Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Crossover Thursday: New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings on Thanksgiving Night

Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to Crossover Thursday, everybody. Luke Braun of Locked On Vikings here. Thank you and hello to Patriots fans here with Mike DeBate of Locked On Patriots. And welcome, welcome, welcome to another crossover on the Locked On Podcast Network. Mike, how's it going, man? It's going great, Luke. Thanks so much for having me today. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone out there listening on this Thanksgiving day.

Starting point is 00:00:35 No days off in Foxborough. That was a slogan up here a few years ago. Bill Belichick tried to enact that. We've adopted that here on the Locked On Podcast Network crossovers. But no, all kidding aside, it is definitely great to be here. And it's great to be in action on Thanksgiving Day. It's been 10 years since the Patriots have had a Thanksgiving Day or night matchup. And this is one I know Patriots fans have been looking forward to for a long time.

Starting point is 00:00:59 Awesome. Awesome. Today's episode, as all crossovers are, are brought to you by prize picks. It's daily fantasy made easy, and it's so much fun. Instead of joining a pool of a thousand different people, just you against the house. Just if you think your favorite players can beat their prize picks projection,

Starting point is 00:01:17 you can get in on that new time. Join joiners can get a 100% match up to $100 if they use promo code LOCKEDON at prizepix.com or on the PrizePix app. So here on Crossover Thursday, we usually start with the biggest storyline surrounding each team. And I feel like for both these teams, maybe just this is part of it being on a short week.

Starting point is 00:01:43 It's more about what happened last week and can they like subvert that or keep it going as it were with like the Patriots defense um but you know the Vikings are coming off this horrific blowout and it's the for the Vikings the story is can they bounce back or did they just get exposed as the frauds they are and they'll never win another game again like i've seen a lot of people say that so i don't know uh we're sort of at this crossroads this very like we're like floating through space in this very unknown moment where we don't know if the vikings are know, they deserve to be eight and two or not. Maybe they're more like a three and five team that just got a little lucky

Starting point is 00:02:29 or whatever, and they're never going to win another game again. But for the Patriots coming off, like what is the vibe in Foxborough coming off of that 10 to three win against the Jets? Super defensive, like unbelievably defensive struggle and the punt return touchdown is the only score. Well, right now, I mean, it's an era of good feelings for Marcus Jones. No question about it. He is the toast of the town in Foxborough. And for good reason, when you walk off the game, essentially, I know there was still time left on the clock, but an 84 yard punt return to win it definitely is going to endear you to the fan base.

Starting point is 00:03:05 So Jones continues to be someone that Patriots fans will be watching closely in this game, but ultimately there is still that prevailing undercurrent of worry regarding the offense. Only three points put on the board by the Patriots offense, and technically you may even take those off the board because it came on a 24 yard field goal from Nick Fulks. So the Patriots offense in the red zone, especially they crossed into Jets territory 11 times during this game. And only five of them were they able to, to actually advance past Jets territory and try to make a move for the red zone. And none of those ended up really working out in any point.

Starting point is 00:03:46 So right now the big story for New England is if that offense is going to rebound at all, it's the health of center and team captain David Andrews. Suffered what looked like a serious thigh injury on Sunday against the Jets. Left the game. After the game, a lot of reports came out that he might even, in fact, be done for the season, and that's pretty detrimental for New England. He has a tremendous impact on both run blocking and pass protection. But he channeled his inner Mark Twain yesterday, I should say on Tuesday, when he remained out on the practice field and he came back. So his reports of his demise are greatly exaggerated. Davidrews really showing a lot

Starting point is 00:04:26 of toughness a lot of uh you know fortitude by being out there at the time we're recording this still a tad too early to determine whether or not he's going to be active on thursday my guess is he still probably is going to need one game rest but the fact of the matter that he was out there is really acting as i think a spiritual lift and maybe an emotional lift for this team as well. And they need it, especially if he's going to be out of the lineup. Just to give you a little example as to what the Patriots offense looks like without David Andrews as opposed to with Luke. Their offense, when David Andrews missed two games in concussion protocol after the hit he sustained from Mike Pennell of the Bears in week seven. Their offensive efficiency plummeted to.03 expected points added to.25 EPA. So you look at that, that's a significant drop for the New England Patriots without him in the lineup.

Starting point is 00:05:17 Mac Jones pressured on 39.3% of his dropbacks without David Andrews in the lineup, only 28.2% when he was in the lineup. So you look at that, and that absence definitely has an impact. And even on the running game, the Pats running game was averaging 4.7 yards per rush with Andrews. That dropped to a total of 3.6 without him. So you can see it affects all aspects, not just Mack. That's how vital this guy is. And if he's not able to go the vikings

Starting point is 00:05:46 definitely are going to want to capitalize on that to me that's the biggest story coming out of new england right now so i could definitely see that being the thing we talk about after the game because um the vikings have seen a couple of backup centers this year we've been a little lucky that way that we've happened to catch teams while their starting centers are hurt and zadaria smith in particular his superpower and he discovered this in a random like fire zone blitz in baltimore way back when before he even went to green bay and then green bay really just made it his identity is um beating interior offensive linemen one-on-one. If you can get Z'Darrius Smith on a guard one-on-one, he will crush that dude. He's one of the best in the league at that.

Starting point is 00:06:33 And against Arizona and Washington, two of the best defensive games the Vikings have had been a backup center, and Z'Darrius Smith has found that backup center all day long. So if the Patriots have to go with, I don't know who your backup center and zedaria smith has found that backup center all day long so if uh if if the patriots have to go with i don't know who your backup center is um it's patriots have to go with that that guy's probably going to draw zedaria smith all day and every pass rush the vikings won't blitz all day they'll do all four-man pass rushes and those four-man pass rushes will be

Starting point is 00:07:03 designed to get zedaria sm Smith one-on-one with the center and that's going to be the focal point and that guy's going to have to hold up like that's probably going to be a huge part of what happens on that side of the ball um I was talking about it on my show yesterday I am a little worried about this run game with Ramondre Stevenson and how he has been surging. I mean, is this guy the next big thing in New England? Is this running game the new identity of the New England Patriots? Well, up until a few games ago, I would have said definitely yes. Ramondre Stevenson right now looks like one of the best dual threat options that the Patriots have. He's not just the depth of being able to run the football, but also he led all receivers last game against the Jets, you know, with catching the ball out of the

Starting point is 00:07:49 backfield. So Stevenson is definitely someone, if you're a Minnesota Vikings fan, you want to keep an eye on. You want to try to keep him in check at all costs. But the one thing that the Patriots right now have been held in check with is trying to get the running game going on the ground using it as a significant complement to the passing game. Ramondre was limited to only 26 yards on 15 carries against the Jets very aggressive front they made sure that they were going to take him out of the game and that's exactly what they did. Damian Harris still has the capable the capability excuse me of being a feature back he was the Patriots feature back for the last couple of seasons. Eight carries, 65 yards, so a little bit better of an output for Damian Harris on Sunday.

Starting point is 00:08:32 But even with a couple of explosive plays that Damian put on the field, Patriots, they only managed 99 yards on 26 carries for 3.8 yard average on Sunday. That's not going to be able to sustain them for much longer if they really want to lean on this running game. If Andrews, again, is going to be out of the lineup and also Isaiah Wynn, left tackle, starting left tackle, right tackle. He's kind of been all over the place this season. He struggled, but he's still a pro level, you know, capable of offensive lineman that

Starting point is 00:09:03 can really, I think, be a better asset in the run game than in pass protection. He's potentially out with a foot injury in this game. If both of those guys go down, all of a sudden you're talking about the Vikings being able to really contain what has become an ordinary running game in the last few weeks for the New England Patriots, especially with a backup center like James Ferenc, who will be their center if David Andrews can't go. He's had a real problem with the four-man rush and some difficulty in run blocking as well. Yeah, the Vikings run defense has given up some of the most production in the

Starting point is 00:09:37 league. Some of that is by design, that they keep the box light, they keep everything spread out because the safety's never in the box. They want to make sure they don't get beat over the top. And they are okay if you run the ball a little more on them. But some of that has been like the way the Cowboys ran the ball on them was embarrassing. So some of it is just like, you know, even if you're taking some, that's it's unacceptable. But I want to talk about the other side of the ball, particularly some of the matchups. I want to hear about what the Patriots are going to do against Justin Jefferson, and I'm sure you have similar questions for me. So we will get into that in just a moment. But first, a word from our sponsor, BetterHelp. This show is sponsored by BetterHelp Therapy Online. And folks, we all live in complex times,

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Starting point is 00:11:44 As always, for your second listen, check out Locked On Sports today. World Cup's going on. Of course, basketball, hockey season in full swing and lots of NFL news as well. To talk about Unlocked On Sports today, covering all sports, the whole wide world of them with a half hour or less every single weekday,

Starting point is 00:12:01 just like this show. And once again, thank you to Locked On Vikings and Locked On Patriots fans for listening to us every single weekday just like this show uh and once again thank you to lockdown vikings and lockdown patriots fans for listening to us break down this thursday night thanksgiving night game matchup primetime purple going on with uh the minnesota vikings and new england patriots so let me just get right into the thing i teased justin jefferson totally shut down against the cowboys mostly because the vikings couldn't get the ball and and watching the tape of that game justin jefferson was open all day i don't think the cowboys secondary did a very good job

Starting point is 00:12:36 of containing him um they just couldn't protect kurt cousins at all he took seven sacks he was under pressure all day and it was all very, the offensive line had a day to forget. Absolutely. So Bill Belichick is famous for taking away your number one option. And usually when that's a wide receiver, the way I'm familiar with it, and correct me if I'm wrong here, is that he'll take like the second cornerback and put him on your best player and then put a safety over the top of that. So he'll bracket your best guy with CB2 and a safety, and then CB1 will guard your second best guy. And that's the way he did. Is that still the way Belichick works or have things evolved over time? Because that's a pretty old

Starting point is 00:13:21 opinion that I have. No, that's actually pretty well accurate. And I think that's what you're going to see. The only thing that you might see and that the Patriots have been doing a little differently this year is mixing up their coverage between CB one and CB two, which means that at various points throughout the game, you might see Jonathan Jones covering Justin Jefferson because of Jonathan Jones's speed. He has a little bit of a better ability to be able to hang with someone with Justin's abilities. And even that is a daunting task. I mean, other than praying to be able to contain him, this is probably what Bill Belichick I think is going to do, but you might see Jalen Mills as well if he needs to go into some zone coverages as well, because that's where Jalen really excels. And really, I think is somebody that could be a a an option here as well with the safety that's

Starting point is 00:14:05 going to be determined by not only health but also the ability of TJ Hawkinson to be a factor in this game as well if the Patriots feel that they can contain Hawkinson with a combination of guys like Devin McCourty Adrian Phillips and maybe even a Jabril Peppers playing a uh enforcer type role then you're going to see Kyleyle duggar come out and play and be the guy and the safety that might give an additional uh bit of help to trying to contain justin jefferson this would be extremely interesting luke without any question because the patriots were on the clock in 2020 when justin was coming out of the nfl draft the vikings had the 22nd pick and they picked

Starting point is 00:14:46 Justin Jefferson. New England Patriots immediately traded down to the number 37 pick in the second round and they selected Kyle Duggar. Yesterday, Bill Belichick played very coy about what his plans were with that 23rd pick if Minnesota went in a different direction. So this is something that I think a lot of Patriots fans are going to be looking at, but what might've been with Justin Jefferson, obviously is something that is fun to think about, but it did not happen that way. This is an opportunity for Kyle Duggar to show that, Hey, you know what? I can rise to prominence on a national stage. He's facing a daunting task facing one of the best, arguably the best wide receiver in the game right now. That's going to be very, very interesting. And that's something I'm going to have my sharp eye

Starting point is 00:15:28 on as well. So if the Patriots are to have success, it, my opinion, it's going to be a combination of maybe Mills and Duggar, but don't be surprised if Jonathan Jones gets some looks as well because of the speed factor that's involved. Okay. So yeah, a lot of team effort there. I will say for as good as justin jefferson is at beating guys on routes one-on-one and he's phenomenal at it he might be better against zone and that's like when he was coming out one of the biggest like pluses on his scouting report was how good and natural he was at finding the holes in zones and whenever you have him on a search route or on something where the instruction is to split a guy or to find space, he was always really, really, really good at that.

Starting point is 00:16:07 Just like spatial awareness. The best success anybody's had is probably Philadelphia against Justin Jefferson, where they had somebody playing press man underneath and then capping him over the top, which sounds like probably what the coverages will be with New England so I'm curious to see if the Vikings have have better answers to it this time um but let me flip it over to you what matchups are there in this game that you're looking forward to or maybe not looking forward to well I think it's both simultaneous I'm looking forward to seeing how Mac Jones is going to be able to handle the pressure that you know Minnesota is going to be dying to put on him. Mac Jones had an average of anywhere between 2.1 and 2.8 seconds to get the ball out of his hands against the Jets on Sunday, and really it's been like this since his return from the high ankle sprain. He is under enormous pressure every single time he drops back, and this is something that the teams that have the ability to do it will continuously do. And you mentioned Zedarius

Starting point is 00:17:09 Smith in the previous segment, nine and a half sacks, you know, he's looking to pin his ears back, get after the quarterback and win those one-on-one matchups, especially if James Ferentz is going to be the center. And even if he's not, David Andrews is probably not a hundred percent at this point. So Smith is looking at this. I know he's got his David Andrews is probably not 100% at this point. So Smith is looking at this. I know he's got his own injury. Yeah, I know his injury history right now. I know he's watching an injury.

Starting point is 00:17:34 He showed up on the report the last couple of days. But Smith is someone I guarantee you Bill Belichick is looking at and saying he cannot beat us. But it's one thing to know it's coming. It's another thing to stop it. And if the Patriots have the ability to at least contain Zedarius, it gives Mac Jones an extra half a second, an extra second, to be able to get the ball out, and that's where he can make things happen. I think New England is going to try to go play action heavy in this game.

Starting point is 00:17:57 I think they'll maybe go no huddle at times, try to up-tempo what they're trying to do to try to get into a rhythm. It may not be the smartest way to attack Minnesota's defense, but it may be the best way for the Patriots to try to find some rhythm. That's something they've desperately lacked. And if they continue to sputter in that case, Minnesota is adept on both sides of the ball enough to be able to take advantage of it and make the Patriots pay for it. So speaking of both sides of the ball, we should probably talk

Starting point is 00:18:25 about the other side of pressure because the Vikings had a moment giving up a lot of pressure 63% pressure against the Cowboys. I don't know if you saw the stat, but for reference that famous Pat Mahomes Super Bowl against the Bucks where he felt like he was under pressure all day and he couldn't get anything going

Starting point is 00:18:42 was 37%. We did 63%. It's awful. And you got matthew judon over there so matthew judon by the way no christian derisaw in this game the stud breakout left tackle has a concussion he won't play um that's blake brandel is going to be your backup go ahead and google him um. Matthew Judon, is he going to go up against the backup tackle or is the move to put Matthew Judon elsewhere, put somebody else against the backup tackle and hope that they slide all of the protections toward Matthew Judon? Don't give the young kid help. What is going to be the plan with Judon and Brandel and the way the Vikings line has been struggling? Well, the way things have been going for the Patriots so far is they've been having Judon

Starting point is 00:19:27 basically take on the mismatch, but that could change in this game, considering the fact that Dietrich Weiss has become a formidable pass rusher in his own right and someone that can take that mismatch if Matthew Judon is better off taking the other side or maybe even helping out in the middle, trying to facilitate the run game. He's been phenomenal, and he will be their number one pass rusher. There's no question about it. The guy leads the league with 13 sacks. But at the same time, he does have at least a little bit of help on the defensive side of the ball that he didn't have last year. Judon was basically a one-man show.

Starting point is 00:20:02 And in the second half of the season, when other guys were not drawing the double team, they were double teaming Matthew Judon was basically a one-man show and in the second half of the season when other guys were not drawing the double team they were double teaming uh Matthew Judon with the Patriots now they need to have or opposing defenses need to or opposing offenses I should say need to have someone dedicated to being able to keep an eye on Wise because he's capable of shaking free as well so look for those guys to work in tandem if wise is drawing the double team that's going to mean bad things for kirk cousins unfortunately because matthew judon is going to be able to win those battles and without darasaw in the lineup it's only going to make his result even stronger but if wise is having difficulty you know getting the double team or if the uh the vikings are adept at being able to control and keep maybe one guy on him and keep him in check,

Starting point is 00:20:47 then Judon's going to have difficulty getting into his rhythm and getting into his game. So this is going to be an interesting way for the Patriots to try to make something happen on the defensive side of the ball. Their front's been very good. Lawrence Guy, Devon Godchow have played at a top level without Christian Barmore in the lineup. Their defensive tackle, who is on injured reserve right now, second-year guy out of Alabama, big hopes for him this year. Hasn't really panned out, but the Patriots have been able to move forward without losing a beat because of guys like Dietrich Wise, Godchow, and especially Lawrence Guy. So they're going to have to come up big in this game for the Patriots defense to have their best game on Thursday night.

Starting point is 00:21:26 That I think is the way the Patriots stop the offense. Like if we come out of this going, why did the Vikings score, you know, nine points? It's probably some combination of all of those names. However, the over under for this game last I looked at bet online was 41 and a half. The spread last I looked at bet online was Vikings by a half the spread last i looked at bet online was vikings by two and a half so if you want to hit those or any number of profits you can go to what i just said bet online.net it's your one-stop shop for all things odds news and scores go bet on all of the thanksgiving games i do it every year uh when i'm with my dad we all we'll do a bet on every game so we've got something to root for if the viking if we're not rooting for the vikings themselves uh very fun stuff but you can also bet on much more than just

Starting point is 00:22:09 football basketball hockey world cup um all sorts of other wacky stuff explore the fight the site there's all kinds of fun stuff ufc as well like any mma stuff like that going on you can find all of that at betonline.net you can even bet right in the middle of a game or event if it's halftime you think the chiefs are going to make a comeback you can make that bet and i use that example because i have done that several times and let me tell you can recommend uh betonline.net where the game starts all right folks here is a sports analogy for you it might be thanksgiving day you're expecting some food analogies here but let's keep it focused on sports and tonight's game and when it comes to

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Starting point is 00:23:54 when you sign up for an interactive monitoring plan and get your first month free. Visit simplisafe.com slash locked on NFL to learn more. There's no safe like Simply Safe. Mike, I'm going to kick this to you first with predictions. It's Crossover Thursday, LockedOn Podcast Network. It is time to actually call this game.

Starting point is 00:24:14 And of course, you know, a score prediction is part of it if you want. I don't really like score predictions, but we'll do them. But what I also want to put out there is what is the headline on the uh on on friday morning after this game so i want your score i want you to tell me what you think will happen in the game but i also want you to tell me what we're all talking about what is the story of this

Starting point is 00:24:37 game ultimately uh that's a good question um it's it's Thanksgiving. It's the home, you know, type of atmosphere right now. I'm going to be a homer for a minute over here. My headline on Friday morning after the Thanksgiving night matchup is going to be the Patriots defense showing up big. I think on this Thanksgiving night matchup, Matthew Judon, you mentioned him a lot in the previous segment. I did as well. 13 sacks leading the league. This guy has been a warrior all over the field, and it's not just his ability to pursue the quarterback. It's keeping the rest of the defense in line, helping out in the middle when it comes to run back protection schemes. This is a situation where it's a big stage, and I think he can perform relatively well. And the reason why I feel

Starting point is 00:25:24 confident about Judon's ability to have a big game is the fact that Christian D'Arisau is not going to be suiting up for this game that changes the complexity of the way that this Minnesota Vikings offensive line is going to be able to protect Kirk Cousins I think Minnesota has a tremendous amount of talent on the offensive side of the ball they can play play through it, but at the end of the day, I think Judon is going to be able to do just enough to keep them off balance in what I look for in a close game. So I don't think this is going to be a huge high-scoring game for both teams. It's a short week.

Starting point is 00:25:55 Thursday night games usually are never a pretty sight. I'm going with the Patriots in this one by a final of 17-14. Yeah, I think this is going to be low-scoring, folks, and I think the reason for that is going to be the Patriots in this one by a final of 17 to 14 yeah I think this is going to be low scoring folks and I think the reason for that is going to be the Patriots defense getting one more key stop than what the Vikings are going to be able to put out but this is going to be a good game between two very good teams yeah I don't think that this will be a blowout either way um I I super don't expect that the lines that I said the bet online lines minus 2.5, 41 and a half would imply like a 22 to 19 Vikings victory.

Starting point is 00:26:32 Something like that. I am probably calling the under, I'm going to say it's going to be something like 20 to 16 or something like that. I'm also going to be a Homer though, because I think the story for this one is bounce back game. That's, that's what'm also going to be a homer though because i think the story for this one is bounce back game that's that's what it feels like to me the the way that blowout in against dallas manifested itself made the team look a lot worse than they played now i don't

Starting point is 00:26:56 think they played well certainly not well enough to win or anything like that but 40 to 3 oversells it and i think a lot of people are looking like haha i knew it the vikings just aren't very good at all um but it really was one group that really sunk them all the way down and it was the offensive line that one group really broke everything else um from a complementary football standpoint and even without derisaw part of what i think got the vikings goat there was that derisaw went down in the middle of the game like after two drives so they had blake brandel out there and they had not prepared to have blake brandel out there the vikings do something really special with their

Starting point is 00:27:33 protections with christian derisaw they split him out wide a lot more they have him um they slide protections away from him they really rely on derisaw to help everybody else out a lot more um the problem with that is when he goes out you now have a backup with like the world on his shoulders like atlas the things start to fall apart and they had to adapt to protections that don't have that right can't you can't just put the whole world on Blake Brandel. But they couldn't adapt. My speculation is that they called a bunch of protections that they didn't practice throughout the week. And a lot of mistakes got made.

Starting point is 00:28:14 A lot of oversets. A lot of bad splits. Sometimes people just straight up blocking the wrong dude. Protection busts. All that stuff's happened. Now that they can prepare for it, I don't think it's going to be as big of a problem. Still a weakness, right? Still something for the patriots to exploit but but i am seeing bounce back game that's going to be the deal so um you know what i'm going to say

Starting point is 00:28:34 the under hits vikings cover the spread but i think also that the vikings can put a lot of pressure on mac jones and keep the patriots the sticks. And I think whatever you can do with the run game is not going to be enough when it's third and 10. So I'm going to be a Homer about it to 20 to 10 Vikings go by. Interesting. And I think I'm glad about what you said about a blowout because I don't think it's going to go that way. If this one does migrate into a blowout though i absolutely know that that would favor or that at least i believe that would favor the minnesota vikings the new england patriots are not built right right now at this stage to blow teams out in that in that fashion so if this one gets ugly in a hurry folks you know that minnesota is probably getting up big yeah and i think if the

Starting point is 00:29:21 patriots do win that we're talking time of possession a lot and mandary stevenson went for you know 120 yards and it's the thing where the the they held the ball the whole third quarter that kind of thing um the vikings are prone to third quarter meltdowns they've been horrific in the third quarter and like pretty good and on the other quarters so if uh the vikings do get up to a lead and patriots fans are looking for some hope at halftime just know that the vikings always fall apart in the third quarter. For Mike Devate, I am Luke Braun. Thank you all so much for listening to this crossover Thursday. Hope you all enjoy the game.

Starting point is 00:29:54 I will see you all Friday morning. I don't know if Mike is planning to do anything. I will be as well. All right, great. So we will see you guys all Friday morning to recap whatever goes on in this game. Thank you all so much once Once again, listening to Crossover Thursday brought to you by PrizePix on the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Crossover Thursday: New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings on Thanksgiving Night

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