Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Conquer: Drake Maye Faces Texans’ Defensive Beasts—Will Patriots Succeed?

Starting point is 00:00:00 One win away from the AFC championship game next weekend, and we expect a tight, hard-fought game. It's time to dive deep into Texans' paths. This is Locked-on Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattos, born and raised in New England.

Starting point is 00:00:31 Been covering the paths for the past 16 years. also the co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattels and a sports radio veteran. Welcome to Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. And don't forget Sunday following Texans Patriots, we will go live on YouTube with lockdown Patriots. So join us on Sunday. But on today's show in the third segment, we'll tell you why a rookie not named Will Campbell, not named Jared Wilson, not named Jared Wilson, not named.

Starting point is 00:01:03 Trayvion Henderson will be pivotal on Sunday. And the second segment will break down why we're confident the big dogs will once again show up. But first, Drake May versus this Texans defense will not be a picnic for the Pats QB1. Today's episode is brought to you by GameTime. Download the GameTime at Create an account. Use code Lockdown NFL for $20 off your first purchase. The Houston Texans on Sunday will be the best defense that Drake May has ever.

Starting point is 00:01:33 ever faced at any level. This is the best defense that he has faced certainly in the NFL. The Texans defense is better than the Chargers defense. They're better analytically. They are better statistically. They have better talent. The Texans play fast. They play physical. But there is a big difference between the Chargers defense and the Texans defense. The Chargers defense, you looked at disguising. You looked at pre-snap, versus post-snap. The defensive coordinator, Jesse Minter, playing lots of games. The Texans defense, the picture is the picture. What Drake May sees is what Drake May is mostly going to get. The Texans are not very exotic defensively. They don't do much disguising at all. They don't blitz.

Starting point is 00:02:25 The Texans are 28th in blitz rate in the NFL. They don't stunt often. They don't utilize simulated pressure often. what Houston does is they bank on their front four. They say we've got a ton of talent up front defensively, and we're just going to let those guys eat. Will Anderson Jr., win your one-on-one. Daniel Hunter, win your one-on-on-one. To go along with DeNico Autry and Sheldon Rankins on the interior of that defensive line,

Starting point is 00:02:54 Houston's not worried about playing games and pulling tricks. They just want to go right after you. They say we have the talent. we are going to execute at a high level. So we are going to beat you down. And it's worked all year long. Robert Mays posted on Twitter that the Houston defense has not allowed a positive drop-back EPA in a game since week two.

Starting point is 00:03:19 Week two. The Texans have played eight games versus playoff teams in the regular season. And they allowed fewer than 20 points in six of them. And then they followed that up against a playoff team. with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night. There are just tons of great numbers across the board when you discuss this Texan's defense. We covered many of those numbers on Wednesday's podcast

Starting point is 00:03:45 when we gave you a little bit of background. So what does the Patriots offense do against this Texans defense? Let's start with Drake May because I do think Drake May and this Patriots passing offense will have the ability to create some opportunities. We'll watch that Pittsburgh Houston game from Monday night. we'll sit there and say, man, what is the weakness of this Texans defense? But we also have to appreciate the fact that the Steelers' offense isn't very good. Aaron Rogers is 42.

Starting point is 00:04:12 He doesn't move around as much as he used to. D.K. Metcalf is their best receiver. And Rogers decided to not throw the football to him after the first quarter for most of that game. The Pittsburgh run attack has been up and down. So comparing that Pittsburgh offense to the Patriots offense is a big time reach. And when you look at Drake May and Aaron Rogers, they're different quarterbacks. Let's start with the mobility. Drake May's mobility will make a difference on Sunday.

Starting point is 00:04:42 The Texans tend to spy the quarterback. They did that against Josh Allen. They did that against Justin Herbert. I would expect them to have a spy on Drake May. Evan Lazar pointed out, though, that Houston is 31st in the league in EPA allowed and yards per scramble. So running quarterbacks, scrambling situations, the Texans have had a terrible time defending that. Even with the spy, they've had a very difficult time.

Starting point is 00:05:12 And we know what Drake May did against the Chargers last weekend with his legs. I would also expect Josh McDaniels to move the pocket, bootlegs, designed runs. I would just anticipate them trying to make Drake May a moving target in the pocket. of having him stand there like a statue. Houston's violent. Houston is violent. So when Drake May runs, and it's not if, it's when, because he's going to run multiple times on Sunday.

Starting point is 00:05:41 When he runs, he has to get down. Slide, get out of bounds, do whatever you've got to do. Even Drake May himself during the media session this week said that the linebackers of the Texans take your head off. Head on a swivel, protect yourself. Now, one big question I have is, how much will the Texans play man coverage. They are a heavily zone-based defense.

Starting point is 00:06:05 And watching the film against the Chargers, they have to understand that when the Chargers were in zone, Drake May ate them up alive. I mean, he just absolutely dominated the Chargers defense when they were in zone. So you look at what the Texans can do, right? I mean, they have all the talent in the world to play man coverage if they want to. They haven't done a ton of it right around. the middle of the pack in the NFL, but they have a ton of talent if they want to actually say, you know what, we're going to play a man. We're going to play a man, Drake, and you try

Starting point is 00:06:39 to figure it out because we've got Derek Stingley and we've got Kamari Lasseter and we've got Jalen Petrie. We've got those three cornerbacks that can make your life miserable. So we're going to play more man coverage than you would have anticipated. Because usually, again, Houston doesn't shadow wide receivers with those guys. Jalen Petrie does have four interceptions. He's a Ball Hawk. Drake May against L.A.'s man coverage, he wasn't good. One for seven, seven yards, three sacks, two fumbles. So I wonder how much, how much will the Texans play man coverage? Now, Derek Stingley lines up on the left side. Per Taylor Kyle's, this is interesting. Derek Stingley actually has not been very good in man coverage this year. Fifth highest completion

Starting point is 00:07:25 percentage allowed. Second most yards per reception allowed. Tide for the most 20 plus yard receptions allowed. Forced incompletion percentage. Tied for the eighth lowest. As a matter of fact, Derek Stingley in man coverage, third lowest in zone coverage at 44.9, but that goes up to 109.7 in man coverage.

Starting point is 00:07:49 So will the Texans mess around and play man coverage? Drake May against L.A. Another thing we got to talk about. The explosive plays. Houston is 14th in explosive play rate. And the Texans defensive backs are very aggressive. They're heavily penalized. I would take a couple of shots on Sunday.

Starting point is 00:08:10 Another guy who's huge is Ramandre Stevenson. Remandre Stevenson is going to be absolutely gigantic in this game on Sunday. You have to counter the pass rush. You've got to try to land those body punches on that defensive line. Wear them down. Get ahead of the chains. So you have third and short. I do think the Patriots will have at least some opportunities to run against this Texans defense.

Starting point is 00:08:34 Now, the last four regular season games, the Texans only gave up three runs of 10 yards or more. Chad Graff, however, of the athletic points out that Ramandre Stevenson, the first 13 weeks of the season, was 51st in yards after contact. Since that point, he's been number one in the NFL. He's also been number one in success rate running the football. And when you look at the run game of the Patriots and going with those six offensive linemen looks, they only did that four or five times against L.A., which surprised me. One of those six offensive linemen looks, which was really a three tight end look, resulted in Hunter Henry's touchdown. But Evan Lazzar points out that Houston, their defense against six offensive linemen,

Starting point is 00:09:17 21st in past EPA. The play action could be successful. So you run the football a little bit, you put out the six offensive linemen, you give the look of the run and then you attack the Texans past defense. The Texans have been vulnerable. Another part of Ramandre Stevenson's game that I think will pay dividends is his receiving skills. The Texans, according to Evan Lazare are 30th in the NFL against the screen game. They've given up a league high nine explosive plays on screens.

Starting point is 00:09:48 And it's not just Ramandre Stevenson, Travion Henderson. You can bust out a couple screens out of the back pocket for him. you can also throw some tight end screens, which should absolutely work. The final thing I'll say about this Patriots offense against this Texans defense, and this is obvious, but the offensive line can't be a sieve. Turnovers in this game would be deadly. Will Campbell, Morgan Moses against Will Anderson Jr., and DeNeil Hunter, they have to be really good on Sunday.

Starting point is 00:10:17 But the pass rush metrics, interestingly enough, aren't great for Houston. I mean, they have very good pass rushers. Daniel Hunter, Will Anderson, Jr. combined for 27 sacks. But when you look at the Houston Texans' defensive metrics in the pass rush, their 21st in pass rush win rate, their 18th in pressure rate, and they're 21st in time to pressure. So, you know, Drake May was second in EPA per dropback with a clean pocket, second in EPA per dropback one pressured.

Starting point is 00:10:50 So there's going to be some opportunity. But Drake May has to be decisive. He can't sit there for too long like he did against the Chargers because he will get destroyed. But there will be opportunities for this Patriots offense. All right. Zach Corr should have another great day as the Pat's defensive play caller. Find out why next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

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Starting point is 00:14:02 And you don't forget to subscribe. I appreciate every single one of you. Texans, bad, bad news here for them is that their offense is very likely, very likely going to be without Nico Collins. Nico Collins did not practice on Wednesday. He did not practice on Thursday. He is in the concussion protocol. It is incredibly difficult to pass the concussion protocol and

Starting point is 00:14:25 six days, which is what he would have to do. So it looks like the Texans will be without their number one wide receiver, and I think their most talented offensive player. The good news for the Patriots, both Christian Gonzalez and Kyrie's Tonga were full participants in Thursday's practice. Christian Gonzalez seemingly has passed the concussion protocol. And I'm telling you, I am not afraid of Houston's offense. And I don't think the Patriots defense is going to be afraid of the.

Starting point is 00:14:55 the Texans offense. These numbers are with Nico Collins playing 15 games. The Texans were 13th in scoring, but the defense has a lot to do with that. Evan Lazar would tell you that the Texans had the third best starting field position in the NFL this year as an offense, short fields. But when you look at the overall numbers, the Texans offense is 22nd in EPA. They're 17th in passing EPA. They're 21st in points per drive. So they're just not a very exceptional. explosive dynamic, awesome offense. The thing that you got to pay attention to is C.J. Stroud. And if you watched C.J. Stroud against the Steelers on Monday night, you saw an atrocious

Starting point is 00:15:38 quarterback. He had a terrible outing. I'm not telling you that he is a terrible quarterback, but he was a terrible quarterback on Monday night against the Steelers. The Texans will move the pocket with bootlegs. Nick Cayley, the offensive coordinator, yes, spent time with the Patriots, a long time with the Patriots. but also spent some time with the Rams. You'll see some of that RAM stuff with the bootlegs from the quarterback. And I do wonder how aggressive will Zach Corp be on Sunday? How aggressive will he be?

Starting point is 00:16:07 C.J. Shroud is a different quarterback when he is dealing with pressure. He is 27th in the NFL in passerating against pressure. Now, he's a little better against the Blitz. He's 18th in passerating. against the blitz. Stroud, when you look at his ability to deal from a clean pocket, and Zach Corr even said this on Thursday, given a clean pocket,

Starting point is 00:16:36 he's very, very dangerous. He is 10th impasseurating when the pocket is clean. So clean pocket, 10th in passerating, pressure 27th in passerating. He also has had a tough time against cover zero. And Justin Herbert last week against this Patriots defense, against cover zero was one for four, yards in a pass rating of under 40.

Starting point is 00:17:00 Evan Lizarre points out that out of 29 qualified quarterbacks versus cover zero, C.J. Stroud is 28th in EPA per dropback and success rate. So how aggressive will you be? Greg Bedard points out that disguised coverages and zones can confuse C.J. Stroud, if you're wondering, is a very good against man coverage. So I think it's finding the balance. Selective blitzes, selective cover zeros, mixing your man coverage with your zone coverage, messing around pre-snap, post-snap. I think if you do all of those things combined, C.J. Stroud is going to have a very difficult day on Sunday, especially without Nico Collins. Second big point here, aside from how you defend C.J. Stroud for the Patriots defense is, will the big dogs show up again?

Starting point is 00:17:51 They certainly showed up last weekend. But Caleb-on-Chayson, Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, they should be able to make an impact in this game. I think they should be able to make a significant impact in this game. The Texans' offensive line is not as bad as the Chargers' offensive line, but the Texans' offensive line is not good. They were 30th in past block win rate. They were 22nd in Pro Football focuses past block grade.

Starting point is 00:18:19 They were 32nd in run block. win rate, they're 24th in time to pressure. This offensive line is not very good. Rookie Ariante Ursary at left tackle. I said this during the crossover. Caleb-on-Chayson versus Ariante Ursery is one of my marquee matchups. I think Caleban Chase-on can beat Ariante Ursary at least a couple of times on Sunday. Left guard, Titus Howard, he had a couple of penalties against the Steelers. Old friend Jake Andrews at center. I just have to favor Milton Williams and Christian Barmore against that interior offensive line of Titus Howard,

Starting point is 00:18:59 Jake Andrews, and right guard, Ed Ingram. And right tackle Trent Brown. We know all about him. When he's motivated, he could be really good. And he's been pretty good. But I think looking at Ariante Ursary and Jake Andrews, I think there are some holes on that offensive line or some inexperience on that offensive line

Starting point is 00:19:18 that the Patriots' defensive line can take advantage of. I'm also not afraid of the receivers, especially given the fact that Nico Collins is very unlikely to play. The Texans will roll out Christian Kirk and Jaden Higgins and Jalen Knoll and Xavier Hutchinson. But I like Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis, and Marcus Jones against any of those guys. I like Marcus Jones against Christian Kirk. I think Marcus Jones can win that matchup. So I'm not really afraid of the receivers. Now, the Houston Texans, if they want to succeed offensively in this game, they're going to have to run the football.

Starting point is 00:19:58 And they have been a bottom four run offense throughout this regular season. And they have especially struggled in short yardage. They are not a very good running football team. Now, you might be surprised by that because against Pittsburgh, they did run the ball, 164 rushing yards. But that is the anomaly. This offense has not been able to consistently run the ball. One thing to look at, the reason why they were successful against the Steelers was running in their man concepts, which really got production going.

Starting point is 00:20:30 And the Texans ended up being 10 for 15 on third down against the Steelers. 61% of their carries against the Steelers, according to pro football focus, was man concepts. And they average almost five yards per carry. The Patriots, pro football focus points out, have been far less against man running. runs, ranking 27th in the league, giving up almost five yards per carry. And the Texans will also roll out big personnel and try to beat you up in the run game. But I think the Patriots with Milton Williams and Robert Spillane, Kyrie's Tonga, looks like he will be back on Sunday with those three guys out there.

Starting point is 00:21:09 This run defense is different. And I think they will be able to at least slow down the Texans run game. 100% you want to put this football game on C.J. Stroud in those receivers. Coming up, an old school Josh McDaniels tactic isn't likely to work against Houston, and we make our pick. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. NFL season is in full swing and there's nothing like being at the game. The crowd noise, the energy, and cheering alongside other fans.

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Starting point is 00:23:38 We go live on YouTube following Texans Patriots. Can you believe one win away from the AFC championship game? A couple of other things I wanted to note here before getting to my prediction. a lot of times when you look at this and you say, well, Will Campbell, Morgan Moses, Jared Wilson, especially, you know, Jared Wilson and Will Campbell, Morgan Moses has mostly been excellent. Will Campbell, Jared Wilson, they've got to be good. They've got to be good and pass protection on Sunday, right?

Starting point is 00:24:09 Usually it's a well, what about the quick passing game for the Patriots? They really haven't done that much at all this year. I expected Josh McDaniels to lean on the quick passing game much more than he has. They just really have not done a lot of that compared to what I expected. And Houston makes that difficult as well. And you saw this with the Steelers on Monday night. Aaron Rogers wants to get rid of the football. The Steelers offense is predicated on getting rid of the football quickly.

Starting point is 00:24:36 And with the Texans pass rush, with their fast linebackers on the second level, their cornerbacks are tremendous tackling cornerbacks, especially, you know, when you look at Camari Lasseter, he is. He is fierce, man. He is fierce. And Jaylen Petrie is always around the football. So when you combine the edges with the pass rush, the fast linebackers,

Starting point is 00:25:01 and the cornerback defensive back tackling, it makes it very difficult to produce in the quick passing game. Not to say it's impossible, but I just don't think the Patriots will lean on that, like we've seen in past years with Josh McDaniels going against, you know, really good pass rushes. Second point I want to make here that I haven't gotten to just yet. Craig Woodson.

Starting point is 00:25:21 He has had the ups and downs of a rookie season. I think he's mostly been good the past couple of months, but I did not think he was good against Miami in the last week of the season. I thought he was good, if not very good, against the Chargers last weekend. And I think that Craig Woodson, he plays a huge role in this game on Sunday because given that Nico Collins is unlikely going to play, and the matchups I don't think are very good for the Texans against the Patriots cornerbacks. You look at Dalton Shultz, and Dalton Shultz had a career high of 82 catches for the Texans this season.

Starting point is 00:25:59 And here's something else. 24, 24 of those 82 catches came on third down. And 17 of those 24 catches were first downs, third down conversions. So C.J. Stroud loves to look for Dalton Schultz when he needs to convert on third down. And with Nico Collins likely out, I would just have to imagine that C.J. Stroud is going to be looking towards Dalton Schultz even more on Sunday. And that means Craig Woodson needs to make sure that he is good, at least, good in coverage, if not great. Because if you could limit Dalton Schultz in this passing game, if you could limit him on the, third down, much like Keenan Allen of the Chargers

Starting point is 00:26:48 last weekend on third down, if you can do the job on Dalton Schultz, that will give C.J. Stroud one less option offensively. And he will really be showing that jumpiness in the pocket. And you can even

Starting point is 00:27:04 say panic at times like we saw against the Steelers. Make him feel rattled on the road, loud crowd, offensive line not very good, try to limit the run game. I don't think he's going to be able to throw the football to his receivers throughout the day. Put this on C.J. Stroud and make him start thinking.

Starting point is 00:27:24 Throw some different looks at him defensively. Throw some blitzes at him. Throw some cover zero at him. And I think you could get the best of C.J. Stroud and make him turn the football over, if not once a couple of times. Final note before my prediction, this game on Sunday is why you hired Josh McDaniels, you know, similar to the Chargers, but especially the. this Sunday. Because you're going against the defense that does not really adjust. They don't do too much that, again, is exotic. The picture is the picture. They give you what they do. They do what

Starting point is 00:27:57 they do. And they just say to themselves, we can execute almost the simple at a very high level, and we have the talent to give us the edge. But Josh McDaniels is capable of watching a game unfold in the first half and adjust in the second half. He's capable of, you know, changing things in the fourth quarter to come up with one big play. So the ability of Josh McDaniels to adjust within a game, I think is going to be significant. He's also known to throw some wrinkles at defenses. He's also known to throw some trick plays. He did that last weekend, and that play was wide open, by the way, if it was blocked up

Starting point is 00:28:36 better up front. Fton Chisholm to Drake May, that play was wide open. I would not be surprised if you see a trick player to to try to take advantage of the aggressiveness from this Texans defense. Again, they play fast, which is great. But if you're playing fast, sometimes you don't mind the P's and Q's and you get beat deep. Guys get behind you, misdirection. So I think you can see some of that from Josh McDaniel's play calling on Sunday. I also think Josh McDaniels will play a big role with the past protections and making sure that he's helping Will Campbell when he needs to help Will Campbell. You'll see some chips. There's no doubt.

Starting point is 00:29:13 Josh McDaniels has called a ton of plays and a ton of big games. And that experience should give him an edge on Sunday afternoon. All right, here's my prediction. Don't turn the football over because anything I have said during this podcast gets thrown in the garbage if the Patriots turn the ball over. Like if you go out there and you turn it over two or three times, you know, you did that against the Chargers. You escaped. I don't think you escape against the Texans if you turn the ball over a couple of times. times. Take care of the football. The Texans plus 17 in the regular season and turn over differential.

Starting point is 00:29:48 Take care of the ball. Don't give their offense short fields. Make them drive the length of the field. I look at this and I say, Josh McDaniels and Drake May, I am going to favor that over Nick Cayley and C.J. Stroud. I think that both offenses will struggle to score for the majority of this game. I think it's going to come down to a couple of big plays. I trust that Drake May can make those big plays with his arm with his legs. I don't think, unless you turn the football over, I don't think the Texans offense is going to score more than, you know, 17 points. So I've got Patriots, 20.

Starting point is 00:30:28 I've got Texans, 16. Patriots move on to the AFC championship game. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C Radio. Don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. hit that like button and subscribe. And if you're looking for a gift for someone,

Starting point is 00:30:49 check out the Everydayer Club. Add free episodes of this show, exclusive Discord server access, and more. Subscriptions can be gifted through lockdown patriots.com. Have a great day. Enjoy the football on Sunday,

Starting point is 00:31:02 and we will see you live for the post game.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Conquer: Drake Maye Faces Texans’ Defensive Beasts—Will Patriots Succeed?

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