Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Crossover Thursday: New England Patriots vs, Green Bay Packers in Week 4

Starting point is 00:00:00 You are Locked On Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. I'm Peter Bukowski, host of Locked On Packers with my pal Mike DeBate from Locked On Patriots. And we'd like to thank all of you for making Locked on Packers and Locked on Patriots your first listen every day. As I always say, we hope you like starting your day with us as much as we like starting our day with you.

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Starting point is 00:01:29 Mike, let's get into the fun stuff on a show with two teams that have had a lot of success for a long time. We have two fan bases that have been just sort of spoiled by the success. Patriots fans certainly more than Packers fans in terms of winning titles but these are these are the two premier franchises in terms of winning over the last what 20 years which is which is great the big storyline it seems to me when it comes to New England is what's going on at quarterback with Mac Jones what can you tell us about the latest from Bill Belichick? Because on Wednesday, a little bit of maybe gamesmanship or potentially some breaking health news on the status of Mac

Starting point is 00:02:11 Jones. Absolutely. Well, we did find out a very interesting tidbit, Peter, and this is something that we did not know. None of us knew. Bill Belichick is not a doctor. He did share that with us when we spoke with him prior to practice on Wednesday Bill Belichick in prime prime Bill form without any question and listen I mean nobody expected him to answer any of those questions with any type of degree of accuracy with returns of reading the MRI or giving any type of a diagnosis but Bill was in true to form he is saying that everything is being taken day to day right now interestingly, as we're recording this podcast, of course, the transaction wire has not come out for Wednesday yet, but right now, Mack has yet to be placed on any type of injured

Starting point is 00:02:55 reserve or injured list. So right now, the Patriots are currently taking things day-to-day, but we know that from the MRI on Monday, from the multiple reports that are out there we are dealing with a severe high ankle sprain for Mac Jones that usually incurs multiple weeks missed anywhere from four to eight even ten have been projected I always say virtue lies in the middle so I'd probably split that in terms of the time I expect him to miss on the field but bottom line the New England Patriots if Mac Jones is going to be unavailable one thing Bill did share with us it will be Brian Hoyer under center on Sunday so keep an eye on the injury reports for the next couple of days those will be telltale

Starting point is 00:03:34 but if Mac is unable to go and he was not spotted at practice during the media portion on Wednesday then Hoyer the destroyer is going to be under center for the Patriots. Hoyer the Destroyer. I love it. So the way that I was looking at this, Mike, was like, isn't just the caution, just the prudent play here? This is a first round quarterback, a guy who played really well for you last year, who is not off to the hottest of starts this season understanding all of that and understanding that you want to you keep the confidence high of potentially your franchise quarterback i don't i

Starting point is 00:04:10 don't think there's any questions about him being the franchise quarterback right now he is that guy for the moment why would you risk it why would you put him out there at okay less than 100 is is being uncharitable to everyone who plays football every week. No one is 100% already in week three. But at, let's say, 65% or 70%, it seems to me the prudent play is to say, Brian, get out there, give Mac a couple weeks to heal, and then we'll figure it out moving forward. Yeah, I mean, there's absolutely no good reason why Mac would be out there on Sunday. I mean, a high ankle sprain,

Starting point is 00:04:46 a severe high ankle sprain, depending on the severity of the issue, like we said before, could last multiple weeks, but it doesn't really make him ready for week four against the Green Bay Packers, where you're going into a hostile environment in Lambeau. And I mean that with all due respect to Packers fans. I don't mean hostile in the way some people may think I mean that with all due respect to Packers fans I don't mean hostile in the way some people may think I mean that but it's a very big home uh you know field advantage when you're playing in the cathedral of uh you know NFL stadiums so at this point the New England Patriots right now I think are best suited with going with Brian Hoyer I know there are some Patriots fans that are chirping for Bailey Zappi 137 overall New England fans want to see what they have in this kid but to me there is still that green nature of the way he plays the game and also some issues about him

Starting point is 00:05:30 trying to throw on the run which I think could lend himself into big time problems with this backers defense so at this point you pick what best option is available for you and even if Mac for some reason is not completely medically ruled out of this game, I still don't understand how you don't go with Brian Hoyer as your starter on Sunday. Part of this too has to be about who's on the field, right? I mean, we'll talk about the matchups in this game, but it seems like the offensive line, the skill position players, especially the pass catchers, we're not talking about a super elite group here so you you need your quarterback certainly to be processing at 100 to to win but you also he needs to be able to get push off his back foot to plant on that front foot like

Starting point is 00:06:16 your feet quarterback has played with your arm but it's also played with your feet almost as importantly as what's going on with your arm so So that just seems like Mac Jones, probably not going to play. It's going to be Brian Hoyer. And let's be honest, the difference between Mac Jones at 65, 70% and Brian Hoyer at this point, it's probably not that big, right? The thing that I'm looking at here, Mike, is what's going on with the Packers offensive line, because they come out of a game on Sunday where they rotated something that I for trying to work a player back this was a fascinating way to do it no snap count

Starting point is 00:06:53 it's one drive one drive one drive one drive and David Bakhtiari and Yash Naiman ended up almost perfectly splitting the snaps it was 53-47 in terms of percentage. And they both played pretty well. This is a New England pass rush that does not get a lot of pressure, does not get a lot of individual wins. And part of that is personnel. Part of that is by design. That's just sort of the Bill Belichick way. They are 31st in pass rush win rate on ESPN. So that's a big deal this week. David Bakhtiari apparently came out of the protocols and you have to check in with your injured guys after the game, make sure they're okay. It sounds like he's doing well, but that's not assurances that he's going to play 100% of snaps. So, you know, that is the thing

Starting point is 00:07:46 that I'm trying to keep my eye on. How does he make it through the week? How is he progressing? Because I think if the Packers can protect Aaron Rodgers in this game, it's going to be a long day for New England. Yeah, without any question. And I think you hit the nail right on the head in terms of, you know,

Starting point is 00:08:01 and we'll get into matchups in just a moment, but New England right now has tried to do everything they can to be a good run stopping team. But if that offensive line of the Green Bay Packers gives them difficulty up front, and they're more than capable with the talent they have at that position, it's going to be a very long day for New England because the run is going to have to be their bread and butter if they're going to want to succeed in any type of offensive mode. So this is going to be something that I think is going to be really really good for uh us and for backers fans to watch and i don't know about you but i'm definitely looking forward to this one oh yeah absolutely and and just one one little stat before we we move on here to the matchups i mentioned the

Starting point is 00:08:39 the pass rush win rate they're also 24th right now in run stop win rate. So not doing great rushing the passer, not doing great winning your matchups to try and stop the run. Not a great combination when you have to face an Aaron Rodgers-led offense coming up here, which is reflected in the line, right? We're talking about it's been a line that's been 9.5, 10 all week. So that's just the reality of what we're dealing with here. Absolutely. And whenever you're dealing with a line folks,

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Starting point is 00:09:39 That includes Major League Baseball, MMA, boxing, golf, you name it, they've got a line on it. So head to the website today or use your mobile device to learn more about the trends and the action. BetOnline, where the game starts. Packers, nine and a half point favorites by our friends over at BetOnline, minus 450 on the money line. They are the heaviest favorites of the week, and it is not close, actually. No one else within a field goal in terms of that kind of favor. Part of that is the matchup.

Starting point is 00:10:10 Part of that is that's just the way that some of these games have worked out. The over-under, 40 and a half. So if you thought Packers-Bucks was low scoring, wait until you see Packers-Patriots because not expected to be a lot of points scored in that one. All right, Mike, let's talk about some of these matchups here. When you look at this game and these two teams coming in, what is the matchup where you go, if the Patriots don't do this thing, they can't win? Yeah, it's kind of like if a man can't stand, he can't fight, right, Peter?

Starting point is 00:10:47 Right. You know, I mean, the New England Patriots right now, and I kind of tipped my hand on this in the previous segment, but right now I'm watching their New England offensive running game and seeing if they can get any success against a Green Bay defense that has been dominant in the early going. Whether Mack is available or not, and again, I don't believe he will be, Green Bay is allowing only 113 yards per game on the ground,

Starting point is 00:11:10 just 302 per game overall. But the Packers are allowing almost five yards per carry, and that ranks 25th in the league. If there is an area that the Patriots might be able to exploit, that's it, and they're going to really have to do it using that two-headed monster of Damian Harris and Ramondre Stevenson. They were both very good in the loss to the Ravens, exploit that's it and they're going to really have to do it using that two-headed monster of Damian Harris and Ramondre Stevenson they were both very good in the loss to the Ravens so the New England Patriots have to build upon that uh Stevenson particularly has been pretty adept

Starting point is 00:11:35 at getting yards on the ground and getting big runs when they need to the New England Patriots offensive line has gone back to basics a little bit they're using some of the pulling guards they're using those gap schemes to open up the lanes and that's something that new england is going to have to try to do because you know that that packer secondary is going to be licking their chops at whoever is back there taking snaps under center and trying to utilize the aerial game so to me not going to be easy uh to run against uh this this Packers run defense without any question. You know, Devontae Campbell was very, very good on the inside, you know, of that. Kenny Clark, you know, there's definitely so much that the Packers bring to the table.

Starting point is 00:12:16 And it is a pick your poison when it comes to New England's offensive game plan. But if they're going to get any traction, it has to be on the run game. Yeah, and you'll never believe this, but 25th is going to get any traction has to be on the run game. Yeah. And you'll, you'll never believe this, but 25th is an improvement over where they had been last year and, and improvement over where they had been before this, this Buccaneers game when they allowed 34 yards to Leonard Fournette. What's interesting to me. And, and I think you're, you're right on. And this is, I wrote, I wrote about this for, for the leap,

Starting point is 00:12:41 which is my Packers newsletter and newsletter. I would love for your listeners to subscribe to. And for my listeners absolutely if they don't highly recommend it folks great uh thank you uh that the packers are playing defense the way that they want to play it right now which is from nickel they want to they wanted they drafted quay walker to play with two linebackers on the field and and i do not have to espouse the virtues of that to Bill Belichick because he does not want to get into itty bitty personnel either. He, he wants to have big dudes out there to eat up blocks and take up space. And for the Packers,

Starting point is 00:13:14 it's about trying to do that while maintaining speed. Quay Walker is a 95th percentile speed score athlete. And, and he has made his presence known force to fumble last week kept justin fields out of the end zone on a scramble play against we're talking about a 4-4 quarterback was able to get to the sideline and and keep justin fields from breaking the plane with that pylon um and and he has been a key for them um they wanted they want to play two high safeties and say we can stop the run with six. If they can,

Starting point is 00:13:45 then I just don't know what you do if you're the Patriots, because you're not going to be able to push the ball down the field. You probably can't do that anyway, just given the personnel restrictions and the quarterback situation. So it's going to have to be Damian Harris and Ramondre Stevenson. And I think that that is going to be the way that you do it. Basically take the approach from the Bills game that was played in the in the wind tunnel last year. Right. Where it's just like here are here are every gap and power run we can think of with the heaviest people on the field we can find and try and try and make the whole plane out of Damian Harris. Like, I think that's essentially what, what they have to do. What's interesting to me, Mike, and I didn't realize this quite until I saw it because I didn't think Baltimore looked that great last week running the ball. But if you look at the, the rush EPA numbers,

Starting point is 00:14:38 the Patriots have the 31st defense in EPA per rush allowed. Absolutely. That is a problem. They are 31st in success rate. Almost 51% of runs against the Patriots have been successful runs. Yeah. If they can't stop Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, it is going to get over early at Lambeau Field on Sunday. And that's just the reality

Starting point is 00:15:03 because the only way to stop this offense is to stop the ground game because everything comes off of that. And if you're keeping the Packers in advantageous down and distances, I just, I don't know what you're supposed to do if you're Bill Belichick. Now, this is fascinating.

Starting point is 00:15:18 And I want to ask you about this. We talked about this a little bit off pod last night when we were doing our hit for Locked On Sports today. Right. The thing that Bill Belichick wants to do is make you play left-handed, right? He wants to take away the thing that you are best at and make you do the thing that you are struggling at. So when he watches the Tampa Bay tape, is he going to try and make this team say, okay,

Starting point is 00:15:42 we are a, we're going to play cover one all day, single high, load the box. You are not going to run the ball on us. I promise. And if you want to throw the ball over our heads, I dare you. I dare you, Aaron Rodgers. I dare you that that was kind of Todd Bull's approach and it worked. I wonder if that's going to be Bill, Bill Belichick's approach this week. If you had to guess what would your guess be and i know this is always dangerous because that man is he just like he is he forgot more about football last night in his sleep than you and i like would ever know about football but if you had to sort of peer inside the mind there what do you think is going to be

Starting point is 00:16:20 the defensive approach in this game yeah i mean you hit the nail on the head trying to predict what bill belichick is going to do is trying to predict the actions approach in this game. Yeah, I mean, you hit the nail on the head. Trying to predict what Bill Belichick is going to do is trying to predict the actions of the Oracle of the Crystal Sea. It's just not possible. You're going to see something that you don't expect. But if I'm Bill Belichick, and this sounds so ludicrous for me to actually say out loud, the poison that you pick in this game is trying to let Aaron Rodgers beat you. And I know that is a very dangerous game and you're

Starting point is 00:16:45 opening yourself to a potential offensive onslaught because when Aaron is on his game there's nobody better and that's the situation that the Patriots right now have to go through you hit the nail on the head just a moment ago Peter when you said that both Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon have been outstanding averaging almost seven yards per carry a lot of that production coming over the course of the last couple of games. So they're building their momentum, whereas the Patriots' run defense is waning. You're absolutely right. The Packers averaging 128 yards per game on the ground. New England's run defense reeling after that performance against the Ravens last week.

Starting point is 00:17:21 4.9 yards per carry based on those numbers. You definitely know that the Packers are going to want to see a steady diet of Jones and Dillon running the football. So defensively, Patriots are going to have to stack the box. They're going to have to try to keep that running game of the Green Bay Packers from getting on track because if they don't, it's going to be an extremely long day. On the other hand, when you look at Aaron Rodgers and you look at the success that he's had with these past catchers, they're going to try to take a page out of the Todd Bowles handbook from week one. You know that life hasn't been as smooth as Aaron would like it without Devontae Adams.

Starting point is 00:17:58 He's starting to get into a little bit of a rhythm with Romeo Dobbs. Christian Watson is a rookie there. Randall Cobb Alan Lazard all very capable receivers but at the same time that right now may be your best bet if you're in New England because as shaky as the secondary was supposed to be coming into this season Jonathan Jones has played relatively well at the outside perimeter position if you get a solid game from Jalen Mills who is banged up with a hamstring injury, folks. So that's another one to watch. If these two guys are healthy and capable of hanging with their targets,

Starting point is 00:18:30 it could make life a little bit difficult to play the aerial game that I know Green Bay would love to be able to employ. So to me, it really is. It's picking your poison on the running game, trying to stop that, but that is not going to be an easy task for the new England Patriots no it's not and and you mentioned the the um cornerback part of this the Packers if this were Devontae Adams you'd say okay well you know maybe Bill Belichick will do the thing that he's done in the past and put his second best cornerback over there with safety help and then put his top corner on that was like the Belichick MO for years. Right. But when you don't have that go to guy, then how do you how do you focus your resources? And so one of the things that I said to you is I'm sort of fascinated to see where Bill Belichick thinks the strengths of this team are like it will be the ultimate validation for someone like Romeo Dobbs if we're seeing Belichick send help to his corner to that side and I'm so this is just one of those things that I am absolutely fascinated to see um and and another injury in the secondary um what's the situation with Kyle Duggar right now because

Starting point is 00:19:35 um there was some some question about what's going on with him there he did practice uh Kyle right now is I believe working his way back in at the time that we're recording this folks wednesday's injury report was unavailable to me so i don't have his exact status but he was present so we'll take a look and see what is going on with kyle duggar we know the knee injury kept him out of action last week the feeling around the locker room the feeling around new england was that it was precautionary more than a situation where it was an absolute must that he wasn't able to go. Now, that's not saying that Kyle Duggar was, you know, taking it easy and just, you know,

Starting point is 00:20:11 resting or for anything. He was not capable of playing in that game. But my feeling is that if it were a playoff game, it might have been a little bit of a different story. But again, that's just information that I have not confirmed or not making a report there. That's going to be a big situation for the Patriots as well, because we saw Mark Andrews absolutely eat up that defensive backfield.

Starting point is 00:20:32 That's typically pretty good at defending tight ends because of Kyle Duggar. If not, the Packers have four capable players of playing the tight end position that could make life very difficult for their defense. That's a big one to watch as well, Peter. Yeah, get your big Bob Tunyon shares in Daily Fantasy. Start them in Fantasy if you've got them. So just something to keep an eye on there. And I do want to say before we get to our last segment here,

Starting point is 00:20:59 for your listeners, Jair Alexander, we're considered day-to-day right now. And this is my listeners too, because Matt LaFleur just told us that. And he said, you know, I'm always concerned about my injured players, but Jair is day-to-day. So it doesn't seem to be the reports from Tom Pelissero right away where this is not a long-term injury, but that doesn't mean he's going to play Sunday.

Starting point is 00:21:21 That doesn't mean he's going to play next week in London. That doesn't mean he's going to play Sunday. That doesn't mean he's going to play next week in London. That doesn't mean he's going to play against the Jets the week after that. So just something that we need to keep our eyes on here moving forward. And speaking of keeping our eyes open, my listeners have heard this story before, Mike, yours haven't. But before I got married, my wife lost her engagement ring and she didn't lose the engagement ring. She lost the diamond in the ring. The diamond sheared off because the prongs broke in a public bathroom. This happened.

Starting point is 00:21:58 And she came back an hour later and the diamond was there. She found it on the floor and we sent it to our jeweler and they were able to repair it. But imagine if she hadn't found it. Imagine if she had lost this symbol of our love, right? You've seen the videos of people doing stupid stuff on boats. Don't propose on boats. Come on, just stop doing it. Why are you doing it? On docks, why are you doing that? I don't understand it. But if you want to do it, if you have to do it, or even if you don't, even if you're a smart person and you propose on solid ground, on terra firma, you should have your fine

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Starting point is 00:23:13 like my wife was. Thank God she found it. Bright.co forward slash locked on. Okay, we have final predictions here. Mike, why don't you go first on what you think is going to happen on Sunday, the late afternoon window on CBS? Well, again, if the New England Patriots want to have any success against the Green Bay Packers, they're going to have to try to not only stop the run,

Starting point is 00:23:38 but they're also going to have to try to establish the run on offense. Either of these tasks is daunting against the team that is playing very well on both sides of the ball. The likelihood is that Brian Hoyer gets the start in place of Mac Jones. Even with Mac in the lineup, this was going to be a very tough matchup for the New England Patriots, but with a career backup that is, I think, going to be a little more capable than people are giving him credit for, I still think it's going to be very tough for New England to establish their game plan. There's going to be a little bit of uncertainty and there's going to be a lot of dearth of ability to be able to contend with what Green Bay does well on both sides of the ball. Pains me to say this because this was a lot further than my initial

Starting point is 00:24:20 thoughts on this matchup. I believed Mac to be healthy a couple of weeks ago and this one circled on my calendar. I think ultimately New England bows to the hometown team this week and I think they do so by a final score of 27-14. Right in the range that I was thinking of. I go into these

Starting point is 00:24:39 and we're buddies so I try and be as respectful as I can be in these situations. And I sometimes feel bad if it's a, if it's kind of a lopsided thing, if I'm going to say a double digit score, I just sort of like, no, I'm going to say this to this man's face right now. But that is like exactly the number I was thinking. I was thinking 27, 13.

Starting point is 00:25:00 But just because I, you know, a touchdown and a pair of field goals, maybe something like that. But I, you know, I can see a pair of field goals, maybe something like that. But I, you know, I can see maybe even a late touchdown making this a little bit more aesthetically pleasing than it might otherwise be. I just don't see how they're going to score more points than Tom Brady against this defense at home. That's not in the heat.

Starting point is 00:25:20 And I just, I think the Packers get right a little bit on offense with this team and their issue stopping the run. It's just, it's going to was playing at, you know, all pro MVP kind of levels for a half. And then Todd Bowles happened. Now, can Bill Belichick do the same kind of thing? Is he that level of coach? Absolutely, yes, he is.

Starting point is 00:25:55 But he doesn't have Shaq Barrett or Devin White or Levante David or Anton Winfield Jr. There's just, I think, unfortunately, a talent difference. Like Matthew Judon is a really nice player. I think Christian Barmore has a lot of talent. And, you know, McCourty is just like one of the classiest guys in the league, always has been, and is a great player. I just don't think they have the horses on the defensive side of the ball. So that is where we are. 27, yeah, 27, 13, 28, maybe just for sake of difference, I'll say four touchdowns, 28 to 13.

Starting point is 00:26:28 My final prediction, the Packers win and cover. Give me, just so I have it, give me the three high points. This game comes down to these pair of things for you. From a Patriots perspective or just in general are we talking? All right, if we're talking from a Patriots perspective or just in general are we talking all right if we're talking from a Patriots perspective if you see the name Ramond Ray Stevenson up on the board an awful lot gaining yardage it might mean that the Patriots are able to make this closer again it's going to be tough but this is a kid that can change the complexity of the offense the other thing that

Starting point is 00:26:59 I think I'm looking for if I'm a New England Patriots fan on the offensive side of the board Hunter Henry John Smith committed an awful lot of money to these guys Patriots have to get 12-man personnel involved not just from a blocking scheme but they have to get it involved from a pass catching scheme they need to be targets in the red zone maybe Brian Hoyer looks for these guys as a veteran and going back to some of that old school 12-man personnel that the New England Patriots used to run under Josh McDaniels and lastly lastly, from a defensive standpoint, you're absolutely right. You hit the nail on the head. Matthew Judon, Christian Barmore working in tandem. If Barmore can get the double team from the offensive line, that frees up Matthew Judon. We saw that happen

Starting point is 00:27:39 a little bit on Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens, And Judon was able to get home at one point against Lamar Jackson. Can he do so on Sunday? Those three high points could switch our predictions a little bit. But again, it's a daunting task for New England going in there. I'm being the eternal optimist here and hoping that at least one of these can come true. What's interesting is I think the sort of mirror image of this is true for Green Bay if they can stop the run effectively it's going to be really hard if Green Bay stops the run effectively it's just going to be so hard for the Patriots to move the ball they just don't have the receivers you hope that Joe Barry does not play passive against the backup quarterback this was this

Starting point is 00:28:18 was something that that we haven't talked about yet Mike and and for your listeners something that they may not have known happened last year for the Packers. They were excellent against the primetime QBs, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford. It was the weeks that they played Baker Mayfield and Tyler Huntley that they let up a little bit. They played a little bit passive. They played a lot of two shell and said, if you want to run, run, we're not going to give you the big play. If they do that this week, that's going to be playing right into the Patriots hands. And this is going to be a much closer game than it probably should be now against the

Starting point is 00:28:50 bears in week two, Joe Barry said, we're not doing that. Here's, here's a lot more cover one. Here's a lot more eight guys in the box. And we're going to commit to stopping the run. Another great stat is you mentioned some of the running game issues that the Packers have had. They gave up 180 yards rushing to the Bears in week two. That seems like a lot, right? 104 of those yards.

Starting point is 00:29:13 Yes, 104 of them came on one drive. That featured a sack and a false start penalty. When the game was out of reach, the Packers were in nickel. The Bears stayed in 12 and ran the ball down the field. That game was over. So it's just one of those things where like sometimes the numbers can be misleading. But again, the Packers need to run the ball or they need to stop the run. And then if they run the ball, they're going to be effective because this secondary and pass rush, I just don't see them being able to be effective.

Starting point is 00:29:43 Even the Buccaneers pass rush was not particularly effective against Aaron Rodgers. So I think that's this game comes down to the trenches and the Packers are just better in the trenches right now. And that ends up being the difference. Thanks again to everyone who makes locked on Packers and locked on Patriots their first listen every day. Again, we hope you like starting your day with us as much as we like starting our day with you.

Starting point is 00:30:07 I will be back on Friday with our live stream. We push the time of that to 8 PM Eastern time. And, and locked on Patriots is going to be here whenever you need them. I know Mike has got you. Thanks to everyone for being another part of a part of another locked on NFL cross. We're brought to you by our friends at PrizePix.

Starting point is 00:30:27 We'll see you later.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Crossover Thursday: New England Patriots vs, Green Bay Packers in Week 4

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