Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Collision: Crosby vs Patriots' O-Line - Who Will Dominate the Trenches?

Starting point is 00:00:00 No more OTAs, no more mini-camp, no more joint practices. That's right. It is time. Let's take a deep dive and a Pats Raiders. It's week one. And this is Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcasts network, your team every day. What's happening?

Starting point is 00:00:28 I am Nick Cattels. and raised in New England. I've been covering the Patriots for the last 16 years. I'm also co-hosted the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattels and a sports talk show host veteran. On today's episode, we'll take a look into how the Pats will look to a race the Raiders' top offensive weapon. And we'll give you a warning about one matchup that nobody's talking about. But first, the May and McDaniels era begins on Sunday. We appreciate you joining the show, making us your first listen.

Starting point is 00:00:58 and for being an everydayer, the Lockdown Patriots podcast is a proud part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. And the Patriots offense, I believe we'll have opportunities on Sunday against this Vegas defense. Vegas, much like the Patriots, they've gone over a bunch of changes. And many of them defensively, and many would argue that they've downgraded in multiple spots. Let's start with the defensive backfield. Nate Hobbs gone. Jacorian Bennett, gone.

Starting point is 00:01:26 Trevon Morrig, gone. In is Eric Stokes, former first round pick, has never fulfilled the potential. Darian Porter, young guy, didn't have a good preseason. Jeremy Chin, who played for Washington last year, is now in the defensive backfield for Vegas, and he's been playing nickel back in the preseason, which is certainly an interesting development. And linebacker, the Raiders lost Robert Spillane for the Patriots. They have a Landon Roberts, Germain Pratt.

Starting point is 00:01:53 They're even trying to transition Jamal Adams. from safety to linebacker. So many, many changes on this defense for the Raiders, and I don't think for the better. But the first question we have to ask and answer is what is Vegas' scheme? Patrick Graham remains as the defensive coordinator from the prior coaching staff, but Pete Carroll comes in as a defensive coach. And their systems don't necessarily align perfectly,

Starting point is 00:02:23 and you wonder, what will we see? Will we see more of Graham's defense, more of Carroll's defense, 50-50, mix and match? I will tell you that Patrick Graham loves getting pressure on the quarterback. The Raiders last year had the 11th highest blitz rate in the NFL. They blitzed over 26% of the time. They were 10th in the NFL in pass rush win rate. Evan Lazare at Patriots.com recently wrote about Graham's defense. Historically, they've played a good amount of man coverage.

Starting point is 00:02:54 Last season, as a matter of fact, Vegas led the league by playing cover zero on 10% of their defensive snaps. They ranked sixth in simulated pressure rate. Graham successfully generated pressure with scheme, tying for fifth and unblocked pressure rate last season. And when we think about this camp, we think about this preseason, we have to think about the young offensive linemen for the Patriots, getting confused, and allowing free rushers. and when you think about that to go along with Graham's defense tying for fifth in unblocked pressure last year you could have some concern now simulated pressure if you're wondering that's when you threaten with five or more blitzers but you only send four and Graham will do that a decent amount so if you're looking at Patrick Graham's defense

Starting point is 00:03:43 Drake May has to be ready he's got to be ready for that pressure he's got to be ready for the simulated pressure he has to understand what the defense is. defense is trying to do before the snap. You also have to have very good communication along the offensive line, especially on the left side, blocking May's blind side when you've got Will Campbell and Jared Wilson. They have to communicate stunts, twists, simulated pressures, all the games that the Raiders are going to play. They have to communicate well. Meanwhile, Pete Carroll's scheme, what's that all about? Well, if you look at Pete Carroll's history, Evan Lazzar writes, Carol's roots as a defensive mind are in the Seattle 3 system.

Starting point is 00:04:27 Four-man fronts, cover three structures behind that base defense. And in the preseason, the Raiders played a league high, 57.9 percent of their coverage snaps in cover 3. Now, if you look back to the history, Josh McDaniels has done a very good job against the Seattle 3 concepts. it's been a significant mismatch for McDaniels and Patriots and McDaniels and the Raiders. He's been able to do many things against the Pete Carroll, Seattle 3. Now, interestingly enough, McDaniels did tell the media on Thursday that Pete Carroll doesn't live by the Seattle 3 as much as he used to. So what scheme are we going to see?

Starting point is 00:05:09 We have to watch it unfold on Sunday, but I would anticipate a blend of Graham and Carol. All right. Second part of this, Patriots offense against the Raiders defense. Let's talk about Max Crosby. You cannot allow Max Crosby to dominate this football game. That happened way too often in 24. You would look at the best defensive player. You would go into that week and you would say you can't allow that pass rusher, that defensive lineman, to dominate the game. But somehow, some way, Alex Van Pelt allowed it to happen way too many times. Max Crosher. Max Crosher, Crosby is as good as they get. Last year, he was ninth in pass rush win rate, and he's not just a pass rusher.

Starting point is 00:05:52 He's also really good against the run. How good? Crosby was second in the entire NFL, an edge run-stop win rate. Second, he led the team in sacks, tackles for loss, quarterback hits, and he missed five games. He missed five games. He leads the NFL with 105 tackles for loss since 8. entering the league in 2019. He also ranks top five in the NFL in sacks and quarterback hits since 2019.

Starting point is 00:06:22 Now, don't get it twisted. Crosby's not a guy that's going to be playing against Will Campbell all day. He actually lines up the majority of the time against the right tackle. So this is going to be a Morgan Moses challenge for the most part. And I anticipate McDaniels helping Moses. I anticipate McDaniels trying to drive Crosby crazy by giving him different looks. I think the Patriots will chip him. I think the Patriots will double team him.

Starting point is 00:06:50 I think the Patriots will call plenty of quick throws to get the football out of the hands of Drake May as fast as humanly possible. Don't invite that pass rush. And I also think that you'll see plenty of play action. Kind of a staple of McDaniels, right? And you'll see that play action against the aggressiveness of Max Crosby

Starting point is 00:07:13 and some of that Raiders defensive line. The other part of this offense that I think will cause some, frankly, damage against the Raiders is the running backs. Heavy running back usage. I would be ready for the running backs to be involved a significant amount against this Raiders defense. Now, I know they've got some different players, and I know that Carroll's in town now,

Starting point is 00:07:42 but look back last year the Raiders second most mistackles in the NFL 134 they were 16th and yards per carry given up at 4.4 they were 18th in defensive rushing DVOA so they were middle of the pack against the run and I would just have to guess

Starting point is 00:08:02 that Josh McDaniels and Mike Vrable who already love running the football want to establish running the football and establish that tone I only have to guess that they're going to run the football against this Raiders defense, or at least try to. And if you can get some early down success,

Starting point is 00:08:19 you get that ball rolling, you put Drake May in advantageous positions, third and short, third and medium, that's when you can start going to work. And part of that work is not only the running backs running the football, but I also think it's the running backs catching the football. We've talked about all three backs. Stevenson has caught the football.

Starting point is 00:08:42 a lot during his career. You go back a couple years ago, you know, he had 65, 70 catches. Antonio Gibson, former wide receiver in college, and we all know about Trayvion Henderson and what he brings to the table as a past catching running back. So McDaniels, I would anticipate, is going to attack the linebackers and the safeties.

Starting point is 00:09:01 He's going to attack Jeremy Chin if he's playing nickelback with those running backs. He wants to make their life miserable. And McDaniels against a Carroll-style defense, Evan Lazzar had some of these numbers. Back in 2022 with the Raiders, their running backs against Seattle, they had nine catches for 113 yards in a touchdown.

Starting point is 00:09:21 You can also look at some other notable running back performances, according to Lizarre, against Carroll-style defenses in Super Bowls. James White, 14 catches, 110 yards in a touchdown in Super Bowl 51. Shane Vareen 11 catches, 64 yards in Super Bowl 49. White also hurt Gus Bradley's. defense. Bradley, of course, from the Carroll Tree. And you look at what White did in the 2018 division around 15 catches 97 yards, running backs, running backs, running backs, and sprinkle in some tight end action down the seam. That's what I think we'll see on Sunday. And the Patriots

Starting point is 00:10:02 will have that opportunity to move the football. They'll have the opportunity to score some points against this Raiders defense. All right, let's talk about the Patriots defense with or without Christian Gonzalez, Vegas will test, we'll test the Patriots. We'll tell you how next will we continue with today's episode of Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. This episode is brought to by Prize Picks, the Daily Fantasy app where making the right call can actually pay off. You and I make decisions every day, but on prize picks, being right means cashing in.

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Starting point is 00:12:30 against the Raiders defense, I think the Raiders' offense will also present some challenges for the Pats D. And Christian Gonzalez, again, did not practice on Thursday. I would imagine he is not going to play in this game. So your best player, your best defensive player is going to be out. I would have to imagine. Like 99% confident.

Starting point is 00:12:49 Maybe it has already come out by the time you watch or listen to this episode. So do not expect Christian Gonzalez out there. But let's go over three defensive keys. And you have to start with Brock Bowers. Bowers is by far the best Raiders offensive player. He is to the offense. What Crosby is to the defense. He is a move tight end.

Starting point is 00:13:08 and that means he's all over the place. Mike Grable spoke to W.E.E.I. earlier this week, and he said, quote, you have to treat Bowers as a wide receiver. Know where he is, find him, and figure out what they're trying to do by the different locations they line him up in, unquote. Taylor Kyle's posted about Brock Bowers this week. Bowers brings alignment versatility, he wrote, a wide receiver's change of direction and ball skills, and dangerous off schedule and yak ability. now of course we know throughout this camp throughout the joint practices throughout the preseason games

Starting point is 00:13:42 the patriots have had some major issues defending tight ends now maybe they weren't so worried about it because they were working on things and maybe things will change when the season begins but from what we have seen red heard they've had problems with tight ends and now you start the season against one of the best tight ends in football so how will the patriots defend bowers Are they going to defend him by committee, throw a bunch of different guys at him? I mean, the Patriots had Marcus Jones defending T.J. Hawkinson during the second Vikings joint practice, and that went horribly wrong. I can't imagine they're going to try to do the same on Sunday, but maybe I'm wrong. Will it be a committee?

Starting point is 00:14:24 Will it be, you know, Hawkins and Woodson and Jones and Davis and Austin and anybody out there that can play? Are you going to try to get physical with Bowers at the line of screen? from time to time with a linebacker. That's a dangerous game to play. So will it be committee versus Bowers? Will it be double teaming Bowers? I wouldn't be shocked if they threw some doubles at him, especially on third down. They could also just say, we're going to line Carlton Davis opposite of him, and we're

Starting point is 00:14:51 going to roll with Carlton Davis. And if that hurts us through the first couple of drives, we'll adjust if we have to. You could put Davis on Bowers. You could put Alex Austin on Jacoby Myers, Marcus Jones in the slot. and handle it that way. Now, Terrell Williams brought up a very interesting point during his media session on Thursday. He talked about Bowers and said, look, this guy is a tight end. He's a tight end.

Starting point is 00:15:18 He's a wide receiver, but he has a tight end body. So if you put a cornerback opposite of him, the Raiders are going to run the football, and they're going to run at the cornerbacks, and they're going to try to make the cornerbacks life miserable. So that's something you have to keep in the back of your mind. As we get ready for Sunday, it's just not as easy as plopping at a corner against Bowers and saying the job is done, we're good here. Moving on from Bowers, of course you've got Jacoby Myers, but I want to focus on Ashton Genty because I do think you're going to see some high usage from Genty this year.

Starting point is 00:15:51 You go back to last season. The Raiders were the best team when it came to having a terrible run game. Like if you look at what they did in 2024, 22nd and run block win rate, 30 second in yards per attempt, 30 second and yards per game, 31st in rushing DVOA. So what did the Raiders do after being miserable running the football in 2024? They got on the phone and they hired Chip Kelly. They brought Chip Kelly in and they drafted Ashton Genty with their top pick in the first round. Now, Chip Kelly, you think about his dynamic offense, you know, the fast, speedy kind of play.

Starting point is 00:16:32 That's the Chip Kelly of old. Kelly now kind of calls old school football. And what I mean by that is Evan Lazzar wrote, you know, Ohio State last year, Chip Kelly was the OC at Ohio State. And Lazzar wrote about the Buckeyes offense. They were in the bottom half of the FBS in plays per game. They ran more under-center concepts,

Starting point is 00:16:53 and they actually incorporated more gap runs under Chip Kelly. And as Lizar points out, those adaptations suggest that Kelly's system is more pro-ready, than it was the first time around. So Chip Kelly, his offense is based off the run game. They're going to try to establish it with Ashton Genty. And they're not going to go super quick like back in the day. They're going to try to grind you out a little bit in that run game.

Starting point is 00:17:21 So what do the Patriots have to do? Well, Captain Obvious just walked into the room and he says they need push from their defensive line. And Captain Obvious is right. They do need that push from the defensive line. They need to win in the trenches. and Mike Vrable's been talking about that since he got the head coach job. So, yes, they need that push from the defensive line. The question is, can Milton Williams provide that push consistently?

Starting point is 00:17:46 He played less than 50% of the snaps for Philadelphia last year because of his run defense. They were not comfortable having them out there more playing against the run. Christian Barmore has been managed all camp long. So how much is he going to play? and is he going to be able to consistently win in push? I wouldn't be surprised if we see more Kyrie's Tonga than you might think. Tonga was brought in to be that interior defensive lineman, kind of stout against the run.

Starting point is 00:18:16 He has been much better when it comes to rushing the passer than I think the Patriots ever thought he would be when they signed him. But I would not be surprised at all if Tonga gets more time than you might think. And the thing the Patriots have to watch out for, if you're being aggressive and you're concerned, about the run. You've got to watch out for the screen game. Tight ends, running backs. The Patriots had a miserable time defending the screen game throughout camp. And so that might rear its ugly head from time to time. Ashton Genty was a good receiving running back in 2023 at Boise State, less so in 24. Does he go back to those 2023 vibes? I think he might.

Starting point is 00:18:58 You might see some of that. So screen game, tight ends, running backs. trying to put the linebackers and the safeties in positions that they're uncomfortable. The one thing the Patriots can do to make the Raiders uncomfortable is get that pass rush going. And, you know, during camp, we've discussed this. The Patriots pass rush has looked really good. Harold Landry has that first step back. Kala Von Chase on had a terrific camp. You would hope that Barmore and Williams on the interior get the job done.

Starting point is 00:19:30 We just talked about Tonga being a better pass rusher than I think. this team thought that he was going to be during this camp season. So get some pass rush. Patriots, one of the worst pass rushing defenses in all of football. You could argue they were the worst pass rushing defense in football last season. Vegas has a pretty good offensive line, not great, spectacular, but pretty good. They're going to have to get some pressure. Gino Smith is not the same quarterback, and this could be said for every quarterback,

Starting point is 00:19:59 but he is certainly not the same quarterback when you have some pressure on him. From a clean pocket, Evan Lazzar points out, you know, he's been one of the better passers in the league from clean pockets in recent seasons. And he absolutely tore up the Patriots last year. They gave him clean pockets and he ripped them up. Had the fourth best passerating and fourth best QBR of his season against the Patriots in 2024, threw for over 300 yards and completed 75% of his passes. You certainly don't want that on Sunday. man there's so much to talk about with this game we still have to get to will campbell and we also have to get to the one matchup that could create chaos that nobody's talking about all that next as we continue with today's episode of lockdown patriots part of the lockdown podcast network your team every day

Starting point is 00:20:50 it's almost the weekend time to look back in crown this week's MVP on who delivered powered by door dash just like you can win every saturday with door dash streaks, saving more every time you order these players delivered when it mattered most. Let's break it down. Let's talk about Craig Woodson, who delivered it in a big way in the preseason. Woodson showed great versatility, making Mike Vrable and the coaching staff feel comfortable releasing Gibral Peppers. You could also talk about Trayvion Henderson and how terrific he was during the entire camp and how excited, how excited everybody is about Henderson's rookie season. And just like Craig Woodson and Trayvion Henderson delivered for the team, DoorDash delivers your Saturdays with DoorDash streaks.

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Starting point is 00:22:02 We can't even get into it, really. But Pete Carroll, former Patriot, we all know that. Josh McDaniels, former Raider, Patrick Graham, former Patriot. I mean, we have gone through it over and over. A lot of different players, former Patriots, now Raiders, a lot of different players, former Raiders, now Patriots. It's just a very interesting dynamic when you look at the rosters and the coaching staffs. And of course, we got the Golden Tuck Rule from a long time ago.

Starting point is 00:22:30 but let's get to Will Campbell, because Will Campbell makes his official NFL debut. I know he's been out there for preseason games, but this game matters on Sunday. Finally, a football game that matters. And by the way, speaking of Sunday, we will be going live shortly after the game on Sunday. So you don't want to miss that. We'll have a post game show for you. You do not want to miss that coming up on Sunday. But Will Campbell will debut on Sunday for the Patriots.

Starting point is 00:22:55 And as we mentioned earlier, he's not going to see Max Crosby. at least I would not expect him to see Crosby a bunch. Crosby will move from time to time, but the majority is against the right tackle. So the challenge for Campbell will be Malcolm Coons and Tyree Wilson. And Coontz is returning from an ACL tear and surgery. He tore his ACL in August of 2024. Back in 2023, he had eight sacks and 23 pressures.

Starting point is 00:23:21 He was a name that was brought up during the Patriots offseason as a possible fit for the Pats. Pat signed Chase on instead of Coons. You also have Tyree Wilson, who took a step forward last year, 37 pressures, the second most on the team, four and a half sacks, a 10% win rate, and six tackles for loss. So Will Campbell, pretty decent challenge week one, Malcolm Coontz, Tyree Wilson. I think those guys will rotate against the rookie. I want to get to a matchup that I feel could create chaos for the Patriots Offensive line that I don't think enough people are talking about. And that's old friend Adam Butler.

Starting point is 00:23:57 I just mentioned former Patriots who are now Raiders and former Raiders who are now Patriots. Butler is one of those guys. Former Patriot, now Raider. And in 2024, he was effective. Interior defensive lineman, he was 16th in the NFL and pass rush win rate. He was also sixth. He was sixth overall. An interior defensive lineman run, stop, win rate.

Starting point is 00:24:22 So he was good against the pass, getting pressure, and he was. really freaking good against the run. And we have to get ready for Garrett Bradbury. Garrett Bradbury, Jared Wilson, your rookie left guard, your center who had issues against the pass rush last year for Minnesota. I would say had a mostly down camp. And this is a good challenge for him right out of the gates. And you certainly don't want that pressure up the gut against Drake May. So I want to pay special attention to Adam Butler. Garrett Bradbury, Jared Wilson. Can Wilson and Campbell and Bradbury, the biggest questions I would think on this offensive line, could they all do the job on Sunday?

Starting point is 00:25:09 Campbell against Coons and Wilson. And then you've got Wilson and Bradbury against Adam Butler and company. Another question I have, Stefan Diggs, how much is he going to play? How many snaps will he get? now it was interesting when drake may spoke to the media on wednesday he said that he had noticed stephan digs elevating with a game approaching and you wonder if there was a little bit of a rope adope from stephan digs during this camp and you know he's he's just kind of balancing it out understanding i don't have to go a hundred miles an hour throughout the entire camp i've been in the NFL for a long time and i understand you get off to a good start There's that kind of middle that you just deal with. And then as you get closer to the games that count, you start to ramp up. And from the sounds of it, Drake May wants us to believe that Diggs has started to ramp up getting ready for week one.

Starting point is 00:26:10 Now, what does that mean? How many snaps will he play? He was asked. Diggs was asked, are you expecting to be on a pitch count? And he said, heck no. Now he laughed. He laughed it off. But he said, I don't know.

Starting point is 00:26:22 I don't make the rules. We'll see how it goes, but I really hope not. When it comes to Diggs, my advice to everybody is just temper expectations. I know there was talk early in Camp about, hey, you know, he could catch 80 passes, 90 passes. He could catch 100 passes. I am going to try to handle Diggs with the most reasonable expectations that I can handle him with. ACL surgery is legit. He's in his 30s.

Starting point is 00:26:52 I think the fact that he's playing on Sunday is already a win for the Patriots. How many of us thought Diggs would be out there week one? Now, if you go back a month, month and a half ago, of course, we started to feel better about that. But when he signed, when Diggs signed in March, I don't think anybody expected him to be ready for week one. And being a part of this offense, if not a big part of this offense. So I'm tempering my expectations. I want to see how many snaps he gets on Sunday. I want to see how those snaps gradually improve, which I think will happen.

Starting point is 00:27:28 He'll gradually get more and more snaps throughout the first month. And then you get to week six, week seven. And that's when I feel a little bit more confident that Diggs will be closer to what Diggs was last year with Houston if he's going to have that opportunity. So temper the expectations. The fact he's out there on Sunday is a win. anything he does for you is a win. Now, the other wide receivers, it's interesting, what's their usage? I mean, is Pop Douglas going to play as much if the Patriots try to get the run game going?

Starting point is 00:27:59 Do they trust him in his size in the run game? They might not. Matt Collins, Kishon Booty, that battle for the third guy. Do they split 50-50? We'll see. Kyle Williams, does he get any snaps on Sunday? I would have to think he gets some. By the way, I do think Pop Douglas could have a good,

Starting point is 00:28:18 game on Sunday and be very effective, especially against Jeremy Chin, especially against some of their other safeties. And if they can get him lined up against some linebackers, if McDaniels play some games, I think Pop could have a good, if not very good day on Sunday. Another question, we're going to ask this every week until he proves that he can. Can Drake may take care of the football? Now, one turnover you can live with, you don't want it. But if we're talking two, three turnovers, that's a problem.

Starting point is 00:28:48 May has to take care of the football. Something else to keep an eye on. Q Myers, my buddy during the crossover, the last episode, he mentioned that Gino Smith and this Raiders offense, they're going to try to stretch the field. They want to attack defenses downfield. The Raiders' offense has not done that the last few years. They're going to try to do that this year,

Starting point is 00:29:09 which of course means Jalen Hawkins and Craig Woodson. They have to be responsible on the back end. GTFB, don't get beat. Don't be surprised if we see a decent amount, if not a lot of two tight-end sets from Josh McDaniels, especially against this defense. I'm interested, as I said earlier, how much will Milton Williams play? How much will Christian Barmore play? And week one is big.

Starting point is 00:29:33 Week one is big when it comes to effort and finish, which is something that Mike Vrable has preached from day one. As a matter of fact, Vrable had his practice script, include a break followed by two team periods to highlight the importance of winning the second half of the game on Sunday. In Vrable previously told the media that 12 of the 16 week one winners from last year won the second half of their games. So effort through all four quarters, finish strong. I got the Patriots winning, 27, 23.

Starting point is 00:30:09 I think they get the job done. Tight game, tough game. Don't really know what to expect because it's game number one. but I got the pass again 2723 that wraps up this edition of lockdown patriots thank you for making us your first listened and for being an everydayer reach out to me on twitter will you at nick c radio and don't forget to throw a comment in on the youtube channel that helps us with the algorithm hit that like button and subscribe thank you for making lockdown patriots your first listen today for your second listen check out the lockdown NFL season previews on lockdown NFL be the most

Starting point is 00:30:41 informed NFL fan find the link in the description to the lockdown NFL playlist on YouTube, part of the lockdown podcast network, your team every day. And I will see you on Sunday after the game.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Collision: Crosby vs Patriots' O-Line - Who Will Dominate the Trenches?

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