Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Crossover Thursday: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills in Week 13

Episode Date: December 1, 2022

It’s Crossover Thursday on the Locked On Podcast Network. Join hosts Mike D’Abate of Locked On Patriots and Joe Marino of Locked On Bills as they preview this Thursday night showdown between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA at 8: 15 p.m. ET in Week 13 of the 2022 NFL Season.Find and follow Locked On Patriots on your favorite podcast platforms:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/locked-on-patriots-daily-podcast-on-the-new-england/id1140512627 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1c5ZxFmwg3WbfxAU3tR5Ve?si=k196wH-yRqifUcQQz8SjIQStitcher: https://www.stitcher.com/show/locked-on-patriots And follow host Mike D’Abate on Twitter, where he’ll be sharing the latest news about the New England Patriots and talking with fans.On Twitter: @mdabateNFLSupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!LinkedInLinkedIn Jobs helps you find the candidates you want to talk to, faster. Post your job for free at LinkedIn.com/LOCKEDONNFLBuilt BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts!PrizePicksFirst time users can receive a 100% instant deposit match up to $100 with promo code LOCKEDON. That’s PrizePicks.com – promo code; LOCKEDONSimpliSafeWith Fast Protect™️ Technology, exclusively from SimpliSafe, 24/7 monitoring agents capture evidence to accurately verify a threat for faster police response. There’s No Safe Like SimpliSafe. Visit SimpliSafe.com/LockedOnNFL to learn more.TuroForget boring rental cars and find your drive at Turo.com AudibleHead over to Locked On NFL for a sneak peak of Block Forever or catch the full series available anywhere you get your podcast. Available everywhere now! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

New England Patriots fans, Bills Mafia, thank you once again for taking time out of your busy schedules to join us here on Crossover Thursday across the Lockdown Podcast Network. Of course, we are bringing you up-to-date and interesting coverage today for the New England Patriots hosting the Buffalo Bills in Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season this Thursday, 8 p.m at Gillette Stadium and of course it is crossover Thursday and it is presented by our friends at PrizePix. PrizePix is so much fun and it's easy to play there's no competing with other players it's just you versus the projections available pick two to five players and if they score more or less than their PrizePix projection you can win up to 10 times your money on your entry it can literally take less than 60 seconds to enter that's right folks it's that easy to play we love prize picks you will too first time users can receive a 100 instant

deposit match up to 100 with promo code locked on that is prizepix.com, promo code LOCKEDON. And of course, folks, because it's Crossover Thursday, that means Lockdown Patriots and Lockdown Bills cross the streams, and it's always some of our favorite crossovers here in Patriots land anyway. I know I can speak very confidently for my followers. They've been waiting to see Joe Marino on the side of this screen for a good long while. So that being said, I'm Mike DeBate, host of Locked On Patriots, and joining me is the great, my good friend, but the great Joe Marino, host of Locked On Bills. Joe, it's always an honor, always a privilege to join you on the microphone

for these crossovers. Hey, Mike, we got to do this three times last year. The leader in the clubhouse, the most common crossover discussions that I've had are with you, my guy. And we get to do it twice here over the rest of this season, maybe three times. We'll see. Absolutely. You know what? We didn't think so last year, and they ended up aligning, or I should say the football gods ended up smiling on us all. Well, they smiled on Western New York. I don't know so much about New England. There's still some pretty painful memories of a couple of those matchups.

But all kidding aside, this one definitely has been circled on the calendars of both franchises for a good long while. The tables have certainly turned. There has no changing of the guard this time around. That guard has long been at post now, and that is the Buffalo Bills. In my opinion, still the class of the AFC East. I think still the class of the conference, and they're the team that everyone is looking up at. All due respect, Dolphins fans and Jets fans,

but the Bills still own this division until further notice. And that leaves the Patriots kind of cellar dwelling right now. Not something that this fan base in Foxborough is used to, but I think the Patriots have warmed to the idea that they are now the hunter as opposed to being the hunted. So because you guys are coming in as the visitors this time around, Joe, let's start with you. And obviously on Crossover Thursday, we like to start with the big ticket stories of the

week regarding the team that we all cover. So in Western New York, in Orchard Park right now, what's the big story coming out of Buffalo, whether it relates to this game or in general for the Buffalo Bills? Well, Mike, for all the flowers that you just gave the Bills as the class of not only the AFC East but the AFC, they're still looking for their first divisional win this season. They're 0-2 right now in the AFC East with losses to the Dolphins and the Jets. I think that's pretty unexpected considering the Bills only lost one divisional game

over the last two seasons prior to this year. Now there's unique circumstances in each of those games, but the bottom line is the Bills right now are 0-2 in the AFC East in what has proven to be a very, very competitive division. Every other team in the AFC East, the Dolphins, Jets, and Patriots, they've already got two division wins under their belts. The Bills have none. They have some ground to make up.

And look, you're looking at a division here with all four teams right now above 500. It looks like this division could produce at least three playoff teams this year, at least. And for all the talk about the AFC West entering the season, the most competitive division is clearly the AFC East. The Patriots, you mentioned, they're in last place in the AFC East. If that same 6-5 record was applied to the AFC West,

they'd be in second place right now. And this game for the Bills against New England on Thursday night is the first of three in a row against AFC East foes. They get the Patriots on Thursday night, then the Jets, then the Dolphins, both the Jets and Dolphins being home games for the Bills in a season where they haven't played a whole lot of games at Highmark Stadium. With the way the schedule is stacked up and then, of course, losing a home game to Ford Field due to the snowstorm. It'll be nice for Buffalo to be able to play some some divisional games at home but this feels like a gotta have it game for both teams you know if the Bills want to win that division for a third consecutive year and host playoff games falling to 0-3 in the division makes that quite tough so

I think the storyline here from the Bills is simply, can you go get that first divisional win of the season and really start stacking them with the opportunity that you have not only in the next three weeks, but over the final six weeks of the season? Absolutely. And, you know, from all intents and purposes, it really is interesting to hear that from a Bills perspective, because you look at, obviously, the accolades that they received. Well-deserved. No one's arguing that, that this team is one of the most complete teams in the conference, in the NFL right now.

You sometimes fail to see the actual records and how these things have a tendency to play out. Bill Parcells always used to say, you are what your record says you are. And you know that the Bills are coming into this with a lot of extra motivation. And it's nice to know that because the Pats are coming in with a lot of extra motivation as well. You can hear it this week in what the players are saying, in their attitude,

and basically their determination and their singular streamlined focus on what this game means to them. Guys like Adrian Phillips, Mack Jones have already mentioned the last year and the bitter taste that was left in their mouth, especially after the playoff loss, which was a demoralizing loss for the New England Patriots. They have this game circled for a reason. And one of those reasons is on the defensive side of the ball. And to me, that's actually the biggest story for the New England Patriots right now. I know there are issues regarding injury with Damian Harris, David Andrews, Isaiah Wynn. Those are all kind of working their way through the pipeline right now.

You also have Mac Jones being the wild card. Is he back to being Mac Jones of last year, or is he regressing more this year? Are Bills fans looking at possibly getting to Mac on every single occasion? These are all storylines, but the Patriots really lost the two games to the Bills last year at the tail end of the season, one at the end of the regular season and the playoff loss because their defense was simply too old, too slow to be able to keep up with the vertical passing attack that the Bills put out there and Josh Allen in general. He just absolutely carved them up. And, you know, the one thing that we remember allowing Josh Allen, when I say we meaning the Patriots fans, remember about allowing Josh to

operate from a clean pocket or extend plays under pressure. That's something that he absolutely eats up like crazy. You can't do anything in structure with him. He'll carve you up. And, you know, anybody that doesn't remember, just go take a look at some of those last year's footage of the Isaiah McKenzie crossers, and you'll see exactly what I'm talking about. Absolute nightmare for the New England Patriots. When Allen has airspace in the pocket to extend plays, he is absolutely lethal. So what the Patriots have tried to do is get younger at linebacker and get deeper at perimeter corner. And these are two things that are going to be on full display, I think, on Thursday night.

If the Patriots are serious about trying to get back in contention for a playoff spot, they have to be able to hang with the Bills and try to neutralize what Josh Allen does. Not an easy task, but here's how they have to do it. If they find a way to rush josh allen and not just rush him for the sake of trying to contain him because that's not going to work we've seen that not work before they need a designed rush plan to pressure him into some of those quick decisions that is really i think josh allen's kryptonite that's where you can force him into

making some bad throws and maybe get a chance to be able to pick him off with some of the depth they have now at perimeter corner that they didn't have last year. Allen has 11 turnover worthy plays according to the stats that I've compiled this week while under pressure this season. That's time for second most in the NFL Joe. So if the Patriots are to do that, I'm looking for them to utilize a five-man package, and here's where the linebackers come into play. Right now, the Patriots brought in a guy like Mack Wilson, former Cleveland Brown, not necessarily illuminating the stat sheets this year, but what he does well is serve as a quarterback spy when the Patriots want to deploy their four best pass rushers, namely the top two of those, Matthew Judon and Dietrich Weiss Jr. If the Patriots can orchestrate those rushes so Wilson can anticipate where Allen might try to escape,

that to me is going to be where the Patriots are going to try to utilize their upgrades at the linebacker position and at the cornerback position to be able to try to lock down some of these fast wide receivers. Easier said than done, my friend, because that is a lethal offense that the Buffalo Bills have. But that to me is the biggest story. Have the Patriots done enough at linebacker and at cornerback to be able to mitigate some of what we saw last year in the closing moments of 2021? Yeah, it'll be fascinating to find out, Mike. And as we transition to the matchups here in the next segment, I'll have some some real thoughts about the importance of the pass rush and pass protection for both sides of the equationups, and talking about interesting divisional matchups like the one we're going to watch on Thursday night. But, of course, folks, this episode today is brought to you by Audible.

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Series available anywhere you get your podcasts. Available everywhere now. Audible, get in the game. Patriots fans and Bills Mafia, thank you once again for joining us here on Locked On Crossover Thursday. Mike DeBate of Locked On Patriots, Joe Marino of Locked On Bills, crossing the streams here in this Week 13 matchup between the Pats and Bills this coming Thursday at Gillette Stadium. And Joe, in the previous segment, we talked about some of the big stories surrounding the New England Patriots. And you were very frank about the Bills worried about, well, not worried, but you're very frank about the Bills divisional record and the fact that they're seeking their first divisional win.

I think it says something about the Patriots and how much they are anticipating this matchup that I chose as my big story. Maybe one of the key matchups, maybe jumping the gun a little bit here, but we've been looking forward to this one for a while because as we said it was not a fun matchup for this side of the coin when the patriots and the bills faced off in the playoffs but that being said my friend i know the bills are looking forward to this one and they have key matchups on their mind when you look at the evaluation on this matchup both sides of the ball offense defense even the third phase and special teams what are you most looking forward to watching on the field this Thursday?

Well, Mike, I think this game is really going to be decided by both teams' ability to rush the quarterback and both teams' ability to protect the quarterback. And when I look at that through the Bills' lens of defending against a Patriots pass rush that's been outstanding all season long, they're number two. In pressure rate, they're number two. In sack rate, Matthew Judon leads the NFL in sacks. And you mentioned Dietrich Weiss.

Josh Uche provides a different type of a skill set. He's an X factor to me with how he complements them, kind of long-armed, heavy hands, power from Judon and Weiss. Get that speed and flexibility from uche there's a lot of different skill sets and i guess fortunately for the bills christian parmore is not part of the equation right now because that that guy probably puts this really over the top uh certainly a player that the patriots are missing right now and so you've got this dynamic pass rush that has been good all year long against the bills

offensive line that has past protected quite well. But I don't think Deion Dawkins is going to play in this game. That's the Bills starting left tackle. And so now you have David Questenbury, who's a good swing tackle, stepping in, but he's still a reserve. That's a better run blocker than he is pass blocker. And so I'm very interested in seeing what the Bills plan is to deal with this very dynamic Patriots pass rush. And I think they have to tap into a couple of different things here. I think you want to utilize your draws and your screenplays.

That's always a good pass rush neutralizer. Not something we've seen a whole lot from the Bills this year. So do they have that in the bag? Can they deploy that this week? But also, I think making this a space game is probably the best thing that the Bills this year. So do they have that in the bag? Can they deploy that this week? But also, I think making this a space game is probably the best thing that the Bills can do. Really spread them out. I would, if I'm Ken Dorsey, I'm going empty a lot.

I'm making sure that I have at least four and usually five eligibles in routes when I pass the football to really try to dictate terms and allow Josh Allen to just find matchups and get the ball out of his hands quickly and put some stress back on new England to, you know, if they're going to play man coverage to,

to be able to stay in phase, or if they're going to play zone, to be able to space the field with, with five eligibles. And so I think that's what the bills have to do, but a big task here against the Patriots pass rush. That's been outstanding all season long. Now,

Mike, on the other side of the coin is the bills pass rush going up against Mac Jones in this Patriots offensive line. And the pressure splits with Mac Jones and the blitz splits with Mac Jones this year are pretty crazy to me. I mean, we're talking about a player in Mac Jones that when he's under pressure, his passer rating drops 76.7 points. He's got a 27.6 passer rating this year under pressure. That's dead last in the NFL, and that's including all 38 quarterbacks that have had at least 120 dropbacks. It's a significant component of the equation this week. And for a Bills team that's not going to have Von Miller, you certainly say, well, that's great news for the Patriots, and it is. But the good news,

I guess, for the Bills to counter that is blitzing Mac Jones is also a good idea. And typically that's not the case. There's a lot of quarterbacks that you don't want to blitz because they're going to kill you. Well, that's not been the case for Mac Jones. He's also dead last in the NFL in passer rating against the blitz 56.3. He's second worst in completion percentage. So I think this is an opportunity for the Bills to use the talent that they do have on their defensive line, which is loaded with first and second round picks, but also be willing to blitz more. You can send Tremaine Emmons. You can send Matt Milano. You can send defensive backs.

And I think this is that type of game plan for the Bills on defense where getting pressure on Mac Jones is everything. And that's not even to mention Ramondre Stevenson, who this offense runs through, who's a phenomenal young player that gives me a lot of concern but as much as dealing with all the challenges that Ramondre Stevenson presents this is about getting pressure on Mac Jones and I think the Bills will have to tap into their blitz resources to get that done and and maybe the defense will look a little bit different this week but it's got to be about affecting affecting the Patriots quarterback absolutely I'm so glad that you mentioned that but it's got to be about affecting the Patriots quarterback. Absolutely. I'm so glad that you mentioned that because it's spot on as usual. If you're going to have success against the New England Patriots, and teams have had success against the New England

Patriots this season by pressuring Mac Jones, specifically the second and third level of the defense and those blitzes. Something that Leslie Frazier did very well last year was be able to find the balance in confusing Mac Jones about when the blitz was coming. And then when the blitzes. Something that Leslie Frazier did very well last year was be able to find the balance in confusing Mac Jones about when the blitz was coming and then when the blitz did come, being able to apply proper pressure. I think if they do that this time around, then you will see that big time dip between Mac's efficiency and his deficiency. And I think that's where that comes into play. And that's exactly what the Bills, I think, are going to try to do. In that regard, it's going to be interesting to see how this pass rush, which really has been revolutionized by Von Miller.

He has really, really taken Buffalo's pass rush to the next level. If there was an area of the Buffalo Bills defense last year that needed maybe a little bit of a boost, well, they got one of the best in the league to come in and boost it. And that's exactly what he's done. But I caution Patriots fans, and I've said this throughout the week here on Locked On Patriots, the Bills still have several formidable rushers that are capable of applying that pressure, even without Von Miller. You mentioned a few of them.

You mentioned Tremaine Edmonds. You mentioned Matt Milano. One of the real key matchups that I'm looking for in this one right now is going to be defensive tackle at Oliver going up against possibly left guard Cole Strange. The New England Patriots right now have had a much maligned offensive line. Some of that is because of structuring. Some of it is because of play calling and just being out of place and not having a whole lot of cohesion. Patriots have had a turnstile going on there in a lot of ways because of injuries to Isaiah Wynn, David Andrews. Trent Brown hasn't been the same player that we've seen in the past. So when you look at this offensive line, Cole Strange as a rookie has an awful lot

on his shoulders trying to contain Oliver. And also Oliver is going, I think, eat up a lot of what the center position has if, in fact, andrews is not able to go in this game and james ferentz gets the start word has it that david's going to do everything he can to be out there so my guess right now and we don't have the final injury report in front of us while we're recording this folks but my guess is that david does play but if not i think oliver is going to be a very interesting matchup because he plays a lot like Quinn and Williams, who gave Cole Strange such fits in the matchups that the Patriots matched up with the Jets. That could be a very difficult situation for him because you look at Oliver, he's got that quick step, that quick first step to get around the blocks.

And without Von Miller, I think he's going to play a very key role in the Bills' ability to get pressure on Mac Jones. So that's where I'm looking if I'm on defense for the Patriots. If I'm on, excuse me, for offense for the Patriots, that's where I'm looking for. Because if they can avoid that, it allows Mac to be able to pick his targets. He can choose guys like a Devontae Parker downfield or a Hunter Henry or get to Jacoby Myers when he needs that outlet in a hurry. And also, you mentioned Ramondre Stevenson, a dual threat, a guy that can not only carry the ball, but also one of their leading receivers right now as well.

And he can definitely do the job out of the backfield. And I look for him to be a factor in that as well, if the Patriots can find some offensive track. On the defensive side of the ball, I kind of tipped my hand in the previous segment, so I'm not going to go on with a long harangue. Let's just say that the Patriots right now might be able to find some success against the Bills when it comes to running the football. I know that the New England Patriots right now have done a pretty good job in containing Buffalo's running game in the past, although Devin Singletary and Niame Hines are a nice one-two combination,

a little bit different dynamic than what the Patriots saw last year. That will be one to watch. But ultimately, I think this is going to come down to whether or not Matt Judon can put any type of pressure on Josh Allen. We talked about the five-man rush the last time. That is designed to get Matt Judon after the quarterback and if that's happening then the Patriots strategy is working if it's not it's going to be a very very long night in Foxborough so can the Bills offensive line without Deion Dawkins on the left I think Matt

Judon's going to match up with Spencer Brown on the right Brown has had his difficulties in pass protection this year so it's going to be interesting to see if a candidate right now for defensive player of the year is able to take advantage of that if he can Patriots got a good shot if not again a long night in Foxborough and we've had a few of those against the Bills in recent memory Joe I think in the regular season what the road team has won the last three in this series so you, you know, it's, I think any team would prefer it being played in their home stadium, but that's kind of a really unique trend over the last several outings

against these two games in the regular season. Absolutely. It really has. And you know what? It's just goes to show you that everything is unpredictable in the NFL. Just when you think it's going to zig, it zags. So that's going to be something fun. And of course do not discount the fact that the Patriots are going to be wearing their old throwbacks. There's something about those red uniforms and that Patriot on the helmet that just brings

out something in this team. So who knows? Maybe that could be a deciding factor. Folks, I kid. I'm only joking. But they are going to be aesthetically pleasing to look at. That I will guarantee. I think Pat's fans and Bill's fans don't agree on a whole lot,

but these are two, these are when the Patriots are wearing their reds, by the way, these are two of the sharpest dressed uniforms, sharpest dressed teams in the NFL, because there's just something about the classic look that the bills, you know, roll out every single week.

I'm a huge fan of it. And I think the Patriots would bring back the reds anyway, but that's just me, Joe. It's almost time to give our predictions here on Locked on Patriots and Locked on Bills. Locked on crossover Thursday for this evening's game, because you're probably listening to this on Thursday morning, folks, between the Patriots and the Bills. Are we going to strictly follow the Homer lines or will one of us cross behind enemy

lines? That's always interesting stay tuned as we continue to cross the streams here on locked on patriots and locked on bills but first folks today's episode is brought to you by our good friends over at bet online that online is your number one source for betting football and the start of the basketball season hockey you name it they're into it and you can find all the latest player developments, team matchups, news podcasts, and in-depth analysis on every game. And as always, BetOnline remains your continued source for all your sports wagering information,

with live betting and up-to-the-minute scores for every sport out there. They're the fastest, they're the easiest way to check in on all of your favorite games and events, including MMA, boxing, and golf. So head to the website today or use your mobile device to learn more about the trends and the action. BetOnline, where the game starts. Patriots fans, Bills Mafia, thank you once again for joining us here today on Locked On Crossover Thursday, the Thursday night game between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills, first meeting between these two divisional rivals.

Joe, we're going to do this again in another couple of weeks, but that doesn't change the fact that these are always special moments. I always enjoy doing this crossover, perhaps on equal par with some of the rest of my colleagues. I'm not going to go and I'm not going to say I'm going to play favorites, but this is definitely right up there at the top. Bills fans have always been very kind to me, so I appreciate that as well. But prediction time can always draw that line in the sand. And as we look at this matchup, obviously there's a lot on the line for the New England Patriots.

There's a lot on the line for the Buffalo Bills as well there's a lot on the line for the buffalo bills as well as they try to re-establish their supremacy in the conference patriots fighting for their lives in the playoff spot oh what a difference a couple of year makes it feels like that should be reversed here in lockdown here in lockdown patriots land but such is life my friend when you look at this game and you look at from top to bottom the matchups we've discussed everything that factors in, how do you see this one shaken out? Who wins in week 13? All right, Mike, this is always a fun thing that we have to do, right?

Offering these predictions and explaining ourselves, knowing that this will be broadcasted to both of the fan bases. But I'll just be honest, like I always am, and tell you how I feel about the result of this game. I think the Bills win this game 28-24, and I'm going to give you some reasons why, of course. And there are going to be some things that I know that Patriots fans are aware of and probably don't want to hear right now.

But the Patriots are 6-0 this season when they give up less than 20 points. They're 0-5 when they give up more than 20. The Patriots are 0-8 with Mac Jones when opposing offenses score more than 25 points in a game. The Bills average 28 this season. Josh Allen's the X factor. He is. I think the Patriots' defense is outstanding. I think there's a big level of concern that I have that they do have a good recipe to beat the Bills, especially without their left tackle. But it's been a little bit of time since we've seen vintage Josh Allen, if that makes sense. Really, over the last several games, there's been production, but it hadn't

looked the same. And that comes off the heels of, of course, the elbow injury. Josh is playing through a UCL sprain right now. And it's obvious if you've ever watched Josh Allen play and you've watched him over the last couple weeks, you know that that is limiting him to an extent. Also, you're dealing with a situation where there was this stretch of games where the turnovers got a little bit out of control. I think Josh threw like six interceptions over three games, a lot of those coming in the red zone.

And it affected his confidence a little bit because even before the injury at the end of the Jets game earlier in that game you could tell that he was being a little bit more calculated with his decision making but I think every week since the injury and now now we're a few weeks removed I thought Josh has looked a little bit more like himself he wasn't limited at all this week in practice, which is the first time in a while. And I think this is a moment for Josh where we see more of the typical Josh Allen that we're used to seeing, especially because I think that they've learned a lot of good lessons over the last few weeks, not only about resilience and how they can incorporate the run game, but for Josh Allen in trusting things a little bit more,

that throw to Stephon Diggs that put them in position to win the game against the Lions on Thanksgiving, that's the vintage Josh Allen that the Bills need to kind of see again as he's kind of worked through this injury and also kind of gaining back his confidence. The X factor on the other side of the ball is obviously a healthy Tremaine Edmonds. The Bills haven't had him in a couple of weeks, and he's a very important player for their pass coverage in the middle of the field and, of course, being able to stop the run

and having a 250-pound linebacker to deal with, or a Mondre Stevenson's going to be a big help for the Bills' defense this week. And I think that my belief that Josh Allen will find his form a bit more this week and also the reinsertion of Tremaine Emmons into this lineup, that's going to matter a lot. And, Mike, the Bills have been injured all season long, and I know that nobody cares about injuries, right? You don't get any extra points for that or anything like that.

They're banged up. But it's ironic that in a week where the Bills are not going to have Von Miller and they're not going to have Deion Dawkins, right, their star pass rusher and their left tackle, we actually think that the Bills are getting healthy. If that's an indication as to just how bad the injuries have been this year. And I think that getting Trey White back in the secondary and Kier Elam back is going to change some of the dynamics for the Bills

who I guess have at 8 and three have somewhat in recent weeks, not necessarily look like the dominant team that everybody expected them to be all year and what they were earlier in the season before the injuries really, really started to compound. I think that Josh Allen's the X factor. I think the Bills will score points, and I think that puts a lot more on Mac Jones. And when it is required of Mac Jones to be the catalyst for the Patriots to win ball games, it hadn't gone well. And I think the Bills are in a position to make the Patriots be in that type of position to lean on Mac Jones. And can he score? Can he get up to 28 points? Can he score 30 points against the Bills defense? I'll side with Josh Allen on being able to out-duel Mac Jones on Thursday night. Yeah, I think in a lot of ways you make

an awful lot of sense. The one thing that lends me to believe that Mac may be a little bit better against the pressure in this game than he has been pretty much all season long is that I think the Patriots figured out against the Vikings that in order to keep him honest, in order to keep him on the level where he needs to be, you need to operate out of play action that in order to keep him honest, in order to keep him on the level where he needs to be, you need to operate out of play action and be able to utilize that. Use the run to start opening things up, but also be able to operate out of play action. Find seam routes that allows guys like Hunter Henry and Jacoby Myers to get open and get

big time yardage. You've got guys like Devontae Parker and even Tyquan Thornton when he's ready and healthy to get down the field and be able to make the big play. But at the same time, when the Patriots are operating in the short field, they do that a little bit better. So I look for the Patriots to try to neutralize that by utilizing play action a little bit more. Whether or not they actually do it or whether or not it works is going to be one of those things that we'll have to see on Thursday night. But that's how I would play it if I'm coordinating that offense. On the defensive side of the ball, I completely agree with you on Josh Allen being the X factor here.

The Patriots had their hands full with Justin Jefferson on Thanksgiving night. Now they come in and they have Stephon Diggs, someone that not only is capable of providing the same type, if not greater, production than Jefferson gave the Vikings on Thursday, but he's also someone that knows the Patriots' defense very well. He's seen them a couple of times. He's victimized them before, and his ability as a route runner, to me, is something that has really caused difficulty for this Patriots secondary, but he's not the only threat. You've got Gabe Davis that can be a big play threat as well. You've got Dawson Knox at the tight end position that could make things happen.

If Kyle Duggar has another subpar game like he had on Thanksgiving night, that could be a difficult situation as well. You saw TJ Hawkinson get some catches and be able to make some things happen. If Duggar doesn't get some help or he's not someone that can cover someone like a Dawson Knox,

I think it's going to be difficult for them as well and then of course I mentioned those Isaiah McKenzie crossers I still have nightmares over those if the Patriots do decide that Miles Bryan is the guy to cover him again Buffalo Bills fans are going to be very happy in this one I think they'll devise something different but that's just the way I'm looking at this right now look bottom line the Patriots I think on the perimeter do not have Look, bottom line, the Patriots, I think, on the perimeter, do not have enough to be able to contain this game, and I think that's the difference maker. The Patriots are younger.

They're quicker. They've got better production out of the linebacker position. You mentioned Josh Uche, someone that I failed to mention in my response, but I completely agree with you. Anthony Jennings as well has been very good in terms of infusing youth and speed into that core and I do look for Mack Wilson to be the spy but Jonathan Jones and Jalen Mills are going to have their hands full and Jack Jones is an exciting young player but I'm not sure if the ready for prime

time is going to be exactly what he needs this time around because of that I think the Bills are able to put a little bit of a hurt on the Patriots defensively and get the points that they need. I also agree with you. I think this is going to be a little bit more high scoring than most of what we see on Thursday night football. I have the Bills taking this one by a final of 27 to 21. You know, Mike, one of the things that we probably should have gotten to at some point in this conversation is the overall X factor of turnovers in this game where both teams the bills and the and the patriots are have not been good at protecting the football right like the bills are number one in turnover percentage i think that the patriots are

number five against two defenses that are very good at taking away the football right two of the best takeaway teams in the league and so i guess the good news for both teams the patriots over the last two haven't turned over the football and the bills over the last two have only turned it over one time a really good play by alex lenzoloni on thanksgiving to get an interception um but that's an x factor in this game and of course you know you hinted at it at one point but special teams where um both teams are very very very good in in terms of special teams but that marcus jones guy that you got back there returning kicks and punts that's a game changer Um, both teams are very, very, very good in, in, in terms of special teams, but that Marcus Jones guy that you got back there, returning kicks and punts, that's a game changer, right?

That's, that's been one of my big talking points all week. Well, yes, he, he certainly is. I enjoyed watching him at Houston, not so much over there in Foxborough because this guy's a problem. Um, so, you know, I'm, I'm interested in the bills that Naheem Hines is their kick and punt returner. And, you know, he hasn't had this had the same level of success as Marcus Jones has throughout his career, but certainly a lethal return guy himself.

And so special teams can really be a neutralizer for teams or an X factor, if you will, however you want to look at it. So I'm looking for special teams to play a role in this ball game on Thursday night. A big one here for both teams. Absolutely. And you mentioned special teams. The Patriots are coming off of a game where they surrendered a 97-yard kick return for both teams. Absolutely. And you mentioned special teams. I mean, the Patriots are coming off of a game where they surrendered a 97 yard kick return for a touchdown that did not sit well in the locker room. We talked to Cam Atcher, the Patriots special team coordinator and Bill Belichick

earlier this week. Neither one of them had too much to say. And you know that a lot is being said behind closed doors. So Patriots looking to shore that up. And what better way to end today's conversation than I think to give a little love to two of the best kickers in the conference, two of the best kickers in the league right now, Tyler Bass, 23 of 26, 32 of 33 on point extra tries. Excellent, excellent job for Tyler. And of course, I got to give a little love to my guy, Nick Falk, one of the great guys in this business, 24 28 on field goal attempts 23 of 23 on point after attempts uh this one comes down to the legs i don't know this one this one's a real toss-up because these two guys are as good as they come folks it is always always fun to go one-on-one

with joe here on these locked on crossovers and this one is going to be a fun matchup on thursday night i know thursday night football gets the stigma of being a real tough game, but this is a regular week for both of these teams. It's Thursday to Thursday. So you've got regular rest. Maybe the days of the week don't align, but the timing aligns in this one. And I think you're going to see some good solid football.

I'm looking forward to this one at Foxborough. Joe, I know you're looking forward to this one as well. Any more parting thoughts before we take our leave of this crossover Thursday here on the Lockdown Podcast Network? Hey, you know it's Bill's Patriots when we close it out by talking about kickers, punters, and returners. So that's the type of game that we're dealing with. We're thinking about everything for this one. Absolutely. We are thinking about everything for this one. And

Joe and I both have the bills taking this one. But folks, we'd love to hear what you have to say. Drop a comment in Locked On Bills page on YouTube or the Locked On Patriots page. Let us know your game predictions. We would love to hear them. And we might even share some in our postgame shows on Friday as well. On behalf of the great Joe Marino of Locked On Bills, you can catch each and every day on the Locked On Podcast Network.

Folks, if you're a Patriots fan, I highly recommend subscribing to this. Joe is one of the most level-headed, even keeled, fair and balanced analysts we have here on Locked On and a great stable of hosts. But Joe is truly amazing and truly remarkable at what he

does. I still try to take my cues from him every day. I haven't even gotten close to that level yet, but you always set the example that I try to follow, my friend, and I appreciate you and everything that you do for Bills Mafia and even keeping us up to date here. We keep our friends close, but our enemies closer here on Locked On Patriots, and you help us do just that.

So follow Joe and make sure that you're subscribed to Locked On Bills. And if you've got a little extra time, I would appreciate it. Subscribe and a follow on Locked On Patriots as well. I'm Mike DeBate. He's Joe Marino. Locked On Patriots, Locked On Bills, crossing the streams. Enjoy the game on Thursday night. Take care, folks.