no. No way on God's green earth is this a guarantee. In no way, is this a guarantee? I'm trying to give you hope. And I think there is hope. Far from a guarantee, but there's hope. Travion Henderson continues to improve. Remandre, healthier, the offensive coordinator, you've got

Starting point is 00:19:10 a chance. As was once said, so you're saying they got a chance. Yeah, they got a chance to run the football better over the final month. Get that part going as you prepare for the playoff. A defensive stat that might knock you out of your chair. That's coming up. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. NFL Sundays move fast, one big play, and suddenly everything feels different. That's what makes live betting with Fandul so exciting. You're not just watching the game. You're reacting to it in real time.

Starting point is 00:19:51 With Fandul, you can place bets as the action unfolds, every drive, every momentum swing, every highlight moment. Live betting is best when the game starts to shift like a receiver getting hot, a defense tightening up, or the momentum flipping after a dramatic turnover. And Fandul lets you jump into the moment. live spreads and money lines adjust instantly player props update as guys heat up you can bet next touchdown scores drive results totals and more it keeps you locked in to every single snap drive impossibility so if you want to be right in the middle of the action this season i want you to visit this website website of course is fandul dot com go to fandul dot com and place your

Starting point is 00:20:33 nfl live bets all season long fandul the game moves fast and well so can you you don't forget to like comment and subscribe when you go to a bar or a restaurant or church wherever you go this weekend if you asked someone at the bar at the restaurant at the church if you ask them about the patriots past defense what do you think their response would be I think many people would say, oh, terrible, terrible, not good enough. The actual numbers, I think, are going to shock you because the actual numbers tell us the Patriots passing defense has made major strides. Chad Graf of The Athletic wrote this week, since Christian Gonzalez returned in week four from a hamstring injury, the Patriots rank fifth in the NFL and EPA per play.

Starting point is 00:21:33 against the pass. Now, if you think the run defense is as good, if not better, you'd be wrong. The Patriots actually ranked 16th since week four against the run in that statistic. Now, of course, the run defense, the EPA and the run game, that all has to do about the last month that we've seen. The Patriots run defense has not been nearly as good the last three or four games as it was the prior eight or nine games. There's no arguing that. We've gone through some of the numbers. You could actually argue that it has been a precipitous decline for the Patriots

Starting point is 00:22:12 run defense. So that explains to me the run game stuff. The last month has been much tougher. They were one of, if not the best, I would say the best run defense in football until the last three or four games. We also, again, we have to be objective. We've got to be fair. And when we look at past defense and EPA, of course, the quarterbacks that you play matter.

Starting point is 00:22:39 So just looking, going back to week four since Christian Gonzalez returned because that's the stat. That's the premise. Let's look back. So week four, you had Bryce Young. Bryce Young has improved. I was very harsh on Bryce Young after watching that Panthers game. I was concerned for his NFL future. But the fact is, Bryce Young has been better, Carolina has been better,

Starting point is 00:23:03 and they are far from being a joke in the NFL. So Bryce Young, okay, he's improved. Josh Allen's Josh Allen. Spencer Rattler, week six, eventually benched by the Saints. Cam Ward, week seven, yikes. Not because of Cam Ward, but because of his team. Dylan Gabriel, yikes, because of Dylan. and Gabriel in the team.

Starting point is 00:23:28 Michael Pennix stunk this year before he tore his ACL. Baker Mayfield, going back, if we talked about the first six or seven weeks in the NFL season, Baker Mayfield was a legitimate NFL candidate. Not so much anymore. I don't think Baker Mayfield is healthy, and you've seen a bunch of injuries for Tampa Bay impact that offense. And frankly, Baker Mayfield, the offense and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers overall. They are fading.

Starting point is 00:23:58 They've got to put it back together again and find ways to win over the last month. Then you had Justin Fields. Enough said. Joe Flacco, solid. He was solid with Cincinnati before Joe Burrow returned, but let's not forget, Joe Flacco did not have Jamar Chase

Starting point is 00:24:15 when they played against the Patriots. And then you had Jackson Dart, without Cam Scataboo, and without Malik neighbors. So the context matters, being fair, you would look at those quarterbacks I just mentioned in those offenses and say, yet the past defense should be good to really good

Starting point is 00:24:34 against those quarterbacks. But I would also say it wasn't all about the quarterbacks they faced. The fact is, the Patriots are talented at defensive back. Christian Gonzalez, when he's right, like he was against the Giants, when he's playing at his best,

Starting point is 00:24:53 is easily one of the best corners in football. Carlton Davis is one of the best number two corners in football. And Marcus Jones has been absolutely terrific this year on the balance. So they have legitimate talent in the top three cornerback positions. There's just no arguing that. I would also mention that Craig Woodson, rookie safety from Cal. He has improved throughout the season. And he is starting to be a steady, solid piece to this past defense.

Starting point is 00:25:23 Yes, he'll make a mistake or two, but that's what happens to rookies. And if we're going to sit there and talk about the schedule and we're going to talk about the quarterbacks that the Patriots have faced and how much their EPA per play has improved against the pass, we have to be fair and say, well, the first three weeks, they were torched. And it wasn't like they were playing the best quarterbacks in football. Week one was Gino Smith. He's had a terrible season. Tua Tunga Vailoa has been all over.

Starting point is 00:25:53 the place up and down. That was week two, and week three was Aaron Rogers. And that Pittsburgh Steelers' offense and passing attack is far from vicious. But even that, against Gino Smith, Tuatunga Vailoa, and Aaron Rogers, the secondary pretty much got torched for the most part, giving up big play after big play, especially week one against Vegas. So even against quarterbacks that were not, you know, much better than some of the other quarterbacks they've played since starting there in week four, they got torched. So I do think the past defense

Starting point is 00:26:27 continues to get better as the season moves along with a huge test this Sunday with Josh Allen coming to town. Also, I would want to mention this. We can look at the quarterbacks, the Patriots have faced. We can look at the offenses,

Starting point is 00:26:46 the Patriots have faced, and we can talk about the schedule all that we want. But the fact is, the AFC is not very strong this year. That's a fact. And if you look at the teams that are in the playoffs right now, does any passing attack brighten you? Does the Chargers passing attack frighten you

Starting point is 00:27:09 with the offensive line issues they have? Justin Herbert was pressured more than 60% of the time on Monday night. The Houston Texans have had major issues in the second half with their first-time offensive coordinator calling plays, Nick Cayley. Do they frighten you offensively? No. Does Trevor Lawrence frighten you? Does not frighten me.

Starting point is 00:27:34 He's playing better, but we have also seen this before where he can have a good stretch, and then sometimes he just kind of turns into a pumpkin for a game or two. The Pittsburgh Steelers, not afraid of them, not afraid of their defense, not afraid of their offense. they needed you to turn the ball over five times to lose, you know, for you to lose a game by a touchdown. Not afraid of Pittsburgh.

Starting point is 00:27:58 And I'm not afraid of Bo Nix. So we all got to keep it relative. And the point is that when you look around the AFC, I mean, Joe Burrow and Cincinnati is a dangerous passing offense, they're not going to be in it. Usually you're afraid of Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City has like a 10% chance of getting to the playoffs after this past weekend.

Starting point is 00:28:25 And they've got a ton of offensive line problems. And then you would look at Lamar Jackson and Baltimore. Lamar Jackson, I don't think is healthy. And the Ravens are struggling mightily. And they're probably not going to make it. So in this specific year, when we talk about past defense, we talk about offenses and quarterbacks that you've played. And then you look at the playoff field

Starting point is 00:28:46 if the season was going to end right now, there's really no offense that frightens you in that group. And with your secondary, you should be able to hang with anybody, especially in that group. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer.

Starting point is 00:29:06 Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. Don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel, hit the like button and subscribe. And did Lockdown Patriots make your Spotify wrap? Prove it on social media to secure a free month of our brand new Everydayer Club. Just tag our national lockdown podcast network account on any social platform and we'll drop you a code. Be one of the first to join the Everydayer Club to get your favorite show. This one, add free and exclusive access to the members-only Discord channel.

Starting point is 00:29:38 Have a great day and we will see you tomorrow for the Bills Patriots crossover.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Chasing Greatness: Drake Maye Overtaking Josh Allen? | Shattering Expectations

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