Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Contenders: New England Patriots Super Bowl Ready? | Critical Questions

Starting point is 00:00:00 As the Pats bandwagon grows, some are starting to list the team as AFC favorites. We start today's show telling you what we think. This is Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcasts Network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattles, born and raised in New England. the past for 16 years. Also co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattels and a sports radio veteran. Welcome to Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown podcast network.

Starting point is 00:00:41 Now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. And I remind you, we will be going live on YouTube right after Jets Patriots on Thursday night. So be on the lookout for that. But on today's show, we'll start to dive into the Jets match up on Thursday night and tell you what to look out for. Also, we'll share the comment from Mike Vrable on Tuesday that helps explain this 8 and 2 start. But first, there's lots of talk about the Pats being AFC favorites. Today's episode is brought to by Fandul. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you'll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. The Patriots are unequivocally a good football team. It is inarguable at this point at 8 and 2, after Beard.

Starting point is 00:01:29 beating the bills in Buffalo, beating Tampa in Tampa this past weekend. We are talking about a good football team. I know their schedule has been on the light side. I know some people will use that against them, but they're beating bad teams soundly and they're beating good teams on the road. This is unequivocally a good football team. And Damien Woody this week on ESPN said that the Super Bowl road, the road to the Super Bowl runs through Foxborough.

Starting point is 00:01:59 Now, I'm here to tell you the Patriots have a shot to get to the Super Bowl. When you're 8 and 2, you've done what they've done, Drake May playing at the level that he's playing at with this coaching staff, you absolutely have a shot at getting to the Super Bowl. But should the Patriots be regarded as the AFC favorites? No. At least not yet. I still have some questions that need to be answered

Starting point is 00:02:24 before we get into January football. When you think about December, when you think about January, you think about terrible weather, cold weather, inclement weather, got to deal with the rain, got to deal with the snow, got to deal with the wind. And when you're dealing with those elements, you want to run the football. I mean, we could always go back to that game in 2021 in Buffalo, where Mack Jones didn't throw more than a couple of passes. It was all run, run, run, Patriots beat the bills. people are feeling great. You're going to need to run the football when you get to December, when you get to January. And right now, the Patriots, aside from the big runs from Trayvion Henderson on Sunday,

Starting point is 00:03:10 we're looking at this in totality. We're looking at this over the balance of the season. And the Patriots, they have not been able to run the football consistently. These stats include Drake May, who's done a good job running the ball. The Patriots are 27th in the NFL in rush EPA. They're 25th in EPA per rush. They're 22nd in yards per carry. They're 29th in success rate.

Starting point is 00:03:36 Trayvion Henderson is 27th in yards after contact, and that's after those two huge runs on Sunday. Ramandre Stevenson is 39th in yards after contact. That's out of 47 qualified rushers. Now, I will be fair. I always try to be fair, and I will give you this caveat. The Patriots have faced the sixth highest rate of stacked box. When defenses are playing against the Patriots, they are stacking the box.

Starting point is 00:04:07 They're putting eight or more defenders in there to stop the run. So that's the caveat. But they haven't been able to run consistently. And when we talk about inclement weather, I'm not going to sit here and tell you that Drake May can't throw the football in rain, can't throw it in snow. There is some question of whether or not his slow start in Tampa was because of the rain on that first try. I know Tony Romo made a big deal of it. I need to see a much bigger sample size than three or four throws. But I do think for the most part, we've seen

Starting point is 00:04:41 Drake May play in really good weather. So I want to see how the weather could impact him. He has said it on the record. He loves the North Carolina sunny. And he, humid weather, warm weather, so I need to see Drake May play in some tough weather to decide whether or not he can be the same quarterback or he loses a lot. He loses a little. I only think it's fair to actually see that play out before you have an opinion on it. So the run game needs to be better. I need to see the quarterback in tough weather because if Drake May is less of a quarterback in tough weather, then two of the things that this offense has relied on, and two of the reasons why Drake May has been terrific this year has been deep passing,

Starting point is 00:05:37 and it's not going to be as easy to complete those deep passes if there's wind, rain, snow involved. And also, third down efficiency. Drake May has been incredibly efficient this year, especially on third down. If you can't run and you're looking at third and nine, third and ten, that third and nine, third and ten is tougher to convert in weather that is not as good as it's been. Also, the Red Zone. The Patriots have been inefficient in the Red Zone. their defense has been horrendous in the red zone.

Starting point is 00:06:13 As a matter of fact, they literally have the worst red zone defense in football. 32nd in the league. Teams have scored 73.91% of the time that they have hit the red zone. And if you're playing better teams and better offenses, you're not going to survive if teams are scoring almost 74% of the time that they touch the red zone. because better offenses, just speaking from common sense here, better offenses are going to have much higher probability of getting into the red zone because you're dealing with better offenses, better quarterbacks,

Starting point is 00:06:52 better offensive lines, et cetera, et cetera, and the Patriots are dead last in red zone defense against offenses that wouldn't scare many people. Now, Tampa, they've got a Mecca Abuka, Baker Mayfield, but we know they didn't have some of their best. Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, the Atlanta Falcons are up and down. Don't know who you're facing when you play them. Dylan Gabriel isn't great.

Starting point is 00:07:21 We can go down the line. But the point is the point. The Patriots have not faced a number of great offenses, and they're still dead last in red zone defense. And offensively, they're below average. They're 18th in the NFL. they're scoring on 57.14% of their red zone drives. It's just not good enough.

Starting point is 00:07:42 Now, again, being fair, they have played three straight games against tough defenses. They also turn the football over a couple of times against Pittsburgh in the red area. Trayvion Henderson turned the football over in the red area a few weeks ago. So we have to highlight those. Drake May through a couple of interceptions in the end zone, one against Pittsburgh, won this past weekend against Tampa, but that goes part and parcel with struggling at times with your red zone offense. You're turning the football over.

Starting point is 00:08:13 Your short yardage runs have not been effective enough. And if you can't run consistently, the red zone is going to get tougher with tougher weather because defenses are going to start playing the run heavily when you get inside the 20, inside the 15, inside the 10, inside the 5. So you have to get the run game going, and I think that would help. your red zone offense to get going. Now, I hope their run defense gets back on track. Because if their red zone, their run defense gets back on track after what happened

Starting point is 00:08:45 against Tampa, it could help their red zone defense in December and January. Only stands to reason. If teams are going to be stuck with running the football more often than not in that bad weather, if your run defense has been what it was nine out of the first 10 weeks, then those other teams, they're going to have. challenges of scoring against you. But the Red Zone, Patriots have to be better. Before I call them the AFC favorites, they've got to be better running the football. They've got to be better in the red zone. And then just kind of the thing that we've talked about multiple times

Starting point is 00:09:18 here, their depth is a little scary. Ramandre Stevenson, Terrell Jennings, we're limited at Tuesday's practice. Short week, we'll see if they play. If not, I mean, you've got Trayvion Henderson, you've got the Ernest Johnson, and then you see what else you can cobble together from the practice squad. Austin Hooper is dealing with a concussion. He did not practice on Tuesday, very unlikely that he's going to play on a short week going through the concussion protocol. And before the season kicked off, we discussed the tight end position and how it's Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, and bust. I mean, you could look at Jack Westover, maybe C.J. Depre from the practice squad, but not great options there behind your top two. Christian Ellis and now Jack Gibbons,

Starting point is 00:10:03 At Tuesday's practice, we've talked about linebacker. Now, your top two linebackers are two out of your top three. Sorry, could miss Thursday night. We'll see if they're out there. And that's not even to talk about outside cornerback with Alex Austin and how he struggled at the start of the year. Your safety position now that Kyle Dugger and Drill Peppers are both gone. Do you really feel confident in Del Pettis taking over if one of Jalen Hawkins

Starting point is 00:10:29 or Craig Woodson gets hurt? offensive line, you're always looking for offensive linemen. So the Patriots, yes, they have a shot to get to the Super Bowl with health because of Drake May, Mike Vrable, Josh McDaniels, but I would not say that they're the favorites yet. I need some of those questions answered. All right, Mike Vrable gives us a look behind the curtain with a telling comment and anecdote about the 2025 Pats. Find out what he said next.

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Starting point is 00:12:00 dot com slash lockdown that's better help help dot com slash lockdown because taking that step towards support might just leave you wondering why didn't i do this sooner thank you for making lockdown patriots your first listen of the day thank you for making lockdown the number one sports podcast network mama we made it your team every day don't forget to help us out here by if you're watching on youtube liking comment and subscribing as we get closer to 7,500 subs. And don't forget that we will be going live on Thursday night following the Jets Patriots game.

Starting point is 00:12:40 So be on the lookout for that. Mike Vrable, it took Mike Vrable less than half a season to build culture with this Patriots team. Less than half a season. Think about 2024 for a second. I don't want to keep you there for too long because it's so tough to think about last year. But think about the pointing of the fingers.

Starting point is 00:12:59 Think about guys not taking accountability, the head coach, not taking accountability. It was a brutal season through and through, and it was rather obvious that the culture just wasn't right. And Mike Vrable, one of the first things that he needed to establish as the Patriots head coach was a culture. And he's already done it. Doug Kide posted during Tuesday's press conference with the media, Mike Vrable passes along the story that he was trying to shorten the team's schedule this week by giving up 25 minutes in the full squad meeting to give the team more rest. The leaders on the team felt it was too important and valuable.

Starting point is 00:13:43 Brabel said, quote, I appreciated that they thought it was an important part of their day, unquote. Leaders do this type of stuff. Guess what? The others follow. Also, don't overlook the staff choices. Because I think a lot of those guys have certainly helped Mike Vrable set this culture. Mark Daniels with a Mike Vrable quote from the same press conference, quote, When things are going good, you have to prepare for things when they're not, unquote.

Starting point is 00:14:13 That's a fantastic quote. When things are going good, you have to prepare for things when they're not. Don't put your feet up. Don't think you have everything figured out. Understand that you might be doing really well at whatever's going on, your life, personally, professionally, but also understand that inevitably, as part of life, things aren't always going to go well. And have you prepared yourself to deal with those moments?

Starting point is 00:14:43 Another post from Mark Daniels, Drake May said Mike Vrable gave them the option to practice inside on Tuesday, but leaders on the team opted to practice outside where it was very cold. Drake May said, quote, no shortcuts, unquote, love it. This is culture, this is character, this is toughness. How do we get here so quick? Well, you got to pick the right eggs. When you go shopping, you get to pick the right eggs. And the Patriots, Mike Vrable, the front office, they picked the right eggs.

Starting point is 00:15:17 They went out in free agency and they found a number of veterans that have track records of being good teammates, good leaders, good people. Mac Collins is a shining example of this. I don't know him personally, but he is certainly one of the guys in the league that other guys talk about in glowing terms. In every step of the way throughout his career, he has been good for a football team. He might not be getting you 85 catches in 1,500 yards, but he brings the character, he brings the culture, he brings the leadership, He brings the experience. But it wasn't only just free agency. Don't forget how this team attacked the draft.

Starting point is 00:15:59 Not only did they draft talent, which you've got to draft first and foremost, but they also drafted a lot of guys who were captains, a lot of guys who are upperclassmen. You know, you look at Craig Woodson. I think he was, what, 24 years old when he was drafted by the Patriots out of Cal. And Craig Woodson was a two-time team captain. at Cal. And they brought in a number of those guys.

Starting point is 00:16:25 You can look at a lot of the draft picks from the 25 class, and they are captains. And if they weren't captains, they were considered leaders of their football teams. And you also have the right quarterback, which helps. Drake May, his draft interviews, I'll never forget, Elliot Wolf saying, well, Drake May, when he was meeting with the Patriots, they tried to get him to throw some of his teammates under the bus on plays at North Carolina that were clearly not May's fault, but May took responsibility and accountability for the mistakes that weren't even his mistakes, and that showed a certain type of leadership.

Starting point is 00:17:04 The postgame comments that we hear from Drake May often. We also know that he is hyper competitive. We also know that he has a work ethic that is through the roof. These are all traits that you look for. when you're setting your leadership group, when you're bringing guys into the program. Mike Vrable connects. And, you know, Gerard Mayo to me,

Starting point is 00:17:30 he seemed like he connected as kind of the player in the locker room, but not necessarily connected on a level where Mike Vrable is connecting not only as a former player who can relate to all different levels, special teams guys, right? Third, fourth round, guys that are starting, guys that are winning Super Bowls, guys that are considered some of the best players at their position.

Starting point is 00:17:55 I mean, he can relate to all those different levels of player, which I do think is crucial. Gerard Mayo only knew one way, fortunately for him, which was being a really good player. But I just feel like Mike Vrable, and I'm not there behind closed doors, but I do feel like on a human level, Mike Vrable can relate to. his players, but he also keeps the line in the sand where they respect him as someone that is above them. You know, he has the human touch. He has that human connection.

Starting point is 00:18:29 We saw the moment when Christian Barmore was hurt and the telecast talked about it, Jim Nance, Tony Romo talked about it in real time when Vrable is, you know, kneeling down next to Christian Barmore and he's holding Barmore's hand. And that's to tell Christian Barmore, like, I'm here with you, man. I'm not just your coach that's just going to throw you out there and I just want stats. I just want performance. I'm here for you as well. And when you're going through something like this, I'm going to be there.

Starting point is 00:19:00 You know, the players, players loved playing for Mike Vrable in Tennessee. I'm not going to say 100% of the players. You're not going to get 100% approval rating in anything. But a lot of players in Tennessee loved playing for him. I mean, just listen to Taylor Luan talk about his experiences. And a lot of guys in Cleveland seemingly enjoyed the company of Mike Vrable. And, you know, he hit it off in Cleveland. And the same is pretty obvious in New England.

Starting point is 00:19:30 And Doug Kide spoke to Stefan Diggs. And Stefan Diggs says that Mike Vrable's coaching style is like, quote, unquote, the perfect parent. And again, if you're the perfect parent, you feel like you connect to your parent, your mom or your dad. You have a great relationship. with your mom, your dad, hopefully both for your sake. But you also know they're your parents. They've got final say. They lay down the law.

Starting point is 00:19:58 And you saw, if you didn't see, a video of Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis before the fourth and goal situation down in Tampa where they're talking. And Carlton Davis says he would go for it. And Christian Gonzalez says he would go for it. And Mike Rable goes for it because he's giving them the consistency. he's giving them the belief he's giving them the trust and now they're all on the same page Mike fable wants to go for it on fourth and goal I'd imagine the vast majority of the team said let's go for it on fourth and goal how do you exceed expectations you create belief you create confidence

Starting point is 00:20:35 and you play smart and we've seen a lot of that you play and coach smart and the right leadership group absolutely helps, and that's what Mike Vrable and his coaching staff did and the players. They selected the right leadership group, guys that earned it. They weren't all all pros. I know Marcus Jones was an all pro returner, but not an all pro cornerback, but he was named a captain. And what you see right now is 100% buy-in. Coming up next, it's time to get an early jump on this week's matchup with some thoughts on the Jets. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. The opening whistle blows on a new repair.

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Starting point is 00:23:36 but I did watch Cleveland and the Jets from last weekend. I checked out the All-22, and I wanted to give you some early thoughts before we get into that crossover tomorrow. Number one, Garrett Wilson is going to be out for the Jets. He's going to miss three to four weeks, and this is a crippling injury for the Jets and the Jets offense. When you look at wide receiver, the Jets, they just don't have much. Tyler Johnson, John Metchy, who was traded during the season,

Starting point is 00:24:06 into New York, right, from Houston. They just added A.D. Mitchell from Indianapolis. So how much of the offense does A.D. Mitchell know? Probably nothing. John Metchie, of course. You know, dealing with learning the offense as well. So they just don't have a lot at wide receiver. They didn't have a lot at wide receiver with Garrett Wilson.

Starting point is 00:24:29 And I do wonder, will the Patriots play man coverage? Will they look at these quote unquote weapons and say, Now, we can lock him down. Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis. We're going to play man coverage. Let's play man and let's put pressure on Justin Fields in that run game. So Garrett Wilson being out is huge, huge for the Jets offense. Speaking of Justin Fields, man, oh man, does he love running?

Starting point is 00:24:58 We've talked about Drake May where if he feels pressure at times or if, you know, he doesn't quite have somebody open quickly. He will tuck and run. Now he's been getting better at that. I thought he was much better at that as we talked about on yesterday's episode against Tampa than he was against Atlanta. He is showing improvement. Justin Fields has never really shown improvement in that category. He loves running and he's going to tuck and run as quickly as he can.

Starting point is 00:25:31 And what is really difficult for him is he doesn't. necessarily see it well, as they say. Drake May sees the field well. He gets through progressions. He understands what defenses are trying to do against him. He has been one of the best quarterbacks against disguised coverages this year. So he sees it well. Justin Fields doesn't. So when you combine not seeing the field well and then, you know, almost autopilot going to run with the football, when something doesn't feel right, what you have is a quarterback that is constantly scrambling, running around, not keeping his eyes down field, missing open receivers. He is also inaccurate, so he has trouble hitting sometimes open guys, let alone guys that he's

Starting point is 00:26:18 going to fit it into a window. And throughout his career, he's had some decision-making questions. So Justin Fields, if you compare him to Baker Mayfield, who I didn't think was great, by the way, this past weekend against the Patriots defense, but you compare him to, you know, Baker Mayfield, to Josh Allen, some of these quarterbacks, Aaron Rogers, when Rogers was playing pretty well. You compare him to some of the quarterbacks, the Patriots have faced this year. Justin Fields just, he doesn't stack up.

Starting point is 00:26:46 And so that's a weakness. And now he doesn't have Garrett Wilson to help him. But I do wonder if the Patriots can get pressure. Can they get pressure to rattle Justin Fields? You know, the Jets' offensive line, it's not bad. They've got a number of guys that they've drafted pretty high. Olu Faschanoo, the 2024 first round pick. He kept Miles Garrett mostly quiet on Sunday, and we know how difficult that is.

Starting point is 00:27:14 You got left guard John Simpson, who migrating system, I had him as a net neutral. I had him as a zero versus Cleveland, which sounds bad, but it's really not. If you're an offensive lineman and you're at a zero at the end of the day, then it all evened out. Joe Titman, right guard. He also graded as a zero against Cleveland, so he evened out. And then you've got right tackle, a guy we talked about a lot before the draft, Armand Membue, who's having a really good rookie season. Didn't think he was necessarily awesome against Cleveland, but he's been good this year. Josh Myers, the center, he could be the weak spot of this offensive line. But the offensive line, it's pretty good. And we know the Patriots

Starting point is 00:27:57 They have not consistently gotten a four-man pass rush for a lot of this year, especially lately. In two guys who I think are going through it physically, Harold Landry and Christian Barmore, Harold Landry is still making positive plays, but a lot of those positive plays are coming in the run game on the edge. He has lost a little bit of that pass rush juice that he had the first month, month and a half. And I think it goes directly back to, you know, a few weeks ago when he had a really tough looking injury that I thought was going to cost him the season. He somehow got back out there. I believe it was the Titans game,

Starting point is 00:28:33 but he hasn't necessarily been the same guy since. Christian Barmore, two quiet weeks in a row. Now, against Atlanta, you could explain some of that. Atlanta doubled teamed him a lot. I think Evan Lazar had it at 14 times. But Christian Barmore, he was, for all intents and purposes, ineffective against Tampa. And the Patriots need Christian Barmore to get going again,

Starting point is 00:28:57 because if you're not going to have Harold Landry at full speed, Milton Williams and Christian Barmore are going to provide a lot of your pass rush, of course, with Caleb Von Chason, who's been really good. But Harold Landry and Christian Barmore, if they can get going again, that'd be huge for this defense, huge for this pass rush. Now offensively for the Patriots, I think you could see a decent amount of play action against the Jets defense. I think you could see some misdirection, the second and third levels of

Starting point is 00:29:27 this Jets defense, they can be baited. So I think you're going to see some of that from Josh McDaniels and Drake May. I wonder how will Will Campbell and Jared Wilson follow up from this past weekend? Because I don't think either guy was good in that game against Tampa. I thought in the second half specifically, both guys had a rough time. You know, how do they respond to that after a tough game in a short week? And then, of course, running backs from Andre Stevenson, Terrell Jennings, are they health? I do think that the Patriots could try to attack the edges of this Jets defense, this run defense.

Starting point is 00:30:04 And I think Trayvion Henderson, you know, could get going a little bit outside the tackles. But who's healthy and what's the usage going to look like? So just some early thoughts we'll have more during the crossover. But that wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. And don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Don't forget to hit that thumbs up, hit that like button.

Starting point is 00:30:30 Don't forget to subscribe. We're trying to get to 75 hunch. Let's get there by the weekend. And for your second, listen, get a double dose of the lockdown NFL podcast with Tyler the Madman Roland and Tony Wiggins. Find Lockdown NFL on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcast. Have a fantastic day. And we'll see you tomorrow with more Thursday night football thoughts on the crossover episode.

Starting point is 00:30:57 Thank you.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Contenders: New England Patriots Super Bowl Ready? | Critical Questions

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