Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Christian Gonzalez’s Return Imminent? | Did Josh McDaniels Overhaul Offense?

Starting point is 00:00:00 A surprise release could foreshadow the return of the Pat's most talented player. That's where we start. This is Locked-on Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots. Your daily New England Patriots podcast. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Your team every day. What's happening?

Starting point is 00:00:24 I am your host, Nick. Cattos, born and raised in New England. also co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattos. I've been covering the team for the last 16 years and a sports talk show host veteran as well. Coming up, we take a scalpel to the Josh McDaniels offense from week one and tell you what has changed and what needs to change moving forward. Also, one of the most underrated parts of camp ends up being one of the only bright spots for the Pat's offense in week one.

Starting point is 00:00:53 But first, the possible domino effect from a surprise. cut of a camp standout. We appreciate you joining the show, making us your first listening for being an everydayer, the Lockdown Patriots podcast, a proud partner, the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. And today's episode is brought to by Fandul. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you'll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app.

Starting point is 00:01:20 One of the best stories of camp has been cut. DJ James is gone. cornerback originally from the Seattle Seahawks came into camp with the Patriots won a lot of people over and not just because he speaks in the third person but because he had a good camp if not very good camp one of the surprise names sticky coverage and it was pretty obvious that DJ James was going to make this roster with a couple of weeks left of camp I mean that's how solidified he was felt really good about what he did. The team felt really good about what he did, and he was out there active roster on Sunday against the Raiders. But now he's gone. And it's a fascinating

Starting point is 00:02:05 decision because first and foremost, this could, and I stress, could. This could mean the return of Christian Gonzalez. We are now about six weeks deep post-injury to Gonzalez's hamstrass. And if it's a grade one strain, it's one to three weeks. If it's a grade two strain, it's three to six. If it's beyond that, a grade three, then we're talking about six plus weeks. Obviously, the team doesn't feel like Gonzalez has a strain that is bad enough to place him on injured reserve and say, just take the next four weeks and chill out. Just wait it out. That wasn't the case.

Starting point is 00:02:49 They could have put him on IR short term like Jelani Tavai. They didn't. So now that were just about six weeks post injury, it would feel like it's time for Gonzalez to come back as long as he did not have a grade three. And with the deductive reasoning we just shared with you, we have to feel pretty confident that it's a grade two. So this could mean the return of Gonzalez. get rid of one cornerback, activate Gonzalez, put him on the roster, get him ready for Sunday in Miami. And if Gonzalez does come back, if that's the reason why this move has been made, it's a huge lift for not only the defensive backs, but also the defense overall.

Starting point is 00:03:36 Christian Gonzalez is so good that he changes the dynamics. He could change your coverage. He could change your philosophy as a defensive. coordinator. And with Gonzalez, along with Carlton Davis, you have what this Patriot staff envisioned when they signed Davis, which is two corners that can lock guys down in man press coverage. So it would be a huge help for the cornerback room if they get their best guy back. It would be a huge help for this defense if they get their best guy back. Because if you have Gonzalez, who you can trust thoroughly, and you have Carlton Davis, who you can trust

Starting point is 00:04:18 mostly, and you have Alex Austin, who was okay against the Raiders as your third corner to go along with the very experienced Marcus Jones, then you feel very confident in playing the man coverage that you played against the Raiders. You feel even more confident in that man coverage that you played against the Raiders. And man, would it be perfect timing to come back to play against Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle after the dolphins struggled mightily on offense in week one at Indianapolis. It would be the perfect time to throw Christian Gonzalez out there with Davis

Starting point is 00:04:55 and say, have Adam, fellas, make Tuatung of ILO's life miserable. But it's not just the possibility of Gonzalez coming back why maybe just maybe James gets cut. You look at DJ James getting cut and it could just simply mean that the Patriots like themselves, maybe love themselves, some Corey Ballantyne. Maybe they want to see more of Valentine. Valentine's a guy who was a core special teamer with the Green Bay Packers. He had really built the reputation of being pretty darn good on special teams.

Starting point is 00:05:32 DJ James played a few snaps on special teams against the Raiders. And as Mike Reese pointed out just a few moments ago with his post, Raiders gunners did have some success. So maybe this is just as simple as it has nothing to do with Gonzalez, but it actually has to do with Valentine and a little bit of shifting the very bottom of the roster and making sure that you keep Valentine there. You don't put him back on the practice squad. You keep him on the team.

Starting point is 00:06:04 He's ready to go as your core special teams guy. Maybe that's just a simple move. And maybe you want to bring another body on at a another position. Valentine's an experienced guy. This is his sixth year in the NFL, so he's been around the block. He understands his role. He knows he's not going to be a starting corner. He understands that it's special teams that is going to keep him getting paychecks from the league. So maybe it's just a simple swap of guys that are towards the end of that cornerback depth on your active roster. And we saw some of this, you know, late,

Starting point is 00:06:41 last week. We didn't get to talk about it on the podcast, but the Patriots right before that Raiders game, I think it was Saturday. They ended up dropping Jeremiah Farms, who just today ends up signing back and going to the practice squad. And they make that Farms for Durdent change on the defensive line. And that was in the 23rd hour right before the Raiders game on Sunday. So I think the Patriots roster, as we've had these conversations, leading up to the regular season and we're going to continue to have these conversations throughout the regular season. This team is not very deep.

Starting point is 00:07:20 And so what you're going to see, I believe, is some decent turnover towards the end of your roster. You're going to see guys off. You're going to see guys on. And I'm not just talking about elevating practice squad dudes. I'm talking about cutting guys like James and going out and maybe getting somebody else. Cutting somebody like farms and going out and getting somebody else. but if this is the return of Gonzalez

Starting point is 00:07:43 and you do keep Valentine active and you want your six cornerbacks you would have Gonzalez Davis, Austin, Jones, Charles Woods who you claimed from the Rams before the season and Valentine. Those would be your six corners.

Starting point is 00:08:04 And I think you're solid if you've got Gonzalez and Davis, Austin, and Jones, and then you've been, got, you know, Woods and Ballantine who you could interchange. You put them on special teams. Both guys are known for some special teams play. And you can always hope to upgrade as the season goes along on that depth. But I would like to see them settle and give their defensive backfield a chance to find the mojo to find the chemistry, especially if Terrell

Starting point is 00:08:34 Williams is going to call the type of defense that he called on Sunday, which was, we were ready for aggressive, but that was Uber aggressive. Lots of blitzing. And you need a lot of communication. So you want to make sure that you have guys out on the field that have played snaps together. So I would like them to settle to see what they have with this cornerback group, even the balantines and the woodses of the world. And then if you've got to move forward with somebody else, then make that decision a few weeks down the road. But I would like them to settle for at least a couple of weeks to see what they have, especially if Gonzalez does return. And if Gonzalez is back and you have what you wanted when you signed Carlton Davis,

Starting point is 00:09:15 that will also help the safety room because your corner coverage should be so good. So we'll see. We'll see if this does mean the return of Christian Gonzalez. And we should find out over the next 24 hours or so if he's ready to go and get on the field. Up next, we'll tell you why Sunday should have left you with hope and concern, regarding Josh McDaniel's offense. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. The NFL season is here, and Fandul is making sure you're ready for kickoff with a can't miss offer. Right now, new customers can bet just $5, and if your bet wins, you'll get

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Starting point is 00:12:03 But I want to start with the idea of what we saw from this offense. on Sunday. And I'll begin with a complete lack of motion, pre-snap motion, motion at the snap. Jacob Gibbs from the fantasy football newsletter heading into Monday night put together this really cool graph and chart that you can see play action rate to go along with pre-snap motion rate. And you look at the offenses and how they approached their respective games. And the Patriots, they had less than 30 percent.

Starting point is 00:12:37 Less than 30% pre-snap motion in the NFL, you look at that number. What does it mean? I'll tell you what it means. The Patriots heading into Monday night before that crazy Minnesota-Chicago game, heading into Monday night, the Patriots were 27th out of a possible 30 teams in pre-snap motion. Now, they did have more motion than Buffalo, but Buffalo has Josh Allen. They had more motion than Tennessee. And interestingly enough, they had more motion.

Starting point is 00:13:07 motion, if you look at it, you know, not by much, but they had more motion than Vegas. So you had two offenses out there, Chip Kelly and Josh McDaniel's offense, not showing a lot of motion. And I don't remember, and I watched this game twice, I don't remember much misdirection. I don't remember much deception before the snap. It was a lot of vanilla looks. It really was. And if you're running less than 30% motion, to me, that's not enough.

Starting point is 00:13:41 And it wasn't only in the passing game. It was also in the run game. The lack of motion in the run game was much less than ideal. Evan Lazar wrote about it at Patriots.com. The Pats ranked 30th in motion rate on designed run plays. 50% of the time they motion, motioning at just the snap just six times. So you were overall under 30% in motion, which put you 27th out of 30th. And then you look at motion rate on design runs, and you were 30th in the league.

Starting point is 00:14:19 And then you motioned at the snap just six times. And if you're wondering, Josh McDaniels, when he was with Vegas, Vegas was 32nd in the NFL. Last time I checked, that would be dead last. 32nd in the NFL in motion at the snap during his roughly year and a half as the Raiders head coach. Now, if you're wondering, you know, where the motion, when you're running the football, where that kind of stacks up, the Patriots were at 50%. Lazar writes, for comparison, the league average motion rate was 68.5%. So the Patriots were almost 20% below the average motion rate on designed run plays. Sean McVeigh loves this stuff.

Starting point is 00:15:09 The Rams motioned on a league high, 95.7% of their run plays. Just an astonishing number. So a lack of motion. What you see is what you get. And when you run an offense like that, you can be successful. Again, look at Josh Allen and the Buffalo. bills. They're successful at what they do. Joe Brady is known as one of the smarter offensive minds and football Buffalo's offensive coordinator. But if you're going to go with

Starting point is 00:15:39 a lack of motion, if you're going to run that type of offense, you need to be great at it or your DOA. Because defenses, if they know what's coming, if they are prepared, then they're going to get the best of you, the vast majority of the time. So if you are going to run an offense, without much misdirection or deception, then you better do what you do very, very well. And obviously, the Patriots did not do what they want to do very, very well against the Raiders. Now, I will say, so that's a concern, the lack of motion. I will say there are a couple of things that give me some hope.

Starting point is 00:16:23 McDaniels did, in fact, use Drake May's legs against the Raiders. Now, he didn't use his legs a ton, and obviously you're not going to use Drake May's legs a ton in the run game when you don't run the football pretty much the entire second half. But McDaniels did use Drake May and his athleticism. They ran a speed option with Trayvion Henderson. They ran an RPO zone read. But, of course, if you're going to run those types of plays, you got to block it up. And unfortunately, against the Raiders, the offensive line just did. not block up the run game nearly enough, which I'm sure if McDaniels was thinking of running

Starting point is 00:17:03 May more than he did made him hesitate. And he said, you know what? I'm not going to risk it because I don't want to put Drake May in harm's way, the way that we're not blocking up the run game. We're not getting the initial push. We're not getting to the second level enough. Our guys are not doing a great job of pulling when we asked them to. And some of the stuff that we ran like the speed option with Henderson, it was a little

Starting point is 00:17:27 bit clunky looking. So let's just take a step back. Let's not go crazy. But at least McDaniels showed, at least he showed some, some wiggle room within his offense to utilize May's athleticism. There was also a big passing game change, which gives me some hope. Dan Rolovsky posted months ago on Twitter this graphic of the Raiders offense under Josh McDaniels. And it looked at the NFL ranks from 22 and 23 through week eight because McDaniels got popped after week eight in 2023 and it looked at a couple of numbers play action percentage and shotgun percentage. I want to focus on shotgun percentage. When McDaniels was with the Raiders in 22 and half of 23, the Raiders were 30th in the NFL in shotgun percentage at 53%.

Starting point is 00:18:23 Greg Bedard at BSJ wrote about the Patriots using the shotgun versus under center. And according to next-gen stats, Drake May was in the shotgun on 85.2% of his dropbacks against the Raiders. That was the ninth most among qualified quarterbacks. May was only under center at 12.2%, which was 25th in the NFL. Now, yes, you can be predictable if you continue to have that massive gap of a split there between those two things, the shotgun and under-center. But why this gives me hope, much like using May's athleticism, McDaniels is leaning in on what Drake May is comfortable with, which is the shotgun. May is much more comfortable in shotgun formation. So McDaniels has shown some wiggle room with that.

Starting point is 00:19:16 30th in the NFL with Derek Carr and company in Vegas for that year and a half. First game with the Patriots, back with the Patriots, Drake May, a guy who is very comfortable in the shotgun, you run it more than 85% of the time. So that shows a little bit of flexibility as a play caller. And it shows that he's trying to frame the offense around May, which gives me hope. As far as play action, well, if you don't run a lot under center, you're not. going to have a lot of play action, and the play action rate was around 20%, which was about 20th out of 30 NFL teams heading into Monday night.

Starting point is 00:19:56 But again, the lack of the run can be the reason why. And ultimately, just the question is, you know, some of this stuff, when you look at it, the play action rate being low, the lack of motion, is this a case of McDaniels being stubborn and saying, we do what we do? Or was this a case of McDaniels saying, we've just got, way too much new right now, and I don't want to throw a bunch of things at Drake May and the rest of these guys. Defensively, Tara Williams threw a lot at that defense, and you saw them give up nine plays of 20 plus yards. So this could be McDaniels being calculated saying

Starting point is 00:20:34 May is learning this scheme. We've got four out of five offensive linemen who are new to this football team. We've got a number of wide receivers who are new. We've got Henderson, who is new. so let's just try to go a little bit more vanilla early this season. Maybe that's it. But if we see that lack of motion as the weeks go on, that will cause me some concern. So some hope and some concern from week one when watching Josh McDaniels' offense and looking at the analytics. The more time passes, the more it feels like the Pat's found a gem late in the

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Starting point is 00:22:20 Mazda, move, and be moved. This is unequivocal, unequivocal. Kishon Booty is currently your number one wide receiver. Stefan Diggs had about 30 snaps on Sunday. Pop Douglas was mostly non-existent. Mack Hollins didn't do much. Kyle Williams barely got on the field. Kishon Booty is your number one guy.

Starting point is 00:22:44 six catches, 103 yards, a very good start for Booty. And one guy who wasn't surprised is Kayshan Booty. This is transcribed from Doug Kide of the Boston Herald. Yes, that rhymed. Quote, I think people failed to realize that at one point in time, I was a first round pick just before my surgery. I think a lot of people doubt that I can do what I do, but I mean, I always knew what I can do.

Starting point is 00:23:09 But for some people, it is a surprise. But to me, it's just always what I used. to do. So booty's telling us, I'm talented, man. I'm talented enough to be a first round pick. The only reason why I fell all the way down to the sixth round was because I had an injury that did not allow me to get out there and work out and give you the 40 times and all that good stuff that hurt my value. And now I'm proving it. I'm proving it that I had the talent and it was just an injury holding me back. And to the rest of the NFL, you all messed up. And I'm telling you, I am taking booty seriously. I am. I am taking booty seriously. I

Starting point is 00:23:44 am taking him seriously. Last year, 43 catches just under 600 yards and three touchdowns, and you think about how much of a mess 2024 was with that offense. I mean, it was an absolute disaster show. From the offensive coordinator to the offensive line, to the quarterback play, to the lack of weapons, you're starting running back, fumbling the football every 15 carries or so, it felt like. It was a mess. offense, and Booty somehow, some way, finished with just under 45 catches and 600 yards. That's not too bad, given the circumstances. And then he goes from last year, which you wonder was that kind of fool's gold, what's

Starting point is 00:24:27 going on there, you know, lack of other people being involved and maybe just maybe it was by default, Booty did that. He walks into camp and he consistently, consistently made plays in camp and had a good camp. And there's no denying that booty has the chemistry with May. There's just no denying. You see Drake May being very comfortable, throwing back shoulder to booty multiple times on Sunday, feeling like his guy is going to make a play. And a number of those plays, the coverage was tight.

Starting point is 00:25:00 And May just believed, he just believed that booty was going to understand what he was trying to do, quarterback to receiver. So you see the chemistry. It is obvious. Now, the other thing about booty is there is a downfield element to his game, which brings the downfield element to this offense, which has been sorely lacking. Now, he hasn't been efficient downfield when you talk about, you know,

Starting point is 00:25:26 long distance shots take. And we've talked about that leading into the season, not the most efficient vertical pass catcher, but he does help you in the intermediate to deeper areas. Taylor Kyle's of CLNS before Monday Night Football posted that booty was tied for the lead in downfield catches. In the entire NFL, he had six downfield catches. We're not talking about 50-yard bombs, but making plays, giving you 15, 20 yards. And that matters in this offense.

Starting point is 00:25:57 Now, the question for me, will we see the same type of Kashan booty when a team decides to play more man coverage? because the Raiders played almost zero man coverage on Sunday. And so, you know, with more man coverage, does Booty have a little bit tougher of a time separating and making those plays? But there are two things that Greg Bedard brought up about Booty's game on Sunday, which should make you feel at least somewhat good about his ability to make plays against man coverage. And that was the fact that Badard thought Booty's, you know, route running was quote unquote great.

Starting point is 00:26:40 And also, Bedard noted at BSJ that booty played with real strength. So if you want to play man to man and you want to kind of press the receiver, can the receiver get through that jam? Can the receiver also play strong at the top of the route? And that's what you saw from booty on Sunday. So if he continues to bring great route running and real play strength, that should help him.

Starting point is 00:27:04 those are both elements that should help him against man coverage. And a really telling part of Booty's performance was that he was trusted and came through in critical moments. We're not just talking about somebody who's making catches on first downs or, you know, second and 40s. We're talking about somebody who, if it's third down, the quarterback, the O.C., they trust Kay Shan Booty to make a play. Alex Barth of 985 pointed out that five of Booty's six catches went for first downs. And the sixth catch came up just a yard short on a second and 15. And when you start to look at the skill position players that May gets to work with, I would say it's pretty clear he trusts two guys,

Starting point is 00:27:57 two guys that he is willing to do whatever and trusts with every fiber of his being. That's Hunter Henry and Booty. So those two guys right now, I would consider them made men for Drake May. Henry and Booty made men. The question is, will Stefan Diggs become a made man? We saw that one big third down conversion against the Raiders as a big play. Do we see more of that as Diggs rounds into shape? Does Trabian Henderson get there sooner rather than later?

Starting point is 00:28:31 because if you've got digs and booty as your receivers and you've got Henry at the tight end and you got Henderson coming in playing running back, if you have tight end wide receiver and running back with at least one guy who the quarterback trusts, that's big. And that should make the offense better. And it gives May some options. And you want to talk about options, it would be significant for this offense if Kayshon Booty and Kyle Williams proved to be legitimate NFL-wide receivers. It feels like Booty is going to get there if he keeps going on this trajectory.

Starting point is 00:29:11 If you get that out of Williams, now you've got at least your future number two receiver or number three receiver. And yes, Williams can play the boundary, but Williams has versatility to his game because he also brings yak. So if you get out of 2025 feeling like we've got the number two guy and number three guy, We've got them solid. We've got Williams and we've got Booty. We feel good about that. Let's just go get that alpha because both Booty and Williams can play the X. But they also have that versatility.

Starting point is 00:29:43 Maybe you go out and get that alpha. I don't know, maybe like an A.J. Brown. And now you're cooking. That would be significant if Williams and Barmore prove themselves to be at least number two and number three receivers respectively. All right. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown, Patriots, thank you for making us your first listen and for being an every dare.

Starting point is 00:30:04 Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio and don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button. That helps us a lot. If you're still watching, hit that like button, the thumbs up. And don't forget to subscribe. Let's continue to push these other lockdown shows. Patriots fan base, show up big time, subscribe to this channel. And thank you for making Lockdown Patriots your first listen today. And the NFL season, it's finally here. So for your second listen, get a double. dose of the Lockdown NFL podcast, Tyler Rowland and Tony Wiggins got you over there, find Lockdown NFL on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. Have a great day. And coming up

Starting point is 00:30:43 tomorrow, we will have the crossover. We'll talk Dolphins Patriots coming up tomorrow. To then be well.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Christian Gonzalez’s Return Imminent? | Did Josh McDaniels Overhaul Offense?

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